Moving From Data to Decisions

Sharon Gulick, Pat Curry, ExCEED, University of Missouri Extension Maurice Harris, MERIC, MO Dept. Economic Development

MEDC Conference, October 22, 2015

MERIC, ExCEED, BRIDG Partnership

• Provide easier access to data and special research

• MERIC will continue to focus on the large projects, in-depth research, etc.

• ExCEED & BRIDG will provide county/regional data, county/region profiles, special projects, training and planning

Rural Missouri Asset Mapping

MISSOURI ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND INFORMATION CENTER

Introduction

•Traditional economic development approaches alone won’t change rural area trends. •The report highlights rural county assets to consider when planning economic development strategies. •The assets that were selected were:

• Population • Infrastructure • Entrepreneurial • Economic Catalyst

Large Urban/Rural Trends

Urban areas grow faster in population, not income. ¤ Rural income trends may be tied to farm income increases over this time period.

Headwaters Economics (US Forest Service): http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/economic-profile-system

Area 2000 2013 Change % Chg.Metropolitan USPopulation 241,035,121 274,427,460 33,392,339 14%Personal Income* $10,715,659 $12,906,262 $2,190,602 20%Non-Metro USPopulation 45,201,471 46,609,359 1,407,888 3%Personal Income* $1,423,692 $1,727,780 $304,087 21%

Metro MissouriPopulation 4,127,071 4,487,584 360,513 9%Personal Income* $173,685 $196,834 $23,149 13%Non-Metro MissouriPopulation 1,480,214 1,556,587 76,373 5%Personal Income* $43,337 $52,870 $9,533 22%*in Millions $2014

Large Urban/Rural Job by Type

Urban area employment grows at faster pace ¤ Payroll Jobs declining in Rural Areas ¤ Proprietors growing more slowly in Rural Areas

Area 2000 2013 Change % Chg.Metropolitan USWage and Salary Jobs 121,466,930 126,590,791 5,123,861 4%Number of Proprietors 22,660,177 34,294,278 11,634,101 51%Non-Metro USWage and Salary Jobs 17,945,007 17,523,464 -421,543 -2%Number of Proprietors 5,520,284 6,445,152 924,868 17%

Metro MissouriWage and Salary Jobs 2,294,668 2,266,808 -27,860 -1%Number of Proprietors 397,849 532,407 134,558 34%Non-Metro MissouriWage and Salary Jobs 560,056 549,831 -10,225 -2%Number of Proprietors 221,005 230,827 9,822 4%Headwaters Economics (US Forest Service): http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/economic-profile-system

Population Assets

Small cities are economic hubs for rural areas: ¤ Employment and

infrastructure centers ¤ Draw commuting population

from surrounding counties 17 cities in rural counties have population of 10,000 +. Counties surrounding small cities had at most 55% of population working out of county.

Infrastructure Assets - Transportation

4-Lane Highway Access is Important ¤ Population in 15-Minute* Drive:

■ 91% All Population ■ 78% Non-Metro Population

*12 Miles used to estimate drive time. Missouri has 6th Largest Highway System in the U.S.

Infrastructure Assets – Internet

Broadband Access is Important: ¤ 48% of rural population

has access to two or more ISP’s.

¤ Download speeds > 25 mbps are big divider: ■ MO Rural: 40% (U.S. 55%) ■ MO Urban: 95% (U.S. 94%)

Source: FCC Broadbandmap.gov. Census 2010 Urban/Rural designation Counties with post-secondary education institutions have a larger percentage.

Entrepreneurial Assets

Breadth and Depth are concepts that measures the concentration and impact of entrepreneurial activities in a county. Breadth assesses the quantity of activity, which reflects the size and variety of small businesses. ¤ Breadth is highest in small, isolated counties. ¤ This is due to the need to spawn a large number of small firms to provide

goods and services. Depth measures the quality of activity in a region. It assesses the value small businesses generate for themselves and the local economy. ¤ Depth is higher in more densely populated metro and micropolitian

counties. ¤ Self-employed workers usually earn higher incomes in larger metro

counties.

Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve Report: Gauging a Region’s Entrepreneurial Potential https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q05low.pdf

Entrepreneurial Asset Maps

Economic Catalysts

Export-oriented (income importing) sectors. Map highlights top sectors of employment. Top-employing, export-oriented industries in rural counties ¤ Manufacturing ¤ Tourism ¤ Agriculture

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5-Year Estimates. Definitions available at https://www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/rural_mo_asset_mapping.pdf

Summary

https://www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/rural_mo_asset_mapping.pdf

Urban Areas outpacing Rural Areas in population and job growth

Missouri has number of connected, smaller cities that serve as economic engines

Broadband access lower in rural areas than U.S. average

Rural areas have entrepreneurial breadth. Top export-oriented industries in rural counties

¤ Manufacturing

¤ Tourism

¤ Agriculture

Data  for  Decision  Makers    

MEDC October 22, 2015

“Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a firehose.” – Mitchell Kapor

“Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie.” – Nate Silver

“There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

“Numbers have an important story to tell. They rely on you to give them a voice.” –Stephen Few

Source: http://journal.c2er.org/2013/06/do-economic-developers-know-what-they-are-doing-the-curmudgeon-in-wonderland/

The Data Dilemma

Knowing your economy should be a ‘guiding principle’ for all economic development professionals Thousands of statistical sources on the Internet Despite the ease of access provided at many sites the good stuff still requires data base skills. Have you mastered Excel and Access? Complicated definitions, limitations and suppression Proliferation of indexes that manipulate and combine variables to distill a one number solution Developing meaningful benchmarks is difficult but necessary How can you use data in planning without overloading the process Data are metrics for job performance. Who picks the metrics in your organization?

Dig deep – The important stuff isn’t on the surface

Population ¤ Total ¤ Components of change ¤ Migration (inflow, outflow,

characteristics) ¤ Race ¤ Age Labor Force ¤ Total ¤ Labor force participation ¤ Educational attainment ¤ Unemployment rate ¤ Occupational characteristics ¤ Commuting ¤ Composition (sex, age, race) ¤ School system indicators Government Finance Social Capital

• Economy • Composition by sector

• Economic base

• Classification based on dominant industries

• Diversity

• Entrepreneurship, new business formation

• Small business sector

• Regional dynamics (worker and income flows)

• Wage rates (per job, by industry)

• Retail sales

• Income • Personal income by source (BEA)

• Money income (per capita, household distribution)

• Poverty

• Gini coefficient

• Households/Housing • Total • Household type

• Housing units by tenure

• Affordability

So, where did you get those numbers?

Traditional sources: Census, BEA, BLS, FBI, NCES, USDA … Administrative record data: Missouri Dept. of Revenue, IRS Statistics of Income, National Center for Charitable Statistics Proprietary sources: Economic Modeling Systems Inc., ESRI Business Analyst, Synergos Technologies Inc., Pcensus Value added public access: StatsAmerica, Missouri Census Data Center, On the Map, NetMigration, Your Economy, Economic Profile System, Kids Count

What is it?

Population Change 2000 to 2010

90% of population growth occurred in 6 counties

2002 Employment Density

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

2013 Employment Density

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

2013 Manufacturing Locations with 100+ Employees

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

2013 Employers with High Densities of College Educated Workers

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Population Density by Census Block

Office of Management and Budget County Classification

Source: http://www.census.gov/population/metro/

Percent of Missouri Population by OMB Category

0%

18%

35%

53%

70%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

33%

29%27%

24% 24%

21%

17%15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%

41%

46%

49%

55% 55%

60%

64%67%

65% 65% 64% 64% 65%

Metro Central Metro Outlying Micro Central Micro Outlying Not Metro or Micro

Source: Census Bureau

Unemployment Rates by OMB Classification

0.0%

2.8%

5.5%

8.3%

11.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0.0419

0.05360.0593 0.0612 0.0612 0.0569

0.05150.0556

0.0651

0.0952

0.1072

0.096

0.07920.0753

0.0682

0.0336

0.0436

0.0521 0.05470.0578

0.0530.0476 0.0496

0.0605

0.0922 0.0928

0.0817

0.0668 0.06430.0588

Metropolitan Micropolitan RuralMissouri

Historical Minimum and Maximum Unemployment Rates

0

7.5

15

22.5

30

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

13.3

15.316.8

21.522.8

17.8

1412.6

11.3

8.57.4

8.49.1

10.29.1 8.7

88.7

10.2

14.2

16.7

14.1

1210.7

9.6

2.8 3 2.33

2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.22.3

3 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.74.2

6 6.55.7

4.2 4.1 3.9

Minimum Maximum

Boone

Boone

Wayne

Worth

Iron

Taney

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Real and Nominal Average Wage Growth 2001-2015

-13%

0%

13%

25%

38%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Nominal MO NominalUS Real MO RealSource: Economic Modeling Systems Inc.

Self Employed Workers 2001 to 2015

0%

5%

9%

14%

18%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Missouri

Source: Economic Modeling Systems Inc.

Covered Employment 2001 to 2015

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Missouri

Source: Economic Modeling Systems Inc.

Recovery – 2014 unemployment compared to 2006

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Belle

• New business development organization needs assistance with strategy development • Stagnant economy

•Geographically isolated

• Lagging retail sales but active retail community

•Osage Arts Community

• Large commuting population

• Declining home ownership

• Age selective migration – Brain Drain

• How to take advantage of Rock Island Trail State Park

USDA Stronger Economies Together

Green Hills Region

• Facilitating the planning process • Delivering regional data profiles to

support regional development plan • Purdue Center for Regional Development • Research support as the project evolves •Opportunities

• Build out of the East Locust Creek Reservoir • Tourism • Agribusiness

Stone County

Very unique growth drivers ¤ Table Rock Lake ¤ Branson ¤ Springfield MSA Lake Recreation Retirement County High income in-migration Young low income out-migration Economy dominated by small businesses (63% compared to 26% in the region)

Sustainable Ozarks Partnership

Leonard Wood Institute

SOP is the public outreach agent for the Leonard Wood Institute at Ft. Leonard Wood concerned with quality of life Veteran farmer training Expanding markets for locally produced foods Grant writing Building data bases describing agricultural production, food demand, veteran population, and market characteristics Developing a trail system

Civilian'Population Veterans %'Veterans

Laclede 26,571 3,495 13.2%

Phelps 35,001 4,246 12.1%

Pulaski 26,352 7,416 28.1%

Texas 19,873 2,947 14.8%

SOP?Region 107,797 18,104 16.8%

Missouri 4,542,868 494,876 10.9%

US 234,029,580 21,853,912 9.3%

Data Services

•Detailed analysis of demographic, housing and economic conditions, trends and projections

•Drive time analysis and market profiles

• Economic impact assessment •Detailed occupational profiles and wage rates

• Tools for attraction

Smart, innovative workers like to be around other smart, innovative workers. Manufacturing of the labor intensive variety, no matter the tax subsidies, will never return to the United States Trade is a two-way street There are “Three Americas” (innovative, well educated cities, dying manufacturing hubs, and cities that could go either way) Small businesses is dependent on large businesses.  “In the past, good jobs and high incomes were tied to large-scale production of manufactured goods. Factories were the places where economic value was created. But today little value remains in the production of goods that anybody can make.”

ExCEED and BRIDG Services

• Workshops • Fundamentals of Economic Development (New version coming in

2016) • Data For Decision Makers (coming early 2016)

• Planning • Data

• Custom analysis • Economic Impact Analysis • County/Regional Profiles

• Mapping • Resilient Communities

Resilient Communities

▪ Engagement with county/region to explore opportunities and build an actionable plan to move the county/region forward

▪ Includes: ▪ Assessment and Readiness Analysis ▪ Asset Mapping ▪ Community Profile and Economic Impact Analysis ▪ Development of Strategic Plan ▪ Ongoing Support and Assistance

We Need Your Help

What data is important to you? What format? Excel spreadsheet? Prepared tables and charts? Other formats? How do we benchmark? ¤ Who do you consider your “peers”? Adjacent counties?

Counties of similar size? Similar economy?

Watch for a survey later this year.