moving average
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Moving Average - Delta Index Technical AnalysisTRANSCRIPT
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Moving Average Technical Analysis
Brief explanation of the Moving average and triple crossover
2009
Mark Chambers
Delta Index
12/7/2009
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Moving Average (MA) Double and Triple
cross-over.
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
A SMA is the unweighted mean of the previous n data points. For example, a 10-day simple
moving average of closing price is the mean of the previous 10 days' closing prices. If those
prices are pM, pM − 1... pM − 9 then the formula is:
In technical analysis there are various popular values for n, like 10 days, 40 days, 100 days or
200 days. The period selected depends on the kind of movement one is concentrating on, such as
short, intermediate, or long term.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
An EMA applies weighting factors
which decrease exponentially. The
weighting for each older data point
decreases exponentially, giving
much more importance to recent
observations while still not
discarding older observations
entirely. The graph on the next
page shows an example of the
weight decrease.
The formula for an EMA is:
EMA (current) = [ [ Price (current) – EMA (previous) ] x Multiplier ] + EMA (previous)
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The Multiplier is equal to [ 2 / (1 + N) ], where N is the specified number of periods.
For example, a 10-period EMA's Multiplier is calculated like this:
[ 2 / ( 1 + 10 ) ] = 0.1818
Which Moving Average to use
Which moving average you use will depend on your trading and investing style and preferences.
The SMA has a longer lag, but the EMA may be prone to quicker breaks. Some traders prefer to
use EMAs for shorter time periods to capture changes quicker. Some investors prefer SMAs over
long time periods to identify long-term trend changes. In addition, much will depend on the
individual security in question. A 100-day SMA might work great for identifying support levels
in Bank of Ireland, but a 20-day EMA may work better for Elan. Moving average type and
length of time will depend greatly on the individual security and how it has reacted in the past.
What Moving Average length to use
The critical element in a moving average is the number of time periods used in calculating the
average. When using hindsight, you can always find a moving average that would have been
profitable. The key is to find a moving average that will be consistently profitable.
Possible Uses
Because moving averages follow the trend, they work best when a security is trending and are
ineffective when a security moves in a trading range. With this in mind, investors and traders
should first identify securities that display some trending characteristics before attempting to
analyze with moving averages. Usually, a simple visual assessment of the price chart can
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determine if a security exhibits characteristics of trend. Here are some uses when the security is
trending:
(a) Trend identification: As mentioned, moving averages are most useful when a security is
trending. Also helpful, moving averages can identify trends. It does this in three ways:
(1) Direction. The first trend identification technique uses the direction of the moving
average to determine the trend. If the moving average is rising, the trend is
considered up. If the moving average is declining, the trend is considered down.
(2) Location. The second technique for trend identification is price location. The
location of the price relative to the moving average can be used to determine the
basic trend. If the price is above the moving average, the trend is considered up. If
the price is below the moving average, the trend is considered down.
(3) Crossovers. The third technique for trend identification is based on the location of
the shorter moving average relative to the longer moving average. If the shorter
moving average is above the longer moving average, the trend is considered up. If
the shorter moving average is below the longer moving average, the trend is
considered down. This can also be done with 3 moving averages. A common one
is 4,9,18 used widely by Futures traders. When the 4 moves above the 9 and 18
this is seen as a Bullish signal. When the 4 moves below the 9 and the 18 it is
seen as a sell signal. Earlier signals are give as the 4 crosses the 9, however
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more conservative traders will wait for confirmation as it crosses the 18.
Triple moving average crosses on a weekly Dow Chart.
(b) Support and Resistance: This is usually accomplished with one moving average and is
based on historical precedent. When a market is trending upwards, the moving average
may become a strong support level. This becomes a strong indicator if it has worked two
or three times.
Indicators which are especially well-suited for use with moving average penetration systems
include the MACD, Momentum, and Stochastics.
Conclusion
Moving averages can be effective tools to identify and confirm trend, identify support and
resistance levels. However, traders and investors should learn to identify securities that are
suitable for analysis with moving averages and how this analysis should be applied. Usually, an
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assessment can be made with a visual examination of the price chart, but sometimes it will
require a more detailed approach.
The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages. Moving
averages are trend following, or lagging, indicators that will always be a step behind. This is not
necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to trade in the
direction of the trend. Moving averages will help ensure that a trader is in line with the current
trend. However, markets, stocks and securities spend a great deal of time in trading ranges,
which render moving averages ineffective. Once in a trend, moving averages will keep you in,
but also give late signals.