montana dwsac briefingdnrc.mt.gov/.../2017/september-noaa-weather-update.pdfmontana dwsac briefing...
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Montana DWSAC Briefing
September 18, 2017
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationWeather-Ready Nation
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Sep 16 – Aug 17 Precip Anomaly
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Montana: Sep 2016 – Aug 2017
Avg Temp 20th Century Average Departure
43.3°F 41.1°F 2.4°F
7th Warmest on Record
Precip 20th Century Average Departure
18.67” 18.66” 0.01”
Precipitation Above Normal (19th Wettest)
15th Warmest on Record
59th Driest on Record
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Water Year 2017 Precip Anomaly
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Precipitation RankingWater Year 2017
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Precipitation RankingCalendar Year 2017
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Precipitation RankingMeteorological Summer 2017
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Aug 2017 Precip vs AnomalyPrecipitation Anomaly
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7-Day Observed PrecipitationAs of 18 September 2017 Inches
2+” 2+”
2+”
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Mean Temperature RankingWater Year 2017
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PRISM SPEIWater Year 2017
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PRISM SPEIJuly 2017
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Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
8-day composite ending September 6
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Vegetation Drought Response IndexAs of September 17
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Palmer Hydrological Drought Indexas of September 16
-2.77”Moderate Drought
-1.84”Mild Drought
-3.05”Severe Drought
-3.09”Severe Drought
-1.86”Mild Drought
-3.14”Severe Drought
-4.21”Extreme Drought
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Precip Needed to Ameliorate Drought ConditionsIn 1 Month as of September 16
3.00”
0.00”
2.33”
2.73”
0.00”2.36”
3.30”
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Precip Needed to End Drought ConditionsIn 1 Month as of September 16
6.01”
----
4.29”
4.96”
----4.24”
5.06”
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ENSOLa Nina Watch!
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7 Day Precipitation Forecast
CreatedSeptember 18
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8-14 Day OutlookCreated September 18
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Experimental Week 3-4 OutlookCreated September 15
Temperature Precipitation
55% or greater chance of above normal temperatures across Montana
50 to 55% chance of below normal precipitation across Montana
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Sep-Nov OutlookCreated August 17
Temperature Precipitation
33% to 40% chance of above normal temperatures across Montana
Equal chances of above or below precipitation across Montana
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Dec-Feb OutlookCreated August 17
Temperature Precipitation
40% chance of above normal temperatures western Montana, 33% central Montana, and equal chances of above or below normal temperatures NE MT
Equal chances of above or below normal precipitation across Montana
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Mar-May OutlookCreated August 17
Temperature Precipitation
33% chance of above normal temperatures western Montana, with equal chances of above or below normal temperatures across eastern Montana.
Equal chances of above or below normal precipitation statewide/
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Jun-Aug OutlookCreated August 17
Temperature Precipitation
Equal chances for above normal or below temperatures northeast Montana, 33% chance or greater over western half of Montana
Equal chances of above or below normal precipitation statewide
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National Weather Service Great FallsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationWeather-Ready Nation
weather.govweather.gov/billings
weather.gov/glasgowweather.gov/missoulaweather.gov/greatfalls