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Page 1: Money Matters Hahahaha

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  MOMF – BUY

Figure 5: …but internal process reveal a complex web of  processes, requiring client handholding by the syndicator at every step of  the process

Preparation of 

appraisal note

at the bank

branch

Submission of 

information

memorandum

to the lead

bank

Processing

information

Additional

information

needed?

No

Yes

Appraisal note

review by branch

head

Additional

information

needed?

Seek additionalinformation

Seek additionalinformation

Yes

Incorporate

changes in

appraisal note

α

α

No

Preparation of 

appraisal note

at the bank

branch

Submission of 

information

memorandum

to the lead

bank

Processing

information

Additional

information

needed?

No

Yes

Appraisal note

review by branch

head

Additional

information

needed?

Seek additionalinformation

Seek additionalinformation

Yes

Incorporate

changes in

appraisal note

α

α

No

 

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  MOMF – BUY

With a significant rise in the participation of the private sector ininfrastructure investments and a likely acceleration in investments bymanufacturing and services over the medium term, we forecast

syndication volumes will grow by 20% during FY10–FY13ii to Rs4.2trn.We believe there would likely be upside surprises to this estimate.

Figure 8: Planned infrastructure investment in the XI Plan 

Sectors  Rs bn Sectoral shares (%)

Electricity (incl. NCE)  6,665   32.4

Roads and bridges  3,142   15.3

Telecom  2,584   12.6

Railways (incl.

 MRTS)

 2,618

 12.7

Irrigation (incl. Watershed)  2,533   12.3

Water Supply and Sanitation  1,437   7.0

Ports  880   4.3

Airports  310   1.5

Storage  224   1.1

Gas  169   0.8

Total 

20,562 

100.0Source: Planning Commission, RBI, IIFL Research 

Figure 9: Expected share of  private sector in infrastructure investments under XI Plan 

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08P FY09P FY10P FY11P FY12P

Electricity Roads Railways Irrigation Water supply Ports Airports

(Rs bn)

 

Source: Planning

 commission,

 RBI,

 IIFL

 Research

 

Figure 10: Private sector GFCF 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12ii

(10)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80GFCF: Private corporate sector YoY (RHS)

(USD$ bn)

(%)

 Source: Planning commission, RBI, IIFL Research 

We believe MOMF is well-positioned for this opportunity. We forecastMOMF’s market share in loan syndication volume will rise from 8% inFY10 to 11% in FY13ii. Contribution of power and infrastructure sector

in the overall volume of loan syndication would likely rise from 52% inFY10. Strong growth in syndication volume and lower competitionintensity should augur well for transaction fees as well.

Figure 11: Estimated market size and market share for MOMF 

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

FY09 FY10 FY11ii FY12ii FY13ii

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Syndication 

vol umes MMOF 

market 

share 

(RHS)

(Rs bn) %

 

Source: Planning commission, RBI, IIFL Research 

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[email protected]

MOMF – BUY

11

 Financial summary 

Income statement summary (Rs m) 

Y/e 31

 Mar

 FY09A

 FY10A FY11ii FY12ii FY13ii

Net interest income  22  55 181 997 1,792

Fee Income  1,610  2,007 2,409 3,011 3,764

Others  110  182 594 1,301 2,279

Non‐interest income  1,720  2,189 3,003 4,312 6,043

Total operating income  1,742  2,244 3,184 5,309 7,835

Total operating expenses  185  341 602 1,032 1,476

Pre provision operating profit  1,558  1,904 2,582 4,276 6,359

Profit before

 tax

 1,558

 1,904 2,582 4,276 6,359

Taxes  530  640 872 1,444 2,147

Net profit  1,028  1,263 1,710 2,832 4,211

 Balance sheet summary (Rs m) 

Y/e 31 Mar  FY09A  FY10A FY11ii FY12ii FY13ii

Net loans & advances  187  802 6,814 20,442 46,404

Cash & equivalents  1,111  1,058 4,872 5,894 5,262

Other interest‐earning assets  60  64 70 77 85

Total interest‐earning assets  1,358  1,923 11,756 26,413 51,752

Fixed assets  30  37 44 50 56

Other assets  968  2,590 2,849 3,356 3,577

Total assets  2,356  4,550 14,649 29,820 55,385

Other interest‐bearing liabilities  218  279 1,953 14,162 35,405

Total interest‐bearing liabilities  218  279 1,953 14,162 35,405

Non‐interest‐bearing liabilities  609  1,462 1,754 2,050 2,407

Total liabilities

 827

 1,741 3,708 16,212 37,812

Total Shareholder's equity  1,529  2,809 10,941 13,608 17,573

Total liabilities & equity  2,356  4,550 14,649 29,820 55,385Source: Company data, IIFL Research

Ratio analysis 

Y/e 31

 Mar

 FY09A FY10A FY11ii FY12ii

 FY13ii

 

Balance Sheet Structure Ratios (%) 

Loan Growth ‐65.5 328.0 750.0 200.0  127.0 

Growth in Total Assets (%)  125.8 93.1 222.0 103.6  85.7 

Profitability Ratios 

Net Interest Margin  6.0 11.2 4.7 7.3  5.4 

Return on Average Equity  110.8 57.9 24.9 23.1  27.0 

Non‐Interest

 Income

 as

 %

 of 

 Total

 

Income 

98.7 97.5 94.3 81.2  77.1 

Net Profit Growth  2276.5 22.9 35.4 65.6  48.7 

FDEPS Growth  701.4 19.0 ‐4.9 65.6  48.7 

Efficiency Ratios (%) 

Cost to Income Ratio  10.6 15.2 18.9 19.4  18.8 

Salaries as % of  Non‐Interest costs  70.3 41.2 35.0 32.6  31.9 

Assumptions 

Y/e 31 Mar  FY09A FY10A FY11ii FY12ii  FY13ii 

Growth in syndication volumes (%)  NA 153 50 25  25 

Debt syndication fees (bps)  NA 15 12 12  12 

Loan syndication fees (bps)  126 93 75 75  75 

Source: Company data, IIFL Research

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