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Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level Matthew Hamilton, MS, MPH Venture Strategies for Health and Development Berkeley, California March 18, 2011

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Page 1: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

Momentum of Population: Time and Scale

The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

Matthew Hamilton, MS, MPHVenture Strategies for Health and Development

Berkeley, California

March 18, 2011

Page 2: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.7 (2010)Unmet need for family planning:

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 3: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.8 (2010)Unmet need for family planning:

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 4: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 5: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.6 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 30% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 6: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4 (2007)Unmet need for family planning: 22.8 (2007)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 7: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.0 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 29% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 8: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.7 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 20% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 9: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 1.5 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 2.3% (2003)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 10: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 6% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 11: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 24.4% (2007)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 12: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 3.0 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 13: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 34% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 14: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.3 (2010)Unmet need for family planning:

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 15: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.0 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 34% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 16: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 28% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 17: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.6 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 13% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 18: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 9% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 19: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 3.8 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 12% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 20: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.6 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 24% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 21: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.0 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 27% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 22: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.6 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 29% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 23: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.2 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 12.0% (2006)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 24: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 11% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 25: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.1 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 19% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 26: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.5 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 15% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 27: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 7.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 16% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 28: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.7 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 17% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 29: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.0 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 33% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 30: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 3.2 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 17% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 31: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 38% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 32: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 4.9 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 31% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 33: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 2.4 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 15% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 34: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.6 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 22% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 35: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.5 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 41% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 36: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 3.82 (2006)Unmet need for family planning: 21.2% (2006)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 37: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 5.5 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 51% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 38: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 6.2 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 28% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size

Page 39: Momentum of Population: Time and Scale The future of countries’ population size, depending on three scenarios of fertility decline to replacement level

The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertilityhas a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Total fertility rate: 3.7 (2010)Unmet need for family planning: 13% (2008)

2010, currentpopulation size