modelling activities at cawcr, 2014

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014

Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer, on behalf of colleagues throughout CAWCR

WGNE-29Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

• POAMA-M24 (Seasonal prediction system) – March 27, 2013

• APS1 ACCESS-R – Apr-17 2013

• APS1 ACCESS-C – Oct-8 2013

• Solar – Ngamai switch – Dec 2013

• APS1 ACCESS-TC – Dec-19 2013

• (NWP) Ensembles

• NCI / NeCTAR (Tuesday – Tim Pugh)

• SREP / FDP (Wednesday Hi-res NWP)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

Major forecast systems summary


A reminder on forecast system names ….

ACCESS – G / R / C / TC “POAMA” – Predictive Ocean Atmosphere model for Australia


POAMA P24 to M24

• Core elements largely unchanged (BAM3, T47/250km, L17, ACOM2, two-deg, L25)

• More emphasis on shorter (multiweek, instraseasonal) FCs, better early spread

• Introduction of atmospheric perturbations via breeding method (3 x 11)

P24, M24Upper-tercile precip

Significant MJO improvement – 0.5 RMM correl 17 -> 22.5 days


APS1 ACCESS-R (changes)

• Regional model rationalisation: “A0” + “R0” -> “R1” (12km, L70, large-domain)

• Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.5)

• Additional data:

• IASI, GPS-RO, locally-processed ATOVS (RARS)

R0 (left), R1 (right)


APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)



Best, middle, worst


APS1 ACCESS-C (changes)

• Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.6)

• Resolution (0.05 -> 0.036 deg, L50 -> L70)

• Nesting in APS1 ACCESS-R

• New (trial) Darwin domain

• Still FC-only (no DA), now with two-step reconfig

• Operational-timing driven in part by SC upgrade

• Is still “overly convective” for tropical stability


APS1 ACCESS-C (performance)

• For many variables, similar to APS0

• Forecasters report improved wind-changes (topog/res?)

• However - worse T2m than APS0

Good: Mossvale station – APS1 better

OBS APS1 APS0

MOSS VALE AWS ,-34.5253, 150.4217 (Lat,Lon)

Bad: Bankstown station – APS0 better

OBS APS1 APS0

BANKSTOWN ,-33.9181, 150.9864 (Lat,Lon)

APS1 Urban Fractions are realistic

APS1 APS0

0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1

Almost No Urban Areas in APS0

APS0 Urban fractions are not ….

APS1 APS0

0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1

Almost No Urban Areas in APS0

ACCESS-C (SY) - impact of Urban/Tree

APS0 APS1

Control

APS1

Revised Urban Parameters

APS1

Revised Urban Parameters

Tree Height=10m

T2m Forecasts

RMS Difference from observed (K)

90 Stations

2.1 2.4 2.2 1.9

APS0 looks good because it has almost no urban tile fractions and shorter trees!


Solar – Ngamai SC upgrade

• Solar decommissioned Dec 2013

• Ngamai declared operational Dec 2013

• 576 compute nodes, 6912 compute cores (Intel Sandy Bridge)

• Opn-Capacity: 12.5 Tflops (0.25 * 50) -> 52 Tflops (0.5 * 104)

• Example:

• APS1 ACCESS-G wall-clock: 95 min -> 59 min


APS1 ACCESS-TC

• Usual component/level upgrade (UM 7.5 / L70)

• Had tried this previously with no success

• Upgraded forecast-error covariances (over full TC domain), vortex-specification

• Helped with previous 4DVar excursions

• Improvement in long-period track, also removes last “APS0” elements from suite

“APS10”, APS1


Towards APS2: ACCESS-G

• N512 (25km), L70, UM 8.2 early trial system running for months now

• Obs-set not yet complete – require upgrade of current OPS

• Still to do: SSMIS (from F17/18), CrIS/ATMS (Suomi-NPP), OSCAT, Windsat

NH Aust

Towards APS2: Plans

• Regional (R) – technical upgrade only

• Flag possible retirement in APS3+ ?????

• City (C) – 2.2km convection-permitting, still FC-only

• Ensembles – finally get the N216 global ensemble to operations

• “ACCESS-X” – on-demand system(s)

• Have used early-prototype – eg., to setup research-only 1.5km Darwin


Towards POAMA3

POAMA3/ACCESS

• To supersede POAMA-2P and 2M

• Based on ACCESS1.0 coupled model

• Full coupled initialisation (PECDAS)

• Operational ~2015 (??)

Achievements

• Trial POAMA3/ACCESS system implemented on raijin

• Extensive hindcast set is being performed (1980 – present)

ACCESS “ESM1”

• ACCESS ESM1 = ACCESS1.4 + carbon cycle + CABLE 2.1 + OASIS-MCT

• Coupling successfully achieved, carbon exchanged between land, ocean and atmosphere

• Interactive or prescribed atmospheric CO2

• Currently running prescribed CO2 pre-industrial case

• Assessing stability of carbon fluxes

• Historical and 2 RCP cases to follow.

• 14/15 Emissions-driven simulations

• Interactive atmospheric CO2

• Pre-industrial, historical, RCP

• With and without land-use change

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Annual mean net ocean (red) and land (black) carbon flux to atmosphere. Aim is zero flux under pre-industrial conditions.

Year

Glo

bal

flu

x (P

gC/y

)


ACCESS-CM2 development

22

Motivation for upgraded model• Anticipate improvements in realism due to improved model physics and resolution

• World-class Australian contribution to CMIP6 and tool for climate science

• Upgrade required for effective national and international partnerships

Plan – ACCESS-CM2

• Enhanced vertical atmospheric resolution – 85 levels

• Based on “GA6” atmospheric code

• Horizontal atmospheric resolution

• Lower resolution “N96” (as current) version

• Higher resolution “N216” (~0.55°lat; ~0.8°lon) version

• Horizontal oceanic resolution – compare 1, 0.25 degree

• Development of high-res versions depends on efficiency on raijin

• Include CABLE2 using the JULES framework

Achievements - ACCESS-CM2 development

New atmospheric component GA6.0 implemented at NCI

• At standard (N96) resolution so far – higher res (N216) will follow

• 25-year test simulation is underway – 8 years done so far

• Work is underway to couple to the other model components

There has been good progress in coupling CABLE to the atmospheric code via JULES.

A collaboration has been established with the CoECSS in ocean model development

• Global ocean model (0.25° lat/lon) implemented using the MOM5 code

• Potential to adopt as ocean component for ACCESS-CM2


Thank you

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Gary DietachmayerESM/AMP RGL (acting)

Phone: 03 9669 4749Email: [email protected]: www.cawcr.gov.au

Thank youwww.cawcr.gov.au

From Best et al (2006)

• “model runs revealed MOSES2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage”

• “Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered”

• The Urban tile canopy heat capacity parameter is “not well defined and cannot be measured”

• “we conclude that the basic canopy scheme in MOSES 2.2 does not adequately capture the physical processes of the urban atmosphere to accurately represent an urban area.”

Jules Urban Typesfrom Porson et al 2010

Soil Soil Soil

Urban CanopyRoof

Canyon

RoofCanyon

Fixed Tb

RMSEWatts/m2

Urban Canopy

Thick Roof & Canyon Thin Roof & Canyon Thin Roof & Canyon with Radiative Exchange

All fluxes 57 60 38 29

Net Radn 35 46 37 31

Sensible Heat 48 43 30 17

Comparison against observations from Mexico city

Default Scheme

Experimental Schemes

Conclusions

1) Many observing stations are in Urban areas1) Most Australians live in the Big cities!

2) Properties of the Urban tile and Tree heights are important

3) Models make simplistic assumptions about tree heights4) Need for an accurate spatial map of Tree heights5) Need for Improved Urban and Lake Tile Models for

ACCESS6) We have performed NWP tests with revised Urban

parameters and tree heights that show significant improvements in forecasts

modelling activities at cawcr, 2014

Documents

australian weather

climate research

bureau of meteorologywgne

2013aps1 accessr

2013aps1 accessc

australiathe centre

worstthe centre

daysthe centre