Download - Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014
Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer, on behalf of colleagues throughout CAWCR
WGNE-29Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
• POAMA-M24 (Seasonal prediction system) – March 27, 2013
• APS1 ACCESS-R – Apr-17 2013
• APS1 ACCESS-C – Oct-8 2013
• Solar – Ngamai switch – Dec 2013
• APS1 ACCESS-TC – Dec-19 2013
• (NWP) Ensembles
• NCI / NeCTAR (Tuesday – Tim Pugh)
• SREP / FDP (Wednesday Hi-res NWP)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
Major forecast systems summary
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
A reminder on forecast system names ….
ACCESS – G / R / C / TC “POAMA” – Predictive Ocean Atmosphere model for Australia
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
POAMA P24 to M24
• Core elements largely unchanged (BAM3, T47/250km, L17, ACOM2, two-deg, L25)
• More emphasis on shorter (multiweek, instraseasonal) FCs, better early spread
• Introduction of atmospheric perturbations via breeding method (3 x 11)
P24, M24Upper-tercile precip
Significant MJO improvement – 0.5 RMM correl 17 -> 22.5 days
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-R (changes)
• Regional model rationalisation: “A0” + “R0” -> “R1” (12km, L70, large-domain)
• Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.5)
• Additional data:
• IASI, GPS-RO, locally-processed ATOVS (RARS)
R0 (left), R1 (right)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)
Best, middle, worst
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-C (changes)
• Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.6)
• Resolution (0.05 -> 0.036 deg, L50 -> L70)
• Nesting in APS1 ACCESS-R
• New (trial) Darwin domain
• Still FC-only (no DA), now with two-step reconfig
• Operational-timing driven in part by SC upgrade
• Is still “overly convective” for tropical stability
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-C (performance)
• For many variables, similar to APS0
• Forecasters report improved wind-changes (topog/res?)
• However - worse T2m than APS0
Good: Mossvale station – APS1 better
OBS APS1 APS0
MOSS VALE AWS ,-34.5253, 150.4217 (Lat,Lon)
Bad: Bankstown station – APS0 better
OBS APS1 APS0
BANKSTOWN ,-33.9181, 150.9864 (Lat,Lon)
APS1 Urban Fractions are realistic
APS1 APS0
0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1
Almost No Urban Areas in APS0
APS0 Urban fractions are not ….
APS1 APS0
0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1
Almost No Urban Areas in APS0
ACCESS-C (SY) - impact of Urban/Tree
APS0 APS1
Control
APS1
Revised Urban Parameters
APS1
Revised Urban Parameters
Tree Height=10m
T2m Forecasts
RMS Difference from observed (K)
90 Stations
2.1 2.4 2.2 1.9
APS0 looks good because it has almost no urban tile fractions and shorter trees!
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
Solar – Ngamai SC upgrade
• Solar decommissioned Dec 2013
• Ngamai declared operational Dec 2013
• 576 compute nodes, 6912 compute cores (Intel Sandy Bridge)
• Opn-Capacity: 12.5 Tflops (0.25 * 50) -> 52 Tflops (0.5 * 104)
• Example:
• APS1 ACCESS-G wall-clock: 95 min -> 59 min
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
APS1 ACCESS-TC
• Usual component/level upgrade (UM 7.5 / L70)
• Had tried this previously with no success
• Upgraded forecast-error covariances (over full TC domain), vortex-specification
• Helped with previous 4DVar excursions
• Improvement in long-period track, also removes last “APS0” elements from suite
“APS10”, APS1
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
Towards APS2: ACCESS-G
• N512 (25km), L70, UM 8.2 early trial system running for months now
• Obs-set not yet complete – require upgrade of current OPS
• Still to do: SSMIS (from F17/18), CrIS/ATMS (Suomi-NPP), OSCAT, Windsat
NH Aust
Towards APS2: Plans
• Regional (R) – technical upgrade only
• Flag possible retirement in APS3+ ?????
• City (C) – 2.2km convection-permitting, still FC-only
• Ensembles – finally get the N216 global ensemble to operations
• “ACCESS-X” – on-demand system(s)
• Have used early-prototype – eg., to setup research-only 1.5km Darwin
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
Towards POAMA3
POAMA3/ACCESS
• To supersede POAMA-2P and 2M
• Based on ACCESS1.0 coupled model
• Full coupled initialisation (PECDAS)
• Operational ~2015 (??)
Achievements
• Trial POAMA3/ACCESS system implemented on raijin
• Extensive hindcast set is being performed (1980 – present)
ACCESS “ESM1”
• ACCESS ESM1 = ACCESS1.4 + carbon cycle + CABLE 2.1 + OASIS-MCT
• Coupling successfully achieved, carbon exchanged between land, ocean and atmosphere
• Interactive or prescribed atmospheric CO2
• Currently running prescribed CO2 pre-industrial case
• Assessing stability of carbon fluxes
• Historical and 2 RCP cases to follow.
• 14/15 Emissions-driven simulations
• Interactive atmospheric CO2
• Pre-industrial, historical, RCP
• With and without land-use change
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Annual mean net ocean (red) and land (black) carbon flux to atmosphere. Aim is zero flux under pre-industrial conditions.
Year
Glo
bal
flu
x (P
gC/y
)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS-CM2 development
22
Motivation for upgraded model• Anticipate improvements in realism due to improved model physics and resolution
• World-class Australian contribution to CMIP6 and tool for climate science
• Upgrade required for effective national and international partnerships
Plan – ACCESS-CM2
• Enhanced vertical atmospheric resolution – 85 levels
• Based on “GA6” atmospheric code
• Horizontal atmospheric resolution
• Lower resolution “N96” (as current) version
• Higher resolution “N216” (~0.55°lat; ~0.8°lon) version
• Horizontal oceanic resolution – compare 1, 0.25 degree
• Development of high-res versions depends on efficiency on raijin
• Include CABLE2 using the JULES framework
Achievements - ACCESS-CM2 development
New atmospheric component GA6.0 implemented at NCI
• At standard (N96) resolution so far – higher res (N216) will follow
• 25-year test simulation is underway – 8 years done so far
• Work is underway to couple to the other model components
There has been good progress in coupling CABLE to the atmospheric code via JULES.
A collaboration has been established with the CoECSS in ocean model development
• Global ocean model (0.25° lat/lon) implemented using the MOM5 code
• Potential to adopt as ocean component for ACCESS-CM2
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Thank you
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Gary DietachmayerESM/AMP RGL (acting)
Phone: 03 9669 4749Email: [email protected]: www.cawcr.gov.au
Thank youwww.cawcr.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014
From Best et al (2006)
• “model runs revealed MOSES2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage”
• “Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered”
• The Urban tile canopy heat capacity parameter is “not well defined and cannot be measured”
• “we conclude that the basic canopy scheme in MOSES 2.2 does not adequately capture the physical processes of the urban atmosphere to accurately represent an urban area.”
Jules Urban Typesfrom Porson et al 2010
Soil Soil Soil
Urban CanopyRoof
Canyon
RoofCanyon
Fixed Tb
RMSEWatts/m2
Urban Canopy
Thick Roof & Canyon Thin Roof & Canyon Thin Roof & Canyon with Radiative Exchange
All fluxes 57 60 38 29
Net Radn 35 46 37 31
Sensible Heat 48 43 30 17
Comparison against observations from Mexico city
Default Scheme
Experimental Schemes
Conclusions
1) Many observing stations are in Urban areas1) Most Australians live in the Big cities!
2) Properties of the Urban tile and Tree heights are important
3) Models make simplistic assumptions about tree heights4) Need for an accurate spatial map of Tree heights5) Need for Improved Urban and Lake Tile Models for
ACCESS6) We have performed NWP tests with revised Urban
parameters and tree heights that show significant improvements in forecasts