modeling residential water, energy, ghg emissions and cost in california. iwater, energy and climate...
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MODELING RESIDENTIALWATER, ENERGY, GHG EMISSIONS and COSTS
IN CALIFORNIA
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
ALVAR ESCRIVA-BOU [email protected]
@alesbou
notjustwater.wordpress.com
MOTIVATION
• In California, 19% of all
electricity and 30% of all natural gas is used to extract, move, treat and heat water (CEC 2005).
• Residential end-uses:
5.4% of all electricity and 15.1% of all natural gas used in the state.
OBJECTIVES
• Model to obtain waterend-uses, water-related
energy, GHG emissions
and costs for Californiahouseholds.
• Implement and analyze
potential conservation strategies.
INTRODUCTION1
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
PREVIOUS STUDIES
• Fidar et al. (2010) → Water-related energy and CO2
emissions at household level based on average end-use values (UK).
• Kenway et al. (2011, 2013) → Water and energy end-use model and CO2 emissions based in one standard house (Australia)
• Abdallah and Rosenberg (2013) → End-Use model accounting for heterogeneity (United States).
INTRODUCTION1
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
CONTRIBUTIONS2
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• VARIABILITY in location
• HETEROGENEITY in consumption
Household characteristics User’s behaviorsExternal conditions
CONTRIBUTIONS2
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• VARIABILITY in location
• HETEROGENEITY in consumption
• Water and energy RATE STRUCTURES
METHODOLOGY3
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• Data-driven:• “California Single-Family Water Use Efficiency Study”
(DeOreo, 2011).
• “Residential Energy Consumption Survey” (DOE, 2009).
• Build representative houses:• Monte Carlo simulations.
• Probability distributions for parameters affecting water and energy use.
METHODOLOGY3
• Water End-Use Model → Using “California Single-Family Water Use Efficiency Study” (DeOreo, 2011).
• Energy Model → Using “Residential Energy Consumption Survey” (DOE, 2009).
• GHG Emissions → Using Emission Factors from California Climate Action Registry (CCAR) and US Energy Information Administration.
• Simulate Conservation Strategies.
Water End-Use Model
Water Costs
Energy End-Use Model
Energy Costs
GHG Emissions
Conservation Strategies
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
WATER END-USE MODEL4
𝑄𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 =#𝑆𝑡𝑑 𝑆ℎ𝑤 ∙ 𝑄𝑆𝑡𝑑 + (#𝐿𝑜𝑤𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑆ℎ𝑤) ∙ (𝑄𝐿𝐹𝑆ℎ𝑤)
#𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠
∙ 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝐿𝑒𝑛𝑔ℎ𝑡 ∙ (𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦) ∙ (#𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑄𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑑𝑜𝑜𝑟 =
𝐸𝑇 ∙ 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎𝐿𝑎𝑤𝑛 ∙ 𝑘𝑐𝐿𝑎𝑤𝑛+ 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎𝐺𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑛 ∙ 𝑘𝑐𝐺𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑛 + 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑃𝑜𝑜𝑙 ∙ 𝑘𝑐𝑃𝑜𝑜𝑙
∙ 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
Household characteristics
Users’ behaviors
External conditions
MONTECARLO SIMULATIONS FOR WATER5
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GPD
CDF Toilet Model vs. Real Data in Davis
Modeled
Metered
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GPD
CDF Shower Model vs. Real Data in Davis
Modeled
Metered
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
MONTECARLO SIMULATIONS FOR WATER5
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GPD
CDF Indoor Model vs. Real Data in Davis
Modeled
Metered
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GPD
CDF Outdoor Model vs. Real Data in Davis
Modeled
Metered
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• From End-Water Uses → Hot water, using hot water prob. distributions per end-use (EBMUD, 2002).
• Energy Calculation – WHAM (Lutz et al., 1999):
𝑄𝑖𝑛
=𝑣𝑜𝑙 ∙ 𝑑𝑒𝑛 ∙ 𝐶𝑝 ∙ (𝑇𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑘 − 𝑇𝑖𝑛)
𝜂𝑟𝑒∙ 1 −
𝑈𝐴 ∙ 𝑇𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑘 − 𝑇𝑎𝑚𝑏
𝑃𝑜𝑛
+24 ∙ 𝑈𝐴 ∙ (𝑇𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑘 − 𝑇𝑎𝑚𝑏)
ENERGY MODEL6
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
Household characteristics
Users’ behaviors
External conditions
• Electric emission factors obtained from California Climate Action Registry, and Natural Gas emission factors from US Energy Information Administration:
GHG EMISSIONS8
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
Power UtilityElectricity
(kg CO2/kWh)
Natural Gas
(kg CO2/therm)
PG&E 0.24 5.31
San Francisco City and County 0.30 5.31
San Diego Gas & Electric 0.32 5.31
Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 0.58 5.31
Southern California Edison 0.30 5.31
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
10
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• Differences in “willingness to adopt” conservation strategies
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
10
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• Differences in “willingness to adopt” conservation strategies
• Targeting
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
10
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
• Differences in “willingness to adopt” conservation strategies
• Targeting
• Planning scales: Efficiency for whom?
• Managing water and water-related energy jointly is a way to reduce significantly greenhouse emissions in California
TAKE HOME MESSAGES
11
• Stimulate customers to save water adding the water-related energy costs.
• Consideration of heterogeneity and variability is essential to define policies.
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
THANK YOU!!!
WEC 2014 CONFERENCE MEXICO CITY, MAY 23rd 2014
ALVAR ESCRIVA-BOU [email protected]
@alesbou
notjustwater.wordpress.com