mo-sen, mo-gov chilenski strategies for missouri scout (aug. 2012)

7/31/2019 MO-Sen, MO-Gov Chilenski Strategies for Missouri Scout (Aug. 2012)

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TABLE OF COTETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... 2

INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 4

Motivation for Research ................................................................................................. 4Organization of Report ................................................................................................... 4

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................... 4Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 5About Chilenski Strategies ............................................................................................. 5

SUMMARY............................................................................................................................ 6

INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE SURVEY ............................................................................. 8Direction of Missouri ...................................................................................................... 8

Demographic Breakdown ........................................................................................... 8

Gender......................................................................................................................... 9

Age.............................................................................................................................. 9

Party .......................................................................................................................... 10MoScout Tracking Index .......................................................................................... 10

Election for U.S. President............................................................................................ 11Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 11

Gender....................................................................................................................... 12

Age............................................................................................................................ 12

Party .......................................................................................................................... 13Election for U.S. Senate................................................................................................ 14

Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 14

Gender....................................................................................................................... 15Age............................................................................................................................ 15

Party .......................................................................................................................... 16Election for Governor ................................................................................................... 17

Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 17Gender....................................................................................................................... 18

Age............................................................................................................................ 18

Party .......................................................................................................................... 19Election for Lieutenant Governor ................................................................................. 20


Gender....................................................................................................................... 21Age............................................................................................................................ 21

Party .......................................................................................................................... 22

Election for Attorney General....................................................................................... 23Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 23Gender....................................................................................................................... 24

Age............................................................................................................................ 24

Party .......................................................................................................................... 25Election for Secretary of State ...................................................................................... 26



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Gender....................................................................................................................... 27

Age............................................................................................................................ 27Party .......................................................................................................................... 28

Election for State Treasurer .......................................................................................... 29

Demographic Breakdown ......................................................................................... 29Gender....................................................................................................................... 30Age............................................................................................................................ 30

Party .......................................................................................................................... 31

METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................. 32Questionnaire Development: ........................................................................................ 32

Programming and Pre-Test: .......................................................................................... 32

Data Collection: ............................................................................................................ 32Data Processing:............................................................................................................ 32

Rounding:...................................................................................................................... 32

Sample: ......................................................................................................................... 32

TOP LINE RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 33


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ITRODUCTIO

Founded in 2006, Missouri Scout is a private news service covering Missouri politics.

Subscribers receive daily updates every morning full of rumors, gossip, insights andanalysis. Lobbyists, donors, activists and elected officials all start their day with

MOScout. The intention of this survey is to provide an added benefit to subscribers -

letting them know where voter attitudes and opinions fall.

Motivation for Research

The primary purpose of this study was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliableevaluation of voters opinions about both state issues and the implementation of the 2010

Health Care Law. Specifically, this study was designed to:

Gauge the electorates perception of how things are currently going in Missouri Determine the current standing of the Democratic and Republican nominees for

the U.S. Presidential and U.S. Senate race in Missouri.

Determine the standings of the primary winning candidates of the Republican andDemocratic parties for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General,

Secretary of State and State Treasurer.

It is important to note that these results represent a snapshot of how voters feel today.

How voters think and feel about a candidate or issue when they go to a polling place inNovember may change as the result of learning more information about a topic.

Organization of Report

This report is designed to satisfy those desiring only a summary of the findings as well as

those who are interested in the details. For those who seek a synopsis of the findings,turn to the Summary section. The bullet point format allows you to quickly review thekey components and observations from the survey. The summary is followed by a

question-by-question review with more in-depth analysis including key cross-tabulations.

The methodologies for the survey are discussed at the back of the report with thecomplete top-line results and demographic information.

Acknowledgments

Wed like to thank Dave Drebes for the opportunity to execute this survey. His valuable

insight and wit make these survey projects an exciting venture. The image for the coverof this document was courtesy of a creative commons image from Walt Stoneburner.


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Disclaimer

The statements and conclusions are those of David Chilenski and are not those of

Missouri Scout. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the author.

About Chilenski Strategies

Chilenski Strategies is a small and focused survey research firm based in St. Louis,

Missouri, that provides senior level attention to every client. For the last fourteen years,David Chilenski has provided strategic advice and public opinion research for elected

officials, school districts, and other public agencies to assess community support. With

an understanding that research funds are scarce and need to be used effectively andefficiently, we use tried and tested methods to assist our clients in making decisions.

Prior to founding Chilenski Strategies, Chilenski worked as an associate at the Tramutola

Company, based in Oakland, California, where he specialized in education measures andissue campaigns. An experienced researcher, Chilenski provided oversight and

management for a federally funded state wide research project for the Survey Research

Center at Pennsylvania State University. Additionally, Chilenski has provided crucialopinion research services for candidates for federal, state, county and local office as well

as issues to gain support for schools, hospitals and parks.

Chilenski received his M.A.(Research) in Communication from Saint Louis University

with his thesis focusing on time-series analysis. He also received a B.S. in Business from

Saint Louis University, graduating with summa cum laude honors. Chilenski is a

member in good standing of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.


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ITERACTIVE VOICE RESPOSE SURVEY

What follows is a question by question summary of the results:

Direction of Missouri

A majority of Missourians (55%) still say things are off on the wrong track, while 45%say things are moving in the right direction. In this survey we observed a small, butnotable increase in voters who are now saying that things are moving in the right

direction in Missouri. This is an improvement over what we have found in previous

surveys over the past year.

Question: In general, are things in Missouri headed in the right direction, or are things

off on the wrong track?

45.2

54.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK

Demographic Breakdown

Female respondents were slightly more pessimistic than their male counterparts.Younger voters and senior citizens were more pessimistic than those aged 50-64.

Independents more closely resembled Republicans when it came to this question.


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Gender

49%

42%

51%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Male Female

Age

44%

49%

43%

56%

51%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

37%

58%

42%

63%

42%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Republican Democrat Independent

MoScout Tracking Index

Its interesting to note that since we last tested this question, there has been a small but

significant increase in voters who are saying things are going in the right direction.

However, a majority of voters still think things are off on the wrong track.

3840

45

6260

55

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK


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Election for U.S. President

In the race for President, Mitt Romney is leading Barack Obama 48% to 47%.

Question: If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama,

the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican?

46.8 47.9

5.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Obama Romney Undecided


There was little difference between the genders. In all our questions, Democrats polled

better than Republicans in the age group 50-64*. As can be expected, partisan affiliation

is a very good indicator of support. Notably, Independents are breaking towards Romneywith only 9% of Independents undecided.

*Readers ote: The reason why Democrats had much stronger support in the 50-64 Age

Group is because Independents in this survey for this demographic strongly leanedtowards Democrats.


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Gender

46% 47%48% 48%

6%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

46%

53%

43%

48%

42%

53%

6% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

12%

91%

43%

85%

5%

48%

3% 4%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



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Election for U.S. Senate

After a heated primary in the race for U.S. Senate, Todd Akin leads Claire McCaskill

48% to 47%.

Question: And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin,the Republican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat?

47.7 46.8

5.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Akin McCaskill Undecided


There was little difference between genders. As in all our questions, Democrats polledbetter than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Independents slightly (1%) favor Akin

with 10% still undecided.


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Gender

47% 48%46% 47%

6%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

48%

40%

54%

44%

54%

43%

7% 6%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

85%

6%

46%

12%

90%

45%

3% 4%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



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Election for Governor

Jay Nixon has a significant lead on challenger Dave Spence. When tested Nixon was

leading the race 53% to 39%.

Question: And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay ixon,the Democrat or Dave Spence, the Republican?

52.7

38.5

8.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nixon Spence Undecided


In building a big lead, Jay Nixon leads in every sub-demographic except RepublicanParty members and has a 9 point lead among Independents.


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Gender

55%

51%

39% 38%

7%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

51%

58%

50%

36% 37%

43%

13%

5% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

24%

89%

50%

67%

3%

41%

8%9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



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Election for Lieutenant Governor

The race for Lieutenant Governor was the closest race tested in this survey, with Peter

Kinder leading Susan Montee by 0.2%. Kinder registered 45.6% to Susan Montees

45.4%.

Question: And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for

Peter Kinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat?

45.6 45.4

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Kinder Montee Undecided


By gender, Kinder leads among men and Montee among women. As in all our questions,Democrats polled better than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Independents favor Montee by2% with 15% of Independents still undecided.


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Gender

48%

44%46% 45%

7%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

49%

41%

46%

41%

51%

45%

10%8% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

84%

5%

42%

12%

86%

44%

3%

9%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



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Election for Attorney General

In the race for Attorney General, Chris Koster leads Ed Martin 46% to 45%.

Question: And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for ChrisKoster, the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican?

46.244.7

9.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Koster Martin Undecided


There was little difference between genders. As in all our questions, Democrats polledbetter than Republicans in the age group 50-64. Martin leads with independents by 3

points with 14% of Independents still undecided.


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Gender

47%45%

46%44%

7%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Male Female

Age

42%

52%

46%

48%

38%

47%

11% 10%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

15%

87%

42%

79%

5%

45%

6% 8%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



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Election for Secretary of State

In the election to replace outgoing Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Shane Schoeller

has a clear advantage over Jason Kander 46% to 37%.

Question: And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for ShaneSchoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat?

45.8

37.2

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Schoeller Kander Undecided


Schoeller leads in every demographic except those aged 50-64 and Democrats. 25% ofIndependents are still undecided.


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Gender

48%

44%

39%

36%

13%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

49%

37%

49%

33%

46%

34%

17% 17% 17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

83%

6%

42%

7%

78%

32%

10%

16%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%



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Election for State Treasurer

The race for State Treasurer pits incumbent Clint Zweifel against Cole McNary. Clint

Zweifel has a significant lead over Cole McNary 45% to 37%.

Question: And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for ClintZweifel, the Democrat or Cole Mcary, the Republican?

44.6

37.1

18.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Zweifel McNary Undecided


Zweifel leads strongly with males, and with those under the age of 65. Independents

favor Zwiefel by 1 point with 29% of Independents still undecided.


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Gender

51%

39%

34%

40%

15%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Male Female

Age

42%

53%

41%

38%

31%

42%

20%

16%18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-49 50-64 65+


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Party

20%

83%

36%

68%

3%

35%

12%15%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%



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METHODOLOGY

The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the

motivation for using certain techniques

Questionnaire Development: Chilenski Strategies worked closely with Missouri Scout

to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest.

Programming and Pre-Test: Prior to fielding the survey, the questionnaire was

recorded by a male with a Midwestern dialect. The integrity of the questionnaire waspre-tested internally by Chilenski Strategies before fielded. The script is available at theend of this document

Data Collection: The survey data was collected through Interactive Voice Response

telephone interviewing. Interviews were conducted during the evening of August 8, 2012between 5:30 to 9:00pm. The interviews averaged 180 seconds in length.

Data Processing: Data processing consisted of reviewing aggregated information for

inconsistency, coding and recoding responses, and preparing frequency analyses and

cross-tabulations.

Rounding: Number that end in 0.5 our higher are rounded up to the nearest whole

number, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole

number. These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbersthat include a decimal place in constructing figures and charts. Occasionally, these

rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparingtables and charts for a given question.

Sample: The survey was administered to a random sample of registered voters who are

likely to participate in the November 2012 election. Consistent with the profile of thisuniverse, respondents were recruited to represent a particular combination of age, genderand voting history. In the reviewing the final results, demographics were weighted by

gender, age and party affiliation to reflect the expected November 2012 universe of

voters.

The margin of error of the top-line responses displayed for the 663 respondents in this

survey is +/- 3.8%. Within this report, there are figures and tables that show howresponses to certain questions varied by subgroups such as age, gender and partisanaffiliation. Because the margin of error grows geometrically as the sample size

decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the small

subgroups.


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TOP LIE RESULTS

Respondents: 663 registered voters living inMissouri, with working telephones, who are

likely to vote in ovember 2012. The survey was fielded August 8, 2012 and has amargin of error of 3.8%.

Wed like to get your opinion about things in Missouri, this survey is sponsored by theMissouri media, using your touch tone phone, please answer these few questions about

the upcoming elections.

SECTION 1: DIRECTION OF MISSOURI

1. In general, are things in Missouri headed in the right direction, or are things off on thewrong track? Press 1 for Right Direction, Press 2 for Wrong Track.

RIGHT DIRECTION 45.2WRONG TRACK 54.8

SECTION 2: BALLOT MATCH-UPS

2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama, theDemocrat or Mitt Romney the Republican? Press 1 for Barack Obama, Press 2 forMitt Romney, Press 3 if you are undecided

Obama 46.8Romney 47.9

Undecided 5.3

3. And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin, theRepublican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat? Press 1 for Todd Akin, Press 2 forClaire McCaskill, Press 3 if you are undecided

Akin 47.7McCaskill 46.8

Undecided 5.5


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4. And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay Nixon, theDemocrat or Dave Spence, the Republican? Press 1 for Jay Nixon, Press 2 for Dave

Spence, Press 3 if you are undecided

Nixon 52.7Spence 38.5

Undecided 8.8

5. And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for PeterKinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat? Press 1 for Peter Kinder,Press 2 for Susan Montee, Press 3 if you are undecided

Kinder 45.6

Montee 45.4Undecided 9.0

6. And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for Chris Koster,the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican? Press 1 for Chris Koster, Press 2 for Ed

Martin, Press 3 if you are undecided

Koster 46.2Martin 44.7

Undecided 9.1

7. And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for ShaneSchoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat? Press 1 for Shane

Schoeller, Press 2 for Jason Kander, Press 3 if you are undecided

Schoeller 45.8

Kander 37.2Undecided 17.0

8. And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for Clint Zweifel,the Democrat or Cole McNary, the Republican? Press 1 for Clint Zweifel, Press 2 forCole McNary, Press 3 if you are undecided

Zweifel 44.6McNary 37.1

Undecided 18.3


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9. For statistical purposes only, are you a man or woman? Press 1 for man, press 2 forwoman.

MALE 44.9

FEMALE 55.1

10. What is your age? If you are under the age of 50 Press 1. If you are aged 50 to 64Press 2. If you are 65 or older Press 3.

Age 18-49 40.5

Age 50-64 29.2Age 65+ 30.3

11. Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent? Press 1 forRepublican, Press 2 for Democrat, Press 3 for Independent

Republican 35.9

Democrat 31.0Independent 33.1

This survey sponsored by Missouri Scout 314-255-5210. Thank you for your time.

SECTION 3: DEMOGRAPHICS

mo-sen, mo-gov chilenski strategies for missouri scout (aug. 2012)

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