mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ... · 9/24/2020 · mni political risk...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 24

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• The United Kingdom registered its highest 24 hour total of new cases on record on

September 23, with new 6,178 cases added to the tally, exceeding the previous high

of 5,490 new cases recorded on April 22. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak

to deliver a statement to the House of Commons later today regarding a new tranche

of economic support from the government following the imposition of tighter COVID-

19 restrictions coming into force today.

• The average daily increase in new cases in Spain across the past week to

September 23 stands at 11,314 cases per day, the highest seven-day average on

record. The total number of cases in Spain has risen by just under 100,000 in the

past nine days. PM Pedro Sanchez has raised the prospect of reactivating

emergency powers provided to the government earlier in the course of the pandemic

in order to enforce the stricter lockdown conditions in the capital, Madrid.

• Turkey’s case total increased 1,767 on September 23, the highest one day increase

since May 8. Turkey’s case total of 308,069 means it has the 19th highest caseload

globally, while the country’s death toll from the virus of 7,711 means it has the 22nd

highest number of fatalities globally.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 24. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

23-Jun 23-Jul 23-Aug 23-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 0945BST September 24. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,

Sweden and the UK not available. Brazil did not report new case or fatality data for September 23.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 31,779,835 262,748 21,990,216 975,104 5,563 3.1 0.89%

Argentina 664,799 12,625 525,486 14,376 424 2.2 1.74%

Australia 26,980 8 24,446 861 2 3.2 0.09%

Belgium 106,887 1,661 N/A 9,959 4 9.3 1.55%

Brazil 4,591,364 0 4,046,827 138,105 0 3.0 0.55%

Canada 149,939 1,084 129,850 9,294 8 6.2 0.80%

Chile 449,903 1,380 425,165 12,345 24 2.7 0.34%

China 90,409 10 85,304 4,738 1 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 784,268 6,731 662,277 24,746 349 3.2 0.90%

France 508,456 1,306 96,498 31,447 21 6.2 1.98%

Germany 279,025 1,613 245,706 9,423 18 3.4 0.64%

Hong Kong 5,049 3 N/A 104 1 2.1 0.19%

India 5,646,010 83,347 4,674,987 90,020 1,085 1.6 1.41%

Iran 432,798 3,605 365,846 24,840 184 5.7 0.76%

Italy 302,537 1,640 220,665 35,758 20 11.8 0.54%

Japan 80,009 236 71,547 1,525 6 1.9 0.55%

Mexico 710,049 4,786 601,611 74,949 601 10.6 0.60%

Peru 776,546 7,651 636,489 31,568 199 4.1 0.73%

Russia 1,117,487 6,330 926,663 19,720 145 1.8 0.55%

Saudi Arabia 331,359 561 313,786 4,569 27 1.4 0.17%

Singapore 57,639 12 57,291 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 665,188 1,906 594,229 16,206 88 2.4 0.25%

South Korea 23,341 125 20,832 393 5 1.7 0.43%

Spain 693,556 11,289 N/A 31,034 130 4.5 1.76%

Sweden 89,756 320 N/A 5,876 6 6.5 0.35%

UK 409,729 6,178 N/A 41,862 37 10.2 1.15%

US 6,933,548 37,330 2,670,256 201,884 1,098 2.9 0.64%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 24, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 23. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Argentina, Israel, Spain,

Peru, Colombia, Russia, UK, Iraq.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 23. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel, Montenegro,

Bahamas, Bahrain, Argentina, Costa Rica, Spain, Peru, Czech Republic, Moldova, Belize. Countries with population below

100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama,

Kuwait, Israel, Peru, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 23. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: US, India, Mexico,

Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, Spain.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 23. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Argentina, Montenegro,

Bahamas, Peru, Mexico, Israel, Malta, Costa Rica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cape Verde. Countries with population below

100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 23. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ... · 9/24/2020 · mni political risk...

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