mni political risk analysis us covid-19 tracker ......1 mni political risk analysis – us covid-19...

1

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US COVID-19

Tracker – September 3

by Tom Lake

Chart 1 –COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 3, and represents full-day data

submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. States with 10 Highest and 10 Lowest Number of New Cases in Past Week

Source: JHU, MNI, D-Maps. Data for August 26-September 2. States with highest cases (in order): California,

Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Ohio. States with lowest cases

(in order): Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Wyoming, District of Columbia, Alaska, Delaware, Rhode Island,

New Mexico, Connecticut.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

02-Jun 02-Jul 02-Aug 02-Sep

US

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % (RHS)

2

Table 1. US COVID-19 Data Table, Top 20 States for Confirmed Cases

Source: JHU, MNI. All data correct as of 0600BST 3 Sep, and represents full-day data submissions, rather than intra-day

figures.

State Confirmed Cases Deceased

New Cases in Last 24hrs.

New Cases Higher or

Lower than 7-Day Avg?

Fatalities in Past Week

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

% Change in Cases

on Previous

Day

Rate of Increase in cases (7-day avg)

Total US 6,173,607 185,973 39,408 Lower (-1,711) 6,285 3.0 0.64% 0.68%

California 721,281 13,150 5,664 Higher (+754) 768 1.8 0.79% 0.70%

Texas 641,855 12,919 4,134 Lower (-417) 984 2.0 0.65% 0.73%

Florida 633,442 11,374 2,402 Lower (-1,173) 794 1.8 0.38% 0.58%

New York 436,218 32,966 708 Higher (+27) 85 7.6 0.16% 0.16%

Georgia 274,613 5,733 1,916 Lower (-7) 471 2.1 0.70% 0.72%

Illinois 240,344 8,273 2,128 Higher (+196) 147 3.4 0.89% 0.83%

Arizona 202,861 5,044 519 Higher (+65) 252 2.5 0.26% 0.23%

New Jersey 192,595 15,950 305 Lower (-25) -3 8.3 0.16% 0.17%

North Carolina 170,553 2,741 1,129 Lower (-451) 171 1.6 0.67% 0.96%

Tennessee 157,831 4,984 1,502 Higher (+60) 187 3.2 0.96% 0.94%

Louisiana 149,838 7,678 956 Higher (+256) 96 5.1 0.64% 0.48%

Pennsylvania 140,532 1,781 984 Higher +214) 153 1.3 0.71% 0.56%

Massachusetts 129,182 9,064 294 Lower (-49) 103 7.0 0.23% 0.27%

Alabama 128,239 2,200 623 Lower (-580) 163 1.7 0.49% 0.97%

Ohio 125,767 4,166 1,161 Higher (+5) 170 3.3 0.93% 0.95%

Virginia 122,518 2,612 925 Lower (-67) 118 2.1 0.76% 0.83%

South Carolina 120,503 2,757 657 Lower (-327) 228 2.3 0.55% 0.84%

Michigan 114,468 6767 648 Lower (-40) 83 5.9 0.57% 0.61%

Maryland 109,319 3761 456 Lower (-87) 54 3.4 0.42% 0.51%

Nebraska 104,867 1,712 660 Lower (-98) 99 1.6 0.63% 0.74%

3

Chart Pack 1 –COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day

(5dma) The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting

from COVID-19 recorded in all 50 states over the past three months in each respective state.

The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each state.

Legend below can be used for all state charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Alabama

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Alaska

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000


Arizona

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Arkansas

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


California

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Colorado

4

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Connecticut

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000


Delaware

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


District of Columbia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Florida

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Georgia

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000


Hawaii

5

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000


Idaho

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Illinois

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Indiana

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Iowa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000


Kansas

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Kentucky

6

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Louisiana

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000


Maine

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Maryland

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Massachusetts

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Michigan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Minnesota

7

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Mississippi

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000


Montana

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Nebraska

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Nevada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000


New Hampshire

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000


New Jersey

8

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


New Mexico

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


New York

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


North Carolina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


North Dakota

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Ohio

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Oklahoma

9

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Oregon

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Pennsylvania

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Rhode Island

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


South Carolina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


South Dakota

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


Tennessee

10

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Texas

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Utah

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800


Vermont

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Virginia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Washington

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


West Virginia

11

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 3, and represents full-day

data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Table 2. Approximate Timings of COVID-19 Data Releases in Selected States

State Time Range for Data Release (ET) Time Range for Data Release (BST)

Arizona 1115-1130 1615-1630

California 1330-1345 1830-1845

Florida 1030-1045 1530-1545

Georgia 1430-1500 1930-2000

New Jersey 1245-1315 1745-1815

New York 1115-1145 1615-1645

North Carolina By 1200 By 1700

Texas 1630-1700 2130-2200

Source: MNI, State Health Departments, COVID Tracking Project. N.b. All timings subject to

change or omission.

.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Wisconsin

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug

Wyoming

12

Chart 3. Map of US – States with 10 Highest and 10 Lowest Number of New Cases Per

Capita Over Past Week

Source: JHU, MNI, D-Maps. Data for August 26-September 2. States with highest cases (in order): Nebraska,

South Dakota, Iowa, North Dakota, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kansas. States with

lowest cases (in order): Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Colorado,

Massachusetts, Oregon, Wyoming

Chart 4. Map of US – States with 10 Highest and 10 Lowest Number of Total Recorded

Cases Per 100 Head of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI, D-Maps. Data for September 2. States with highest cases (in order): Nebraska, Louisiana,

Florida, Mississippi, Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Nevada. States with lowest cases

(in order): Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Hawaii, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska,

Washington.

mni political risk analysis us covid-19 tracker ......1 mni political risk analysis – us covid-19...

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