mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker … · 2020. 9. 7. · mni political risk...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 7

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• India’s total COVID-19 caseload increased by a record 90,802 on September 6, lifting

the country’s total number of cases to 4.20mn. This now exceeds Brazil’s case total

of 4.14mn, putting India in second place globally in the number of registed cases

behind only the United States. Indian health authorities also recorded the country’s

highest number of fatalities in a 24 hour period on September 6, with 71,642 added

to the total.

• The United Kingdom recorded 2,988 new cases on September 6, the highest single

day total since May 19. The UK is in the midst of a spike in new cases, with four-

figure increases registered on 13 of the past 14 days. This comes after a period of 25

days between July 15 and August 8 with no four-figure daily increases. At present,

the country’s new fatalities remain low, with 41 recorded in the past week.

• Brazil records 447 fatalities from COVID-19 on September 6, the country’s lowest 24

hour total since April 5. Even with the number coming in at a multi-month low, Brazil’s

new case and fatality numbers from coronavirus remain some of the highest in the

world. The country recorded the third-highest number of fatalities globally on

September 6. In per capita terms this was the 12th-highest globally in the past 24

hours.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 7. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

06-Jun 06-Jul 06-Aug 06-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b As of 1400BST September 7. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden and the UK

not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases Last

Week

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past Week

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 27,103,845 1,881,136 18,145,299 883,339 31,653 3.3 1.03%

Argentina 478,792 70,366 349,132 9,859 1,090 2.1 2.30%

Australia 26,321 575 22,601 762 137 2.9 0.32%

Belgium 88,367 3,325 N/A 9,907 13 11.2 0.60%

Brazil 4,137,521 275,210 3,522,155 126,650 5,110 3.1 0.96%

Canada 133,890 4,002 118,192 9,194 34 6.9 0.37%

Chile 422,510 12,536 394,399 11,592 290 2.7 0.43%

China 90,058 163 84,873 4,730 10 5.3 0.03%

Colombia 666,521 58,617 518,229 21,412 1,852 3.2 1.35%

France 347,268 31,455 88,088 30,730 111 8.8 1.43%

Germany 251,728 8,423 225,209 9,330 32 3.7 0.47%

Hong Kong 4,878 77 N/A 96 10 2.0 0.23%

India 4,204,613 583,368 3,250,429 71,642 5,922 1.7 2.19%

Iran 386,658 13,088 335,572 22,293 677 5.8 0.50%

Italy 277,634 9,416 210,015 35,541 35 12.8 0.51%

Japan 71,918 3,960 61,730 1,366 83 1.9 0.84%

Mexico 634,023 38,182 524,669 67,558 3,183 10.7 0.94%

Peru 683,702 44,267 506,422 29,687 791 4.3 0.92%

Russia 1,022,228 34,758 840,997 17,768 613 1.7 0.49%

Saudi Arabia 320,688 5,867 296,737 4,081 169 1.3 0.26%

Singapore 57,022 251 56,333 27 0 0.05 0.06%

South Africa 638,517 13,461 563,891 14,889 820 2.3 0.30%

South Korea 21,296 1,349 16,297 336 10 1.6 0.90%

Spain 498,989 59,703 N/A 29,418 223 5.9 1.26%

Sweden 84,985 1,027 N/A 5,835 11 6.9 0.12%

UK 347,152 12,685 N/A 41,551 41 12.0 0.55%

US 6,276,365 279,934 2,315,995 188,941 5,034 3.0 0.67%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Belgium

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Japan

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Peru

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Mexico

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 7, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 6. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina,

Peru, Russia, Mexico, Iraq, Indonesia.

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 6. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Bahrain, Colombia,

Montenegro, Peru, Israel, Maldives, Panama, Argentina, Kuwait, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 6. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama, Chile,

Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Maldives. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 6. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India, Colombia, Brazil,

US, Mexico, Iran, Peru, Argentina, South Africa, Iraq.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 6. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Suriname, Colombia, Oman,

Peru, Paraguay, Argentina, Panama, Bahamas, Iraq, Romania. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 6. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

UK, Chile, Brazil, Italy, Sweden, US, Mexico. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker … · 2020. 9. 7. · mni political risk...

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