mlc popular chart pack updated as at 30 june 2015 for advisers only
TRANSCRIPT
MLC POPULAR CHART PACK
Updated as at 30 June 2015
FOR ADVISERS ONLY
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This information has been provided by MLC Investments (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402), members of the National Australia Bank group of companies, 105–153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060.
This communication contains general information and may constitute general advice. Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or other specialist advice. Before making any decisions on the basis of this communication, you should consider the appropriateness of its content having regard to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au.
An investment in any product offered by a member company of the National Australia Bank group of companies does not represent a deposit with or a liability of the National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 or other member company of the National Australia Bank group and is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and capital invested. None of the National Australia Bank Limited, MLC Limited, MLC Investments Limited or other member company in the National Australia Bank group guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any financial product referred to in this publication.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all performance reported is before management fees and taxes, unless otherwise stated.
Important information
Chart index
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Chart title Slide Data source
Cash and term deposit rates aren’t always high
5 Term deposit rates over the past 10 years – Jana Corporate Investment Services, Reserve Bank of Australia. Data as at 30 June 2015. Based on banks’ 1 year term deposit rates ($10,000)
Shares vs term deposits 6 Income and capital return on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2011 - Based on calculations by Jana Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December and based on market index data. Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.
Growth of an investment in the Australian sharemarket over 20 years
7 Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested) - Jana Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index
Own or loan? 8 Investment of $100,000 in December 1989 - December 2014. Based on data from Reuters, ASX and Reserve Bank of Australia.
Consistency of dividend returns
9 Income on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2014 . Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.
Shares have outperformed cash
10 Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested) - Factset, based on market index data updated to 31 December 2014. Australian shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Cash: UBS Bank Bill Index
The impact of inflation 11 The value of $1,000 invested for 10 years (taking into account inflation) - Data calculated over 10 year periods by Jana Corporate Investment Services using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
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Chart title Slide Data source
Days out of the market will erode your wealth
12 Value of $10,000 invested over 20 years - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data as at 31 December 2014. The ‘market’ is the Australian share market and is represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.
Growing your wealth through a regular investment strategy
13 Dollar cost averaging calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services
Staying invested would have kept you ahead (‘the chaser’)
14 The value of $100,000 invested in 1980 - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 31 December 2014, based on market index data. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index, MSCI World Gross Accumulation Index ($A), UBS Warburg Composite Bond Index (ASAM) (Commonwealth Bank Bond Accumulation Index prior to September 1989), S&P/ASX200 Property Accumulation Index (Listed Property Trust Accumulation Index prior to July 2000), UBS Warburg Bank Bill Index (RBA 13 Week Treasury Notes prior to April 1987). Chaser assumes 100% investment in the highest performing asset class from the previous year. Balanced investor asset allocation: Australian shares:37%, Global shares: 24%, Australian Bonds: 31%, Listed property securities: 8%, Cash 0%. Income and dividends reinvested.
Impact of world events on the Australian sharemarket
15 The value of $100,000 invested in 1986 - JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 30 June 2015. Tick marks indicate 1 January. ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.
Following the latest trend – tech boom
16 NASDAQ Composite Index - Value of $10,000 invested in December 1984 (dividend income not included) - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 30 June 2015.
Comparison of returns from global shares and term deposits since 2002
17 JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 30 June 2015. MSCI World Index (hedged - $A). Term deposits: 1 year bank’s term deposit ($10,000) – Reserve Bank of Australia
Chart index (continued)
One year term deposit rates
Cash and term deposit rates aren’t always high
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With low term deposit rates you may not get the level of growth and income you need to achieve your goals.
Current RBA interest rate is 2.5% and a 1 year term deposit rate with the National Australia Bank is 3.2%
They rise just as often as they fall
8.3% July 2008
3% March 2009
Dec-1999
Jun-2000
Dec-2000
Jun-2001
Dec-2001
Jun-2002
Dec-2002
Jun-2003
Dec-2003
Jun-2004
Dec-2004
Jun-2005
Dec-2005
Jun-2006
Dec-2006
Jun-2007
Dec-2007
Jun-2008
Dec-2008
Jun-2009
Dec-2009
Jun-2010
Dec-2010
Jun-2011
Dec-2011
Jun-2012
Dec-2012
Jun-2013
Dec-2013
Jun-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 yr
Ret
urn
%
Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services Limited, Reserve Bank of Australia. Data as at 30 June 2015. Based on banks’ 1 year term deposit rates ($10,000).
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
Annual Income from Term Deposits Annual Income from Shares (ASX All Ords)
Capital Value of Term Deposits Capital Value of Shares (ASX All Ords)
Year ended 31 December
Income Capital Value
Shares vs term deposits
6
Source: Based on calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December and based on market index data. Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.
.
Capital value of term deposit does not grow
Income from shares grows over time
Income and capital return on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2014
Despite recent sharemaket volatility, the long-term trend for shares has been up
Growth of an investment in the Australian sharemarket over 20 years
Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick marks indicate 1 January. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.
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Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested)
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 $607,774
Australian Shares
Own or loan?
Source: Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December 2014. Based on data from FactSet and Reserve Bank of Australia . 8
Investment of $10,000 in December 1989 – December 2014
Income and growth of a term deposit with NAB vs owning NAB shares
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
NAB - Dividends
Linear (NAB - Dividends)
Term Deposits - Interest
NAB - Capital value
Term Deposits - Capital Value
Inte
res
t a
nd
div
ide
nd
s
Ca
pit
al v
alu
e
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Annual Income from Term Deposits Annual Income from Shares (ASX All Ords)
Year ended 31 December
Income
Consistency of dividend returns
9Source: Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.
Income on an investment of $100,00 in December 1980 – December 2014
Income from term deposits was higher initially, but income from shares grew significantly
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 $607,774
$287,341
Australian Shares
Cash
Shares have outperformed cash
10Source: Factset, based on market index data updated to 31 December 2014. Australian shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index
Based on an investment of $10,000
Based $10,000
Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested)
Over the past 20 years, an investment in shares provided significantly more growth than an investment in cash
GFC
The impact of inflation
Source: Data calculated over 10 year periods by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
11
Va
lue
of
inve
stm
en
t (a
bo
ve in
flatio
n)
Cash vs Australian shares
Days out of the market will erode your wealth
Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data as at 31 December 2014. The ‘market’ is the Australian share market and is represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.
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Value of $10,000 invested over 20 years
0 10 20 30 40 50$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$63,463
$39,640
$27,427
$20,036
$15,239 $11,853
Missing the best days in the market Australian shares and performance return
Value of $10,000 invested for 20 years (Dec1994 - Dec 2014)
Best days removedData: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index
return
return6.38%
return4.43%
return2.81%
return1.41%
return0.14%
8.91%
This strategy takes the guess work out of when to invest
Growing your wealth through a regular investment strategy ‘dollar cost averaging’
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Month Monthly investment
Unit price Units purchased
1 $200 $10.00 20
2 $200 $6.66 30
3 $200 $5.00 40
4 $200 $6.66 30
5 $200 $10.00 20
Total $1,000 140
• Dollar cost averaging helps you benefit from short-term market volatility.
• By investing smaller amounts at regular intervals you’ll buy less when the market is up (and prices are high) and more when the market is down (prices are low). You may end up with greater units than if you invested in a lump sum.
Total amount paid for investment = $1,000 Average price paid = $7.14 (ie $1,000/140 units) Investment value at the end of 5 months = $1,400 (ie 140 units at $10 each)
Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services.
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$-
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$3,415,607
$1,529,074
Strategic Balanced Portfolio The Chaser
Over the long term, staying invested would have given you better returns compared to ‘the chaser’ who is clouded by hype and reacts to the latest news.
Staying invested would have kept you ahead
Source: Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 31 December 2014, based on market index data. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index, MSCI World Gross Accumulation Index ($A), Bloomberg AusBond Composite Bond Index (ASAM) (Commonwealth Bank Bond Accumulation Index prior to September 1989), S&P/ASX200 Property Accumulation Index (Listed Property Trust Accumulation Index prior to July 2000), Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index (RBA 13 Week Treasury Notes prior to April 1987). Chaser assumes 100% investment in the highest performing asset class from the previous year. Balanced investor asset allocation: Australian shares:37%, Global shares: 24%, Australian Bonds: 31%, Listed property securities: 8%, Cash 0%. Income and dividends reinvested.
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Balanced investor –Staying fully invested
The value of $100,000 invested since December 1980
The chaser moves in and out of the market by investing in last year’s best performing asset class
Impact of world events on the Australian sharemarket
Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick marks indicate 1 January. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Global Shares: MSCI World Index ($A)
15
The value of $10,000 invested in 1986
Following the latest trend – tech boom
Source: FactSet and JANA Corporate Investment Services. Technology stocks: NASDAQ Composite Index. 16
The value of $10,000 invested in November 1984 (dividend income not included)
The impact of the tech boom and media hype31
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$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
Source: Calculations by MLC, based on data from Factset
Investors went into a frenzied buying spree. Invested heavily in companies without fully understanding the companies they were investing in.
Companies began to fold and investors started to panic
If you’d remained invested in global shares after Lehman Brothers collapsed you’d have almost $282,045 compared to $147,040 if you moved your money to a term deposit.
Comparison of returns from global shares and term deposits since 2002
Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 30 June 2015. MSCI World Index (hedged - $A). Term deposits: 1 year bank’s term deposit ($10,000) – Reserve Bank of Australia
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$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$282,045
$147,040
Global shares
Lehmans collapse