mlc popular chart pack updated as at 30 june 2015 for advisers only

17
MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

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Page 1: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

MLC POPULAR CHART PACK

Updated as at 30 June 2015

FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Page 2: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

2

This information has been provided by MLC Investments (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402), members of the National Australia Bank group of companies, 105–153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060.

This communication contains general information and may constitute general advice. Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or other specialist advice. Before making any decisions on the basis of this communication, you should consider the appropriateness of its content having regard to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661) and MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au.

An investment in any product offered by a member company of the National Australia Bank group of companies does not represent a deposit with or a liability of the National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 or other member company of the National Australia Bank group and is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and capital invested. None of the National Australia Bank Limited, MLC Limited, MLC Investments Limited or other member company in the National Australia Bank group guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any financial product referred to in this publication.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all performance reported is before management fees and taxes, unless otherwise stated.

Important information

Page 3: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Chart index

3

Chart title Slide Data source

Cash and term deposit rates aren’t always high

5 Term deposit rates over the past 10 years – Jana Corporate Investment Services, Reserve Bank of Australia. Data as at 30 June 2015. Based on banks’ 1 year term deposit rates ($10,000)

Shares vs term deposits 6 Income and capital return on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2011 - Based on calculations by Jana Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December and based on market index data. Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.

Growth of an investment in the Australian sharemarket over 20 years

7 Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested) - Jana Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index

Own or loan? 8 Investment of $100,000 in December 1989 - December 2014. Based on data from Reuters, ASX and Reserve Bank of Australia.

Consistency of dividend returns

9 Income on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2014 . Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.

Shares have outperformed cash

10 Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested) - Factset, based on market index data updated to 31 December 2014. Australian shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Cash: UBS Bank Bill Index

The impact of inflation 11 The value of $1,000 invested for 10 years (taking into account inflation) - Data calculated over 10 year periods by Jana Corporate Investment Services using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. and Thomson Reuters Datastream.

Page 4: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

4

Chart title Slide Data source

Days out of the market will erode your wealth

12 Value of $10,000 invested over 20 years - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data as at 31 December 2014. The ‘market’ is the Australian share market and is represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

Growing your wealth through a regular investment strategy

13 Dollar cost averaging calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services

Staying invested would have kept you ahead (‘the chaser’)

14 The value of $100,000 invested in 1980 - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 31 December 2014, based on market index data. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index, MSCI World Gross Accumulation Index ($A), UBS Warburg Composite Bond Index (ASAM) (Commonwealth Bank Bond Accumulation Index prior to September 1989), S&P/ASX200 Property Accumulation Index (Listed Property Trust Accumulation Index prior to July 2000), UBS Warburg Bank Bill Index (RBA 13 Week Treasury Notes prior to April 1987). Chaser assumes 100% investment in the highest performing asset class from the previous year. Balanced investor asset allocation: Australian shares:37%, Global shares: 24%, Australian Bonds: 31%, Listed property securities: 8%, Cash 0%. Income and dividends reinvested.

Impact of world events on the Australian sharemarket

15 The value of $100,000 invested in 1986 - JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 30 June 2015. Tick marks indicate 1 January. ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

Following the latest trend – tech boom

16 NASDAQ Composite Index - Value of $10,000 invested in December 1984 (dividend income not included) - Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 30 June 2015.

Comparison of returns from global shares and term deposits since 2002

17 JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 30 June 2015. MSCI World Index (hedged - $A). Term deposits: 1 year bank’s term deposit ($10,000) – Reserve Bank of Australia

Chart index (continued)

Page 5: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

One year term deposit rates

Cash and term deposit rates aren’t always high

5

With low term deposit rates you may not get the level of growth and income you need to achieve your goals.

Current RBA interest rate is 2.5% and a 1 year term deposit rate with the National Australia Bank is 3.2%

They rise just as often as they fall

8.3% July 2008

3% March 2009

Dec-1999

Jun-2000

Dec-2000

Jun-2001

Dec-2001

Jun-2002

Dec-2002

Jun-2003

Dec-2003

Jun-2004

Dec-2004

Jun-2005

Dec-2005

Jun-2006

Dec-2006

Jun-2007

Dec-2007

Jun-2008

Dec-2008

Jun-2009

Dec-2009

Jun-2010

Dec-2010

Jun-2011

Dec-2011

Jun-2012

Dec-2012

Jun-2013

Dec-2013

Jun-2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1 yr

Ret

urn

%

Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services Limited, Reserve Bank of Australia. Data as at 30 June 2015. Based on banks’ 1 year term deposit rates ($10,000).

Page 6: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

Annual Income from Term Deposits Annual Income from Shares (ASX All Ords)

Capital Value of Term Deposits Capital Value of Shares (ASX All Ords)

Year ended 31 December

Income Capital Value

Shares vs term deposits

6

Source: Based on calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December and based on market index data. Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.

.

Capital value of term deposit does not grow

Income from shares grows over time

Income and capital return on an investment of $100,000 in December 1980 – December 2014

Page 7: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Despite recent sharemaket volatility, the long-term trend for shares has been up

Growth of an investment in the Australian sharemarket over 20 years

Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick marks indicate 1 January. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

7

Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested)

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000 $607,774

Australian Shares

Page 8: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Own or loan?

Source: Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services as at 31 December 2014. Based on data from FactSet and Reserve Bank of Australia . 8

Investment of $10,000 in December 1989 – December 2014

Income and growth of a term deposit with NAB vs owning NAB shares

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

NAB - Dividends

Linear (NAB - Dividends)

Term Deposits - Interest

NAB - Capital value

Term Deposits - Capital Value

Inte

res

t a

nd

div

ide

nd

s

Ca

pit

al v

alu

e

Page 9: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

Annual Income from Term Deposits Annual Income from Shares (ASX All Ords)

Year ended 31 December

Income

Consistency of dividend returns

9Source: Shares – represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation and Price Indices. Income calculated as the difference between the return of the accumulation and price indices, multiplied by capital value. Term Deposit – represented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 12 month Banks’ Term Deposits ($10,000), prior to January 1982, the RBA 12 month Term Deposit rate ($5000 - $10,000). All data assumes income is not re-invested.

Income on an investment of $100,00 in December 1980 – December 2014

Income from term deposits was higher initially, but income from shares grew significantly

Page 10: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000 $607,774

$287,341

Australian Shares

Cash

Shares have outperformed cash

10Source: Factset, based on market index data updated to 31 December 2014. Australian shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index

Based on an investment of $10,000

Based $10,000

Value of $100,000 invested over 20 years (income reinvested)

Over the past 20 years, an investment in shares provided significantly more growth than an investment in cash

GFC

Page 11: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

The impact of inflation

Source: Data calculated over 10 year periods by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. and Thomson Reuters Datastream.

11

Va

lue

of

inve

stm

en

t (a

bo

ve in

flatio

n)

Cash vs Australian shares

Page 12: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Days out of the market will erode your wealth

Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services using data as at 31 December 2014. The ‘market’ is the Australian share market and is represented by the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

12

Value of $10,000 invested over 20 years

0 10 20 30 40 50$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$63,463

$39,640

$27,427

$20,036

$15,239 $11,853

Missing the best days in the market Australian shares and performance return

Value of $10,000 invested for 20 years (Dec1994 - Dec 2014)

Best days removedData: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index

return

return6.38%

return4.43%

return2.81%

return1.41%

return0.14%

8.91%

Page 13: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

This strategy takes the guess work out of when to invest

Growing your wealth through a regular investment strategy ‘dollar cost averaging’

13

Month Monthly investment

Unit price Units purchased

1 $200 $10.00 20

2 $200 $6.66 30

3 $200 $5.00 40

4 $200 $6.66 30

5 $200 $10.00 20

Total $1,000 140

• Dollar cost averaging helps you benefit from short-term market volatility.

• By investing smaller amounts at regular intervals you’ll buy less when the market is up (and prices are high) and more when the market is down (prices are low). You may end up with greater units than if you invested in a lump sum.

Total amount paid for investment = $1,000 Average price paid = $7.14 (ie $1,000/140 units) Investment value at the end of 5 months = $1,400 (ie 140 units at $10 each)

Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services.

Page 14: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

$-

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$3,415,607

$1,529,074

Strategic Balanced Portfolio The Chaser

Over the long term, staying invested would have given you better returns compared to ‘the chaser’ who is clouded by hype and reacts to the latest news.

Staying invested would have kept you ahead

Source: Calculations by JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 31 December 2014, based on market index data. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index, MSCI World Gross Accumulation Index ($A), Bloomberg AusBond Composite Bond Index (ASAM) (Commonwealth Bank Bond Accumulation Index prior to September 1989), S&P/ASX200 Property Accumulation Index (Listed Property Trust Accumulation Index prior to July 2000), Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index (RBA 13 Week Treasury Notes prior to April 1987). Chaser assumes 100% investment in the highest performing asset class from the previous year. Balanced investor asset allocation: Australian shares:37%, Global shares: 24%, Australian Bonds: 31%, Listed property securities: 8%, Cash 0%. Income and dividends reinvested.

14

Balanced investor –Staying fully invested

The value of $100,000 invested since December 1980

The chaser moves in and out of the market by investing in last year’s best performing asset class

Page 15: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Impact of world events on the Australian sharemarket

Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services, data as at 31 December 2014. Tick marks indicate 1 January. Australian Shares: ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Global Shares: MSCI World Index ($A)

15

The value of $10,000 invested in 1986

Page 16: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

Following the latest trend – tech boom

Source: FactSet and JANA Corporate Investment Services. Technology stocks: NASDAQ Composite Index. 16

The value of $10,000 invested in November 1984 (dividend income not included)

The impact of the tech boom and media hype31

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$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Source: Calculations by MLC, based on data from Factset

Investors went into a frenzied buying spree. Invested heavily in companies without fully understanding the companies they were investing in.

Companies began to fold and investors started to panic

Page 17: MLC POPULAR CHART PACK Updated as at 30 June 2015 FOR ADVISERS ONLY

If you’d remained invested in global shares after Lehman Brothers collapsed you’d have almost $282,045 compared to $147,040 if you moved your money to a term deposit.

Comparison of returns from global shares and term deposits since 2002

Source: JANA Corporate Investment Services. Data as at 30 June 2015. MSCI World Index (hedged - $A). Term deposits: 1 year bank’s term deposit ($10,000) – Reserve Bank of Australia

17

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$282,045

$147,040

Global shares

Lehmans collapse