1

Measuring and Managing Research Outcomes

National Research Policy Forum

Rome, 14th November 2012

Dr Michiel Kolman, Sr. VP Global Academic Relations, Elsevier

“ Science is not a luxury which is the preserve of developed countries... Technology and innovation are key to achieving long-term economic and social development

Science and innovation are recognised the world over as crucial to economic

competitiveness.” The Royal Society: Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011

Research is pivotal to economic growth and addressing societal challenges

2

Spending on R&D – OECD countries* Indexed values; 100 = Spend in 1981

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

* $PPP, 2000 constant currencies Source: OECD, Battelle

Annual growth: +4% (real)

Global R&D spending: $1.2 trillion in 2010

The world of research is large and growing

3

Source: OECD Developed markets include US, Japan, and EU27 Developing markets include China and S. Korea

Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) as % of GDP - Total

GERD as % of GDP – Developed Markets

GERD as % of GDP – Developing Markets

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

R&D spending as % of GDP has been relatively stable in developed markets, and is increasing in developing ones

4

5

Governments trying to protect R&D funding

€ 0.00

€ 5,000.00

€ 10,000.00

€ 15,000.00

€ 20,000.00

€ 25,000.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GERD of Italy 1996 - 2010

CAGR: 2.3%

Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2011

Number of researchers – OECD countries Indexed values; 100 = Number of researchers in 1981

Source: OECD; ISI; Scopus

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Annual growth: +4%

Global number of researchers: 7 million in 2010

Number of research articles published Indexed values; 100 = Number of articles in 1981

Annual growth: +4%

Number of research articles: >1.5 million in 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Annual growth: +3-4%

Growth in R&D spending drives number of researchers and research activity

6

Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Cyprus

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hong Kong

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway Portugal Singapore

Slovakia Slovenia

Spain

Sweden Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States

Algeria

Argentina

Armenia

Belarus

Brazil

Bulgaria

Chile

China

Colombia

Croatia

Czech Republic

Egypt

Estonia

Ethiopia

Hungary

India

Indonesia

Iran

Korea

Kuwait

Lithuania

Malaysia

Mexico

Morocco

Pakistan

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Romania

Russian Federation

Saudi Arabia

Serbia

South Africa

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Tunisia

Turkey

Ukraine

Uruguay

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Num

ber

of

art

icle

s publis

hed 2

008

Gross Expenditure on R&D, $m 2008 PPP

Growth in research inputs drives growth in research outputs

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Science is becoming more global

and more complex

1. Inter- disciplinarity

2. Collabor -ation

& Mobility

4. Data intensity

3. Emerging Markets

8

Four trends continue to increase the value of research information

Italy Research Strengths (2011)

Interdisciplinarity increases demand to • Use information broadly across

disciplines – Eliminate duplication – Build on existing findings, data,

models • Identify new cross-disciplinary

areas

• Nurture and leverage institutions’ inter-disciplinary strengths

Source: SciVal Spotlight, Italy map

Trend #1: Research is increasingly interdisciplinary

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Source: Scopus; The Royal Society – Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011

Percentage of internationally co-authored articles increased from 26% in 1996 to 36% in 2008

International collaboration drives • Demand to find collaborators to

leverage knowledge and equipment, and co-ordinate efforts

• Need to map collaboration networks

“Collaboration enhances the quality of research, improves its efficiency and effectiveness, and is increasingly necessary as the scale of budgets and research challenges grow” - The Royal Society, 2011

Trend #2: Research is increasingly internationally collaborative

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Drivers • Emerging economies’

consumption of research information and dissemination of results

• Developed economies’ need to use those results and collaborate

Source: Scopus; projections based on trend information

China

US

UK Japan Germany France

India

S. Korea Brazil

ROW

20%

4%

4% 2% 4% 4%

11%

12% 13%

3%

CAGR ‘00-’10

Trend #3: Emerging markets are rapidly growing their research activity

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Number of articles per year (‘000)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2010 2005 2000 1996

Italy 6%

Very high importance, very high satisfaction

High importance, low satisfaction

Ease

of

acc

ess

(Easy

or

Fairly

Easy

)

Importance of access

• Drives demand to host, store, curate and link to data sets – Subject-specific – Across disciplines

Trend #4: Research is increasingly data intensive

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Source: Publisher Research Council – Global Access vs. Importance Study (3,823 researcher respondents)

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Each year •3 million articles submitted •300,000 peer reviewers •1.5 million articles published •30 million readers •2 billion digital article downloads •30 million article citations

STM information companies have a unique vantage point on research

Contribution #1: Continue to register, review, disseminate, and preserve research outputs

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Contribution #2: Nurture and leverage cross-disciplinary areas of research

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Contribution #3: Facilitate collaboration

Fie

ld-w

eig

hte

d

cit

ati

on

im

pa

ct

Less than world average

> world but < UK average

Greater than UK average

Migratory researcher = permanent or returnee (2 or more years abroad)

Transitory researcher = less then 2 years abroad

Relative Productivity = articles per year relative to all UK researchers

Relative Seniority = years of publication activity relative to all UK researchers

Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation

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Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation

Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus

Global migration patterns

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Study country: UK

To-country % migration

USA 28.7

AUS 6.9

GER 6.1

CAN 5.4

FRA 4.8

ITA 3.3

Study country: USA

To-country % migration

UK 10.6

CAN 9.7

CHN 9.6

GER 8.6

South Korea 5.0

JPN 4.6

Study country: CHN

To-country % migration

USA 50.4

JPN 8.3

CAN 6.0

UK 5.5

SGP 5.2

GER 4.2

20 Source: 3823 researcher respondents, PRC global access vs. Importance study http://www.publishingresearch.net/

Publishers are working to facilitate access to experimental data sets

Link data sets to journal articles, e.g. Pangaea, CCDC

Support and drive guidelines with key partners, e.g. Wellcome Trust, NSF, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Contribution #5: Facilitate access to experimental data

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Contribution #6: Broaden range of research metrics and tools

http://www.projectsnowball.info/

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Summary

Quality information

Quality research

Quality of life