Managing for Development Results

- Role of NSO in Monitoring and Evaluation of National

Development –

Dr. Amara SatharasingheDirector

Department of Census and Statistics

The mission of the Department of Census and

Statistics is to collect, compile and disseminate relevant, reliable and up-to-date statistical information required to plan a better future for our country and the people of Sri Lanka, to monitor the progress of development and other socio-economic activities and to measure the impact of various governmental policies on the economy of our country and the living standards of the people.

Mission of the DCS

DCS compiles socio-economic and demographic data for

Sri Lanka

Generally these statistics are compiled at regular intervals

These statistics are useful for planning and monitoring of

national development programmes

This presentation elaborates how the poverty statistics

compiled by the DCS contributed to reduce poverty in Sri

Lanka from 22.7% in 2002 to 15% in 2006

The belief that Sri Lanka would not achieve MDG goal on

poverty has now been proved wrong

Role of DCS in Results Based Management of National Development Programmes

MDG: A set of measures to bring about an improvement in living standards of the people, by the year 2015, considering 1990 as the base year

Endorsed by 189 countries at the UN Millennium General Assembly in Sept 2000

Aim to halve the proportion of people in extreme poverty by 2015

Set targets for reduction in poverty, improvements in health and education, and protection of the environment

Millennium Development Goals

What is poverty?

Poverty is a condition in which

a person or community

is deprived of or lacks

the essentials

for a minimum standard of

well being and life.

Figure 1h: Poverty headcount ratio by district - Sri Lanka

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gampaha

Colombo

Nuwara Eliya

Puttalam

Anuradhapura

Polonnaruwa

Kurunegala

Matale

Matara

GalleRatnapura

Badulla

Kegalle

Kalutara

Hambantota

Moneragala

Kandy

Total

%

1990/91 2002 Target by 2015

Declined from 26.1% in 1990/91 to 22.7% in 2002

Targets already been achieved in the urban sector

Risen in estate sector households reaching 30% in 2002

Vary considerably across districts

Under these circumstances, it was thought Sri Lanka would not achieve the MDG goal on poverty

But because of decisions taken by the government based on the data compiled by DCS poverty in Sri Lanka dropped to 15% by 2006

Goal 1: Poverty eradicationHeadcount ratio

Measuring poverty: Income poverty indicators

Poverty has been mostly measured and analyzed on the

basis of a set of income poverty indicators : Headcount

ratio

A person is considered poor if his or her consumption or

income level falls below some minimum level (Poverty

Line) necessary to meet basic needs.

This approach is very useful for defining pro-poor

economic policies related to income such as

employment, wages, prices, taxes and subsidies

policies.

Headcount Index and Population Below Poverty Line – 2002

District Headcount index %

Population Below Poverty

Line (Thousands)

Colombo 6 143 Gampaha 11 230 Kaluthara 20 223 Anuradapura 20 156 NuwaraEliya 23 166 Polonnaruwa 24 89 Kandy 25 329 Kurunegala 25 384 Galle 26 269 Matara 27 219 Matale 30 136 Puttlam 31 232 Hambantota 32 179 Kegalle 32 265 Ratnapura 34 364 Badulla 37 303 Monaragala 37 155 All districts 23 3,841

Household Income and

Expenditure Survey is the

Source of data for estimation

of poverty statistics.

Poverty statistics are

disaggregated at district

level and above. Sample size

is not sufficient to estimate

poverty statistics at DS

division level or below.

DCS is therefore, conducted

a special study to compile

poverty statistics at DS

division level

Measuring poverty: Income poverty indicators

Small area estimation of poverty Household expenditure survey data cannot yield precise estimates of

poverty or inequality for small areas such as DS, GN divisions, for which no or few observations are available.

Census data are more plentiful, but typically exclude income and expenditure data.

In recent years, a widespread use is seen, in use of small-area “poverty maps” based on census data, enriched by relationships estimated from household surveys that predict variables not covered by the census.

These methods are used to estimate putatively precise estimates of poverty for areas with sample as small as 25,000 households.

Poverty at DS division level was estimated and findings were mapped

Poverty Mapping:Poverty mapping is a spatial

representation of poverty and it is useful for:

Identifying areas where development lags and where investments in infrastructure and services could have the greatest impact

targeting of public expenditures by identifying areas where the neediest populations are located

State- and local-level decision-making

Increase transparency of public decision-making, by raising awareness of poverty, igniting policy debates at local and national levels, and encouraging broader civil society participation in decision-making

Findings were very reaveling and useful

Areas that should be given priority could be easily seen from the map

Government selected 119 DS divisions to prioritize development programmes

Findings were even used in allocating funds to Divisional Secretariats

DCS went one more step forward to estimate poverty at next administrative level through an exploratory study

The income poverty approach deals with basic

needs whose satisfaction depends mainly on the

income ability of the households to acquire

these needs

There are, other important basic needs whose

satisfaction depends to a large extent on factors

other than income

Ability of a household to satisfy its needs such

as drinking water, sanitation, health, education

depends not only on its ability to pay for them

but also on their availability and accessibility

Measuring poverty: Unsatisfied Basic Needs Approach- An exploratory study -

The main basic needs areas such as education, health, were defined.

For each of the area, a set of indicators was selected.

Statistically all indicators were combined into one index called UBNI.

The UBNI is a proxy continuum measure of the level of poverty.

UBNI was used to rank GN divisions according to the different states of of poverty such as very high, high, medium, low and very low.

Measuring poverty: Construction of UBNI

Indicators used for the construction of UBNI

a) Percentage of households not having improved sanitary facilities (Percentage of Households not having

Water seal toilets.)

b) Percentage of households using kerosene for lighting

c) Percentage of households using firewood for cooking

d) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for wall (Materials such as Brick, Cabook,

Cement blocks, etc. were classified as permanent materials.)

e) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for floor (Materials such as Cement, Terrazzo,

Tile, Granite, etc. were classified as permanent materials.)

f) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for roof (Materials such as Tile, Asbestos,

Concrete, Metal sheets etc were classified as permanent materials.)

g) Percentage of household heads who have not passed G.C.E. A/L or above

h) Percentage of household heads who are not paid employees (Paid employees are those who work for wages/

salaries and who work 52 weeks per year.)

i) Percentage household members aged 20 years and above who have not passed G.C.E. A/L and above

examinations

Scatter diagram: UBNI and Headcount ratio at DS division level

District DS GN

With improved sanitary facilities

Using kerosene

for lighting

Using firewood

for cooking

With permanent materials for wall

With permanent materials for floor

With permanent materials for roof

Passed G.C.E.A/L or above

Percentage of persons

(age 20 and above) passed

G.C.E. A/L and above

who are paid

employees

Unsatisfied basic

needs index

Kandy Minipe Galamuduna 0.00 100.00 100.00 4.65 2.27 13.64 0.00 0.00 14.69 -2.85 Ampara Uhana Lathugala 2.38 100.00 100.00 0.81 6.40 25.30 0.00 0.00 6.35 -2.85 Anuradhapura Nochchiyagama Mahalindawewa 0.00 100.00 100.00 19.35 12.50 23.08 0.00 0.00 17.22 -2.53 Matale Karativu Himbiliyakada 4.00 100.00 100.00 2.00 12.00 72.00 0.00 0.00 7.65 -2.51 Nuwara Eliya Walapane Theripehe 2.83 100.00 100.00 0.98 18.57 76.24 0.00 0.00 1.89 -2.49 Ampara Lahugala Hulannuge West 0.91 90.91 99.09 4.55 14.55 70.89 0.00 0.00 7.27 -2.43 Nuwara Eliya Walapane Bolagandawela 18.89 95.56 98.89 6.98 13.79 60.47 0.00 0.51 2.22 -2.42 Badulla Rideemaliyadda Kandubedda 22.73 96.59 97.73 12.94 4.09 67.57 0.00 0.00 2.27 -2.41 Matale Dambulla Welangolla 8.63 95.43 97.97 24.35 17.62 28.49 0.00 0.22 7.11 -2.41 Siyambalanduwa Pahatha Arawa Pahatha Arawa 16.41 94.53 99.39 6.77 5.85 84.02 0.00 0.13 4.26 -2.38 Ampara Uhana Kahatagasyaya 0.75 94.74 98.50 16.15 16.28 53.62 0.00 0.00 11.28 -2.38 Puttalam Kalpitiya Dachbe 5.23 96.31 85.54 10.39 33.55 7.57 0.00 0.00 15.38 -2.36 Kurunegala Ganewatta Pothuvila 13.44 90.98 97.50 25.49 20.78 22.44 0.38 0.18 4.99 -2.35 Polonnaruwa Dimbulagala Maldeniya 5.34 96.60 98.06 21.43 14.07 68.06 0.00 0.00 2.43 -2.35 Kurunegala Polpithigama Rekevula 14.03 84.16 98.64 22.02 22.58 23.26 0.00 0.00 1.36 -2.34

GN divisions with highest values for UBNI (Most poor GN divisions)

Most poor 15 GN divisions as measured by UBNI

District DS GN

With improved sanitary facilities

Using kerosene

for lighting

Using firewood

for cooking

With permanent materials for wall

With permanent materials for floor

With permanent materials for roof

Passed G.C.E.A/L or above

Percentage of persons

(age 20 and above)

passed G.C.E.

A/L and above

who are paid

employees

Unsatisfied basic needs index

Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nawala East 89.24 1.74 9.77 97.16 99.21 96.75 14.62 9.35 44.77 3.87 Colombo Kaduwela Battaramulla South 73.72 3.78 10.78 97.59 99.60 96.38 14.37 10.12 53.50 3.97 Colombo Dehiwala Jayathilaka 75.23 12.84 10.89 85.43 99.53 94.45 13.29 11.51 47.22 4.02 Colombo Dutugemunu Dutugemunu 86.28 1.36 8.27 98.10 99.65 97.22 14.69 10.48 47.67 4.08 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Rajagiriya 76.98 2.18 8.99 93.48 98.87 91.63 17.30 9.08 39.92 4.17 Colombo Maharagama Wijerama 84.16 1.86 16.77 95.39 98.76 94.49 15.06 11.54 40.37 4.19 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Borella South 87.80 4.88 9.42 98.08 98.81 95.60 16.99 9.64 44.83 4.21 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nawala West 87.82 3.04 11.46 97.41 99.17 96.65 16.65 10.32 45.39 4.26 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Thimbirigasyaya 80.94 6.96 5.40 97.12 99.55 91.82 16.76 9.83 54.22 4.27 Colombo Dehiwala Dehiwala West 87.82 3.05 4.68 96.82 99.36 99.03 15.97 10.90 43.83 4.34 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nugegoda West 85.75 1.66 9.62 98.08 99.23 96.68 16.57 10.77 43.85 4.34 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Milagiriya 84.55 3.35 3.18 96.98 98.03 96.00 19.02 11.57 38.44 4.83 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Havelock Town 86.19 1.99 3.44 99.33 99.62 99.03 20.86 12.59 39.57 5.23 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Bambalapitiya 89.29 1.63 2.89 98.54 98.89 99.33 22.77 12.66 44.46 5.50 Colombo Kurunduwatta Kurunduwatta 81.74 10.48 4.69 94.56 99.10 89.86 26.10 13.78 47.95 6.06

GN divisions with lowest values for UBNI (Least poor GN divisions)

Least poor 15 GN divisions as measured by UBNI

Red tones indicate high-poverty areas andGreen tones are low or moderate poverty areas

Colombo District

Poverty levels of DS (Headcount Ratio) and GN divisions (UBNI)

Badulla

Red tones indicate high-poverty areas andGreen tones are low or moderate poverty areas

Poverty levels of DS (Headcount Ratio) and GN divisions (UBNI)

Poverty statistics at lower level of administrative units

were required for planning development programmes

DCS had been compiling poverty statistics only at higher

levels of administrative divisions

DCS conducted two special studies to compile poverty

statistics at lower levels administrative divisions

responding to the data needs

Government directly used the findings of these studies

and gave priority to develop most deprived areas

Most probably this may have indirectly contributed to

reduce poverty in Sri Lanka

Summaray