CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT OF SALMON

IN EUROPE (CASE: FRANCE, SPAIN, UK AND GERMANY)

Amund Bråthen, Norwegian Seafood Council

Oslo, June 2012

ab@seafood.no

DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON

• The numbers are representative

what the households are buying for

their home consumption.

• The numbers does not include

HoReCa.

• The data is panel data collected

through Europanel.

• Volume is presented as product

weight.

«EUROPEAN» INDEX BASED UPON VALUE AND

VOLUME IN FRANCE, SPAIN AND UK

POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SALES (VOLUME) OF

FRESH, FROZEN SALMON PRODUCTS.

95,00

100,00

105,00

110,00

115,00

120,00

125,00

130,00

135,00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ind

ex 2

006=

100

Indexed MAT volume for France, Spain and UK (all products)

Total fresh

Total frozen

Total smoked

Indexed MAT volume of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC

STRONG VALUE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH

SALMON – WEAKER FOR FROZEN AND SMOKED

90,00

100,00

110,00

120,00

130,00

140,00

150,00

160,00

13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Indexed value for France, Spain and UK (all products)

Total fresh

Total frozen

Total smoked

Indexed MAT value of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC

PRICE DECREASE FOR FROZEN AND FRESH

SALMON IN THE THREE COUNTRIES

90,0

95,0

100,0

105,0

110,0

115,0

120,0

125,0

130,0

135,0

13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Indexed price for France, Spain and UK (all products)

Total fresh

Total frozen

Total smoked

Indexed MAT Price of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC

MARKET FOCUS

YtD P05/April Fresh Frozen Smoked

Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price

France 53,9 % -17,3% 0,1% 5,3% -1,5% 4,0%

Germany 24,3% -8,2% -12,3% 9,2% 6,5% -6,7%

UK 11,6% 2,9% -1,4% 1,1% 34,3% -10,2%

Spain 29,7% -14,7% 1,3% 6,7% 0,7% 0,1%

DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF

SALMON – P01-P05

Volume and price development Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh, Frozen and Smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC

SALMON INCREASES MARKET SHARES IN

SPAIN AND UK.

STABLE IN FRANCE

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

13 2 4 6 8 1012 1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4

2010 2011 2012

Salmons market share of seafood sold for home

consumption (value based MAT)

France

Spain

UK

Johan har du et bilde av

en fiskedisk med laks…

FRANCE

YTD P05 AVERAGE FRESH FISH PRICES IN

FRANCE

Price for fresh fish Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

5,43 5,57

7,50 8,70 8,99

9,59 9,94 10,05 10,43 10,79 11,08 11,44 11,67 11,94 11,95 12,15 12,18 12,50

13,28 13,44

14,33 14,38 14,63

17,55 17,65 17,83

18,76 19,34

MACKEREL

SARDINES

PANGAS

HAKE

KIPPER

PLAICE

TROUT

COALFISH

SEABREAM

LING

MORUE

PERCH

WHITING

SAUMONETTE

OTHER FISH

DAB

POLLACK

Grand Total

RAY

SEA BASS

HADDOCK

COD

SALMON

SCORPION FISH

ANGLER

RED MULLET

SOLE

TUNA

YtD P05 2011

5,85 5,92

7,65 9,48 9,52 9,96 10,05 10,20

10,91 11,01 11,04 11,13 11,52 11,83 12,00 12,16 12,44 12,91 12,92 13,01 13,38

14,40 14,88

17,60 18,01 18,56

19,52 21,45

SARDINES

MACKEREL

PANGAS

TROUT

HAKE

COALFISH

KIPPER

PLAICE

LING

SEABREAM

POLLACK

SAUMON…

MORUE

PERCH

SALMON

WHITING

Grand Total

DAB

RAY

OTHER…

HADDOCK

COD

SEA BASS

ANGLER

SOLE

RED…

TUNA

SCORPI…

YtD P05 2012

PRICE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH

FISH IN FRANCE (P01-P05)

Cod

Seabream

Haddock

Kipper

Ling Ling

Pollack

Coalfish

Angler

Mackerel

Whiting Hake

Morue

Pangas Perch

Plaice

Ray

Red Mullet

Sardines

Salmon

Sole

Tuna

-45,0

-35,0

-25,0

-15,0

-5,0

5,0

15,0

25,0

35,0

45,0

55,0

65,0

-25,00 -20,00 -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00

Vo

lum

e

dev

elo

pm

en

t

Price development

Price for fresh fish Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC

LESS IS SOLD UNDER 10 EURO IN Q112 THAN IN .

Q411

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2009 2010 2011 2012

Volume sold of fresh salmon in different average price levels.

16+

14-15,99

12-13,99

10-11,99

7-9,99

FRESH SALMON IS BACK ON PROMOTION.

Photo: Carrefour

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Volume = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)* Average kilo purchased in the period (AWP)

Value (alternative 1) = Volume * Price

Value (alternative 2) = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)*(Average expenditure of the purchase (AWE

(AWP*Price))

SOME DEFINITIONS

POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON IN FRANCE

FROM 2011 TO 2012 – ALSO HIGHER THAN 2010

€

Penetration %

AW Price / Kg

AW Purchase

1,13 1,44

AW Expenditure

13,9 11,5

15,7 16,5

22,5 27,2

+20,7%

1,38

11,8

16,3

26,6

-15,3%

2010 2011 2012

Period: P01-P05

+27,4% -18,1%

5,1% -3,6%

-17,2% 17,8%

STRONG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ALL AREAS

FOR FRESH SALMON IN SPAIN.

€

Penetration %

AW Price / Kg

AW Purchase

2,49 2,96

AW Expenditure

9,5 8,1

23,6 23,9

28,8 31,4

2,66

8,4

22,4

27,2

2010 2011 2012

9,0% 5,9%

+18,9% -6,4%

5,4%

-14,7% 13,1%

1,3%

Period: P01-P05

€ Penetration % AW Price / Kg AW Purchase AW Expenditure

Fresh salmon +21% +5% +28% -17%

Frozen salmon +4% +2% -3% +5%

Smoked salmon 0% +2% -2% +4%

France – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012

Fresh salmon +9% +1% +19% -15%

Frozen salmon -4% +12% +5% +7%

Smoked salmon -5% +5% +5% +0%

Spain – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012

Period: P01-P05

TOTAL SEAFOOD IN SPAIN

€

Penetration %

AW Price / Kg

AW Purchase

26,7 26,1

AW Expenditure

7,04 7,00

187,8 182,5

96,6 96,9

28,0

6,80

188,8

95,8

2010 2011 2012

0,3% 0,8%

-2,8% -0,5%

3,5%

-2,2% -4,6%

-0,6%

Period: P01-P05

FRESH FISH IN FRANCE HAS A POSITVE

DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS THAN FOR SALMON.

€

Penetration %

AW Price / Kg

AW Purchase

3,23 3,33

AW Expenditure

12,4 12,3

40,1 40,9

55,9 56,2

3,47

11,6

40,2

58,0

2010 2011 2012

0,5% -3,6%

+2,0% -0,2%

6,9%

3,1% -6,9%

-0,8%

Period: P01-P05

1. Strong positive development for fresh salmon. Volume is up and prices are

down.

2. Positive tendences for smoked salmon, more variation for frozen salmon.

3. Penetration and expenditure are increasing for fresh salmon in France and

Spain.

SUMMARY