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IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglaries Simin Cai Institutionen för informationsteknologi Department of Information Technology

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Page 1: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

IT 15073

Examensarbete 30 hpOktober 2015

Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglaries

Simin Cai

Institutionen för informationsteknologiDepartment of Information Technology

Page 2: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 3: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

Teknisk- naturvetenskaplig fakultet UTH-enheten Besöksadress: Ångströmlaboratoriet Lägerhyddsvägen 1 Hus 4, Plan 0 Postadress: Box 536 751 21 Uppsala Telefon: 018 – 471 30 03 Telefax: 018 – 471 30 00 Hemsida: http://www.teknat.uu.se/student

Abstract

Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish SerialBurglaries

Simin Cai

Around 22,000 burglaries are reported to the Swedish police in 2012. It is not onlyinefficient to analyze these records by human experts, lots of valuable informationremains hidden due to weakness of human information processing. Data mining is apromising technique to uncover hidden, unknown and potentially valuable informationfrom large amount of data. The goal of this project is to analyze burglary records and find crime patterns from aburglary dataset by using data mining and machine learning techniques. In this paperfrom the perspective of data mining I redefine the crime patterns by InternationalAssociation of Crime Analysts. Then a series of correspondent algorithms andtechniques are introduced to mine these patterns. A prototype is implemented toanalyze the provided dataset. Crime patterns are identified and visualized in anunderstandable and user friendly fashion.

Tryckt av: Reprocentralen ITCIT 15073Examinator: Edith NgaiÄmnesgranskare: Kjell OrsbornHandledare: Martin Boldt, Yan Liu

Page 4: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 10: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 11: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 12: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 13: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 14: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 16: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 17: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 18: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 19: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 20: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 21: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 22: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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

Page 29: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

-:""

Records within user specified time period and area fetched

For each record, a list of user specified places populated within a specified radius of this record

Places sorted according to the number of burglary cases in surrounding area

Hot places, as well as associated cases, displayed on map

An index map, <key:case, value:place> created

An index map, <key:place, value:case> created

"

X,1*'7"?#"4%/6<5,5"8()76"F('"M(&"I6/+7"A/&&7'%5"

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

Records within user specified time period and area fetched

Features selected, minsupp and minconf set by user

Apriori Association rule mining

Frequent patterns discovered

Association rules discovered

"

X,1*'7"K#"4%/6<5,5"8()76"F('"+(''76/&,%1"F'7C*7%&"A/&&7'%5"

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-9""

I)F 7#28;&/&'9",%8'D"+'J%+/%&'NU("/%/6<5,5"&/505"/'7",%@(6@7)",%"&B7"/%/6<5,5"(F"L7',75"A/&&7'%5#"a%7",5"&("F,%)"'7+(')5"UB,+B"/'7"5,8,6/'"&("/"A'(@,)7)"+',87"+/57#"NB7"(&B7'",5"&("F,%)"+6*5&7'5\"UB,+B"8/<",%),+/&7"+',875"+(88,&&7)"O<"&B7"5/87"+',8,%/6\"/8(%1"/"5767+&7)")/&/57&#"

!"#"%(*")3',&(*67'#.8&%'

X,1*'7"J"5B(U5"&B7"8()76"&(")("5,8,6/',&<"57/'+B#"H57'5"/'7"/66(U7)"&("57&"&,87"/%)"17(1'/AB,+"+(%5&'/,%&5]"(%6<"&B7"+/575"UB,+B"B/AA7%7)"U,&B,%"/"5A7+,F,7)"&,87"U,%)(U"/%)"U,&B,%"/"5A7+,F,7)"17(1'/AB,+/6"/'7/"/'(*%)"&B7"&/'17&"+/57"/'7"+(%5,)7'7)" 5,8,6/' #"H57'5"/'7"/65("/66(U7)"&("5767+&"5A7+,F,+"F7/&*'75"&("+(8A*&7"&B7"5,8,6/',&<#"45"),5+*557)",%"L7+&,(%"E#-\"i/++/')"+(7FF,+,7%&",5"5767+&7)"/5"&B7"5,8,6/',&<"87/5*'787%&#"

Features selected for similarity measurement

Target record imported by user

Records meeting time and geographic constraints fetched

For each record, similarity to target record computed

K most similar record produced

Features selected for similarity measurement

"

X,1*'7"J#"4%/6<5,5"8()76"F('"5,8,6/',&<"57/'+B"

"

-%2,)&*'(+(%3,",'

45"5B(U%",%"X,1*'7"V\"*57'5"/'7"/66(U7)"&("5767+&"F7/&*'75"F('"+6*5&7'"/%/6<5,5#"45"),5+*557)",%"L7+&,(%"E#-\"/"87&B()"*5,%1"gT37/%5ll",5"/AA6,7)"&(")("+6*5&7'"/%/6<5,5#"gT37/%5ll"/'7"F,'5&"'*%"/"%*8O7'"(F"&,875"U,&B"),FF7'7%&"0#"NB7"+(''75A(%),%1"LLW"(F"7/+B"'*%",5"+(8A*&7)"/%)"'7+(')7)\"/%)"&B7%"/%"LLW"+*'@7",5"A6(&&7)#"NB7"0"/&"&B7"76O(U"A(,%&"(%"&B7"LLW"+*'@7",5"+(%5,)7'7)"/5"&B7"(A&,8/6"0\"UB,+B",5"*57)"&(")("&B7"F,%/6"+6*5&7',%1"*5,%1"gT37/%5ll#""

Page 31: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

-E""

Records within user specified time period and area fetched

K-Means++ run a number of times with different k. SSE recorded for

each k

Features selected for clustering

The elbow point in SSE curve chosen as the best g(A&

K-Means++ with the g(A&

g(A&""+6*5&7'5"F(*%)"

X,1*'7"V#"4%/6<5,5"8()76"F('"+6*5&7'"/%/6<5,5"

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Page 32: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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L) H+"$"$;?%',%&/4#'

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9:;4'

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NB7"A'(&(&<A7"&/075"+6/5575" $%5&/%+75 \" $%5&/%+7 "/%)" 4&&',O*&7 "F'(8">Wg4"/5"O/5,+")/&/"5&'*+&*'75"F('")/&/"57&5\")/&/"&*A675"/%)"/&&',O*&75"'75A7+&,@76<#"X,6&7'5",%">Wg4"/'7"*57)"&("A7'F('8")/&/"A'(+755,%1#""

<../%&'=($,'4>?''

f((167"3/A5"4I$"_::`",5"/"57&"(F"i/@/5+',A&"6,O'/'<"A'(@,)7)"&(")7@76(A7'5"O<"f((167#".<"*5,%1"&B757"6,O'/',75\"f((167"8/A5"U,&B"/"@/',7&<"(F"F*%+&,(%/6,&,75"+/%"O7"78O7))7)",%&("U7O5,&75"/%)"/AA6,+/&,(%5#""

NB,5"A'(&(&<A7"*575"f((167"3/A5"4I$"&("6(/)"/"8/A"/%)"),5A6/<"+',875"(%"&B7"8/A#">,&B"&B7"B76A"(F"M7/&8/AP/<7'",%"@,5*/6,R/&,(%"6,O'/'<"/"+',87"B7/&"8/A",5"+'7/&7)"F'(8"+',87")/&/"57&#".<"*5,%1"&B7"A6/+75"6,O'/'<"A'(@,)7)"O<"f((167"3/A5"4I$\")7@76(A7'5"/'7"/O67"&("17&"&B7"6(+/&,(%",%F('8/&,(%"(F"A6/+75"UB,+B"/'7"5*AA('&7)"O<"f((167"3/A5"4I$#"

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@C*&&-7(*)"

Page 33: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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iX'77;B/'&"_:?`",5"/"F'77"i/@/"+B/'&"6,O'/'<"F('")7@76(A7'5"&("),5A6/<")/&/"U,&B"B,1B"C*/6,&<"+B/'&5#"$%"&B,5"A'(&(&<A7"U7"*57"iX'77;B/'&"&("+'7/&7"O/'"+B/'&5\"A,7"+B/'&5"/%)"&,87"57',75"+B/'&5#"

L)0 J;&$%9'2+.A/$%.$-+%'NB7"A'(&(&<A7"5<5&78",5")75,1%7)"/5"F(66(U,%1"bX,1*'7"!Dc#"

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LA'77" M(&"I'()*+&"

M(&"LA(&"

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Page 34: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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L)0)0 '52$2N2&%'466")/&/"/'7"5&('7)",%"/"3<LGP")/&/O/57#"X('"&B,5"A'(e7+&"U,&B"&B7"A'(@,)7)"O*'16/'<")/&/57&\"&B7")/&/"8()76"(%6<"+(%&/,%5"(%7"&/O67\"UB,+B"'7A'757%&5"/"O*'16/'<"+/57"/%)",%+6*)75"/66"/&&',O*&75",%"N/O67"9"/5"+(6*8%5\"O7+/*57"&B7<"/'7"(%6<"/&&',O*&75"(F"&B7"O*'16/'<"+/57"7%&,&<#"$%"&B7"F*&*'7\"&B7")/&/"8()76"%77)5"&("O7"7S&7%)7)",%"(')7'"&("'7F67+&"8('7"7%&,&,75"/%)"'76/&,(%5"O7&U77%"&B78\",F"8('7")/&/"/'7",%@(6@7)#"

L)0): O"4/.'82;%+'NB7"6(1,+"6/<7'",%+6*)75"5(87"+(88(%"*&,6,&,75"/%)"&U("8/e('"/%/6<5,5"8()*675]"N78A('/6\"5A/&,/6"/%)"5&/&,5&,+/6"/%/6<5,5"8()*67"/%)"L,8,6/',&<"57/'+B"8()*67#""

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Page 35: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 43: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 46: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 50: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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Page 51: Mining Modus-operandi Patterns of Swedish Serial Burglariesuu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:865532/FULLTEXT01.pdf · IT 15073 Examensarbete 30 hp Oktober 2015 Mining Modus-operandi

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