On  the Importance ofTechnology  Foresight

for  the  future  of  energy  

Prof Sirkka  Heinonen  Finland  Futures  Research  Centre,  University  of  Turku

MILLENNIUM  MEET-­UP    23rd September  2015  Aalto  Design  Factory,  Espoo

Humans in  Relationwith  Technology  throughMillennia

3

homo  faberhomo  ludens

Focus 2013

Triangle  drama  humans,  technology  and  nature  

crucial  for  all  nations,  societies,  governments,  cities,  businesses,  individuals,  and  humanity  as  a  whole.  

Modern progressNo  single  idea  has  been  more  important  than  the  notion  of  progress   — the  conception  that  our  imperfect  human  race  is  developing  in  a  constantly  improving  direction,  i.e.  progressing.

Progress associated with technological progress

ROBOTIZATION-­‐ Industrial-­‐ Service-­‐ Domestic-­‐ Pet robots-­‐ Android

©  athomaz.com

Technology  Convergence,  AI,  IoT,  BigData,  Robotisation

tekhne

-­‐ work

-­‐ -­‐ techniques

-­‐ crafts

-­‐ artThe ultimate  question concerning technology is  human/machine interface

Technology   is  the  material link btwhumans and  nature

Humans think we can master thisrelation

But we have not developedtechnology sufficiently in  harmonywith nature,   following its structures,  systems,  processes…

The  role of  technology has to  be re-­‐defined

Appropriate technology – adapted for  livability

Biomimicry

Technosystem adapted to  eco-­‐system

Futures research =  systematic,  holistic,  multidisciplinaryand  critical long-­‐term analysis of  futures topics and  alternative developments

Futures Research

Futures Research

Foresight

Foresight =  structured participatory debate about the  future of  complex issues

Technology  Foresight

PossibleProbable FUTURESPreferred

THE  RAPID  CHANGE  EMPHASIZES  THE  STRATEGIC  IMPORTANCE  OF  FORESIGHT    

Change is  not only rapid but also continuous,    increasinglydifficult to  foresee in  our complex world

We  are  living  the  age  of  globalization,  urbanization,  digitalization,  climate  change  and  resource  scarcity  

These  megatrends  are  making  a  significant  impact  on  nations  and  on  people’s  lives  

©  Sirkka  Heinonen

MI

“The  21stCentury  will  be  the  century  of  complexity”

Steven  Hawking    

”FuturesResearch is  business  of  complexity,  unpredict-­‐ability,  uncertainty,  surprise”

MILLENNIUM  PROJECT

CLUB  OF  ROME

The  Club  of  Rome’s  Limits  to  Growth  report    (1972)  paved  the  way  for  a  deeper,  systemic  understanding  

of  humankind’s   intervention  in  the  ecosphere.  

One  of  the  most  critical  systems  for  humanity’s  survival  is  embedded  in  natural  resources  and  energy.

futures awareness >>>>  energy awareness

The  future use of  natural resources and  energy is  affected bysocio-­cultural aspects such as  changes in  people's lifestyles and  value systems -­ equally important to  study as  technological,  economic and  geopolitic factors.• .

NEO-­‐CARBON  ENERGYTekes  project (2014-­‐2019)VTT        LUT        FFRC/UTU  

A new  renewable  energy  based  production  and  storage  system  is  being  developed  by  VTT  Technical  Research  Centre  of  Finland  and  Lappeenranta  University  of  Technology  (LUT).  FFRC  in  charge  of  the  horizon  scanning  of  the  changing  world  and  energy  landscape.  Innovative  foresight  tools  and  processes  are  applied  i.e.    Futures  Cliniques.  China  and   some  countries  from  Africa  and  Latin  America  are  included  as  case  studies.

§ 2050:  zero  emission  energy  system  has  to  be  in  place  if  global  warming  is  limited  to  +2°C.

§ 2030:  only  emission  free  technologies  can  be  taken  in  use.

§ 2015:  solar  and  wind  become  the  least  cost  options  in  large  part  of  the  World.

WHY?

/A  COMPLETELY  NEW  RENEWABLE  ENERGY  SYSTEM  WHERE  ENERGY  IS  EMISSION-­FREE,  COST-­EFFECTIVE  AND  INDEPENDENT.

NEO-­CARBON  ENERGY  is  one  of  the  Tekes strategic  research  openings  and  the  project  is  carried  out  in  cooperation  with  Technical  Research  Centre  of  Finland  VTT  Ltd,  Lappeenranta  University  of  Technology  LUT  and  University  of  Turku,  Finland  Futures  Research  Centre  FFRC.

Neo-­‐Carbon  Energy    Project  studiesa) a  100  %  renewable  energy  

system  of  solar,  wind  and  storage,  and  

b) the  social  societal  implication  of  the  new  energy  system

a  conceptdevelopedby Prof Pentti  Malaska(a  word play  on  degrowth)

unlike degrowth,  neo-­growth does not reject growth but emphasises itspositive connotations

1)  environmentally sustainable2)  merges economic growth with  cultural,  social  and  ”spiritual”  growth

-­>        an  attempt to  re-­establish a    holistic vision  of  growth.

Could  growth  be  defined  anew  – so  that  it  is  environmentally  sustainable,  and  instead  of  conventional  economic  goals  serves  the  overall  well-­being  of  citizens?  

Neo-­Growth

Four  Scenarios+Energy  implications

©  Sirkka  Heinonen

RADICAL  STARTUPS

VALUE-­‐DRIVENTECHEMOTHS

GREEN  DIY  ENGINEERS

NEW  CONSCIOUSNESS

EMERGING  MEANINGS  SOCIETY

In  the  future  meanings  society,  more  and  more  urban  functions  are  organised to  provide  meaningful  experiences  for  citizens who  become  active  urban  designers  themselves  – and  active  energy  prosumers!

©VirpiVaattovaara

Thank  You!  

Professor  Sirkka HeinonenFinland  Futures  Research  Centre(FFRC),  University  of  Turkusirkka.heinonen (at)  utu.fi

REFERENCES

Dator,  Jim  (2012).  Dream Society?  Ubiquitous Society?  No  Society?    Summer  Seminar by theFinnish Society for  Futures Studies.  Otava.

Heinonen,  Sirkka  (2014).  What is  Futures Reseach and  Scenario Thinking?    Lecture at  Universityof  Buenos  Aires  (UBA),  Departamento de  Computación 18th  November  2014.  During theSecondment at  FLACSO  and  CIECTI,  Buenos  Aires  (November  2014).  50  ppt  slides.  www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU

Heinonen,  Sirkka,  Karjalainen,  Joni  and  Ruotsalainen,  Juho  (2015).  Towards  the  Third  Industrial  Revolution.  Neo-­Carbon  Energy  Futures  Clinique  I.  eBook  6/2015.  Finland  Futures  Research  Centre,  74  p.  http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-­tutu/Documents/FFRC-­eBook-­6-­2015.pdf

Heinonen,  Sirkka  &  Ruotsalainen,  Juho  (2014).  Toward Ubiquitous Learning.  www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-­2014_final_net.pdf

Malaska,  Pentti (2010).  A  More  Innovative  Direction  Has  Been  Ignored.    In:  Understanding  Neogrowth -­ An  Invitation  to  Sustainable  Productivity.  TeliaSonera  Finland  Plc.  Helsinki,  p.  200-­210.www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogrowth.pdf