milk market situation - vlaanderen · 6/20/2019 · source : ms' communications to eurostat,...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 20 June 2019

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

+0.3% +0.4%

-2.8%

-10.8%

-1.7%

+8.7%

-2.3%-0.1% -0.3%

- 15%

- 10%

- 5%

+ 0%

+ 5%

+ 10%

EU Productions (Jan-Mar 2019 compared to Jan-Mar 2018)

20 June 2019

Jan-Apr2019

-6.0% to -2.9%

-2.9% to -2.0%

-2.0% to -0.4%

-0.4% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.2%

+1.2% to +2.1%

+2.1% to +4.4%

+4.4% to +9.0%

n/a+1.2

-2.2

-1.4

+2.3

0

+6.0

+8.6

-1.9-0.4

-2.1

-2.8

+0.6

-0.2

+1.9

+1.1

+1.0

+1.2

-3.2

-5.8

+3.9

-2.3

+7.9-3.9

-0.4

-0.3

-0.5

+3.2

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-4.6

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

20 June 2019

-5.0% to -2.8%

-2.8% to -2.0%

-2.0% to -1.1%

-1.1% to 0.0%

0.0% to +0.9%

+0.9% to +1.6%

+1.6% to +3.6%

+3.6% to +12.0%

n/a+1.3

-2.0

-1.4

+2.2

-0.2

+5.9

+11.4

+0.20

-1.8

-2.4

+1.1

-0.3

+1.6

+1.0

+0.8

+2.1

-2.8

-4.8

+3.6

-2.1

+7.1

-3.7

-1.1

-0.3

+0.2

+3.7

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-4.4

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000

Ton

nes

EU - Cows' milk collected

2016

2017

2018

2019

Jan-Mar 2019/18 : -0.1%

Last update : Jan-MarSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Mar 2019/18 : - 0.1%

20 June 2019

34.3

33.0

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to April 2019)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

20 June 2019

57.6

45.6

39.1

38.2

37.8

37.6

36.0

35.7

35.1

34.5

34.3

34.2

34.2

33.7

33.3

33.0

32.6

32.4

31.8

31.8

31.7

31.7

31.7

30.9

30.6

30.3

30.2

30.1

30.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT IT GR AT FI NL FR SE DE EU DK LU CZ HR BE SK SI UK* PL EE IE* ES HU PT LV RO LT BG

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk price 2018

Milk price 2019

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Apr 2019 vs Apr 2018 )

* : estimated figures for Mar 2019

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

20 June 2019

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

20 June 2019

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Latest price : 205 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +35%

210 210 210205

200195

190 188

0

50

100

150

200

250

NL DE BE EU Avg. CZ SK PL IE

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 9.06.2019)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

20 June 2019


20 June 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -31%


530

500

404 400 391 386 385 385 380

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

SK CZ EU Avg. IE DE BE PL NL IT

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 9.06.2019)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

I.P. = 221.75

20 June 2019

404

205

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

20 June 2019

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

20 June 2019


150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



20 June 2019


200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019

Evolution compared to same period last year : -7%


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



20 June 2019


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



20 June 2019

20 June 2019

100 477

4 331 2 743 1 260 749

-150 000

-100 000

-50 000

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2018-2019)Buying-in quantity & stocks

Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)

Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)

749

20 June 2019

1.1323

EUR/USD

2 425

2 2782 324

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000F

eb 1

2

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

20 June 2019

3 138

3 310

3 715

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000F

eb 1

2

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


20 June 2019

5 038

4 542

5 235

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Fe

b 1

2

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


20 June 2019

4 050

3 821

3 499

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Fe

b 1

2

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


20 June 2019

155

182

67

58

22 2315

119 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2018 2019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilExports

New Zealand (up to Apr)

EU-28 (up to Apr)

Belarus (up to Apr)

United States (up to Apr)

Ukraine (up to Mar)

273280

122132

110118

61

77

54 51

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Exports

EU-28 (up to Apr)



Belarus (up to Apr)

Australia (up to Apr)

20 June 2019

260

348

260

222

138146

73

0

54 56

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Exports

EU-28 (up to Apr)



Mexico (no data 2019)


492

601

12694

35 4029 2125 14

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P. Exports


EU-28 (up to Apr)

Uruguay (up to Apr)

Argentina (up to Apr)


20 June 2019

EU-28 Exports (1/2)

Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

102 102

120

135

162

137128

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 5%

BUTTER exports

2018

2019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

520

407

648695

579

780821

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 34%

SMP exports

2018

2019

20 June 2019

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

768 786721 719

799829 832

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

386 374390 401

382 393

334

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 3%

CHEESE exports

2018

2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 25%

WMP exports

2018

2019

20 June 2019

93

105

54

83

52 53

4345

41

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

2 018 2 019

10

00

to

nn

es

Cheese Imports

Japan (up to Apr)

Russia (up to Mar)


South Korea (up to Apr)


42

32

16

n/a

16

28

14.8

12.613.6

20.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2 018 2 019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilImports

China (up to Apr)

Egypt (no data 2019)

Russia (up to Mar)



20 June 2019

248

331

110

n/a

35 3631 302837

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P.Imports

China (up to Apr)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Hong Kong (up to Apr)

Sri Lanka (up to Apr)

Thailand (up to Apr)

118

n/a

100

132

73

n/a

3439

33

58

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Imports


China (up to Apr)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Indonesia (up to Mar)

Philippines (up to Mar)

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

48 52

80 7182

92113

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018 : - 23%

2018

2016

2019

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

68

136 139

96 105 9886

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2019 compared to 2018 : + 78%

2018

2019

2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

21 21 23 21 29 34 40

1000 Tonnes

Australia

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18 14 2240 47 44

57

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018 : - 15%

2018

2019


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018 : + 48%

2018

20162019


2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

236198 203

259 286331

360

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes#VALUE!

2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

168

235 253

200 184

247 280

1000 Tonnes

China

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes


2018

2017


2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

106 11395 101

185154 159

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

2018

2014


2016

2019

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes


2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

136155 146 145 159 147 160

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

406

619 671

347420 470 521

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

188142

204 224 224262

150

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2018

2017 2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

71 59 60 72 85 85 87

1000 Tonnes

Sri Lanka

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

64 74 81 75 86 87 104

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20


1000 tonnesJan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018 : + 1%

2018

2013 2016


2019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

235 236 232 249 258 273 286

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018: + 13%

2018

2016 2017

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

316440

321

209 223 226267

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

20182019

20 June 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

78 85 97 112 110 125 124

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

154 148 165200 205 183 176

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

20 June 2019

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source:USDA

Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2018 : + 0.1%

20 June 2019

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Apr 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : - 7.3%

Australian milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

20 June 2019

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Apr 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : + 2.3%

NZ milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

20 June 2019

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2374 June 2019

-3.4%

$3 423

Event 2374 June 2019

-3.4%

$3 423

Butter

-10.3%$ 4 805

Butter MilkPowder

-10.1%$ 2 807

Cheddar

-14.0%$ 3 950

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-5.7%$ 5 752

Butter

-10.3%$ 4 805

Butter MilkPowder

-10.1%$ 2 807

Cheddar

-14.0%$ 3 950

Lactose

+0.4%$ 897

Rennet Casein

+4.2%$ 7 201

Skim MilkPowder

-4.0%$ 2 436

Lactose

+0.4%$ 897

Rennet Casein

+4.2%$ 7 201

Skim MilkPowder

-4.0%$ 2 436

Whole MilkPowder

-1.5%$ 3 138

20 June 2019

milk market situation - vlaanderen · 6/20/2019 · source : ms' communications to eurostat,...

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