MilduraPassengerTrainTalktoMilduraRuralCityCouncil10August2017

DRBILLRUSSELL

HONSECRETARY,THERAILFUTURESINSTITUTEINC

StrongArgumentsfortheMilduraPassengerTrainLargepopulationunserved (60,000Mildura-Wentworth- 75,000incorridor130,000intri-stateregion)– Milduraissteadilygrowinginpopulation

OnlyreallylargeVicpopulationcentrewithoutatrain- equity

MostisolatedmajorcommunityinVictoria

Existingpublicpassengerservicesinadequate◦ Coachesunpopular- circuitous,slow,pooraccessetc.,,inadequateaccessfordisabled,elderly.◦ Airscheduleslimited,e.g.thereisnoplanethatleavesthetownforanywhereafter12noonSaturday!◦ Airticketsexpensive(Qantasstartsat$336returntoMelb forRediDealor$700returnforaflexibleticket;MilduratoSydneyis$760and

$1000respectively;Adelaide$766and$1300) -

Highwayaccesspoor(MVandSunraysiaHighwaysrough,Calderheavilytrafficked;NSWhighwaysdangerous,nodividedhighwayscloserthanBendigoorBallarat)

Largedisadvantagedpopulation;largeSeniorpopulation,significantdisabledgroupforwhomtrains=bettermobility

Strongandundiminishingcommunitydemand(8500signaturesonpetition)

OpportunitytobuildonMurrayBasinandBallaratlineinvestments

BenefitstoMaryborough,StArnaud,Donald,Ouyen,Birchip,Wentworth(16communities)etc.

InterCity:RailFuturesVisionforRegionalRailDevelopmentinVictoriato2050

InSeptember2016,TimFischerlaunchedRailFuturesInterCityreport,ablueprintforregionalpassengerrailandpopulationredistributionfromMelbournetotheregions

Everymajorregionalnewspapercarriedthestory– some,liketheGeelongAdvertiser,literally“heldthefrontpage”fortheInterCity story

Therewaswidesupportforthebroadapproach.PassengerrailadvocacyisstrongacrossregionalVictoria

Inseveralregions,Councilshavegroupedtogethertodevelopcommonpassengerrailadvocacyvoices

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MILDURAMILDURA

WhattheRegionalRailNetworkcouldlooklikein2040…

MilduraRailwayCorridor

TheMilduralinereachedDonaldin1882,Woomelangin1899,andMildurainOctober1903.Thelineopenedon13November1903andwasextendedtoMerbeinon4July1910.

Mildurais571railkilometresfromMelbourneviaBallarat;Ballaratis119railkmfromMelbourneandtheraildistancefromBallarattoMildurais452km.(ViaGeelongthedistancefromMelbournetoMildurais608km).

Formanyyears,Mildurawasservedbyanovernighttrainwithsleepingcars;from1957to1967,adaytrainknownasthe“MilduraSunlight”operated;thiswasreplacedin1967byovernightservices,upgradedas“TheVinelander”inAugust1972.TheservicewaswithdrawninSeptember1993.“TheVinelander”didthedistancein10¾hours,atanaveragespeedof53kmh.(“Sunlight”wasslightlyfasterat10hours).

ThecurrentSundayeveningcoachtoMelbournetakesthesametimefortheovernighttripastheVinelanderdidin1985,althoughtherearesomefasterservices

TownsandcatchmentsservedbytheMilduraRailwayCorridorRecentDHHSSocialprofilestatistics,publishedin2015,showthatthepopulationservedbytheMilduraline(Maryboroughonwards)is:

7664760,000inMildura/Wentworthandgrowing

ThisiscomparablewithothercorridorsservedbyV/Linetrains

ItistheonlycorridorinVictoriawithabove70,000peoplenotprovidedwitchapassengertrain

Milduralineserves75,000people– similartoothercorridorswithV/Lineservices

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BEAUFORTTOKANIVA

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16TownsthatwouldbenefitfromareintroducedMildurapassengertrainBirchip

Carisbrook

Donald

Dunolly

Maryborough

Merbein

Mildura

Murrayville

NichollsPoint

Ouyen

RedCliffs

SeaLake

StArnaud

Underbool

Wentworth

Woomelang

GroupsinthecorridorwhospeciallyneedatrainAllthosewhocannot,orchoosenottodrive,ornottodrivelongdistancesAllthosewhocannotaffordairtransportThisincludes-◦ ManySeniors inanagingpopulation◦ Manyyoungpeopleincludingstudents,apprentices,trainees◦ Disabledpeople,includingthosewithlowvision◦ Thosewhohaveneverheld,orlosttheirlicences◦ Manyseasonalworkersunder457visassuchasfruitpickers◦ Indigenouscommunitymembers◦ Tourists andvisitorsnoteligibletodriveinAustralia◦ Recentlyarrivedimmigrants

Inadiversecommunity,thesegroupsshouldhaveaccesstoeffectivepublictransportthatisreliable,fast,affordableandprovidesgoodconnectivity

Forexample,seniors:UserfriendlypublictransportisspeciallyimportanttoseniorsintheMallee,wheremuchtravelislongdistance

Seniorsoftenhavemedicalrequirementstovisitcitybasedspecialists,andthiscanbedifficultorexpensivewithoutsuitablepublictransport.

Theyoftenhavefamilymembersindistantlocations

Eventoiletequippedcoachesarecrampedandinvolvestepsandconfinedtoiletareascomparedtoatrain

IntownsservedbytheMilduraline,21%ofthepopulationisagedover65

In8townsservedbytheline,over25%isover65

Inonetown7%ofthepopulationisagedover75andlivingalone,makingithardertorelyonothersfortransporttomedical,shoppingorfamilyactivitiesvitaltomentalhealth.

AgingofthePopulation

AAgeingofthePopulationInmanytowns,20-30%ofthepopulationisagedover65TheproportionofseniorsisincreasingAlthoughmosthave(orhavehad)cars,theyareoftenreluctanttodrivelongdistancesoratnightBetterpublictransportcansupportessentialvisitstomedicalspecialists,shoppingandsocialvisitsthatpreventisolationetcAGEINGINPLACEREQUIRESEFFECTIVEPUBLICTRANSPORT

SupportingSmallTownsSmallertownsdependoneffectivepublictransportservicesforaccesstomedicalservices,education,trainingandemploymentopportunities,andevenaccesstofreshfruitandvegetables.Goodcoachservicessupportingfastmainlinetrainshelpsmalltownstosurvive,andconnecttheirinhabitantstoregionalcentresandneededservices.

Costs

NWRAlastyearreleasedaCostBenefitAnalysisofreturningMildura'spassengertrain.ItestimatedtotalCosts at$176million,ofwhichthelargestsingleitemistheupgradingtoactiveprotectionof145levelcrossings.Asrailsafetyisnowtightlyregulated,thesecostsareunavoidable,andofcoursetheyareaninvestmentinfuturesafetyforthecommunity,providingaddedprotectionalsowithrespecttofreightrailtrafficontheline

Costestimatessuchastheseareofcoursespeculative,pendingadetaileduptodateprofessionalstudy.Afinalcostestimateislikelytobeconsiderablyhigherthanthis.

The2010studyestimatedcostsof$505to$1.264billionandthesefigureshaveover-shadowedsomeofthediscussionofMilduralinepassengerservicereinstatemente.g.byInfrastructureVictoria.Theseoutdatedfiguresastocost(andastotraveltime)needtobereplacedbytechnicallycompetentfiguresreflectingacompletedMurrayBasinrailprojectandcompletedBallaratlineimprovements.

Advocacyandaccordacrosslocalgovernments/councils/regionalpartnerships

PassengerRailadvocacyiscurrentlyextensiveinVictoriawithatleast9regionalgroupingatwork

Inmostcases,groupsofCouncilshavecometogether◦ Topresentunitedpositionstogovernment◦ Tojointlycommissionandbearthecostofnecessarystudies◦ Toconsultcommunitiesandensureownershipofproposals

InthecaseoftheMilduralineitwouldbehighlydesirableforallCouncilsalongthelineandnearittospeakwithonevoice(Mildura,Buloke,NorthernGrampians,CentralGoldfieldsandideallySwanHillandWentworth)

RegionalPartnershipsisalsoanimportantforumwheresupportexistsandcanbedeveloped.

Sustainedlocalmediasupportappearscritical,aswellascontinuousconsultationandinvolvementoflocalcommunitiesandcommunitygroups(e.g.WesternRailexample)

NewRegionalRailAdvocacyGroups4GippslandCouncilssponsoredtheGippslandRailNeedsStudy(BawBaw,Latrobe,WellingtonandEastGippsland)

8westerncouncilssponsoredtheBarwonSouthWesternPassengerServicesStudy(Ararat,Horsham,NorthernGrampians,SouthernGrampians,Glenelg,Hindmarsh,YarriambiackandWestWimmera)

6CouncilsaresponsoringtheBallaratRailActionGroup(Brimbank,Melton,Moorabool,Ballarat,Pyrenees,Ararat)

4CouncilsaresponsoringtheBorderRailActionGroup(Albury,Wodonga,WangarattaandBenalla)

5CouncilsaresupportingRailingAhead(Bendigo,Campaspe,Gannawarra,LoddonandSwanHill)

ThereisalsoconcertedactioninShepparton

TheRailRevivalAlliance(Geelong-Maryborough-Bendigo)isveryactive

AttractingStateandFederalsupport

StateandFederalco-operationwasthebasisofthe$440millionmadeavailablefortheMurrayBasinRailproject

AsimilarpartnershipwouldbehighlydesirabletosupportaMilduraPassengerTrainproject,buildingontheMBRP

TheCommonwealthGovernmentisapotentialfundingpartner:◦ Itprovidedmostofthefundsforthe$4billionRegionalRailprojectinMelbourne’swest◦ Itwasaco-contributortothe$1.6billionregionalrailpackageinthe2016budget◦ Ithascommitted$30milliontotheMelbourneAirportrailfeasibilitystudy

IntheStatesphere,thisprojectwillhavetocompetewithbidsandproposalsfrommanypartsoftheState

MBRPco-operationprovidesavaluablefoundation

LeadTime

UntiladetailedprofessionalstudyisundertakenandaGovernmentcommitmentismade,itisimpossibletobepreciseastotheleadtimerequired,orthespeed,frequencyandrouteoftheservice.

AnimportantrequirementwillbethattheimpendingNewGenerationRegionalTrainhasaStandardGaugevariant.ThiswillalsobeneededforAlburyservicesaswellasMilduraandastandardgaugeservicingandstablingfacilitywillbeneededasthenorthweststandardizationproceeds

Anearlypackageofworkscouldinvolveupgradingcrossingprotectionatthe145levelcrossingsnorthofMaryborough

Acrediblefeasibilitystudy◦ Jointlysponsoredby◦ -Councils◦ Statebodies(RDV,TfV)etc◦ ThesebodiesrepresentedonaSteeringCommitteeandtobetheClient

◦ Undertakenbycredible,independentexperts◦ Highlevelofrailoperationalexpertiserequired◦ Abletoanalysesocial,health,economicissues◦ Lookatwholepassengerservice– railandcoachintegration◦ Approachthatrespects/visitsallmajorcommunities◦ Timescale– about12monthsfrominception

APlausibleModelfromtheStudyTheStudyneedstodemonstratethatareinstatedMildurapassengertrain:-

*meetssignificantsocialandeconomicneeds

*isaffordable(costsconsistentwithexperienceelsewhereinVictoria)

*candeliverreasonablejourneytime(lessthan7hoursMelb-Mildura)

*canserveallcommunitiesinthecatchmentthroughgoodcoachconnections

*canbeprovidedwithrollingstockthatisfitforpurpose

ClosingObservationsThereisgrowingsupportforthereturnoftheMilduraPassengerTrain.Itisaworthwhileobjectivethatcanbeachieved,but-◦ Communitiesandcouncilsmustbeunitedintheiradvocacy◦ Theobjectiveshouldbeatrainthatisfastandfitforpurpose– journeymustbesignificantlybetterthancurrentalternatives(<7hoursjourneytime)

◦ Thecostissubstantial– butcomparableinscalewithothermajorregionalroadandrailprojects◦ Thesocialandeconomicbenefitsarewide-ranging◦ Adetailedprofessionalstudyisneeded,preferablywithgovernmentinsidethetent

QuestionsandDiscussion

ThetrainbelowismanufacturedbyAlstom,whohaveafactoryatBallarat,andcurrentlysupplytheVictorianGovernmentasdoBombardier,whohaveafactoryatDandenong.ARequestforTendersforthe“NewGenerationRegionalTrain”isexpectedtobeannouncedshortly.