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MilduraPassengerTrainTalktoMilduraRuralCityCouncil10August2017
DRBILLRUSSELL
HONSECRETARY,THERAILFUTURESINSTITUTEINC
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StrongArgumentsfortheMilduraPassengerTrainLargepopulationunserved (60,000Mildura-Wentworth- 75,000incorridor130,000intri-stateregion)– Milduraissteadilygrowinginpopulation
OnlyreallylargeVicpopulationcentrewithoutatrain- equity
MostisolatedmajorcommunityinVictoria
Existingpublicpassengerservicesinadequate◦ Coachesunpopular- circuitous,slow,pooraccessetc.,,inadequateaccessfordisabled,elderly.◦ Airscheduleslimited,e.g.thereisnoplanethatleavesthetownforanywhereafter12noonSaturday!◦ Airticketsexpensive(Qantasstartsat$336returntoMelb forRediDealor$700returnforaflexibleticket;MilduratoSydneyis$760and
$1000respectively;Adelaide$766and$1300) -
Highwayaccesspoor(MVandSunraysiaHighwaysrough,Calderheavilytrafficked;NSWhighwaysdangerous,nodividedhighwayscloserthanBendigoorBallarat)
Largedisadvantagedpopulation;largeSeniorpopulation,significantdisabledgroupforwhomtrains=bettermobility
Strongandundiminishingcommunitydemand(8500signaturesonpetition)
OpportunitytobuildonMurrayBasinandBallaratlineinvestments
BenefitstoMaryborough,StArnaud,Donald,Ouyen,Birchip,Wentworth(16communities)etc.
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InterCity:RailFuturesVisionforRegionalRailDevelopmentinVictoriato2050
InSeptember2016,TimFischerlaunchedRailFuturesInterCityreport,ablueprintforregionalpassengerrailandpopulationredistributionfromMelbournetotheregions
Everymajorregionalnewspapercarriedthestory– some,liketheGeelongAdvertiser,literally“heldthefrontpage”fortheInterCity story
Therewaswidesupportforthebroadapproach.PassengerrailadvocacyisstrongacrossregionalVictoria
Inseveralregions,Councilshavegroupedtogethertodevelopcommonpassengerrailadvocacyvoices
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4
MILDURAMILDURA
WhattheRegionalRailNetworkcouldlooklikein2040…
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MilduraRailwayCorridor
TheMilduralinereachedDonaldin1882,Woomelangin1899,andMildurainOctober1903.Thelineopenedon13November1903andwasextendedtoMerbeinon4July1910.
Mildurais571railkilometresfromMelbourneviaBallarat;Ballaratis119railkmfromMelbourneandtheraildistancefromBallarattoMildurais452km.(ViaGeelongthedistancefromMelbournetoMildurais608km).
Formanyyears,Mildurawasservedbyanovernighttrainwithsleepingcars;from1957to1967,adaytrainknownasthe“MilduraSunlight”operated;thiswasreplacedin1967byovernightservices,upgradedas“TheVinelander”inAugust1972.TheservicewaswithdrawninSeptember1993.“TheVinelander”didthedistancein10¾hours,atanaveragespeedof53kmh.(“Sunlight”wasslightlyfasterat10hours).
ThecurrentSundayeveningcoachtoMelbournetakesthesametimefortheovernighttripastheVinelanderdidin1985,althoughtherearesomefasterservices
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TownsandcatchmentsservedbytheMilduraRailwayCorridorRecentDHHSSocialprofilestatistics,publishedin2015,showthatthepopulationservedbytheMilduraline(Maryboroughonwards)is:
7664760,000inMildura/Wentworthandgrowing
ThisiscomparablewithothercorridorsservedbyV/Linetrains
ItistheonlycorridorinVictoriawithabove70,000peoplenotprovidedwitchapassengertrain
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Milduralineserves75,000people– similartoothercorridorswithV/Lineservices
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000COLACTOWARRNAMBOOL
BEAUFORTTOKANIVA
MARYBOROUGHTOMERBEIN
ARARATTOPORTLAND
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16TownsthatwouldbenefitfromareintroducedMildurapassengertrainBirchip
Carisbrook
Donald
Dunolly
Maryborough
Merbein
Mildura
Murrayville
NichollsPoint
Ouyen
RedCliffs
SeaLake
StArnaud
Underbool
Wentworth
Woomelang
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GroupsinthecorridorwhospeciallyneedatrainAllthosewhocannot,orchoosenottodrive,ornottodrivelongdistancesAllthosewhocannotaffordairtransportThisincludes-◦ ManySeniors inanagingpopulation◦ Manyyoungpeopleincludingstudents,apprentices,trainees◦ Disabledpeople,includingthosewithlowvision◦ Thosewhohaveneverheld,orlosttheirlicences◦ Manyseasonalworkersunder457visassuchasfruitpickers◦ Indigenouscommunitymembers◦ Tourists andvisitorsnoteligibletodriveinAustralia◦ Recentlyarrivedimmigrants
Inadiversecommunity,thesegroupsshouldhaveaccesstoeffectivepublictransportthatisreliable,fast,affordableandprovidesgoodconnectivity
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Forexample,seniors:UserfriendlypublictransportisspeciallyimportanttoseniorsintheMallee,wheremuchtravelislongdistance
Seniorsoftenhavemedicalrequirementstovisitcitybasedspecialists,andthiscanbedifficultorexpensivewithoutsuitablepublictransport.
Theyoftenhavefamilymembersindistantlocations
Eventoiletequippedcoachesarecrampedandinvolvestepsandconfinedtoiletareascomparedtoatrain
IntownsservedbytheMilduraline,21%ofthepopulationisagedover65
In8townsservedbytheline,over25%isover65
Inonetown7%ofthepopulationisagedover75andlivingalone,makingithardertorelyonothersfortransporttomedical,shoppingorfamilyactivitiesvitaltomentalhealth.
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AgingofthePopulation
AAgeingofthePopulationInmanytowns,20-30%ofthepopulationisagedover65TheproportionofseniorsisincreasingAlthoughmosthave(orhavehad)cars,theyareoftenreluctanttodrivelongdistancesoratnightBetterpublictransportcansupportessentialvisitstomedicalspecialists,shoppingandsocialvisitsthatpreventisolationetcAGEINGINPLACEREQUIRESEFFECTIVEPUBLICTRANSPORT
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SupportingSmallTownsSmallertownsdependoneffectivepublictransportservicesforaccesstomedicalservices,education,trainingandemploymentopportunities,andevenaccesstofreshfruitandvegetables.Goodcoachservicessupportingfastmainlinetrainshelpsmalltownstosurvive,andconnecttheirinhabitantstoregionalcentresandneededservices.
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Costs
NWRAlastyearreleasedaCostBenefitAnalysisofreturningMildura'spassengertrain.ItestimatedtotalCosts at$176million,ofwhichthelargestsingleitemistheupgradingtoactiveprotectionof145levelcrossings.Asrailsafetyisnowtightlyregulated,thesecostsareunavoidable,andofcoursetheyareaninvestmentinfuturesafetyforthecommunity,providingaddedprotectionalsowithrespecttofreightrailtrafficontheline
Costestimatessuchastheseareofcoursespeculative,pendingadetaileduptodateprofessionalstudy.Afinalcostestimateislikelytobeconsiderablyhigherthanthis.
The2010studyestimatedcostsof$505to$1.264billionandthesefigureshaveover-shadowedsomeofthediscussionofMilduralinepassengerservicereinstatemente.g.byInfrastructureVictoria.Theseoutdatedfiguresastocost(andastotraveltime)needtobereplacedbytechnicallycompetentfiguresreflectingacompletedMurrayBasinrailprojectandcompletedBallaratlineimprovements.
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Advocacyandaccordacrosslocalgovernments/councils/regionalpartnerships
PassengerRailadvocacyiscurrentlyextensiveinVictoriawithatleast9regionalgroupingatwork
Inmostcases,groupsofCouncilshavecometogether◦ Topresentunitedpositionstogovernment◦ Tojointlycommissionandbearthecostofnecessarystudies◦ Toconsultcommunitiesandensureownershipofproposals
InthecaseoftheMilduralineitwouldbehighlydesirableforallCouncilsalongthelineandnearittospeakwithonevoice(Mildura,Buloke,NorthernGrampians,CentralGoldfieldsandideallySwanHillandWentworth)
RegionalPartnershipsisalsoanimportantforumwheresupportexistsandcanbedeveloped.
Sustainedlocalmediasupportappearscritical,aswellascontinuousconsultationandinvolvementoflocalcommunitiesandcommunitygroups(e.g.WesternRailexample)
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NewRegionalRailAdvocacyGroups4GippslandCouncilssponsoredtheGippslandRailNeedsStudy(BawBaw,Latrobe,WellingtonandEastGippsland)
8westerncouncilssponsoredtheBarwonSouthWesternPassengerServicesStudy(Ararat,Horsham,NorthernGrampians,SouthernGrampians,Glenelg,Hindmarsh,YarriambiackandWestWimmera)
6CouncilsaresponsoringtheBallaratRailActionGroup(Brimbank,Melton,Moorabool,Ballarat,Pyrenees,Ararat)
4CouncilsaresponsoringtheBorderRailActionGroup(Albury,Wodonga,WangarattaandBenalla)
5CouncilsaresupportingRailingAhead(Bendigo,Campaspe,Gannawarra,LoddonandSwanHill)
ThereisalsoconcertedactioninShepparton
TheRailRevivalAlliance(Geelong-Maryborough-Bendigo)isveryactive
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AttractingStateandFederalsupport
StateandFederalco-operationwasthebasisofthe$440millionmadeavailablefortheMurrayBasinRailproject
AsimilarpartnershipwouldbehighlydesirabletosupportaMilduraPassengerTrainproject,buildingontheMBRP
TheCommonwealthGovernmentisapotentialfundingpartner:◦ Itprovidedmostofthefundsforthe$4billionRegionalRailprojectinMelbourne’swest◦ Itwasaco-contributortothe$1.6billionregionalrailpackageinthe2016budget◦ Ithascommitted$30milliontotheMelbourneAirportrailfeasibilitystudy
IntheStatesphere,thisprojectwillhavetocompetewithbidsandproposalsfrommanypartsoftheState
MBRPco-operationprovidesavaluablefoundation
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LeadTime
UntiladetailedprofessionalstudyisundertakenandaGovernmentcommitmentismade,itisimpossibletobepreciseastotheleadtimerequired,orthespeed,frequencyandrouteoftheservice.
AnimportantrequirementwillbethattheimpendingNewGenerationRegionalTrainhasaStandardGaugevariant.ThiswillalsobeneededforAlburyservicesaswellasMilduraandastandardgaugeservicingandstablingfacilitywillbeneededasthenorthweststandardizationproceeds
Anearlypackageofworkscouldinvolveupgradingcrossingprotectionatthe145levelcrossingsnorthofMaryborough
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Acrediblefeasibilitystudy◦ Jointlysponsoredby◦ -Councils◦ Statebodies(RDV,TfV)etc◦ ThesebodiesrepresentedonaSteeringCommitteeandtobetheClient
◦ Undertakenbycredible,independentexperts◦ Highlevelofrailoperationalexpertiserequired◦ Abletoanalysesocial,health,economicissues◦ Lookatwholepassengerservice– railandcoachintegration◦ Approachthatrespects/visitsallmajorcommunities◦ Timescale– about12monthsfrominception
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APlausibleModelfromtheStudyTheStudyneedstodemonstratethatareinstatedMildurapassengertrain:-
*meetssignificantsocialandeconomicneeds
*isaffordable(costsconsistentwithexperienceelsewhereinVictoria)
*candeliverreasonablejourneytime(lessthan7hoursMelb-Mildura)
*canserveallcommunitiesinthecatchmentthroughgoodcoachconnections
*canbeprovidedwithrollingstockthatisfitforpurpose
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ClosingObservationsThereisgrowingsupportforthereturnoftheMilduraPassengerTrain.Itisaworthwhileobjectivethatcanbeachieved,but-◦ Communitiesandcouncilsmustbeunitedintheiradvocacy◦ Theobjectiveshouldbeatrainthatisfastandfitforpurpose– journeymustbesignificantlybetterthancurrentalternatives(<7hoursjourneytime)
◦ Thecostissubstantial– butcomparableinscalewithothermajorregionalroadandrailprojects◦ Thesocialandeconomicbenefitsarewide-ranging◦ Adetailedprofessionalstudyisneeded,preferablywithgovernmentinsidethetent
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QuestionsandDiscussion
ThetrainbelowismanufacturedbyAlstom,whohaveafactoryatBallarat,andcurrentlysupplytheVictorianGovernmentasdoBombardier,whohaveafactoryatDandenong.ARequestforTendersforthe“NewGenerationRegionalTrain”isexpectedtobeannouncedshortly.