Migration and Youth Migration from Aroostook County:

Trends, Factors, and Implications

Final Report

Prepared for Northern Maine Development Commission

By University of Southern Maine

Center for Business and Economic Research

Charles S. Colgan, Ph.D. Principal Investigator

Bruce H. Andrews, Ph.D.

Project Director

October 2004

Table of Contents

Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... i

List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... ii

List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... v

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... vi

Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. x

1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1

2. Youth Migration to and from Maine: 1995-2000 ................................................................ 4 2.1 Introduction...............................................................................................................................4 2.2 Census Data on Migration....................................................................................................... 4 2.3 The Youth Who Left and Came to Maine ............................................................................ 6 2.4 Trends in Youth Migration: Northern and Southern Maine ............................................15 2.5 The Youth Who Moved within Maine ................................................................................19 2.6 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................20

3. Out-migration from Aroostook County between 1995 and 2002....................................... 22

4. High School Students and Migration ................................................................................ 26 4.1 High School Students’ Views of Living In or Out of Aroostook County .....................26 4.2 Locational Preferences: Working After High School ........................................................36 4.3 Locational Preferences: Going on to Post-Secondary Education ...................................38 4.4 Influence of Occupational Plans on Location Choices.....................................................41 4.5 Possible Responses to Youth Out-migration .....................................................................45

5. College Students and Migration ........................................................................................ 49 5.1 The Survey and Respondent Details ....................................................................................49 5.2 Plans for After College...........................................................................................................52 5.3 Location Preferences versus Expectations..........................................................................55 5.4 Perceptions of Living in Aroostook County.......................................................................63 5.5 Colleges as an Attraction to Living in Aroostook County................................................64 5.6 Returning to Aroostook County...........................................................................................67

6. Conclusions and Implications for Economic Development.............................................. 71

Appendix A: Information on the Survey of High School Students ....................................... 74

Appendix B: Information on the Survey of College Students ............................................... 82

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List of Tables

Table 1 Aroostook Youth Population in 1970 and 2000 ................................................................. 1 Table 2 Residence in 1995 for Maine Residents in 2000.................................................................. 6 Table 3 Age Profile of Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Residents ................................................. 6 Table 4 Gender Distribution of Out-migrants by Age..................................................................... 7 Table 5 Estimated Number of Young In-migrants and Out-migrants 1995-2000....................... 8Table 6 Regions of Origin and Destination for Young Migrants Aged 20-34 in 2000 ............... 8Table 7 States of Origin and Destination for Young Migrants Aged 20-34 in 2000 ................... 9Table 8 Educational Level of Maine Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Residents Aged

20-34 .......................................................................................................................................... 9 Table 9 Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 20-24 and 25-34 by Age and

Migration Status...................................................................................................................... 10 Table 10 Average Annual Wage and Salary Earnings of Young Out-migrants,

In-migrants, and Maine Residents by Educational Level................................................. 11 Table 11 Distributions (by Age) of Average Annual Wage and Salary Earnings for

Young Adults Living in Maine Compared to Young Adults Moving to Maine between 1995 and 2000......................................................................................................... 11

Table 12 Industry of Employment for Youth Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Maine Residents Aged 20-34 ............................................................................................................ 12

Table 13 Industry Specialization of Out-migrants and In-migrants in Relation to Maine Residents ..................................................................................................................... 13

Table 14 Occupation Types of Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Maine Residents Ages 20-34 ........................................................................................................................................ 13

Table 15 Occupational Specializations of Out-migrants and In-migrants in Relation to Maine Residents ..................................................................................................................... 14

Table 16 Employment Status of Young Adults Ages 20-34 in 2000............................................ 15 Table 17 Maine Region of Residence in 1995 by Age of Young Out-migrants ......................... 15 Table 18 Educational Attainment of Young Out-migrants by Region of Origin in

Maine........................................................................................................................................ 16 Table 19 Location of Birth for Young In-migrants to Maine ....................................................... 16 Table 20 Maine Region of Residence for Young In-migrants....................................................... 17 Table 21 Marital Status of Young Adults by Migration Status ...................................................... 17 Table 22 Household Characteristics by Migration Status .............................................................. 18 Table 23 Housing Arrangements of Individuals Aged 20-34 by Migration Status..................... 18Table 24 Residence in 1995 for Young Adults in Maine................................................................ 19 Table 25 Young Adults Who Moved within the Same Region between 1995 and 2000 .......... 19Table 26 Origin and Destination Regions of Migrating Youth in Maine .................................... 20 Table 27 Destinations of Out-migrants from Aroostook County Based on IRS Tax

Returns..................................................................................................................................... 22 Table 28 Distributions of Aroostook Out-migrants’ Destinations .............................................. 23 Table 29 Maine County Destinations for Aroostook Out-migrants Based upon Tax

Exemptions Claimed ............................................................................................................. 24 Table 30 Destination Regions for Aroostook Out-migrants Based upon Tax

Exemptions Claimed ............................................................................................................. 25 Table 31 Average Reported Gross Income for Aroostook Out-migrants and Residents......... 25Table 32 Desired Location After High School Assuming No Barriers ....................................... 26

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Table 33 Plans After High School Assuming No Barriers............................................................. 27 Table 34 After High School Location Plans by Grade Assuming No Barriers .......................... 28 Table 35 After-High-School Location and Activity Plans by Grade Assuming No

Barriers..................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 36 After-High-School Location Plans by Gender Assuming No Barriers ....................... 30Table 37 After-High-School Location and Activity Plans by Gender Assuming No

Barriers..................................................................................................................................... 31 Table 38 Preferred Place in which to Live After All Education is Completed........................... 32 Table 39 Expectations about Returning to Aroostook .................................................................. 32 Table 40 Preferred Type of Region in which to Live ..................................................................... 32 Table 41 Preferred Place in which to Live After All Education is Completed........................... 33 Table 42 Expectations about Returning to Aroostook by Gender............................................... 33 Table 43 Preferred Type of Region in which to Live by Gender ................................................. 34 Table 44 Factors Affecting Decisions to Leave Aroostook After High School......................... 34 Table 45 Mean Ratings of Factors Affecting Decisions to Leave Aroostook After

High School by Gender ........................................................................................................ 35 Table 46 Average Length of Time Lived in Aroostook by Desired Location After

High School ............................................................................................................................ 35 Table 47 Desired Location After High School by Birthplace of Parents .................................... 36 Table 48 Reasons for Not Continuing Education Immediately After High School .................. 37Table 49 Reasons for Not Continuing Education Immediately After High School by

Gender ..................................................................................................................................... 37 Table 50 Expectations of Highest Degree to be Earned ............................................................... 38 Table 51 Expectations of Highest Degree to Be Earned by Gender ........................................... 39 Table 52 Location of Chosen Post-Secondary Educational Institution....................................... 39 Table 53 Reasons for Going to College Immediately After High School ................................... 40 Table 54 Reasons for Choosing College........................................................................................... 41 Table 55 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations............................................................. 41 Table 56 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations by Gender......................................... 42 Table 57 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations by Desired Location........................ 43Table 58 Sources of Influence on Location Decision .................................................................... 45 Table 59 Sources of Influence on Location Decision by Location Preference .......................... 46 Table 60 Effectiveness Ratings of Programs to Influence Youth Migration Decisions

in Aroostook........................................................................................................................... 47 Table 61 Distribution of College Survey Respondents by Institution and Gender ................... 49Table 62 Expected Graduation Date of College Survey Respondents ........................................ 50 Table 63 Programs of Study by Institution ...................................................................................... 50 Table 64 Programs of Study by Gender ........................................................................................... 51 Table 65 Field of Study of Labor Force Entrants ........................................................................... 52 Table 66 Intentions to Pursue Additional Degree by Institution ................................................. 53 Table 67 Location of Next College by Current Institution............................................................ 53 Table 68 Highest Degree Expected by Current Institution........................................................... 54 Table 69 Highest Degree Expected by Gender............................................................................... 54 Table 70 Location Expectation by Location Preference................................................................ 55 Table 71 Location Expectations by College..................................................................................... 56 Table 72 Location Preferences by Institution.................................................................................. 56 Table 73 College Major by Location Expectation........................................................................... 57 Table 74 College Major by Location Preference ............................................................................. 58 Table 75 Location Expectation by Occupation............................................................................... 59

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Table 76 Location Expectation by Occupation............................................................................... 60 Table 77 Years Lived in Aroostook County by Location Expectation........................................ 62 Table 78 Location Preference by Gender......................................................................................... 62 Table 79 Location Expectation by Gender ...................................................................................... 62 Table 80 Ratings of Factors Affecting Location Preferences: Likely to Live in

Aroostook ...............................................................................................................................63 Table 81 Ratings of Factors Affecting Location Preferences: Likely to Live Outside of

Aroostook ...............................................................................................................................64 Table 82 Ratings of Reasons for Attending Aroostook Institution by Current

Residence of Students ........................................................................................................... 65 Table 83 Assessment of Aroostook Characteristics for Transfer Students................................. 66 Table 84 Assessment of Aroostook Characteristics by Legal Residence..................................... 67 Table 85 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook County............................................................... 67 Table 86 Plans to Return to Aroostook by Legal Residence ......................................................... 68 Table 87 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook County by Gender........................................... 69 Table 88 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook by Transfer Location ...................................... 69 Table 89 Ratings of Possible Reasons to Return to Aroostook County...................................... 70 Table 90 Support for Loan Forgiveness Program by Percent of Financial Aid from

Loans........................................................................................................................................ 70

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List of Figures Figure 1 Aroostook County and Maine Out-migration Estimates Based upon Tax Return

Exemptions Claimed .............................................................................................................23

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Executive Summary

Aroostook County has faced a problem of out-migration among its youth for decades. Concern about youth leaving the County has grown steadily, particularly since the closing of Loring Air Force Base a decade ago. This study was commissioned by the Northern Maine Development Commission to examine in depth the reasons that youth tend to leave Aroostook County and to examine the possibilities for policies and programs that might help the County retain its youth or encourage those who leave to return.

The study examines the issue of youth out-migration by analyzing data on actual migration trends from the Census and from Internal Revenue Service data and also uses surveys of both high school and college students in Aroostook to explore their views on where they expect to live, what they find attractive or not about the County, and their views on possibly returning to Aroostook, if they do leave.

1. Major Findings

Analyses of the data from all of these sources have yielded major findings that fall into

four categories: 1. 1. Location Trends, Expectations, and Preferences • Aroostook youth are more likely to leave for other destinations in Maine than for out of

state destinations. Penobscot County appears to be the most popular destination for youth out-migrants.

• Aroostook youth migration patterns are probably not significantly different from the youth

migration trends found in other parts of northern, western, and eastern Maine. • The common perception that youth leave Aroostook County in search of better career and

income prospects is generally true, though there are other factors that determine location decisions. Among these are the types of careers people seek, the depths of their connections to the County, and to some extent their gender.

• Analysis of income data for Aroostook out-migrants (of all ages) suggests that those with

lower incomes tend to be the ones to leave and those with higher incomes tend to be the ones to stay.

• A higher proportion of college students expect to live in Aroostook County than high

school students; but this is because the high school population contains a large population that expects to leave for college. Thus, Aroostook colleges have already captured an important part of those who will stay.

• Both high school and college students in Aroostook report strong preferences to live in

rural areas or smaller urban areas rather than large urban areas. This is consistent with the finding that most youth migrants move to places like Bangor and Portland rather than larger urban centers like Boston.

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1. 2. Education and Careers • Aroostook high school students have high expectations for further education. Leaving

Aroostook County is most often in pursuit of these expectations and the careers associated with college educations.

• High proportions of both high school and college students indicate they expect to

continue their education after their current programs are completed. Women are more likely than men to seek additional education.

• Maine colleges are the predominant choice for those who will pursue additional education

for both high school and college students.

• Those pursuing education, health, and social services occupations are most likely to stay in Aroostook. These are also most likely to be occupations of women. Business related careers tend to be associated with staying in Aroostook County; this includes those who indicated they want to start a business.

• Those expecting to pursue careers in the arts, professions, and technology-related areas are

the most likely to leave Aroostook. 1.3. Attractions of Aroostook • Aroostook colleges offer a combination of good programs, affordability and size, which

makes them very attractive to those who attend them and to those high school students in Aroostook County considering attending them.

• The longer youth have lived in Aroostook County, the more likely they are to want to, and

to expect to, stay or return to the County. • The characteristics of Aroostook County associated with staying or leaving tend to be the

opposite of one another. Those who expect to stay rate the ability to be near family and friends and the affordable rural life style as key factors. It should be noted that high school students cite their parents as the most influential source of information about location decisions.

• Those who are likely to leave cite career and income concerns as the key attractions of

other locations and as the detriments to remaining in Aroostook. 1.4. Returning to Aroostook • About 70% of college students and 77% of high school students said they definitely will

return or would like to return to Aroostook if they leave. But only slightly more than 20% indicated that they definitely will return.

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• Aroostook County colleges attract a number of students from outside the region. These students are less likely to say they will return after their education, but are about as likely as Aroostook County students to say they would like to return at some point in the future.

• Among both high school and college students, jobs and career-related opportunities and

information are the most important considerations in decisions about whether to return to the County.

• Such programs as student loan forgiveness programs may have some attraction,

particularly for the 40% or so of college students who finance more than half of their education with loans. However, there is no clear evidence that such programs would have a large effect.

2. Implications

The implications of these findings for economic development and other policies affecting

youth can be summarized as follows:

• The principal factor affecting youth location choices in Aroostook County is the desire to seek additional education in order to improve career and income prospects. Where the appropriate education is available and where it offers good prospects in the County, youth will tend to stay. Where it does not, youth will tend to leave.

• It will be easiest to attract youth to stay for careers in health, social services, and education.

These are also the careers most attractive to women, who also report slightly higher preferences to leave Aroostook. It will be most difficult to retain youth who are interested in the professions, in scientific, artistic, and technological occupations. Economic development efforts to grow opportunities in these areas will be most successful in attracting and retaining youth.

• State programs such as the Creative Economy initiative, support for research and

development, the Maine Technology Institute, and tourism development are all operating in areas that will be key to the growth of jobs and opportunities that will retain youth in Aroostook County.

• Aroostook County has a number of attractive features for youth, including its institutions

of higher education, which are seen as having good programs, are affordable, and are appropriately sized for a number of students. These institutions are a considerable strength in attracting youth to Aroostook. The affordable rural life style, including recreational opportunities, is an important asset for the County, but these assets cannot overcome the perceived lack of career opportunities in certain fields.

• It will be possible to encourage some youth to return to Aroostook County. While a solid majority of high school and college students indicated they will return or wish to return if they leave, the proportion indicating that they definitely will return is not large. So, encouraging the return of youth should be a part of, but by no means all of, a strategy for dealing with youth out-migration. Strategies that improve the prospects of youth staying

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in Aroostook by virtue of improved careers will be also be the key to attracting young out-migrants to return.

• The attractiveness of small cities and rural areas for the majority of Aroostook youth focuses attention on the growth and development of places like Presque Isle, Houlton, Fort Kent, and Madawaska. The availability of urban amenities such as cultural events, night life, shopping, etc. will be part of the consideration of youth seeking attractive locations to live and work. Clearly, the development of attractive urban amenities in those locations in Aroostook County that can support them will be an important part of the package of efforts needed to retain youth.

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Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of the many partners who made this project possible:

1. Robert Clark, Executive Director, and Alain Ouellette, Director, Business Development, Northern Maine Development Commission for commissioning the study (using grant funds provided by the USDA Rural Development through the Aroostook County Empowerment Zone Program) and for their assistance in coordinating the high school student survey process.

2. The Northern Maine Empowerment Council for making this a priority project for both the

Aroostook County Empowerment Zone as well as the northern Maine region.

3. Richard Kelso, Principal, Economic Management Services for orchestrating all of the field work at the 17 high schools and the three post-secondary schools in Aroostook County.

4. Joyce Benson, Senior Planner, Maine State Planning Office for her assistance in analyzing the PUMS

data.

5. David Silvernail, Director, Center for Educational Policy, Applied Research, and Professional Education, University of Southern Maine for sharing his experiences from FAME-sponsored studies of Maine college student migration after graduation.

6. Steve DesRoberts, Svet Kirtchev, Kris Nikolov, Onur Oztuncer, Baris Sagiroglu, and Seetha Shetty,

Student Research Associates at the Center for Business and Economic Research for their assistance in designing the survey instruments, helping with the data management/analysis processes, and for their contributions in editing the interim and final reports.

7. The 17 senior administrators from high schools and school districts for their help in administering

surveys to almost 1500 high school juniors and seniors:

Roland Caron, Superintendent, Ashland High School Brenda Felch, Assistant Superintendent, Caribou School Department Sandra Smith, Guidance Director, Central Aroostook Junior-Senior High School Donna Lisnik, Principal, Easton School Department Jeannette Condon, Superintendent, Fort Fairfield High School Sandra Bernstein, Superintendent, Fort Kent High School Bernadett Willette, Guidance Director, Hodgdon High School Jon Turnet, Guidance Director, Houlton High School Sandy Robinson, Guidance Director, Katahdin High School Carol Castel, Guidance Director, Limestone High School Frances Chasse, Principal, Madawaska High School Catherine Bowker, Academic Dean, Maine School of Science and Math Gene Brown, Guidance Director, Presque Isle High School Clark Rafford, Principal, Southern Aroostook High School Joe Carlin, Guidance Director, Van Buren School Department Harry New, Guidance Director, Washburn High School Leeann Marin, Guidance Director, Wisdom High School

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8. The senior administrators from Aroostook’s three colleges for their help in administering surveys to

almost 400 college upperclassmen:

Tim Crowley, President, Northern Maine Community College Scott Rizene, Director of Student Services, University of Maine Fort Kent William Shields, President, University of Maine Presque Isle

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1. Introduction Aroostook County is no stranger to the loss of population. From a peak of over 106,000 people in 1960, Aroostook County’s population has declined by more than 30,000 people or almost a third. This is the largest population drop of any county in New England over this period. As seen in Table 1, even more dramatic has been the drop in young people. The population under 30 has declined by more than half since 1970, with a loss of more than 28,000. The closure of Loring Air Force Base in 1994 certainly contributed to this dramatic loss of young people, but the loss is far in excess of what could be accounted for by that event alone.

Table 1 Aroostook Youth Population in 1970 and 2000

Change Population 1970 2000 Number Percent

Under 30 years of age 54,419 26,226 -28,193 -51.8% Under 20 years of age 40,520 18,735 -21,785 -53.8% Ages 20-29 13,899 7,491 -6,408 -46.1%

Aroostook’s loss of overall population, especially young people, is not unique in Maine

or in other rural areas of the United States. The loss of young people is becoming such a problem in Maine and elsewhere that many areas are increasingly identifying the issue as one requiring high-level policy attention. In June 2004, Governor John Baldacci convened a statewide conference to explore the problem and to develop specific strategies to deal with it. Aroostook County’s loss of young people presents special challenges. The size of the problem is larger in Aroostook than other areas of Maine, and the County’s physical size and distance from urban centers make the issue particularly challenging. The loss of young people presents challenges to maintaining an adequate work force needed to support economic development, particularly as the population ages and the worker/retiree ratio shrinks over the next two decades. Because so much attention has been paid to youth out-migration for so long, many stories have grown around the problem. Some of the stories despair of changing the trend. “There aren’t enough jobs”. “Youth do not like living in rural areas, but want to live in cities where there is more to do.” “Young people just need to get away from home.” Like all such stories, there are elements of truth in these, but they are still incomplete and limited. What is certainly true of some young people is not necessarily true of all young people or even of most young people. For Aroostook County to develop effective ways to address the problem of youth out-migration, a more complete picture of its actual migration trends is needed. That is the purpose of this report.

Unfortunately, detailed information on the characteristics of migrants, such as age,

income, education, etc. is very sparse. Standard demographic data such as the Census provide much more detailed information about where people are than where they were or will be. To

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examine the characteristics of migrants from Aroostook County, this study uses three different sources of information:

1. The Census Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) - This data set is part of each

decennial census and consists of the responses to the “long form” questionnaire. One of the questions on that form asks for the respondent’s place of residence in 1995. This provides a partial picture of migrant characteristics by examining the responses of those who lived in a different place in 1995.

The PUMS data have the advantages of providing a great deal of detail with respect to characteristics such as income, education, occupation, family status, but they have several disadvantages. In order to protect confidentiality of responses, the Census Bureau does not report the results from the long form for any geographic region smaller than 400,000 people. For Maine, this means that the Census reports only in two multi-county regions. Thus, detailed data on out-migrants at the Aroostook County level are not available. In addition, the PUMS data are somewhat limited in that they identify only one migration event based on place of residence in 1995 and 2000. Nevertheless, they provide a broad overview of migration trends in Maine needed to set the stage for more detailed analysis of Aroostook County.

2. County-to-County Migration Data from the Internal Revenue Service - The IRS publishes data on migration based on the county in which returns are filed annually. Residents of Aroostook County who file their income taxes from another county in a subsequent year are measured as “out-migrants”. Since the IRS data are at the county level, they provide more geographic detail than the PUMS data. The IRS data are based on tax returns, rather than individuals, and are reported only as county aggregates. However, the number of exemptions is reported, so that household size can be approximated. Total and median incomes of returns are also reported, but age is not collected by the IRS1.

3. Surveys of High School and College Students in Aroostook County - Since the

available public data are poorly suited for examining the problems surrounding youth migration, this study employs two additional sources of data that focus specifically on young people. One is a survey of juniors and seniors in Aroostook County high schools. The second is a survey of students at the University of Maine at Presque Isle (UMPI), University of Maine at Fort Kent (UMFK), and Northern Maine Community College (NMCC).

This report analyzes information from each of these sources in detail. In Section 2, the

statewide trends in-migration are examined using the PUMS data, which includes an analysis of the detailed characteristics of youth migrants to and from Maine and the two regions within Maine for which these data are available. This analysis includes both those who migrated outside of Maine and within Maine over the 1995-2000 period, and it examines trends in both youth out-migrants and in-migrants. The analysis of the PUMS data was conducted both for this study and for use at the Governor’s Conference on Youth. This section of the report was prepared with the assistance of Joyce Benson from the Maine State Planning Office.

1 Exemptions are reported, but the type of exemption is not. Thus, the “Over 65” personal exemption is not reported.

2

In Section 3, the IRS data are used to develop a picture of the out-migration trends for Aroostook County from 1995 to 2002. Although data are not available on young people specifically, the IRS data provide an Aroostook-specific sample of out-migrants from which to draw implications about the patterns of those who leave the County.

In Section 4, data collected from the high school survey are examined. This survey

was conducted during May 2004 in all high schools in Aroostook County. The surveys were distributed in person to all juniors and seniors in each high school, including all of the Aroostook County residents attending the Maine School of Mathematics and Science at Limestone. The survey specifically addressed the plans of high school students for living in Aroostook County or elsewhere, their plans for education or work, and the factors that affect their decisions about where to live and work, as well as the factors that might influence their decisions.

Section 5 examines data collected from the survey of upperclassmen attending the

three colleges in Aroostook. This survey was administered with the cooperation of the two campuses of the University of Maine System at Fort Kent and Presque Isle and the Northern Maine Community College in the fall of 2004.

Finally, the conclusions and recommendations for retaining youth in Aroostook

County and for economic development are explored in Section 6.

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2. Youth Migration to and from Maine: 1995-2000 This section explores the characteristics of young people aged 20-34 who moved from

Maine, to Maine, and within Maine over the period 1995-2000 using data from the 2000 Census to provide a detailed picture of their age, employment, income, locational, and educational characteristics.

2.1 Introduction

The 2000 Census data show that Maine has clearly had a youth out-migration problem, particularly in the age groups most closely associated with going to college. Young people who left Maine were more likely to have higher education and higher incomes than those who stayed, although the differences were generally not as large as might be expected. Out-migrants were also more likely to be those looking for work in certain fields such as professional and technical fields. Out-migrants were most likely to go to states in New England and the Southeastern regions, and were more likely to originate in southern than northern Maine.

At the same time, Maine did attract a substantial number of young people from outside the state. While there were about 6,000 more out-migrants from Maine than in-migrants to Maine among the 20-34 age group, the net out-migration is accounted for almost entirely by those between ages 20 and 24. In the rest of the 20-34 age group, in-migrants outnumbered out-migrants. In-migrants are also more likely to come here from other New England states. There were more young people who moved to Maine from the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and the Intermountain West regions than moved from Maine to these areas. In-migrants were more likely to go to southern Maine than northern Maine.

There was also movement by young people within Maine. In fact, young people, like

people everywhere, are more likely to move locally than to move a significant distance; about two-thirds of Maine residents in 2000 who had moved since 1995 moved within the same region. For those who did move outside their region, the urban areas of Portland and Bangor were the most popular destinations, while the rural areas of eastern, northern, and western Maine saw the largest net out-migration.

2.2 Census Data on Migration

The U.S. Census Bureau collects detailed social, economic, and housing statistics on

the nation’s population every ten years. All households and individuals are counted, and data are collected on the age, sex, race, etc. of the total population. In addition, approximately 5% of the households in the nation fill out the “long form” questionnaire. Along with the demographic, social, and economic data, information on population movement and migration is collected in some depth. These data, the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), are available for public use in two versions. One pertains to 5% of the respondents and can be used to analyze movement within Maine, and the other relates to 1% of the respondents and contains the data on migration between states.

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The long form Census questionnaire asks the respondent to indicate where they lived

in 1995. Migration is inferred based on the answer to this question and on subsequent questions about the location of their 1995 residence, if it was not the same as in 2000. The data presented in this profile of young adults aged 20-34 are derived from the PUMS for Maine and all other states.

The Maine population was sorted into two categories: (1) those that lived in Maine

since 1995, (2) those who had moved to Maine sometime between 1995 and April 1, 2000 when the census was taken. The PUMS 1% sample data for all of the other 49 states were searched to extract the records of those who had lived in Maine in 1995. This search yielded 1024 records, of which 312 were from respondents between 20 and 34 years of age in 2000. Comparisons were then made based on place of birth, educational, economic (occupational and income), and household characteristics. In addition, for the group that was living in Maine in 1995, their movement within the state was also measured. Because the PUMS data characterize a sample of the population, a process known as weighting is used to estimate the size of the total population having a given characteristic. These weights are statistically estimated for each state’s population based on certain characteristics. These weights are assigned within each state, and can be used for analysis of migration within Maine. However, because the place of residence in 1995 is not one of the characteristics used to assign weights, the Maine records in other states’ PUMS files cannot be used to represent the total population of Maine out-migrants. Thus, actual numbers of out-migrants are generally not presented in this report except in the case of the age distribution of out-migrants. For analysis of migration trends within Maine, PUMS data divide the state into ten regions called PUMAs (Public Use Microdata Areas). These regions are established, based on population size, by first dividing them into metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. In Maine, only the Portland MSA is large enough to be tabulated separately, and it is further separated between the urban core (Portland, South Portland and Westbrook) and the suburban communities. The balance of the state is divided into regions of at least 100,000 population. Though an attempt is made to follow county lines, only Androscoggin and Kennebec Counties are PUMA regions, and the balance of Maine is grouped into multi-county groups.2 In this analysis, the “young adult” or “youth” population is defined as individuals between the ages of 20 and 34, the age group chosen for analysis by the Governor’s Conference on Youth.

2 For more information on PUMS data, see http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2003/PUMS5.html and http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2003/PUMS.html

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2.3 The Youth Who Left and Came to Maine Young adults are twice as likely to move as those who are at least 35 years old. As seen in Table 2, between 1995 and 2000, 40%3 of all individuals in Maine moved, mostly within Maine. Of those between the ages of 20 and 34, 70% moved during the same 5-year period, which indicates that youth are almost twice as likely to move as the population as a whole.

Table 2 Residence in 1995 for Maine Residents in 2000 All Persons Age 5+ Young Adults Ages 20-34

Migration Activity Number Percent Number Percent Same house 723,391 60.0% 68,007 30.6% Moved within Maine 360,451 29.9% 114,405 51.5% Moved to Maine 121,702 10.1% 39,909 18.0% Total 1,205,544 100.0% 222,321 100.0%

Table 3 provides an age profile of those who left Maine from 1995 to 2000; those who

came to Maine over the same period; and those who resided in Maine in 2000.

Table 3 Age Profile of Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Residents

Age in 1995 Age in 2000

Ages Out-migrants In-migrants Out-migrant In-migrant Maine

Residents Under 18 32.3% 29.8% 15.7% 20.2% 23.8%

18-19 6.3% 3.8% 4.7% 3.7% 2.6% 20-24 10.5% 10.8% 18.3% 9.8% 5.1% 25-29 12.3% 10.2% 10.5% 10.8% 5.2% 30-34 7.7% 10.0% 12.3% 10.2% 6.4% 35-39 7.5% 8.2% 7.7% 10.0% 8.1% 40-49 11.1% 12.3% 13.2% 15.1% 17.2% 50-64 8.2% 9.1% 10.6% 12.3% 17.7%

Over 65 4.1% 5.9% 7.0% 8.0% 14.0% Average 28.2% 29.7% 33.2% 34.7% 38.6%

As shown in Table 3, the average age of out-migrants in 2000 was 33.2, while the

average age of in-migrants to Maine was 34.7. The average age of Maine residents was 38.6, indicating that both in-migrants and out-migrants tended to be younger than the population of Maine. Since the migration to or from Maine took place at some point between 1995 and 2000, the actual age of migration was not the same as it was in 2000, although it cannot be pinpointed exactly since the Census does not ask in what year a change of residence took place.4 Based on their computed age in 1995 (age in 2000 minus 5), the average age of all out-migrant respondents in 1995 was 28.2 and of in-migrant respondents was 29.7. As Table 3 shows, the young average age is driven by a larger proportion of those out-migrants between 20 and 34. Half of adults (over 18) who left Maine were between 20 and 34 and nearly 40% of those adults who came to Maine were in this age group.

3 5 years of age or over 4 It is possible that multiple changes of residence took place between 1995 and 2000, but this is not measured in the Census data.

6

The largest group among out-migrants was those between 20 and 24, which is consistent with other data showing Maine’s significant out-migration of college age students. Based on their age in 2000, the proportion of out-migrants in this age group was twice the proportion of in-migrants.

Table 4 shows the breakdown of migrants by gender. Overall, the numbers of men and women who left Maine and were between 20 and 34 years old in 2000 was about equal, with 211 men and 209 women. Among this age group, men and women were about equal in the age 20-24 group, with men outnumbering women slightly. Slightly more men than women left in the 25-29 age group and the reverse was true in the 30-34 age group.

Table 4 Gender Distribution of Out-migrants by Age

Ages Men Women Under 18 51.3% 48.8%

18-19 35.4% 64.6% 20-24 49.2% 50.8% 25-29 56.1% 43.9% 30-34 46.8% 53.2% 35-39 44.3% 55.7% 40-49 48.1% 51.9% 50-64 50.0% 50.0%

Over 65 50.7% 49.3%

While the focus of this study is on youth out-migration, it is important to complete the picture by also looking at youth in-migration. The in-migrant population differs from the out-migrant population in several ways. There are more in-migrants under 18 and over 40. Among the 18-34 age group, there are more out-migrants between 18-24, as expected, and somewhat more in the 30-34 category. The proportion of in-migrants to out-migrants in the age group between 25 and 29 is about equal based on their age in 2000, but based on their age in 1995, there were more out-migrants than in-migrants.

Table 5 shows estimates of the number of out-migrants and in-migrants based on the Census profiles. These are only estimates because a sample was used to generate them.5 Over 1995-2000, in-migrants outnumbered out-migrants by an estimated 14,983. Of those between 20 and 34, out-migrants exceeded in-migrants by 6,444. The majority of this difference was in those aged 20-24 (in 2000). Of those between 25 and 34, there was positive in-migration of 1,216.

5 Out-migrants were estimated by multiplying the proportions in Table 3 times an estimate of 106,000 migrants, which is based on a 1% sample. In-migrants were estimated using the weighting assigned to individual respondents in the Maine PUMS file.

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Table 5 Estimated Number of Young In-migrants and Out-migrants 1995-20006

Ages Out-migrants In-migrants Net Under 18 16,723 24,559 7,837

18-19 5,016 4,454 -561 20-24 19,551 11,890 -7,661 25-29 11,184 13,119 1,935 30-34 13,169 12,450 -719 35-39 8,260 12,134 3,874 40-49 14,108 18,414 4,305 50-64 11,291 14,908 3,618

Over 65 7,417 9,773 2,356 Total 106,719 121,702 14,983 20-34 25-34

43,904 24,353

37,460 25,569

-6,444 1,216

Table 6 shows the regions of origin and destination for migrants to and from Maine

who were between 20 and 34 in 2000. As might be expected, most went to eastern states, with New England accounting for nearly half of the out-migrants, the southeastern states had the next most, followed by the Mid-Atlantic. Over 72% of Maine out-migrants went to these regions. Seventy percent of in-migrants also came from these same regions. More young people went to other New England states than came from those states. This is also true of the southeastern states. More young people come from the Mid-Atlantic States, the Midwest, and the Intermountain West. There is an approximate balance of in and out-migrants from the other regions.

Table 6 Regions of Origin and Destination for Young Migrants Aged 20-34 in 2000

Region From Maine to Region

From Region to Maine Net

New England 42.7% 36.3% Out Mid-Atlantic 12.9% 15.9% In Southeast 17.2% 16.8% Out Midwest 6.9% 7.9% In Mid-South 5.8% 5.9% Even Plains 1.1% 1.5% Even Intermountain West 4.3% 6.6% In Pacific 9.2% 9.0% Even

More detail on destinations and origins of young migrants is provided in Table 7,

which shows the distribution of PUMS respondents by state, along with the region to which each state is assigned. Massachusetts and New Hampshire are the first- and the second- ranked destination for out-migrants; together, they account for a third of youth out-migrants. Maine is a net exporter of young people to these two states and Rhode Island, but a net importer of young people from Connecticut and Vermont. Outside of New England, Florida, California, and New York each account for over 6% of out-migrants.

6 Data in this table include only to state-to state migration. There were also about 2500 people who moved to Maine from outside the U.S. during 1995-2000.

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Table 7 States of Origin and Destination for Young Migrants Aged 20-34 in 2000

Region State From Maine to State

From State to Maine Region State From Maine

to State From State to

Maine CT 3.2% 5.7% AR 0.2% 0.1% MA 21.2% 15.9% KY 1.7% 0.7% NH 11.8% 9.7% LA 0.2% 0.3% RI 3.4% 1.8% MO 0.4% 0.6%

New England

VT 3.0% 3.3% TN 0.6% 1.3% DC 0.4% 0.1%

Mid-South

TX 2.6% 2.9% DE 0.2% 0.3% Plains IO 0.4% 0.6% MD 2.1% 1.3% KS 0.2% 0.4% NJ 1.1% 3.5% ND 0.0% 0.2% NY 6.9% 6.4% OK 0.4% 0.2% PA 2.1% 3.7% SD 0.0% 0.1%

Mid-Atlantic

WV 0.0% 0.5% AZ 1.7% 1.5% AL 0.2% 0.4% CO 1.7% 2.3% FL 6.2% 5.9% ID 0.0% 0.3% GA 2.1% 1.7% MT 0.0% 0.2% MS 0.2% 0.4% NM 0.0% 0.6% NC 3.4% 2.8% NV 0.4% 0.3% SC 1.1% 1.1% UT 0.4% 0.9%

Southeast

VA 3.9% 4.4%

Intermountain West

WY 0.0% 0.5% IL 0.9% 2.2% AK 0.9% 0.5% IN 1.1% 1.1% CA 6.4% 5.7% MI 1.3% 1.9% HI 0.9% 0.9% MN 0.0% 0.7% OR 0.9% 0.7% OH 1.3% 1.5%

Pacific

WA 0.2% 1.2%

Midwest

WI 2.4% 0.5% Table 8 shows the highest educational attainment level for young out-migrants, in-migrants, and those of the same age residing in Maine in 2000. Both out-migrants and in-migrants are somewhat better educated than the comparable young adults residing in Maine.

Table 8 Educational Level of Maine Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Residents Aged 20-34 Educational Attainment

Level Out-migrants In-migrants Maine Residents in 2000

No school 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Less than high school 6.0% 9.4% 9.9% High school 22.7% 34.3% 38.3% Some college 34.4% 27.8% 26.6% Associates 6.0% 8.5% 8.6% Bachelors 24.8% 16.4% 13.6% Graduate 6.2% 3.5% 2.8%

Out-migrants appear to be significantly more likely to be college educated at the bachelors or graduate levels, and the proportion of in-migrants does not appear to offset the loss of these college-educated people. Out-migrants are also the most likely to have had some

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college education. In-migrants are more closely representative of the Maine’s young adult population in the proportion of people with high school, some college, or an associate’s degree.

As seen in Table 9, educational differences become clearer when the 20-34 age cohort is divided into those under age 25 and those over 25. Among individuals under 25, almost two thirds (65.5%) of those migrating to Maine between 1995 and 2000 were either attending college or had education beyond a high school diploma. Among older in-migrants (ages 25-34), 71.5% had education beyond high school. But, of those that were already living in Maine, there was no real difference in educational attainment between younger (under 25) and older (ages 25-34) individuals. More of the older population had advanced degrees, as would be expected, since many under age 25 had not had time to complete advanced educational programs. The portion of older (ages 25-34) adults with some college or an associate’s degree is roughly comparable between individuals moving to Maine and those who had been here since 1995. However, the gap widens with higher levels of educational attainment. Almost 27% of those moving to Maine were college graduates, compared to only 16% of those who had not moved in the last 5 years. Almost 10% had a master’s degree, compared to less than 2% of those who had not moved. Almost 5% had a professional degree or Ph.D., compared to less than 1% of the population who had not moved.

Table 9 Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 20-24 and 25-34 by Age and Migration Status Persons Percent of Total

Ages

Educational

Attainment Level

In Maine in 1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000

In Maine in 1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000 <11th grade 2,736 506 4.8% 3.8% 11-12/no diploma 3,849 487 6.7% 3.6% HS graduate 21,666 3,646 37.7% 27.1% Some col./no degree 21,511 6,249 37.4% 46.5% Associate’s degree 3,125 642 5.4% 4.8% BA/BS degree 4,399 1,791 7.6% 13.3% MA/MS degree 169 112 0.3% 0.8% Professional deg. 52 0 0.1% 0.0%

20-24

PhD 15 0 0.0% 0.0% Total 57,522 13,433 100.0% 100.0%

<11th grade 5,451 683 4.4% 2.6% 11-12/no diploma 6,598 963 5.3% 3.6% HS graduate 49,033 5,898 39.3% 22.3% Some col./no degree 27,000 6,118 21.6% 23.1% Associate’s degree 13,614 1,912 10.9% 7.2% BA/BS degree 20,106 7,135 16.1% 26.9% MA/MS degree 2,058 2,477 1.6% 9.4% Professional degree 915 1,040 0.7% 3.9%

25-34

PhD 115 250 0.1% 0.9% Total 124,890 26,476 100.0% 100.0%

College enrollment is higher among in-migrants, largely because a substantial number

of younger (under age 25) in-migrants came here to attend college, and, thus, college students are over-represented among younger in-migrants. Almost half (47%) of young adults under

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age 25 who moved to Maine between 1995 and 2000 are attending college or are enrolled in a graduate or professional program. By comparison, only 30% of the young adults in Maine since 1995 were enrolled in a program of higher education in 2000. Only a small portion of older youth is enrolled in college. Eleven percent of older (ages 25-34) in-migrants are attending college.

As seen in Table 10, the mean annual wage and salary income for youth out-migrants in 1999 (the year asked about in the 2000 Census) was $17,832 compared with $16,469 for Maine youth residents. Young in-migrants to Maine averaged $17,602. These averages suggest that out-migrants from Maine earned more than those who moved to Maine or were residents of Maine in 2000, but the differences are not very large. This finding is consistent with the somewhat higher educational attainment level of out-migrants.

Table 10 shows that those out-migrants with associate’s and bachelor’s degrees earned

higher wages and salaries than in-migrants or residents. However, among those with graduate degrees, in-migrants earned the highest wages. Combining the first four bands to capture those with less than a college education, Maine residents appear to earn higher wages, on average, than either in-migrants or out-migrants.

Table 10 Average Annual Wage and Salary Earnings of Young Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Maine

Residents by Educational Level

Education Attainment Level

Out-migrants

In-migrants Maine

Residents No school $3,333 $8,062 Less than high school $11,873 $10,289 $10,579 High school $14,013 $14,468 $14,489 Some college $11,040 $12,161 $14,369 Associates $24,175 $20,242 $20,244 Bachelors $27,273 $23,768 $24,901 Graduate $31,365 $36,666 $32,670 All $17,832 $17,602 $16,469

Table 11 shows that, once again, age differences are significant. The earnings gap widens when age is considered. Within Maine, in-migrants aged 25-34 have higher income than their counterparts living here already, while there is little difference in the income of those under age 25. Table 11 Distributions (by Age) of Average Annual Wage and Salary Earnings for Young Adults Living

in Maine Compared to Young Adults Moving to Maine between 1995 and 2000 Ages 20-24 Ages 25-34 Average Annual

Earnings Residents In-migrants Residents In-migrants Under $20,000 79.9% 81.0% 43.2% 37.1% $20,000 –29,999 14.9% 13.2% 28.9% 27.0% $30,000 –49,999 4.6% 4.8% 22.9% 26.3% $50,000 –74,999 0.5% 1.0% 3.7% 6.6% $75,000 or more 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

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Earnings are obviously related to employment. There are two ways to look at the employment characteristics of the youth population: the industry in which they are employed and the type of work that they do (i.e., their occupation).

Table 12 Industry of Employment for Youth Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Maine Residents Aged 20-34

Industry of Employment

Out-migrants

In-migrants Maine

Residents Missing 4.9% 13.5% 5.3% Accommodation and Food Services 12.4% 9.7% 10.3% Admin Support/Waste Management 3.0% 3.2% 4.0% Ag, For, Fishing and Hunting 0.3% 1.7% 4.9% Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 3.5% 2.2% 1.5% Construction 3.3% 5.3% 9.2% Education 13.1% 10.9% 8.7% Finance and Insurance 4.6% 4.4% 5.6% Health Care 12.1% 11.6% 14.8% Information 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% Management of Enterprises 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Manufacturing 1.8% 1.9% 4.1% Mining 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Not Specified 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% Other Services 3.5% 4.8% 5.1% Professional, Scientific and Tech Services 10.1% 5.1% 3.9% Public Administration 13.6% 7.9% 4.8% Real Estate 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% Retail Trade 8.6% 7.7% 11.4% Transportation and Warehousing 3.3% 2.3% 2.7% Utilities 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% Wholesale Trade 1.3% 3.1% 3.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Table 12 shows the distributions of industries employing Maine’s out-migrants, in-

migrants, and residents aged 20-34. Table 13 provides a clearer picture of which industries are more likely to be chosen by in-migrants and out-migrants compared with Maine residents. It shows the ratio of the percentage of Census respondents in each industry for out-migrants and in-migrants to the percentage of Maine residents in that industry. A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the industry is more likely to employ in-migrants or out-migrants and a ratio less than 1 indicates an industry is more likely to employ Maine residents.

The differences in industry of employment between residents, in-migrants, and out-migrants are actually not large, but there are some distinct patterns. Out-migrants are more likely to be employed in arts, entertainment, and recreation; education; public administration; and professional, scientific, and technical services. It is interesting to note that the professional, scientific, and technical services industry is more than 2.5 times as likely to employ Maine out-migrants as Maine residents. The industries in Maine that appear to attract in-migrants include education7, public administration and arts, entertainment, and recreation. All three industries employ a higher proportion of in-migrants than Maine residents.

7 This industry does not include the public K-12 school system since this industry is included as part of government.

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Table 13 Industry Specialization of Out-migrants and In-migrants in Relation to Maine Residents Ratios of Percentages (Migrants/Residents)

Industry of Employment Out-migrants In-migrants Accommodation and Food Services 1.2 0.9 Admin Support/Waste Management 0.8 0.8 Ag, For, Fishing and Hunting 0.1 0.3 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 2.4 1.5 Construction 0.4 0.6 Education 1.5 1.2 Finance and Insurance 0.8 0.8 Health Care 0.8 0.8 Information 0.9 0.9 Management of Enterprises - - Manufacturing 0.4 0.5 Mining 3.6 0.9 Not Specified Other Services 0.7 0.9 Professional, Scientific and Tech. Services 2.6 1.3 Public Administration 2.9 1.6 Real Estate 1.0 1.1 Retail Trade 0.8 0.7 Transportation and Warehousing 1.2 0.8 Utilities 0.9 0.4 Wholesale Trade 0.3 0.8

Table 14 and Table 15 show similar information for the population arrayed by

occupation type rather than industry of employment.

Table 14 Occupation Types of Out-migrants, In-migrants, and Maine Residents Ages 20-34

Occupation Types Out-migrants In-migrants Maine

Residents Missing 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% Architecture & Engineering 3.6% 1.7% 1.2% Arts, Design, Entertainment & Sports 3.2% 3.0% 1.4% Buildings & Grounds Maintenance 0.6% 2.4% 2.9% Business & Financial Operations 4.5% 3.2% 2.3% Community & Social Services 1.9% 2.4% 1.4% Computer & Mathematical 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% Construction 3.4% 4.6% 6.8% Education, Training & Library 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% Farming, Fishing & Forestry 0.2% 1.4% 3.0% Food Preparation 8.8% 8.2% 6.9% Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 4.1% 5.6% 3.6% Healthcare Support 2.1% 2.7% 3.1% Installation, Maintenance & Repair 4.1% 4.4% 3.8% Legal 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% Life, Physical & Social Science 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% Management 5.3% 6.3% 4.4% Military 1.9% 1.2% 0.4%

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Table 14 (Continued)

Occupation Types Out-migrants In-migrants Maine

Residents Office & Administrative Support 15.0% 13.9% 14.4% Personal Service 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% Production 4.3% 5.9% 9.2% Protective Service 2.4% 1.9% 1.4% Sales 10.3% 11.0% 10.9% Transportation 4.7% 4.7% 6.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Both in-migrants and out-migrants tend to be concentrated in the same occupation

types relative to Maine residents. These include professional and technical occupations (such as architects, engineers and scientists); education-related; and computer professions. In-migrants are also more likely to be in healthcare professional and technical occupations. Maine residents are more likely to be in farming, fishing, and forestry; construction; production (manufacturing); and transportation occupations.

Table 15 Occupational Specializations of Out-migrants and In-migrants in Relation to Maine Residents

Ratios of Percentages (Migrants/Residents)

Occupation Types Out-migrants In-migrants Architecture & Engineering 3.1% 1.5% Arts, Design, Entertainment & Sports 2.2% 2.1% Buildings & Grounds Maintenance 0.2% 0.8% Business & Financial Operations 1.9% 1.4% Community & Social Services 1.4% 1.7% Computer & Mathematical 2.5% 1.9% Construction 0.5% 0.7% Education, Training & Library 1.4% 1.4% Farming, Fishing & Forestry 0.1% 0.5% Food Preparation 1.3% 1.2% Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 1.1% 1.6% Healthcare Support 0.7% 0.9% Installation, Maintenance & Repair 1.1% 1.2% Legal 1.4% 2.0% Life, Physical & Social Science 3.7% 2.7% Management 1.2% 1.4% Military 4.5% 2.8% Office & Administrative Support 1.0% 1.0% Personal Service 0.9% 0.9% Production 0.5% 0.6% Protective Service 1.6% 1.3% Sales 0.9% 1.0% Transportation 0.7% 0.7% Total 100.0% 100.0%

Table 16 provides evidence that the labor force participation of in-migrants and non-migrants are comparable. Since younger in-migrants are attending college in greater proportion, fewer are working. A higher percentage are also in the armed forces, nearly all

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located at the Naval Air Station in Brunswick. With these exceptions, the differences are relatively minor.

Table 16 Employment Status of Young Adults Ages 20-34 in 2000 Young Adults Percent of Total

Employment Status

In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000

In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine in 1995-

2000

Working 139,371 28,261 76.4% 70.81% Employed/not at work 3,211 741 1.76% 1.86% Unemployed 8,526 1,728 4.67% 4.33% Armed forces 397 1,926 0.22% 4.83% Not in labor force 30,907 7,253 16.94% 18.17% Total 182,412 39,909 100.00% 100.00%

2.4 Trends in Youth Migration: Northern and Southern Maine

Maine is divided into two regions for purposes of PUMS data, a northern and a

southern region comprised of ten and six counties, respectively:

Northern Maine Region Southern Maine RegionAroostook Androscoggin Franklin Cumberland Hancock Kennebec Knox Lincoln Oxford Sagadahoc Piscataquis York Penobscot Somerset Waldo Washington

Among Maine’s youth out-migrants 20-34 years of age, about two thirds (65.4%) came from the southern Maine region and the balance from the northern region. Table 17 compares the age structure of the out-migrants from the northern and southern regions. There is little difference between the two regions, except that there is a slight tendency for out-migrants from the south to be younger and out-migrants from the north to be older. This is likely associated with a larger proportion of this group going out of state to college.

Table 17 Maine Region of Residence in 1995 by Age of Young Out-migrants

Ages Northern

Maine Southern

Maine 20-24 33.7% 66.3% 25-29 34.6% 65.4% 30-34 37.3% 62.7% 20-34 35.0% 65.0%

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Table 18 provides a picture of differences in educational attainment for young out-migrants by region of origin. This table uses both definitions of age groups, that is, age in 1995 and age in 2000. Consistent with the age data noted above, and in contrast with migrants from the northern region, migrants from the southern region who were 20-34 in 1995 had a significantly higher proportion of associate’s and bachelor’s degrees. However, the proportions were closer for the 20-34 year olds based on age in 2000. Graduate degree holders were about the same for both regions no matter which point in time the age groups are measured, although the numbers of respondents are relatively small and may not accurately reflect the actual population of out-migrants with graduate degrees.

Table 18 Educational Attainment of Young Out-migrants by Region of Origin in Maine Ages 20-34 in 1995 Ages 20-34 in 2000

Educational Attainment Level

Northern Maine

Southern Maine

Northern Maine

Southern Maine

No school - - 0.0% 0.0% Less than high school 5.4% 7.8% 6.9% 5.5% High school 24.6% 16.9% 28.1% 19.8% Some college 23.1% 13.7% 29.4% 37.0% Associates 7.7% 11.4% 6.3% 5.8% Bachelors 29.2% 40.2% 23.1% 25.6% Graduate 10.0% 10.0% 6.3% 6.2%

While a great deal of anecdotal information indicates that a substantial portion of the population that moves to Maine has connections to the state, either friends or family, having gone to school or summer camp here, vacationed here, or had some other tie, in fact, four out of five persons moving to Maine between 1995 and 2000 were not born in Maine. As seen in Table 19, a small proportion of young adults (about one in five) moving to Maine were born in Maine. However, of those moving to Maine from a foreign country, 43% were born in Maine (not shown in Table 19). Of those moving to Maine who were not born in Maine, about one-third were born in the state in which they last lived before moving to Maine. The remaining 46% were already living in a state that was different from their state of birth when they moved to Maine. Though Census data do not shed light on one’s motives for moving, they suggest that about half of young adults are highly mobile and, over time, make moves that lead them to live in a number of states or regions. For many of them, Maine may not be their final destination and their stay may be short.

Table 19 Location of Birth for Young In-migrants to Maine

In-migrant Birthplace Percent of In-migrants

Maine 19.8% State where last lived 33.6% Different state 46.4% Total 100.0%

The four southwestern counties of York, Cumberland, Sagadahoc, and Lincoln contain 41% of Maine’s population. Table 20 shows that over half (53%) of the young adults who came to Maine between 1995 and 2000 settled in this region. However, the Naval Air Station at Brunswick accounts for nearly 1700 new migrants to Maine annually (and an equal number of out-migrants). Excluding those who are associated with NAS-B, in-migrants to Maine

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would be more evenly distributed. The next largest share (10.4%) located in the Penobscot County area, likely due to the presence of the University of Maine. Kennebec County receives the largest number of young in-migrants who were born in Maine. The suburban communities surrounding the Portland Metropolitan urban core receive the second highest percentage of returning natives. With the exception of the Portland suburbs, fewer of those moving to southern Maine are natives than of the ones moving further into Maine.

Table 20 Maine Region of Residence for Young In-migrants

Region8

Percent of

Total Maine In-migrants

Percent of Region’s

In-migrants Born in Maine

York County & NW Cumberland 16.0% 19.9% Portland Metropolitan –Center 14.5% 21.8% Portland Metropolitan –Suburbs 11.2% 26.3% Lincoln & Sagadahoc County, Brunswick, Harpswell 11.6% 11.7% Hancock, Knox & Waldo (excl. Winterport) Counties 9.3% 22.7% Kennebec County 6.7% 27.4% Androscoggin County 8.4% 22.3% Franklin, Oxford & Somerset Counties 5.7% 23.9% Piscataquis & Penobscot Counties & Winterport 10.4% 23.2% Washington & Aroostook Counties 6.2% 22.6% Total Maine 100.0% 21.6%

Table 21 shows that less than half (42.7%) of in-migrants between the ages of 20 and

34 are married, which is not very different from the 44.6% of all Maine residents in the same age group. Of the one third of in-migrating young adults who are 20-24 years of age, nearly three quarters (73.9%) were never married. In contrast, only slightly more than one third (34.9%) of young in-migrants aged 25-34 have remained single.

Table 21 Marital Status of Young Adults by Migration Status

Ages 20-34 Ages 20-24 Ages 25-34

Marital Status

In Maine in 1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000

In Maine in 1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000

In Maine in 1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000Married 44.6% 42.7% 18.5% 22.6% 56.5% 53.0% Never Married 46.4% 48.0% 78.3% 73.9% 31.6% 34.9% Divorced/Widowed/Separated 9.0% 9.3% 3.2% 3.5% 11.9% 12.1%

Table 22 indicates that fewer in-migrant young adults live in households with children

than Maine residents. Nearly two thirds (64.4%) of young adult in-migrants live in households without children (65.4%) or other individuals under the age of 18. Half (49.7%) of the young

8 Census PUMS file regions do not usually follow county lines because a minimum population of 100,000 is required for each region. Most counties in Maine lack sufficient population and must be grouped. Metropolitan areas with populations of 100,000 or more are designated first and the balance of the county is counted separately.

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adults in Maine in 1995 lived in households with children present. In addition, fewer in-migrant young adults live in family arrangements, and of those who do, the household size is smaller. About 44% of young in-migrants are individuals without families compared to 26.5% of young adults with the same family circumstances living in Maine in 1995. Among young in-migrants living in family settings, about 40% of the individuals live in 2-person households compared to only 27% of the young adults in Maine in 1995. This implies that young in-migrants likely postpone having children until they arrive in Maine. Thus, school considerations become larger once young adults are in Maine.

Table 22 Household Characteristics by Migration Status

Young Adults Ages 20-34 All Ages 5+

Household Characteristics In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000 In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000 None 48.8% 64.4% 52.8% 54.1%

Persons Under 18 in Household One or more 51.2% 35.6% 47.2% 45.9% None 50.3% 65.4% 53.7% 54.8%

Children in the Household One or more 49.7% 34.6% 46.3% 45.2% Householder/NF 26.5% 44.3% 20.1% 30.5% Family: 2 persons 19.9% 22.0% 29.4% 24.2% 3 persons 22.9% 14.9% 18.2% 15.2% 4 persons 20.7% 11.9% 20.1% 16.3%

Persons in Household

5 + persons 10.1% 6.9% 12.3% 13.9% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Not surprisingly, those under 25 years of age are less likely to be homeowners than

those 25 and over, regardless of migration status. However, Table 23 shows that only one-fifth (21.8%) of in-migrants under 25 are homeowners, compared to half (50.2%) of those that have been here more than 5 years. As expected, for those 25 and over, the gap between residents in 1995 and in-migrants narrows (39% v. 66%).

Table 23 Housing Arrangements of Individuals Aged 20-34 by Migration Status

All Ages Under 25 Over 25

Tenure In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine in

1995-2000 In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine

1995-2000In Maine in

1995

Moved to Maine 1995-

2000 Owners 61.1% 34.3% 50.2% 21.8% 65.7% 38.7% Renters 38.9% 65.7% 49.8% 78.2% 34.3% 61.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

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2.5 The Youth Who Moved within Maine

In addition to the nearly 40,000 young adults who moved to Maine from another state between 1995 and 2000 (see Table 16), another 114,405 moved within the State. As indicated in Table 24 , the majority of young people who moved within Maine, like the majority of all those who move, moved within the region in which they currently lived.

Table 24 Residence in 1995 for Young Adults in Maine

Residence in 1995 Number Percent Lived in same house in 1995 and 2000 68,007 37.3%

Moved to another house in same PUMA region 77,955 42.7% Moved to another PUMA region in Maine 36,450 20.0% Sub-total 114,405 62.7% Total 182,412 100.0%

Table 25 shows that, of the young adults who moved within the state between 1995

and 2000, over two-thirds (68.1%) moved to another house locally within the same PUMA region. The percentage of youth who moved within the same PUMA region ranged from a low of 40.7% for the Portland Suburbs to a high of 86.0% in Washington and Aroostook Counties.

Table 25 Young Adults Who Moved within the Same Region between 1995 and 2000

Moved within Same Region Region (PUMA) Number Percent

York County & NW Cumberland 9,693 74.6% Portland Metropolitan –Center 8,385 58.4% Portland Metropolitan –Suburbs 4,036 40.7% Lincoln & Sagadahoc Counties, Brunswick, Harpswell 4,734 63.9% Hancock, Knox & Waldo (excl. Winterport) Counties. 7,186 71.7% Kennebec County 7,874 69.5% Androscoggin County 8,566 75.3% Franklin, Oxford & Somerset Counties 8,069 70.5% Piscataquis & Penobscot Counties & Winterport 12,607 69.1% Washington & Aroostook Counties 6,805 86.0% Total Maine 77,955 68.1%

Most of those who moved beyond the boundaries of their community or local area moved to an adjacent county or PUMA region. Table 26 shows that southern Maine has the highest levels of in-migration, but nearly half of the movement of young adults in that region was between the PUMA regions that encompass York, Cumberland, Sagadahoc, and Lincoln Counties, not people moving there from other regions of the state. The Penobscot County area also gained substantially, and drew more widely from across the state than did southern Maine.

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Table 26 Origin and Destination Regions of Migrating Youth in Maine

Destination Origin Region (PUMA) Number Percent Number Percent

Net Number

York County & NW Cumberland 3,300 9.0% 2,767 7.5% 533 Portland Metropolitan –Center 5,965 16.2% 5,545 15.1% 420 Portland Metropolitan –Suburbs 5,876 16.0% 5,185 14.1% 691 Lincoln & Sagadahoc Counties, Brunswick, Harpswell 2,466 6.7% 2,858 7.8% -392 Hancock, Knox & Waldo (excl. Winterport) Counties 2,834 7.7% 2,504 6.8% 330 Kennebec County 3,463 9.4% 3,650 9.9% -187 Androscoggin County 2,815 7.6% 2,601 7.1% 214 Franklin, Oxford & Somerset Counties 3,377 9.2% 4,089 11.1% -712 Piscataquis & Penobscot Counties & Winterport 5,628 15.3% 4,359 11.8% 1,269 Washington & Aroostook Counties 1,104 3.0% 3,270 8.9% -2,166 Total Maine 36,828 100.0% 36,828 100.0% 0

Though the belief that people from remote rural regions are moving to southern and coastal regions is widespread, the data on population migration between 1995 and 2000 do not support it. Broad regional shifts in population do not appear to be occurring. When migration of young adults between southern Maine and the rest of the state is compared, 90% of the population aged 20-34 who were living in Cumberland, York, Lincoln, and Sagadahoc Counties stayed within the 4-county southern region when they moved. Likewise, over 90% of the population of young adults living outside of these counties stayed outside of the 4-county southern Maine region when they moved. The data do suggest that there is some migration to larger population centers nearby. For instance, young adults who left Hancock and Waldo Counties between 1995 and 2000 moved primarily to Penobscot or Kennebec Counties where larger job and trade centers exist. Likewise, few people leaving Washington or Hancock Counties ended up in southern Maine. Most who left, moved to Penobscot County. On average, only 20-22% of the young adults who leave inland counties, move to the York-Cumberland-Sagadahoc region and less than 10% move to the mid-coast.

2.6 Conclusion

The story of “young people leaving Maine” has been told for well more than a century. Like many stories told by so many people over so long a period, there is truth in it, but a detailed analysis of the trends over the latter part of the 1990’s reveals a much more complex truth than the story admits. Youth do leave Maine and do leave the rural areas, but other youth also come. The largest net out-migration of youth occurs in the age group most likely going to college; other youth age groups showed a net in-migration. Youth do leave for better jobs, and these jobs tend to be not as available in Maine as they are elsewhere, but many of the same jobs do exist in Maine. Youth do return to Maine after leaving, but the majority of young people who move to Maine were not born here. The actual patterns of youth migration, both within and beyond Maine’s borders, suggest that capturing, or recapturing, a larger share of the young population is well within

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Maine’s reach. The changes needed to keep a larger proportion of college-bound students here and to attract a larger number of in-migrants may seem large, but even small changes in migration patterns will dramatically alter Maine’s oldest story about its young people.

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3. Out-migration from Aroostook County between 1995 and 2002 To examine some of the characteristics of out-migration from Aroostook County, the IRS county-to-county migration data for the years 1995 through 2002 were used. These data are based on the address used by federal income tax filers, and reflect a change in address from one filing year to the next. They provide a picture of migration trends on an annual basis rather than the five-year snapshot that the Census provides once every ten years. However, no data are available on age, so the IRS data in Table 27 furnish only a limited picture that is only partly related to youth migration.

Table 27 Destinations of Out-migrants from Aroostook County Based on IRS Tax Returns Number of Returns Filed Outside of Aroostook that Were Filed in Aroostook

During the Preceding Year

Year Maine Different State Outside U.S. Total U.S. Outside U.S. + Total U.S.

1995-96 522 671 36 1,193 1,229 1996-97 561 682 47 1,243 1,290 1997-98 570 716 44 1,286 1,330 1998-99 560 690 78 1,250 1,328 1999-00 551 592 57 1,143 1,200 2000-01 640 605 50 1,245 1,295 2001-02 594 549 39 1,143 1,182 1995-02 3,998 4,505 351 8,503 8,854

Number of Exemptions Claimed Outside of Aroostook that Were Claimed in Aroostook During the Preceding Year

Year Maine Different State Outside US Total US Total All 1995-96 905 1,185 55 2,090 2,145 1996-97 984 1,221 84 2,205 2,289 1997-98 1,007 1,309 67 2,316 2,383 1998-99 982 1,226 121 2,208 2,329 1999-00 933 1,057 85 1,990 2,075 2000-01 1,086 1,078 85 2,164 2,249 2001-02 892 966 81 1,858 1,939 1995-02 6,789 8,042 578 14,831 15,409

Table 27 shows where out-migrants from Aroostook County went based on their

federal tax returns. The top half of the table contains the number of returns (an approximation of the number of households) while the bottom half presents the number of exemptions claimed (which approximates the number of people).9

As Table 28 shows, the majority of Aroostook out-migrants headed to other destinations in the U.S., with slightly more households migrating to states other than Maine when summed over the period. On average, over entire the 1995-2002 span, more than half (50.9%) of out-migrants from Aroostook County left Maine. However, based on returns filed,

9 The exemptions data overstate the actual number of people since those who are blind and over 65 can claim extra exemptions. Nationally, about 4% of returns claim an extra exemption for over 65 or blindness. See http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/02in01si.xls.

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the proportions have reversed recently, and Aroostook residents are now more likely to have left for Maine destinations than for other states. It should also be noted that Aroostook County out-migrants were also much more likely to migrate to a different country; 4% of Aroostook County out-migrants moved to a different country compared with 1.5% of Maine residents. This is most likely Aroostook residents moving to Canada.

Table 28 Distributions of Aroostook Out-migrants’ Destinations

Distribution of Returns Presented in Table 27 (Top) Year

Maine Different State

Outside U.S. Total U.S. Outside U.S.

+ Total U.S. 1995-96 42.5% 54.6% 2.9% 97.1% 100.0% 1996-97 43.5% 52.9% 3.6% 96.4% 100.0% 1997-98 42.9% 53.8% 3.3% 96.7% 100.0% 1998-99 42.2% 52.0% 5.9% 94.1% 100.0% 1999-00 45.9% 49.3% 4.8% 95.3% 100.0% 2000-01 49.4% 46.7% 3.9% 96.1% 100.0% 2001-02 50.3% 46.4% 3.3% 96.7% 100.0% 1995-02 45.2% 50.9% 4.0% 96.0% 100.0%

The data from Table 27 and Table 28 indicate that the rate of out-migration and the

distribution of destinations of out-migrants from Aroostook County have remained quite stable over a number of years. This is important partly because the period examined includes

Figure 1 Aroostook County and Maine Out-migration Estimates Based upon Tax Return Exemptions Claimed

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-0249,000

49,500

50,000

50,500

51,000

51,500

52,000

AroostookMaine

23

the years right after the closing of Loring Air Force Base. While Loring’s closing did not apparently result in a significant spike in out-migration in the years immediately following, there was also a fairly steady decline in the rate of out-migration from 1997 to 2002 (with a slight rise in 2001). Maine experienced a similar, but more irregular decline in out-migrants as displayed in Figure 1.

The IRS data give details on the destinations of out-migrants at the county and state levels. The proportions of those income tax filers who left Aroostook County for a different county within Maine are shown in Table 29. For those who left Aroostook County, but stayed in Maine, there are two principal destinations: Penobscot County and southern Maine (Cumberland and York Counties). Penobscot County attracts more than one third of all Aroostook County residents who move elsewhere in Maine. Cumberland County is the next most frequent destination, but with only half the frequency of Penobscot County. This pattern is consistent with the one identified from the Census data that showed out-migrants moving primarily to neighboring counties. Together, York and Cumberland Counties account for a little more than one quarter (27.7%) of Aroostook out-migrants with a Maine destination. Kennebec and Androscoggin Counties are the next most popular destinations.

Table 29 Maine County Destinations for Aroostook Out-migrants Based upon Tax Exemptions Claimed

Yearly Aroostook Out-migrants Destination County for Aroostook Out-migrants 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

Total 1995-02

Percent Total of 1995-02

Androscoggin 57 45 52 59 31 38 49 331 4.9% Cumberland 150 140 170 201 180 163 168 1172 17.3% Franklin 16 24 26 17 83 1.2% Hancock 29 64 66 41 45 73 45 363 5.3% Kennebec 81 55 77 90 89 98 74 564 8.3% Knox 45 27 21 11 37 16 157 2.3% Lincoln 0 0.0% Oxford 37 29 29 95 1.4% Penobscot 319 379 346 309 290 358 341 2342 34.5% Piscataquis 18 18 0.3% Sagadahoc 17 24 26 19 86 1.3% Somerset 20 14 28 37 99 1.5% Waldo 15 28 44 22 39 58 27 233 3.4% Washington 28 51 28 18 56 29 24 234 3.4% York 92 116 102 106 92 112 85 705 10.4% Total 849 949 943 939 898 1058 846 849 100.0%

The IRS does not provide complete data for each state to which migration takes place,

but summarizes them by region of the U.S. As shown in Table 30, the southern states claim the majority of migrants from Aroostook County, which mostly reflects a large retirement population. The Northeast is the next most common, with Massachusetts and New Hampshire being the most likely destinations given statewide trends.

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Table 30 Destination Regions for Aroostook Out-migrants Based upon Tax Exemptions Claimed Yearly Aroostook Out-migrants Destination

Region 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 Total

1995-02

Midwest 128 129 156 112 102 100 112 839 Northeast 299 309 255 229 247 243 223 1,805 South 451 429 531 467 341 379 359 2,957 West 197 192 205 195 152 193 181 1,315

The IRS data do permit a comparison of the incomes as reported on the Form 1040 for those who left and for those who stayed in Aroostook County. These data, which are summarized in Table 31, support the usual hypothesis that people leave to earn higher incomes. However, these IRS data also suggest that the payoffs from migration may not be immediate.

Table 31 Average Reported Gross Income for Aroostook Out-migrants and Residents

Year Maine Different State

Outside of U.S.

Total U.S.

Stayed in Aroostook

1995-96 $20,483 $20,565 $18,139 $20,529 $27,419 1996-97 $21,237 $21,529 $20,383 $21,397 $28,302 1997-98 $22,700 $25,182 $18,455 $24,082 $30,298 1998-99 $24,532 $25,258 $21,077 $24,934 $31,829 1999-00 $25,902 $28,895 $22,842 $27,452 $33,045 2000-01 $25,641 $28,355 $23,320 $26,959 $34,650 2001-02 $26,337 $26,208 $24,513 $26,274 $35,117

On average, the tax returns each year for those who left Aroostook (but remained in

the U.S.) reported less income than the returns for those who remained in Aroostook. This gap actually increased over time from $6,900 in 1995-96 to $8,800 in 2001-02, thus indicating that income was likely a factor in the decision to leave the County.10 Note that since the IRS data tend to exclude college students, who often do not have reportable incomes, it is more descriptive of the working age population, including those young people who have graduated from college.

The IRS data are consistent with the Census PUMS data in many ways, but they also

provide some additional information. Aroostook out-migrants, with the likely exception of retirees, do not really go far. In recent years, they have moved mostly within Maine, more often to northern Maine (Penobscot County). More importantly, these IRS annual data show a relatively steady rate of out-migration with no major peaks or valleys over the last few years. This is important, because the factors influencing out-migration decisions are themselves fairly consistent, which allows responses to be shaped on a consistent basis. Shaping a response, however, requires more precise knowledge of the factors affecting the migration choice. This is the purpose of the surveys of high school and college students discussed in Sections 4 and 5 which follow.

10 The retirement population influences this trend as well, since reported income tends to be lower after retirement.

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4. High School Students and Migration While some of the migrants from Aroostook County may return, the key to dealing with the problems of migration and youth migration must come from addressing the needs of those who are currently in Aroostook County and have not yet left. Two populations are most critical: those still in high school and those in college. The first group is in the process of making its first critical migration decision with respect to if and where they will attend college or enter the labor force. The second group is also close to a migration decision, with the added factor that their higher education provides them with skills that make them potentially more mobile. Understanding the dynamics affecting the locational choices of these two groups will permit leaders in Aroostook to focus both youth retention and economic development efforts on realistic and effective strategies. This section examines the results of a survey of more than 1000 students in all seventeen Aroostook high schools that was conducted during May-June 2004. Surveys were distributed in class to all juniors and seniors by school personnel. The surveys were completed on site and returned to school personnel who forwarded them to Center for Business and Economic Research for coding and analysis. Appendix A contains a copy of the survey instrument and some details about the schools involved as well as the number of surveys distributed, returned, and included in the analysis.

4.1 High School Students’ Views of Living In or Out of Aroostook County

Table 32 provides the summary of responses to the question about where the high

school students desired to be after high school. The questions explicitly asked for the desired location “if there were no barriers in the way”. More than two thirds (71.1%) of those who indicated that they had identified plans said that they desired to leave Aroostook after high school, but the largest proportion (39.6%) also indicated they desired to stay in Maine. The proportions of the 714 students who indicated they would leave Aroostook for locations either in or out of Maine exceeded those who indicated they desired to stay. It should be noted that more than a quarter (29.0%) of the 1005 students who provided usable responses to the survey did not state a preference.

Table 32 Desired Location After High School Assuming No Barriers Percent

Desired Location FrequencyIncluding Missing

Excluding Missing

In Aroostook 206 20.5% 28.9% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 283 28.2% 39.6% Outside of Maine 225 22.4% 31.5% Missing 291 29.0% - - Total 1005 100.0% 100.0%

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Table 33 shows additional details about the specific plans (assuming no barriers) that high school juniors and seniors have after high school. By far, the most commonly expressed plan is to continue their education (89.0%), with a quarter (24.0%) desiring to do so in Aroostook County, and well more than half (62.0%) desiring to do so some place in Maine.11 This is a noteworthy result, because it suggests that Aroostook juniors and seniors put a very high priority on post-secondary education. However, it is important to note that the expressed intention to continue with education does not mean everyone will in fact do so. Some students will not be able to continue their education for one reason or another, and it is known that there is an upward bias in responses by all high school students to the question of whether they plan to continue their education. (That is, students tend to say they will continue their education because they think that is the “right” answer.) In addition, it is likely that the sample of respondents to the survey may over-represent those who are inclined to go on to higher education compared with those who are not. Nonetheless, the data suggest a desire to continue education compared with other possible responses that exceeds the likely effect of such biases.

Table 33 Plans After High School Assuming No Barriers

Desired Location Plans After High School Frequency Percent

Continue my education 171 24.0% Join the family business 6 0.8% Find a job 15 2.1% Take some time off and then decide 11 1.5% Join the military 3 0.4%

In Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% Continue my education 271 38.0% Join the family business 2 0.3% Find a job 5 0.7% Take some time off and then decide 3 0.4% Join the military 1 0.1%

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Other 1 0.1% Continue my education 193 27.0% Join the family business 1 0.1% Find a job 8 1.1% Take some time off and then decide 4 0.6% Join the military 14 2.0%

Outside of Maine

Other 5 0.7% Total 714 100.0%

Note: Frequency Missing = 291 The data in Table 33 indicate that students who will not go on to post-secondary education but expect to find a job, take time off, or join the family business are more likely to do so in Aroostook County than elsewhere. However, the number of observations in these categories is too small to draw firm conclusions.

11 Percentages may vary because of non responses and missing data.

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These two tables, Table 32 and Table 33, both confirm that there is a strong preference for leaving Aroostook after high school, driven more by considerations of post-secondary education than other factors. However, there is also a very large pool of “undecided” students. Among those who did not indicate a preference, 57% were juniors and 43% were seniors.

Juniors and seniors can be expected to have different plans since seniors are obviously

much closer to leaving high school. This is particularly the case with the survey results reported here, because the survey was conducted near the end of the school year. Table 34 shows the breakdown of the responses by grade of where students plan (assuming no barriers) to be after high school. Interestingly, juniors are slightly more likely to indicate plans to be outside of Aroostook County; 76.8% of juniors expressed a preference for being outside the County v. 66.5% for seniors. The difference is largely accounted for by a stronger preference for being outside of Maine among juniors (37.4% of juniors express a desire to be outside of Maine v. 26.4% of seniors). The differences between juniors and seniors are statistically significant.12

Table 34 After High School Location Plans by Grade Assuming No Barriers

Grade Desired Location FrequencyPercent of

Both GradesPercent of

Grade In Aroostook 79 11.2% 23.2% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 134 19.0% 39.4% Outside of Maine 127 18.0% 37.4% Junior

Total 340 48.3% 100.0% In Aroostook 122 17.3% 33.5% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 146 20.7% 40.1% Outside of Maine 96 13.6% 26.4% Senior

Total 364 51.7% 100.0% In Aroostook 201 28.6% - In Maine, but not in Aroostook 280 39.8% - Outside of Maine 223 31.7% -

Both Grades

Total 704 100.0% -

Note: Frequency Missing = 301

Table 35 provides detailed information on plans after high school by grade. Both juniors and seniors expressed very clear desires to continue their education after high school. The differences between juniors and seniors in expressed desire to be outside of Aroostook are primarily set by the juniors’ stronger desire to go to college outside of Maine (31.8% of juniors v. 23.1% of seniors). The other side of this is that seniors are more likely to indicate that they will continue their education in Maine and in Aroostook County than juniors (28.9% of seniors v. 18.2% of juniors). The differences between juniors and seniors with respect to the location in which they desire to continue their education are also statistically significant.13

12 Chi square p=0.001 13 Chi square p=0.001

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Table 35 After-High-School Location and Activity Plans by Grade Assuming No Barriers

Grade Desired Location Plans After High School Frequency

Percent of Both Grades

Percent of

Grade Continue my education 62 8.8% 18.2%

Join the family business 3 0.4% 0.9% Find a job 8 1.1% 2.4% Take some time off and then decide 3 0.4% 0.9% Join the military 3 0.4% 0.9%

In Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% 0.0% Continue my education 131 18.6% 38.5% Join the family business 0 0.0% 0.0% Find a job 3 0.4% 0.9% Take some time off and then decide 0 0.0% 0.0% Join the military 0 0.0% 0.0%

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% 0.0% Continue my education 108 15.3% 31.8% Join the family business 0 0.0% 0.0% Find a job 4 0.6% 1.2% Take some time off and then decide 1 0.1% 0.3% Join the military 11 1.6% 3.2%

Junior

Outside of Maine

Other 3 0.4% 0.9% Total 340 48.3% 100.0% Continue my education 105 14.9% 28.9%

Join the family business 3 0.4% 0.8% Find a job 7 1.0% 1.9% Take some time off and then decide 7 1.0% 1.9% Join the military 0 0.0% 0.0%

In Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% 0.0% Continue my education 137 19.5% 37.6% Join the family business 2 0.3% 0.6% Find a job 2 0.3% 0.6% Take some time off and then decide 3 0.4% 0.8% Join the military 1 0.1% 0.3%

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Other 1 0.1% 0.3% Continue my education 84 11.9% 23.1% Join the family business 1 0.1% 0.3% Find a job 3 0.4% 0.8% Take some time off and then decide 3 0.4% 0.8% Join the military 3 0.4% 0.8%

Outside of Maine

Other 2 0.3% 0.6%

Senior

Total 364 51.7% 100.0% Note: Frequency Missing = 301

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There are likely many reasons for these differences between juniors and seniors in their college plans. Seniors will have invested more time in the college decision and may have found colleges and universities in Maine and Aroostook more suitable to their needs than they might have anticipated when they were juniors. Financial and/or other considerations may have also intervened by the time a student becomes a senior. These differences do suggest that efforts to shape locational preferences about college education need to be shaped differently for juniors and seniors.

Another important characteristic that may be influential in shaping locational preferences is gender. Table 36 shows the breakdown of the preferred location by gender. Again, there are important differences. Females are slightly more likely than males to choose to be outside Aroostook (72.5% v. 69.5%). Females are more likely than males to choose a location in Maine, but not in Aroostook; males are slightly more likely to choose a location outside of Maine. However, these differences are not statistically significant.

Table 36 After-High-School Location Plans by Gender Assuming No Barriers

Gender Desired Location FrequencyPercent of

Both GendersPercent of

Gender In Aroostook 99 14.1% 30.5% In Maine but not in Aroostook 118 16.9% 36.3% Outside of Maine 108 15.4% 33.2%

Male

Total 325 46.4% 100.0% In Aroostook 103 14.7% 27.5% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 161 23.0% 42.9% Outside of Maine 111 15.9% 29.6%

Female

Total 375 53.6% 100.0% In Aroostook 202 28.9% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 279 39.9% Outside of Maine 219 31.3% Both Genders

Total 700 100.0% Note: Frequency Missing = 305

However, Table 37 shows that, when the type of plans are examined, the differences between females and males expand somewhat. Females are more likely than males to choose “continue my education” with the largest differences (42.1% v. 33.9%) between those who wish to go to school elsewhere in Maine. Overall, females are more likely than males to want to continue their education (93.1% v. 84.3%) and this difference is statistically significant,14 and reflects a larger national trend in which females are more likely to undertake post-secondary education at all levels than males.

14 Fishers exact p<0.001 for “Continue my education” v. all other choices in question.

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Table 37 After-High-School Location and Activity Plans by Gender Assuming No Barriers

Gender District

Location Plans After High School Frequency

Percent of Both Genders

Percent of

Gender Continue my education 81 11.6% 24.9%

Join the family business 6 0.9% 1.9% Find a job 7 1% 2.2% Take some time off and then decide 2 0.3% 0.6% Join the military 3 0.4% 0.9%

In Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% 0.0% Continue my education 110 15.7% 33.9% Join the family business 2 0.3% 0.6% Find a job 2 0.3% 0.6% Take some time off and then decide 3 0.4% 0.9% Join the military outside Aroostook 1 0.1% 0.3%

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Other 0 0% 0% Continue my education 83 11.9% 25.5% Join the family business 0 0% 0% Find a job 5 0.7% 1.5% Take some time off and then decide 2 0.3% 0.6% Join the military 14 2% 4.3%

Male

Outside of Maine

Other 4 0.6% 1.2% Total 325 46.4% 100%

Continue my education 86 12.3% 22.9% Join the family business 0 0% 0% Find a job 8 1.1% 2.1% Take some time off and then decide 9 1.3% 2.4% Join the military 0 0% 0%

In Aroostook

Other 0 0.0% 0.0% Continue my education 158 22.6% 42.1% Join the family business 0 0% 0% Find a job 2 0.3% 0.5% Take some time off and then decide 0 0% 0% Join the military outside Aroostook 0 0% 0%

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Other 1 0.1% 0.3% Continue my education 105 15.0% 28.0% Join the family business 1 0.1% 0.3% Find a job 2 0.3% 0.5% Take some time off and then decide 2 0.3% 0.5% Join the military 0 0% 0%

Outside of Maine

Other 1 0.1% 0.3%

Female

Total 375 53.6% 100.0%

Note: Frequency Missing = 305

31

The questions examined so far have focused on plans immediately after high school. Additional questions were asked about locational preferences beyond whatever period of education the student planned. Table 38 provides information on responses to a question about the preferred location after all education had been completed. These results are not significantly different from the results about their stated preferences for location immediately after high school. In other words, it is likely that in terms of formed ideas about where they want to live, high school students expect that their location after high school will be their location for some time.

Table 38 Preferred Place in which to Live After All Education is Completed

Preferred Location After All Education Frequency Percent In Aroostook 262 26.9% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 362 37.1% Outside of Maine 351 36.0%

Note: Frequency Missing = 30 This raises the question of whether those who leave Aroostook County may desire to return at some point in the future. The responses to this question are shown in Table 39. While over three quarters (76.5%) of all respondents indicated they will or would like to return to the County, almost three quarters (72.1%) of these expected returnees said that they do not see themselves doing so “in the foreseeable future”.

Table 39 Expectations about Returning to Aroostook Returning to Aroostook Frequency Percent

Will find a way to return 153 21.3% Would like to return, but not in foreseeable future 396 55.2% Do not wish or expect to return 168 23.4%

Note: Frequency Missing = 30

One of the stories often told about youth in rural areas like Aroostook is that they strongly desire to move to large cities for the attractions of an urban lifestyle. As Table 40 shows, this is not the case for Aroostook high school students. Only 17% of respondents indicated they would prefer to live in a big city like Boston, and the rest were nearly evenly divided between a preference for living in a rural area or a small city like Portland. No doubt, many of these students will alter their views once exposed to large cities during college, but the “bright lights-big city” explanation for youth out-migration does not appear to be as strong as it is sometimes portrayed.

Table 40 Preferred Type of Region in which to Live

Preferred Type of Region Frequency Percent A large city like Boston 167 17.0% A small city like Portland 415 42.2% A rural area like Aroostook 402 40.9%

Note: Frequency Missing = 21

In examining these preferences about where to be after high school, there were no statistically significant differences between juniors and seniors, but there were between males and females. Table 41 shows that males were more likely to expect to live in Aroostook County after completing all education (males 31.4% v. females 23.4%), while females were

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more likely to live elsewhere in Maine (males 32.4% v. females 41.3%). These differences were statistically significant.15 There were only minor differences in the proportions of those who expected to live outside of Maine.

Table 41 Preferred Place in which to Live After All Education is Completed

Gender

Preferred Location After All Education

Frequency

Percent of Both Grades

Percent of

Gender In Aroostook 138 14.4% 31.4% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 142 14.8% 32.4% Outside of Maine 159 16.6% 36.2%

Male

Total 439 45.9% 100.0% In Aroostook 121 12.6% 23.4% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 214 22.4% 41.3% Outside of Maine 183 19.1% 35.3%

Female

Total 518 54.1% 100.0% Note: Frequency Missing = 48 There are also differences in Table 42, which shows expectations about returning to Aroostook County by gender. The proportions of both males and females who said they will find a way to return to Aroostook are about the same (21.0% v. 21.7%), but females are more likely to say they will not return to Aroostook than males (25.9% v. 19.4%). These differences are weakly significant.16

Table 42 Expectations about Returning to Aroostook by Gender

Gender

Returning to Aroostook Frequency

Percent of Both Genders

Percent of

Gender Will find a way to return 65 9.2% 21.0% Would like to return, but not in foreseeable future 184 26.1% 59.6% Do not wish or expect to return 60 8.5% 19.4%

Male

Total 309 43.8% 100.0% Will find a way to return 86 12.2% 21.7% Would like to return, but not in foreseeable future 208 29.5% 52.4% Do not wish or expect to return 103 14.6% 25.9%

Female

Total 397 56.2% 100.0% Note: Frequency Missing = 299

Table 43 shows that males are more likely to prefer rural areas than females by 47% to 37%, while females are more likely to prefer small cities as a place to live by a similar ratio. Again these differences are statistically significant17, although the differences between preferences for large urban places are small.

15 Chi square p=0.043 16 Chi square p=0.083 17 Chi square p=0.004

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Table 43 Preferred Type of Region in which to Live by Gender

Gender

Preferred Type of Region Frequency

Percent of Both Genders

Percent of

Gender A large city like Boston 72 7.5% 16.1% A small city like Portland 166 17.2% 37.1% A rural area like Aroostook 209 21.7% 46.8% Male

Total 447 46.3% 100.0% A large city like Boston 89 9.2% 17.2% A small city like Portland 240 24.9% 46.3% A rural area like Aroostook 189 19.6% 36.5% Female

Total 518 53.7% 100.0% Respondents were asked about what factors influenced their preferences for living outside of Aroostook County after high school. The respondents were asked to rate their level of agreement/disagreement with six factors using on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 was strongly disagree and 5 was strongly agree. Table 44 presents the proportion of respondents who agreed or strongly agreed that a factor relating to living outside of Aroostook was important for them, along with the mean and standard deviation of responses on the 1-5 scale.

Table 44 Factors Affecting Decisions to Leave Aroostook After High School Reasons for Leaving

Aroostook Percent Agreeing or Strongly Agreeing Mean Standard

Deviation Live in a different location 76.8% 4.08 1.08 Be closer to family/friends 29.0% 2.96 1.08 Attend school 64.3% 3.81 1.28 Find more job opportunities 87.5% 4.46 0.84 Warmer weather 48.8% 3.44 1.21 Quality of life 26.3% 2.90 1.18

Two factors stand out as being most important: the desire to live in a different location

and the expectation that more job opportunities will be available outside the County. These factors have the largest percentage in agreement, the largest mean score, and smallest standard deviation (i.e., variability in responses). The desire to be closer to family/friends, to find a place with a better quality of life, and to live in a warmer climate, are all mentioned by less than half of respondents.

Table 45 shows that finding more job opportunities and a better quality of life were

equally important to both genders. However, there are differences between males and females on some of the other variables. Females show a statistically-significant stronger preference to live in a different location, to be closer to family/friends, to attend post-secondary school, and to look for warmer weather.

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Table 45 Mean Ratings of Factors Affecting Decisions to Leave Aroostook After High School by Gender

Reasons for Leaving Aroostook Gender Frequency Mean t-test p Male 445 3.9

Live in a different location Female 526 4.2

<0.001

Male 442 2.9 Be closer to family/friends

Female 523 3.0 0.023

Male 444 3.7 Attend school

Female 525 3.9 0.020

Male 444 4.4 Find more job opportunities

Female 525 4.5 0.267

Male 441 3.2 Warmer weather

Female 526 3.7 <0.001

Male 441 2.8 Quality of life

Female 523 2.9 0.190

Two other factors that influence the choice of preferred location are the length of time someone has lived in Aroostook and the birthplace of their parents. Table 46 shows the average length of time that respondents have lived in Aroostook County for the entire sample and by their stated preference for location after high school. Those who planned to be in Maine, whether Aroostook County or not, averaged 16 years in the County, while those who indicated that they expected to be out of state have lived in the County for only 13.2 years.

Table 46 Average Length of Time Lived in Aroostook by Desired Location After High School

Desired Location After High School Frequency Mean Standard Deviation

In Aroostook 200 16.0 3.7 In Maine, but not in Aroostook 273 16.0 3.3 Outside of Maine 219 13.2 5.8 Total 692 15.1 4.6

There is also an influence based upon where a student’s parents were born, a proxy for “nativeness”. Table 47 compares the responses to a question about the desired location of students after high school with the birthplace of their parents. If neither parent was born in Aroostook, the chances are that the student hopes to be outside of Maine after high school. If either or both parents were born in Aroostook, the chances are the student hopes to be in Maine, though the proportion of students who plan to be in Aroostook or elsewhere in Maine is not greatly affected by parental birth location. Together, Table 46 and Table 47 suggest that students who are long-term residents with family connections to Aroostook are more likely to at least stay in Maine, while more recently arrived residents (whether students or parents) are more likely to leave Maine.

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Table 47 Desired Location After High School by Birthplace of Parents Parents Born in

Aroostook Desired Location After High

School FrequencyPercent of Total

Percent by Birthplace of Parents

In Aroostook 108 16.2% 32.8% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 142 21.3% 43.2% Outside of Maine 79 11.8% 24.0%

Both

Total 329 49.3% 100.0% In Aroostook 29 4.4% 29.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 46 6.9% 46.0% Outside of Maine 25 3.8% 25.0%

Father only

Total 100 15.1% 100.0% In Aroostook 24 3.6% 28.6% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 31 4.7% 36.9% Outside of Maine 29 4.4% 34.5%

Mother only

Total 84 12.7% 100.0% In Aroostook 27 4.1% 18.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 46 6.9% 30.7% Outside of Maine 77 11.5% 51.3%

Neither

Total 150 22.5% 100.0% In Aroostook 2 0.3% 50.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 0 0.0% 0.0% Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 50.0%

Don’t know

Total 4 0.6% 100.0% Total 663 100.0% -

4.2 Locational Preferences: Working After High School

As indicated in the response to the question about plans after high school, a relatively small percentage (9.6%) of the respondents desire to go to work right after high school. Of these, 40% reported that they did not have a job lined up at the time of the survey, while among those who did have a job lined up, two thirds indicated it was a full-time job. Seventy-two percent of those who indicated where the job was indicated that the job was in Aroostook County, with 24% indicating that the job was Outside of Maine.18 Males were more than twice as likely as females (70% to 30%) to indicate they will take a job right after high school, and almost half of the males indicated that they had a full-time job lined up.

Respondents who were not going to continue their education were asked to indicate the reasons for this decision. Table 48 shows the “most significant” reason as designated by each respondent and the number of times each reason was checked as a factor. “Wanting or needing to work to support myself” received the most responses as the top reason not to go to school, while “needing to take a break from school” received the most total responses. “Taking a break from school” and “Can always continue my education in the future” together were mentioned by a third of respondents, suggesting that they may return to post-secondary education at a later date.

18 Respondents may have included the military in this response.

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Table 48 Reasons for Not Continuing Education Immediately After High School

Mentioned as Top

Reason Mentioned

Reasons for Not Continuing Education FrequencyPercent of Total Frequency

Percent of Total

Joining the military 8 10.4% 13 4.7% Grades are too low 1 1.3% 10 3.6% Want to travel 2 2.6% 19 6.8% Need a break from school 11 14.3% 59 21.2% Want/need to work to support myself 19 24.7% 56 20.1% Can't afford to continue education 6 7.8% 24 8.6% Plan to get married/start a family 3 3.9% 13 4.7% Can always continue education in the future 3 3.9% 36 12.9% Don't need more education for kind of job I want 4 5.2% 10 3.6% Unsure of plans/goals 15 19.5% 32 11.5% Other 5 6.5% 6 2.2% Total 77 100.0% 278 100.0%

Again, there are some important differences between males and females, although the

number of respondents who indicated that they were going for employment after high school was too small to draw any statistically meaningful conclusions. The differences between males and females are shown in Table 49. Only males indicated that they will be joining the military. Males are more likely to mention “needing a break from school”, “wanting/needing to support myself”, and “planning to start a family”. They are also more likely to say that they can continue their education in the future and that they don’t need education for the kind of job they want.

Table 49 Reasons for Not Continuing Education Immediately After High School by Gender

Male Female

Reasons for Not Continuing Education Frequency

Percent of All

Mentioners Frequency

Percent of All

MentionersJoining the military 13 100.0% 0 0.0% Grades are too low 6 60.0% 4 40.0% Want to travel 9 47.4% 10 52.6% Need a break from school 41 69.5% 18 30.5% Want/need to work to support myself 37 66.1% 19 33.9% Can't afford to continue education 13 54.2% 11 45.8% Plan to get married/start a family 10 76.9% 3 23.1% Can always continue education in the future 23 63.9% 13 36.1% Don't need more education for kind of job I want 7 70.0% 3 30.0% Unsure of plans/goals 16 50.0% 16 50.0% Other 3 50.0% 3 50.0%

The occupational plans of those responding that they will seek employment after high school rather than continuing their education are examined later in Section 4.4 on the influence of occupational choices on location choices.

37

4.3 Locational Preferences: Going on to Post-Secondary Education

As stated earlier, the vast majority of high school students responding to the survey

indicated that they plan to continue on with their education after graduating from high school. Also, these survey data indicate that the choices of where to attend school are likely to be highly influential on choices of where to live beyond college. To explore the college choice process, several factors are examined: the expectations about what degrees will be pursued, where respondents said that they will attend colleges (primarily for seniors), what colleges they have visited, and what factors are influencing their choice of college.

Given the high interest in going on for post-secondary education, it is important to

explore the types of higher education the respondents expect to undertake. Table 50 shows the responses to a question about the highest degree the respondent expects to earn. The largest percentage hopes to obtain a bachelor’s degree, with the second highest expecting to obtain a graduate degree. Together, this would imply that almost 70% of high school juniors and seniors in Aroostook expect to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher. Twelve percent expect to obtain a community college degree. These responses suggest an expectation of educational attainment far in excess of the existing levels of educational attainment in either Aroostook County or Maine. In 2000, Aroostook County had 15% of its population with a bachelor’s degree or higher, while Maine had 23%.19

Table 50 Expectations of Highest Degree to be Earned

Highest Degree Planned Frequency Percent High school diploma 26 2.7% Training program 51 5.3% Associate’s degree (2 years) 114 11.9% Bachelor’s degree (4 years) 405 42.2% Graduate degree 262 27.3% Other 37 3.8% Undecided 65 6.8% Total 960 100.0%

Note: Frequency Missing = 45 Again, as indicated in Table 51, there are differences between males and females, with a higher proportion of females expecting to obtain bachelor’s and graduate degrees and a higher proportion of males expecting to earn a high school diploma or an associate’s degrees. These differences are statistically significant.20

19 Source: Census 20 Chi square p=0.002

38

Table 51 Expectations of Highest Degree to Be Earned by Gender

Gender Highest Degree Planned Frequency Percent of Both Genders

Percent of Gender

High school diploma 18 1.9% 4.1% Training program 34 3.5% 7.7% Associate’s degree (2 years) 62 6.5% 14.0% Bachelor’s degree (4 years) 175 18.2% 39.6% Graduate degree 108 11.3% 24.4% Other 17 1.8% 3.9% Undecided 28 2.9% 6.3%

Male

Total 442 46.1% 100.0% High school diploma 8 0.8% 1.5% Training program 17 1.8% 3.3% Associate’s degree (2 years) 52 5.4% 10.0% Bachelor’s degree (4 years) 230 24.0% 44.4% Graduate degree 154 16.0% 29.7% Other 20 2.1% 3.9% Undecided 37 3.9% 7.1%

Female

Total 518 54.0% 100.0%

Ninety-one percent of senior respondents indicated that they have already committed to a specific college or other post-secondary educational institution. Nineteen percent of juniors also reported that they are committed to a particular educational institution. These responses from juniors are presumed to mean that they are certain about which school they will attend (all things equal). The geographic distribution of those institutions chosen by all upperclassmen is shown in Table 52. The largest proportion of students indicated they have chosen one of the three post-secondary institutions in Aroostook County. Of those who indicated they will attend in Aroostook, 40% have indicated they will go to NMCC, and the balance to UMPI (33%) or UMFK (28%).

Table 52 Location of Chosen Post-Secondary Educational Institution

Location of Institution Frequency Percent In Aroostook 166 37.6% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 149 33.8% Outside of Maine 126 28.6%

Table 52 results can be compared with the stated preferences discussed above in Table 32, where only 24.0% indicated that they would go to college in Aroostook. The differences between the two sets of responses are explained by the actual questions asked. The responses in Table 33 are for a question that asked about plans “if there were no barriers in your way”, while the responses in Table 52 are based on where students actually plan to attend. In Table 34, only 23.2% of juniors indicated they wish to go college in Aroostook, while 34% of seniors indicated they wish to do the same. This appears to imply that the Aroostook post-secondary institutions become more attractive, and perhaps more realistic, for seniors. At the same time, 62.4% of Aroostook high school students going on to college say they will do so outside the County, with a slightly higher proportion (33.8% v. 28.6%) going in

39

Maine. The largest proportion (63%) plan to go to a University of Maine System campus, with nearly half indicating that they will be going to the University of Maine. Nine percent indicate they will go to a campus of the Maine Community College System, with the balance (21%) going to another Maine School. The most commonly mentioned are Husson College, Thomas College, and Pierre’s School of Cosmetology.21 Table 53 examines the reasons that students gave for continuing their education immediately after high school. It shows the number of respondents who indicated that a given reason was selected as the most important reason and the mean and standard deviation of the rating on a 1-5 scale, where 1 indicates strong disagreement and 5 indicates strong agreement. Job and income related factors are the most frequently cited as the most important. “Being able to get a better job”, “Being able to get more money”, and “Receiving training for a specific career” accounted for nearly two thirds (64.0%) of the responses. Also ranking high (15.7%) was a desire to “learn more about things that interest me”. An analysis of the stated reasons for going to college by location of institution chosen indicated that there are no significant differences between respondents on the reasons given based on the location of their chosen college.

Table 53 Reasons for Going to College Immediately After High School Mentioned as Top

Reason Reasons for Going to College Frequency Percent Mean

Standard Deviation

Could not find job without a college education 64 8.2% 3.5 1.2 Will be able to get a better job 251 32.0% 4.7 0.6 Parents wanted me to go 10 1.3% 3.9 0.9 Will gain a general education and appreciation of ideas 32 4.1% 4.1 0.7 Nothing better to do 5 0.6% 2.5 1.1 Will be able to make more money 142 18.2% 4.5 0.7 Will learn more about things that interest me 123 15.7% 4.4 0.7 Will get training for a specific career 108 13.8% 4.5 0.6 Mentor/role model encouraged me to go 5 0.6% 3.2 1.1 Will make me a more cultured person 19 2.4% 3.8 1.0 Other 17 2.2% 4.5 0.9

While there were no differences in the reasons for going on to college based on its location, Table 54 shows that there were differences in the factors that influence which college is chosen. Aroostook campuses have clear advantages in affordability and location and an advantage for those looking for a small campus. However, Aroostook schools are at a slight disadvantage (or have no advantage) for those students for whom academic programs and quality are important, and a definite disadvantage for those for whom a large school or athletic/extracurricular activities are a consideration. 21 Pierre’s has five campuses in Maine, including one in Caribou. Respondents did not indicate which campus they would attend. If all attend the Caribou campus, the proportion of students attending in Aroostook would increase to 39%.

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Table 54 Reasons for Choosing College Frequency of Selection

Reasons for Selecting Chosen Institution

In Aroostook

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Outside of Maine

Academic program and quality 100 123 100 Athletic/extracurricular activities 12 33 29 Affordability 120 77 33 Location 114 106 64 Large size 0 28 64 Small size 87 48 24

Note: Multiple Responses Permitted

4.4 Influence of Occupational Plans on Location Choices

It is clear that where Aroostook high school juniors and seniors will choose to live and

work is connected to their expectations about education, and these, in turn, are connected to their expectations about the kind of work they will do. The high school survey asked students to specify the occupation that they hoped to pursue after completing all of their education. These open-ended responses were then coded to match as closely as possible with the U.S. Department of Labor Standard Occupational Codes22.

Table 55 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations

Expected Occupation Frequency Percent Management 39 4.7% Business and Financial Operations 42 5.1% Computer and Mathematical 27 3.3% Architecture and Engineering 54 6.6% Life, Physical, and Social Science 55 6.7% Community and Social Services 20 2.4% Legal 9 1.1% Education, Training, and Library 99 12.0% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 69 8.4% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 175 21.2% Healthcare Support 12 1.5% Protective Service 46 5.6% Food Preparation and Serving Related 8 1.0% Personal Care and Service 33 4.0% Sales and Related 11 1.3% Office and Administrative Support 27 3.3% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 14 1.7% Construction and Extraction 18 2.2% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 38 4.6% Production 12 1.5% Transportation and Material Moving 7 0.9% Military Specific 9 1.1%

Note: Frequency Missing = 181

22 See www.bls.gov/soc

41

As seen in Table 55, the most commonly-cited occupations are in the healthcare field, followed by education, training and library occupations. The distribution of expected occupations is driven in large part by gender differences as shown in Table 56, which splits the data in Table 55 by gender. In Table 56, each occupation group is shown with the dominant gender indicated in shaded cells. The healthcare and education occupations are overwhelmingly chosen by females, while males are more likely to seek occupations in management (including business ownership), computer and mathematical occupations, protective service, and natural-resource-related occupations. It should be noted that females are also more likely to choose occupations in the sciences. The differences are statistically significant.23

Table 56 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations by Gender

Expected Occupation

Gender

Percent of Both Genders

Percent of Gender Frequency

Male 23 2.8% 60.5% Management Female 15 1.9% 39.5%

Male 18 2.2% 42.9% Business and Financial Operations

Female 24 3.0% 57.1% Male 23 2.8% 85.2%

Computer and Mathematical Female 4 0.5% 14.8% Male 46 5.7% 86.8%

Architecture and Engineering Female 7 0.9% 13.2% Male 14 1.7% 25.5%

Life, Physical, and Social Science Female 41 5.1% 74.6%

Male 1 0.1% 5.0% Community and Social Services

Female 19 2.4% 95.0% Male 3 0.4% 33.3%

Legal Female 6 0.7% 66.7%

Male 22 2.7% 22.9% Education, Training, and Library

Female 74 9.2% 77.1% Male 28 3.5% 41.2%

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Female 40 4.9% 58.8%

Male 31 3.8% 17.9% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Female 142 17.6% 82.1% Male 0 0.0% 0.0%

Healthcare Support Female 12 1.5% 100.0%

Male 38 4.7% 86.4% Protective Service Female 6 0.7% 13.6%

Male 5 0.6% 62.5% Food Preparation and Serving Related Female 3 0.4% 37.5%

Male 7 0.9% 22.6% Personal Care and Service

Female 24 3.0% 77.4% Male 6 0.7% 66.7%

Sales and Related Female 3 0.4% 33.3% Male 6 0.7% 22.2%

Office and Administrative Support Female 21 2.6% 77.8%

23 Chi square p=<0.001

42

Table 56 (Continued)

Expected Occupation

Gender

Frequency

Percent of Both Genders

Percent of Gender

Male 13 1.6% 92.9% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Female 1 0.1% 7.1%

Male 16 2.0% 88.9% Construction and Extraction Female 2 0.3% 11.1%

Male 37 4.6% 97.4% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Female 1 0.1% 2.6%

Male 11 1.4% 100.0% Production Female 0 0.0% 0.0%

Male 5 0.6% 71.4% Transportation and Material Moving Female 2 0.3% 28.6% Military Specific Male 9 1.1% 100.0%

Table 57 examines the expected occupation in conjunction with the desired location

after completing all education. Note that the dominant desired location for each desired occupation is shaded. The occupations that students expect to pursue in Aroostook County include computer and mathematical, production, construction, natural resources, office and administrative support, education, community and social service, and protective services. The most interesting choice is “computer and mathematical occupations”. Most of those who provided this response listed “computer technician” as their chosen occupation.

Table 57 shows that occupations attracting students outside of Aroostook County

include the professions and sciences, health care, arts and entertainment, and management/business. The healthcare, management, and business occupations are the ones most likely to be pursued in Maine, but not in Aroostook, while the professions, sciences, and arts and entertainment are most likely to be pursued outside of Maine. This is consistent with the occupations reported by youth who migrated in the Census data, as discussed earlier in Section 2.

Table 57 Occupational Codes for Expected Occupations by Desired Location

Expected Occupation Desired Location Frequency

Percent of Total

Percent of

Desired Location

In Aroostook 8 1.4% 29.6% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 15 2.6% 55.6% Management Outside of Maine 4 0.7% 14.8% In Aroostook 6 1.0% 20.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 14 2.4% 46.7% Business and Financial Operations Outside of Maine 10 1.7% 33.3% In Aroostook 8 1.4% 38.1% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 6 1.0% 28.6% Computer and Mathematical Outside of Maine 7 1.2% 33.3% In Aroostook 2 0.3% 5.7% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 14 2.4% 40.0% Architecture and Engineering Outside of Maine 19 3.3% 54.3%

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Table 57 (Continued)

Expected Occupation Desired Location Frequency

Percent of Total

Percent of

Desired Location

In Aroostook 3 0.5% 7.3% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 19 3.3% 46.3% Life, Physical, and Social Science Outside of Maine 19 3.3% 46.3% In Aroostook 8 1.4% 57.1% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 6 1.0% 42.9% Community and Social Services Outside of Maine 0 0.0% 0.0% In Aroostook 1 0.2% 20.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.3% 40.0% Legal Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 40.0% In Aroostook 32 5.5% 43.8% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 29 5.0% 39.7% Education, Training, and Library Outside of Maine 12 2.1% 16.4% In Aroostook 9 1.5% 17.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 16 2.7% 30.2% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and

Media Outside of Maine 28 4.8% 52.8% In Aroostook 29 5.0% 21.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 74 12.7% 53.6% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Outside of Maine 35 6.0% 25.4% In Aroostook 0 0.0% 0.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 6 1.0% 85.7% Healthcare Support Outside of Maine 1 0.2% 14.3% In Aroostook 19 3.3% 65.5% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 8 1.4% 27.6% Protective Service Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 6.9% In Aroostook 1 0.2% 14.3% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.3% 28.6% Food Preparation and Serving Related Outside of Maine 4 0.7% 57.1% In Aroostook 7 1.2% 33.3% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 6 1.0% 28.6%

Personal Care and Service Outside of Maine 8 1.4% 38.1% In Aroostook 3 0.5% 50.0% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.2% 16.7% Sales and Related Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 33.3% In Aroostook 6 1.0% 46.2% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 5 0.9% 38.5% Office and Administrative Support Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 15.4% In Aroostook 8 1.4% 88.9% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.2% 11.1% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Outside of Maine 0 0.0% 0.0% In Aroostook 6 1.0% 54.6% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 5 0.9% 45.5% Construction and Extraction Outside of Maine 0 0.0% 0.0% In Aroostook 10 1.7% 41.7% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 3 0.5% 12.5% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Outside of Maine 11 1.9% 45.8%

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Table 57 (Continued)

Expected Occupation Desired Location Frequency

Percent of Total

Percent of

Desired Location

In Aroostook 5 0.9% 55.6% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.2% 11.1% Production Outside of Maine 3 0.5% 33.3% In Aroostook 1 0.2% 33.3% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 0 0.0% 0.0% Transportation and Material Moving Outside of Maine 2 0.3% 66.7% In Aroostook 2 0.3% 22.2% In Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.2% 11.1% Military Specific Outside of Maine 6 1.0% 66.7%

4.5 Possible Responses to Youth Out-migration

Short of fundamental alteration in economic circumstances, two questions arise in the search for ways to retain youth in Aroostook County: Who can influence young people in their choices about where to live and what to do? What kind of information and/or activities would affect young people’s decisions about locations? The responses to questions concerning these two issues are discussed here.

Table 58 shows responses to a question about people who “helped shape current preferences about where to live and work after you have completed high school”. Multiple responses are permitted, and respondents were asked to identify the “most influential” people. Table 58 shows the frequency with which each group was identified as the “top influence” as well as the total number of times each was mentioned by respondents.

Table 58 Sources of Influence on Location Decision

Mentioned as Top Influence Mentioned

Sources of Influence Frequency Percent of

Total Frequency Percent of

Total Parents 344 40.4% 772 21.6% Teachers 21 2.5% 313 8.8% Friends 109 12.8% 709 19.9% Coaches 2 0.2% 69 1.9% Military 9 1.1% 36 1.0% Internet 21 2.5% 204 5.7% Colleges 109 12.8% 529 14.8% Local businesses 11 1.3% 142 4.0% Relatives (other than parents) 61 7.2% 456 12.8% School counselors 5 0.6% 85 2.4% TV/movies 15 1.8% 183 5.1% Vocational/technical center staff 8 0.9% 73 2.0% Total 715 100.0% 3,571 100.0%

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The most frequently-mentioned source of influence in both total mentions and identification as the top influence were parents. Parents were mentioned by 22% of those who responded and by 40% of those who identified the “top influence”. Friends were mentioned by almost as many respondents (20%), but by far fewer as the top influence (13%). College information is also clearly important; it is the third most frequently mentioned source of information in both total and “top” categories.

It is also worth noting who is not mentioned as a significant source of information.

Teachers are mentioned by fewer than 9% of respondents and by fewer than 3% as the top influence. School counselors are mentioned by even fewer (2% of total mentions and 1% as “top influence”. In fact, the Internet and TV/movies are more frequently mentioned as influencing locational choices than school counselors.

Listing the sources of influence is one analytic perspective. Another is to compare the

sources of influence with the actual location preferences. This is done in Table 59. In this table, the percent of those who mentioned a particular source are shown for each of the choices of “planned location”. For example, for those who mentioned parents as a source influence, 52% indicated they will be in Aroostook; 28% indicated they will be in Maine but not in Aroostook; and 20% indicated they will be outside of Maine. Also shown is the probability (p-value) for the chi square test; a value less than .05 indicates that the association between the number of mentions of a source and their planned location is statistically significant.

Table 59 Sources of Influence on Location Decision by Location Preference

Distributions of Source Mentions

Source of Influence In

Aroostook

In Maine, but not in Aroostook

Outside of Maine

Chi square p-value

Parents 51.5% 28.5% 20.0% 0.002 Teachers 47.6% 30.4% 22.0% 0.573 Friends 51.6% 27.8% 20.6% 0.053 Coaches 66.7% 17.4% 15.9% 0.012 Military 44.4% 11.1% 44.4% 0.023 Internet 45.6% 23.0% 31.4% 0.002 Colleges 42.9% 30.4% 26.7% <0.0001 Local businesses 62.0% 21.8% 16.2% 0.005 Relatives (other than parents) 50.2% 28.7% 21.1% 0.651 School counselors 48.2% 31.7% 20.0% 0.707 TV/movies 39.9% 28.9% 31.2% 0.003 Vocational/technical center staff 65.7% 21.9% 12.3% 0.012

Parents, friends, coaches, local businesses, and vocational/technical center staff are the

most frequently mentioned by those whose plans are to stay in Aroostook. All of these showed a statistically significant relationship. There are relatively small differences among those who indicated they plan to be in Maine, but not in Aroostook, except for those who mentioned the military (not surprising) and coaches. A somewhat similar pattern holds for those who plan to be outside of Maine, with some exceptions. The Internet and TV/movies are most frequently cited for those who will leave Maine (again except for the military), and

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these results are statistically significant. Teachers, school counselors, and relatives (other than parents) all show statistically insignificant relationships with students’ locational preferences.

Table 60 shows the responses to questions relating to the kind of information and/or programs that might be helpful in deciding to stay in or return to Aroostook County. Questions of this general nature were asked of all respondents, of those who plan to work right after high school, and of those who will immediately go on to higher education. Table 60 shows the frequencies of responses, the mean and the standard deviations of scores on 1-5 scale of strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (5). The table also shows the number and percentage of respondents who indicated “agree” or “strongly agree”.

Table 60 Effectiveness Ratings of Programs to Influence Youth Migration Decisions in Aroostook

Agree or Strongly Agree

Respondent Group

Information/Programs that Could Influence Migration

Decisions Freq. MeanStd. Dev. Freq. Percent

More information about job opportunities 591 3.1 1.2 237 40.1% Assistance programs to find job in Aroostook 591 2.9 1.1 180 30.5% Assistance to start own business 591 2.9 1.1 172 29.1% Student loan forgiveness for working in Aroostook 591 3.2 1.2 237 40.1% Housing assistance 590 2.9 1.1 175 29.7% More cultural, community, and recreational activities 589 3.7 1.2 375 63.7%

All respondents

Other help to live in Aroostook 55 4.7 0.8 48 87.3% More information about jobs in Aroostook 31 3.2 1.1 12 38.7% Career and job placement information in high school 30 3.1 1.2 12 40.0% Assistance starting own business 30 3.1 1.1 9 30.0% Emphasis in high school in preparing for Aroostook jobs 30 3.0 1.0 9 30.0% More financial aid 30 3.1 1.3 11 36.7% Housing assistance 30 3.1 1.2 10 33.3%

Respondents going to work right after high school

More cultural, community, and recreational activities 31 3.4 1.2 15 48.4% More information about college 553 2.6 1.1 120 21.7% More information about post-college jobs 552 2.9 1.2 206 37.3% More emphasis in high school on continuing education 554 2.6 1.1 110 19.9% More financial aid 553 2.8 1.2 168 30.4% Attractive loan repayment to attend college in Aroostook 551 2.8 1.2 159 28.9% Emphasis on job placement in Aroostook colleges 553 3.0 1.2 203 36.7% Emphasis on internships/practical experience 550 3.0 1.2 196 35.6% Housing assistance 552 2.7 1.1 107 19.4%

Respondents immediately going on for post-secondary education

More cultural, community, and recreational activities 552 3.4 1.3 260 47.1% The first thing to notice about the responses to these questions is that only two

questions received even a majority of “agree” or “strongly agree” responses, and most of the mean scores hover around the value of “3”, signifying “neither agree nor disagree”. This indicates that students do not believe that any one of the listed information items is likely to be particularly influential in their location decisions, with the possible exception of more cultural, community, and recreational activities, which received the strongest responses among all three groups. This indicates that a greater array of such activities might be helpful in retaining or

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persuading youth to return. Some form of educational loan repayment program for those who stay in Aroostook also received moderately high scores along with information about job opportunities. Information about colleges and continuing education does not appear to be particularly important, nor is housing a large issue.

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5. College Students and Migration The survey of college students was administered at the University of Maine Presque Isle (UMPI), the University of Maine Fort Kent (UMFK), and Northern Maine Community College (NMCC) in September and October of 2004. The survey was administered to juniors and seniors at the University of Maine System (UMS) campuses and to all degree-program students at NMCC.

5.1 The Survey and Respondent Details

A total of 359 usable surveys were returned from the three campuses. Table 61 shows the distribution of the surveys by institution and the breakdown for each by male and female respondents. Nearly 55% of the respondents were from NMCC, due to the fact that it was possible to distribute the survey forms to a much larger proportion of the student body at NMCC than at the other two campuses. Because the number of respondents for the two UMS campuses is rather small, nearly all of the analyses of survey results combines the responses for UMPI and UMFK.

Table 61 Distribution of College Survey Respondents by Institution and Gender

College Gender Frequency Percent Male 75 38.5% Female 120 61.5% NMCC

Total 195 100.0 % Male 23 47.9% Female 25 52.1% UMFK Total 48 100.0 % Male 45 39.8% Female 68 60.2% UMPI Total 113 100.0 % Male 68 42.2% Female 93 57.8%

University

Total Total 161 100.0 % Male 143 40.2% Female 213 59.8%

Total (NMCC + University)

Total 356 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 3

The breakdown by gender shows that nearly 60% of the respondents were women for the sample as a whole. Women comprised 62% of the NMCC sample and 58% of the University sample.

Table 62 shows the distribution of NMCC respondents and University respondents by

their expected date of graduation. About three quarters of the respondents expect to receive their degrees from their appropriate schools in 2005 or 2006.

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Table 62 Expected Graduation Date of College Survey Respondents

Institution

Graduation Date

Frequency Percent Before 2004 24 12.4 % 2004 14 7.3 % 2005 66 34.2 % 2006 82 42.5 % 2007 7 3.6 %

Community College

Total 193 100.0 % Before 2004 11 6.8 % 2004 14 8.6 % 2005 67 41.4 % 2006 59 36.4 % 2007 11 6.8 %

University

Total 162 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 4 The University campuses and NMCC offer an array of programs of study leading to both associates and bachelors degrees. While University of Maine System campuses offer both types of degrees, only three of the respondents from these two campuses were enrolled in associate’s degree programs. The overwhelming majority of associate’s degree candidates in the sample are at NMCC.

Table 63 Programs of Study by Institution

Major Institution Frequency Percent Automotive Trades Community College 5 1.4 % Biology University 2 0.6 %

Community College 58 16.7 % Business University 61 17.5 % Communications University 1 0.3 %

Community College 28 8.1 % Computer Fields University 3 0.9 % Construction Trades Community College 8 2.3 % Criminal Justice University 13 3.7 %

Community College 37 10.6 % Education University 15 4.3 % Environmental Studies University 1 0.3 % General Studies Community College 1 0.3 %

Community College 22 6.3 % Health Trades University 11 3.2 5

Community College 17 4.9 % Liberal Arts University 16 4.6 % Manufacturing Trades Community College 6 1.7 % Office Administration Community College 8 2.3 % Psychology University 18 5.2 % Recreation/Leisure University 4 1.2 % Social Work University 13 3.7 5

Note: Frequency Missing = 11

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Table 63 shows the breakdown of respondents by their course of study and the institution that they are attending. For purposes of analysis, programs were grouped into larger categories. For example, all business-related programs such as business management, accounting, accounting information systems, etc. were grouped as business programs. As Table 63 shows, business-related degree programs were the most popular among respondents, with just over one third (34.2%) enrolled in these programs. Next most popular was education, with about 15%, followed by liberal arts programs with about 10% and computer-related programs with about 9%.

Table 64 presents the distribution of respondents by their program of study and

gender. Where both men and women are enrolled in a program area, the predominant group is shown in gray. Women predominate in the fields of education, health, and social work. They also predominate in the business fields. The larger number of women in the liberal arts programs probably reflects the larger number of women enrolled in the university campuses overall. Men tend to predominate in the more technical fields, including computer related programs.

Table 64 Programs of Study by Gender

Major Gender Frequency Percent Male 4 1.2

Automotive Trades Female 1 0.3 Biology Female 2 0.6

Male 49 14.2 Business Female 69 20.0 Communications Female 1 0.3

Male 25 7.3 Computer Fields Female 6 1.7 Male 6 1.7

Construction Trades Female 2 0.6 Male 9 2.6

Criminal Justice Female 4 1.2 Male 14 4.1

Education Female 38 11.0 Environmental Studies Male 1 0.3 General Studies Male 1 0.3

Male 3 0.9 Health Trades Female 28 8.1

Male 14 4.1 Liberal Arts Female 19 5.5 Manufacturing Trades Male 6 1.7 Office Administration Female 8 2.3

Male 1 0.3 Psychology Female 17 4.9 Recreation/Leisure Male 4 1.2

Male 1 0.3 Social Work Female 12 3.5

Note: Frequency Missing = 14

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5.2 Plans for After College

The question of where the college students intend to live after they complete their

education can be examined from three perspectives. The first is their immediate plans, if those have been formed. Students may choose to go for further education, either in Aroostook or outside of Aroostook, or they may enter the job market directly. As with the high school survey, all responses to questions about immediate plans must be considered somewhat tentative. The location choices can also be examined in terms of their expectations about living in Aroostook County and their preferences for certain types of locations. Only 15% of respondents indicated that they have a job lined up after graduation. Just over half (55%) of those with jobs lined up are at NMCC, with the remainder at the University campuses. Ninety percent of the respondents indicate their job will be in Maine, and of these, 78% indicate their job will be in Aroostook County. Table 65 shows the fields of study for those with jobs lined up (i.e., labor force entrants). The majority (85%) of job entrants expect to be employed full time. Business is the most prevalent field for those entering the job market right away with education falling second. (Note that the job is not necessarily in their field of study.)

Table 65 Field of Study of Labor Force Entrants

Major Full Time or

Part Time Job Frequency Percent Automotive Trades FT 2 3.8 %

FT 18 34.0 % Business PT 2 3.8 %

Computer Fields FT 2 3.8 % Construction Trades FT 1 1.9 % Criminal Justice FT 3 5.7 %

FT 5 9.4 % Education PT 5 9.4 %

Health Trades FT 4 7.6 % Liberal Arts FT 3 5.7 % Manufacturing Trades FT 1 1.9 % Office Administration FT 1 1.9 %

FT 4 7.6 % Psychology PT 1 1.9 %

Social Work FT 1 1.9 % Note: Frequency Missing = 306 Over half (54.6%) of the respondents indicated that they intend to pursue additional higher education degrees (Table 66). These proportions are 54.2% and 55.1% for those attending NMCC and a UMS campus, respectively. Of those who indicated that they will pursue another degree, 38% indicated they plan to do so immediately, while another 39% indicated they will do so within a year of graduating from their current program. The remainder (23%) indicated they will postpone continuing their education for at least one year.

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Table 66 Intentions to Pursue Additional Degree by Institution

Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Community College University Total

88 71 159 55.4 % 44.7 % 45.4 % No 45.8 % 44.9 %

104 87 191 54.5 % 45.6 % 54.6 % Yes 54.2 % 55.1 %

192 158 350 Total 54.9 % 45.1 % 100.0 %

Note: Frequency Missing = 9 The vast majority (90%) of those who plan to seek another degree report that they will do so in Maine. This is primarily due to the large number of community college students in the sample, all but two of whom will go on for further education in Maine. University students are more likely to go out of state for their next degree, but about three quarters of them will still stay in Maine (Table 67).

Table 67 Location of Next College by Current Institution

Current Institution

Location of Next

College Frequency Percent ME 51 96% MI 1 2% TN 1 2%

Community College

Total 53 100 % FL 1 5% ME 16 76% NC 2 10% NY 1 5%

University

UK 1 5% Total 21 100 %

Of schools within Maine that students plan to attend, the most frequently mentioned is

UMPI, which is the intended destination for 25% of the NMCC students going on for further education. Interestingly, the same percentage of NMCC students indicated that their next degree will also be from NMCC. Husson College was the next most popular destination for NMCC students followed by the University of Maine. The University of Maine was the most popular destination for UMPI and UMFK students who indicated that they will go on to another degree, accounting for nearly half (46%) of the respondents.

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Table 68 Highest Degree Expected by Current Institution Current Institution Highest Degree Expected Frequency Percent

Associates degree 72 36.7 % Bachelors degree 67 34.2 % Graduate or professional degree 22 11.2 % Other 5 2.6 % Undecided 30 15.3 %

Community College

Total 196 100.0 % Associates degree 4 2.5 % Bachelors degree 62 39.0 % Graduate or professional degree 79 49.7 % Other 6 3.8 %

University

Undecided 8 5.0 % Total 159 100.0 %

Table 68 shows the expectations about the highest degree that respondents hope to

obtain by their current institution. About half (45.4%) of community college students indicated they expect to go on for a bachelors or a graduate degree, while somewhat more than one third indicated the associates degree is the highest degree that they hope to attain. From the perspective of migration, the one third of community college students who say they will go on for a bachelors degree are a key potential target for UMPI and UMFK; the data about where students are actually going (discussed earlier) indicate that this is very plausible. Among UMFK and UMPI students, a large number (nearly half) are expecting to go on to a graduate or professional degree, which means they will leave the County to do so. The extent to which such students will permanently leave Aroostook depends on their expected professions and their location preferences.

In the analysis of the high school survey (Table 51), it was apparent that girls tended to

have somewhat higher educational aspirations than boys. Table 69 shows that this trend continues among college students, although statistical significance cannot be tested with these data because of the imbalance between men and women in the college population. Women are less likely to stop at an associate’s degree. A larger percent of women indicated that they will seek bachelors and graduate degrees, and a smaller proportion of women are undecided.

Table 69 Highest Degree Expected by Gender

Gender Highest Degree Expected Frequency Percent Associates degree 32 22.7 % Bachelors degree 49 34.8 % Graduate or professional degree 36 25.5 % Other 7 5.0 % Undecided 17 12.1 %

Male

Total 141 100.0 % Associates degree 44 20.9 % Bachelors degree 79 37.4 % Graduate or professional degree 63 29.9 % Other 4 1.9 % Undecided 21 10.0 %

Female

Total 211 100.0 %

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5.3 Location Preferences versus Expectations

As with the high school survey, location preferences were explored with questions about where students expect to live after their education is completed and the type of location in which they prefer to live. These are not necessarily correlated; one may expect to live in a large city because of their chosen profession, but prefer to live in a rural area. This issue is explored in Table 70.

Table 70 Location Expectation by Location Preference

Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Expect to live in Aroostook

County

Expect to live in Maine, but not in

Aroostook

Expect to live outside of

Maine Total 0 1 35 36

0.0 % 2.8 % 97.2 % 10.4 % Prefer large city like Boston 0.0 % 0.8 % 36.5 %

2 80 45 127 1.6 % 63.0 % 35.4 % 36.8 %

Prefer small city like Portland 1.6 % 65.6 % 46.9 %

125 41 16 182 68.7 % 22.5 % 8.8 % 52.8 %

Prefer rural area like Aroostook 98.4 % 33.6 % 16.7 %

127 122 96 345 Total 36.8 % 35.4 % 27.8 % 100.0

% Note: Frequency Missing = 14

Although the expectations and preferences are not necessarily associated, it appears

that in the case of Aroostook college students they are. Students who prefer to live in a rural area like Aroostook expect to live there, while students who want to live in more urban areas expect to do so. The association between these expectations and preferences is statistically significant.24

Over half (52.8%) of the respondents indicated that they prefer to live in a rural area,

while a third indicate they prefer a small city. Over seventy percent (72.2%) of respondents expect to live in Maine; only 28% indicate they expect to live outside of Maine. In general, these expectations and preferences appear to be consistent with the actual behavior of migrants explored in the first two sections of this report. As Table 71 shows, these expectations of where University students will live tend more to favor leaving both Aroostook and the rest of Maine than those of NMCC students. Thirty-five percent of the University students expect to leave Maine while only 22% of the Community College students expect to do the same.

24 Chi square p<0.001

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Table 71 Location Expectations by College Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Live in Aroostook

County

Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook

Live outside

of Maine Total 74 74 42 190

39.0 % 39.0 % 22.1 % 54.3 % Community College

58.3 % 58.7 % 43.3 % 53 52 55 160

33.1 % 32.5 % 34.4 % 45.7 % University 41.7 % 41.3 % 56.7 %

127 126 97 350 Total 36.3 % 36.0 % 27.7 % 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 9

Location preferences by institution are shown in Table 72. Somewhat over half of

(57.5%) community college students prefer a rural area, while just under half (47.8%) of University students prefer a rural area. These are highly consistent with the preferences expressed by high school students. On the other hand, while the number of students in both Community College and University degree programs preferring a large city is small (only 10.2% of the sample), twice as many University students as Community College students express this preference.

Table 72 Location Preferences by Institution

Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Large city like

Boston

Small city like

Portland

Rural area like

Aroostook Total 13 69 111 193

6.7 % 35.8 % 57.5 % 54.5 % Community College

36.1 % 53.1 % 59.0 % 23 61 77 161

14.3 % 37.9 % 47.8 % 45.5 % University 63.9 % 46.9 % 41.0 %

36 130 188 354 Total 10.2 % 36.7 % 53.1 % 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 5

We can examine location expectations and preferences by the respondents’ fields of

study and by their expected occupations. Table 73 relates location expectations by major, while Table 74 shows location preferences by major (where there is a difference in the distribution, it is noted with gray shading). Given the small sample size, there are few apparent patterns. However, Aroostook is clearly both the preference and expectation of those majoring in business, education, health care, and social work. In Table 74, the location preferences for those not choosing rural areas strongly concentrate on small cities rather than large cities.

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Table 73 College Major by Location Expectation Major Location Expectation Frequency Percent

Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.3 % Automotive Trades Live outside of Maine 2 0.6 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.3 % Biology Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 % Live in Aroostook County 51 15.0 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 32 9.4 % Business Live outside of Maine 35 10.3 %

Communications Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 % Live in Aroostook County 6 1.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 17 5.0 % Computer Fields Live outside of Maine 6 1.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 5 1.5 % Construction Trades Live outside of Maine 3 0.9 % Live in Aroostook County 4 1.2 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 4 1.2 % Criminal Justice Live outside of Maine 5 1.5 % Live in Aroostook County 20 5.9 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 17 5.0 % Education Live outside of Maine 13 3.8 %

Environmental Studies Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 % General Studies Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 %

Live in Aroostook County 16 4.7 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 10 2.9 % Health Trades Live outside of Maine 6 1.8 % Live in Aroostook County 8 2.4 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 15 4.4 % Liberal Arts Live outside of Maine 10 2.9 % Live in Aroostook County 3 0.9 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.3 % Manufacturing Trades Live outside of Maine 2 0.6 % Live in Aroostook County 3 0.9 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 3 0.9 % Office Administration Live outside of Maine 2 0.6 % Live in Aroostook County 3 0.9 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 8 2.4 % Psychology Live outside of Maine 7 2.1 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.6 % Recreation/Leisure Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 % Live in Aroostook County 7 2.1 % Social Work Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 6 1.8 %

Note: Frequency Missing = 16

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Table 74 College Major by Location Preference Major Location Preference Frequency Percent

Small city like Portland 3 0.9 % Automotive Trades Rural area like Aroostook 2 0.6 %

Biology Small city like Portland 2 0.6 % Large city like Boston 17 5.0 % Small city like Portland 37 10.8 % Business Rural area like Aroostook 62 18.1 %

Communications Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Large city like Boston 2 0.6 % Small city like Portland 16 4.7 % Computer Fields Rural area like Aroostook 13 3.8 % Small city like Portland 4 1.2 % Construction Trades Rural area like Aroostook 4 1.2 % Large city like Boston 2 0.6 % Small city like Portland 6 1.8 % Criminal Justice Rural area like Aroostook 5 1.5 % Large city like Boston 5 1.5 % Small city like Portland 15 4.4 % Education Rural area like Aroostook 32 9.3 %

Environmental Studies Rural area like Aroostook 1 0.3 % General Studies Rural area like Aroostook 1 0.3 %

Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 7 2.0 % Health Trades Rural area like Aroostook 24 7.0 % Large city like Boston 2 0.6 % Small city like Portland 20 5.8 % Liberal Arts Rural area like Aroostook 10 2.9 % Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Manufacturing Trades Rural area like Aroostook 5 1.5 % Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 3 0.9 % Office Administration Rural area like Aroostook 4 1.2 % Large city like Boston 4 1.2 % Small city like Portland 9 2.6 % Psychology Rural area like Aroostook 5 1.5 % Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Recreation/Leisure Rural area like Aroostook 2 0.6 % Small city like Portland 3 0.9 % Social Work Rural area like Aroostook 10 2.9 %

Note: Frequency Missing = 19

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Table 75 and Table 76 relate location expectations and preferences by major occupation grouping. Again, the sample size and responses do not permit firm conclusions, but there are some distinct patterns. Those selecting “management occupations” were more likely to expect to live in Aroostook, and even more likely to prefer rural areas. It should be noted that the coding of responses to the occupation question identified those who said they were interested in starting a business or “an entrepreneur” in “management occupations”. Though a small number, it is encouraging that those interested in starting business expect to do so in Aroostook.

Table 75 Location Expectation by Occupation Occupation Location Expectation Frequency Percent

Live in Aroostook County 19 6.6 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 12 4.1 % Management Occupations Live outside of Maine 16 5.5 % Live in Aroostook County 27 9.3 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 19 6.6 %

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Live outside of Maine 10 3.5 % Live in Aroostook County 2 0.7 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 5 1.7 %

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Live outside of Maine 5 1.7 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 5 1.7 % Architecture and Engineering

Occupations Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.3 %

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 % Live in Aroostook County 12 4.1 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 8 2.8 %

Community and Social Services Occupations

Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Live in Aroostook County 2 0.7 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.7 % Legal Occupations Live outside of Maine 5 1.7 % Live in Aroostook County 14 4.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 13 4.5 %

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

Live outside of Maine 9 3.1 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 4 1.4 % Arts, Design, Entertainment,

Sports, and Media Occupations Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Live in Aroostook County 8 2.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 13 4.5 %

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

Live outside of Maine 10 3.5 % Live in Aroostook County 3 1.0 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.7 % Protective Service Occupations Live outside of Maine 4 1.4 %

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 %

Live in Aroostook County 8 2.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.7 %

Personal Care and Service Occupations

Live outside of Maine 4 1.4 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 1 0.3 % Sales and Related Occupations Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 %

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Table 75 (Continued) Occupation Location Expectation Frequency Percent

Live in Aroostook County 6 2.1 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.7 %

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Live in Aroostook County 2 0.7 %

Live in Aroostook County 3 1.0 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 9 3.1 %

Construction and Extraction Occupations

Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook 2 0.7 %

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

Live outside of Maine 2 0.7 % Live in Aroostook County 1 0.3 % Production Occupations Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 %

Military Specific Occupations Live outside of Maine 1 0.3 % Note: Frequency Missing = 69

Other occupations associated with expecting and preferring to live in Aroostook include: business and financial occupations, education, health care, social services, and office support occupations. These are consistent with the data on college programs of study noted above. Legal occupations seem to be the clearest occupation for an out-of-state location, although the numbers are small. Interestingly, this same preference is observed for “protective service” occupations. Those seeking professional and technological occupations are likely to be elsewhere in Maine.

Table 76 Location Expectation by Occupation Occupation Type Location Preference Frequency Percent

Large city like Boston 5 1.7 % Small city like Portland 15 5.2 % Management Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 26 8.9 % Large city like Boston 4 1.4 % Small city like Portland 20 6.9 %

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 30 10.3 % Large city like Boston 3 1.0 % Small city like Portland 5 1.7 %

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 4 1.4 % Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 4 1.4 %

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 3 1.0 % Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Life, Physical, and Social

Science Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 2 0.7 % Large city like Boston 2 0.7 % Small city like Portland 5 1.7 %

Community and Social Services Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 15 5.2 % Large city like Boston 4 1.4 % Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Legal Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 3 1.0 %

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Table 76 (Continued) Occupation Type Location Preference Frequency Percent

Large city like Boston 2 0.7 % Small city like Portland 13 4.5 %

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 23 7.9 % Large city like Boston 2 0.7 % Small city like Portland 4 1.4 %

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

Large city like Boston 2 0.7 % Small city like Portland 13 4.5 % Healthcare Practitioners and

Technical Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 17 5.8 % Small city like Portland 5 1.7 % Protective Service Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 4 1.4 %

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 1 0.3 %

Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 4 1.4 %

Personal Care and Service Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 9 3.1 % Large city like Boston 2 0.7 % Sales and Related Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 1 0.3 % Large city like Boston 1 0.3 % Small city like Portland 2 0.7 %

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

Rural area like Aroostook 7 2.4 % Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 2 0.7 %

Small city like Portland 5 1.7 % Construction and Extraction Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 9 3.1 %

Small city like Portland 2 0.7 % Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 4 1.4 % Production Occupations Rural area like Aroostook 2 0.7 % Military Specific Occupations Small city like Portland 1 0.3 % Note: Frequency Missing =68 There are other correlates to location expectations. Table 77 shows the mean number

of years lived in Aroostook County by their expectation for where they will live. Similar to the results in the high school survey, the longer someone has lived in Aroostook County the more likely they are to expect to live in Aroostook after their education is complete. When preferences for in-Aroostook for out-of-Aroostook are examined, the differences in length of residence in Aroostook County are statistically significant.25 Results are similar with location preference.

25 t-test p<0.001

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Table 77 Years Lived in Aroostook County by Location Expectation

Location Expectation N Years Lived in Location Mean Std. Dev.

In Aroostook County 20.4 9.8 In Maine, but not Aroostook County 6.7 11.2 Live in Aroostook

County 127 Outside of Maine 5.5 9.6 In Aroostook County 15.9 9.8 In Maine, but not Aroostook County 8.3 10.5

Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook County

126 Outside of Maine 3.8 7.1 In Aroostook County 10.8 10.1 In Maine, but not Aroostook County 4.9 7.7 Live outside

of Maine 97 Outside of Maine 10.0 11.4

The relationships between gender and location preferences and expectations are shown

in Table 78 and Table 79. College men are slightly more likely to report a preference for living outside of Aroostook County then college women, but the differences are not large. The distribution of location expectations is approximately equal among men, with the largest number preferring a non-Aroostook Maine location. Women are more likely to say they will live in Aroostook County among the three choices.

Table 78 Location Preference by Gender

Gender Locational Preference Frequency Percent Large city like Boston 15 10.7 % Small city like Portland 53 37.9 % Rural area like Aroostook County 72 51.4 % Male

Total 140 100.0 % Large city like Boston 21 10.0 % Small city like Portland 77 36.5 % Rural area like Aroostook County 113 53.6 % Female

Total 211 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 8

Table 79 Location Expectation by Gender

Gender Location Expectation Frequency Percent Live in Aroostook County 46 32.4 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook County 53 37.3 % Live outside of Maine 43 30.3 % Male

Total 142 100.0 % Live in Aroostook County 80 38.8 % Live in Maine, but not in Aroostook County 73 35.4 % Live outside of Maine 53 25.7 % Female

Total 206 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 11

The high school responses tended to indicate that females were more likely to want to

live outside of Aroostook County (41.4% reported a preference for other Maine locations, while 35.3% reported a desire to live out of state). Among college women, the most common

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response was to live in Aroostook County (38.8% among college women, v. 23.4% among high school girls). The implication is that, for women at least, if they attend college in Aroostook County they are somewhat more likely to stay in Aroostook County. The same pattern does not appear to hold true for men; college men are slightly less likely to report that they expect to live outside of Maine than high school boys, but the differences are not great.

5.4 Perceptions of Living in Aroostook County

Another key issue involves the perceptions of college students about living in

Aroostook County or elsewhere. These are explored in Table 80 and Table 81, which show mean responses to a series of scale questions on factors affecting location preference. The scale ranged from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). A higher mean score indicates that the factor is cited as important by a larger number of respondents. Table 80 shows the responses of those who indicated they are likely to live in Aroostook County, while Table 81 shows the responses of those said that they will likely live outside of the County. The two tables are sorted from highest responses to lowest.

Table 80 Ratings of Factors Affecting Location Preferences: Likely to Live in Aroostook

Factors Affecting Location Preferences Mean Std. Dev. Live closer to family and friends 4.25 1.13 Prefer cost of living in Aroostook 3.95 1.08 Prefer recreation in Aroostook 3.81 1.10 Prefer culture in Aroostook 3.64 1.13 Prefer climate in Aroostook 3.31 1.29 Spouse/partner wants to live in Aroostook 3.18 1.37 Work for specific employer in Aroostook 3.11 1.22 Decided to attend school in Aroostook 2.95 1.15 Spouse/partner found employment in Aroostook 2.95 1.24 Need to pay loans 2.75 1.14 Spouse/partner going to school in Aroostook 2.38 1.03 Pay/benefits better in Aroostook 2.34 1.12 Career opportunities better in Aroostook 2.32 1.06

The responses for the two groups are, not surprisingly, opposite to one another. Living close to family and friends is the strongest attribute of living in Aroostook for those who indicate they will do so, and the least likely for those who indicate they will not do so. Those who expect to stay prefer the characteristics of Aroostook, including the cost of living, recreation, culture, and climate. Those who will leave are more likely to see greater opportunities for careers and pay if they are leaving and to prefer to see the recreational, culture, and similar characteristics elsewhere. These findings are in line with general expectations about youth preferences for locations. An analysis of these factors does not indicate any statistical differences between those attending NMCC and those attending the University campuses.

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Table 81 Ratings of Factors Affecting Location Preferences: Likely to Live Outside of Aroostook

Factors Affecting Location Preferences Mean Std Dev Career opportunities better elsewhere 4.40 0.83 Pay/benefits better elsewhere 4.31 0.91 Prefer culture elsewhere 3.88 1.02 Prefer climate elsewhere 3.68 1.14 Prefer recreation elsewhere 3.68 1.06 Need to pay loans 3.33 1.18 Live closer to family and friends 3.00 1.17 Decided to attend school elsewhere 2.98 1.17 Spouse/partner wants to live elsewhere 2.88 1.23 Prefer cost of living elsewhere 2.88 1.08 Work for specific employer elsewhere 2.83 1.08 Return to where I lived before 2.76 1.24 Spouse/partner found employment elsewhere 2.60 1.10 Spouse/partner going to school in Aroostook 2.53 1.11

5.5 Colleges as an Attraction to Living in Aroostook County

A student’s time in Aroostook County has been shown to be a correlate of their

ultimate location preferences, but what attracted students to attend the institutions of higher education in Maine? This is a particularly interesting question with respect to those who reside outside of Aroostook County but chose to attend one of the County’s institutions. Table 82 shows the mean responses to a series of scale questions (whose structure is similar to those noted above) separated by whether the respondent’s current legal residence is in or outside of Aroostook County. The responses are displayed from most important reason to least important.

The top three major attractions of the Aroostook institutions of higher education,

irrespective of the respondent’s location of residence, are affordability, the perception of good academic programs, and the perception that the schools are the right size. Factors such as convenient class times and commuting distance are more important for residents of Aroostook County, as might be expected. This is entirely consistent with the responses from the high school survey noted above, which listed the same attributes as the key to students choice of an Aroostook institution of higher education. Non-Aroostook residents are more likely to indicate the importance of a guidance counselor in their selection of schools. The other factors are about equally ranked between residents and non-residents.

The responses to the questions about the reasons for attending their current school may differ between NMCC and the University campuses. However, an analysis of the responses separated by the college attended does not show many significant differences. The strongest agreement is for responses to the questions about affordability, reputation, proximity, and the role of guidance counselors. Interestingly, respondents also agree that social and cultural life are important.

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Table 82 Ratings of Reasons for Attending Aroostook Institution by Current Residence of Students Current Residence N Reasons for Attending Aroostook Institution Mean Std. Dev.

Affordable 4.3 0.8 Good programs in my area 4.1 0.9 Right size 4.0 0.9 Within commuting distance 3.9 1.3 Convenient class times 3.6 1.0 Reputation 3.5 0.8 Near my job 3.4 1.3 Financial aid 3.4 1.2 Friend or spouse goes there 3.1 1.2 Attractive cultural/social life 3.1 1.0 Recommended by a teacher 2.4 1.1 Parents/Relatives alma mater 2.3 1.1

In Aroostook 279

Recommended by my guidance counselor 2.3 1.2 Affordable 4.1 0.9 Good programs in my area 4.1 0.9 Right size 4.0 1.0 Convenient class times 3.3 1.1 Reputation 3.2 0.9 Financial aid 3.1 1.2 Within commuting distance 2.9 1.5 Attractive cultural/social life 2.9 1.1 Friend or spouse goes there 2.7 1.4 Recommended by my guidance counselor 2.7 1.3 Near my job 2.6 1.3 Recommended by a teacher 2.3 1.0

Outside of Aroostook 80

Parents/Relatives alma mater 2.0 1.1

As noted in Section 2, which examined Census data, Maine does attract students and other young people from out of state, a factor which balances in part the out-migration of Maine youth. This also occurs with the higher education institutions of Aroostook County, which are attended by both non-Aroostook and non-Maine residents. These in-migrants represent a potential source of young people for Aroostook County. Table 83 and Table 84 explore the attitudes about living in Aroostook County among those college students who transferred to one of the Aroostook County colleges from a college outside of the County and those who list a legal residence outside of the County, respectively.

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Table 83 Assessment of Aroostook Characteristics for Transfer Students by Transfer Location

Transferred from: N Reasons for Transferring to Aroostook Institution Mean Std. Dev. Good programs in my area 4.1 0.9 Within commuting distance 4.1 1.1 Affordable 4.1 0.9 Right size 4.0 0.9 Reputation 3.7 0.8 Near my job 3.7 1.4 Convenient class times 3.5 1.0 Financial aid 3.0 1.4 Friend or spouse goes there 3.0 1.2 Attractive cultural/social life 3.0 1.1 Recommended by a teacher 2.3 1.2 Recommended by my guidance counselor 2.3 1.0

Aroostook college 29

Parents/Relatives alma mater 2.1 1.2 Affordable 4.2 1.0 Good programs in my area 4.2 0.8 Right size 3.9 1.2 Within commuting distance 3.4 1.3 Convenient class times 3.4 1.1 Reputation 3.3 0.8 Near my job 3.1 1.4 Financial aid 3.0 1.3 Attractive cultural/social life 2.9 1.0 Friend or spouse goes there 2.9 1.4 Recommended by my guidance counselor 2.5 1.3 Recommended by a teacher 2.3 1.0

Non-Aroostook college 55

Parents/Relatives alma mater 2.2 1.2

Eighty four respondents (24%) of the respondents to the survey had transferred to

their current college from another college. Of these, 55 or 66% transferred from a non-Aroostook County college. The question is whether those who transferred from outside the County had different views of the Aroostook colleges that might be a focal point for attracting students. In Table 83, this does not appear to be the case; there are no statistically significant differences between the responses of non-Aroostook transfers and Aroostook transfers. Non-Aroostook transfer students list essentially the same characteristics of the colleges as do Aroostook students. Affordability ranks slightly higher for non-Aroostook transfers, and commuting distance is, not surprisingly, a larger issue for Aroostook transfers.

A similar analysis is shown in Table 84 for those transfer-student respondents who list

their current legal residence as Aroostook County and those who list their legal residence outside the County. In this case, although there are again no statistically significant differences between the two groups, non-Aroostook residents do rate the quality of programs and the size somewhat more highly than Aroostook residents. For Aroostook residents, affordability is the most highly-rated factor.

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Table 84 Assessment of Aroostook Characteristics for Transfer Students by Legal Residence

Legal Residence N Reasons for Attending Aroostook Institution Mean Std. Dev. Affordable 4.1 1.0 Good programs in my area 4.1 0.9 Within commuting distance 4.0 1.1 Right size 3.9 1.1 Near my job 3.6 1.4 Convenient class times 3.5 1.0 Reputation 3.5 0.8 Financial aid 3.1 1.4 Friend or spouse goes there 2.9 1.3 Attractive cultural/social life 2.9 1.1 Parents/Relatives alma mater 2.3 1.2 Recommended by a teacher 2.2 1.1

In Aroostook 62

Recommended by my guidance counselor 2.2 1.1 Good programs in my area 4.4 0.7 Right size 4.3 0.9 Affordable 4.2 0.9 Reputation 3.2 0.9 Convenient class times 3.2 1.3 Attractive cultural/social life 3.0 1.0 Recommended by my guidance counselor 3.0 1.4 Financial aid 3.0 1.3 Friend or spouse goes there 2.9 1.5 Within commuting distance 2.6 1.3 Near my job 2.6 1.4 Recommended by a teacher 2.4 1.0

Out of Aroostook 22

Parents/Relatives alma mater 1.9 1.1

5.6 Returning to Aroostook County

For the population that does expect to leave Aroostook County for either further

education or their careers, the question becomes whether they can be persuaded to return. There are two aspects to this. The first is their overall view of possibly returning, and the second is what factors might influence their decision. The first question is explored in Tables 85 through 88.

Table 85 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook County

Feelings about returning to Aroostook County Frequency Percent Definitely will find a way to return 42 21.7 % Would like to return but will not in the foreseeable future 95 49.0 % Do not wish or expect to return 57 29.4 % Note: Frequency Missing = 165

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Table 85 shows that 22% of the respondents who expect to leave Aroostook definitely plan to return at some point. This does not mean that they will in fact do so, but that there is definitely a pool of people who plan to return. The proportion of college student respondents indicating they definitely plan to return is about the same as high school respondents (22% college v. 21% high school). However, a larger proportion of college students (29%) than high school students (23%) indicate they do not wish to or expect to return.

This is partly influenced by the out-of-Aroostook residents attending college in the County who do not expect to return. Table 86 shows that a lower percentage (12.5%) of out-of-Aroostook residents than Aroostook residents (21.9%) plan to return in the future. Nearly 40% of out-of -Aroostook residents indicate they do not wish to or expect to return, compared with 27% of Aroostook residents.

Table 86 Plans to Return to Aroostook by Legal Residence

Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Definitely will find a way to

return

Would like to return, but will not in the foreseeable

future

Do not wish or expect to

return Total

30 70 37 137 21.9 % 51.1 % 27.0 % 74.1%

Legal residence in Aroostook

83.3 % 75.3 % 66.1 %

6 23 19 48 12.5 % 47.9 % 39.6 % 26.0%

Legal residence out of Aroostook

16.7 % 24.7 % 33.9 % 36 93 56 185

Total 19.5 % 50.3 % 30.3 % 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 38

Table 87 compares expectations about returning to Aroostook by gender. Although the results are not statistically significant, men are slightly more likely than women to say that they definitely will find a way to return and that they will definitely not return. Women are more likely than men to say would like to return, but not in the foreseeable future. These patterns are different than the high school responses (see Table 42 above). High school boys and girls were about the same on expressing a preference to return, while boys were more likely than girls to say they would like to find a way to return in the future. Another way of looking at the data in Table 85 and Table 87 is that, overall, 70.7% of college students say they definitely will or would like to return in the future. Women are slightly more likely (72.3%) than men (67.9%) to say they will or would like to return.

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Table 87 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook County by Gender

Gender Feelings about returning to Aroostook County Frequency PercentDefinitely will find a way to return 19 23.5 % Would like to return, but will not in the foreseeable future 36 44.4 % Do not wish or expect to return 26 32.1 %

Male

Total 81 100.0 %Definitely will find a way to return 23 20.5 % Would like to return, but will not in the foreseeable future 58 51.8 % Do not wish or expect to return 31 27.7 % Female

Total 112 100.0 %Note: Frequency Missing = 166

To complete the analysis of the transfer student population as a source of in-migration, Table 88 shows the responses for the transfer respondents to the question about returning to Aroostook in the future. As expected, a lower percentage of transferring respondents from colleges outside the County definitely expect to return (11.8% v. 33.3%) and a higher percentage indicate that they will not return (41.2% v. 23.8%). However, the differences are not so great in the percentage of responses indicating a preference to return, but not soon (47.1% v. 42.9%). It is noteworthy that, among the transfer respondents, a majority of responses to this question (61.8%) are from transferees from non-Aroostook colleges. This, by itself, suggests that transfer students from outside of Aroostook do find enough attractive characteristics in the area that they would consider returning.

Table 88 Likelihood of Returning to Aroostook by Transfer Location Frequency Row Pct Col Pct

Definitely will find a

way to return

Would like to return, but will not in the foreseeable future

Do not wish or expect to

return Total 7 9 5 21

33.3 % 42.9 % 23.8 % 38.2 % Transferred from Aroostook college

63.6 % 36.0 % 26.3 % 4 16 14 34

11.8 % 47.1 % 41.2 % 61.8 % Transferred from non-Aroostook college 36.4 % 64.0 % 73.7 %

11 25 19 55 Total 20.0 % 45.5 % 34.6 % 100.0 % Note: Frequency Missing = 29

As with the high school survey, respondents who indicated that they planned to leave

Aroostook County after their education was completed were asked what factors might persuade them to return at some point in the future. The responses are presented in Table 89, which shows the mean rankings in order from highest to lowest. There is not much variation between the highest and lowest ranked response, and the standard deviations are all very consistent. This indicates that the differences in the rankings are not strong. All of the factors could play some role. However, consistent with other responses, the factors related to jobs, income, and business are the most frequently cited.

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Table 89 Ratings of Possible Reasons to Return to Aroostook County Reasons for Possibly Returning to Aroostook County Mean Std. Dev.

If there were better business opportunities 3.94 1.08 If there were more opportunities to earn competitive salary 3.92 1.08 If there were more jobs with better health benefits 3.87 1.07 If there were better social/recreational activities 3.84 1.12 If there were more cultural diversity 3.66 1.10 If there were more opportunities for graduate study 3.64 1.08 If there were internships with job advancement 3.64 1.06 If there were loan forgiveness program 3.54 1.14 If there were lower taxes 3.33 1.08 If there were more affordable housing 3.29 1.06

Although it is not ranked highly among the reasons to return, a loan forgiveness

program is often cited as one of the public policy responses to youth out-migration. Table 90 relates support for the idea of loan forgiveness program as a reason to return to Aroostook. The percent of respondents indicating they agree or strongly agree definitely increases with the proportion of a student’s financial aid that they receive from loans. Forty-three percent of those who agree and 53% of those who strongly agree that a loan forgiveness program might attract them back to Aroostook receive more than half of their financing for college from loans. About 40% of the respondents who answered this question indicated that they received more than half of their financing from student loans. Thus, a student loan forgiveness program may have some effect and the population potentially responding may be large enough to make some difference.

Table 90 Support for Loan Forgiveness Program by Percent of Financial Aid from Loans

Percent of Financial Aid from Loans Freq Row Pct Col Pct None 1-25% 26-50% 51-75% 76-100% Total

3 0 1 1 2 7 42.9 % 0.0 % 14.3 % 14.3 % 28.6 % 5.0 % Strongly

Disagree 6.8 % 0.0 % 4.2 % 3.5 % 6.9 %

4 3 1 2 6 16 25 % 18.75 % 6.25 % 12.5 % 37.5 % 11.35 % Disagree

9.09 % 20 % 4.17 % 6.9 % 20.69 % 18 6 9 5 7 45

40.0 % 13.3 % 20.0 % 11.1 % 15.6 % 31.9 % Neither Agree nor Disagree

40.9 % 40.0 % 37.5 % 17.2 % 24.1 % 9 2 9 11 4 35

25.7 % 5.7 % 25.7 % 31.4 % 11.4 % 24.8 % Agree 20.5 % 13.3 % 37.5 % 37.9 % 13.8 %

10 4 4 10 10 38 26.3 % 10.5 % 10.5 % 26.3 % 26.3 % 27.0 % Strongly

Agree 22.7 % 26.7 % 16.7 % 34.5 % 34.5 %

44 15 24 29 29 141 Total 31.2 % 10.6 % 17.0 % 20.6 % 20.6 % 100.0 %

Note: Frequency Missing=218

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6. Conclusions and Implications for Economic Development

Youth out-migration has been and remains a serious issue for the long-term prospects of Aroostook County’s economy. The analysis of the data points to both the key factor affecting youth out-migration and to the possible ways it can be addressed. Put simply, young people in Aroostook County expect to obtain higher education and to be able to make use of that education to improve their economic and life prospects. High proportions of both high school students and college students indicated they will continue their education after their current period of school is complete. Thus, Aroostook will attract and retain young people to the extent to which the County offers them opportunities to use their college or other post-secondary education.

A somewhat greater proportion may leave Aroostook for their college education, and Aroostook youth, like those in much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine, are more likely to leave their home county for elsewhere in Maine rather than leaving the state entirely. Penobscot and Cumberland Counties are the major destinations within Maine, with the University of Maine as a major attraction. Those who leave Maine are likely to go to other New England states or the Mid-Atlantic states. Only a relatively small number of Aroostook high school and college students prefer to live in large urban areas. Moreover, while the available data are incomplete and imperfect, Aroostook youth do not appear to be greatly different from other youth in Maine in their aspirations and expectations or migration behavior.

The careers (and college majors) most associated with staying in Aroostook County are

the health professions and trades, education, and social services. These are also the professions most associated with women, who are more likely to go on for higher education, and, outside of these careers, also appear somewhat more likely to leave Aroostook. Men appear most attracted to Aroostook locations when they seek business management or entrepreneurial careers.

Other factors that influence who will leave Aroostook include connectedness to

Aroostook as measured by such factors as length of time in Aroostook and where one’s parents were born. Parents and friends are identified as the most influential sources of information on location decisions on high school students, and staying near family and friends is cited as one of the most important factors for college students in their decision about where to go to college and to live and work.

Although three quarters of the high school students said that they would like to stay in

or return to Aroostook at some point in the future, attracting youth to return to Aroostook will not be easy. A majority of youth who leave Aroostook desire to return, but a majority of these do not expect to do so in the foreseeable future. This is consistent among both high school and college student survey respondents. Overall, Census data show that the majority of youth who come to Maine were not born in Maine, meaning that returning young people in general is not easy anywhere in the state.

Neither college nor high school youth indicated that there is any particular information

or program that would significantly alter plans to stay or return to Aroostook County other than those associated with increased job and career opportunities. A loan forgiveness program

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was modestly supported by both college and high school students, and could be useful for the approximately 40% of college students who rely on loans for more than half of the financing for their college education. High school students also indicated that improved cultural and recreational opportunities in the County would make a difference in their locational choices.

The long-term answer to youth out-migration lies, therefore, in responding to the most

important of the factors affecting the decision: the desire of youth to get higher education and their expectation that they will use that education to build careers with higher incomes. This speaks well to the aspirations of Aroostook youth. The challenge is to provide an economy that meets those aspirations.

Looking at the types of jobs that Aroostook high school youth are seeking provides an

indication of key sectors to which economic development attention should be paid. At the head of this list are health services, education, and business/professional services.

Health services not only represent the largest opportunity based on the high school

and college responses, they are also the preferred occupation group for females (who indicate they are more likely to leave) and are also generally among the most demanding in terms of education and training. At the same time, the healthcare system’s costs are a major concern for Aroostook and the rest of Maine, so it is not possible to simply try to expand health services in Aroostook and thereby employment. Using the healthcare system to provide job opportunities for college-trained Aroostook youth will require a careful balancing between the expanded need for services and employment and the efficiency of the overall health system.

Education is another field that high school students frequently mentioned. Again,

there are good opportunities for college-trained people. And again, there are limits; school enrollments in Aroostook (like nearly everywhere else in Maine) are declining and school budgets are under great pressure. But it may be that an aging workforce in the schools may open up opportunities in the next few years that are not currently present.

A large proportion of both high school and college students in Aroostook are

interested in careers in business, and a noticeable number of students indicate a desire to start their own business. These students also indicated that they are likely to stay in Aroostook. Thus, programs to support youth entrepreneurship and involvement of youth with Aroostook area business through internships, etc. would seem likely to be effective.

The other side of encouraging growth in industries that are attractive to those who are

inclined to stay in Aroostook is encouraging growth in those where youth are currently inclined to leave. A key here will be business and professional services, which includes a wide array of occupations that are almost all of the type requiring higher education. For students interested in design fields such as architecture and engineering, in the natural and social sciences, in computer and information technologies, and in business management, these service occupations provide the major career routes.

While such services have usually been concentrated in larger urban areas, they are

increasingly being provided from a number of rural areas. The revolution in communication and information technologies plus the growth of such services as overnight couriers means that those offering services in rural areas can do so quite competitively. Transportation and

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communications infrastructure are critical, but Aroostook is fairly well served in both and improvements, such as the Aroostook Highway Project, are on the horizon.

A focus on service industries, particularly health and business/professional services,

also indicates a particular need to focus on the development needs of the service centers in Aroostook. These are the location for the major health services employers and will be the likely location for much of the growth in business and professional services. A majority of college and high school students indicated that they preferred to live in a rural area or small-city regions. In addition, the kinds of cultural and recreational activities of service centers were one of the few factors that high school students selected as potentially important. The current focus at the state level on the Creative Economy should offer some particularly important opportunities in this regard.

Particular attention needs to be paid to communities such as Fort Kent-Madawaska,

Presque Isle-Caribou, and Houlton. Increasing the urban amenities, including cultural and night life opportunities, in these urban areas will be a key part of attracting and retaining the majority of Aroostook students who prefer small cities to large ones.

A focus on these types of industries and occupations should not be taken to mean that

efforts to expand employment in such traditional fields as agriculture and forestry are unnecessary. These occupations, plus manufacturing and other traditional industries, are still vital to retaining that portion of youth who hope to work in these fields and remain in Aroostook County.

Based on the analysis presented in this report, the challenge of youth out-migration

cannot be under-estimated, nor will the response to it be easy for an economy such as Aroostook’s that has relied almost exclusively on its natural assets. But the surveys of high school students indicate that the majority are happy with the thought of living in Aroostook or of returning to the County if the opportunities arise. The task is to create those opportunities.

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Appendix A: Information on the Survey of High School Students

Included in this appendix is a copy of the survey instrument that was administered in the late Spring of 2004 to juniors and seniors at all seventeen of Aroostook County’s high schools. The survey instrument underwent two levels of pre-testing – one with students at the University of Southern Maine and another with a total of thirty students selected from Caribou, Fort Fairfield, and Presque Isle High Schools.

Also included is a summary report of the survey returns from each of the high schools. The summary shows that, across all seventeen schools, 1952 surveys were distributed and 1471 were returned, of which 1005 were usable for purposes of analysis. Overall then, about 75% of the students participated in the survey and over two thirds of those who participated provided usable responses. This was a very fine showing and contributed much to the quality of the study results.

04/23/2004

SURVEY OF HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY

Please respond to each question by checking the appropriate box(es), circling the appropriate number(s), or filling in the appropriate blank(s). Arrows ( ) indicate branching points that may redirect you to other questions, so please follow those instructions carefully. Section A: Your High School Experience 1. When do you expect to graduate from high school? 1 June 04 2 Dec. 04 June 05 Dec. 05 2. What type of courses have you mostly taken in high school? (Please check one.)

College preparatory Business Vocational/technical Other (please specify):____________ 3. How would you describe the grades you have received in high school? (Please check one.) 1 Mostly A’s 2 Mostly B’s or better 3 Mostly C’s or better 4 Mostly D’s or better 4. If you have attended a vocational/technical program, in which grade(s) did you attend? (Please check all that apply.)

a. Didn’t attend b. 9th grade c. 10th grade d. 11th grade e. 12th grade Section B: Your Hopes after High School

5. After you leave high school, which one of the following most closely describes what you would like to do if there were no barriers in your way?

6. What is the highest level of education that you hope to complete? (Please check one.) 1 High school Training program at a technical, business, vocational, or trade school Associate’s degree (2 years) Bachelor’s degree (4 years) Graduate degree Other (please specify): ______________ Undecided 7. mpleting all of your education, what occupation do you hope to pursue?_________________

3 4

1 2 3 4

2

3

4

5

6

7

After co

This study is being funded through a grant to NMDC provided by USDA Rural Development through the Aroostook County Empowerment Zone Program. NMDC is an equal opportunity lender/agency.

PLEASE CHECK ONLY ONE BOX In

AroostookIn Maine, but not

in Aroostook Outside

of Maine I hope to continue my education (in a two-year or

four-year college or trade/vocational school).

1 8

15

I hope to join the family business. 2 16 9

I hope to find a job. 3 10 17 I hope to take some time off and then decide. 4 11 18 I hope to become a full-time homemaker. 5 12 19 I hope to join the military. 13 20 6 I hope to _________________. (please specify) 7 14 21

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Section C: Your Attitudes about Living in Aroostook County

8. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements that describe your current feelings about living outside of Aroostook County after you finish high school. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree Your current feelings about living outside of Aroostook County after you finish high school. SD D N A SA

a. I want to experience living in a different location. 1 2 3 4 5 b. I want to be closer to family/friends who live outside of Aroostook County. 1 2 3 4 5 c. I want to attend school outside of Aroostook County. 1 2 3 4 5 d. There are more job opportunities outside of Aroostook County. 1 2 3 4 5 e. I want to live in a place with warmer weather. 1 2 3 4 5 f. The quality of life is better outside of Aroostook County. 1 2 3 4 5 g. Other (please specify): 1 2 3 4 5

9. Which statement best describes the kind of place in which you would like to live? (Please check one.) 1 Overall, I would prefer to live in a large city like Boston. 2 Overall, I would prefer to live in a small city like Portland. 3 Overall, I would prefer to live in a rural area like Aroostook.

10. Which statement best describes your feelings about where you want to live after you complete all of your

education? (Please check one.) 1 One way or another, I want to live in Aroostook County.

IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 13 IN SECTION D ON PAGE 3.

One way or another, I want to live in Maine, but not in Aroostook County. 3 One way or another, I want to live outside of Maine.

11. to leave Aroostook County after you finish all of your education, which statement best describes your

out returning at some point in the future? (Please check one.) 1 I definitely will find a way to return to Aroostook County.

IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 13 IN SECTION D ON PAGE 3.

2

If you hope feelings ab

I would like to return to Aroostook County, but probably will not anytime in the foreseeable future. 3 I do not wish or expect to return to Aroostook County.

12. ndicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding what might cha your mind about returning to Aroostook County. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

I might change my mind about returning to Aroostook if there were … SD D N A SA

2

Please inge

a. more information available about job opportunities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 b. more assistance programs to help me find a job in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 c. more service and assistance programs to help me start my own business in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 d. a student loan forgiveness program for working in Aroostook after college. 1 2 3 4 5 e. more housing assistance available in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 f. more cultural, community, social, and recreational activities available in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 g. other (please specify): 1 2 3 4 5

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Section D: Influences on Your Views about Living in Aroostook County 13. Which sources of influence helped shape your current preferences on where to live and work after you have

completed your high school education? (Please check all that apply.)

14. Using the labels ‘a’ – ‘m’ in Question 13, what was the most helpful source of influence? ________

15. Based on what you know today, which of the following best describes your plans? (Please check one.)

1 I am likely to continue my education on either a full-time or part-time basis immediately after high school. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 22 IN SECTION F ON PAGE 5.

2 I am likely to look for work or do something else, though I might continue my education later. 3 I am likely to look for work or do something else, and I will probably not continue my education later.

a. Parents b. Teachers c. Friends d. Coach e. Military f. Internet g. Colleges (mail, college fairs, etc.) h. Local businesses i. Relatives (other than parents) j. School counselor k. TV/movies l. Vocational/technical center staff m. Other (please specify): ______________________________________

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IF YOU PLAN TO CONTINUE YOUR EDUCATION IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH SCHOOL, PLEASE SKIP THIS PAGE AND GO TO QUESTION 22 IN SECT. F ON P.5.

Section E: Your Work Plans Immediately after High School 16. Do you have a job lined up after graduation from high school? (Please check one.) 1 No 2 Yes, full-time 3 Yes, part-time If yes, where? a. Town/city _________________ b. State_____

17. e your reasons for deciding not to continue your education immediately after high school? (Please

check all that apply.)

18. Using the labels ‘a’ – ‘k’ in Question 17, what is the st important reason for not continuing your education

immediately after high school? ______ 19. Which of the following choices do you intend to pursue? (Please check one.) 1 I am not joining the military. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 20.

What ar

mo

2 I will stay in the military for my career. 3 I will join the military for a stint and then return to Aroostook County. I will join the military for a stint and then return to Maine, but not to Aroostook. I will join the military for a stint and then live outside of Maine.

I don’t know what I will do after the military.

lan to leave Aroostook County after high school? No IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 29 IN SECTION G ON PAGE 6.

4

5

6

20. Do you p 1

2 Yes 21. ndicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding what

have changed your mind about leaving Aroostook County. (Please circle one number in each row.) 1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

PLEASE SKIP THE NEXT PAGE AND GO TO QUESTION 29 IN SECT. G ON P.6.

Please imight

a. I am joining the military. f. I can’t afford to continue my education. b. My grades are too low. g. I plan to get married/start a family. c. I want to travel. h. I can always continue my education in the future. d. I need a break from school. don’t need to continue my education to get the job I want. e. I want/need to work to support myself. j. I am unsure of my plans/goals.

k. Other (please specify): _______ ___________________________

I might have changed my mind about leaving Aroostook if there were… SD D N A SA

i. I

___

a. more information available about job opportunities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 b. a career information and job placement program in my high school. 1 2 3 4 5 c. services and assistance programs to help start my own business in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 d. more emphasis in my high school on preparing me for the job opportunities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 e. more financial aid available to further my education. 1 2 3 4 5 f. more housing assistance available in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 g. more cultural, community, social, and recreational activities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 h. other (please specify): 1 2 3 4 5

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IF YOU DO NOT PLAN TO CONTINUE YOUR EDUCATION IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH SCHOOL, PLEASE SKIP THIS PAGE AND GO TO QUESTION 29 IN SECT. G ON P.6.

Section F: Your Plans for Education Immediately after High School

22. Have you committed to attend a specific college or other post-secondary institution next year?

1 No 2 Yes If yes, where? a. Institution _____________________________________ b. State_______

23. Have you visited any colleges; universities; or business, trade, or vocational schools? (Please check all that apply.)

No b. Yes - in Aroostook c. Yes - in Maine, but not in Aroostook d. Yes - outside of Maine

24. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons for deciding to continue your on immediately after high school. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

Reasons for deciding to continue your education immediately after high school SD D N A SA

a.

educati

a. I could not find a job without a college education. 1 2 3 4 5 b. I will be able to get a better job. 1 2 3 4 5 c. My parents wanted me to go. 1 2 3 4 5 d. I will gain a general education and appreciation of ideas. 1 2 3 4 5 e. There was nothing better to do. 1 2 3 4 5 f. I will be able to make more money. 1 2 3 4 5 g. I will learn more about things that interest me. 1 2 3 4 5 h. I will get training for a specific career. 1 2 3 4 5 i. A mentor/role model encouraged me to go. 1 2 3 4 5 j. It will make me a more cultured person. 1 2 3 4 5 k. Other (please specify): 1 2 3 4 5

25. Using the labels ‘a’ – ‘k’ in Question 24, what is the most important reason for deciding to continue your education immediately after high school? ________

26. What are your reasons for selecting the school you would most like to attend? (Please check all that apply.) a. Its academic quality/program offerings c. Its affordability Its size: e. large or f. small b. Its athletic/extracurricular activities d. Its location g. Other (please specify): _______________

27. Based on the information available to you now, w ere do you think you will attend school? (Please check one.)

1 In Aroostook County IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 29 (NEXT PAGE).h

2 In Maine, but not Aroostook

Outside of Maine

28. indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding what might have ged your mind about continuing your education in Aroostook County. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

I might have changed my mind about leaving Aroostook if there were… SD D N A SA

3

Pleasechan

a. more information available about college opportunities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 b. more information available about job opportunities after graduating from a college in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 c. more emphasis in high school on continuing my education in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 d. more financial aid available to me to attend a college in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 e. an attractive loan repayment program for attending college in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 f. more emphasis on job placement in Aroostook colleges. 1 2 3 4 5 g. more emphasis on internships and practical work experiences in Aroostook colleges. 1 2 3 4 5 h. more housing assistance available in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 i. more cultural, community, social, and recreational activities available in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 j. Other (please specify): 1 2 3 4 5

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Section G: About Yourself 29. What is your gender? 1 Male 2 Female

30. How long have you lived in Aroostook County? ________ year(s)

31. With whom do you currently live? (Please check one.)

32. Were your parents born in Aroostook County? (Please check one for each parent.) a. Mother : 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don’t know

b. Father : 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don’t know

33. What is the highest level of education c mpleted by each of your parents? (Please check one for each parent.) a. Mother

o b. Father

1 1 Eighth grade or less 2 2 Some high school 3 3 High school diploma Certificate from business or technical school of less than two years Some college Associate’s degree (2 years) Bachelor’s degree (4 years) Some graduate or professional school Graduate or professional degree None of the above Don’t know

34. rrent em ment status of each of your parents? (Please check one for each parent.) a. Mot er

4 4

5 5

6 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

10 10

11 11

What is the cu ployh b. Father

1 1 Employed full-time (including self-employed) 2 2 Employed part-time (including self-employed) 3 3 A full-time homemaker Unemployed 5 Not working due to a disability Retired Deceased None of the above Don’t know

35. a. How many brothe rs do you have? _______ b. If you have any, how ny of your brothers/sisters are currently attending or have attended or graduated

from college? ___ Thank you very much

4 4

5

6 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

rs/sistema

____

for your valuable input!!

1 Both parents 2 One parent 3 Other relative 4 Other adult 5 On my own

AROOSTOOK HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY RETURNS

Returned Percentages

School Name A.

Usable B.

Unusable C.

TotalD.

MissingE. = C+D

Enrollment

C. / E. Total

Returned / Enrolled

A. / C. Usable /

Total Returned

A. / E. Usable/Enrolled

Presque Isle H-S 220 67 287 18 305 94.1% 76.7% 72.1% Caribou H-S 153 40 193 67 260 74.2% 79.3% 58.8%

Fort Fairfield H-S 57 18 75 40 115 65.2% 76.0% 49.6% Ashland Community

H-S 27 12 39 34 73 53.4% 69.2% 37.0% Central Aroostook Jr-

Sr H-S 58 14 72 12 84 85.7% 80.6% 69.0% Easton Junior-Senior

H-S 22 5 27 7 34 79.4% 81.5% 64.7% Houlton H-S 61 28 89 53 142 62.7% 68.5% 43.0%

Limestone Community H-S 18 14 32 10 42 76.2% 56.3% 42.9%

Wisdom Middle H-S 31 19 50 9 59 84.7% 62.0% 52.5% Madawaska H-S 105 25 130 4 134 97.0% 80.8% 78.4%

Fort Kent Community H-S 86 91 177 25 202 87.6% 48.6% 42.6%

Van Buren District S-S 29 38 67 0 67 100.0% 43.3% 43.3%

Washburn District H-S 20 6 26 42 68 38.2% 76.9% 29.4%

Hodgdon H-S 49 16 65 52 117 55.6% 75.4% 41.9%

So Aroostook CSD-S 29 48 77 0 77 100.0% 37.7% 37.7% Katahdin H-S 13 19 32 36 68 47.1% 40.6% 19.1%

Limestone Math and Science H-S 27 6 33 72 105 31.4% 81.8% 25.7%

TOTAL 1,005 466 1,471 481 1,952 75.4% 68.3% 51.5%

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Appendix B: Information on the Survey of College Students

Included in this appendix is a copy of the survey instrument that was administered early in the Fall 2004 semester to upperclassmen at the University of Maine at Fort Kent and the University of Maine at Presque Isle and to all of the students enrolled in degree programs of the Northern Maine Community College. Since much of the high school survey instrument was adopted/adapted in designing the survey form for college students, it underwent only one level of pre-testing with University of Southern Maine students.

Also included is a summary of the student returns from each of the colleges. Across

the three colleges, 844 surveys were distributed and 388 were returned, of which 359 were usable. In the aggregate, 46% of the target population participated in the survey, and almost 93% of the returned surveys were usable.

SURVEY OF STUDENTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY COLLEGE DEGREE PROGRAMS

Please respond to each question by checking the appropriate box(es), circling the appropriate number(s), or filling in the appropriate blank(s). Arrows ( ) indicate branching points that may ask you to skip questions, so please follow those instructions carefully.

Section A: Your Post-Secondary Educational Experience

1. Please provide the following information on your current post-secondary educational program at UMPI: a. Start date (mm/yy): ____ / _____ d. Course of study/major: ___________________ b. Expected date of completion (mm/yy): ____ / ____ e. Cumulative GPA (on a 4.00 scale): __ . __ __ c. Degree program: Associate’s Bachelor’s f. Number of credits completed: _______

2. Did you transfer to UMPI from another college?

No Yes. If yes, which one? College: ________________________________State/province: _________

3. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons underlying your decision to attend UMPI. (Please circle one number in each row)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

1 2

1 2

Your reasons for deciding to attend UMPI SD D N A SA

a. It has a strong reputation. 1 2 3 4 5 b. It offered me an attractive financial aid package. 1 2 3 4 5 c. It is the alma mater of my parents/relatives. 1 2 3 4 5 d. It is affordable. 1 2 3 4 5 e. It has a good program in my field of study. 1 2 3 4 5 f. It is the right size. 1 2 3 4 5 g. A friend or spouse is also attending. 1 2 3 4 5 h. It is within commuting distance from home. 1 2 3 4 5 i. It is near my job. 1 2 3 4 5 j. The classes are offered at convenient times. 1 2 3 4 5 k. It offers an attractive cultural/social life. 1 2 3 4 5 l. I want to participate in the school’s athletic program. 1 2 3 4 5 m. It was recommended to me by a guidance counselor. 1 2 3 4 5 n. It was recommended to me by a teacher. 1 2 3 4 5 o. Other (please specify) _______________________.

4. To date, approximately what percentage of the financial help that you have received came from each of the following

sources? (Please circle one number in each row).

Source(s) of financial help None 1 -25% 26 – 50% 51 -75% 76 – 100%

a. Job (during school and/or summer) 0 1 2 3 4 b. Parents, other relatives, or friends 0 1 2 3 4 c. Your own savings 0 1 2 3 4 d. Student loans 0 1 2 3 4 e. Grants/scholarships 0 1 2 3 4 f. Other (please specify)_____________________

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Section B: Your Plans and Hopes after Graduation

5. Do you plan to further your post-secondary education after completing your current program? 1 No Yes If yes, a. What degree will you seek next?________________________________

b. What course/study will you pursue next? _________________________ c. What college do you expect to attend next? Don’t know College: _____________________________ State/province: ___________________ d. How soon after graduation from your current program will you begin? (Please check one.)

1 Immediately 2 Within 1 year 3 At least 1 year later

6. Long term, what is the highest level of education that you hope to complete? (Please check one.) 1 Associate’s degree (2 years) 4 Other (please specify): _______________________________ Bachelor’s degree (4 years) Undecided Graduate or professional degree

7. After completing all of your education, what occupation do you hope to pursue?____________________________

8. Do you have a job lined up after you complete your current program? (Please check one.) 1 No Yes, full time 3 Yes, part time If yes, where? a. Town/city: _______________________ b. State/province: ____________________

Section C: Your Attitudes about Living in Aroostook County

9. Which statement best describes your feelings about the kind of place in which you would like to live? (Please check one.) 1 Overall, I would prefer to live in a large city like Boston. Overall, I would prefer to live in a small city like Portland.

Overall, I would prefer to live in a rural area like Aroostook.

10. Which statement best describes your feelings about where you want to live after completing all

2

____

2 5

3

2

2

3

of your education? (Please check one.)

1 One way or another, I want to live in Aroostook County. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 11 ON PAGE 3.

2 One way or another, I want to live in Maine, but not in Aroostook County. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 12 ON PAGE 3.

3 One way or another, I want to live outside of Maine. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 12 ON PAGE 3.

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11. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons underlying your current preference to live in Aroostook County after completing all of your education. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

After completing all of my education, I prefer to live in Aroostook because…. SD D N A SA

a. the pay/benefits are better in my desired occupation in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 b. the career opportunities seem better in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 c. I need to pay back my loans. 1 2 3 4 5 d. I want to work for a specific employer that has a facility in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 e. I have decided to attend school in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 f. my spouse or partner found employment in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 g. my spouse or partner has decided to attend school in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 h. my spouse or partner wants to live in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 i. I prefer the climate in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 j. I prefer the cultural opportunities and social life in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 k. I prefer the recreational activities in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 l. I prefer the cost of living in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 m. I want to live closer to family and/or friends. 1 2 3 4 5 n. other (please specify) ____________________________________________.

PLEASE GO TO QUESTION 15 IN SECTION D ON PAGE 4.

12. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons underlying your current

preference to live outside of Aroostook County after completing all of your education. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

After completing all of my education, I prefer to live outside of Aroostook because…. SD D N A SA

a. the pay/benefits are better in jobs elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 b. the career opportunities seem better elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 c. I will need to find employment elsewhere to pay for my loans. 1 2 3 4 5 d. I want to work for a specific employer that does not have a facility in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 e. I have decided to attend school elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 f. my spouse or partner found employment elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 g. my spouse or partner has decided to attend school elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 h. my spouse or partner wants to live elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 i. I prefer the climate elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 j. I prefer the cultural opportunities and social life elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 k. I prefer the recreational activities elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 l. I prefer the cost of living elsewhere. 1 2 3 4 5 m. I want to live closer to family and/or friends. 1 2 3 4 5 n. I want to return to where I lived before. 1 2 3 4 5 o. other (please specify) ___________________________________________________

13. Which statement best describes your feelings about returning to Aroostook County at some point in the future?

(Please check one.) I definitely will find a way to return to Aroostook County. IF YOU CHECKED THIS BOX, PLEASE GO TO 1

QUESTION 15 IN SECTION D ON PAGE 4. I would like to return to Aroostook County, but probably will not anytime in the foreseeable future. I do not wish or expect to return to Aroostook County.

2

3

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14. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding what might change your mind about returning to Aroostook County. (Please circle one number in each row.)

1=Strongly Disagree 2=Disagree 3=Neither agree nor disagree 4=Agree 5=Strongly Agree

I might change my mind about returning to Aroostook if there were … SD D N A SA

a. more opportunities to earn a competitive salary. 1 2 3 4 5 b. more jobs with better health benefits. 1 2 3 4 5 c. more affordable housing available. 1 2 3 4 5 d. lower property, income, and/or business taxes. 1 2 3 4 5 e. better business opportunities. 1 2 3 4 5 f. more opportunities for graduate study/continuing education. 1 2 3 4 5 g. more internships with on-the-job training and potential for job advancement. 1 2 3 4 5 h. a comprehensive student loan forgiveness program for living/working in Aroostook. 1 2 3 4 5 i. better social and recreational activities. 1 2 3 4 5 j. more cultural diversity. 1 2 3 4 5 k. other (please specify) ___________________________________________________

Section D: About Yourself

15. What is your gender? Male Female

16. a. Where were you born? 1) Town/city ________________________ 2) State/province: ___________ b. Where is your legal residence? 1) Town/city ________________________ 2) State/province: ___________

17. In what year were you born? 19 __ __

18. At the time you complete your current post-secondary educational program, for how long will you have lived in each of the following locations? (Please enter a number such as 0, 1, 2, … in each

1 2

blank.) a. Aroostook County? _________years b. Maine, but not in Aroostook County? ____________years c. Outside of Maine? ___________years

19. What is the highest level of education completed by each of your parents? (Please check one for each parent.)

a. Mother b. Father Eighth grade or less Some high school High school diploma Certificate from business or technical school of less than two years Some college Associate’s degree (2 years) Bachelor’s degree (4 years) Some graduate or professional school Graduate or professional degree None of the above

Don’t know

1 1

2 2

3 3

4 4

5 5

6 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

10 10

11 11

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AROOSTOOK COLLEGE STUDENT SURVEY RETURNS

Returned Percentages

School Name

A. Usable

B. Unusable

C. Total

D. Missing

E. = C + D Enrollment

C. / E. Total Returned

/ Enrolled

A. / C. Usable / Total

Returned

A. / E. Usable / Enrolled

UMPI 113 4 117 257 374 31.3% 96.6% 30.2% UMFK 50 3 53 180 233 22.8% 94.3% 21.5% NMCC 196 22 218 19 237 92.0% 89.9% 82.7%

TOTAL 359 29 388 456 844 46.0% 92.5% 42.5%

C:\Documents and Settings\bandrews\Desktop\Temp\S_\Final Migration Report October 04.doc