1

Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth

Anastasia R. SnyderAssociate Professor of HDFSThe Ohio State UniversitySnyder.893@osu.edu

Acknowledgements and Funding Sources

• Diane K. McLaughlin, Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography at Penn State University, is a Co-PI on this project.

• Mary Ann Demi, doctoral candidate at Penn State University in Rural Sociology and Demography, is a graduate student who has been involved in nearly all aspects of the project.

• Funded by National Research Initiative grant from USDA/CSREES (#2007-35401-1773)

• The primary data collection part of the project (RYE) is also funded by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania

Motivation for Research• Rural youth have lower educational aspirations and

attainment (Elder et al., 1996; Haller & Virkler, 1993; McLaughlin & Blackwell, 2000)

• Rural youth out-migration is a problem that could be linked to unique future aspirations of rural youth (Fuguitt et al., 1989; Gibbs, 2005; Johnson, 2003)

• No studies of how aspirations change over time, or what influences aspirations

• Combines theoretical perspectives related to status attainment, achievement of human capital and adolescent identity development

Figure 1. Educational Attainment of Population Age 25 and Older, 2006-2009

Source: 2006-2009 American Community Survey

Figure 2. Percent with BA or Higher by Residence, ACS 2006-2008

Figure 3. Future Expectations in 2000

n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

Figure 4. Migration between 2000 and 2005 among NLSY97 Youth

n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

Figure 5. Educational Attainment in 2005

15.7

7.7

13.215.5

13.114.5

25.1

0

10

20

30

BA or Higher

All NM S NM L Sub S Sub L CC S CC L

Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009; n=6,831 youth age 15-19 in 2000, 20-24 in 2005

Figure 6. Combining School and Work in 2005

23.5

9.6

23.426 26.7

22.6

15.4

0

10

20

30

40

Percent Combining School and Work

All NM S NM L Sub S Sub L CC S CC L

Table 1. Cox Proportional Hazard Model Predicting a First Birth, NLSY97

Time Varying Variable Hazard Ratio

Nonmetro Residence 1.25*

Central City Residence .96

High School Degree .65*

College Degree .28*

First Cohabitation 2.67*

First Marriage 3.00*

Paeudo LL=15232.12

N=51,107

Note: Model controls for sex, race/ethnicity, family background characteristics; data from NLSY97 panel sample waves 1-11; Source: Snyder & Demi, 2009

Main Research Questions• What are the future aspirations of rural youth

regarding education, careers and migration?

• What factors influence these aspirations?

• How do aspirations change over time and what influences these changes (RYE primary data)?

• How do early aspirations and expectations, and migration patterns, shape future outcomes during emerging adulthood (Wave 4)?

Research Design• Rural Youth Education (RYE) Study– Stratified random sample of rural PA school districts in

2005– Primary longitudinal data collection effort

• Wave 1 n=1,516• Wave 2 n=1,475 (946 panel) • Wave 3 n=1,287 (658 panel)

• Analysis of secondary data for met/nonmet comparisons and additional information

• NLSY97 panel data• Add-Health • 1990, 2000 Census; ACS PUMS 2005-2007

7th grade at W1—younger cohort

11th grade at W1—older cohort

W1 W2 W3 W4

W1 W2 W3 W4

Figure 7. Cohort Sequential Design for RYE Data Collection

Data Collection Time Points:W1=Spring 2005W2=Winter-Spring 2007W3=Winter-Spring-2009W4=Winter-Spring-2011

11th HS+1 HS+3 HS+5

7th 9th 11th HS+1

Data Collection Challenges

• Difficult to track the panel sample, especially the older cohort– Lots of residential mobility, changing numbers and

emails

• Final wave 4 data collection will use mixed-method survey collection design –Mail combined with web survey design (Dilman, 2009)

Table 2. RYE Panel Sample at W1 (N=513)

Variable Percent

Female 54.4

Two parent family 70.0

Family relatively low income 18.7

Mother more than HS education 62.0

Father more than HS education 58.5

Likes school a lot 71.4

I can stay here and get the education I want 75.1

I can stay here and get the job I want when I’m an adult 64.7

Low Pov/High EducationLow Poverty/Low EducationHigh Poverty/High EducationHigh Poverty/Low Education

38.423.424.813.4

16

Figure 8. Change in Educational Aspirations W1-W3

N=513, RYE younger cohort

17

Figure 9. Change in Occupational Aspirations W1-W3

N=513, RYE younger cohort

18

Figure 10. Change in Residential Aspirations W1-W3

N=513, RYE younger cohort

Table 3. Logistic Regression Predicting Stability in Educational Aspirations

Variable β eβ

Stable Residential Aspirations .14 1.15

Stable Work Aspirations .81 2.24

Female .48 1.61

Two parent household .53 1.71

Mother has higher than HS education .62 1.85

Father has higher than HS educaiton .50 1.65

Student likes school ‘a lot’ or very ‘much’ .62 1.88

Constant -2.07 --

-2(LL)DFPseudo R2N

599.66813.14513

Model controls for attitudes, community typology, family SES

Conclusions

• Stability in school aspirations, less so for work and residence– More stability among those with higher aspirations– Forming by 7th grade, possibly earlier

• Stability in work aspirations is associated with stability in educational aspirations, but not with stability in residential aspirations

• Importance of school and family contexts in educational aspirations

Future Directions

• Wave 4 data collection Spring 2011

• Use restricted NLSY97 data to examine within and between county moves (migration and residential mobility) – Emphasize work, school and migration transitions – Also include county-level variables – Use NLSY79 to examine return migration to rural areas