microsoftnokia - strategic innovation for the newly merged entity - by noam bernstein

24
STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE NOAM BERNSTEIN 1 STRATEGIC INNOVATION ANALYSIS for A NEWLY MERGED ENTITY OCTOBER 23, 2013

Upload: noam-bernstein

Post on 07-Nov-2014

775 views

Category:

Business


0 download

DESCRIPTION

September 2013...Microsoft & Nokia...Microsoft the software behemoth acquires Nokia, the inventor of the mobile phone, for a mere $13B. Are they two dinosaurs trying to mate? Or, does the data point otherwise? In this quick exercise, using strategic frameworks & heuristics,combining both companies' data with macro & category trends, I try to answer that question, and also to guide the spotlight to the best Innovation opportunity areas - where, when & how MicrosoftNokia should Innovate

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN 1

STRATEGIC INNOVATION ANALYSIS for A NEWLY MERGED ENTITY OCTOBER 23, 2013

Page 3: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

us/default.aspx-http://www.microsoft.com/en

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesleadershipforum/2013/09/04/microsoft-and-nokia-a-marriage-made-in-hell/

-microsoft-/why04/09/2013http://www.forbes.com/sites/nigamarora/ phones/-nokias-buy-to-stupid-not-was

/7000020161-quit-or-down-double-was-it-acquisition-nokia-http://www.zdnet.com/microsofts

3

Page 4: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise 4

Where should play to win?

Page 5: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Assets filter (customers, channels, knowhow)

Core Microsoft

Core Far out

Opportunity trends (size & time)

Time

Size

Capital filter (advantage)

Time to ROI

Cap

ital

Ne

ed

ed

?

Innovation Exercise 5

To sift through hype & rumor, data driven frameworks synthesizing external opportunity with internal capabilities & assets should be applied

Page 6: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Customers

Fit to Microsoft Customer

Fit

to N

oki

a C

ust

om

ers

Geographies

Fit to Microsoft

Fit

to N

oki

a

Channels

Fit to Microsoft Channels

Fit

to N

oki

a C

han

nel

s

Innovation Exercise 6

Customers are today, more than ever, at center; channels & regions are still very real, hard won assets; these criteria help filter & focus where to innovate

Page 7: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise 7

Microsoft remains a multi-product powerhouse brand in homes & offices of millions of users worldwide, despite recent devices & performance

http://www.forbes.com/companies/microsoft/

Page 8: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN 8

Microsoft led early on in the computer software services arena; Today it competes with giants in many arenas; Apple & Google are strongest

https://www.google.com/finance

1990-today

2008 -today

Microsoft Apple Google

Page 9: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

qtr.png-2013-June-vendors-smartphone-Windows-/IDC08/2013i.forbesimg.com/chuckjones/files/-http://b

Innovation Exercise 9

Microsoft’s sheer scale affords it patience towards a longer term horizon; Today a mere 3.1% of market, Windows Phone is expected to reach 10.2% in 2017

Today, 8.7 million Windows Phone smart phones make 3.1% In 2017, Windows Phone is forecast to reach 10.2%

Page 10: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

http://www.forbes.com/companies/nokia/ finan.png113http://allaboutwindowsphone.com/images/news/misc/q

Innovation Exercise 10

Nokia, pioneer of cellular phones, failed to identify the smart phone revolution; No longer leader, Nokia still hold major market share in many global markets

Page 11: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise million/-8-5-with-2013-1q-for-revenue-in-billion-7-7-hits-/nokia18/04/2013http://www.engadget.com/ 11

Nonetheless, and far from US hype, the Lumia smart phone sold 61.9 million units (a feat few companies worldwide are capable of)

Page 12: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise 12

Heritage, capabilities, assets; driven by a strong user-centered DNA, Nokia’s distinct design & color identity, is produced, distributed & sold worldwide

Page 13: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise 13

Windows Phone/ Mobile

Lumia Smart Phones

50% market share of feature phones

Windows

Office (Business)

xBox (Live/360)

Kinnect

SkyDrive Bing Skype

Windows Store

Yammer

Outlook.com

MSN

Azure (Business)

Global Distribution

Nokia Networks

Nokia Equipment

Handset & Hardware

design Low cost Manufacturing

Nokia BetaLabs

“Here” Apps

Windows Explorer

Global User research

Design Identity

Business Channel

Internet Explorer

The Lumia+Windows Phone collaboration represents a fraction of the potential; Smart combinations range over products, services, users, channels & regions

Page 14: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

“What SHOULD be done”

Industry Analysis

Trends

Products, Assets & Capabilities

Products Assets & Capabilities

“What they CAN do, BETTER”

Innovation Exercise 14

With such a broad portfolio of products, assets & capabilities to work with, an external industry & trend hypothesis is a more pragmatic focus method

Best Innovation Areas External need hypothesis Internal focus filter

1 2

3

Page 15: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

To be at the right place at the right time should synchronize offerings to users & channels, “on trend”

Page 16: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Millenials (& digital natives)

Macro-economic crisis

Emerging economies

The “long tail” Frugal Innovation

Innovation Exercise 16

Macroeconomics, technology & culture are interacting, impacting consumption around the world, and the way companies support it

Page 17: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Augmented Reality

Smartphone commoditizing

Big Data hedging (search social & location)

Consumerization of Business IT

Internet of Things

Innovation Exercise 17

Within and near Microsoft’s activity areas, expressions of macro trends pose early signs of potential nascent categories & risky maturing markets

Page 18: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Assets filter (customers, channels, knowhow)

Core Microsoft

Nokia Others Lumia

Need New

Core Microsoft

Core Far out

Opportunity trends (size & time)

Time

Size

Capital filter (advantage)

Time to ROI

Cap

ital

Ne

ed

ed Expensive &

long term

Other can do too

Others can do faster

Too risky

Smart phones

?

Innovation Exercise 18

Growing trends attract everyone; however for Microsoft, longer term horizons, requiring larger capital, will filter out & beat constrained competition

Page 19: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN

Customers

Fit to Microsoft Customer

Fit

to N

oki

a C

ust

om

ers

Geographies

Fit to Microsoft

Fit

to N

oki

a

Channels

Fit to Microsoft Channels

Fit

to N

oki

a C

han

nel

s

Winners

Forget about it

Innovation Exercise 19

Leveraging Nokia’s user-centered approach, on Microoft’s huge business & consumer user base, through existing channels, in best regions

Page 20: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN 20

Focus Avoid

When? longer-term macro trend targets short term ‘sprints’

Where? growing, value add markets,

through owned channels commoditized markets

How? leveraging scale & capital arenas where small can win

What? integrated solutions software + hardware

look beyond smart phones

Who? future business workers more of the same

Strategically recommending that Microsoft pair internal strengths & assets to growing long term external trends, avoiding weaknesses

Page 21: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN .jpg02-13-26-04-featurephones-smartphones-/idc04/2013http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/ Innovation Exercise 21

While preparing to capture larger cycle patterns, Microsoft should remember to tactically leverage waning markets, such as non-smart phones, to the fullest

Page 22: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN Innovation Exercise 22

To create “own-able” tech platforms & new categories, the best innovation areas cluster large scale HW&SW integration at low cost with global distribution,

Internet of Things Frugal Innovation

Nokia hardware Microsoft Cloud

HW Product & Users Millenials

Augmented Reality ‘Here’ by Nokia

Consumerization of IT Emerging economies

Nokia hardware Business cloud

IT-Net of Business Things Augmented Reality Things Cloud enabled Things

Page 23: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN 23

Things

Atoms

Senses

Nokia, ‘Internet of Things’ & ‘Transplantable Tech’ are self-disrupt opportunities; Microsoft can recreate itself – software & hardware with a ‘twist’

Page 24: MicrosoftNokia - Strategic Innovation for the newly merged entity - by Noam Bernstein

STRATEGIC INNOVATION EXERCISE – NOAM BERNSTEIN INNOVATION EXERCISE 24