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For professional use only – Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt: a prime destination for global investors Max Wolman, Portfolio Manager Aberdeen Asset Management Citywire South West Retreat April 2013

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Page 1: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

For professional use only – Not for Public distribution

Emerging Market Debt: a prime destination for global investors

Max Wolman, Portfolio ManagerAberdeen Asset Management

Citywire South West Retreat

April 2013

Page 2: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Overview

• Emerging Market Debt: a mainstream asset class

• Looking ahead: what does the future hold

• Using EMD in client portfolios

• Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund

• Appendices

1

Page 3: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Emerging Market Debt: a mainstream asset class

Page 4: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

The perception of risk versus the reality

3

Country A Country B

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Apr 12; Bloomberg, Jan 13

Public Debt (% GDP) 111.7 43.2

Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) -7.3 -2.3

GDP Growth (%) 2.1 3.5

10 Year Yield (%) 1.9 5.4

Page 5: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

General Government Debt (% GDP) vs Government Balance (% GDP)

Belgium

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Spain

Australia

Canada

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

USA

China

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

PhilippinesThailand

Vietnam Belarus

Croatia

Egypt

Georgia

Hungary

Iraq

Ivory Coast

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Latvia

Lebanon

Lithuania

Namibia

Poland

Qatar

Romania

RussiaSaudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia

South AfricaTurkey

UAE

Ukraine

Argentina

Barbados

Brazil

Chile

ColombiaCosta Rica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Jamaica

Mexico

Panama

Peru

Uruguay

Venezuela

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Eurozone G10 Asia CEEMEA LatAmJapan

Developed countries

Emerging countries

EM economies have considerably lower debt levels...

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, May 12

Japan's Govt. Debt is 236%

General Government Balance for 2012 (% of GDP)

Gro

ss G

enera

l Gove

rnm

ent D

ebt f

or

2012 (

% o

f G

DP

)

4

Page 6: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

... in contrast to the developed market fiscal cliff…

5

Average credit rating of Developed markets vs Emerging Markets

Source: Morgan Stanley, Fitch, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s

DM (RHS) EM (LHS)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

BB-

BB

BB+

BBB-

BBB

2002 2010200820062004 20132012

A+

AA-

AA

AA+

• External debt is 62% investment grade

• Average credit quality is BBB-

• Domestic debt is 83% investment grade

• Average credit quality is BBB+

Page 7: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

• External debt is 62% investment grade

• Average credit quality is BBB-

• Domestic debt is 83% investment grade

• Average credit quality is BBB+

S&P breakdown of EMBI Global Diversified Index S&P breakdown of GBI-EM Global Diversified Index

… for investment grade credit quality

AA8.4%

A3.4%

BBB17.4%

BB19.3%

B50.0%

NR1.5%

A56.7%

BBB26.3%

BB17.0%

Source: JP Morgan, Dec 12Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Generally the credit ratings range from AAA (highest) to D (lowest). Where bonds held in the fund are rated by multiple rating agencies (Moody's, S&P and Fitch), the lower of the ratings is used. This may not be consistent with data from the benchmark provider.

6

Page 8: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

The EMD universe has grown rapidly …

7

Total EMD market: USD 7.7trn

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Local Sovereign USD Sovereign USD Corporate

Size of the EMD market by investment type

Source: BIS, Bondradar, JP Morgan, Sep 12

USD Corporate $1,023 bn

(13%)Local Sovereign$6,000 bn

(78%)

USD Sovereign

$549bn(9%)

Page 9: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

2010

8

• By 2050 Emerging Markets are forecast to represent 69% of world GDP versus 40% now

• With a growing, financially independent, aspirational middle class

Source: Citi Mar 11; GDP measured in 2010 PPP USD

2050f

... and are likely to be the main drivers of future growth

NorthAmerica

22%

Europe23%

Other9%

Japan6%

Emerging Markets

40%

Europe 9%

Japan 2%

Emerging Markets

69%

Other9%

North America

11%

Page 10: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Country 10 year bond yield (%) Inflation y-o-y (%) Real yield (%) Credit rating (S&P)

Brazil 9.1 5.5 3.6 A-

Colombia 5.4 2.4 3.0 BBB+

Malaysia 3.5 1.3 2.2 A

Mexico 5.5 4.2 1.3 A-

South Africa 6.6 5.6 1.0 A-

Poland 3.8 2.8 1.0 A

Hungary 6.1 5.2 0.9 BB

Indonesia 5.1 4.3 0.8 BB+

US 1.9 1.8 0.1 AA+

Germany 1.5 2.1 -0.6 AAA

UK 2.0 2.7 -0.7 AAA

Source: S&P, Bloomberg, Jan 13

… and real yields remain positive…

9

Page 11: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

The same perceptions exist for EM companies…

10

1. Total capital/risk weighted assets2. Mid yield to maturitySource: Company presentations and reporting, figures for Q1 2012. Yield as at Jan 13.Securities selected for illustrative purposes only.

Company A Company B

Net interest margin (%) 2.6 5.5

Return on common equity (%)

11.0 20.5

Total capital ratio1 (%) 14.9 15.1

Yield of representative2016 senior bond2 (%)

1.4 2.1

A2 ratedMexican bank

A2 rated US bank

Page 12: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

EM corporates have lower leverage in the same ratings buckets …

… but trade at wider spreads

11Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Sep 12

… and wider spreads despite lower leverage

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

A

BBB

BB

B

Net Leverage, x

EM Corporates US Corporates

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325

A

BBB

BB

B

Spread per Turn of Net Leverage, bps/x

EM Corporates US Corporates

Page 13: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Looking ahead: what does the future hold

Page 14: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

EMD 2013 outlook

• EMD providing a haven for investors diversifying out of developed markets

• Structural redeployment by global asset allocators away from core developed bond markets will continue to ensure inflows into EM bond markets.

• Modest supply in external sovereign bonds will be easily absorbed by demand for assets offering yield, which should prevent any significant spread widening.

• Limited supply in hard currency sovereigns paves way for greater opportunities in emerging market corporates

• Reduced tail risk in Europe, increased allocations to EM equities and robust FDI inflows will be supportive for EM currencies.

• Renewed tolerance for modest currency appreciation by Chinese policy-makers will allow other EM countries to accommodate some appreciation pressures.

• Chinese cyclical slowdown has passed, refocusing attention on its structural demand for commodities to fuel its infrastructure investment requirements.

• Biggest risk to EM would be overly strong US economic data which could threaten the “lower for longer” environment.

13

Page 15: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Breakdown of JPM GBI-EM GD returns

EM currencies poised to pull their weight in 2013

14Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 12

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12

GBI-EM GD Total Return (in USD) GBI-EM Global Div Rates (Local Bond) Returns GBI-EM GD FX Return (USD)

EM FX returns only contributed 3% out of 16.7% in EM local currency in 2012

Total return (USD from May 11 to Dec 12)

Rates return (Local Bond from May 11 to Dec 12)

FX return (Local vs USD from May 11 to Dec 12)

6.22% 21.22% -12.30%

Total return (USD since Jun 12) Rates return (Local Bond since Jun 12) FX return (Local vs USD since Jun12)

15.62% 9.35% 5.73%

Page 16: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Hourly wage in manufacturing

Mexico: still gaining export competitiveness vs China

* Estimate for ChinaSource: ILO and INEGI, Oct 12

• The convergence in costs with China has led to an increase in market share and in foreign direct investment flows in manufacturing

15

Dollars China Mexico

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009*

2010*

2011*

3.0

237.9%

7.3%

Page 17: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Using EMD in client portfolios

Page 18: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

5-year risk vs return

Risk & return data support the case for EMD

17Source: L-IM. All figures were correct at the close of business on 31st December 2012

IMA £ Corporate Bond

IMA £ High Yield

IMA Global

IMA Global Bonds

IMA Global Emerging Markets

IMA UK Equity Income

JPM EMBI Global Diversified

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Be

nch

mark

An

nu

alis

ed

Risk / Annualised Standard

Page 19: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

A blended approach can offer the best risk/return profile

18

JPM EMBI Global diversified vs JPM GBI-EM Global diversified (Jan 03 – Jun 12)

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Jun 12Note: Annualised return = 10.65% , Annualised volatility = 9.10%

9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

%

100% JPM GBI-EM

Glob. Div.

100% JPM EM Bond Glob. Div.

13% JPM GBI-EM GD

87% JPM EMBI GD

Page 20: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Strategic Bond funds are not the answer

19

Why?

• They don’t have the necessary skill sets and invest across the ‘traditional’ credit spectrum of government bonds, credit and high yield

• This creates a strong argument for holding dedicated Emerging Market Debt exposure alongside ‘strategic’ exposure

UK 47.9

Developed Europe (ex UK) 28.1

North America 14.2

Australia and New Zealand 1.9

South and Central America 0.6

Middle East and Africa 0.5

Emerging Europe 0.5

Developed Asia 0.2

Emerging Asia 0.1

Japan 0.01

Non-classified 2.6

Managed fund 1.9

Cash and equivalent 1.6

• The average* strategic bond fund allocates only 1.7% to Emerging Market Debt

NB Due to rounding effects the total does not add up to 100%* Based on the weighted average of the top 10 GBP Strategic bond funds (IMA), Jan 13Source: Aberdeen, Hargreaves Lansdown and Lipper

Developed92.3%

Cash andequivalent

1.6%

Emerging Markets1.7%Non-classified

2.6%

Managed fund1.9%

Strategic Bond funds are not very ‘strategic’ in our view

Page 21: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Summary

• EMD is supported by better fundamentals than developed markets

• Perceptions are often counter to this reality in both countries and companies

• This is a rapidly growing asset class which is predominantly investment grade

• Inflows are structural and should remain steady amid search for yield

• EMD offers attractive return opportunities

20

Page 22: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund

Page 23: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund

• Aberdeen’s flagship onshore ‘blended’ EMD fund

• An emerging market debt solution investing across entire EMD universe

• Provides investors with an attractive level of income and capital return

• Active allocation between sub asset classes provides diversified sources of return

• Offers compelling risk return characteristics

22A true emerging market debt solution

Page 24: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund

23

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12

LC Sovereign HC Sovereign/Quasi HC Corporates FX exposure

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 30 Sep 12Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund

Allocation historyAberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund

Page 25: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Key positions

% Index Portfolio SovereignUS$

bonds

Corporate US$

bonds

SovereignLocal bonds

Currency exposure

Brazil 6 9 1 5 3

Ivory Coast 1 1 1

Mexico 6 12 7 1 4 4

Philippines 5 1 1

Serbia 1 3 3

S. Africa 3 6 2 4 2

UAE 5 3 2

Uruguay 2 2 2 2

24

Source: Aberdeen Asset ManagementPositions for the Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund,31 Jan 2013. Index: JPM EMBI GD

Benchmark aware not benchmark driven

Page 26: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond FundKey fund facts as at 31 March 13

Source: Lipper, as at 31 Jan 13. Basis: Total Return, NAV to NAV, UK Net Income Reinvested,Share Class A Acc. Past performance is not a guide to future results

Performance (Gross) Key facts

Fund Size £77.4 million

Launch date 9 Mar 11

Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team

Sector IMA Global Bonds Sector

Number of holdings 126

Yield 4.8%**

ISIN GB00B5BV9P41

AMC 1.00%

% 3 months 1 year Annualised since inception

Fund 1.25 14.37 13.14

Benchmark -2.29 9.86 10.28

Difference +3.54 +4.51 +2.86

25

** As at 31 Jan 13. The Distribution Yield reflects the amounts that may be expected to be distributed over the next 12 months as a percentage of the mid-market share price of the fund at the date shown. The Distribution and Underlying Yields are based on a snapshot of the portfolio on that day. The yields do not include any preliminary charge and investors may be subject to tax on distributions. The fund may distribute coupon income and a portion of the fund’s income is charged to capital. Thishas the effect of increasing the distributions for the year and constraining the fund’s capital performance to an equivalent extent

* Benchmark: 100% JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified

90

100

110

120

130

140

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

Aug11

Sep11

Oct11

Nov11

Dec11

Jan12

Feb12

Mar12

Apr12

May12

Jun12

Jul12

Aug12

Sep12

Oct12

Nov12

Dec12

Jan13

Feb13

Mar13

Fund (Gross) JPM EMBI GD GBP

Performance (Gross)

Page 27: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond FundKey fund facts as at 31 March 13

Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Datastream, Gross, USD,

50

150

250

350

450

550

Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12

Fund (Gross) JPM EMBI GD USD

Performance (Gross)

Performance (Gross)

Key facts

Fund Size US$3.07 billion

Launch date 15 Aug 01

Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team

Benchmark JPM EMBI GD USD

Number of holdings 158

% in top ten holdings 24.3%

ISIN LU0132414144

Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50%

Valoren 4983937

Share class A2 Acc

Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.68%

Fund domicile Luxembourg

% YTD 1 year Annualised

3 years 5 years Launch

Fund -0.90 12.56 11.98 11.21 14.25

Benchmark* -2.26 10.11 9.87 9.44 10.61

Difference +1.36 +2.45 +2.10 +1.77 +3.64

* Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified

Risk analysis 3 years

Tracking error 2.60

Information ratio 0.78

Sharpe ratio 1.44

26

Page 28: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond FundCurrent positions

Country Portfolio (%)Benchmark (%)

(%) of total fund

Hard currency Local currency FX (% of portfolio)

Sovereign/Quasi Corporate

Argentina 0.5 1.5 0.5

Brazil 8.9 5.9 1.0 4.3 3.6

Chile 0.4 3.2 0.4

Colombia 0.7 4.1 0.7

Costa Rica 0.5 0.5 0.5

Dominican Republic 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.2

El Salvador 0.6 1.7 0.3 0.3

Guatemala 1.0 0.5 1.0

Honduras 1.1 1.1

Mexico 10.8 5.3 5.9 0.8 4.1 4.1

Panama 0.5 2.7 0.5

Peru 1.8 3.5 1.8 1.8

Uruguay 2.4 1.9 0.3 2.1 2.1

Venezuela 4.7 4.5 4.7

Other* 1.2

Latin America total 35.5 36.8 17.2 6.7 11.6 8.0

Croatia 2.0 2.0 2.0

Egypt 1.0 0.6 1.0

Georgia 0.5 0.4 0.5

Hungary 1.5 2.5 1.5

Ivory Coast 1.1 0.7 1.1

Kazakhstan 0.7 3.2 0.3 0.4

Latvia 1.1 0.9 1.1

Lithuania 2.4 2.5 2.4

Namibia 0.6 0.2 0.6

Nigeria 1.0 0.2 1.0

Qatar 1.0 1.0

Romania 2.3 0.8 2.3

Russia 8.9 5.6 0.8 5.6 2.5 0.1

Serbia 3.3 1.2 3.3

South Africa 5.0 3.3 2.4 2.6 1.9

Tanzania 0.6 0.6

Turkey 5.2 5.6 2.2 1.4 1.6

UAE 4.0 2.6 1.4

Other** 14.4

Europe/Middle East/Africa total 42.2 44.1 25.7 9.8 6.7 2.0

* Belize, Chile, Ecuador, Jamaica** Belarus, Bulgaria, Gabon, Ghana, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Poland, Ukraine, ZambiaSource: Aberdeen Asset ManagementPositions for the Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund, 22 March 2012

Page 29: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond FundKey fund facts as at 31 March 13

Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Datastream, Gross, USD

Performance (Gross)

90

100

110

120

130

Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13

Fund (Gross) JPM CEMBI BD

Performance (Gross) Key facts

Fund Size US$322 million

Launch date 30 Dec 10

Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team

Benchmark JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified

Number of holdings / issuers 146 / 118

% in top ten holdings 12.7%

ISIN LU0566480116

Valoren 12575568

Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50%

Share class A2 Acc

Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.73%

Fund domicile Luxembourg

* Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified** Annualised

28

Risk analysis Since launch

Tracking error 3.10

Information ratio 0.56

Sharpe ratio 1.06

% YTD 1 year Annualised

2 years 5 years Launch

Fund 0.30 12.42 9.33 -- 9.59

Benchmark* 0.93 10.57 8.13 -- 7.96

Difference -0.63 +1.85 +1.20 -- +1.64

Page 30: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Country Portfolio % Benchmark % Difference %

Brazil 8.64 5.88 2.76

Chile 2.11 4.12 -2.01

Colombia 3.02 3.85 -0.83

Dominican Republic 2.09 0.23 1.87

El Salvador 2.66 0.29 2.37

Guatemala 1.21 0.19 1.02

Mexico 8.76 6.02 2.75

Peru 5.34 3.72 1.62

Latam Other* 0.00 2.92 -2.92

Latam total 33.84 27.22 6.62

Abu Dhabi 2.03 4.49 -2.46

Dubai 4.77 0.65 4.12

Egypt 1.03 0.33 0.71

Georgia 0.49 0.00 0.49

Kazakhstan 1.10 1.48 -0.38

Nigeria 1.77 0.70 1.07

Russia 12.34 5.97 6.37

Turkey 5.15 4.20 0.95

Ukraine 4.02 1.12 2.90

EMEA Other** 0.00 13.85 -13.85

EMEA total 32.70 32.79 -0.09

China 4.42 6.74 -2.32

Hong Kong 4.16 5.75 -1.59

India 4.82 5.53 -0.71

Indonesia 4.52 2.35 2.17

Malaysia 0.70 2.41 -1.71

Mongolia 0.82 0.23 0.59

Philippines 1.37 2.12 -0.75

Singapore 1.84 4.45 -2.62

South Korea 3.46 5.81 -2.35

Thailand 2.84 3.67 -0.84

Asia Other*** 0.00 0.90 -0.90

Asia total 28.95 39.95 -11.00

US/Cash/Other 4.51 0.00 4.51

Total 100.0 100.0

Sector Portfolio % Benchmark %

Capital Goods 0.45 0.44

Consumer Discretionary 4.22 3.07

Consumer Staples 6.37 3.32

Energy 13.02 14.01

Financials 30.46 35.87

Health Care 0.00 1.83

Industrials 4.46 6.13

Information Technology 0.82 0.99

Materials 11.49 11.02

Real Estate 10.63 4.93

Telecommunication Services 6.21 9.87

Utilities 7.37 8.49

Cash 4.51 0.00

Total 100.00 100.00

Rating Portfolio % Benchmark %

AAA 0.00 0.22

AA 2.87 6.77

A 6.50 26.61

BBB 33.43 39.59

BB 31.64 12.00

B 16.48 9.87

CCC 0.00 0.21

CC 0.00 0.02

NR 0.00 0.00

NA 4.57 4.73

Cash 4.51 0.00

Total 100.0 100.0

Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund

29

Current positions

Source: Aberdeen Asset ManagementPositions for the Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund, 31 Mar 13

* Argentina, Barbados, Jamaica, Venezuela, Paraguay** Bahrain, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa*** Macau,Taiwan

Page 31: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Appendices

Page 32: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Why Aberdeen?

31

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Dec 12

Unparalleled depth and breadth

London

São Paulo

Budapest

Bangkok

Kuala Lumpur

Singapore

• Combined emerging market debt and equity expertise

• Local presence, with over 70 EM investment professionals worldwide

• Over $100bn in EM assets, with $11bn in EMD

• Over 50 countries and 1,000 companies researched

Hong Kong

Page 33: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

Our strategies

32

EMD Plus: invests in hard currency sovereign, quasi sovereign and corporate bonds, localcurrency sovereigns and currencies

• Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund ($3,039m)

• Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified

• AUM: $4,898m

EMD Local Currency: invests primarily in local currency sovereign bonds and currencies

• Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund ($463m)

• Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified

• AUM: $4,343m

EMD Core: invests primarily in hard currency sovereign and quasi sovereign bonds

• No pooled fund

• Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified

• AUM: $2,109m

EMD Corporate: invests primarily in hard currency corporate bonds

• Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund ($308m)

• Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified

• AUM: $510m*

As of 28 Feb 13. *$1,463m including off benchmark allocations to EM corporates within our EMD Plus strategy

Total AUM: $11.9bn Total AUM: $11.9bn

Page 34: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

EMD Plus1

EMD Local Currency3 EMD Core4

EMD Corporate2

Annualised performance

33

-5

0

5

10

15

YTD 1 year 3 years 5 years Sinceinception

%

Composite Benchmark

0

5

10

15

20

YTD 1 year 2 years Since inception

%

Composite Benchmark

As at 28 Feb 2013

1 Inception: 1 Aug 99Benchmark: JPM EMBI Global Div.2 Inception: 1 Feb 11Benchmark: JPM CEMBI Broad Div.3 Inception: 1 May 09Benchmark: JPM GBI-EM Global Div.4 Inception: 1 Jan 96Benchmark: JPM EMBI Global Div.Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. Total return, gross of fees in USD.

Consistent long term performance

-5

0

5

10

15

20

YTD 1 year 3 years 5 years Sinceinception

%

Composite Benchmark

0

5

10

YTD 1 year 2 years Sinceinception

%

Composite Benchmark

Page 35: Microsoft power point   cw sw retreat april 2013 [read-only]

The investment team

• Experienced, stable and growing team

• Broad range of specialist skills across the asset class

• Formal weekly portfolio review and six-weekly strategy meetings

• Monthly meetings with EM equity, global macro, US and Asian fixed income teams

34

Brett Diment(21 years)

Edwin Gutierrez(16 years)

Kevin Daly(24 years)

Esther Chan(9 years)

Max Wolman(13 years)

Siddharth Dahiya(7 years)

Andrew Stanners(12 years)

Viktor Szabo(12 years)

Ewa Gray(9 years)

Anthony Simond(4 years)

Flora Sexton(6 years)

Strong challenge culture

(-) denotes years industry experienceSource: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Dec 2012

Kathy Collins(5 years)

Debora Confortini(4 years)

Imre Tajti(10 years)

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Global Emerging Market (GEM) Equity Flows (US$bn)

Inflows into GEMs will be supportive for EM currencies

35Source: EPFR , Barclays Capital, 31 Dec 2012

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12

• GEMs benefitting from renewed flows into global equity markets

• Valuations looking more attractive despite reduced earnings outlook

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Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested.

The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from AAM. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of AAM.

The information contained herein including any expressions of opinion or forecast have been obtained from or is based upon sources believed by us to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness.

Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

36

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For professional use only