Michael Kahn CREST and DST/NRF CoE in Scientometrics & Science Policy Stellenbosch University mjkahn@sun.ac.za

The changing socio-economic landscape

Pre 1994

Extractive institutions: zero growth; high inequality; high absolute poverty

Apartheid Balkanization

Inward focused economy

Post 1994

Nominally inclusive institutions; low growth; high inequality; reduced absolute poverty

Rapid urbanization

Open economy – growth of TNCs; BRICS

Research & Innovation system

Universities Public

labs/government

Private

sector

CIVIL

SOCIETY

Framework conditions & ‘Inputs’

‘People’ – actors, institutions and intermediaries

Finance – state, private, ‘own,’ offshore

Capital assets – infrastructure (comms; libraries; labs; utilities)

Macro-economic fundamentals

Regulatory system inc. IPR, standards, ethics

Incentive systems

The changing contract between science and society

Pre 1994

Early - science in modernizing ‘South Africanism’ (Dubow)

Later – ‘own’ science and science for the war machine (Kahn)

Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy

Post 1994

RDP days – ‘Science for a democratic South Africa’ guided by the Republic of Science

GEAR days – instrumentalist science; ‘big technology’ plus ‘own science;’ AIDS denialism

Later - ‘own’ science and BIG SCIENCE

Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy; Competitive funding; Research Chairs; CoEs

Scenario 1: Innovation Hub

• South Africa’s comparatively developed infrastructure creates opportunities for strategic regional development. South Africa has a comparatively developed capacity for scientific and technological innovation.

• This capacity creates opportunities for strategic regional investment to build on the S&T skills base and knowledge yielding a comparative advantage and a competitive edge regionally and globally.

• The innovation hub explores the building of collective regional strategic investment and indigenous technology capacity. It considers the emergence of excellence in scientific research and discourse, new human resources development and application of policy instruments geared towards solving the socio-economic problems of the region.

•

Scenario 2: Frozen Revolution

• This scenario highlights the effect of the non-implementation of government policy on socio-economic upliftment, that is the masses become dissatisfied and key players operate in a fragmented and individually focused manner.

• The Frozen Revolution scenario depicts a situation where the government is trying to address social and economic upliftment through endless policy formulation processes. Policy paralysis, manifested in general non-delivery, and some populist projects, ultimately leads to stagnation, and a widening gap between the élite and the masses.

• For Science and Technology this means “hobby horse” projects and vote-catching projects with a continued reduction in resources leading to the demise of the S&T system.

Scenario 3: Global Home

• Government embraces global liberalisation and facilitates private sector empowerment to respond to market forces, in line with global trends and opportunities.

• The scenario recognises that government engages with and adopts global rules and regulations. This leads to (i) significant initial economic growth, (ii) some improvement in social development and (iii) some dissolution of national identity and self-determination.

• S&T developments are focused on international trends with pockets of excellence, an inability to build on indigenous knowledge and a failure to address local social development needs.

Scenario 4: Our Way is the Way

• This depicts South Africa’s perceived ability to challenge the conventional route to globalisation by rallying developing country support for the creation of a significant South-South economic bloc.

• This approach results in isolation by the developed world. ‘Our way is the way’ highlights South Africa’s challenge to globalisation.

• The industrialised world responds by isolation of South Africa.

• In terms of S&T the outcome is the strengthening of the local skills base, a focus on development and promotion of self-sufficiency. Government invests in technology innovation but gives less emphasis to a pure science base. Efforts are made to gather scientific information by all means.

The nature of innovation activities

Pre 1994

War production amid technology drought

Anglo-American dominates JSE

CSIR main assignee of US patents

GERD: GDP 1.04%

Post 1994

JSE Top 100 derive ±40% revenue globally

Major owner of JSE securities is foreign (34%)

Patenting is rising, but still low …

Massive leap in registration of trademarks abroad

Permanent research staff numbers static

GERD: GDP 0.76%

Research Output : 1984 - 2014

Source: Web of Science (2015)

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2000

4000

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8000

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12000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Count

Count

What factors explain this rise?

Increase in Journal Subsidy

Increase in researcher productivity (# ‘constant’)

Increase in direct incentives to researchers

Increase in Research Chairs

Increase in international co-publication (especially HIV)

Increase in health sciences and social science outputs (HIV)

Increased scope of the Rating System

Increased number of indexed SA publication titles

Increase in perverse behaviour

WHAT HAS BEEN THE DIRECT ROLE OF POLICY IN THIS???????

Comments on DHET proposals

Uniform subsidy payment for journals

Continues to discourage collaboration, especially beyond HE walls and internationally

Books are to be over-rewarded

Perverse behaviours will be reinforced

Salami slicing will continue

Viva mediocrity

Time to look at research group evaluation?