A SIMULATION RESEARCH ONA SIMULATION RESEARCH ONCHINESE URBANIZATION ANDCHINESE URBANIZATION AND

ENERGY COMSUMPTIONENERGY COMSUMPTION（（2010-20402010-2040））

Mi Hong Mi Hong Zhou wei Zhou weiZheJiangZheJiang University University ，，Xiamen UniversityXiamen University1010thth IAEE EUROPEAN CONFERENCE IAEE EUROPEAN CONFERENCE7-10 September 2009 in vienna,Austria7-10 September 2009 in vienna,Austria

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• 1.There is a large socio-economicsdevelopment gap between Urban & Ruralin China

• 2.In the total population ofChina(1.3billion),rural population are over700 million.

•

• 3.With rapidely of economics developmentof urban area in China,the more and morerural persons have translated from ruralregion to urban region.

Chinese urbanization rate increases from 17.92% inChinese urbanization rate increases from 17.92% in1978 to 44.94% in 2007, and grows 0.93 percent per1978 to 44.94% in 2007, and grows 0.93 percent per

year, and it will stay at a rapid speed in the nextyear, and it will stay at a rapid speed in the next20-30 years.20-30 years.

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• 4.A lot of compexities relation topopualtion,economics,energy and publicpolicies which should be analyzed.

The main point of the paper is the complexities relationThe main point of the paper is the complexities relationto Chineseto Chinese Urbanization And Energy Urbanization And Energy comsumptioncomsumption

China energy consumption grows rapidly,China energy consumption grows rapidly,Foreign oil takes 50% of domestic oilForeign oil takes 50% of domestic oil

consumption in 2007,and oil importing relianceconsumption in 2007,and oil importing reliancereaches up to 52% in 2008.reaches up to 52% in 2008.

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• The paper is devided into four parts:

• The first part is about inproving traditionalgravity model according to Chinese urban& rural socio-economics characteristics.

• The second part is cacaulating thecoeffients of the modified gravity modelusing Chinese data.

• The third part is forcasting the Chineseenergy demend which is considereddemographic factor and other socio-economics factors by system dynamicsmethod(Vensim sinmulation software).

• The fourth part is focused on the changestrategy of Chinese future energy policy.

• Keyfitz Nathan, a well-known demographer, putforward a population migration model as follows:

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Traditional GravityTraditional Gravity Model Model

ModifiedModified Gravity Model Gravity Model

Gravity centerGravity center

Calculate Coefficient in the Model

urbanization and migration modelurbanization and migration model

““urbanization-energy-economyurbanization-energy-economy”” model model

result of urbanization simulationresult of urbanization simulationUrban population exceeds rural population inUrban population exceeds rural population in2013. The urbanization rate in China will be2013. The urbanization rate in China will be

reach 61.5% in 2040.reach 61.5% in 2040.

energy demand of industry, transportation andenergy demand of industry, transportation andresidential consumptionresidential consumption

energy demand of farming, construction, wholesale andenergy demand of farming, construction, wholesale andretail trade, other consumptionretail trade, other consumption

energy total demand in Chinaenergy total demand in China

• Chinese energy demand will reach up to52.4 billion tons standard coals in 2040.

• Following this pattern, Chinese energyconsumption for ten thousand Yuan worthof the gross domestic product may bedecreased to 0.570 tons standard coals in2040, equivalent to half of the 2006.

DiscussionDiscussion

• migration from rural to urban areas is obviouslyinfluenced by the policy factor in China.

• The limitation of city environmental capacity• Chinese energy consumption structure must be

adjusted considerably, the proportion of the coalshould be reduced and the ratio of hydropower ,nuclear energy, wind energy,solar energy andbioenergy will be increased.