methods and tools contributing to fta annele eerola vtt technical research centre of finland ian...

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA

Annele EerolaVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Ian MilesUniversity of Manchester, UK

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th -17th October 2008


Contents

Outlines of the presentation

• Multiple faces of FTA - multiple contexts and objectives- method developers, general FTA principles

• Making sense of FTA methods and tools - classification schemes

- examples of methods and tools• Contribution of the various methods and tools

- for the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation- for the various phases of the FTA process

• Selecting methods and designing the process- general guidelines- important design dimensions- assessing quality

• Directions for further research - implications for Theme 1 parallel sessions


Multiple faces of FTA

Multiple contexts and objectives (1)

• National and regional foresight programmes (Miles et al, 2008)

– creating shared understandings among the societal key actors– facilitating dynamism, innovation and competitiveness – developing prospective intelligence for policy-making and strategies

Recent considerations:– from S&T policy focus towards a more horizontal policy view– from technology focus to broad-scope societal foresight – from expert consultation to participatory approaches involving a wide pool of stakeholders



• Technology Assessment (Johnston, 2008; Rader & Porter, 2008)

– assessing the potential impacts of emerging new technologies– facilitating sound technological developments – providing input for legislative policy options– serving national parliaments and governmental bodies at national, regional and municipal levels– US OTA (1974-1995), parliamentary TA & EP STOA, and Danish Board of Technology as examples

Recent considerations: – balanced consideration of positive and negative impacts– balanced consideration of economic, societal, environmental and ethical perspectives– external expert analysis vs. constructive technology assessment




• Industrial foresight and roadmapping (Cuhls & Johnston, 2008)

– examining development drivers and challenges at industry and company-level

– supporting strategic decision making, innovation and competitiveness – creating shared visions and commitment among the key actors

Recent considerations:– balanced consideration of technology-push vs. demand pull issues– consideration of the entire value chain, incl. end-users– broadening the meaning of 'technology' (services, business models and organisational issues included)

– corporate social responsibility




Developers of methods and tools

• A variety of epistemic communities have influenced the methodological development of FTA, including

– innovation studies – technology foresight– technology assessment– futures research– technology forecasting – business forecasting & roadmapping

(see e.g. Johnston, 2008; Miles, 2008)

• The biennial FTA conferences have provided a new opportunity for mutual learning and exchange of experiences since 2004



Some general FTA principles can be defined(Cagnin & Keenan, 2008)

• Future-orientation• Participation• Evidence-based• Multidisciplinarity• Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources• Action orientation


• The previous two FTA conferences have documented a wide variety of methods and tools contributing to FTA

• A fresh overview can also be found in The Handbook of Technology Foresight (ed. by Georghiou et al, 2008)

In these contexts, the various methods and tools have been classified by

– type of technique: qualitative vs. quantitative/semi-quantitative– type of approach: exploratory vs. normative– type of knowledge source: expertise-interaction/creativity-evidence (see e.g. Popper, 2008)

Types of methods and tools

Various classification schemes


• Backcasting• Brainstorming• Expert panels, citizens panels, conferences, workshops• Essays, scenario writing• SWOT analysis• Interviews• Literature reviews• Morphological analysis• Relevance trees, logic charts• Role play, acting• Environmental scanning, weak signals• Science fictioning, wildcards, genius forecasting


Examples of qualitative methods in use


• Critical & key technologies• Delphi panels & questionnaires• Gaming-simulation • Multicriteria analysis, quantitative scenarios • Polling & voting• Roadmapping, benchmarking• System analysis, structural analysis• Cross-impact analysis • Patent analysis, bibliometrics• Indicators and time series analysis• Trend extrapolation • Modelling


Examples of semi-quantitative & quantitative methods in use


The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)


Contribution of methods and tools

• Potential contribution of various methods and tools has been considered

– for different modes of knowledge conversion in the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation

socialization, externalisation, combination, internalization (Nonaka, 1994; Eerola & Väyrynen, 2002; Eerola & Jørgensen, 2008)

– for different phases of FTA processes systemic framework for methods (Saritas, 2006) pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action, renewal (Miles, 2002/Popper, 2006)

When and how do methods and tools contribute


Contribution of methods and tools

FTA as a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation

Tacitknowledge

Tacitknowledge

Explicitknowledge

Explicitknowledge

Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge

Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge

Field

building

Linking

explicit

knowledge

Dialogue

Learning by doing

Socialization Externalization

Internalization Combination

Core group Project group Steering committee Stakeholder groupsExpert networksConferences & seminars

Participants' and stakeholders' pilot projects, R &D activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority settingInternational agreements/ strategies/priority setting

Expert interviewsDelphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/ and/or action recommendations

Reports on desk-top surveysBackground reports for focusedworkshopsReports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports on foresight process and resultsConference papersProject website

( Eerola et al, 2002, 2008; SECI by Nonaka, 1994)


A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)


Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)

Qualitative methodsMethods / Activities Pre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewal

foresight ment•1 Backcasting Qualitative 50% 50% *)

•2 Brainstorming Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10%•3 Citizens panels Qualitative 10% 40% 40% 10%•4 Conferences / workshops 10%Qualitat10%iv 40% 20% 20%•5 Essays / Scenario writing 10%Qualitative 70% 10% 10%•6 Expert panels Qualitative 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%•7 Genius forecasting Qualitative 90% 10%•8 Interviews Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10%•9 Literature review Qualitative 70% 30%•10 Morphological analysis Qualitative 50% 50%•11 Relevance trees / logic charts 10%Qualitative 40% 40% 10%•12 Role play / Acting Qualitative 50% 50%•13 Scanning Qualitative 50% 10% 30% 10%•14 Scenario workshops Qualitative 70% 30%•15 Science fictioning Qualitative 100%•16 SWOT analysis Qualitative 20% 50% 30%•17 Weak signals / Wildcards 10%Qualitative 50% 30% 10%

*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment


Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)

Quantitative & semi-quantitative methods

Methods / Activities Pre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewalforesight ment

•18 Critical / key technologies 10%Semi-quantitative 50% 30% 10% *)

•19 Delphi Semi-quantitative 60% 30% 10%•20 Gaming-simulation Semi-quantitative 50% 50%•21 Multicriteria analysis 10% 40% 40% 10%•22 Patent analysis 100%•23 Polling / voting 20% 30% 30% 20%•24 Quantitative Scenarios / SMIC 90% 10%•25 Roadmapping 10% 10% 70% 10%•26 Stakeholders mapping 10% 20% 20% 40% 10%•27 System / structural analysis 10% 50% 40%•28 Benchmarking 40% 20% 40%•29 Bibliometrics 90% 10%•30 Cross-impact Quantitative50% 50%•31 Indicators and time series 50%Quantitative 30% 20%•32 Modelling Quantitative 60% 40%•33 Trend extrapolation Quantitative30% 50% 20%

*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment only


Selecting methods and designing the process

• Focus on the triad of Data, Theory & Methods

• Use multiple methods

- blend quantitative and qualitative methods

- integrate distinct methodological contributions & multiple judgments

• Consider the available time/resources when selecting methods

• Formulate an explicit communication plan, taking advantage of electronic media

• Devise an explicit path to impact decision-making

• Assess the quality of FTA

Some general guidelines (Rader & Porter, 2006)


Selecting methods and designing the process

• Informative vs. instrumental outcomes• Consensual views vs. diverse future perspectives• Exclusive vs. extensive stakeholder involvement• Fixed vs. autonomous process

Important design dimensions (Könnölä et al, 2008)


Assessing the quality (Rader & Porter, 2008)Issues Dimension Considerations

Information Pedigree Fitness for purpose Correspondence of information & issues:- Adequacy - Relevance

Accuracy Comprehensiveness

Applicability Access & Availability Intelligibility

Reliability Control- Sources – Where from?- Sources – Method of gen. - Verification- Consensus

Confidence- Peer acceptance- Legitimacy

Quality of Tools Fitness for purpose Adequacy/Applicability Relevance Adaptability/ Flexibility

Transformation/ Encoding

Transparency Model documentation Sources of information

Arbitrariness – scientific set-ups

Legitimacy Collegial consensus

Information communicated through networking

Intelligibility Compliance with target audience

Accessibility Transparency

Communication of uncertainties

Recognition Statement

Pedigree statement

Information communic-ated into the foresight exercise

Acknowledgement of Input


Directions for further research

• Conceptual framing of the FTA process• Varying roles of methods & tools in FTA processes• Challenges of adaptive FTA and modular design• Accumulation of useful knowledge on methods and tools

Theme 1 parallel sessions: Issues to be considered


ReferencesCagnin, C. and Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted

Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.

Cuhls, K. and Johston, R. (2008). Corporate Foresight. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.

Eerola, A. and Väyrynen, E. (2002). Developing TF and TA Practices on the basis of European Experience. VTT Research Notes 2174, Espoo (in Finnish; abstract in English).

Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008). Foresight in Nordic Countries. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.

Johnston, R. (2008). Historical Review of the Development of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.

Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. and Koivisto, R. (2008): Management of Foresight Portfolio - Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation. Submitted to TASM (forthcoming).

Miles, I. (2008). From the Futures to Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.

Miles, I., Cassingena Harper, J., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M. and Popper, R. (2008). The Many Faces of Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al . Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.

Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No.1, p. 14-37.

Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.

Rader M. & Porter, A. (2008). Fitting Future-oriented Analysis Methods to Study Types. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.

Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Ph.D. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

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