FROM ORACLES TO DIALOGUE - Exploring New Ways to Explore the FutureCOST A22 Final Conference

9-11 July 2007 - Athens

BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

National Technical University of Athens School of Rural and Surveying EngineeringDept. of Geography and Regional Planning

Athens 2007

FROM ORACLES TO DIALOGUE - Exploring New Ways to Explore the FutureCOST A22 Final Conference

9-11 July 2007 - AthensLIST OF CONTENTS

1. Linking methods for agile foresight and roadmapping processes at VTT,

Ahlqvist T.M, A. Eerola, S. Kivissari R. Koivisto and T. Könnölä......................2

2. Micro-meso-macro. From the heritage of the Oracle to foresight, Alacs Peter....5

3. Tentative considerations about the assessment of panel-based foresight methods:

Lessons from focus groups in social research, Arnaldi Simon.............................7

4. Experiencing Futures, Baerten Nik.......................................................................9

5. Foresight in the Nordic Countries' Research and Innovation Councils,

Dannenmand Per Andersen and Borup Mads.....................................................12

6. Towards a New Foresight Approach for the ICT Development Process. De

Marez L. and K. De Moor...................................................................................15

7. Can Foresight influence policy and social change? De Smedt P........................18

8. The Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities,

Dingli A...............................................................................................................21

9. Foresight of Innovative Energy Technologies through a Linguistic Multicriteria

Approach, Doukas H., Papadopoulou A.G. and J. Psarras.................................24

10. Constructing Futures: a Social Constructionist Perspective on Foresight

Methodology, Fuller T. and K. Loogma.............................................................26

11. Between Certainity and Uncertainity - Using Qualitative and Quantitative

Methods, Gašparíková J......................................................................................27

12. Foresight and Innovation: How far can we see?, Gazdík I.................................28

13. Constructing the Future of the Web 2.0 - Exploring the Seeds of Change as a

System, Glassey O..............................................................................................30

14. The Dialogue of Cultures, Civilizations, and Religions: Tools for an

Interdependent World, Groff L...........................................................................32

15. Models of Change, with Key Examples From the Future Studies Field: A

Foresight Tool to Aid Policy-Makers, Groff L...................................................33

National Technical University of Athens School of Rural and Surveying EngineeringDept. of Geography and Regional Planning

Athens 2007

16. The Lack of Transition Strategy and Development Strategy of Serbia,

Hadži M...............................................................................................................35

17. Integrating GIS and Fuzzy Logic for Scenario Analysis in Foresight,

Hatzichristos T. and M. Giaoutzi........................................................................37

18. Do U.S. and EU-15 Countries Meet the Kyoto Targets till 2012? Exploring

Numbers and Narratives for U.S. and European Energy and Climate Policies,

Haukioja T...........................................................................................................38

19. Thinking about the Futures for Universities: Alternative visions for the EU,

ERIA and universities, Havas A.........................................................................41

20. Exploring seeds of change within the actualization process of future images for

Hungary, Hideg E., Nováky E. and A. Vág........................................................43

21. The Futures Window, a new method for presenting visual weak signals in

organizational environment, Hiltunen E.............................................................46

22. Perspectives in Understanding Weak Signals, Holopainen M............................49

23. Experts and Disciplines – Sources of Change and the Construction of Visions in

Foresight Studies, Jørgensen U...........................................................................53

24. A Social Shaping of Technology (SST) Approach to Technology Foresight,

Jørgensen S.M., U. Jørgensen and C. Clausen....................................................54

25. Constructing and Deconstructing Visions in Foresight Activities: Theory and

Experiences, Jørgensen S.M. and D. Grosu........................................................55

26. Introducing Seed of Change: Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future,

Kaivo-oja J. and S. Mendoca..............................................................................57

27. Towards a Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight

Studies, Karlsen J................................................................................................61

28. Scenarios for Setting up Research Priorities, Klusacek K..................................64

29. The Role of Support Group in the Polish National Foresight Programme,

Kononiuk A., Magruk A. and Nazarko J...........................................................66

30. Technology Foresight as a Policy Tool for Sustainable Development in the

Knowledge Society - Lessons from the Greece 2001-2021 Foresight Exercise ,

Koukios E............................................................................................................67

31. The Greek Technology Foresight: The Case of Healthcare, Health and Quality

of Life - Links among Technology Assessment(TA), Foresight and Strategic

Planning, Koukoumas N. and D. Agrafiotis.......................................................70

32. Learning Theory and its Application in Foresight Practice, KRISTÓF T..........74

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33. Dialogues on Air Pollution: An Asian Example, Kroeze C. and S. Stalpers......77

34. Different Approaches of Pattern Management in Foresight, Kuosa T................78

35. Management's ability to foresee emerging signs of a strategic change, Lehtinen-

Toivola A............................................................................................................81

36. Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight, Lüdeke M..........83

37. Developing Participatory Foresight Systems and Activities at Regional Level

Administration in Finland: How to Boost the Implementation of the Lisbon

Strategy at the Regional and National Levels in Europe?, Marttinen J. and

Kaivo-oja J..........................................................................................................86

38. Conflict and foresight: Consensus and Negotiation, Mérida F. and Borch K.....89

39. Scenario as a Tool for Integrated Coastal Zone and Water Resources

Management: The Case of Rhodes and Naxos in Greece, Mexa A., Kallis G.,

Hatzilacou D. and H. Coccosis...........................................................................90

40. e-Government 2015: exploring m-Government scenarios, between technology

driven experiments and citizen-centric implications, Misuraca G......................92

41. Regional Foresight: A Mix Methodology for the Identification and Analysis of

Future Strategic Sectors, Morato A. and M. Escobar.........................................96

42. “Exploring Cultural Frame Change: Towards a Capacity to Co-Create the Next

Form of Human Civilization by Modeling the Character and Evolution of

Human Consciousness and Culture”, Nelson R..................................................98

43. The Slovak Foresight Exercise, Nemcova E.....................................................102

44. Russian industry-energy foresight: project and first results, Nikitaev V. and G.

Afanasyev..........................................................................................................104

45. The Future of Stem Cell Research, Plougmann P.............................................107

46. The Viewpoint of Anticipation, Poli R.............................................................110

47. Will Entrepreneurship, Knowledge Management and Foresight Emerge in a

system?, Puga A................................................................................................111

48. Utilisation of Delphi based Future Information in Agri-Technology Foresight -

A Case of Modern Technology in Finnish Agriculture, Rikkonen P................114

49. Meta-framing: The Art of Putting Weak Signals in Perspective, Rossel P......117

50. Metaphor as a Method, Ruttas-Kuttim R..........................................................118

51. Development of Foresight Methodology in Poland Case Study: Machine

Construction and Maintenance, Sacio A. Szymanska, Mazurkiewicz A. and B.

Poteralska..........................................................................................................119

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52. Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology, Sapio B. and Nicolo E.......120

53. Tool Transfer, Appropriate Adaptation? The Use of Delphi in National Science

and Technology Foresight Exercises, Saritas O. and M. Keenan.....................121

54. Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight, Saritas O., L. Pace and P.

Stalpers..............................................................................................................122

55. Foresight Lacquer: Layering Futures Tools to Amplify Impact (Case Study),

Schultz W..........................................................................................................123

56. Business Wargaming: Developing Foresight within a Strategic Simulation,

Schwarz J.O.......................................................................................................124

57. On Contexts and Their Dynamics, Simon K.H.................................................125

58. Willingness-to-Use Models for Climate Policy, Stalpers S..............................127

59. Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: A Methodological

Framework, Stratigea A. and M. Giaoutzi........................................................128

60. Interplay of Narratives and Calculations in the Scenario- building Process.

Based on the Experience of the “Estonia 2010” Project, Terk E......................129

61. Considering Foresight as an Intervention within an already Existing Future

Oriented Debate: Renewing the Approach for the Design, Implementation and

Evaluation of Foresights ?, Treyer S.................................................................131

62. The Future in the Stars – European Policy Making and the Exploration of the

Future, Van der Ven K......................................................................................132

63. Linking Futures Research with Management Science: Improving Innovation and

Strategy Processes within Companies, Van der Duin P....................................134

64. Foresight as a Means to Modulate Socio-technical Trajectories: Learning from

Science and Technology Studies, Warnke P.....................................................137

65. Philosophical tools for dealing with unexpected events and developments, Wolf

F. O....................................................................................................................140

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FROM ORACLES TO DIALOGUE - Exploring New Ways to Explore the FutureCOST A22 Final Conference

9-11 July 2007 - Athens

National Technical University of Athens School of Rural and Surveying EngineeringDept. of Geography and Regional Planning

Athens 2007

1. Linking methods for agile foresight and roadmapping processes at VTT, Ahlqvist T.M, A. Eerola, S. Kivissari R. Koivisto and T. Könnölä

Toni Ahlqvist, Annele Eerola1, Sirkku Kivisaari, Raija Koivisto & Totti Könnölä

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (in alphabetical order)

Abstract

Introduction and focus of the paper

Along the gradual paradigm shift in the innovation research and policy, from linear to systemic innovation models, contract research organisations have faced major challenges to reorganise also their foresight and roadmapping activities. The paper examines this shift and consequent responses at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT is the largest research contract organisation in the Northern Europe, providing high-end technology solutions and innovation services, and organising and participating in a number of strategic roadmapping processes that provide improved contextual understanding of future developments, strengthened networking and crystallised visions for joint action. This paper examines the design and implementation of recent VTT roadmapping processes that typically apply and link diverse methods to best respond to case-specific roadmap expectations. The paper also develops a coherent theoretical framework for contextual roadmapping processes (Phaal et al., 2001) in view of the needs of contract research organisations.

Theoretical framework

The systemic understanding of innovation processes (Smits & Kuhlmann, 2004) has challenged the conventional technocratic technology driven forecasting and roadmapping practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that embrace diverse perspectives on the formation of shared knowledge about the alternative futures of technological and societal developments (Ahlqvist, 2005; Dannemand et al, 2007; Eerola & Joergensen, 2002; Könnölä et al, 2006). Roadmapping of technological advances has extended from the identification of emerging new technologies to the understanding of the interactions of diverse technological systems, product and service applications, market mechanisms and societal drivers. The focus has shifted from the production of predictive technology lists and objective fact finding to the 1 Address/contact information of the corresponding author: Dr. Annele Eerola, Senior Research Scientist, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Betonimiehenkuja 3, Espoo, P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT, Finland; phone: +358 20 7224247; fax: +358 20 7227006; email: annele.eerola@vtt.fi

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elicitation of expert opinions on alternative future pathways and to the principles of transparency, accountability and inclusiveness. The clients also expect diverse outcomes in view of the support for RTD resource allocation, networking and visions for joint action. The readiness to adjust roadmapping process to case-specific conditions becomes crucial in the design and implementation of such roadmapping processes. A useful framework for designing and analysing such processes is provided by the SECI model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation (Nonaka, 1994).

Empirical case studies and findings

The paper examines the ways in which various methodological tools and approaches have been linked and applied in the recent roadmapping processes conducted by VTT in different organisational and sectoral contexts. The roadmapping processes examined in the paper focus on the future developments of construction, transport, energy, security, ICT and water technologies. The experiences from VTT roadmapping processes are described and analysed in view of the organisational and methodological challenges that can be identified with the help of the theoretical framework. The findings suggest that the management of roadmapping processes benefit from the conceptual work and theory-aided process design. In particular, systematic roadmapping practices that facilitate the consideration of case specific conditions and the flexible application of different methods – building on interactive workshop methods, online generation, elaboration and assessment of expert ideas and opinions, and analytic back-office methods – are easier to plan and implement when using consistent and coherent concepts and theoretical framework. Furthermore, the experiences indicate that roadmapping management in contract research organisations is prone to enjoy tensions produced by diverse policy and business driven expectations on roadmapping processes and results.

Key words: foresight, innovation policy, technology roadmapping, linking methods

ReferencesAhlqvist, T., 2005. From information society to biosociety? On societal waves, developing key technologies, and new professions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 501–519.Dannemand Andersen, P. Borup, M. Borch, K. Kaivo-oja, J. Eerola, A. Finnbjörnsson, T., Øverland, E.; Eriksson, A., Malmér, T. Mölleryd, B. (2007). Foresight in Nordic Innovation Systems. Summary report of the Nordic Innovation Centre project number P04270 (forthcoming NICe publication)Eerola, A. & Holst-Jorgensen, B. (2002): Technology Foresight in the Nordic Countries. A report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development. Risoe-R-1362(EN).

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Könnölä, T., Brummer, V. and Salo, A., 2006. Diversity in Foresight - Insights from the Fostering of Innovation Ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming).Nonaka, I. 1994. A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 14-37.Phall, R., Farrukh, C. & Probert, D. 2001. Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 14/11/01.Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S., 2004, The Rise of Systemic Instruments in Innovation Policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. 1(1): 4-32.

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2. Micro-meso-macro. From the heritage of the Oracle to foresight, Alacs Peter

Alacs Peterpeter.alacs@uni-corvinus.hu

Corvinus University Budapest - HU

Abstract

Apparently the question whether foresight is part of science or rather a kind of practice has major consequences on all of the processes it involves. It is however quite astonishing that for the same reason one certainly comes to the conclusion that foresight cannot be classified in any of the above categories. Although foresight applies readily scientific methods it obviously fails to meet some basic scientific criteria like testability. Also, foresight cannot be a practice in classical terms, because there is no instantaneous feedback to enable setting up a clear goal for its use. The reason for this special situation is however not the fact that foresight deals with future, but the fact that the foresight process results in providing those basic logical elements that help the stakeholders to make conclusion for the future and helping to make decisions in this manner.

This basic feature is probably its main heritage from the Oracle. Foresight cannot be testified by the future, but by its reasonable conclusions. Therefore the main focus of foresight should be the clarity of its methods.

The three-level approach to clarify the foresight process is inspired by the three-level approach of the theoretical advance in science, the so called ladder of theoretical advance. In science on the first stage the phenomenon is discovered and described. Aggregates and narratives are used in its methodology, that give simple rules and some exceptions are also accepted. On the second stage the phenomenon is specified in detail. This means a definite increase in complexity, but also in uncertainty. On the final stage rules, relationships between specified elements and time are revealed, the dynamics of the system is defined. The complexity is decreased to a certain, reasonable level. The main factors for uncertainty are also dealt here.

Ladder of theoretical advance (in science):1. Work with aggregates: discovering phenomenon.2. Look behind aggregates: discovering the structures behind the

studied phenomenon.3. Definition of the dynamics: discovering how the system works,

understanding the phenomenon.

The three stages of this ladder are also referred as the roughness or the complexity of its variables as macro-, micro- and meso-level.

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Foresight is however not science. It just aims to provide useful conclusions for the future to any stakeholder or decision maker. A reasonable process for the foresight activity should therefore consist of the following three steps. On the first stage the knowledge should be identified as a basis for the foresight activity. This should also include the state of the art scientific achievements. On the second stage this knowledge should be studied involving the stakeholders. The stakeholders also possess knowledge that could have been used on the first stage, on the second stage though lack of knowledge gains a more significant role: namely the possible aims of the foresight activity. It is not obvious neither a necessity that the missing knowledge could be bridged, nor a logical detour could be found, but obviously this challenge is assessed to the foresight activity. On the final stage these logical operations are constructed in one aggregated view, creating visions.

We see that the foresight activity climbs the ladder of theoretical levels in the reverse direction:

- Meso level: assessing the available knowledge. Identifying the seeds of change. Forecasting.

- Micro level: studying the knowledge in detail, how it is distributed among the stakeholders, where lack of knowledge, lack of information appears. Main foresight activity.

- Macro level: constructing a general view that helps to deduce the rules for the specific situations. Visioning.

Uncertainty, complexity and time are dealt differently on each level. On the meso-level both narratives and numbers are used to assess the knowledge. On micro level these two types of knowledge are not integrated, rather split or factored. Integration is possible only on macro level by narrative tools.

We show that the three level approach to foresight not only extends the foresight activity, but also clarifies its methods. We shall also realize that the foresight should be a continuous activity as our knowledge changes. However this is only possible if is methods are clear and transparent to all of the stakeholders.

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3. Tentative considerations about the assessment of panel-based foresight methods: Lessons from focus groups in social research, Arnaldi Simon

Simone Arnaldisimonearnaldi@gmail.com

Istituto Jacques MaritainVia San Francesco 58 - I-34133 TRIESTE – IT

Abstract

Panels are widely used in foresight both to produce future visions and images, and to elaborate present-day decisions and action plans. However, in assessing panel-based processes, little attention has been dedicated to social processes occurring during group discussion and to bias they may generate.

The aim of the presentation is to establish a connection between groups in foresight and focus groups and to critically assess foresight panels drawing from existing sociological analysis of the latter in order to identify potential bias in foresight panels.

The starting point of the presentation is a short and non-systematic review of some examples of existing literature to observe the diffusion and features of panel-based methods in European foresight and scenario-based studies, to highlight strengths that make such methods successful and that favoured their extensive use, and to consider some of the assessment criteria which are proposed. Three types of documents are considered: existing reviews of foresight and scenario studies, existing researches, foresight handbooks. Regarding assessment criteria, it is noticed how the attention of commentators seem to focus on inputs and outputs of the process, focusing either on the characteristics of panellists involved in the exercise (inputs) or the methodological quality, relevance, likelihood, and coherence of the representations of the future which emerge as a result of the exercise.

The second part of the presentation attempts at delineating an evaluation framework not focused on inputs and outputs of the foresight panels, but rather on the social and communication processes occurring in the panel during the foresight exercise. Panels in foresight are assumed to be task-oriented groups, i.e. small groups which are deliberately created to perform a task. Work groups, training groups, focus groups, etc. are all examples of task-oriented groups.

Drawing from the existing literature, social interaction in task-oriented groups is examined and four different types of dynamics are highlighted: communication, which responds to rules which are decided explicitly and formally with the creation of the group; negotiation, which is stimulated

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through established rules of communication in order to maximise those changes in members’ behaviour, competences, and activities which are functional to the accomplishment of the task; change, which is maximised through the process of negotiation; leadership, which is either exogenously imposed or explicitly agreed upon by group members.

An analysis of foresight panel and focus groups features according to these four dimensions is used to support the inclusion of both these group-based methods in the task-oriented groups’ category.

Following the indication of some prominent authors in the literature, three categories of potential biases are mentioned: (1) centred on the context; (2) centred on the moderator/researcher; (3) centred on cognitive processes. Then, the third one is especially examined and three categories of processes are mentioned: (1) association of meanings to the words and expressions used by the participants; (2) information mining and organisation; (3) judgement and evaluation of the contents of interaction with other participants and with the moderator.

On the basis of this bias categorization, the closing of the presentation is a call for a reflexive effort in foresight aimed at a better understand of how representations of the future, images and visions are generated by group interaction. This commitment might require support from disciplines like sociology and social psychology to better frame the communicative and cognitive processes occurring in panels.

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4. Experiencing Futures, Baerten Nik

Nik Baertennik@pantopicon.be

Nicole Rijkens-Klomp & Michael van Lieshout

Abstract

Foresight’ and ‘(en)visioning’: two terms related to futures studies that revolve around the metaphorical image of an eye gazing into the distances of time. Ironically however, the majority of contemporary foresight activities show themselves from a much less visual side.Texts, diagrams, schemes, post-its, models and lots of verbal discussion still take centre stage in the field. As such many future scenarios and visions remain abstract constructs, often at a distance from those developing them as well as those using, learning from or reflecting upon them. In today’s world of foresight and (en)visioning, imaging and imagining seem to be much less present. There where they do play a part, it is mostly in terms of (unidirectional) communication-like end-products, while very little attention is paid to their role within the context of the participatory foresight and (en)visioning processes.And this while foresight often starts from the basic premise that not only today’s choices shape the future, but our choices are also shaped by the ways in which we think about the future and ‘picture’ it, whether before our physical eyes or our mind’s eye.

Envelopes of experienceWhen we look at something, in a way we dialogue with it. What happens to that critical relationship when we try to enhance looking at something to the point where it starts to resemble being in something, inside an envelope of experience? How does it affect the process of participatory foresight and (en)visioning when we design and expose participants to various possibilities to experience the future today from a variety of angles?Albeit an important one, the visual is but one dimension in which possible or wishful futures can be rendered ‘experiencable’ and thus brought closer to people who wish to shape, learn from or anticipate upon the future. Professional experience learns that both in terms of the overall participatory process as well as in terms of quality of content there is much added value to be gained from exploiting ways to bring future contexts to life so that they can be experienced in less abstract, more tangible, more empathic ways than those that are common practice in traditional foresight.This paper will address the various roles, added values and possible pitfalls of ‘making future scenarios experiencable’.

Added values

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There are various reasons why ‘futures experiences’ deserve more attention in participatory foresight practice. First of all, enabling people to see, to feel, to experience what future scenarios might be like, lowers the scenarios’ level of abstraction, thereby facilitating the uptake of the integrated, multi-perspectival information they are designed to portray. As such, not only their threshold is lowered, enabling a wider range of people to participate in the process, but their usefulness and usage within both strategic and policy-related contexts is also significantly enhanced.Furthermore, different ways of translating a future scenario or vision into an experience for others mirror the diversity of perceptions, impressions, interpretations, inclinations of people towards these futures. As such the plurality of ideas concerning the future can be exploited at a more profound level (cf. mapping diversity). Moreover, both contrasts and similarities between scenarios can be portrayed in clearer ways.Participatory, multi-stakeholder foresight is also done with an aim, an aim that often needs to find appropriate output targeted at a specific audience. In this respect, designed futures experiences can offer solutions tailored to the needs of a variety of audiences, such as for example different stakeholders, future generations (youngsters of today), elderly, minorities, etc.

Targeted experiencesFutures experiences ought to be seen as designated tools to fulfil a variety of roles throughout participatory foresight trajectories, rather than as mere aesthetic by-products. These can range from inspiring participants and reducing cognitive load for scenario interpretation, to serving as mnemonic aids, triggers for critical responses to enhance and fine tune scenarios and visions, to enhance commitment and motivation for action.For example, in the preparatory stages leading up to a participatory futures exploration or (en)visioning exercise, several experience-based methods and techniques can be employed to gather valuable information from participants with respect to their experience of and relationship to the context at hand, their personal fears, wishes, expectations, dreams, nightmares, to inform and inspire the process and its later stages, (e.g. ethnography-inspired methods, cultural probes, perception mapping etc.).During the main participatory trajectory itself, tools such as well-crafted image-carousels, storyboards, visualized metaphors, inspirational videos, artefacts etc. can help participants to stretch their minds, open up their imagination, think the unthinkable, change perspective, angle of approach, see new and existing relationships in a different light etc.Later, future scenarios and visions as a whole can be communicated via a wide variety of futures experiences, e.g. short movies describing a day in the life of a person/product/place/... set in the future context at hand, fictional news bulletins, radio interviews, newspapers, mattepaintings, future artefacts, theatre plays, graphic novels/visual stories, future diaries, but to name a few. In similar ways lessons learnt on how to anticipate upon the future, answers to the big ‘what if?’ questions, how to take up challenges in terms of opportunities and threats can be visualized, made ‘experiencable’, thereby stimulating the building of commitment and common ground at a more profound, less abstract level. As such the

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virtual path of action towards new solutions for a successful future can become shorter, more direct.Aside from its many benefits, designing futures experiences also has its pitfalls. Visualizing futures or turning aspects of them into ‘experiencable’ form, can be at times an exercise in walking the tightrope between offering a basis for inspiration and reflection and involuntarily hammering home a biased viewpoint.Last but not least, the creation of futures experiences does not end with the design of a set of objects or usage of particular media. Part of the experience is the contextual envelope both in terms of space, time and content at which these productions meet their audience, at which the participants start interacting with them mentally or physically. Hence the moment when the futures are portrayed and used, interacted with, requires equally careful crafting. As such, also the process design belongs to the experience itself.

Final noteThis is but a minor illustration of how Pantopicon regards and employs design-based thinking (e.g. design research and experience design) as an extremely valuable asset in its approach to participatory foresight and (en)visioning. Both in terms of philosophy as well as methodologically the field and attitude of design (thinking), as well as insights from fields such as anthropology, sociology, cultural studies, psychology and marketing contribute to Pantopicon’s approach. The paper will elaborate further upon these links and the paper’s line of argumentation will be illustrated via examples from within the international foresight and and (en)visioning community as well as by tapping into Pantopicon’s broad range of professional experiences in participatory foresight and (en)visioning activities spanning both the public and the private realm. Finally, the paper will also make recommendations for a research agenda on the topic of designing and using experiences of future scenarios within the field.

Keywordsforesight, (en)visioning, participation, experience, design, visualization

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5. Foresight in the Nordic Countries' Research and Innovation Councils, Dannenmand Per Andersen and Borup Mads

Per Dannemand Andersen*) and Mads BorupRisø National Laboratory, DTU, Denmark

Thorvald FinnbjörnssonRANNIS, Iceland

Thomas MalmérRoyal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences, Sweden

*) Corresponding author: per.dannemand@risoe.dk, phone: +45 4677 5100, fax: +45 4677 5199.

Abstract

National research and innovation councils are potentially important stakeholders of foresight projects and programmes. In recent years, the national research and innovation council systems have in many countries been through significant changes. The changes reflect a number of development tendencies in the societal role and identity of science and research in general and in policy and governance of science and innovation more specifically. First, the complexity of knowledge production has increased significantly in the recent decades (Gibbons et.al. 1994, Nowotny et.al. 2001). Second, strategic turn of science and knowledge production has been significant. Knowledge production has become the central economical driving force and a strategic resource of nations. Hence the notion knowledge society has occurred (Knorr-Cetina, 1999). Third, the future-orientation is stronger than earlier (Brown et. al. 2000). Fourth, increased business and industry-orientation of research and science has occurred. This is e.g. reflected in the so-called triple-helix model of the interaction between research, industry and governmental efforts (Etzkowitz&Leydesdorff, 1997). Fifth, increased internationalisation and introduction of an over-national level in the governance of science and research are challenging research councils. Not least the developments of the European Union are currently important (Barré et.al., 1997; Meulen, 2002; Borrás, 2004).

Strategy and foresight processes in research and innovation councils have not in particular been analysed in this international literature. However, a few studies have been reported (Salo&Salmenkaita, 2002; Salo, Gustafsson, Kaakkolammi and Gustafsson, 2004; Dannemand Andersen & Borup, 2006). In order to add to this literature, the aim of this paper is to twofold. First, it is the aim to describe national research and innovation councils and similar systems and organisations in the five Nordic countries - as well as on transnational Nordic level. Second, it is the aim to describe and analyse the use of foresight and similar strategy activities within these research and innovation council systems.

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The paper is one of the results from a recently finalised network project, Nordic Foresight Forum, financed by Nordic Innovation Centre and with participation of 15 partners from academia and governmental institutions. The study is based in desk studies; open ended interviews with key stakeholders such as council chairmen, program directors and key civil servants; and information from participants in the project.

Concerning the first aim of the paper, three conclusions can be drawn across all five Nordic countries:

Major reorganising of the research and innovation funding and advisory system in all five countries and on Nordic level has taken place during the latest 5 – 7 years

The changes have resulted in a clearer distinction between independent research on the one side and strategic research and innovation on the other hand.

The changes have resulted in increased focus on innovation oriented activities.

Furthermore, the study confirms that there is an expressed need for foresight in the Nordic research and innovation council systems. But the needs vary considerably between the different parts and units of the national research and innovation council systems. The variation concerns main issues like type of subjects for foresight exercises; who are going to be involved; and who are the results going to be communicated to. This diversity in needs can make it hard to find common ground for one, general foresight activity in the research and innovation council systems. A few units of the systems, typically basic research oriented research councils, express that they do not need foresight.

The need or objective for foresight is not directly as a tool of prioritization and funding decisions. Instead, foresight and similar strategic intelligence approaches are expected to be useful as background analysis tools that inform and support decision making. Hence, the role for foresight is rather to produce not-binding guidance and advice than to directly take part in the decision making. Despite this, it might in specific areas of research or innovation, be feasible and fruitful to carry out foresight exercises that lead to recommendations directly used for prioritisations within these specific areas.

Besides activities labelled “foresight”, a considerable amount of other strategy development activities appear in the research and innovation council systems. Many of these have similarities to foresight for example concerning creation of visions about future developments, communication between actors, and identification of important areas to support. Some of the methodologies, or strategy development tools, used are Identification of core areas, Visionary areas, Innovation accelerating platforms, Dialog meetings, Analyses-based discussion, Coordination networks, Strategy panels, Identification of white-spots. The paper concludes that the role and function of such strategy activities are important to understand when assessing the potentials for foresight.

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6. Towards a New Foresight Approach for the ICT Development Process. De Marez L. and K. De Moor

Lieven De MarezKatrien De Moor

Dept. Of Communication Sciences, MICT-IBBTGhent University

Korte Meer 7-9-119000 Ghent, Belgium

Lieven.DeMarez@Ugent.beKatrienR.DeMoor@Ugent.be

Abstract

Context: today’s ICT environment

In today’s ICT environment, developers and designers are confronted with the uncertainty of a future that holds an array of possibilities. They need to find ways to deal with this uncertainty and to anticipate for future trends and expectations. At the same time, concepts like ‘user expectations’, ‘user experience’ or ‘Quality of Experience’ (QoE) have gained importance, as we see that ‘the end user makes decisions about purchasing based on the perceived QoE (and many other elements)’2. Users are acquiring a central role in development processes, as many authors stress the significance of taking the user, his expectations and his experiences into account when developing and evaluating devices or applications.

Over the last decade, a number of important trends have been manifesting themselves within this environment: a growing convergence, an overload of ‘multi-featured’ innovations, shortening product life cycles, increased competition, re-inventions and unexpected uses of ICTs. As a result, the current ICT-market became a fast changing market, in which important steps of the development process are being skipped and in which we are confronted with a growing number of failing innovations. Considered as one of the major causes for these failures is the lack of an adequate prior-to-launch insight in the user and his (Quality of Experience-) expectations. Problem is that ICT development is lacking a comprehensive approach of the QoE-concept and a substantial foresight tradition. In the few cases in which foresight methods are used in ICT development, it is done very inaccurately and fragmentary. The challenge

2 VAN MOORSEL, A. (2001). Metrics for the Internet Age: Quality of Experience and Quality of Business, Fifth Performability Workshop, 16 september 2001. (p. 8)

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What is needed is a new kind of ‘foresight approach’, that allows the ICT sector to develop for good user experiences and to anticipate for future expectations. Tackling this challenge, should start with addressing two important issues.

On the one hand, QoE poses a conceptual problem: in order to anticipate for a high Quality of Experience, we first need a clear definition. Until today, QoE has a different meaning for different stakeholders: some regard it as usability, yet others compare it with Quality of Service. Within the context of the three year IBBT3 project QoE4, we constructed a comprehensive conceptual model of Quality of Experience, based upon input from both desk research and an expert panel study (n:12). In this model ‘Quality of Experience’ is considered as a puzzle of 5 interrelated building blocks, each with its own sub-dimensions.

In second instance we have the methodological question how to develop a new foresight inspired approach that is suited for prior-to-launch measurement of all these QoE-dimensions. Literature reviews as well as the expert panel revealed a number of suggestions for future QoE measurement. One thing we learned is that the measurement of QoE should be divided into three distinct phases. For the last two phases, development teams can choose between a wide range of existing methods. The prior-to-launch phase however (which comes first) is often ignored and appears to be methodologically under-developed, despite the importance of gaining insight into user’s expectations and needs for the future.

Within this contribution, we would like to elaborate on how the conceptual QoE-model can be a starting point for a new foresight approach within the ICT development process. Parallel, we also make a broad scan of existing methodologies from several disciplines, on their suiteness to measure and anticipate for the various dimensions of QoE. Final aim is to create a methodological flow for more accurate, future-oriented and user-centric QoE-measurement. Evidently, the first ‘methodologically under-developed’ phase of the process, carries out our special interest.

Potential benefits of a foresight approach?

The benefits of taking a foresight approach within the ICT development process are legion. We envision two important benefits: Firstly, the prior-to-launch detection of relevant QoE dimensions will lead to more user-centric development of new technologies (reducing the number of failures). Secondly, the search for a new approach could lead to a further diffusion of foresight thinking, within the specific context of ICT development and to an improvement of the existing foresight processes

3 Interdisciplinary Institute for BroadBand Technology (Founded by the Flemish Government) (www.ibbt.be) 4 QoE (Quality of Experience) is a 3-year project (2005-2008) that aims to study and develop techniques that are able to match future user quality expectations in heterogeneous environments and a secure usage context where resources (such as bandwith and battery power) are limited and the environment is dynamic in nature (https://projects.ibbt.be/qoe/)

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within this particular context. At the same time, the scanning of existing methods will expose methodological gaps and will identify opportunities for the development of new or adjusted methods. Clearly, one of these opportunities is more participatory approach of the first foresight-phase in the Quality of Experience measurement flow. To date, the user is still often forgotten as a stakeholder and neglected in prior-to-launch research. It is our ambition to illustrate how this user participation can be better integrated into this foresight process for ICT development (e.g. for the detection of user-relevant QoE-dimensions and translation to a developer-relevant terminology).

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7. Can Foresight influence policy and social change? De Smedt P.

Peter De Smedtpeter.desmedt@dar.vlaanderen.be

SVR - Research Centre of the Flemish GovernmentBoudewijnlaan 30, B-1000 Brussels - BE

Abstract

A society is characterized by the problems and solutions on the political agenda. Policy changes are the results from a process of iterative interactions between three streams of activity: defining the problem, identifying solutions, and achieving commitment for action. Policy problems and solutions are social constructions - they are not simply objective givens but are the result of social processes (Schneider & Ingram, 1997). Change in policy and policy implementation involves the cognitive and normative beliefs of stakeholders, the resources available to them, and the coalition building for supporting a particular image of the problem and its possible solutions (Sabatier & Jenkins-Smith, 1993).

Most policies are complex and dynamic in nature. External and internal developments change continuously, causing shifts in problem perception and priority setting. Often it is not clear what the real causes are and different competing policy options are on the table. In this context, a policy is defined as a formal statement giving the relationship between information input and resulting decision flows. Specific policy measures and instruments have an indirect and incremental impact on the desired policy change. Developments in science and technology, for example, have a strong potential to influence social change. There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of technology and scientific knowledge varies widely between countries. Societies differ, economies differ, and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue (Timmermans, 2001.

Policy change can be described as a series of intellectual activities embedded in a broader social process. Often people believe that policy problems are objective conditions, and that their solutions can be simply identified by determining what the facts are in a given case. This rather naive view of the nature of policy problems fails to recognize that some facts are often interpreted in markedly different ways. Hence, the same policy relevant information can and often does result in conflicting framing of a problem by different stakeholders. This is rather because of competing assumptions for social change than because of inconsistent facts (Dunn, 2004). The process of policy change does not begin with clearly articulated problems, but with a set of diffuse problems and issues. To achieve legitimate recommendations for policy change, cooperative strategies for knowledge production are required.

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Foresight aims to identify opportunities and areas of vulnerability in complex strategic issues. Its application ranges from strategy development to the raising of the general public’s awareness of developments that are likely to influence society’s future. Common to all use of Foresight, however, is the structuring of knowledge about complex issues into manageable elements so that these issues can be understood better and more informed decisions can be made (Fuller et al., 2006). Foresight can be practised in a number of ways. Examples include:

* Scenario analysis: the development of descriptions of possible future situations in order to anticipate and prepare for upcoming developments.* Participatory methods: examples are Delphi studies and focus groups where respectively expert and non-expert opinion on a specific issue is collected and analysed.* Computer simulations: the representation of possible future situations through computer modelling in order to investigate how present developments might turn out in the future.* Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: the analysis of technological innovation, its application, and its impacts for use in policy-making contexts.

Foresight can contribute to this process of knowledge building and stakeholder involvement within a Foresight process may be facilitated by conceptualising the future as open and dilemmatic, and recognizing ambivalence as legitimate (Höijer et al., 2006). Clearly Foresight does not only deal with the collections of data and models, but it also involves the interaction of stakeholders, their ideas, values and capacities for possible action (De Smedt, 2006). Foresight can compose a common language among stakeholders based on robust evidence. Hence it is essential that the evidence within the recommendations for the decision-making should be perceived to be robust and that stakeholders feel empowered by the robust recommendations.

When a Foresight exercise, as a possible policy instrument, is able to reframe an issue in such a way that it mobilizes stakeholders, it becomes able to increase the sense of urgency concerning the policy problem. This is a system that provides opportunities to drive policy decisions till, ultimately, the resource advantage of the formal system is overcome and a new equilibrium with widened array of interest has been established. In this paper we propose that Foresight can influence policy change by redefining problems and establishing new policy networks with a shared vision towards the future and commitment for action.

Keywords: Policy Change, Stakeholder Involvement, Foresight Practice and Impact

References

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De Smedt, P. 2006. Interactions between Foresight and decision-making. Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making – Seville 28-29 September.

Dunn, W. 2004. Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction. 3rd Edition. Prentice Hall.

Fuller, T., P. De Smedt & D. Rothman, 2006. Advancing Foresight methodology through networked conversation. Proceedings. of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making – Seville 28-29 September.

Höijer, B., R. Lidskog & Y. Uggla 2006. Facing dilemmas: sense-making and decision-making in late modernity. Futures 38: 350–366.

Sabatier, P.A., & H. Jenkins-Smith 1993. Policy Change and Learning: An Advocacy Coalition Approach. Boulder: Westview Press.

Schneider, A.L. & H. Ingram 1997. Policy Design for Democracy. Lawrence, Kan. University Press of Kansas.

Timmermans, A. 2001. Arenas as Institutional Sites for Policymaking: Patterns and Effects in Comparative Perspective. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 3: 311–337.

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8. The Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities, Dingli A.

Sandra M. Dinglisandra.m.dingli@um.edu.mt

Institution: University of MaltaThe Edward de Bono Institute

Msida - MSD06 -MT

Abstract

Why should policy makers and decision makers be interested in foresight activities? Are researchers involved in foresight activities aware of the decision making processes their outcomes are intended to influence? How can researchers ensure that their work is effectively communicated to key decision makers? How can the results of foresight activities be communicated to key persons to ensure that action is taken to implement key recommendations? Should dissemination and implementation strategies be built into the design phase of foresight activities?

Dissemination strategies play a key role in EU projects which recognise that the results of efforts towards which funding is granted should not be limited to the participants of a particular project and do not end when the time-frame for a particular project elapses. There is, however, very sparse information available which relates directly to foresight activities in the literature on dissemination and implementation. This paper therefore draws on a number of other sources such as media studies, marketing and strategy, and it applies key insights that emerge to the dissemination and implementation of the results of foresight initiatives.

The ultimate measure of successful dissemination is action which is evident in behaviour. This could include awareness and acceptance of objectives, increasing knowledge, generating favourable attitudes, the formulation of policy and fostering supportive opinions. However, although awareness and knowledge are often evident outcomes that result from key stakeholder participation in foresight activities, they still remain one step short of action‚ knowledge that does not lead to action is like books left unread on a shelf or unrealised potential left to waste. It is therefore the crucial step between foresight practice and subsequent concrete action that this paper addresses.

Although it cannot be denied that the participation of key stakeholders in a foresight activity tends to facilitate both dissemination and implementation, the design of any foresight exercise should not allow this to be the sole factor directly concerned with dissemination and implementation. Dissemination strategies ought to be tailored to address the groups towards which the findings are addressed‚ and this may often go beyond the acknowledged stakeholders. This paper claims that

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literature sources related to media communications provide a number of strategies from which the dissemination and implementation of foresight activities can stand to benefit.

Some academic research projects, including those that are conducted using foresight methodologies, often risk compromising their efficacy because of fundamental flaws in their dissemination and implementation strategies. Dissemination is important in foresight activities because the results of the exercise are often expected to be diffused (and at times adopted) beyond the immediate stakeholders or participants. It is generally difficult if not impossible to directly involve everyone who is expected to act on results in the foresight activity. Dissemination in itself is not a simple task as it involves the translation of results, often of a scientific nature, into palatable messages for consumption, often by a variety of individuals or groups. For example, a foresight activity on working conditions would generate results that would ideally be disseminated to government, trade unions and private organisations. This may require the formulation of different messages for different target publics. These are factors that ought to be considered in the design and planning stages of a foresight activity.

Dissemination and implementation are closely linked to participation. Widespread participation helps to secure awareness, information and commitment. Without successful implementation, the result of policy, strategy or foresight is merely lost time and frustration in particular for those who have invested funds, time and energy. It is therefore essential that factors that allow for successful implementation are considered during the design and planning process of any foresight initiative.

Implementation involves the results of a foresight activity being followed up with action. It is often the case that excessive focus is placed on getting the foresight process right which in turn detracts from considerations concerning implementation. This does not imply that getting the foresight process right does not play an important role in increasing the chances of successful implementation or follow-up. However political awareness of the possibilities of follow-up action ought to be considered in the design and planning stages. Successful implementation could entail follow up action by persons who were not directly involved in the foresight activity. The inclusion of such considerations in the design and planning process could involve possibilities to involve such persons either directly or indirectly in the foresight activity at an earlier stage to ensure their support when it comes to implementation.

Dissemination and implementation are not two distinct features. A policy paper may be disseminated but not implemented if implementation is resisted or if dissemination is not effectively conducted. Dissemination involves the communication of relevant information to identified persons or organisations through reliable communication channels and should

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ideally make implementation a natural corollary if certain conditions are satisfactorily met. Unfortunately this is not always the case.

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9. Foresight of Innovative Energy Technologies through a Linguistic Multicriteria Approach, Doukas H., Papadopoulou A.G. and J. Psarras

Doukas, H. (1)*, Papadopoulou, A.G. (2) and Psarras, J. (3)(1), (2), (3) Management & Decision Support Systems Laboratory, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of

Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 157 73, Athens GREECE

Abstract

In general, the technology “foresight” programmes can significantly contribute to the policy making, given the importance of research priorities in guiding the direction of Research and Development (R&D) efforts in the energy sector. Indeed, the majority of developed countries have carried out national foresight studies in the last years, in an attempt to harness science and technology based opportunities. In the above framework, the multi criteria methods can be an important supportive tool in the foresight of energy technologies, for the assessment of the technologies’ implications to the economical, the environment and the social framework.

However, selecting appropriate energy options towards a sustainable energy system is inevitably a very complex process, since there exist imprecision and subjectivity of the information associated with this kind of problems, inconsistent and/ or poorly defined goals and the conflicting stakeholder viewpoints. In this context, the concept of MCDM with direct computation on linguistic variables provides the decision makers with the flexibility and capacity to select appropriate energy options towards a sustainable energy system in a straightforward and transparent way, since humans very often use words in natural language instead of numerical measurements when they try to determine vague or imprecise concepts.

To the best of our knowledge, a transparent and interactive multi criteria approach using linguistic variables for the long-term identification of innovative technologies in the energy sector is not present in the literature.

With respect to the above, the aim of this paper is the presentation of an interactive multi criteria approach for foresight of innovative energy technologies, based on linguistic variables. Through this approach, a number of innovative energy technologies are assessed for Greece, taking into account economical, environmental, social and technological aspects and engaging experts and stakeholders from different companies, associations and institutions, in a methodological and consistent way. The results of its application point out the significance of MCDM approaches with direct computation on linguistic variables for supporting the

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discussion of the technological priorities and for guiding the future funding and R&D efforts.

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10. Constructing Futures: a Social Constructionist Perspective on Foresight Methodology, Fuller T. and K. Loogma

Ted Fuller and Krista Loogma

1 Teesside Business School, University of Teesside2 Institute of Educational Research, Tallinn University

SUBMITTED TO FUTURES JOURNAL DEC 2006. DO NOT QUOTEWITHOUT AUTHORS PERMISSION

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the relationship between a particular epistemological perspective and foresight methodology. We draw on a body of social theory concerned with the way that meaning is produced and assimilated by society; specifically, the social construction of knowledge, which is distinguished from its near-neighbour constructivism by its focus on inter-subjectivity. We show that social constructionism, at least in its weak form, seems to be implicit in many epistemological assumptions underlying futures studies. We identify a range of distinctive methodological features inforesight studies, such as time, descriptions of difference, participation and values, and examine these from a social constructionist perspective.

It appears that social constructionism is highly resonant with the way in which knowledge of the future is produced and used. A social constructionism perspective enables a methodological reflection on how, with what legitimacy, and to what social good, knowledge is produced. Foresight that produces symbols without inter-subjective meaning neither anticipates, nor produces futures.

Our conclusion is that foresight is both a social construction, and a mechanism for social construction. Methodologically, foresight projects should acknowledge the socially constructed nature of their process and outcomes as this will lead to greater rigour and legitimacy.

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11. Between Certainity and Uncertainity - Using Qualitative and Quantitative Methods, Gašparíková J.

Jana Gašparíková, Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Abstract

This paper deals with treatment if research concerning future is more multidimensional- it means if it brings more certainity and uncertainity and what understanding of certainity brings this attitude to explicit knowledge about near or far future. Multidimensionality of reality brings in account the oscilation among different diversities in thinking as such and of course between qualitative and quantitative methods.

I would like to apply the use of qualitative and quantitative methods concerning future on the real investigated case with the use of economic issues. I will concentrate on the necessity for using qualitative methods in the area of economic investigation and on the other hand on the necessity to use qualitative methods in forecasting area.. This attitude is in link with statement that economic research also changes in reality and these changes reflect also entire shift to more qualitative research topics. In field of economic theory and reality are more and more important topics concerning development strategy- in this sense is more and more important to concentrate on qualitative methods, the other topic is institutional infrastructure and third topic globalization and regionalization.All investigated topics have also imput on future development in economy and from this point of view I want to deal with forecasted future and forecasted methodology which will help me to construct this future.

The use of qualitative methods in forecasting goes hand in hand with use of qualitative methods in economy Qualitative research in forecasting insists in integrity of its work and variety of its strategies. These strategies reflect the contested and ecclectic nature of qualitative research as an interdisciplinary research that spans a variety of methodological positions.

It is also important to stress the relevance of qualitativ methods for forecasting-qualitative methods must reconstruct not only tendencies in future development of changing economic world, but also the real status of investigated problems.

Qualitative approach involves also some quantitative elements.-it is also necessary to speak about validity of forecasting qualitative methods and reflections of qualitative topics in qualitative dimension in forecasting.

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12. Foresight and Innovation: How far can we see?, Gazdík I.

Igor Gazdík

Abstract

This paper deals with the interplay between foresight and innovation, with specific emphasis on the possibility to foresee to a reasonable degree of accuracy the implications of an innovation. Thus, the research question is: How far can we see in this process? Foresight plays an exceptionally interesting part in combination with innovation because of two affinities:A. Both innovation and foresight are related to the process of change: foresight maps and stimulates it, and innovation makes it happen.B. Essentially the same set of problem-solving methods can facilitate both innovation and foresight.Innovation, i.e. inventions put to use, occurs to a variable degree in any field of human activity: engineering, scientific, social, political, legal, medical, artistic, etc. Viewing innovation as a process of change means that the state of the matters at a given checkpoint differs from the initial or a foregoing state of the matters, due to a human intervention.The indication of direction in the innovative process comes from foresight. Foresight is more than just a set of learned guesses about what the future might (or should) look like. It is, in fact, structured knowledge about the desired final state of matters. It is also a box containing the tools making it possible to foresee various alternative solutions and means for doing so, as well as the means for identifying corrective measures making it possible to neutralize the influence of impediments and obstacles could pop up on the way to the desired state.The structure of the inventive process imposed by the foresight perspective is expected to be so general that it can be formalized. It will be shown in this paper that the formalization can come about spontaneously, at least in the field of engineering, provided innovation is not viewed as a mysterious black box. Rather, the basic approaches to inventing should be considered as independent units of the process. The following reasoning applies.Inventions usually come about in three forms:- Incremental improvements of what is.- Fusion of the features of two or more inventions known previously.- Disruptive inventions, i.e. ones that become the point of departure

for an entirely new paradigm in science, technology or another field of human activity.

The common feature of these three approaches is that initially there is at least one state (invention) available against which comparison is made at a later checkpoint. To understand this reasoning better, it is convenient to introduce the following definitions:D1: A parent invention PT is the initial form applicable to the three manners of inventing as listed in items 1-3 above.D2: A child invention CH is the complete invention following immediately after PT. For something in the field of engineering to be viewed as an invention, three conditions must be fulfilled in view of the patent

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legislature in most countries of the world: it must be new, it must display an inventive step, and it must have industrial applicability. Industrial applicability is here assumed as part of the inventive environment. Fitting novelty and inventive step to definitions D1 and D2 above, generates the formalized structure.To begin with, one PT is available and the process corresponding to item 1 above has generated some CHs. The CHs are located at the same distance from PT, the distance corresponding to first-generation novelty, which is intuitively easy to accept. At the next stage of development, some of the CHs may turn into second generation (later into a nth-generation) PTs by a process implied by item 1 or 2 above. Representing this graphically, a 2-D network begins to appear. The inventive step, when included in this representation, manifests itself as a vertical distance (height) assigned to each CH. These changes the 2-D representation into one in 3 dimensions. In the world of mathematics, these 2D and/or 3-D representations correspond to a structure called lattice.Foresight, which normally includes some forecast of the expected/desired state of matters and structuring of the intellectual and material resources necessary to reach the desired state can be represented in the form of lattice, too. It is known that lattices can be merged, which makes a representation by a single lattice of the inventive process and its pertinent foresight process possible.The advantage of formalizing innovation, i.e. describing it in the language of mathematics, is that the process of innovation can be manipulated while preserving its reliability, (internal and external) validity, and completeness (closure). The latter conclusions follow from the validity and reliability of the underlying mathematics.The major part of the talk will be dedicated to the discussion of the research question of this paper. How far can the development from PT to CH go? Can it continue ad infinitum, or are there some natural limits to it? The answer should manifest itself as some significant change in the morphology of the underlying lattice(s). The situation is simple when considering the lineage initiated by one PT only. At some point, its nth-generation CHs will die out because of decreasing inventive step and growing difficulties to come up with novel solutions (CHs). The situation is more complex when the n-th generation comes from two or more entirely different lineages (item 2 above). Usually the continued development does not follow the path of any of its PTs. More dramatic yet, the disruptive inventions, which necessarily come about as descendants of several (unrelated) initial PTs, most often break the continuity of the development and start a reproductive process of their own. These situations will be illustrated by resorting to known inventions as examples.

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13. Constructing the Future of the Web 2.0 - Exploring the Seeds of Change as a System, Glassey O.

Olivier Glasseyolivier.glassey@unil.ch

Observatoire Science Politqiue et Société, Universite de LausanneOSPS- UNIVERSITE - Rue de Bassenges 4 - 1024 Eculens - CH

Abstract

The analysis of the seeds of the change, understood as the investigation of the initial components of potential changes, have to face many challenges when one want to use them in a prospective perspective. We would like to explore in our contribution one of these constraints: the influence of the relative position of the observer who seeks for these so-called seeds of changes.

Many studies about social and technological changes use an ex-post approach in order to identify the elements that were the main initiators of radical transformation processes. Traditionally such methodology gathered valuable insight in a sociological, economical and historical perspective on innovation. Nonetheless, when applied in the field of foresight, they are also prone to a posteriori re-interpretation. The rationalizations, which are often embedded in the narratives supported by these approaches, have a tendency to undermine a key ingredient of any foresight analysis: uncertainty. The opposite approaches which rely on an a priori identification of potential seeds of the changes raise another problem: the definition of the object to observe. It’s difficult to conceptualize an approach, which anticipates any kind of seeds of the change without, simultaneously, inducing a theory about the ontology of these elements.

In order to minimize this double pitfall of \"a priori\" projections and the \"a posteriori\" rationalization we propose in our contribution to analyze an ongoing process of change. Our frame of observation is dedicated to the fast evolving domain of the so-called Web 2.0. While very popular among many actors involved in Internet evolution, the concept of Web 2.0. remains very problematic as it covers a vast array of heterogeneous, technical (Ajax, Soap, API Services, Mash-ups, etc..), social (Folksonomy, user as contributors, social mimetic services, etc.) and organisational processes (Mass service of micromarkets, radical decentralization etc‚). Consequently, the definition of what is Web 2.0. forms and constantly evolving set of definitions and practices. We do not think that this fast and somewhat blurry evolution does constitute an obstacle but rather an opportunity to explore, in real time, how changes are emerging.We have done a systematic analysis of the over 250 self-proclaimed Web 2.0 start-ups. We decided to focus on young companies as they have to present their activities as being at the core of significant future evolution in order to attract customers or further financing resources. Using this

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corpus, we have mapped the components they define as key to their activities the services.

The systematic analysis of the contents of their services doesn’t identify specific elements which one could qualify as seeds of the change. In more limited way, we focus on how a collection of elements make a system i.e. compose a web of relations presented as interdependents. In other words, we used our material to understand how a group of heterogeneous elements could be combined and recombined in dynamic clusters. Our working hypothesis is that the essential elements of futures change are not given once for all, but exist within perpetual stabilisation and destabilisation processes. As such, seeds of change should not be conceptualized as static entities blessed with some strange power to shape the future but as a set of components, which main features are their abilities to be constantly rearranged among themselves by the involved actors. In our approach the future is always to be built and only dynamic systems of components could be qualified as seeds of changes. We will use our results to discuss the characteristics of such systems and the qualities they should have in order to foster materialization of changes. Our aim is not to predict the future of Web 2.0 but to understand the power relationship and the dynamics which shape the emergence of prominent dimensions of its perceived future evolution. We will argue that our approach could help to better understand difficult to account for phenomenon such as co-occurring emergences.

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14. The Dialogue of Cultures, Civilizations, and Religions: Tools for an Interdependent World, Groff L.

Linda Groffljgroff@csudh.edu

http://www.csudh.edu/global_options/

California State University, Dominguez Hillsand Director, Global Options Consulting

This presentation/paper will first define dialogue and look at characteristics of dialogue versus debate, and then at dialogue as an emerging global-local trend, in response to globalization and the increasing interactions of people—globally and locally in their own communities-- from the diversity of humanity, along with the concomitant need to find some common ground and values we can share as a global community, while still honoring the diversity of cultures, civilizations, and religions through which humanity has traditionally expressed itself.

Part I will look at what dialogue is, characteristics of dialogue versus debate, and how it is emerging as a global-local trend in cultural, civilizational and religious areas. Part II deals with cultural diversity and tools of intercultural communica-tion. Part III deals with civilizational diversity and the dialogue vs. clash of civilizations. Part IV deals with religious diversity and Interreligious dialogue. Conclusions sum up the great importance of dialogue today-when humanity is seeking ways to honor both our unity and interdependence, as well as our diversity of races, cultures, ethnic groups, civilizations, and religions—and offer recommendations for further dialogue today.

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15. Models of Change, with Key Examples From the Future Studies Field: A Foresight Tool to Aid Policy-Makers, Groff L.

Linda Groffljgroff@csudh.edu

http://www.csudh.edu/global_options/

California State University, Dominguez Hillsand Director, Global Options Consulting

Abstract

After noting characteristics of how futurists view change, and stages of change (A-B-C-D), this paper examines sixteen different models of the processes of change transforming our world, with examples of each, that collectively cover many issues in the future studies field—issues that policy-makers in different areas must also address. These include both older and newer models of change. Older models, including from different cultures and time periods, led to more predictable views of the future, while many newer models of particular interest to futurists today incorporate uncertainty and unpredictability, where gradual change within a system can suddenly shift to either breakdown of the system or breakthrough to a new system level or both. All these models will be explored.

Older models of change, based on a more predictable view of the future, from different cultures, include: linear change (classical 19th century Western worldview, and Darwin’s model of biological evolution); cyclical change through sequential points (the classical Eastern model); cyclical change through non-sequential points; cyclical change between two points or poles over time; and dialectical change between thesis-antithesis-synthesis.

Newer models of particular interest to futurists today include: accelerating growth with both negative “doom and gloom” examples (megacrisis issues, catastrophes, war) and positive, breakthrough examples (in technological, societal, human potential areas); S-curve (accelerating growth followed by “limits to growth” within a system) leading to three possible responses (steady-state growth; breakdown of the system; or breakdown to breakthrough to a new system level); step jump model (sudden shift to a higher system level with no prior breakdown); evolutionary spiral (combining elements of Eastern cyclical model with Western, linear model and worldview); series of S-curves to breakdowns to breakthroughs (or series of S-curves) over time; alternation between order (predictable, recognizable change within a system) and chaos (sudden shift to unpredictable, unrecognizable pattern of change, which emerges in time around a “strange attractor”) in chaos theory); and the acceleration (increasing percentage rate of change) of accelerating

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change—both within the same cycle of change, and from one cycle of change to the next.

Clarifying not only trends, but the models of change underlying those trends, can help policy-makers make more informed policy decisions and better prepare for dealing with uncertainty in our contemporary world and future.

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16. The Lack of Transition Strategy and Development Strategy of Serbia, Hadži M.

Miroljub Hadži*

Abstract

After year 2000 with return to International Community and more favorable development circumstances Serbia has faced with problem - What path of transition and development to choose and how to do it? During a few last decades, together with other republics of Former SFR Yugoslavia, Serbia has developed a specific mix of a plan – market economy.This legacy is important to know if wants to establish fully market oriented economy in proper manner and smoothly, without or with minimal social tensions, only. Serbia was at early 1990s a pioneer of transition, but it lost momentum because a singlemarket of former SFR Yugoslavia was destroyed and during the period of international sanctions, which together resulted deep economic and political crisis. Even, it can be argued that during this period Serbia could not be labeled as a transitory economy at all, because some backward steps in legal framework and institutional development were made. With political changes at late 2000 new favorable conditions for market reforms took place. It is important to note that transition toward market economy had to start again from the very beginning. The very difficult question was opened at this moment – How to manage market reforms and whole development process?An overall consensus was established for the need of reforms and their speed. However, on the top position, like at Government and National bank of Serbia, have been and still are people who are known in economic circles as “market fundamentalists“ or even „market Talibans“, with meaning those who are afraid of any word sounds like (or similar to) „plan“ or „strategy“. Their fears were related to the danger that any strategy or plan easily would push Serbian economy back to the communist past. It is important to note that this approach is not so far from advocating a radical approach to transition, which was prevailing approach at the beginning of 1990s in East and Central European countries. This approach was prescribed mainly by international financial institutions, like World Bank and IMF and among economists by Sacs J., Lipton D. and Kornai J. This so - called shock therapy for transition to market economy has faced with problems, mainly of social sort and with high costs of transition. However, after the decade of transition a gradualist approach is prevailing. Gradualists like Nellis J. and Stiglitz J.E., argued that it is necessary to minimize social costs of transition and to distribute those costs more equally to different social categories, in order to secure already achieved social consensus. This approach also emphasizes the importance of both institutional and legal framework development for establishment of a market economy. As inevitable outcome of the radical approach to transition followed, Serbia has created

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neither transition strategy, nor development strategy during whole transitory period to day (years 2000-2006). It can be argued that numerous negative effects have appeared because of this lack: social consensus

*Professor ajoint, University Singidunum Belgrade, Faculty for Financial Management and Insurance and Faculty for Economics, Finance and Administration

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17. Integrating GIS and Fuzzy Logic for Scenario Analysis in Foresight, Hatzichristos T. and M. Giaoutzi

Hatzichristos T. and M. Giaoutzi

thomasx@mail.ntua.gr giaoutsi@central.ntua.gr

Abstract

The integration of tools and methodologies in foresight is bound to become of utmost importance especially if the aim of integration facilitates participatory aspects of the planning process. The tools for integration in the scenario structuring and analysis process are geographical information systems, for handling input, management and visualization of the data and fuzzy logic, for data analysis, focusing on fuzzy rather than discreet elements and for exporting the results.

Three basic processes are involved in a knowledge-based fuzzy system: the production of membership functions, the framing of rules and the processing of rules. The rules connect variables to the expected results.

The integration of the above tools in scenario structuring and analysis increases the participatory potential of the method and enables better communication among planners and stakeholders so that the desired end to be reached in consensus.

The scope of the paper is twofold to present in the first part the scenario analysis approach developed, integrating GIS and fuzzy logic, while in the second part to describe a specific application that elaborates on the allocation of commercial and entertainment facilities, such as internet cafes in an urban environment. Three scenarios are developed in this context, involving high, medium and low priority for site selection, followed by an evaluation process depicting the best case scenario. The proposed methodology was applied for the Greater Athens Region.Finally conclusion are drawn presenting, the strong and weak points of the method.

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18. Do U.S. and EU-15 Countries Meet the Kyoto Targets till 2012? Exploring Numbers and Narratives for U.S. and European Energy and Climate Policies, Haukioja T.

Teemu HaukiojaTurku School of Economics, Department of Economics, Turku, Finland,

Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FIN-20500 TURKU

Jari Kaivo-oja

Turku School of Economics, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, Finland, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FIN-20500 TURKU

Abstract

One biggest challenge of our times is the management of climate change and its impacts on global civilizations. According to Stern Report human impact on climate change is a fact. Economic growth is one key driving force in climate change process. There is no doubt that economic growth and the state of the environment are somehow related. However, the evidence on the nature and strength of these relationships is controversial. There are few alternative theories about the relationship, which, however, do not tell unambiguously, how the environment and the economy co-evolve in reality. Because of this ambiguity we need empirical analysis in order to get deeper understanding about the real-world development. The purpose of this paper is to examine how carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth are related in two most developed industrial economic entities, the USA and 15 EU countries. The framework for the analysis is the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis.

There are two extreme views about the co-evolution of the environment and the economy. First, it is argued by growth pessimists that economic growth unavoidably degrades the state of the environment, since the growth of economic activity always requires intensified material use of natural resources and the environment. On the other hand, it is often argued that economic growth is needed in order to create wealth and technological progress so that we can afford to the better environment, and technical support to sustain it.

According to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis economic growth causes degradation of the environment at low income levels, but as income rises, harmful environmental impact will decrease. The environment is extracted in great extent in order to create economic growth in early stages of development. As the economy is developed enough, the environment is more valued and demanded by people, and technical progress makes it possible to create wealth with less environmental stress. This means that one should be able to find a level of income after which negative environmental impacts of economic activity will decline.

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Empirical EKC research shows mixed results for environmental pressure indicators. There are many theoretical and statistical problems involved. Our purpose in this paper is to get comprehensive picture of CO2 emissions in the EU-15 and the USA. CO2 emissions are measured from three different angles: efficiency, human effect, and total environmental stress.

CO2 per GDP measures improvements in technical efficiency. For the EU-15, the EKC gets significant statistical support indicating technical efficiency; the EU is able to create more wealth with decreasing CO2 emissions per output. Because of the recent development in the USA, the N-curve model gets statistical support. Despite of that, the EKC has strongly been present also in the USA. The picture becomes less optimistic as we measure CO2 emissions in per capita terms. In the EU-15 there may be the EKC relation present, but in the USA the EKC process does not get significant statistical support, but the N-curve behavior is more likely. Models of the total CO2 emissions suggests that in the EU-15 the EKC hypothesis may be present, but also race to bottom scenario is plausible, and N-curve behavior cannot be ruled out. There is no EKC for the USA in total CO2 emissions.

To conclude, our experimentation highlights that the single piece of evidence for the EKC hypothesis does not mean that economic progress also promotes total welfare by reducing relative environmental stress. Comprehensive analysis for relative and total developments should be performed in order to get the whole picture of the need for corrective policy actions. Because the EKC cannot be ruled out for the EU-15, however measured, we might be cautiously optimistic that EU’s active role in environmental policy can have real effects also for global pollutants. The successful management of global pollutants, however, requires that also other major economies take international environmental concerns more seriously.

Summing up the key results, the study analyses the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with CO2 data for the EU-15 and the USA between years 1960–2003. The EKC is analyzed from three angles: emission efficiency, per capita effect, and the total environmental stress. Somewhat surprisingly, and against general expectations, all dimensions of indicators suggest that the EKC cannot be rejected for the EU-15 countries. Instead, the emissions for the USA seem to behave according to the so-called N-curve hypothesis. The latter is consistent with conventional results. Our findings may indicate that EU’s active role in controlling greenhouse gas emissions can have real effects also globally.

In the paper the authors present baseline scenarios for the U.S. and EU-15. They present also alternative set of scenarios with different economic growth expectations. In the further analysis authors make an additional scenario, where they assume that the U.S. will reach the EKC-curve sooner or later, which is not the case today on the basis of empirical results of the paper. In the paper the authors use the Kyoto targets as a benchmarking

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framework for foresight analysis. The feasibility evaluation of the Kyoto Foresight analysis of the paper covers developments till the year 2015. The current Kyoto targets are focused on period 2008-2012. Authors discuss the relevance of results from foresight research perspective. Key conclusion is that the results are policy relevant foresight knowledge for climate policy makers and for all the key stakeholders of European and U.S. governments, who are using energy in their production and consumption processes.

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19. Thinking about the Futures for Universities: Alternative visions for the EU, ERIA and universities, Havas A.

Attila Havashavasatt@econ.core.hu

Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of SciencesBudaorsi ut 45 - H-1112 Budapest

Abstract

Universities have traditionally been key players‚ for centuries the only visible ones‚ in producing and validating new scientific knowledge. Other research actors have emerged since the 19th century, notably firms, public labs, and more recently some patient groups and other types of NGOs, too. Moreover, the notion of research has been extended/ revised considerably, and the discussion moved on to analyze broader issues, like knowledge, knowledge production and use, new players in producing, using and validating knowledge, learning, learning capabilities, etc. Universities, however, still play a crucial role, and likely to continue to do so. Their environment is undergoing further fundamental changes, and thus it is timely to consider alternative visions for them, to be better prepared for their new roles and meet new social and economic requirements.

The paper, therefore, first offers an analysis of the current and emerging roles of universities, and also compares them to other research performing sectors. Then an account is made of the recent and future key trends, and the major drivers for changes in higher education.

The core of the paper devises futures (or visions, but not fully-fledged path scenarios) for universities, with the time horizon of 2020, focusing on their research activities, and with the objective to contribute to EU policies shaping the European Research and Innovation Area (ERIA). (ERIA is understood throughout the paper as the set of all relevant actors of RTDI processes in the EU; in other words, all their actions and interactions.)

Universities‚ like all the other actors‚ operate in broader socio-economic systems, and thus it is crucial to set the scene. One possibility could be to treat these systems as given. The EU itself, however, is still evolving; in part due to a number of internal factors‚ e.g. the recently initiated strategic processes and enlargement as the most visible ones‚ and in part as a reaction to external factors, such as globalization, competition among the Triad regions, etc. The paper, therefore, devises alternative visions at three distinct levels. First, futures are developed for the EU. The major variables of these visions are (i) the overall rationale of EU policies (that is, if the emphasis is either on social and economic cohesion or on competitiveness); (ii) EU‚ standing vis-a-vis with the Triad (i.e. whether the EU is successful or laggard vis-a-vis the US and East Asia). It is also assumed that the European Research and Innovation Area can evolve in

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different directions, depending on the main features of the EU to a significant extent, but obviously having its own dynamics, too. Thus, at the second level the different directions are identified, in which the European Research and Innovation Area can evolve. At a third level‚ skipping the national level‚ alternative futures are built for the universities themselves. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.

The author acknowledges that it is never a one-man-job to build policy-relevant visions; the idea behind drawing up meaningful, relevant futures is to bring together different stakeholders with their diverse background, accumulated knowledge and experience, as well as distinct viewpoints and approaches so as to enrich the discussion and analysis. Visions developed by individuals, such as the present ones, can only spark lively dialogues among researchers, policy-makers, and the public, by offering food for thoughts at best.

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20. Exploring seeds of change within the actualization process of future images for Hungary, Hideg E., Nováky E. and A. Vág

Éva HIDEG – Erzsébet NOVÁKY – András VÁGeva.hideg@uni-corvinus.hu

Futures Studies Department, Corvinus University of Budapest

Abstract

We should like to give a presentation about a possible methodological solution of actualization of future images within the environment of information technology. Concentrating on the exploring the seeds of changes the future is approached both in subjective and objective ways.

In our world deep changes have been affecting different areas of complex society values and our relationship to them for more than a decade. Changes are not only “happen” to us, but also – due to the democratic system change and increasing instability – we have the opportunity to form the changes according to our goals and values. For this we must constantly track the changes within our environment.

New information technique provides new conditions, which we might and should live with. We have to constantly track, interpret, analyse and evaluate information registering changes and draw conclusions from them towards the future. Conclusions and expectations should not only be conceived to just one area and topic. Transforming and restructuring interrelationships among different fields and topics must be tracked constantly. Therefore it is necessary to focus on the future images again. However, this kind of future image building does not mean the formulation of a distant, desirable future image, but an actualizing set of future variants and future image alternatives, which are ambiguous from the aspect of our possibilities as well as our goals, values and activity intentions.

In an unstable period we have to carry out these analyses and produce forecast and foresight information applying new methods quite different from older ones, along with making the process constant and rapid. Moreover it is essential and desirable that actualized future images should form the basis of individual and institutional foresight, and the procedures of online future image actualization might be applied to test individual and community foresight as well.

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In our presentation we would like to show:(1) How we might explore and determine the seeds of change amid

the circumstances of constant instability and changes.(2) How it is possible to permanently actualize Hungarian future

images within the environment of information technology.

Seeds of change can be sought both in subjective judgements and objective tendencies. Therefore we might seek them in the subjective manner and objective opportunities of approaching the future. Hence, at present times it is reasonable to examine first whether process are formable and changeable (i.e. whether they sensitively react to impacts, especially to small impacts), and second what future-shaping capability and power the individual and institutional human sphere with different values has. Consequently examining the stability of processes and the future orientation of individuals and institutions is of great importance. Possible future images and futures alternatives might effectively be explored following a two-way approach: we examine first the stability/instability of processes and changes, second the future orientation of individuals and social institutions as social filters. Elements of the two-way approach should naturally be linked in an interrelated way to provide information underpinning strategy.

During our researches we first determined the information basis, the application of which would guarantee the achievement of our goals, i.e. a wide variety of future image alternatives might be constructed, and the set of information is relevant both for strategy formulation and changing future orientation purposes.

Establishing online analytical, forecast and foresight information we laid emphasis on the stability-examination of selected time-series. We carried out the examinations not only relating to historical data, but also to the extrapolations of different trendfunctions, taking into account, how the data-series might behave in terms of stability assuming different expectations.

Our other analytical-forecast examination was directed to explore possible relationships and their stability between information with different features, i.e. to what extent the data is sensitive, and how they might change time by time.

We analyzed relationships not only on the basis of data available in the database, but we also collected actual information on future orientation of Hungarian society in the framework of an online survey. The results were feeded back into the database and applied during the actualization of future images alternatives.

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Results of time series’ stability-analyses and views of opinion forming groups were processed in the framework of an expertial foresight workshop. In the workshop we examined

o in which fields changes are expected,o what kind of changes are possible, if we simultaneously take into

account instability of trends and different views of opinion forming groups,

o how different changes might be linked, and what kind of complex future image alternatives might be considered from them for the next 5 years.

Seeds of change were sought in unstable trends, and in different future imaginations together with their relationships of university students and active white-collars (opinion-forming groups) being committed towards the future. Changes are mostly expected in areas where trends are unstable, and at the same time future imaginations significantly differ from one another. Nature of changes were concluded from subjective future-attitudes, possible actions derived from expectations and value content of expectations. If we found relationship between trend-stability and significantly different future expectations, we regarded the possibility and characteristics of changes as unstable.

On the basis of our researches we may argue that we managed to find the seeds of change within a macro level futures alternatives system, and we were able to involve them into a future image actualization process as well. Our research demonstrates the usage of a web-based tool and the integration of hard and soft foresighting methods, too.

AcknowledgementThe topic of this presentation is based on the results of the research program (No. T 043522), entitled Change and Future (project leader: Prof. Erzsébet Nováky, DSc), and the research program (No. T 048539), entitled Futures Studies in the Interactive Society (project leader: Associate Prof. Éva Hideg, PhD).

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21. The Futures Window, a new method for presenting visual weak signals in organizational environment, Hiltunen E.

Elina Hiltunenelina.hiltunen@tse.fi

Finland’s Futures Research Centre

Abstract

Introduction

The concept of weak signals has aroused considerable interest in Finland, not only among academics, but also with organizations and public media. The weak signals are considered to be fascinating as one medium for anticipating changes in the environment. However, the definition of the concept has remained quite obscure. Other similar concepts such as emerging issues, seeds of change, precursors, and even wild cards are often considered to be synonyms for weak signals. The author has defined a new theoretical view for looking at weak signals. This she calls the future sign. In the presentation, this new concept is opened up to explain how the author sees the theory of weak signals.

Despite of the short theoretical overview, the focus of this presentation will be in practical tools for utilizing the information of weak signals in the business environment. The Futures Window is a practical, new tool for utilizing visual weak signals. Its aim is to encourage futures thinking; key elements of which are creating and anticipating the future.

Description of the elements of the Futures Window

The Futures Window method consists of three elements; physical appliances, i.e. monitors and content i.e. visual weak signals. In addition, a moderator, which the author calls the futures' reporter, is needed to provide the content to the monitors. In the following section, the elements are described more thoroughly.

Monitors

Images of weak signals are presented (as a slide show type of presentation) in monitors that exist in the organization's facilities. These monitors (also projection type of technique is possible) are installed in the various places of organization's facilities. Recommended places for the monitors are, for example, lobbies, elevators, cafeterias, coffee rooms, rest rooms, i.e. places where people stand still for a while and have some time for looking at the Futures Window. In the best cases, the monitors exist in places where employees gather together for more unofficial purposes. Thus, the Futures Window could encourage people to start discussing the visual weak signals and their respective meanings for the

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future. Examples of such places are coffee rooms, cafeterias and tobacco rooms.

Content

Content of the Futures Windows consists of visual weak signals. Thesesignals can be images of new innovations, business ideas, new products, street observations, etc. Images can be found from magazines, internet or they can be taken by employees of the company or the futures' reporters (of course here the intellectual rights of the images should be checked). Also artists can be used to generate images of weak signals e.g. in the form of comic strips, if such images are not available otherwise.

Futures' Reporter

The task of the futures' journalist is to pull strings together for the Futures Window. This means that she/ he is responsible for collecting the images and editing the images/material that the employees have sent for the Futures Window. The reporter also contacts artists to provide more material to the Window, if needed.

Piloting the Futures Window at VTT

The idea of the Futures Window has been piloted at VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland), which is the biggest contract research organisation in Northern Europe. The piloting was done in co-operation with VTT's new future oriented program Technology Futures Forum (TFF), which is headed by chief research scientist, Sirkka Heinonen (see: www.vtt.fi/tff <RE:%20paperi%20Ateenaan-2.EML/1_multipart_xF8FF_2_Paper%20for%20conference%20of%20COST%20A22.EH.editedbySH.doc/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93DDAFB3/www.vtt.fi/tff>). The piloting took place in two seminars arranged at VTT in November 17th (referred to as the first seminar) and December, 1st, 2006 (referred to as the second seminar) and it was combined with several working group exercises. The material, which consisted about 50 visual weak signals i.e. images, was primarily collected by the author, completed with a few additions by Dr. Sirkka Heinonen. This material (equivalent in both seminars) was presented to the audiences as a slide show on large monitors during the breaks of the seminars. Moreover, for the group work based on the visual weak signals, the images were printed as posters that were attached to the walls for closer viewing. The seminar participants were also asked later on during the seminars to fill the feedback form about their views of the Futures Window.

Overall, the Futures Window pilot got positive feedback from the participants of the seminars. In the first seminar there were 13 respondents out of about 30 people and in the second seminar 17 respondents out of about 50 people to answer the feedback questionnaire.

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The participants were, for example, asked to comment some claims concerning about the Futures Window. The answers were rated in a scale: fully disagree, somehow disagree, somehow agree, fully agree, cannot say. For example to the claim: "The Futures Window gave me new ideas about the future" all the respondents agreed in the first seminar (fully agreed: 46.2%, somehow agree 53.8%, no other answers). In the second seminar, the opinions varied more, while still being positive: fully disagree 0%, somehow disagree 12.5 %, somehow agree 50%, totally agree 31.2%, cannot say 6.2 %.

Another claim for the participants was that "In my opinion the FuturesWindow could be useful in activating futures thinking in my own work". The respondents in the first seminar agreed (somehow or fully) 92.3 %, and disagreed (somehow, not totally) 7.7 %. In the second seminar the results were similar: disagree (fully + somehow) 12.4 % and agreeing (somehow and fully) 87.4 %. Among other things, the participants were also asked whether they would like to have Futures Windows in their own organization's facilities (claim:" At VTT orin my organization, if other than VTT, there could be Futures Windows for examples in canteens or cafeterias). In the first seminar 84.6 % agreed (somehow + fully) and in the second seminar 93.7% agreed (somehow + fully).

The short summary of the results of the questionnaires show that there is positive climate towards the Futures Window. Even though the Futures Windows have not yet been applied in the sense that the author meant it in the first place, the results of these small pilots have encouraged the author to work more with this method. Also VTT, who openly grasped the opportunity to pilot the Futures Window, has shown more green light to the method. The next piloting of the Window will accordingly be done during February, 2007 in a more open space (i.e. with more audience) at VTT.Results of this pilot will also be presented in the full seminar paper.

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22. Perspectives in Understanding Weak Signals, Holopainen M.

Mari Holopainenmari.holopainen@hut.fi

Helsinki University of TechnologyInnovation Management Institute IMI P.O. Box 5500, FI-02015 TKK, Finland

Otaniementie 17, Espoo

Abstract

This conceptual paper aims to increase our understanding of a specific concept in foresight: the concept of weak signals. The paper presents definitions and theoretical views of weak signals on the basis of literature, and provides practical examples of phenomena interpreted as weak signals. The paper also discusses the relation of weak signals to other closely related concepts, such as emerging issues and early warnings. Further, weak signals are put in the broader context of futures studies: their relation to the concepts of strong signals, trends and driving forces are analyzed. The changing business environment requires fast identification of the potential business opportunities (e.g., Ansoff 1984, Prahalad 1995, Day & Schoemaker 2004). Weak signals are at the moment one of the most fascinating themes in futures studies, but they are by nature hard to define and recognize (Mannermaa 2004). While the importance of weak signals has been widely recognized, the actual processes for interpreting them in organizations have not received significant attention in the empirical studies (Ilmola & Kuusi 2006). Therefore gaining better understanding of weak signals offers an interesting viewpoint both for research and management purposes.

Originally Ansoff (1984) defined weak signals as the internal or external warning signs of a company, which are still too weak for defining their importance. When forming the strategy it is extremely important for a company to observe the changes occurring due to turbulences in the environment. Ansoff’s ideas on the existence of weak signals have been later elaborated by other authors. An important contribution that he made is, for example, the framework of filters which hinder the emerging issues to be utilized.

Various terms such as ‘wild cards’ (Inayatullah 1996), ‘germs’ (Godet 1994) and ‘early warnings’ (Nikander 2002) have been used as synonyms for weak signals. Later, a difference between a wild card and weak signal has been made by defining a weak signal as a sign of a future wild card (Mendonça et al., 2004). Hiltunen (2006) also distinguishes these two concepts; weak signals can pre-indicate changes such as wild cards and gradual changes.

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More broadly, the mapping of weak signals as well as wild cards is a part of environmental scanning methods in futures studies. They belong to the methods which are rather based on expert opinion than calculatory practices (Finland Futures Academy 2007). Environmental scanning relates to tracking down the dynamics of change and it includes the identification and analysis of the weak signals, trends, megatrends, wild cards and driving forces phenomena. For instance, a trend is often confused with the term ‘weak signal’, although a trend is a phenomenon which is already broadly known and can be seen (e.g., Metsämuuronen 1999, Hiltunen 2000). Therefore, this paper aims to make clear the interrelationship of weak signals and other concepts belonging to environmental scanning.

Several research directions have encountered the idea of weak signals; only with variable names and definitions (Nikander & Eloranta 2001). The paper aims to illustrate how the views by different fields of research differ and what kinds of similarities they have. In addition to futures studies and foresight, weak signals have gained interest and been illustrated for instance in communications research and management science. In communication research, especially business journalism has been understood as a fruitful ground for research. Business journalists use analysts and investors, who attempt to foresee the future events, as their sources for information (Uskali 2005). Nikander & Eloranta (2001) have analyzed the observation of early warnings in project management. In both examples, the interpretation of weak signals is related to the proactive way to react to change. In the context of project management the authors use the term ‘early warning’ in order to refer to a response to a probable problem whereas in journalism weak signals are considered advantageous by creating a possibility to publish an interesting article first.

Despite the rising interest, the concept of a weak signal still remains vague and problematic in certain dimensions. The definitions of weak signals vary according to author, from the sign of an emerging trend to the phenomenon itself. The difference between the phenomenon and the signs indicating it are difficult to distinguish (Moijanen 2003). Certain authors emphasize that a weak signal has to have a significant impact when it is realized (e.g. Mannermaa 2004) whereas others disagree on this. According to Ansoff (1984) a weak signal may not be realized because it is conceivable that the possibilities it offers will never occur.

The potential sources for weak signals are also partly contradictory. In the context of expert panels such as Delphi studies it has been argued, that a high level of expertise is important for the identification of weak signals (Kuusi 1999). Also, more informal sources such as family and friends may prove to be useful sources for weak signals (Hiltunen 2001). Several authors agree that the sources of weak signals can often be found by moving outside the existing paradigms i.e. by challenging what has been learned and the traditional way of thinking (e.g., Hiltunen 2001, Day & Schoemaker 2004). As nowadays professionalism is widely distributed,

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weak signals can often be spotted by ‘expert amateur groups’ who acquire or even create the latest knowledge around their interest.

The paper also discusses the challenges that organizations face when trying to detect weak signals. It raises the question whether organizational creativity can enhance the detection of signals. Organizations should be able to encourage crossing and overcoming different filters which limit creative thinking and observation (cf. Ansoff 1984, Ilmola & Kuusi 2006). In organizational context it is important to take advantage of the futures thinking that exists throughout the organization as well as observe changes in environment.

REFERENCESAnsoff, H. I. 1984. Implanting Strategic Management. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Day, G., & Schoemaker, P. 2004. Peripheral Vision: Sensing and Acting on

Weak Signals. Long Rage Planning Journal, 37: 116-122.Godet M. 1994. From Anticipation to Action. A Handbook of

Strategic Perspective. Paris: UNESCO. Finland Futures Academy (FFA). 2007.

http://www.tut.fi/liku/opetus/kurssit/LIKU-7100/Menetelmat.pdf, visited 12.1.2007. (In Finnish)

Hiltunen, E. 2000. Heikot signaalit- teoriakatsaus Futura, (2): 72-77. (In Finnish)

Hiltunen, E. 2001. Heikkojen signaalien käyttö yrityksissä. Futura, (1): 45-50. (In Finnish)

Hiltunen, E. 2006. Was it a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change? Journal of Futures Studies, 11(2): 61-74.

Ilmola, L., & Kuusi, O. 2006. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making. Futures, 38: 908-924.

Inayatullah, S. 1996. Methods and Epistemologies in Futures Studies. In Slaughter, R. (Ed.), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Foundations. Hawthorn: DDM Media Group.

Kuusi, O. 1999. Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies, Epistemic and Methodological Considerations Concerning Delphi Studies. Doctoral Thesis in the Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration. Helsinki: HeSE Print.

Mannermaa, M. 2004. Heikoista signaaleista vahva tulevaisuus. Porvoo: WSOY. (In Finnish)

Mendonça, S., Kaivo-oja, J., & Pina e Cunha, M., & Ruff, F. 2004. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational Improvisation. Futures, 36: 201-218.

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Metsämuuronen, J., 1999. Asiantuntijamielipide prosessina – tasapainojakauma ja heikot signaalit. Futura, (2): 16-23. (In Finnish).

Moijanen, M. 2003. Heikot signaalit tulevaisuudentutkimuksessa. Futura, (2): 48-93. (In Finnish)

Nikander, O., & Eloranta. E. 2001. Project management by early warnings. International Journal of Project Management, 19: 385-399.

Nikander, O., 2002. Early Warnings, a Phenomenon in Project Management. A Doctoral Dissertation, Helsinki University of Technology. Helsinki: Yliopistopaino.

Prahalad, C.K. 1995. Weak Signals Versus Strong Paradigms. Journal of Marketing Research, vol. 32(3): 3-6.

Uskali, T. 2005. Paying Attention to Weak Signals – The Key Concept for Innovation Journalism. Conference Paper. The Second Conference on Innovation Journalism. Stanford University. Innovation Journalism 2(4): 33-52. http://www.innovationjournalism.org/archive/INJO-2-4.pdf, visited 10.1.2007.

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23. Experts and Disciplines – Sources of Change and the Construction of Visions in Foresight Studies, Jørgensen U.

Ulrik Jørgensenuj@ipl.dtu.dk

Department of Manufacturing Engineering and ManagementTechnical University of Denmark - Building 424 - 2800 Lyngby - DK

Abstract

The paper and presentation will explore the role of experts and their knowledge in foresight processes. Experts are very often used to provide foresight studies with knowledge input on technological opportunities, on professional knowledge about industries and institutions, and on societal change and trends. In this study the focus is on experts on technology, which are often selected with either a research or industry background based anticipating that these institutional settings are the most advanced in providing front line knowledge on technical opportunities and also on the types of problems that future technical achievements can solve. In most cases of foresight there are contradictory visions and envisaged problems involved in future developments. Some of these are seen as threats to the existing dominant path of development of technologies employed and, in a broader perspective, destructive sides of the ongoing change, other as opportunities for new developments and problem solving.

Based on two case studies from the field of hygiene technology and mobile communication the use of expertise in technological foresight is analysed. This is done the background of the anticipated seeds of change and how the threats and potentials of existing technological regimes and their path of development are assessed by different stakeholders in the process. The cases demonstrated a rather disturbing problem of the role of dominating disciplinary concepts and the role of collective established truths about problems and solutions. This questions the mere concept of expert knowledge and the role of disciplinary based knowledge not only of technologies but also of the fields of applications for these technologies. A critical perspective based on studies of the sociology of knowledge and technology is suggested as an analytical tool for foresight studies. The potential of this approach is demonstrated in the two cases, though the institutional framing of foresight using expertise as legitimisation needs to be improved to cater for such an analytical approach. In both cases alternative developments (were) are possible and need to be explored.

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24. A Social Shaping of Technology (SST) Approach to Technology Foresight, Jørgensen S.M., U. Jørgensen and C. Clausen

Michael Søgaard Jørgensen*, Ulrik Jørgensen and Christian ClausenUnit for Innovation and Sustainability, Department of Manufacturing

Engineering and Management (IPL),

Technical University of Denmark (DTU), 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, DENMARKcorresponding author: E-mail: msj@ipl.dtu.dk Phone: +45 45 25 60 24

SUBMITTED TO FUTURES JOURNAL DEC 2006. DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT AUTHORS’ PERMISSION

Abstract

The social shaping of technology approach (SST) has been developed as a response to narrow ideas of techno-economic rationality and linear conceptions of technology development and its consequences. The SST approach seems especially promising in areas where visions are manifold, societal interests conflicting, and applications and markets are non existing or unclear. The emerging high technology areas and several areas of more sustainable development like organic food production and renewable energy are examples of this kind, where techno-economic networks are unstable or under construction and social and environmental potentials and risks difficult, if not impossible to assess.

The paper explores the potential of a social shaping of technology approach to technology foresight within such technology areas and presents the methodological aspects herein: structure versus contingency, actor-network approach, laboratory programmes, techno-economic networks, actor worlds, development arenas. Experiences based on a recent Danish green technology foresight project concerned with environmental risks and opportunities related to nano-, bio- and ICT technologies and foresight activities in relation to food are used as empirical references.

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25. Constructing and Deconstructing Visions in Foresight Activities: Theory and Experiences, Jørgensen S.M. and D. Grosu

Michael Søgaard Jørgensen Technical University of Denmarkmsj@ipl.dtu.dk

Dan Grosu, Romanian National University Research Council dan.grosu@uefiscsu.ro

Abstract

The paper discusses the roles of visioning processes and visions in foresight activities and in societal discourses and changes parallel to or following foresight activities. The overall topic can be characterised as the dynamics and mechanisms that make visions and visioning processes work or not work. The paper has a theoretical and an empirical part. The theoretical part presents an actor-network theory approach to the analyses of visions and visioning processes, where the shaping of the visions and the visioning and what has made them work or not work is deconstructed. The empirical part is based on analyses of the roles of visions and visioning processes in a number of foresight processes from different societal contexts. The analyses have been carried out as part of the work in WG3 in the COST A22 network on foresight.

In the paper a vision is understood as a description of a desirable or preferable future, compared to a scenario which is understood as a description of a possible future. Visioning processes are understood as processes where a vision is developed or where visions get a role in societal discourses. The actor-network approach is used as the theoretical background The theoretical part of the paper describes different characteristics of visions like

- the time horizon- the scope (society, sector etc.)- whether the vision is an end-point presenting a future and whether it

includes descriptions of the paths towards the desirable future- the roles given to different actors and objects (actants) like a certain

technology area- the peripheral characteristics of the vision like the expectations to

the surrounding society, its infrastructure etc.- the differences between the present conditions and the future which

the vision describes.

An important part of a vision is the visioning processes leading to the development of the vision. In this kind of processes actors, objects, societal discourses are inscribed into a vision through co-shaping of the vision and its elements. This may include creation of an obligatory passage point, where certain actors, technologies etc. are given roles,

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which all other elements in the vision have to relate to. Important aspects include which types of actors that participate in the visioning processes and which types of expertise that is included in the processes (scientific, lay, business etc.).

Furthermore the paper describes characteristics of visioning processes outside the foresight activity itself. Such visioning processes, where visions gain (or not gain) support, may follow or take place in parallel to the foresight processes. This includes processes where promoters of visions try to enrol other actors into the vision and when other actors try to gain support by inscribing the vision into their strategies. In this kind of processes the vision acts as a boundary object. One aspect of the analyses of these processes is the analysis of the mutual shaping of the vision and the actors, objects and the societal discourses getting enrolled into the vision.

The empirical part of the paper analyses national and international foresight activities from Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Malta, Portugal, Slovak republic and The Netherlands and the role of visions and the visioning processes within and/or following the foresight activities. Some of the foresight activities are overall national foresight activities focusing on the future development of a nation, while others have a more specific focus on societal problems and values (e.g. environmental protection and learning), sectors (e.g. agriculture) or technologies (nano-, bio- and ICT technology). The paper finishes with elements for further work, which will compare the different cases and try to draw some conclusions concerning the role of the context and the topic in visions and visioning processes.

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26. Introducing Seed of Change: Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future, Kaivo-oja J. and S. Mendoca

Jari Kaivo-ojajari.kaivo-oja@tse.fi

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), Turku School of Economics (TSE),

Sandro Mendoncasfm@iscte.pt

Depatment of Economics, University and SPRU, University

Abstract

Some cultures following religious belief assume that our fate has been predetermined and hence is immutable and out of our control. There were times when it was believed that predictions and futures analyses were heretic activities identified with sorcery. The future is the domain of becoming and what it might be. It is not written, but it is constructed or we drift into it. What happens in the future results only in part from our past actions, with their manifold and uncertain interpretations. The future evolves from the past, but there are many degrees of freedom and many possible futures.

The paper elaborates some key issues in the identification of seeds of change in our times. Traditionally seeds of change refer to emerging novel issues in the world. In the foresight research seeds of changes are identified in different systems, typically in (1) political systems, (2) economic systems, (3) technological systems, (4) social systems, (5) environmental systems and (6) value and ethical systems. There are various environmental scanning frameworks: STEEP (or PESTE), STEEPV (or PESTEV) or Porter´s five forces analysis. Authors point out that the used system framework is critical part in the framing of foresight activities. Systems are interactive and some systems create pre-conditions to other upper systems. System level constraints are one part of realistically oriented foresight research. Following Deutsch´s ideas about the fabric of reality (Deutch 1997), authors point out that the reality has many interactive levels. Physical level systems create pre-conditions to chemical level systems of the reality. Chemical systems create pre-conditions to biological systems. Biological systems are pre-condition to psychological processes. Human psychological processes are having impacts on social systems and social systems do have impacts on cultural systems. We are not living in linear fabric of the reality, but there are also complex feedback processes with different levels of the reality. Complex inter-linkages between systems make identifying seeds of change difficult and challenging. There are aspects of uncertainty in many levels of the reality.

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The environments of public and private organizations have become not only increasingly uncertain in recent years but also more tightly interconnected. Globalization increases interconnections between different systems. For example, old Nokia´s corporation vision “Connecting people” is transforming to “Connecting everything” because of on-going ubiquitous revolution. Understanding seeds of change is difficult to us, because our experiences are local, personal and incomplete. Even if we study a phenomenon very well, we probably cannot know everything about it, nor identify and infer the effect of intangible criteria.

The authors admit to the existence of chaotic phenomena that are beyond the knowledge gained from experience, and our information limited rational means to explicate them. Authors point out that well-known Bell’s theorem (1964), which says that events can happen without the mediation of local, directly acting forces, is today a very relevant scientific theorem for foresight research. Admitting non-local effects on outcomes means that foresight, in some cases, is beyond conventional cause-effect explanation. Authors point out that in the field of foresight research Bell’s theorem is a profound theorem. On-going global change, which increases interconnections of systems and networks, increases the relevance of seeds of change analysis as well as the relevance of Bell’s theorem. Causal thinking does not work well in foresight analysis of complex outcomes, as there are usually many factors to consider at the same time, and with about the same degree of importance. This means that changes anywhere reverberate unpredictably and often chaotically and dangerously throughout the society. One good example was the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 that swept away nearly 300,000 lives in a large region of interconnected regional systems. This kind increased uncertainty and interconnectedness requires a threefold response for organizations. First, organizations must think strategically as never before. Second, they must translate their insights into effective strategies to cope with their changed circumstances. Third, they must develop the rationales necessary to lay the groundwork for adopting and implementing their strategies. The authors point out on the basis of their theoretical discussion that complexity theory and complex systems analysis are very important background theories for the general seeds of change analysis.

Successful organizations cannot neglect the emerging seeds of change. In the complex environment decision-making has to cope with complexity with some mechanisms. The traditional linear planning methods are concentrating on an efficient, well-focused strategic plan with a clearly defined vision, mission and strategy implementation. In the changing seeds of change environment, these kinds of traditional lineal planning methods are not appropriate methods. There are three important points about seeds of change analysis (or so called weak signals management) as Ansoff (1984) pointed out partly; the “three S”: sensitivity (in scanning), selectivity (in filtering) and serendipity (finding ideas you are not looking for), and correspondingly 3 main key questions concerning professional foresight activities: (1) How to develop sensitivity in organizations? (2)

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How to balance sensitivity vs. selectivity in organizations? And (3) how to organize serendipity?

Typically in the foresight research, seeds of change have been identified by the help of Environmental scanning or other environmental monitoring or scanning systems and methodologies. Typical organization level methodologies in the field of business research field have been (1) marketing research, (2) competitor analyses, (3) product and service innovation analysis and (4) the company’s international environment. Environmental scanning activities can also be performed in the macro level. We can conclude that seeds of change can be identified both micro environments and macro environments. Figure 1. Level of impacts and degree of uncertainty (Morrison and Wilson 1996, 10).

Level ofImpact

In foresight research the level of impacts and degree of uncertainty are relevant variables, when weak signals and wild cards are analyzed (Figure 1). Wild cards are always processes, which have high impacts and have high uncertainty level. Weak signals can wild cards or events with low impacts.

In the paper authors make a critical review of current methodologies relevant to identify seeds of change in societies. They identify interesting new methodologies developed recently, but they also make some critical observations for further methodological development. One concluding key point of view in their reflective methodological analysis is that in the future mixed methods research approach, which combines both qualitative and

High Impact High ImpactLow Uncertainty High Uncertainty

Low Impact Low ImpactLow Uncertainty High Uncertainty

Low

Low

Medium

High

Medium High

Degree of Uncertainty

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quantitative methodologies, should be developed further in the field of foresight. Mixed methods approach is a new research paradigm in foresight research, whose time has come. The authors conclude that the time of monomethods in the foresight field is going to be over, especially if we really want to analyze emerging seeds of change.

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27. Towards a Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies, Karlsen J.

Jan E. Karlsenjan-erik.karlsen@iris.no.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to investigate the inherent epistemic premises embedded in the application of quantitative and qualitative foresight methods and tools and to offer taxonomy for the classification of such approaches.

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

A growing concern that predictive quantitative models are too limiting to serve as tool used in foresight analysis is recently met by the emerging application of qualitative approaches to complement and compensate for the weaknesses of the more formalised approaches. Quantitative approaches (i.e. mostly mathematical models) most often cannot reproduce or reflect the sudden changes or detect the weak signals of change seen in real societies. Some recent foresight programs and projects have challenged this issue by combining narratives and thick descriptions with games, simulations, or computer based models and calculations.

It is evident that there is a gap between the complexity of future options and pathways which is addressed in foresight studies and the analytical tools applied to map the complexity. And – there is no consensus on an appropriate methodology balance between the qualitative and quantitative approaches. The lack of a common and approved methodology stems, a least partly from the fact that the inherent epistemic characteristics of qualitative and quantitative methods differ when it comes to capturing the complexity of issues addressed in foresight exercises.

Quantitative approaches most often investigate concepts, constructs and variables, apply numerical values, investigates cause-and-effect or functional relationships, and focus on reliability, validity, generalizability and objectivity as quality of the evidence given by the analysis. The qualitative approach addresses phenomena and concepts, apply narrative descriptions, seek patterns of association as connections between concepts, and use dependability, credibility, transferability and confirmability as core concepts to substantiate the quality of evidence produced.

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A classical orientation has been either to use quantitative methods and data to substantiate or underpin qualitative descriptions or vice versa to apply brief narratives to frame the quantitative analysis. Previously, it has been suggested that when applying «forecasting methods» we find that certain combinations of futures research methods fit together while others do not, depending on the thematic focus of the analysis.

Our approach addresses how to find a balance between the two major approaches when analyzing foresight issues by offering a taxonomy matrix in which one might compose an optimal combination of approaches appropriate for telling robust stories of the future.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

The material consists of data reported by foresight expert assessments carried out in two successive COST A22 sessions during 2006. In total, 33 various methods and tools are ranked on a scale from 1 to 10 regarding six different criteria inherent in the application of such methodological approaches. The batch of approaches assessed represents a mixture of quantitative and qualitative logic, requires different scale of mobilization, may be applied on various foresight domains, and demonstrate different levels of complexity as to input, process and output of data.

In addition, qualitative comments as to the applicability and prerequisites of the approaches have been collected.

RESULTS

Findings indicate that it gives meaning to classify the inventory of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools according to the epistemic characteristics chosen in the assessment scheme addressed by the European foresight experts involved.

In many ways this study unveil a general problem or challenge within the foresight school as an intellectual endeavour; though it emphasize a critical dialogue about scientific vision and self-contained truth, foresight is mostly a conceptual framework and hardly a scientific discipline in itself. However, foresight exercises apply scientific methods and involve domain experts on a broad scale, perhaps to pretend being more «scientific» than there are supporting evidence?

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Some epistemological lessons, where the traditional application of research methods collides with the eagerness to adapt such methods to the vital endeavour of foresight exercises, seem to emerge from the study. Foresight is usually considered conducive to strategic reasoning, research processes and policy development. The status of futures literacy, however, is both undefined and under-communicated as part of a scientific research process itself. What could be a fruitful relation between foresight and

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common research methodologies, in particular methods of sociological imaginations? Could we talk about an epistemology of futures intelligence and consider systematic futures orientations as research activities and therefore also as part of the sociology of knowledge scheme? Would a bridging of qualitative and quantitative methods help us overcome the pre-scientific barriers of present state foresight exercises?

Key words: Foresight studies, epistemology, methods taxonomy.724 words

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28. Scenarios for Setting up Research Priorities, Klusacek K.

Karel Klusacekklusacek@tc.cz

Institution: Technology Centre ASCRRozvojova 135 - 165 02 - Prague 6 - CZ

Abstract

There is a national foresight exercise under way in the Czech Republic (2006-2007) whose objective is to prepare the third National Research Programme (NRP III). About 25% of public financing for R&D is supposed to be allocated to the NRP III (2009-2014).

Technology Centre AS CR is the project coordinator. In devising the methodological approach the experience gained from learning within the ForSociety was also applied. Especially the outcomes of Task 1.4, based on mapping and analysing methods and their use in the national foresight projects of ForSociety partners, were valuable. Although a proper and appropriate use of methods in a foresight exercise, corresponding to the objectives and framework, had been kept in mind in devising methodology for previous national foresight exercises in the Czech Republic (key technologies combined with panels was the methodological basis of the first one in 2001), it is always good and valuable to learn and pay attention to aspects others emphasize or arrive at. First, choosing appropriate /suitable methods and combining then properly is always important. Second, not to fall in the trap of using certain methods only because they are very much in, as used to be the case of Delphi and now is the case of scenarios.Concretely, as far as the use of scenarios is concerned:The Swedish case (the 2nd round of the Swedish‚ Technology Foresight) shows that it is always important to discuss if considered methods may really bring what is expected. The original idea of developing scenarios and using them as a basis for the project outcome was abandoned due to the danger of limiting the discussion on the future development.Learning: Such an experience made us think more critically on the real benefit and appropriateness / suitability of certain (very popular) methods. Scenarios seem to be suitable as a tool for guiding thinking, rather than the goal in itself.

Concretely, as far as the use of Delphi is concerned:We have considered to conduct Delphi surveys before but always abandoned the idea because of time constraints. When we consider Delphi next time we will definitely come back to the experience of For Society partners with this method and its incorporation in the combination with other methods e.g. how France used Delphi to prioritize challenges

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identified in preceding workshops (AGORA 2020) or how Turkey used the outcome of a Delphi survey as an input to panels from a wider group of experts (Vision 2023 Technology Foresight).Concretely, as for the scope of a foresight exercise is concerned: The development in the U.K. seems inspiring: from a broad national exercise covering the whole spectrum of areas / sectors to a new project-based programme, i.e. the Government defines the focus of the exercise first (e.g. coastal flooding, obesity). However, this experience is to be applied on the policy-making level. Application of learning /gained knowledge in the current Czech foresight exercise:We have decided to use the approach of scenarios development only as a tool, incorporated in the process, not as a goal in itself. The methodology we have developed for the current foresight exercise (preparation of the National Research Programme III) consists in a couple of stages, one of them being the work of an expert group, preceded by a desk-research and analytical work mapping the Czech research and economic landscape. The expert group (consisting of about 70 experts, covering a broad spectrum of expertise) was asked to come up with ideas of topics representing opportunities to be met or threats to be avoided in the time horizon of 2015-2020. Research in such topics is supposed to contribute to fulfilling the opportunities or avoiding the threats. We have applied a combination of exploratory and normative scenarios in the methodology, using scenarios only as a tool to lead and structure the thinking process.The work of the expert group results in specified thematic areas for which normative scenarios are developed (in a rather concealed way: the experts are asked to describe the desired state in the future and specify research to be conducted plus systemic measures to be implemented so that the desired state in the future is achieved).

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29. The Role of Support Group in the Polish National Foresight Programme, Kononiuk A., Magruk A. and Nazarko J.

Anna Kononiuk Andrzej Magruk Joanicjusz Nazarkoakononiuk@pb.edu.pl amagruk@pb.edu.pl j.nazarko@pb.edu.pl

Bialystok Technical University, Management Faculty, Chair of Business Informatics and Logistics

ul. Wiejska 45 A15-351 Bialystok, Poland

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to present rationales for the appointment of Support Group in the Polish National Foresight Programme. The first part of the article is devoted to the description of the pilot study of the programme conducted in the research field of Health and Life. On the basis of programme’s errors related to unsatisfactory participation of young people (below 35 years old), the authors of this paper have proposed a new programme’s realisation scheme by bringing a new actor into foresight public debate about the country’s development, namely the Support Group consisting, in its present form, of young academics. The objectives of its functioning are to introduce future beneficiaries of the programme results into research process, train future foresight experts and facilitate the course of foresight action by assisting the members of the Steering Committee. The second part of the paper describes more detailed history of its development and appointment, as well as the assumptions of its activity based on the idea of the cross-disciplinary communication between its members, the Steering Committee, the Foresight Department in the Polish Ministry of Science and Tertiary Education, the Coordinating Consortium and, in the broader sense, Polish Society. Furthermore, a special emphasis is put on the tasks to be carried out by the Support Group, its chairman and secretary. The authors believe that the appointment of the Support Group may enhance considerably the communication processes between key actors taking part in the research process of the full Polish National Foresight Programme.

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30. Technology Foresight as a Policy Tool for Sustainable Development in the Knowledge Society - Lessons from the Greece 2001-2021 Foresight Exercise , Koukios E.

Emmanuel G. Koukioskoukios@chemeng.ntua.gr

Laboratory of Organic & Environmental TechnologiesNational Technical University of Athens, Greece

Abstract

Introduction: An S&T Policy Context

Starting with Japan in the early 1970’s, an increasing number of countries, regions and communities around the world have employed foresight and other exploring-the-future techniques within a policy-making context. This has especially been the case of scientific and technological policies, where foresight products and processes have facilitated major technological, economic and social actors to identify major trends and challenges, develop broadly-shared scenarios and visions, and prepare for “navigation” into the troubled waters of the medium-to-long term oceans. The particular case to be examined in this paper is the recently completed, first ever, National Technology Foresight project for Greece, targeting 2021, i.e., the Bicentennial of the Modern Greek State. The project logo is copied at the bottom of this text.

Points of Interest: “Process or Product?”

The lessons learned from the Greek Foresight exercise can be of interest for other areas and regions, due to a number of its characteristic features:

Strongly participatory processes, tailored-up as a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including scenario-making as story-telling about the future;

Identification and assessment of a number of key barriers and strategic obstacles explaining the endemic, lagging-behind national performance at the European innovation scene; and

Emerging vision of sustainability, from across all 18 project panels and actions, with special reference to the implementation of a particular type of Knowledge Economy and Society (the “Greek Garden of Gnosis”).

Key Lessons: From Methods to Manifestos

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Presentation of methodologies and main project findings relevant to innovation policy will be followed in the paper by a discussion of the major policy-related recommendations addressed to the key actors. A list of the key points to be addressed in those three directions follows:

Methodology:o The issue of linearity vs. non-linearity in understanding and

managing innovation – Managing complexity in the projecto Foresight as a generator of new conceptso Foresight as a navigation tool – Its use in innovation mappingo Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Sustainability – From

Schumpeter to Schumachero The specific methodologies developed and applied to the case;

i.e., scenario-making, as a story of the future, by working groups; combining top-down and bottom-up approaches

Significant Findings and Other Outcomes:o Major project findings relevant to innovation policy: role of

technology strategy, visions, drivers, barriers, change dynamics and pathways, time milestones, and other performance metrics

o Comparative analysis of work on “Mapping the Future”, which was performed by the 13 Working Groups and the other actions of the Greek Foresight exercise, with the use of other approaches, such as the Navigation Model and its main elements (map, compass, performance metrics, barometer …)

o Assessment of the Greek Foresight results and their policy implications - especially those concerning the “Revolution of Knowledge” - in view of the major shift from the existing linear Framework for Innovation and Entrepreneurship to an emerging, non-linear one

o Other lessons from the Greek experience on Regional Innovation systems and pathways applicable to the Greek as well as other transition countries and regions

Policy Recommendations and Follow-up Actions: o Mapping the Future, as a synthesis of the 13+ maps of the

Greek exercise Working Groups – Points of convergence and divergence – Towards a new expedition?

o Strategies and Policies for Leapfrogging, to be based on (a) the updated Innovation Maps, and (b) the revised roles of business, academia, and government within the merging new framework

o The “Manifesto of Delphi”: A Call in the Arms (March 2005), following the end-of-project International Conference

o A follow-up action: the “Delphi-21” Observatory; DELPHI-21 is the name of the Knowledge-Society Observatory

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recommended; this action has the form of an open network of the 5,000+ persons involved in the Foresight activities

o Another follow-up action: The 9th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), with the theme “Science, Society and Sustainability”, Santorini, GR, June 2006.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This paper was written during the period its author worked as a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development (CTPID), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA. The creative encouragement of Nicholas A. Ashford, Professor of Technology and Policy; Director, Technology and Law Program, CTPID MIT, and the constructive comments of Prof. Philip J. Vergragt, Visiting Scholar, CTPID MIT and Senior Associate, Tellus Institute, Boston, are particularly acknowledged.

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31. The Greek Technology Foresight: The Case of Healthcare, Health and Quality of Life - Links among Technology Assessment(TA), Foresight and Strategic Planning, Koukoumas N. and D. Agrafiotis

Koukoumas Nikos and Agrafiotis DemosthenesDept. of Sociology, National School of Public Health

koukoumas@octal.gr, dagrafiotis@nsph.gr

Abstract

Introduction

This article presents the experience and results of a sectoral foresight exercise within the national foresight programme. Also, refers to TA related studies and Strategic Planning activities implicitly linked to the exercise. The need to develop a more systematic and integrated R&TD policy framework was at the origin of a three-year foresight exercise for healthcare, started in 2001 as a sectoral approach but with horizontal interrelations and impact and among other fields and thematic issues.Although the research and technological development policy component has been the primary objective, a broader view of the questions and challenges seemed to be more appropriate in order to comply with the arising complexities and to be able to, also, include questions emerging from socioeconomic challenges.The identification of technological trends and the levels and ways they can shape organizational and healthcare industry structures in the future has been one of the most important issues. The alternative scenarios development has been focused on the socioeconomic trends, technology trends and structures, as well as their mutual interrelations and impact. The abovementioned material has been used as framework to a strategic and operational planning process on public investment decision making, with horizon 2015. The use of SWOT analysis helped to the appropriate elaboration of such a complex mixture of trends, systems, factors, events or other components and to identify possible domains of uncertainty and to define appropriate strategic orientations. Although the focus was set on Foresight, the links among previous Technology Assessment studies and material and Strategic Planning process needs, has proved the methodological complementarity of these approaches.

Mode of approach

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The primary question was the selection of a global / horizontal view over a sectoral one and the formulation of basic issues, questions and thematic approaches such as : (a) health and quality of life determinants trends and impacts; (b) technological trends and effects; (c) health system structure and efficacy; (d) demand for health services; (e) international and European conditions.The emphasis has been put on the interactions among the previous components and their possible effects of an emerging knowledge economy and society.

Mapping present situation & trends

The main components for mapping the present situation and trends is depicted to the demand and supply schema from one side and the actors objectives, behaviours and strategies from the other side. The results of such an assessment can be summarized as follows: Demand side: negative development of most crucial determinants (demography/users, lifestyles, social, economic and natural environment, patterns of morbidity and life expectancy); knowledge society impact is limited by public education and information Supply side: fragmented, low quality and inefficient system; primary care neglected; limited, uncoordinated RTD; innovations difficult to absorb; costs equivalent to 10% of GDP and increasing; investments for new hospitals and improvements of existing ones. Actors – objectives – strategies: - Public administration: partial corrective interventions- Finance–Insurance: status defense, emphasis on day-to-day

management (despite the Social Security financial threats looming ahead)

- Service providers (organizations): lack of coordination, framework, roles, strategy, medical and other functions standards

- Health professionals: Status preservation in the public sector; competition in the private; significant skill gaps; limited growth of new types of services and organizations

- Consumer associations: marginal role; very limited access to relevant decision making (on standards, quality control etc.)

- Users–Citizens: minimal power; growing discontent leading to protests

Scenarios and scenario contentAfter the main trends identification and assessment, a framework of two scenarios has been developed: SCENARIO 1 (Base scenario – No action, trend projection): long-term

negative factors in action; system under continuing stress and decline; low social cohesion; innovation by fashion or as the last resort; quasi-inexistent knowledge economy; a few high-tech “islands” operating in remote areas for high income patients from Greece and abroad.

SCENARIO 2 (Quality of life a priority): long-term negative factors under control; system in reconstruction; emphasis on primary , community-

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level and life-long care; satisfactory social cohesion towards the aging population; public participation; significant technological inputs for prevention, monitoring and treatment; strategic planning; built-in evaluation and assessment elements

The broader critical issues and themes related with Technology and discussed within the scenarios are such as :(a) Future demand and quality of healthcare services, (b) Healthcare efficiency and technology efficiency (taking into account that the sum of local (technology) efficiencies does not lead to global (healthcare) efficiency), (c) Knowledge society and innovation, (d) Competitiveness in EU context, (e) Technologies per users’ needs and/or segments.

Strategy definition conditions

A such a broad range of complexities imposes an in depth assessment and testing as well as the specification of criteria such as feasibility – probability of success – risk assessment and impact assessment in the following areas: (a) Strategy objectives definition, (b) Strategy efficiency criteria, (c) Strategy components coordination.Strategy selection issues and dilemmasIn relation with the scenarios, two mainstreams of strategies are arising with the following characteristics: (a) Resources distributed as usual and / or Resources concentration aiming at World class R&TD, exposed to worldwide competition (no action scenario). And (b) Clusters development in selected domains and / or Global restructuring in health and healthcare science, technology and education domains (restructure scenario).

The strategic plan in healthcare 2007- 2013 (2015)

The abovementioned results of the TA and Foresight framework has been used to the process for development of a strategic plan with horizon 2015. The main focus was on public investment decision making aiming to properly answer on challenges and issues such as : what technologies and structures to develop or adopt. The result of the process has demonstrated three principal strategic orientations to be followed: (1) The public health and the primary care future leading position, (2) The necessary social solidarity shcemes restructuring and (3) The need of healthcare efficiency improvement.

Conclusion

Although health, healthcare and quality of life are of high priority in the Greek society and Policy, the Greek foresight in healthcare suffers from a number of important deficiencies such as: absence of tradition, it is highly conflictual and is politically ‘sensitive’.

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Among the critical factors determining these deficiencies are the absence of social dialogue and the structure and power of invested interests. As far as the methodological lessons to be learnt, the following points need to be addressed: (a) the inability for a real social debate and (b) the fact that such types of processes are guided exclusively by government initiatives. Thus, any course of further actions is defined by inherent rigidities which impose barriers to the implementation of changes.

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32. Learning Theory and its Application in Foresight Practice, KRISTÓF T.

Tamás KRISTÓFkristoftamas@freemail.hu

Futures Studies Department, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary

Abstract

The fact that learning has a significant role in foresight processes is not new, however, theoretical-methodological description and empirical research of this topic has suffered neglect so far. In foresight learning appears on the level of participant individuals, expert and non-expert teams, the whole foresight project and society as well. In the last century behavioural and cognitive sciences managed to develop a rich set of literature in the field of individual and team-learning, and organizational theorists elaborated the conceptual and methodological background of organizational learning.

The aim of this presentation is to adapt the knowledge base of behavioural, cognitive sciences and organizational theory concerning learning at different levels, learning typologies, knowledge creation and knowledge transfer into the field of foresight.

Learning means that as a result of experience, interaction, communication, dialogue, access to new information and observation of other actors a relatively durable change comes to pass in one’s behaviour. Behavioural approaches defined learning as a sequence of stimulus and response actions in observable cause and effect relationships, whereas cognitive approaches equate learning with the change of mental processes within the mind. However, learning has significant barriers. Especially well-qualified experts face behavioural patterns as a consequence of which the accustomed, well-proven action remains and no learning takes place. Double-loop learning is considered to be more effective than single-loop learning.

Constructivism is a cognitive learning theory, which focuses on the mental processes that construct meaning. Learning is fundamentally problem solving, a question of motivating an individual to attach new meaning to past cognitive experiences. The basic guiding principles of constructivism might be applied to design learning environments.

Learning might take place formally, informally and non-formally. It is claimed that many things are learned more effectively through informal processes, so informal learning is argued to be superior to the formal, especially in foresight. The presentation distinguishes between tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge.

From situated learning perspective learning means belonging to a community of practice. We cannot learn without belonging to something

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and we cannot belong without learning the practices, norms, values and understandings of the community that we belong to.

Social learning theory incorporates the principles of learning in a new manner: reinforcement, punishment, extinction, and imitation of models. People learn not only from their own experience but also by observing the behaviours of others. This vicarious learning permits individuals to learn a novel behaviour without undergoing the trial and error process of performing it.

Not only individuals, but also organizations can learn. Organizational learning is again connected to change. During organizational learning knowledge is created within the organization, the knowledge is distributed, fixed into the organizational memory; as a consequence it will become available and usable for decision-making and action implementation. We may regard a foresight community as learning-capable, if it meets the criteria laid towards learning organizations. Participatory processes cannot operate without learning.

Anticipatory action learning is a promising initiative to involve learning into foresight. It seeks to link inquiry, anticipation and learning with decisions, actions and evaluation, during an openly democratic process. Learning incorporates programmed learning, questioning insights, ways of knowing, culture and implementation. Anticipatory action learning places deliberate attention to explore a full range of alternative futures.

Empirical research of learning in foresight was accomplished through case studies from different European countries. The aim was to study how foresight had been performed in various cases from the perspective of learning theory. On the basis of theoretical problems questions were raised, and interactively responded by case study owners. Answers were analyzed, discussed and conclusions were drawn.

Comparative empirical research examined the original function of learning (knowledge production), the role of learning in dialogues, the presence of learning types in different foresight case studies, the impact of learning on dialogue efficiency, the relationship between learning and consensus, the interrelated role of learning and visioning, anticipatory action learning, and the influence of learning (or lack of learning) on foresight. The presentation attempts to display empirical findings of learning in foresight based on as many European foresight cases as the time enables.

It is hoped this study might successfully contribute to the improvement of European foresight, stimulating the participants to further thoughts, and enrich the theoretical-methodological basis of foresight. It is believed that the contents of this presentation might serve as a knowledge base not only for foresight practitioners, but also for experts from other professional fields applying creative team techniques.

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The knowledge base of this presentation has been researched within the framework of the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) T 048539 research program entitled: Futures studies in the interactive society (program leader: Éva Hideg).

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33. Dialogues on Air Pollution: An Asian Example, Kroeze C. and S. Stalpers

Carolien Kroeze and Serge Stalpers

Environmental Systems Analysis GroupWageningen University

Abstract

In this paper, we will discuss dialogues on air pollution control in Asia by comparing two research activities: the RAINS-Asia modelling work and the Asian Dilemma project. We pay special attention to the stakeholders involved, the purpose of the dialogues, the context of the foresight activities, and the participative methods used. The comparison reveals that stakeholders were involved for different reasons in the two projects. In RAINS Asia, stakeholder involvement is meant to ensure model quality and acceptance, while in the Asian Dilemma project stakeholders opinions were used in the identification and evaluation of emission reduction options. As a result, the type of stakeholders involved differs. In RAINS-Asia mostly national experts and policy makers are involved, while in the Asian Dilemma project the representatives from the power sector in industry were probably the most important. In the development of RAINS-Asia the stakeholder involvement is on an ad hoc basis, as well as through workshops. In the Asian Dilemma project workshops and interviews were organised specifically on the issue, as well as internet discussions.

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34. Different Approaches of Pattern Management in Foresight, Kuosa T.

Tuomo Kuosatuomo.kuosa@tse.fi

Internet: www.tse.fi/tutu personnel

Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics

Abstract

Firstly, this article show, what are the most commonly used ways of managing, finding, drawing, reasoning or anticipating patterns from our environment. In order to do such conclusions, I have gathered and merged various qualitative or quantitative approaches, methods and forms of reasoning from different fields of life and science. Secondly, this article analyses, how the concept of pattern can be understood in different ways, - objective and subjective patterns, existing, changing or invented patterns etc. Finally, the concept of emerging patterns, and the ways to anticipate such issues are presented.

The reasoning approaches of Pattern management (PM) are divided into two general categories, in this article. The first one is empirical calculation (EC), which refers to quantitative search of increase or decrease in certain issues within a large amount of data. It is common especially in enterprise consulting. The second one is synthesizing empirical and rational data (SER). It can be further divided into two special types, a) theory proving with observations (TPO), which is common especially in natural sciences, and to b) real combining (RC), which is common especially in qualitative research and in narrative. By the first PM type, empirical calculation (EC), I mean the quantitative search of increase or decrease in frequencies of certain issues within large amount of data. When the work is started according to EC, there does not have to be time series or any hypothesis of the possible findings in advance, but the research theme, database and the observing method are usually very well known at that time. In other words, EC does not refer directly to time series analysis or statistical extrapolation, as the logic of EC is more open and explorative and less fixed to historical findings. Nowadays EC, or data mining by its narrow name, is mostly done by computing, but it can be done by using human observations alone.

To give a few examples, IBM and Google are companies which use EC in large scale in their enterprise consulting work. IBM, for instance, has developed many different kinds of multi-phase data mining software tools for drawing rising peaks of development from large databases, such as

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new acquisitions of companies in a certain field. IBM uses several methods, such as Public Image Monitoring, OmniFind, Web Fountain (IBM 2006), for pinpointing rising or lowering discussion topics from the Internet or for drawing the most interesting Internet sites up-to-date from download statistics. In addition, Google uses its own database, which is collected from Google’s own search service, in order to make sense of the changes in topics people are interested in nationally or internationally. According to the founders of Google, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, Google’s next grand goal is the re-organisation of world knowledge into one search engine. If this attempt will succeed, there may be a new renaissance of EC ahead.

The roots of the second PM type, synthesizing empirical and rational data (SER) approach, are in Immanuel Kant’s (1724-1804) philosophy in which he wanted to combine rational and empirical reasoning. According to Kant, loose empirical knowledge is vain without the capability to reach conclusions and to discover the phenomena behind the findings. Thus, it is the representation that makes the object possible rather than the object that makes the representation possible (Kant 1783). Kant’s approach introduced the human mind as an active originator of experience rather than just a passive recipient of perception. When we see a box as three-dimensional, the shape of the box may not be part of the box’s nature. Therefore, there needs to be not only empirical observations from the surrounding world but also synthesizing by an intelligent agent who can put the observed pieces together in order to make findings and reasoning. Here, Kant and his contemporary philosopher G.W.F. Hegel (1770–1831) emphasized especially the astronomy of their own time and the Copernican revolution. They were very impressed with the fact that the locations, formation, size and weight of planets in our solar system could be drawn from the data of indirect observations from the surrounding space by reasoning and by the synthesizing theories.

The first main approach of SER, a) theory proving with observations (TPO) resembles the logical reasoning method of abduction more than the other forms of Pattern management. The abduction reasoning method is more complex in its structure and can involve both inductive and deductive arguments. The main characteristic of abduction is an attempt to favour one conclusion above others by either attempting to falsify alternative explanations or by showing the likelihood of the favoured conclusion with a set of more or less disputable assumptions.

b) Real combining (RC) is another form of SER. The main difference between TPO and RC is in reasoning. The form of reasoning and refining understanding, which I here call Real Combining, is common in narrative and some forms of literature as well as in many academic fields, especially in qualitative research. Here, I provide two different examples of reasoning according to RC. The first one is Amazon.com, which uses automatic RC. When one starts selecting books to a shopping cart in Amazon, the programme starts suggesting new books – even from new themes – which have often been purchased or viewed by other customers who bought the

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same books one has already selected to his/her shopping cart. Therefore, the software used by Amazon.com makes comparisons and finds relations between various themes automatically to point out some form of meta-knowledge, i.e., subjective meta-information.

Another example of RC could be The Kalevala (1835), the national epic of Finland. Elias Lönnrot used years of his life walking around Karelia, talking with people and gathering oral stories in his notebooks. In the end, he was able to conclude the common nominators of the stories and give them a literary and smoothly running storyline, creating one of the mightiest epics in the world, which in contrast to many other epics e.g. The Iliad and The Odyssey by Homer or The Lord of the Rings by J.R.R Tolkien, is more heavily based on the oral tradition of the people than the creative work of the author.

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35. Management's ability to foresee emerging signs of a strategic change, Lehtinen-Toivola A.

Anita Lehtinen-Toivolaanita.lehtinen-toivola@haaga-helia.fi

Senior LecturerHAAGA-HELIA University of Applied Sciences –

Ratapihantie 13 - 00520 Helsinki - FI

Abstract

Every commercial air carrier company operates in an increasingly competitive and robust business environment. Higher fuel prices, terrorist incidents, sars etc. are big challenges. The carriers’ future is closely tied to their ability to foresee early opportunities and emerging early warnings. In real-life business we speak of proactive crisis management, once the first crucial warnings already occurred.

The study is based on the filter theory of strategic planning processes. The objective of collecting the data was not to try to seek consensus. For the analysis of the nature of filters, sense making framework has been used.

This presentation will examine first what kind of signs managers identified as seeds of strategic inflection point and second, how the estimation of different management levels differed from each other. Thirdly, empirical focus is to provide a glimpse of organizational filters in a business environment.

I have analyzed a case of a global travel agency chain owned by one commercial air carrier. The study is based mostly on 21 management interviews in 14 countries. In this context, managers will be called actors; general managers, area vice presidents and head office representatives. Because there was only one case company, it is not intent to generalize the results and conclusions.

Management judgements are never neutral and the estimation of them is based on daily forecasts. The strategy process must be open for unstructured as well as conflicting sets of information. Filters used in the identification and evaluation of potential early warnings reduce the organization’s sensitivity.

The travel agency chain reached its strategic inflection point and it was downsized during its growth stage. Was the reason insufficient information of emerging early warnings? Or was the produced information misread or not found strategically relevant? The information of seeds of change has to be passed through these filters to influence a strategy process. Thus, did forecasts of early warnings face conflicting interests among different management levels? This study leaves open what impacts would be foreseen if the identified early warnings had been used.

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The analysis indicates that there were only slight differences in the interpretation of emerging early warnings between different actors. When the views of the managers were analyzed, most of the early signs represented high relevance and strong unanimity. The results show that they predicted a likelihood of strategic problems in the future. There were indications from all three filters especially power filter. These filters affected the picture of future strategic intent and need for change.

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36. Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight, Lüdeke M.

Matthias K. B. Lüdeke

Abstract

A common property of all quantitative methods in foresight - from complex dynamic modeling to simple statistical correlations - is that they are variable-oriented. This has far-reaching consequences. Firstly, all of these methods set in after the variables are defined - so the obviously crucial step of variable definition lies outside their scope. Related to this, the concept of the quantitative variable is two-edged: on the one hand it is clearly operationalized by a specific measuring process, thereby standardized and highly comparable, independent from location and time of it's measurement. On the other hand, this has to be paid by "context stripping", i.e. it is abstracted from the original context in which it had a specific meaning. However, using quantitative variables the systematic comparison of a large number of cases becomes feasible - which is important for the explorative empirical-analytical approach in foresight. With respect to statistical evaluation of data with the purpose to make fits for temporal extrapolation or to obtain relations between variables which can, e.g., be used in dynamic system models one specifics has to be stressed: "outliers are no problem". This means, that it is assumed to be irrelevant when the identified interrelation is invalid for some of the observed cases.

The statistical use of quantitative variables has to be distinguished from their use in system analytic models. Here the time-courses of the variables are deduced from their hypothesized interrelations, which allow to evaluate complex feedback nets. This is applicable in foresight if one can formulate explicitly and quantitatively the mechanisms contributing to the process which has to be predicted. A further condition is that the assumed interrelations stay valid and the chosen variables stay relevant during the forecast period.

Quantitative variables may be measured on different scales, allowing for different mathematical operations:- ratio - all math. operations - interval - differences- ordinal - greater than, less than- nominal - discrete, no ordinal relation

The lower the demand for measurement, the lesser the mathematical operations, which are possible on the variables. System-theoretical models

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need variables on a ratio scale while statistical evaluations are possible for all scales.

The characteristics of qualitative data and methods are significantly different. The form of the data is much richer - one can almost state that every information which is not a variable is qualitative data. Typical examples are a text, a photo, a movie etc. The character is exactly the opposite of the "context-stripped" variable: it is a "meaningful but complex configuration of events and structures” or a “singular, whole entity purposefully selected”.

Retrieval techniques for such qualitative data are, amongst others, interviews, observations, oral history, focus groups and Delphi groups which establishes the link to the communicative-participative approach in foresight.

Data analysis techniques are hermeneutics (evaluating text and context), grounded theory (identify concepts across different texts) and others. One important aspect in qualitative methodology is the concentration on each single case. It may even be productive to look for the extreme cases rather than for the typical - in clear contrast to the treatment of "outliers" in quantitative statistical approaches.

The related process of thinking is a more circular one: during the process of foresight activities definitions and even aims may be modified if appropriate - this, again is in clear contrast to variable oriented foresight which is more linear in the sense that after the initial variable definitions are made the process has to stay with them - at least for a considerable time.

One way to integrate the different methodical traditions is on the level of the organization of forecast projects which allow to integrate the results of different quantitative and qualitative methods. This is certainly a step forward but does not guarantee the mutual understanding of the reasoning behind these results - which is a severe shortcoming in the communication process.

Therefore it seems to be valuable to look for or to develop methods at the interface between the qualitative and the quantitative tradition, combining their advantages. Here some new methods which fulfill this requirement are discussed:

Doing statistics with (multidimensional) nominal data: as a two-valued nominal variable is already very close to a qualitative concept (something is either green or not), a, e.g., cluster algorithm on multidimensional nominal data yields rather qualitative constellations than quantitative cluster centroids.

Doing systems analysis with ordinal variables (QDEs after Kuipers 1994): this method allows deducing possible future trend combinations from very loosely characterized feedback structures - it makes the advantages of systems analysis available for only

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weakly quantified systems. This allows fulfilling the requirement of transparency of the model assumptions for the interpreter of the results as formulated in the section on the role of quantitative modeling in foresight.

Doing case study generalization with Boolean Algebra (QCA, Ragin, 1994): this uses boolean variables (with the values true/false) to transparently deduce rules applicable for several cases.

Using qualitative data retrieval and analysis to construct and validate/falsify system analytical models (Luna-Reyes/Anderson, 2003): the purely deductive part of the whole forecast process is done via systems analysis while the - extremely important - remaining steps are done with qualitative methods.

Triangulation (Denzin, 1970): combining, e.g., survey questionnaires with non-standardized interviews. The idea is to corroborate the result by getting it with different methods.

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37. Developing Participatory Foresight Systems and Activities at Regional Level Administration in Finland: How to Boost the Implementation of the Lisbon Strategy at the Regional and National Levels in Europe?, Marttinen J. and Kaivo-oja J.

Jouni Marttinenjouni.marttinen@te-keskus.fii

Employment and Economic Development Centre for Southwest Finland, Ratapihankatu 36, 20100 Turku Finland

Jari Kaivo-ojajari.kaivo-oja@tse.fi, Internet: www.tse.fi/tutu personnel

Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FIN-20500 Helsinki, Finland

Abstract

Foresight is neither prophecy nor prediction. According to Godet (1990) foresight consists of three critical elements: (1) anticipation, (2) appropriation and (3) action. In the FOREN project the fully-fledged foresight model was introduced. According to fully-fledged foresight model critical elements of foresight activities are (1) the foresight methodologies, (2) networking (3) shared vision and (4) strategic decision-making. (FOREN Guide, 2002). It invites us to consider the future as something that we can create or shape, rather than as something already decided. According to FOR-LEARN Foresight On-Line Guide there are four principles of foresight (http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/1_why-foresight/characteristics.htm): (1) action orientation, (2) openness to alternative futures, (3) the use of participatory methods and (4) multidisciplinary research orientation.

There are four characteristics that distinguish foresight from other kinds of future studies. Foresight research is always an action-oriented enterprise. Foresight does not mean only analyzing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors to actively shape the future. Therefore, foresight activities should only be undertaken when it will be possible to use the results to influence the future.

Foresight is always open to alternative futures. In foresight activities stakeholders assume that the future is not pre-determined. The future can therefore evolve in different directions, which can be shaped to some extent by the actions of various players and the decisions taken today. In other words, there is a certain degree of freedom to choose among the alternative, feasible futures, and hence increase the chance of arriving at the preferred (selected) future state.

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Foresight is participatory. Foresight should not be implemented by a small closed group of experts or academic scholars but involves a number of different groups of actors concerned with the issues at stake. The results of the foresight research exercise are disseminated among a large audience from which feedback is actively sought.

Foresight is multidisciplinary research enterprise. Foresight is based on the principle that the problems we face cannot be correctly understood if reduced to one dimension and sliced up like a salami to allow it to fit into the perspective of the different academic disciplines. Instead, foresight research provides an approach that captures realities in their totality with all the variables influencing them, regardless of type (quantitative and qualitative).

These principles of foresight research are nowadays quite well known, but in practical foresight projects these principles are not fully followed by foresight practitioners and stakeholders. It is obvious that various agencies understand the concept of foresight in various ways.

The aim of the article is to elaborate the current Finnish foresight systems in Finland. According to various benchmarking studies Finland is one of the most competitive countries in the world. In Finland foresight systems have been developed systematically during two decades. Special attention was paid to Finnish foresight practices and activities after deep economic recession in early 1990s. During the years 1995-2000 a lot of resources were allocated to foresight research. The critical driving force in the development work was European Social Fund who sponsored many national, regional and local foresight projects (176 projects, 17 million € in the years 1995-2000). After the development phase some critical evaluations have been made. This study summarizes the learning of these evaluations and defines the key foresight processes established during the development phase period. The key foresight processes described in this study are national foresight processes and the most important regional foresight processes. For example, the following national processes are described: (1) MITENNA -labor training and education 2020 foresight system, (2) Education Intelligence Foresight system of the Finnish Economy, (3) ETLA economic 5-year regional forecasts system, (4) National Foresight Network of the Ministries (5) Finnsight 2015 Science and Technology Foresight, (6) National Foresight Forum,(7) Futures Committee in the Parliament.

Concerning regional level foresight systems the following systems are described: (1) Foresight system of the Finnish Employment and Economic Development Centres (TE Centers), (2) Regional cluster modeling and foresight system, (3) The studies of the Need for Workforce and Training (TKTT Foresight Model) and (4) Sub-regional special foresight processes.

In the case of Finland foresight activities have focused on some critical themes: (1) Education and training needs, (2) demand for labor force, (3) changes in qualifications of labor force, (4) changes in different business

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fields and clusters and business life in general, (5) technology foresight, (6) demographic structures, (7) globalization impacts and (8) innovation systems. During the years 2001-2007 special attention has been paid to the co-operation of different actors and agencies and the utilization of the results of the foresight projects.

In summary section authors discuss the current challenges of the Finnish regional and national foresight systems. They use theoretical frameworks of the foresight as background for discussions. One key conclusion is that the four principles of foresight presented by the FOR-LEARN network should be taken more seriously, when foresight systems are developed in Finland and elsewhere. Authors also point out that the element of appropriation is often missing from many foresight activities. Many foresight projects are anticipatory and action oriented, but serious appropriation phase is often neglected. One practical reason for this problem can be complex nature of emerging social and technological networks. Authors conclude that dialogue and appropriation in on-going foresight projects are becoming more challenging because of globalization process, which has impacts on various social, economic, technological, environmental, political and value systems. Many national and regional foresight processes are becoming trans-boundary foresight processes because of globalization process. Concerning the Lisbon strategy authors conclude that the foresight projects should launch at national, regional and local level such activities, which promote the achievement of the objectivities of the Lisbon strategy; economic growth, full employment, social cohesion and governance. Unfortunately this idea is not fully understood in all the EU member countries.

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38. Conflict and foresight: Consensus and Negotiation, Mérida F. and Borch K.

Fredesvinda Mérida1 and Kristian Borch2

Abstract

An important purpose of foresight is to support decision-making in complex systems by reducing complexity in uncertain environments. A key in this process is developing common perceptions about the future, and to balance the objectives and interests of different public and private stakeholders. This process inevitably involves conflicts between short term interests and local prevailed rights where participants need to dissociate to their own definitional problems and make serious efforts to anticipate others. Therefore consensus is often expressed as an important outcome in the commission of foresight programmes.

However, foresight should be more concerned with process as opposed to outcome because outcome in complex systems are distant and unknowable. Moreover too much emphasis on consensus will remove focus from the premise that conflict and change being the "normal" basic social attribute for the potential social change in modern societies. None the less knowledge expressed as consensus of cause can say a lot about future directions depending on two relevant variables: the initial conditions of “ structure of power networking” behind it and the “ core interlocking (inter/intra) of social beliefs and values”.

In this assay we discuss the role of consensus in foresight. Based on negotiation and consensus theory and lending support from national foresight and consensus conferences on gene modified (GM) crops we conclude that consensus should not be the primary goal of foresight processes. Instead we suggest that foresight processes can be facilitated by seeing it as a negotiation process among social actors with focus on search of information and “structure of power networking”.

1. Department Of Sociology and Organizational Analysis University of Barcelona

2. Systems Analysis Department, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark

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39. Scenario as a Tool for Integrated Coastal Zone and Water Resources Management: The Case of Rhodes and Naxos in Greece, Mexa A., Kallis G., Hatzilacou D. and H. Coccosis

Alexandra Mexa1

amex@env.aegean.gr

Kallis2 Giorgos, Hatzilacou3 Dionyssia, Coccosis4 Harris

University of Thessaly

Abstract

This paper discusses the use of scenarios in environmental planning, and more specifically integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and integrated water resources management (IWRM), benefiting from applications in the Greek islands of Rhodes and Naxos respectively. The two cases are related to significant environmental issues: the protection and sustainable management of fragile coastal ecosystems and social systems and the management of scarce, economically and ecologically vital, water resources. The European Commission has prioritized policies for ICZM and river basin IWRM (EC, 1999; EC, 2000; CEC, 2000). This paper summarizes the long experience of the Environmental Planning Laboratory (ex-University of the Aegean, now University of Thessaly) in research concerning the usefulness of scenarios in supporting integrated, strategic environment-development planning (Mexa, 2000, Hatzilacou et al, 2007).

A case for the continued importance of environmental planning in market economies, is made indicating that there are different models to planning, beyond the conventional, top-down rational approach such as incremental planning (Lindblom, 1973), adaptive planning, advocacy planning (Kay and Alder, 1999; Brooks, 1993), radical planning model, equity planning, consensual planning approach (Sandercock, 1998; Kay and Alder, 1999) and various others. Planning may adopt a rational approach, but also transformed into a learning process or a negotiation process. Indeed, there is a shifting emphasis to planning as a communicative process aiming to a co-production of knowledge through the interaction of experts, stakeholders and the public. Within this context the development and application of methodologies and tools to support planning gains a growing interest (Breheny, 1991). Methods that combine public participation with environmental planning functions are increasingly in demand (CEC, 2002).

Furthermore it is argued that scenarios provide a promising tool for environmental planning. Scenarios can be used for strategy formulation, for visioning, for anticipating uncertainty, for policy evaluation (Masini, 1993). Scenario can also support participation through a process which places emphasis on communication, learning, and restructuring of participants mental models (Ringland, 1998; Chermack, 2007). Discussion

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about the advantages and the limitations of scenarios use is made. The limitations identified in the case of scenario use in Coastal Area Management Program (CAMP) are being included. CAMP has been implemented in the Mediterranean region under the coordination of the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP). CAMP has started back in 1990 and is an on-going activity. It is implemented though Country Pilot Projects in several Mediterranean countries. In most pilot projects a study for the long term exploration of development-environment issues has been undertaken. Various methods of scenario development had been applied. A summary of some key criticism with reference to certain case studies and in particular CAMP Syria, Albania, Kastela Bay (Croatia), Iskenderun Bay (Turkey), Fuka ‚Matrouh (Egypt) and Sfax (Tunisia) is provided.

Two applications are then presented: ICZM in Rhodes and IWRM in Naxos. The two applications reflect different approaches and uses of scenarios. CAMP Rhodes was part of the Coastal Area Management Program (CAMP). CAMP Rhodes was initiated in the beginning of the 90s. Elaboration of development/environment scenarios was one of CAMP activities with the aim not to predict the future but to stimulate reflection on the potential consequences of actions or the absence of action. In Rhodes, the scenarios were prepared by a team of experts and high level policy-makers and the emphasis was more on their scientific robustness and policy use. The elaboration of development‚ environment scenarios followed a systematic effort to combine top-down and bottom-up approach, included a spatial specialization of the alternative policy scenarios, and suggested an assessment framework. Eventually the scenarios were incorporated in the formal spatial planning process, although not in a systematic manner. In Naxos, instead, scenarios were prepared in a more bottom-up fashion by a broad range of stakeholders and citizens, facilitating discussion and mutual learning, but being relatively weak in terms of scientific content and integration with policy processes. An analytical description of scenarios and procedures adopted are provided in both cases.

The paper concludes and reflects on the advantages and limitations of scenarios.

1. Environmental Planner, Ph.D., University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, Volos, Greece, 38834, email address: amex@env.aegean.gr

2. Post-Doc Fellow, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, 310, Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050

3. Environmental Consultant, Anatolikis Thrakis 22, Papagou-Athens, Greece

4. Professor of Urban, Spatial and Environmental Planning, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, Volos, Greece, 38834

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40. e-Government 2015: exploring m-Government scenarios, between technology driven experiments and citizen-centric implications, Misuraca G.

Gianluca Misuracagianluca.misuraca@epfl.ch

Managing Director, Executive Master in e-Governance, College of Management of

Technology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (e-Gov-CDM-EPFL)Odyssea, Station Postal 5, EPFL-CDM, Lausanne, CH 1015.

Abstract

Mobile Government (m-Government) is a relatively new phenomenon whose potential is largely unknown and unexplored. However, it is already poised to be the most important subset of future e-Government services. One of the key recommendations of e-GovWorld 2006 organized jointly by SPeG, DIT, NIC and UNDP-APDIP was that joint efforts should be initiated to investigate the use of mobile and wireless technologies for future Electronic Public Services as well as to enhance the reach of existing e-Government applications to larger sections of the society. It was also felt that to understand user perspectives there is a strong need of dialogue among telecom service providers, government agencies, industry and citizens as stakeholders.A number of actions have been initiated in this field, including, for instance, the creation of a knowledge portal and observatory on m-Government to follow the developments in the field as well as start a structured dialogue among the stakeholders (http://www.mgovworld.org); a discussion group titled mGov has been also created to enhance networking and knowledge sharing between practitioners, academia and researchers from all over the world (http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/mGov/).These are just examples of the interest that is surrounding this new concept. Indeed, mobile services and technologies have rapidly, and in some cases astonishingly, evolved. Let’s look for example at the exponential deployment of mobile telephony in some European countries where the uptake of mobile telephony has been quite striking (see the case of Italy for instance, where each citizen holds, at least a mobile phone), and especially in emerging countries in North Africa and Asia.At the same time, several experiments have been initiated worldwide to make best use of mobile and wireless technologies to better service delivery, including eventual coproduction of solutions. For example, with the launch of 3rd Generation technologies, the mobile devices are going to be equipped with additional features of larger computing power, voice, text and multimedia content. This provides a potential opportunity for the government agencies to explore the ways to enhance the outreach of e-Government services with the use of mobile and wireless technologies.

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This is most likely only a beginning. Due the deployment of an overall trend in the building of the Information society, bottom-up and user-driven initiatives are going to spread in an increasingly pervasive manner (let us evoke the “Web 2.0” trend, for instance), playing with light practises, multiplicity of channels, real-time reputation building and informal benchmarking, to force more culturally congruent private public interaction forms to survive rather than others. This ongoing process is also likely to benefit from upcoming technological convergences, such as the one already mentioned concerning seamless interoperability between the wireless domain and the mobile telephony one.Currently about 1 billion users worldwide is actually part of what is defined(sometimes in a very simplistic manner) the Information Society, mostly connected to the Internet in OECD countries. How to realistically reach the next billion users and where do they will reside? How do really bridge the digital divide? Many policy makers, practitioners and researchers claimed for a paradigmatic shift of e-Government solutions, as a driver of transformation of the State, thus an almost linear (and automatic) ICT-driven process leading to better services, costing less and beneficial to all.As a matter of fact, this is not happening. Most complex ICTs projects and e-Government initiatives are a failure, either total or partial (see Richard Heeks, 2003 and others). The introduction of ICTs in government is not producing the expected results foreseen by the “messianic” announces made from Al Gore to Bangemann, and this in both industrialized and developing countries. The so-called “leapfrogging” effects to be realized introducing ICTs, predicted for developing countries, is not actually taking place. Other scholars, and we are among them, also explored the possibility of e-Governance to realize the paradigmatic shift that e-Government is not realized. But changing terminology, however introducing new concepts and multidisciplinary perspectives, even based on a solid theoretical framework, do not necessarily produce practical solutions.The main research hypothesis of the paper is therefore that m-Government in convergence with Web 2.0 experiments and technologies could instead represent the real “change II” mode of transforming relationships among different stakeholders, as well as redefining boundaries and institutional settings, (on this see Rossel, Misuraca, Finger, 2005), thus creating room for the paradigmatic shift that e-Government was supposed to bring about.In this regard, m-Government should not be seen just as a specific area of e-Government (limited to the notion of mobile access), but on the contrary take upon the current dominant movement in favour of mobile technology usages, and steer experiments and initiatives in a way that ultimately benefits to, and even empower better the users and citizens in their various flexibility needs.m-Government is seen by many, in fact, and we are among them, as a potentially powerful change factor, not only in terms of technologies, but especially in the way it will (or at least can) modify the relationships among actors with a more citizen-centric focus.

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But what are the signals, if any, and if there are, are there weak or strong signals of change) that a paradigmatic shift is indeed taking place and if yes, to what extent and with what impact? Moreover, within this particular dynamic, what are the various scenarios that are emerging, or that are possibly to be considered and eventually deployed in terms of policy-relevant and favourable cost-benefit perspective?What lies really ahead of the current achievements is not so much the ubiquitous access paradigm, which somehow constitutes a base line for more ambitious goals, or perhaps new nightmares, than a new cultural horizon for which administrations and governments will have to adapt, much beyond the e-Government stage model. As a matter of fact, some scholars suggest a refined model to understand what is taking place, involving vertical interactions and forms of integrations and overall a pivotal role of m-Government in the deployment of e-Government (m-Government as a tool to get higher forms of efficiency and effectiveness).The paper will therefore attempt to explore this paradigmatic shift that m-Government is likely to produce -at least- in its five main components:- In terms of Information Management, as it will change the way in whichinformation is represented/managed/shared;- In terms of technical challenges that will emerge, for example simply with regard to new forms of data storage required, or new way of distributing access within a network, and so on, etc;- In terms of organizational forms, business models (see for example Web 2.0), that may end up in innovative public-private partnerships for instance.- In terms of Governmental agents, as for example the “efficiency gain” due to the “mobility” of agencies and users.- In social terms, as it will increase the risks and the potential threats of information dissemination with regard to privacy and security concerns forexample, as new mechanisms will be required to cope with the new forms of community of users, with consequences also on the way the communities will organize themselves, and eventually new forms of divides that my arise.The overall objective is to propose a view on m-Government which can be both compatible with fieldwork findings and overall ICTs dynamics. To do this, the paper will first of all suggest a remapping of the m-Government domain, so as to establish key priorities, and eventually helping improve policy planning capabilities in this area.The specific objectives of the paper, to be intended as a work in progress of an overall research activity, will therefore be the following:a) Exploring and mapping mobile e-Government issues, in connection with emerging ICTs trends, by analyzing its brief history and illustrating some concrete activities, with the idea of capturing some attributes of its presumed developmental path.b) Identify some methodological clues in weak signal theory.c) Suggest some policy-relevant perspectives for e-Government 2015 scenario building exercise, and paving the way for further research and analysis.

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41. Regional Foresight: A Mix Methodology for the Identification and Analysis of Future Strategic Sectors, Morato A. and M. Escobar

Ana Morato and Modesto EscobarFundación OPTI

Spain

Abstract

The goal

The main goal of this paper will be to introduce foresight as well as an application of a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies as a tool to select promising technology areas clearly and objectively that is without following any “technology fashion” and taking into account the existing capacities at the starting point. In short, to explain how to apply the road mapping methodology to develop action plans in future strategic sectors.

In addition, the paper will present the advantages of foresight in the design of future strategies at a regional level and in relation to two different notions of the word “region”:

- Region as an administrative concept at a European level and - Region as a geopolitical concept at a multilateral level (Andean

valleys, South American Pacific Coast)The MethodologyIn general, the methodology combines the experts’ knowledge about the individual capacities of the region and their strategic vision of the future with the statistical analysis of the results. For each future technological trend, experts have to evaluate its attractiveness, from the perspective of its realistic importance to the future of region as a whole, and its capability to implement, rule or develop such technological trend. In addition, Opportunities and Strengths of the region are also identified.

Once strategic sectors have been identified, the roadmapping process takes place. Taking into account the knowledge about the current existing capacities, future visions are identified. Such visions set the objective we aim at in the following 5 to 10 years. Then the set of technologies, strategies and actions which are needed to achieve this future are identified by means of the roadmap.Practical examplesTwo recent experiences will be explained:

- “Extremadura 2020” as an example of the implementation of this methodology in a Spanish region.

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- And two multilateral projects financed by UNIDO: “Foresight study on the productive chain of the fishery industry in the region of the South American Pacific Coast” and “The future of products of the Andean High Plateau and Central Valleys: Medicinal plants”

Learned lessonsThe main part of the explanation will show the learnt lessons we can extract from the application of this methodology. Such information will analyse strengths and weaknesses of the methodology in every step; the implication of decision makers, the involvement / mobilisation of experts, group’s dynamic, expected results, etc.

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42. “Exploring Cultural Frame Change: Towards a Capacity to Co-Create the Next Form of Human Civilization by Modeling the Character and Evolution of Human Consciousness and Culture”, Nelson R.

Ruben NelsonExecutive Director,Foresight Canada

Abstract

(1) The paper opens with a definition cultural frames and an exploration of the idea of cultural frame change – a rare but profound evolution and deflection of the most fundamental frames of reference by which a culture makes sense of its world and guides its action within it. (2) The case is made that the 21st Century is and will be a unique time of cultural frame change. It is occurring in every culture worldwide. (3) It is noted that this phenomenon is almost wholly unconscious. Therefore, it is little noticed and its reality and importance ill understood. (4) The case is made that learning to notice, attend to, explore and understand cultural frame change is the central requirement – the sine qua non – for sustained success of the human adventure throughout the 21st Century. (5) A multi-layered model of any human culture is offered; one with a line of sight from its deep unconscious ontological and epistemological assumptions through such matters as our grasp of the cosmos and history, vision of the future, strategic intentions and aspirations, society-shaping goals, management strategies, objectives, work plans to our daily conduct and technologies. (6) A second model is then offered – one that captures the evolution of human consciousness and culture over the 200,000 years we have been homo-sapiens. (7) The potential utility of the models is explored by using them to illuminate some of the swampy and complex issues now faced by humankind, including those seeking to practice foresight.

MotivationI have developed, refined, utilized and taught both of these models over the last forty years in a variety of settings – universities, government policy formulation, research projects, workshops, and with future-oriented clients. However, I have not written them up in a way that they have been offered to the wider community of foresight scholars and practitioners for their comment, use and extension. Given my age – 68 by next summer – it is time to do so. The COST Action 22 conference appears to be an appropriate setting. It occurs to me that a workshop following the conference may also be appropriate, see below. This latter of course is logically independent of the presentation of the paper. Elaboration:Cultural frame change – think of the long transition from wandering tribes of shepherds to settled peoples or the thousand year journey of the West

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from a pre-Industrial form of settlement to the Industrial forms that envelop us today. While the new form grew out of the old, in time it evolved into a form that is sufficiently incommensurate with the old to be recognized as a truly new form of culture. The new form was a new way of doing the human and not merely a new variation on old and well-known themes.

The essential points are these; Every culture is a way of living, making meaning of and responding

to the nature of reality and human persons, and the place of humanity within reality. Therefore, each is an implicit guarantee to its young that if they continue to live in the inherited ways that they and their descendants shall thrive.

To this day, every culture continues to assume that its ways of making sense and living are adequate to the present and the future. That is, no culture, at least as yet, prepares its young with the thought that at some future point in their lives they will have to re-learn the most fundamental things about reality itself, the relationship of the human to it, most human roles and relationships, and that in time such learning will lead to a truly new form of civilization.

The deep confidence in and predisposition to live by inherited forms, of course, do not stop a culture from finding itself in a situation that, in principle, it cannot even comprehend, let alone deal with successfully. If current research is to be believed, up to now, all such cultures that have faced such a truly puzzling crises, have collapsed. In short, sustainability over long periods of time may require that a culture’s deepest assumptions be capable of adaptation in order that they are grounded in the actual nature of reality. To date none meet this test.

For reflexive practitioners this realization should awaken us from our dogmatic slumbers and lead to the following questions being asked and explored:

o Is ours such at time of history? Is the world of the 21st Century taking us, and all peoples, off our inherited mental maps and operational models? Will this trend intensify or dissipate?

o If we are at risk, are we even aware that this is the case? o If not, why not?o What would we have to learn to be and become in order to

develop a culture that is reflexively aware of its situation and able to consciously steer a course through such profound change – both inside and out.

This is the situation my models seeks to address. To be truly helpful, of course, they must be able to shed light on the very situation to which we are called to awaken – that no existing culture is sustainable in the face of the conditions emerging within and around us in the 21st Century and we

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are still in denial about this fact. The evidence suggests that the issue of cultural frame change is not on the agendas or list of strategic issues of any well established government, foundation, corporation or think tank. We still live by the widely-shared illusion that a better version of the culture we know will continue to serve us well tomorrow, regardless of the conditions we face. Given what many of us who are professional practitioners of strategic foresight think we are coming to know about profound change in the 21st Century, this fact should disturb us greatly. It appears that as a species, we are in essentially the same position as the citizens of New Orleans prior to hurricane Katrina – at some abstract level, a few grasped the fact that a category five storm will destroy the city as they know it, but they could not bring themselves to invest enough time and energy to make a credible case about this danger in the face of multiple pressing policy and operational issues.

The models5 I will outline can account for such behaviour. (This maps on to your second and third tracks.) While this is cool comfort to New Orleans, it does suggest, that it is possible to develop understandings of this moment of history with enough depth and power that the damage we do to ourselves and the earth in this century are compatible with human life being sustained at humane levels. However, it also suggests that part of the price we have to pay for the future of humanity is that the reality of both the fact of and need for cultural frame change must be faced, explored, understood and responded to with courage and great creativity. That is, at least some of us must come to understand how and why the cultural frames that have got us to this moment cannot get us through it and what our options are.

Lest this sound too much like the natural gas that flows freely from the foothills of Alberta – my home, let me assure you that this is not the case. On four occasions I have led or participated in a formal research project, all funded by governments, that has pushed the immediate and presenting issues down to the roots of Industrial culture – once in relationship to re-conceiving social policy, once regarding the formation of Canada’s multiculturalism policy, once as a way to understand the foundations required for Canadian environmental policy, and once as a general exploration of the nature, limits and evolution and transformation of Industrial civilization. I have also found that these models inform my consulting work, especially in relationship to the design of projects that must include citizen participation and community development (These maps on to your Dialogue track.)

Possible WorkshopI have developed a 2 day workshop that gets at these matters in an experiential and participatory manner. In addition to theoretical concepts and arguments, participants get an experiential feel for what it is like to take on a sensibility that is fundamentally other than that of the Western 5 The Foresight Canada model of human cultures can be seen as a form of Causal Layered Analysis. However, our model was developed wholly independently of the latter. Understandably, there are both similarities and significant differences.

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Industrial sensibility that still dominates the official space of West and, increasingly, the rest of the world. They also get a sense of what will be involved in learning to recognize, work with the evidence that the human future, if there is to be one, lies beyond the cultural frame in whose grip we now live.

I would be happy to think with you about the presentation of this workshop in Athens after the conference, should that be of interest. This is a gentle offer, which can be easily rejected. There is no “sell” here.

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43. The Slovak Foresight Exercise, Nemcova E.

Edita NEMCOVÁ*

progedit@savba.sk

Abstract

As one of the country cases compared in the framework of COST A-22 (Working Group 3) provides the paper a brief overview of the first Slovak foresight exercise carried out in the years 2003 and 2004. Since WG3 identified three main phases of the interactions between researchers, decision makers and the public as Dialogue, Vision and Dissemination, these three aspects have been the basic points of the analysis.The first part of the paper focuses on the motivation and the background of the foresight exercise. Being confronted with an increasingly competitive climate each country is forced to its own continuous competitiveness growth. Along with intensifying competitiveness is more attention given to policy measures assigned to enhance the performance of domestic firms. Slovak Republic has been a member of the EU since May 2004. To become a full-fledged member of the EU, and not just a part of an underdeveloped region, can only be achieved by continual competitiveness and performance growth. Contemporaneous processes of globalisation put stronger pressure on new member countries to specialise and develop coherent policies. In this regard one of most decisive priority on both national and regional levels has been the transition to a strong knowledge-based economy with its growing invention and innovation capacity. EU has underpinned these issues in recent version of Lisbon strategy. Slovak Republic has joined both the Lisbon strategy and the Stockholm and Göteborg summits with the elaboration of program Minerva as well. Therefore developing or modifying the national science and technology policies towards continual competitiveness and performance growth turned to become inevitable. This was the first reason for formulating a science and technology foresight up to 2015. National Foresight programmes have been implemented in several new EU member countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic. In Slovak Republic up to 2003 no long-term foresight of development and utilisation of science and technology, using of the method technology foresight, has been elaborated. This was the second important reason for undertaking this foresight exercise.Taking into account the above-mentioned facts in 2002 the Slovak Government approved the elaboration of science and technology foresight up to 2015 via a relevant state programme using technology foresight as method. Technology foresight has been defined as a method of collective learning and knowledge creation, which takes into account the social dimension but in the same time, is less demanding than social foresight.

* Ing. Edita NEMCOVÁ, PhD., Institute for Forecasting, SAS, Šancová 56, 811 05 Bratislava 1; e-mail: progedit@savba.sk

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The Slovak Government appointed the Ministry of Education to prepare and commission a public tender for elaboration of a science and technology foresight up to 2015. The foresight should aim mainly at specifying selected thematic and systemic science and technology priorities. After providing this general information about the foresight programme continues the paper with analysing the exercise itself according to the above mentioned three aspects. The Slovak foresight exercise was aimed at the elaboration of science and technology foresight up to 2015 with regard on the future requirements, opportunities, threats and challenges. Generally, the main objective was to identify the most important systemic and thematic research and development priorities as a basis for elaborating the new science and technology policy directed towards transition to knowledge-based economy. Selection of priorities was based on a combination of both supply-driven and demand-driven science and technology themes. The foresight exercise was financed by Slovak Ministry of Education via a relevant state programme. According to its objectives the programme was divided into three stages with the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences as the coordinator. The long-term foresight of science and technology was elaborated as multidimensional future developmental directions. These are based of present state-of-the-art research, technological development and social awareness and their inter-relation as well. Because of the EU membership and the catching-up process two types of scenarios were supported for each field of investigation: pessimistic and optimistic. Based on these partial scenarios final research and development scenarios were designed – pessimistic (pessimistic euro-strategy) and optimistic (optimistic euro-strategy). The first one means full membership in combination with industrial economy, the second one means full membership and knowledge-based economy.The main contributions of the Slovak technology foresight exercise could be seen in following:

Support the Slovak government in formulating science and technology priorities for elaborating the future policy strategies, such as science and technology policy, industrial policy, environmental policy;

Increase knowledge; Build assumptions for future international cooperation by elaboration

of common foresights using the technology foresight method.

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44. Russian industry-energy foresight: project and first results, Nikitaev V. and G. Afanasyev

Vladimir NikitaevDeputy-director of the department for economic analysis and long-term

planning of the Ministry of industry end energy of the Russian Federation

Georgy AfanasyevDirector of Expert club of industry and energy

Abstract

The Ministry of industry and energy of the Russian Federation started working on Russian industry-energy foresight (RIEF) in December 2006. Metallurgy, Chemistry, Power engineering have been chosen as top-priority and immediate research areas. The RIEF’s first outcomes will be available in June 2007 and we will tell about it in the course of the conference "Exploring new ways to explore the future" in Athens. At present, the Government of the Russian Federation prepares a number of documents in order to determine long-term perspectives of Russia’s strategic development. Particularly, a forecast of scientific and technological prognosis of Russia’s development until 2025; a Conception of long-term social-economy development of Russia. It’s planned that foresight methodic will be used extensively in the course of these activities, especially during RIEF.

The Ministry of industry and energy of the Russian Federation considers RIEF not only as a contribution on the Government’s strategic activity, but as an instrument and process of Industrial policy. In its new consideration, Russian industrial policy – cooperation of different types of political actors restricted by legal frameworks (law system) on areas, methods and means of development of industry-energy sector of Russian economy. The Ministry of industry and energy of the Russian Federation acts in this area of industrial policy targeting a high level of competitiveness and security of the country. The Ministry takes account of at least three frames:

Russia’s global positioning factor; it determines an analysis of global markets, positions of Russian companies on the global market and abilities of advancing positions of Russian companies

strategy construction frame. Strategies and comprehensive plans for development – nowadays, it’s one of the fundamental instrument of Russian industrial policy. Strategy’s elaboration leans on the forecasting, scenario construction, perception of risks. In fact, strategies and comprehensive plans represent a consensus between the government and private business. At the same time they represent a project’s aim of state-private partnership in the broad sense of the world. We stick to a formula of state private partnership as follow: co-ordination of targets, combining efforts and sharing of

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risks between the government and business. Each part undertake risks which it’s able to control, minimize and cover

frame of strategy regionalization, solving different questions by means of diverse types of recourses including human potential

In 2007 the Government of the Russian Federation is to approve “Development strategy of metallurgy of the Russian Federation until 2015” and “Development strategy of chemical and petrochemical industry of Russia until 2015”. Work is underway on the new version of energy strategy of Russia until 2020. These three areas are of the highest importance for Russian economy.

RIEF – one of the key component of elaborating the strategies listed above. Selection of metallurgy, chemistry and power engineering as foresight’s areas takes account the fact of strong interdependency of these areas. RIEF includes following phases:

Brainstorming and project-analytical session “Russia 2050” with participating of high officials of the Ministry of industry and energy of the Russian Federation, representatives of UNESCO, Russian and foreign companies working in energy sector. In the course of this conference it’s planned to identify “future’s character” of world and Russian industry, power engineering and finance and education’s spheres;

SWOT-analysis of industry sectors, accomplished in the frameworks of suitable development strategy;

Expert panels as systematically functioning foresight’s instrument and elaborating development strategies of industry;

Delphi analysis by industry and energy Expert club within the framework of website of the Ministry of industry and energy of the Russian Federation (http://www.minprom.gov.ru/); inquiry themes are determined by two “datum lines”: social-economy effect and realizability of new technologies;

Technology road-mapping; Recommendations for the Government and business.

Non-profit organization “Expert club of industry and energy” plays key role in the course of RIEF. Specially designed web-infrastructure also plays significant role in the foresight project. Expert club regularly holds sessions of suitable sections. Also, Expert club is a web-infrastructure on the website of the Ministry of industry and energy (http://www.minprom.gov.ru/expertise ). The web-infrastructure includes: registration system of experts and a system of expert groups managing; a system of Internet-questionnaires.

Creation of wide branched communication network is to be one of the most significant outcomes of RIEF’s first round. The communication network will contribute not only to already adopted strategies, but to foresights of broad range of activities.

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45. The Future of Stem Cell Research, Plougmann P.

Peter Plougmann

Abstract

A Danish foresight project “The future of stem cell research” conducted by the private Danish consulting company New Insight A/S and funded by the Danish private, non-profit foundation Tryg-fonden has for nearly six years applied a number of different innovative approaches to the interaction between researchers, decision makers and the public. The project examines the possible social impacts and risks of successful research into stem cell research and therapy. The basis of the project is that one of the greatest future challenges for us as a society has not been subject to a thorough, educated public debate. Thus, the project has mobilized numerous stakeholders by utilizing an innovative mix of scenarios, dilemma plays, bottom-up communication and personal networking.A monthly news letter called “The Stem Cell Observatory” has been published online for the last three years. The observatory traces early indicators related to four scenarios which were originally developed five years ago, making it one of a few long-running attempts to substantiate and validate scenarios. The project continues in 2007, where the scenarios will be revised according to the findings of early indicators.

The Challenges

Stem cell research creates big headlines in the news all over the world. It also creates public fear and political as well as ethical uncertainties.The promise of stem cell therapy of curing serious and deadly deceases like cancer, Alzheimer and diabetes is creating huge expectations. Even if there are still many technological difficulties to overcome, major new insights are reported almost daily. Transplanted stem cells from umbilical cord blood have, as an example, been reported to transform into heart cells and to have repaired damaged tissue in the body of a patient.Stem cell therapy is by the public often wrongly confused with the cloning of animals, enhancement of human genetics and other spectacular research activities. The popular press often focuses on the “Frankenstein” stories adding fear and fuelling the conflicts between technology optimists and their critics. The Catholic Church has on numerous occasions condemned the biotech industry in general and stem cell research in specific. All over the world, politicians have asked ethical committees for advice. Political restrictions on embryonic stem cell research are imposed in some countries such as

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the US, Germany, Spain and Denmark, but not in others such as UK, Israel, Singapore and Korea. This is creating new interesting divides between global technology leaders and followers. In the last couple of years new players have entered the marketplace following the growing investments in stem cell research facilities in China and India. All in all, the case of stem cell therapy contains all the conflicts and contradictions of a rapidly emerging technology creating many uncertainties.

The Project

In order to address these uncertainties and create an informed input to the public discussion on what kind of risks might be acceptable in the near future in Denmark, the privately funded foresight project was launched in 2001 with the purpose of looking into the “Future of Stem Cell Research” in Denmark. The specific focus of attention is not on the technology as such, but rather on the potential impact on society, the demographics of the country, the political decision-making process, the functioning of the health care institutions, the structure of the welfare system and the regulation of research. After careful examination of the issues, four different scenarios have been developed, all of which have been tested on a number of focus groups representing different stakeholders. The stakeholders involved have represented groups of patients, all of which may benefit from the research in the future, the biotech industry, marketing bureaus, politicians, special interest groups and university researchers dealing with risk communication, science and innovation, patent systems as well as social science. The project has applied a number of different scenario methods designed to involve and increase the participation of multiple stakeholders. Special focus has been on “stories” and designing "dilemma plays" without requiring much insight into research and the medical issues of the stakeholders involved. The plays serve as a means to involve a broad range of stakeholders such as the business community, universities, young people, interest groups and the public at large in a debate on acceptable risks and trade-offs related to stem cell therapy. One basic assumption behind the project derives from the book “The Tipping Point" by Malcom Gladwell. By using a bottom-up communication strategy utilizing the strength of loose ties and personal networks, a powerful impact on the public debate is expected.The paper will present the results of the research report, which contains a brief explanation of what stem cells are and an examination of some of the consequences stem cell research may have for an ageing society. The report furthermore examines the importance of stem cell research in relation to the Danish health service and focuses on the barriers, concerns

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or scepticism that biotechnology encounters. Finally, the report points to some problematic perspectives of success full stem cell research for Denmark in the future.By the end of 2006 more the 4.000 persons have attended dilemma plays or/and presentations given by the project’s research team. In addition, more than 1.000 copies of the research report and more than 5.000 copies of a popular discussion paper (based on a comprehensive research report) have been distributed to interested parties. Furthermore, the project has during the last close to three years published a “Stem Cell Observatory Report” as a monthly web-based newsletter. The newsletter has the highest search rate on the Trygfonden website for the last two years. The observatory traces early indicators related to four scenarios which were originally developed five years ago, making it one of a few long-running attempts to substantiate and validate scenarios. In an innovative attempt to quantify the huge amount of qualitative information (obtained as part of the work on the Observatory) the research team has developed a list of indicators that illustrates and synthesizes the overall trends in risk perception and technological development by using a single graph. This has proven to be an effect mean of communicating with a greater audience. The project continues in 2007, where the scenarios will be revised according to the findings of early indicators. The paper will - in addition to presenting the design and results of the project - discuss some of the practical difficulties of fostering participation and getting stakeholders to accept outcomes that are alternative to what is normally expected in a foresight process.

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46. The Viewpoint of Anticipation, Poli R.

Roberto PoliUniversity of Trento and Mitteleuropa Foundation

Abstract

My paper will sketch aspects of the theory of anticipation as developed by the late Robert Rosen. According to his framework, “an anticipatory system is a system containing a predictive model of itself and/or its environment, which allows it to change state at an instant in accord with the model’s predictions pertaining to a later instant” (R. Rosen, Anticipatory Systems, 1985, p. 341; 2nd ed. 2008).

Generally speaking, anticipation concerns the capacity exhibited by some systems to tune their behaviour according to a model of the future evolution of the environment in which they are embedded. The thesis is then defended that the main difference between forecasting and scenarios on the one hand, and anticipation on the other, is that the latter is a property of the system, intrinsic to its functioning, while the former are cognitive strategies that a system A develops in order to understand the future of some other system B (of which A may or may not be a component element).

I shall present the main features of an anticipatory model and analyze some of the ways in which it can go wrong. The main outcome result of this exercise is the proof that no one model whatsoever is capable of capturing the full potentialities of a complex system. This result traces an unbridgeable boundary to the capacity of computer simulations: it proves that complex systems are not recursively, or numerically, computable. Although this limits severely the usefulness of all digital computers in complex systems, it does not render them useless for experimentation, data collection and analysis or graphical representation of numerical results.

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47. Will Entrepreneurship, Knowledge Management and Foresight Emerge in a system?, Puga A.

Arturs Pugaarturs_puga@yahoo.com

Forward Studies Unit - Latvia

Abstract

The paper considers some ideas, concepts and frameworks evolving in interrelated foresight activities (2003 - 2007) by Latvian Council of Sciences, Latvian Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Riga Technical University and Forward Studies Unit based on methodological support and experience gained at the European Foresight area.

By definition of European Guide to Good Practice in Knowledge Management (CEN, 2004) „KM is planned and ongoing management of activities and processes for leveraging knowledge to enhance competitiveness through better use and creation of individual and collective knowledge resources”. Foresight – „thinking, debating and shaping the future” increases strategic intelligence capabilities for policies, industry, innovation, education, research etc. Intelligence is “the ability to understand and think about things, and to gain and use knowledge.” Scoping foresight research/project/initiative, in the author’s opinion, foresight activities and KM processes can be perceived operating in indissoluble unity. European foresight projects, e.g. Knowledge Society Foresight and Euforia, eForesee paid great attention to KM challenges, issues and tools for foresight research.

Application of knowledge on knowledge management (both personal and organisational) seems to be of particular importance dealing with foresight in New Member States. It tends to increase in the light of the Lisbon objectives and post-Lisbon policies. Findings of foresight exercises indicate that realities of entrepreneurship ‘as the mindset and process to create and develop economic activity by blending risk-taking, creativity and/or innovation with sound management, within a new or an existing organisation’ could be promoted and incrementally strengthened by understanding of processes of producing knowledge, including creating, converting, sharing and communicating it, of working with communities in the strategic context of business enterprise/research organisation. The author points to outputs and results of foresight workshops in Latvia/Europe and thinks that understanding of KM terminology and processes enables active and effective participation of researchers in foresight projects facilitates foresight culture at both individual and organisational levels.

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Visioning S&T policies Latvian foresight is engaged in identification of challenges using STEEPV framework (social, technological, economic, ecological, political and values) and of what is called ‘seeds of change’. An exercise “Foresight and strategic planning skills for Latvian agricultural research: 2011” was accomplished in 2006. The research was aimed to collect future intelligence, identify driving factors and actors against the strategic context of agricultural and rural research, prioritize importance of trends and synthesize generated thoughts into scenarios, and present outcomes for potential conversion into knowledge of policy makers, business people and research community. The role of foresight activities in processes of strategic thinking, strategic development, and strategic planning has been discussed in the exercise. Findings (reflected in two scenarios - one of possible futures and one of preferable futures) are reported in the paper. A forward look on impact of identified trends is offered also from the author’s viewpoint. Lessons and implications derived from the collective work, e.g. learning and interactions between stakeholders, are highlighted in the contribution.

The article looks into attempts to elaborate a conceptual model of KM and foresight approach and activities useful for corporate projects and foresight exercises. The application aims at increasing business and employment opportunities and/or collective research capabilities of SME/research team. As follows, an actual model might be aligned with the SME/research organisation knowledge strategy and KM strategy, and a tool - Knowledge Management System designed and adapted.

A case of personal KM for the job at hand, e.g. knowledge work within a project or foresight exercise, can be developed to meet research challenges and issues. PKM model may encompass:

Assets and processes (A set of ideas, concepts, approaches, methodologies, and frameworks. Understanding of and skills in disciplines and research areas that are to be integrated in producing knowledge and applied into transdisciplinary work.)

Tools (For searching and capturing information, and creating, organizing and sharing knowledge. Knowledge repositories and databases that help individuals take responsibility for what they know and who they know.)

Designed objectives & defined goals (These require knowledge to perform the job at hand, and knowledge owned to reach his/her objectives in the present and/or the future.)

The author looks into details on how the model can be applied to an ongoing foresight exercise.

The paper supposes that insufficient attention to modern foresight, KM discipline and knowledge area combined with an old-fashioned (obsolete) understanding and practice of entrepreneurship implies to the systemic inertia/resistance to change inherited from deeply embedded mindsets, patterns of education and business relations.

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People exist in communities – self-organising and adapting to environment (to spiritual, economic, ideological, political meta-framework established in their “meta-company” – in Eastern Europe this metaphor may be applied to a national state in making). Such "meta-companies" and interconnected and overlapping communities have their own "system/systems of values". By the author, for many cases „knowledge" and “intelligence” is not prioritised in existent and self-developing "systems of values" across the world. From that KM and foresight seems an elitist phenomena (like the Lisbon strategy’s commitment to "knowledge and knowledge economy") for a society of New Member State. Value system of business company/community, the community’s internal change process in the context of KM opportunities and foresight culture is a challenging field for European research.

Foresighting post-Lisbon process/European research policies and priorities, challenges like a paradigm shift, advanced leadership and shared commitment to discover benefits of knowledge management and foresight to a society (for sustainable entrepreneurship) could be put on agenda in the EU. The article indicates to options, resources and measures in the field of S&T policy referring to findings of Latvian foresight activities at national/European level.

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48. Utilisation of Delphi based Future Information in Agri-Technology Foresight - A Case of Modern Technology in Finnish Agriculture, Rikkonen P.

Rikkonen, Pasipasi.rikkonen@mtt.fi

MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic ResearchLuutnantintie 13 - FI-00410 Helsinki - FI

Abstract

The introduction and the ultimate choice of different technological solutions play a central role when focusing on developing new alternatives for more efficient environmental and production practices in the agricultural sector. In this study we scrutinize alternative technological changes (desirable and probable futures) with the Delphi method. The study concentrates on three technological themes: 1) the future alternatives in agri-production technology, 2) the future alternatives in the utilisation of renewable energy sources within agriculture, and 3) the future alternatives of bio and gene technology in agricultural production. The study produces alternative future images and paths of development for agri-technological change and the utilisation of different technological solutions. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process. First the needed general and specific expertise (an expert panel) was defined in relation to the study themes. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second round (a feedback round) with a mail survey. The results are presented as desirable and probable future images and paths of development. Furthermore in the analysis the quartiles, minimum and maximum views were utilised.

An essential element of this study was a policy dialogue phase which was organised after the second Delphi rounds. The policy dialogues are carefully constructed meetings that address both politically controversial and technically complex aspects. Policy dialogues seek to exchange information and build consensus recommendations between the public, private and civic sector. Typically policy dialogues are useful in complex regulatory, policy and community situations in which multiple stakeholders, contending values and challenging procedural dynamics are involved. In this study the dialogue was organised for relevant agri-technology stakeholders. Also the Delphi panellists were invited to participate. Altogether 30 experts were gathered to discuss the study findings and to bring into the discussion their own, argumented future views. The dialogue were organised to catch three main issues in the agri-technology field: 1) the main driving forces, trends and changes in agri-technology operational environment, 2) the most important decisions to be taken in order to achieve the desirable and possible future (vision), and 3) identify the future research needs for policy support and decision

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making. The reason to establish this kind of a forum was to bridge the gap between policy planners, decision-makers and researchers and find ways to strengthen the dynamic co-operation between policy and research. The results of the study were introduced in a form of background notes, which were used as input information for the discussions. The background notes focused on the following three studied themes and their results.

In the first theme of agri-production technology no dramatic changes were seen in the total sales of the agri-production machinery. The total sales seem to settle to the level of the long-term average of the past ten years. The total quantity of machinery may decrease, but the operating efficiency increases. Also, the specialisation of machinery increases. The automation and robotics in the machinery diminish the need for labour force and the purchase price per unit increases. Furthermore, the contractors and also cooperation in purchasing collective machinery in crop production increase. At the same time there is a tendency towards more extensive harvest machinery systems. In the second theme (renewable energy sources), the panel stated that there has not been much support for small-scale and local energy production systems. Therefore the increase in renewable energy sources was seen strongly desirable. The Delphi panel anticipated that the increase in bio-energy production in farms results job opportunities in rural areas, and the dependence of imported energy in Finland decreases. The respondents believe that the wood is still the most important bio-energy source in farms in the near future. There are also other strongly developing energy sources such as biomass production (bio-fuels) and especially the potential of bio-gas production within livestock production for both heating and traffic fuel purposes. The panel called for practical demonstrations and cases to point out and ensure the profitability and usability of such new possibilities. In the third theme, the bio and gene technology, the most emphasis was on new transgenic crop varieties in agriculture. The panel anticipated that 40% of the total cultivated area in the world would be under commercial farming of genetically modified plant varieties in 2025. In Finnish agriculture the development in transgenic crops was seen to be somewhat moderate. The possibility of developing plant varieties that contain salt or dry durability qualities (or cold durability in North) brings large benefits at the global level. The panel saw possibilities also beyond the traditional agri-production; for example in promoting bio-energy production, in increasing the efficiency of biological processes in plants, utilising bio-technology in the treatment of waste and in the treatment of sewage in farms.

It is notable that the presented future paths are not forecasts, but bring into a discussion alternative future developments. Also, it has to be kept in mind that these results tell us how the chosen expert community sees the future of these three technology themes in the national context in Finland.

Keywords: agriculture, Delphi method, technological foresight, futures studies, renewable energy sources, bio and gene technology, agri-production technology to be clean.

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49. Meta-framing: The Art of Putting Weak Signals in Perspective, Rossel P.

Pierre RosselPierre.rossel@epfl.ch

http://cdm.epfl.ch/

Deputy DeanCollege of Management of Technology, Ecole polytechnique fédérale of

Lausanne,Odyssea, Station 5, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland,

Abstract

This paper attempts at revisiting a classical theory (weak signal treatment in futures studies) through the master concepts of framing and meta-framing, with a few clues regarding their application potential. Our first duty is to revisit Ansoff seminal work, emphasizing a series of disturbing issues that have emerged in recent years, before actually introducing the concept of framing and then meta-framing to attempt at overcoming some of the limitations hinted at. Finally we will envisage a series of domain and contexts of applications, not so much as illustrations, but as generic analytical categories.

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50. Metaphor as a Method, Ruttas-Kuttim R.

Ruuta Ruttas-Kuttimruuta@hot.ee

Centre for Development of Public AdministrationPirita tee 20 – Tallinn - EE'

Abstract

As Lakoff & Johnson claim, the way we think, what we experience, and what we do every day is very much matter of metaphor. The power of metaphor is so strong that it is pushed away from science as something dangerous. But for exploring and explaining new thought or thing we have to use metaphors, as otherwise it is difficult to get the picture or give the message to other people. And thinking or talking about the future is always very much a new thing. Different metaphors create different associations and mental maps and so they create different research methods and give different focuses. Every metaphor contains its own method. Using unconsciously only one metaphor (as we can˙t avoid them anyway) is the problem, not metaphor itself. Instead of being afraid of metaphors for their power, we can use this virtue of them as a helpful tool for developing methods. If one has certain research idea, there is always a question, how to approach it„ what theory to choose and what methods to use? This paper gives some examples how existing metaphors like seeds of change, and weak signals guide us to different roads of exploration, what are their favourite theories and how these metaphors answer to some research questions. One example is given to show how to develop new approach with new metaphor.

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51. Development of Foresight Methodology in Poland Case Study: Machine Construction and Maintenance, Sacio A. Szymanska, Mazurkiewicz A. and B. Poteralska

Anna SACIO-SZYMANSKAcAdam MAZURKIEWICZ

Beata POTERALSKA

Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute (Poland)

Abstract

The paper presents foresight methodology for forecasting research priorities of scientific institutes operating in the field of machine construction and maintenance. The article gives an overview of foresight projects carried out in Poland against a background of initiatives undertaken in EU countries. Although interest in foresight in Poland has been growing rapidly the experiences of Polish foresight practitioners in this area are limited. The results of the analysis pointed out the necessity to develop foresight methodologies adapted to Polish specificity. Authors developed foresight methodology for application in large R&D units operating in the field of machine construction and maintenance. Due to the complex and interdisciplinary character of the field, the methodology combines quantitative and qualitative approaches and stresses the key importance of applying expert-based methods. The methodology has been verified on the example of emerging technologies – nanotechnology.

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52. Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology, Sapio B. and Nicolo E.

Bartolomeo Sapio, Enrico Nicolo’bsapio@fub.it

Fondazione Ugo BordoniVia Baldassarre Castiglione 59, 00142 Roma, Italy

Abstract

Many research activities have been carried out over the years in the area of scenario methodologies, but no great efforts have been devoted to facilitating the fruition by end-users of the results obtained through the application of these methodologies. That is, enormous attention has been paid over the time to theoretical aspects of formal scenario methods but the gap between analytical details of the ensuing findings in various application fields and the necessity of easy-to-learn knowledge by decision makers and strategic planners has not been adequately bridged. In other words, again, the only availability of complex mathematical outputs has often discouraged top managers from adopting suggestions derived from the utilization of the relevant methods and has frustrated the precious potentialities of their conceptual frameworks and computerized tools.

Therefore, methodological and technical efforts have to be made in order to both make scenario methodologies more effective and help key decision takers with their work. These attempts can be made even by exploiting the tools offered today by technology, in particular by the “networked hypermultimedia” epoch which we are entering, characterized by the evolving global digital superhighway infrastructure and dominated by the huge planetary diffusion of the networked hypermedia World Wide Web. Scenario modellers should integrate the capabilities offered by technology within the process itself of scenario creation, from conception to delivery in order to potentiate the development of their methodologies and, specifically, to transfer them effectively and efficiently to strategic end-users. In this way, comprehension, interpretation, acceptability and usability of scenario methods and their results can be facilitated and increased.

In sum, both a theoretical framework and a practical context are necessary to provide methods with a conceptual and instrumental “interface” capable of adequately transferring “scenario knowledge” to strategic managers who need easy- and ready-to-use highly aggregated and concise elements. To this purpose, we introduce here some fundamentals of scenario transfer methodology and technology, which are developed within the logical framework of scenario engineering.

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53. Tool Transfer, Appropriate Adaptation? The Use of Delphi in National Science and Technology Foresight Exercises, Saritas O. and M. Keenan

Ozcan Saritas & Michael Keenan

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the diffusion across space and evolution across time of a well-known futures method, the Delphi, in national Technology Foresight (TF) exercises around the world. A number of large national TF exercises have used the Delphi method over the last decade or so in regions as diverse as East Asia, Europe, and Latin America. For the most part, the aim of using Delphi has been to obtain the views of experts on future developments in technology-related issues with the purpose of setting better informed public spending priorities on R&D. In many instances, the results are also expected to be useful to other actors in research and innovation systems, e.g. companies, which might use them to improve their anticipatory intelligence. The approach remains popular, particularly among those countries carrying out a TF exercise for the first time, yet few, if any, meta-reviews of its use and impacts have been carried out across several countries.

Taking this as a starting point, the paper examines national TF exercises conducted in eight countries over a decade (1993-2003), including Japan, Germany, UK, Hungary, Austria, Spain, Brazil, and Turkey, where the Delphi method was used. We seek to uncover the origins of the use of Delphi in these exercises and to critically examine the meanings given to the approach and its purposes. We are also interested in tracing the diffusion of Delphi across space and time – the actors involved, the arguments for and against the use of the method – and to the ways it has been adapted, if at all, for local use. Finally, we reflect upon the local experience of using Delphi – its benefits and limitations, whether expectations were met, and any reported impacts. The paper should prove not only useful to those planning to use the Delphi method, but should also lend insights on the transfer and adaptation of TF tools across space and time.

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54. Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight, Saritas O., L. Pace and P. Stalpers

Ozcan Saritas [1], Lisa A. Pace [2], Serge I. P. Stalpers [3]

Abstract

Foresight has become an institutional activity as more emphasis has been given to the active participation of stakeholders to shape the future of society. As a key element of Foresight, participation improves the quality of Foresight exercises through the engagement of both scientific and non-scientific knowledge, and their values and preferences. It is through the participation of stakeholders, that mutual understanding and learning among participants are achieved and thus the legitimacy of Foresight exercises increases. The overall objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive and practical reference for the foresight audience on how to accomplish and sustain participation. In this respect the paper aims to contribute to filling the current lacuna with regard to literature addressing participation in Foresight.

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55. Foresight Lacquer: Layering Futures Tools to Amplify Impact (Case Study), Schultz W.

Wendy L Schultzwendy@infinitefutures.com

Institution: Infinite Futures: foresight research and training.JB Lewis B503 - Wolfson College - Oxford OX2 6UD – GB

Abstract

This paper presents a case study of scenarios created for the UK\'s Health and Safety Executive depicting possible future contexts for health and safety issues (2017). The programme required scenarios to wind tunnel not only policies and programmes, but also how emerging issues might play out in different contexts. The scenarios\' performance would be assessed by the degree to which: a) they challenged thinking; b) they provided enough detail to connect to a wide variety of policies and issues for wind tunnelling; c)they emerged from a solid evidentiary base; and d) they connected to / acknowledged other related foresight work (both scanning and scenarios).

To meet these performance goals, the project design relied not on one scenario building method, but on a layered approach. HSE chose the classic \"drivers matrix\" approach to scenario building, informed initially by a mix of horizon scanning and interviews to identify key issues to incorporate into the scenario process. The rough scenario output from the workshop was then \"lacquered\" with the following methodologies:

o The VERGE ethnographic futures framework;o The Integral Futures four quadrant analytic framework;o Systems thinking / diagramming; and o Story archetypes.

The result was four "research scenarios" that included both depth of detail and a strong evidentiary base. These were then abstracted into shorter, vivid "workshop scenarios", that HSE is using to future-proof policy and programme formulation as well as widely varying emerging issues.

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56. Business Wargaming: Developing Foresight within a Strategic Simulation, Schwarz J.O.

Jan Oliver Schwarzmail@joschwarz.com

The Berlin University of the ArtsAdelheidstr. 34, 80796 Munich, Germany

Abstract

While the development of foresight is a crucial activity for any organization, especially in times of increasing dynamism and complexity, the question of how to develop foresight remains. The aim of this paper is to introduce business wargaming as a tool for developing foresight. Wargaming, a role-playing simulation of a dynamic situation, has been used particularly by the military but more recently has also been used in the context of competitive intelligence and strategy-testing in organizations. A business wargame typically evolves several years into the future, allowing the participants to “experience” future dynamics and, consequently, develop foresight. This paper argues that, because of its participative and dynamic nature, business wargaming can overcome cognitive barriers, challenge mental models, detect weak signals of change in an organizational environment, re-direct attention in an organization, and eventually help an organization develop foresight.

Key words: foresight, business wargame, scenario, strategic simulation

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57. On Contexts and Their Dynamics, Simon K.H.

Karl-Heinz Simonsimon@usf.uni-kassel.de

University of Kassel - CESRKurt-Wolters-Str. 3 - 34109 Kassel – DE

Abstract

Foresight always needs some kind of structural regularities in order to be successful or at least helpful and inspirational. However, what kind of such regularities can be applied and what is their ontological or methodological statues is a matter of deep and strong dispute amongst researchers, philosophers, and those involved in problems of practical decision making. In recent decades, a crucial shift has occurred altering the focus of interest from strict coupling between phenomena and causal explanations to processes of self-organisation and the framework conditions imposing restrictions on planned or running re-organisational and creative processes. Beside the problem of understanding the dynamics that lead to future system states, it is especially the problem of intervention into the processes of development or unfolding of new system states that is discussed in that context. In my contribution, however, I intend to focus on a more specific problem within that broader problem context, the importance of framework conditions and their dynamic change related to attempts to conceptualise the seeds of change paradigm.

The “seeds of change” concept is based on the idea that within a certain innovation area several competing change nuclei are emerging, some developing in a successful way, some failing and disappearing in the course of progressing time. The question now is, are there specific framework conditions recognizable that allow an explanation (the weaker challenge) and / or prognosis (the stronger challenge) about which seeds will survive and which will fail, or in case of success, what growth characteristics and time constants for selected seeds could be anticipated.

The idea is that in order to approach that challenges it is useful to look on the dynamics of framework conditions. There are several approaches and theories about such dynamics, e.g. in social change theory and transitions management philosophy. The most promising approaches are, in my opinion: big cycles (like that of Kondratiev), societal and cultural fluctuations (Sorokin), technological or societal transitions regimes (Rotmans), and cycles in ecosystems development (Holling).

Kondratiev waves (long waves, ‚super cycles) are the term for a regular S-shaped cycle in the modern (Capitalist) world economy of fifty to sixty years in length. High growth periods, acceleration phases, saturation

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periods and decline phases are following upon one another. The Holling cycle, also called adaptive cycle, is an explanatory tool to describe dynamics in complex (ecological or societal) systems. It could be shown that such systems alternate between long periods of aggregation and transformation of resources and shorter periods that create opportunities for innovation. Phases in these cycles are: growth or exploitation (r), conservation (K), collapse or release (omega), reorganization (alpha) with different strategies applied in the different phases like the r-strategy (many pioneers) or the K-strategy (few complex units).

Up to now, the different concepts are not well discussed with respect to their interrelatedness or their differences, especially in our context of diverse discourses about foresight methodologies, e.g. in the problem area societal dynamics. In any case, however, there seem to be a lot of intersections and it seems to be reasonable to look in more detail on the heuristic or explanatory power of these concepts.

Thus, in order to make that approaches applicable in our context, the following questions have to be answered:

How are these different approaches related to each other? For example, how do transition phases fit into the historical, larger cycles and societal dynamics? Are these transitions time sectors in those global dynamics?

What conceptual basis allows for integrating the qualitative interpretation of time sectors within cycles (decline, pioneer phase, etc) into the quantitative analysis of empirical data about change processes?

After having gained some answers about these questions, examples for seeds of change and their destinies are discussed. As examples Social Innovations are selected and the appearance and significance of alternative modes of living (communes, eco-villages) are in the main focus of the assessment. In part, previous work by Rolf Schwendter will be used who wrote a History of the Future in the 1980ies and correlated utopian visions and ideas about how the future would/should look like with Kondratiev cycles in the version that has been worked out by Ernest Mandel. What can be shown on the basis of Schwendter’s analysis is a curious change in the contents and the mood of those visions due to their historical context, and that is the important finding‚ that context is a highly dynamic one influencing, more or less strictly, the visions and the conditions for success of social experiments.

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58. Willingness-to-Use Models for Climate Policy, Stalpers S.

Serge Stalpers

Abstract

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) approaches are increasingly used in the development of regional climate policies. Such approaches ensure consideration of multiple perspectives on climate change, while simultaneously respecting decision stakes. This is expected to increase commitment to the acceptance of climate policies.

Integrated Assessment Models have been applied extensively in these assessments to provide quantitative scientific insights of future consequences of climate change policies. Models have therefore become an important source of information for participants of PIAs. Here we examine how participants assess their willingness-to-use (WTU) model results in PIAs that support climate policy appraisal. Participants are more likely to use a model if they perceive the model output to be valid, comprehensive and trustworthy. They often assess WTU implicitly based on their own expectations and on scattered information provided by scientists. The information needed by the participants therefore depends on the WTU criteria they implicitly use. This varies with their perspective and the aim of their assessment. Scientists can use various analytical methods to provide the relevant information to help participants assess WTU, including sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, scenario analysis, and more elaborate frameworks that simultaneously address perspectives and model assumptions.

We argue that WTU assessment of models occurs in many different ways but rarely in a systematic manner. Information provided by scientific analytical methods rarely corresponds to the criteria that participants find relevant for assessing WTU. The WTU criteria used by PIA participants include not only model accuracy but also relevance, transparency and credibility. Summarizing, there seems to be a mismatch between scientific approaches and participants’ needs.

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59. Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: A Methodological Framework, Stratigea A. and M. Giaoutzi

Stratigea A. and M. Giaoutzistratige@central.ntua.gr giaoutsi@central.ntua.gr

National Technical University of Athens

Abstract

The power of foresight as a means to achieve sustainable paths to economic and social development is gaining ground in the new economy, bringing forward a rapidly increasing complexity and risk.

By its definition, foresight is a future oriented activity aiming at supporting improvement of decision making processes. As such, it has to cope with the large degree of uncertainty involved in long term decision making within a turbulent environment. Scenario planning thus constitutes an integral part of any foresight exercise, as an efficient methodology for future exploration used both as a strategic planning tool and an effective learning tool, aiming at increasing performance when dealing with different futures and coping strategies.

Despite the increased globalization of the world, motivating processes and changes at a global scale, the regional scale seems to be the most promising level for foresight exercises coping with globally emerging challenges, as many researchers claim. The essence of such a statement lies on the fact that thinking in terms of scenario planning implies a proactive approach, within which one has to deal with driving forces, key factors, key actors and their interaction, being the milestones upon which the future is been shaped. Such elements are more manageable at the local/regional level, while moreover a common vision of the future can be reached more easily on the basis of locally-shared future expectations.

The focus of the present paper will be on the study of scenario planning as a tool for regional future studies. In such a framework, chapter 2 presents the development of the concept of scenario planning, chapter 3 deals with key aspects in scenario planning, chapter 4 presents a methodological framework for scenario planning, while finally chapter 5 draws some conclusions based on certain case studies and identifies future prospects

Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, regional scale, methodological framework.

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60. Interplay of Narratives and Calculations in the Scenario- building Process. Based on the Experience of the “Estonia 2010” Project, Terk E.

Erik Terkerik@eti.ee

Estonian Institute for Futures Studies,34 Lai St., Tallinn, Estonia

Abstract

Regarding scenario descriptions as constructs created by one set of people (planning consultants) for practical support of another (decision-makers, stakeholders, etc.), the issue of the interplay of narratives and numbers can be solved in various ways. The verbal text could only represent the “dressing”, which the analysts have donned on the outcomes of their modelling for the ease of customary use; as another extreme the numbers can only serve as a secondary addition to storylines created in a qualitative manner. However, in a more complicated case the building of scenario descriptions could become an iterative process, at some stage of which some calculations provide basis material for the writing of qualitative texts, while at another new challenges for calculations would emerge from the compiled storylines. These calculations would in turn lead to a complementation and modification of the previously written verbal texts etc.

The paper will describe the experience gained from the use of various types of calculations and modelling in the developing of predominantly qualitative scenario texts in order to create base material for discussions on the alternatives of Estonia’s social-economic development. Some basic hypotheses were formulated at the first stage of the work concerning the determinants of Estonia’s economic growth in the following period (dependence of investments on the country’s geopolitical position and the dependence of economic growth rate on the volume and structure of investments) and initial calculations were formed based on these rough hypotheses. Next, in the process of elaborating the scenario texts, it became necessary to expand the system of economic growth determinants with new components (the impact of technological modernisation, especially at the later stages of the development cycle), which set tasks for new calculations as well as the formulation of qualitative descriptions of institutional mechanisms of development and policies.

The scenario package developed in this iterative manner could be used both for launching a discussion with the decision-makers and stakeholders and it opened at a later period new opportunities for its further quantitative (macroeconomic modelling) and qualitative (e.g. description of probable sub-regional development patterns) elaboration.

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The paper will also address the issue of the adequacy of the narratives and numbers presented by the scenarios being validated by hindsight.

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61. Considering Foresight as an Intervention within an already Existing Future Oriented Debate: Renewing the Approach for the Design, Implementation and Evaluation of Foresights ?, Treyer S.

TREYER Sebastientreyer@engref.fr

Institution: AgroParisTech / ENGREF19 avenue du Maine - 75 732 Paris Cedex 15 - FR

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to look at foresighting activities within the conceptual framework of future oriented debates, analogous to the models of hybrid fora developed in the sociology of science, and also analogous to models of strategic conversation, developed in the field of strategy. A future oriented debate consists of the succession of foresight processes and foresight products on a common theme, and of the community of persons and institutions associated to their discussion.

In such a perspective, a foresight exercise can be considered as only one element or one part of a longer lasting debate. We therefore propose that building a foresight intervention might usefully be considered as the design of an intervention in such a future oriented debate, with the objective to improve its quality. We also propose that the quality of such a debate can be improved on two of its dimensions:

-improving the quality of the representations of the future that are made use of in the discussion,

-improving the accessibility of the forum to new emerging stakeholders and points of view.

Such a perspective might help renew the approach for the design, implementation and evaluation of foresight: all three steps (design, implementation and evaluation) must therefore be centred not on the foresight procedure per se, as if no future oriented debate had existed before, but with specific reference to the initial state of the forum, before the intervention (e.g. what representations of the future were used before, what representations of the future are used afterwards; who was participating to the discussion, who is now participating).

Based on the example of the international debate on future water scarcity and on the examples of foresight exercises like the World Water Vision, we will illustrate that such a conceptual framework seems relevant and useful.

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62. The Future in the Stars – European Policy Making and the Exploration of the Future, Van der Ven K.

Karin H.J. van der VenUniversiteit Maastricht, the Netherlands

Abstract

The increased popularity of the systematic exploration of the future as a specific professional practice, referred to as “futures studies”, in recent decades seems to be a clear depiction of our fascination with what is unknown and still to come. Futures studies try to imagine this unknown and uncertain future in a consistent manner. (Van Asselt, 2005; Ringland, 2002). A shared aim of futures studies is to reduce or address uncertainty, in most cases to serve policy.

It is clear that future explorations may take different forms (scenarios, forecasts), and be created according to a wide variety of methods. Also, the potential role of future explorations in policy has been somewhat elaborated upon. Explorations may be used as input in the policy process by giving impulses to policy change, or to explore the potential effects of policy changes, including for example the social base for change. The use of futures studies in actual policy practice has received rather little attention (exceptions are for example Dammers, 2000; and Schoonenboom, 2003). A possible explanation may be the methodological challenge that is posed by the fact that future explorations do not have an established role within the policy process. They can be used at different moments, and their long-term perspective makes the range of possible moments of interference with a certain policy domain endless. The rare studies so far have been primarily focused on the national policy-making process in a particular domain.

The aim of this paper is to contribute to studying the use of futures studies. Building upon a case-study on the EU Turkey accession dossier, I aim to give some insight in how the future is dealt with, both formally and informally, in policy-making, specifically in relation to long-term policy-dossiers. The focus of this paper is on the EU policy-making process, not only because it has deserved little attention thus far, but also because this attention seems to become all the more relevant since national policy is increasingly derived from policy-making processes on the European level. The Turkey-EU accession dossier seems very apt. The first initiatives toward Turkish accession developed in 1959, and the goal of Turkish membership has since then not disappeared from the dialogue. Recently, the issue has become all the more topical with the start of accession negotiations.

The method employed to answer to the research question is primarily qualitative and explorative in nature. I focused on the degree to which future exploration receives attention in the Turkish accession dossier. To that end, I made an inventory of relevant policy documents produced by

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the primary policy-making bodies (European Commission, European Parliament, and Council) created over the period 1959-2005, and evaluated them in terms of their reference to a) institutionalized future explorative practices; and b) reference to the future in a broader, informal sense. Furthermore, an input-focused perspective was taken to create an idea of the availability of future explorative bodies and insights to policy-makers in this specific field, in order to make a statement about whether the degree of integration of future exploration and policy-making is due to choice or lack of availability of the former. Next to that, a couple of in-depth interviews with policy-makers were part of the case study research.

Our findings suggest that within the EU policy-making structures there does not seem to be a single body endowed with the task of exploring the future for the sake of grounding policy. Where those bodies (or sub-entities) existed, they have been dismissed and do not seem to be missed. The production of futures studies, where this takes place at all, tends to take place as part of the policy-making process (directly yielded by a policy-making question) and by the policy-makers themselves. Input of external future explorative institutions (which is available) is generally left unused and definitely not connected to the policy-process in a formal structure. The findings furthermore suggested that EU aims to plan the future rather than exploring it. Next to detailing the findings, in the paper potential reasons for this situation will be discussed, involving issues pertaining to futures studies as such, the nature of the policy-making process on EU level, and the specificities of the Turkey-EU dossier.

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63. Linking Futures Research with Management Science: Improving Innovation and Strategy Processes within Companies, Van der Duin P.

Patrick van der Duinp.vanderduin@tbm.tudelft.nl

Erik den Hartigh

Delft University of Technology, faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

Jaffalaan 5 - 2628 BX Delft – NL

Abstract

Results of futures research are not a goal in itself but should be an input to decision-making processes. To make sure that futures research is being used in decision-making processes, it should take into account the type of decisions for which it is used. There are many types of decisions, such as about which idea for an innovation to develop, what kind of corporate strategy to develop, or what type of innovation policy to implement. In this paper we concentrate on decisions that are taken within companies. Management science studies the behaviour of companies. Innovation management, marketing, and strategy are examples of domains of management science. When futures research is used for decisions taken within companies it must take into account the general principles of management science in general and those of, for example, innovation management and strategy. In fact, these domains are the context of the decisions to which futures research is an input to. Though perhaps not as explicitly as futures research itself (with its approaches, methods, and processes), the concept of the future plays an important role in these domains as well. In this paper we investigate how the future is being addressed in the innovation domain and the strategy domain. Based on the insights obtained guidelines can be formulated which futures research should take into account if used for decisions in these domains.

Innovation is strongly related to the future. Innovation processes can take quite some time which gives a lot of room for new developments to emerge. This means that a promising idea for an innovation (based on an envisioned future) can be countered by specific changes in technology, economy, or society. Certain future expectations might turn out not to be true and will be replaced by other future developments. On the other hand, unforeseen future developments can enhance the probability of an idea for an innovation. This all means that every innovation process should take into account the future in an explicit way. But the numerous wrong predictions of market diffusion of new products and services illustrates that the use of futures research in innovation processes is not without

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problems. A common explanation is technology push which neglects the influence of important societal and market developments on the acceptance of innovations. But only taking into account societal and market developments can limit the window for innovation opportunities as well. That is, new technological possibilities will probably not be captured if one only focuses on societal and market developments. This might result in failing to assess the impact of (autonomous) technological developments on society and market. It seems that carefully balancing the nature of the innovation process and the innovation with how futures research is carried out is essential. Not only to the potential success of an idea for innovation but to the use of futures research in innovation processes as well.

Like innovation, strategy is closely related to the future. In essence, strategy is about how a company pictures its future and how to realize that future. Strategy is about what steps and decisions a company should take to be prepared for the future. So, every strategy process can, in principle, benefit from futures research. Again, carrying out futures research should be in line with the strategy process. The diversity in types of strategy processes, whereby bottom-up and top-down can be considered two extremes, should be mirrored in the futures research process. For instance, the results of an interactive and almost ‚democratic (i.e., involving many different stakeholders) futures research process will be hard to accept by the general management of a company that is used to a top-down way of working. On the other hand, a study of the future solely carried out by difficult to approach experts will not be of much influence on a strategy process in which many different people (both within and outside the organization) are involved.

In general, the quality of a futures research process and its results is not only decided by how this process is carried out. Equally important is how these studies of the future are used for: improving decision-making within companies. Therefore, it is important that futures research connects to the process and type of decision-making processes it is intended to feed. A futures researcher would not like to hear that his work doesn’t meet certain standards as well as that his work is simply not relevant to the company and its decision-making process. Relating the type of futures research to different decision-making processes within organizations is crucial, both for the decision-maker and the futures researcher. Futures researchers should not only improve their work by improving futures research methods and process, but by connecting their work to that what it is meant to support as well. Therefore, futures researchers need to understand not only the immediate context (i.e., the decision-making process) but the organizational context of decision-making processes as well. A better conceptually understanding of the principles of management science can be considered a fruitful way to improve the quality of futures research.

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64. Foresight as a Means to Modulate Socio-technical Trajectories: Learning from Science and Technology Studies, Warnke P.

Philine Warnke

Philine.WARNKE@ec.europa.eu

JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

Abstract

With this contribution we would like to pick up on the insight that "if the field is to develop conceptually and professionally, underlying methodologies need to be developed and improved" (CostA22 conference call). Rather than investigating a particular Foresight method, the paper is looking at "underlying methodology" of Foresight in the sense of assumptions regarding the nature of technological change that are underlying the use of Foresight as technology policy instrument. By exploring insights from social sciences we aim to derive elements towards a more substantial rationale for Foresight processes to support policy makers in modulating socio-technical trajectories. Accordingly, the paper focuses on the use of Foresight in support to innovation policy or technology policy as an element of other policy fields such as environmental policy of transport policy.Thus the paper is setting out to explore on which methodological grounds Foresight may claim to be able to impact on the complex process of co-evolution of technology and society and thereby support technology policy makers in pursuing certain agendas. For this purpose the paper is exploiting insights from Science and Technology Studies (STS) which are looking at technological change as an integral element of societal change from an interdisciplinary social science and humanities perspective. Central to STS is the idea that technology co-evolves in a complex interaction with society which is reflected in both the design of individual artefacts and systems, and in the direction or trajectory of innovation processes. Different routes are available, potentially leading to different technological outcomes. Although STS interpretative frameworks differ widely comprising such diverse perspectives as cultural studies, the SCOT programme (social construction of technology) and actor network theory they all depart from the need to explain the direction of technological change other than from an inner logic of "technological progress". Within many in-depth empirical studies STS scholars have investigated determinants of the process of continuous opening and closing of technological options and its embedding into its social and cultural context. It seems obvious that these insights on the "social shaping of

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technology" are highly relevant to underpin Technology Foresight which can be seen as another process of negotiation of socio-technical options among societal actors. Through better understanding some of the complexity of socio-technical change it seems that the chances of modulating this process are greatly improved.Within this paper we develop some of the linkages between the STS body of knowledge and Foresight methodology that seem to be particularly fruitful.As a first step we give a short review of the main lines of argument generally being used by the Foresight community itself to put forward Foresight as a Technology Policy instrument such as:

Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument that is fostering innovation capability

Foresight orienting innovation towards societal needs Foresight as agenda setting process Foresight as a provider of anticipatory intelligence as a base for

long term decision making. The paper then turns to STS to see how these arguments can be linked to STS perspectives on the nature of technological change. Some relevant insights on the character of technologies, as well as their social implications, that are problematised and opened up for enquiry in STS and link up to the Foresight rationale are highlighted. Particular emphasis is placed on the insights of STS on the important role of expectations and visions within socio-technical change and on the high relevance of downstream phases of the innovation process such as appropriation and embedding into specific context of use that has been exemplified by many STS studies.In a next step we ask how these insights relate to the conceptualisation of Foresight as technology policy support tool. As an immediate result it turns out that much of the rationale for Foresight as a powerful innovation policy instrument can be substantiated by STS insights. Indeed it seems that the tremendous complexity of socio-technical change as stressed by STS findings points to processes of moderated stakeholder dialogue such as Foresight as one of the few possibilities for policy makers to even slightly intervene into this process at all. However there seems to be a need to rethink or rather refine the functions Foresight can actually fulfil. Based on the linkages with STS insights a slightly revised set of functions of Foresight for Technology Policy is suggested in the paper.Finally some cautioning insights from STS regarding Foresight practice are highlighted. It is pointed out that in order to impact on the complex co-evolution process of society and technology, Foresight needs to tackle the social dynamics of change more diligently. In particular Foresight visions need to better reflect the complexity of societal change by taking into

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account e.g. unexpected forms of social approbation of technology. Some suggestions are made on how to take on board these insights in practice.

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65. Philosophical tools for dealing with unexpected events and developments, Wolf F. O.

Frieder Otto Wolffow@snafu.de

Institute for Philosophy, Freie University BerlinThielallee 43 - D-14195 Berlin

Abstract

The paper focuses on Contradictions‚ as generators of unexpected shocks, and relates this to the challenges of referring to reality ‚out there‚and of reconstructing normative-cum-instrumental prudence in coping with them.

The different dimensions discussed for the strategic concept of sustainable development ‚ economic, environmental, social, institutional ‚ may be used as a pointer towards identifying emerging issues: Even those which still are, as it were, ‚below the radar line‚ of existing foresight methodology. In this perspective, carefully looking at existing elaborate theories of economic, environmental, gendered, and politico-cultural reproduction of human societies, as they exist in philosophy, sociology and historical anthropology will provide useful indications towards articulating a space of potential problems not yet clearly emerging, but unavoidable in a long-term anticipation. This is proposed as a tool for building a specific capacity for anticipating unexpected events and developments. More specifically, it is argued that the notion of contradiction can be given a new elaboration to serve this purpose. Once the will overcome the traditional confusions of prevailing forms of dialectics are overcome, they can contribute strongly to the production of a useful tool for identifying such potential lines of antagonistic processes inherent in existing sub-systems of the present global political ecology of humanity, long before they begin to emerge in concrete, measurable processes.In order to achieve this, some of the most articulate and theoretically reflected contributions of recent Marxist, Feminist, and Ecologist to a diagnosis of the global crisis constellation are analysed in terms of distinguishing between empirical trends and ‚underlying contradictions‚ identified by them. More specifically, recent contributions of political (Brenner) and overdeterminist (Wolff) Marxism, of discourse-analytic‚feminism (Butler) and of eco-feminism (Salleh), as well of eco-centric ecology‚ (Del√©age) and of radical political ecology (Lipietz) are examined in this perspective.

Furthermore, it can be shown, that the ‚3rd position of Critical Realism (Bhaskar, Archer) between empiricism and constructivism may be helpful in referring to more general structures of the reality out there which are not yet concretely realised in emerging processes, and therefore not yet fully constructed as objects of experiential knowledge. This is used for building a methodological bridge between foresight methodology and

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theoretical insights to be achieved into more general structures affecting concretely existing societies, which helps to distinguish sources and types of risk and danger, of uncertainty and indeterminacy, as well as of ignorance and lack of knowledge.

It is then proposed to arrive at further narrowing the scope of possible scenarios to be considered in such a critical realist perspective, by reconstructing the central functions of the traditional, normative-cum-instrumental notion of prudence‚ without relapsing into the implicit authoritarianism inherent in ideas about prudent‚ leadership (H√∂ffe), or in neo-aristotelian constructions of the good life (Nussbaum). Instead, a polycentric construction of prudence is proposed to be based on the combination of explicit as well as implicit knowledge possessed by all participants in a societal poly-logue, with clear criteria for just and legitimate claims. This includes a review of the debate on philosophical theories of justice since Rawls, with a special emphasis put on the ideas of the interdependence of human societal relations with bio-spherical processes underlying human ecologies‚ as they are inherent in such theories of justice. It is argued that they offer a perspective going beyond looking for vulnerable parts of the system‚by looking at comprehensive vulnerabilities of the system in its entirety.

This is so, it is argued, because the conjunctures of the emergence and elaboration of comprehensive theories of society or of history, as well as of philosophical theories of justice are not themselves independent of historical reality. On the contrary, they do provide powerful pointers to shifts in the way real processes are framed and lived by the broad majority of the multitude of men who continue to be the most potent source of unexpected shocks or turns of events in political history, as it may affect the system as a whole. By specifically reflecting the ways in which they are embedded in the conjunctures which bring them forth they may be used as a key to deciphering deep trends in the reality of their historical world.

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