metals & energy march 3, 2016 - aditya birla group · gold’s intra-trend remains down till...

Metals & Energy March 3, 2016

Aditya Birla Money Limited

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Market synopsis Precious Metals

Base metals

High Low Close %Chg OI


MCX

MCX (Rs/kg)

Gold(April) (Rs/10 gm) 29,391 29,079 29,339 0.4 11,333

Alum.(March) 108.5 107.1 107.7 0.3 2,035

Silver(Mar) (Rs/kg) 36,151 35,680 36,051 1.2 10,963

Copper(April) 328.8 325.0 328.3 1.2 14,311

Gold Mini (Rs/10 gm) 29,240 28,960 29,219 0.4 16,545

Lead(March) 122.9 120.7 122.8 1.4 2,829

Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 36,600 36,112 36,516 1.1 8,900

Nickel(March) 603.9 588.7 589.9 (0.3) 15,422

COMEX (US$/oz)

Zinc(March) 122.9 121.3 122.5 1.1 4,571

Gold(April) 1,244.8 1,225.1 1,241.8 0.9 460,814

COMEX (US$/Ib)

Silver(Mar) 15.00 14.76 15.00 1.8 164,788

Copper 219.6 214.1 217.8 1.7 167,451

Ratios

LME Inventory levels

in US$ in US$ Ratio

Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg

Gold v/s Oil 1,241.8 34.7 35.8

Aluminum 2,751,100 2,755,600 (0.2)

Gold v/s Silver 1,241.8 15.00 82.8

Copper 190,750 193,475 (1.4)

Lead 211,475 211,475 0.0

Energy

Nickel 440,502 439,932 0.1


Zinc 471,525 475,100 (0.8)

MCX

Cr. oil(Mar) (Rs/bbl) 2,382 2,280 2,341 (0.1) 25,180

Currency

Nat.gas(Mar) (Rs/mmbtu) 118.2 112.9 115.3 (2.8) 24,002

Close Prev close %Chg

NYMEX

Rs/US$ 67.5462 67.5462 0.0

Cr. oil(April) (US$/bbl) 35.2 33.6 34.7 0.8 1,825,566

US$/EUR 1.0868 1.0868 0.0

Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) 37.4 36.1 36.9 0.3 2,166,209

US$/GBP 1.4078 1.3952 0.9

Nat.gas(Apr) (US$/mmbtu) 1.75 1.66 1.68 (3.7) 1,057,917

JPY/US$ 113.4800 114.0100 (0.5)

Pivot Levels MCX levels

Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3

Gold 29,584 29,495 29,412 29,339 29,266 29,183 29,094

Silver 36,421 36,287 36,162 36,051 35,940 35,816 35,681

Aluminum 108.80 108.40 108.03 107.70 107.37 107.00 106.60

Copper 331.24 330.18 329.18 328.30 327.42 326.43 325.36

Lead 124.49 123.88 123.31 122.80 122.29 121.73 121.11

Nickel 601.8 597.5 593.5 589.9 586.3 582.3 578.0

Zinc 123.67 123.23 122.81 122.45 122.09 121.68 121.23

Crude oil 2,421 2,392 2,365 2,341 2,317 2,290 2,261

Nat. Gas 119.46 117.95 116.55 115.30 114.05 112.65 111.14

International levels

Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3

Gold 1,257.26 1,251.65 1,246.43 1,241.80 1,237.17 1,231.95 1,226.34

Silver 15.19 15.12 15.06 15.00 14.95 14.88 14.81

COMEX Copper 222.068 220.500 219.043 217.750 216.458 215.000 213.433

Crude oil 35.93 35.47 35.04 34.66 34.28 33.85 33.39

Br. Crude oil 37.95 37.58 37.24 36.93 36.62 36.28 35.91

Nat. Gas 1.748 1.723 1.699 1.678 1.657 1.634 1.608

LME Aluminum 1,603.92 1,598.50 1,593.47 1,589.00 1,584.54 1,579.50 1,574.09

LME Copper 4,863.79 4,837.00 4,812.09 4,790.00 4,767.91 4,743.00 4,716.21

LME Nickel 8,944.80 8,865.00 8,790.80 8,725.00 8,659.20 8,585.00 8,505.20

LME Lead 1,848.73 1,837.58 1,827.20 1,818.00 1,808.80 1,798.43 1,787.27

LME Zinc 1,842.48 1,832.50 1,823.23 1,815.00 1,806.78 1,797.50 1,787.53

A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day.

Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.




Market news and Technical forecast

Gold futures rebounded from early losses, as the

U.S. dollar turned lower, shrugging off recovery

in global shares and better-than-expected U.S.

economic data.

Spot gold, lower initially, rose 0.8% to $1,241.7

per ounce towards the closing session, while U.S.

gold futures for April delivery closed up 0.9% at

$1,241.8 per ounce.

The holdings of SPDR Gold trust increased to

788.57 tons as on March 3, while that of ishares

Silver Trust increased to 9,777.39 as on March 3.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President John

Williams said there has been no substantial

change in his outlook on the U.S. economy or his

opinion on the number of times the Fed should

raise interest rates this year and next - Reuters.

In the sessions ahead, investors will be watching

more U.S. data to gauge the impact on stocks

and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with

the most important release being non-farm

payrolls on Friday.

Technical outlook:

Gold’s intra-trend remains down till prices are

trading below 29400, while on the downside

prices may test supports at 29160-20950.

However, on breach above 29400, prices may

rally towards 29580-29700 levels.

Silver’s intra-trend looks sideways to down till

prices are trading below 36800-37000, while on

the downside prices may test 36100-35900.

Precious metals





Oil prices closed higher for the third straight day,

as buyers shrugged off record high U.S. crude

stockpiles and focused on an OPEC plan to freeze

production, keeping alive the notion that market

has bottomed from a near 2-year sell-off.

OPEC member Venezuela said a total of 15 oil

producing countries will attend a meeting

planned later this month on freezing output at

January's highs.

Diplomatic activity between the OPEC and other

major producers to address the supply glut by

freezing output has helped feed a 25% price gain

in the last 2-1/2 weeks from 12-year lows.

Oil prices briefly dipped after U.S. government

data showed crude stockpiles at record highs for

the third consecutive week after rising 10.4mn

barrels to 518mn barrels last week.

Natural gas futures plunged to a new 17-year low

for the third straight session, as market

participants looked ahead to fresh weekly

information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the

strength of demand for the fuel.

Technical outlook:

Crude oil’s trend looks sideways to up till prices

are trading above support at 2280-2320, while

on the upside prices may test 2360-2390 levels.

Natural gas trend looks down till prices are

trading below 117, while on the downside prices

may dip towards 114-111. However, on breach

above 117, prices may rally towards 119-120

levels.

Energy complex





Copper, aluminum and zinc hit their highest

levels in several months, bolstered by optimism

that global growth will pick up and as speculators

chased the rally.

Industrial metals also benefited from a "risk-on"

attitude in financial markets that swept global

shares and bond yields higher after investors

latched onto positive data such as stronger than

expected U.S. private sector jobs growth.

Announcements from China this week of a cut in

bank reserve requirements and structural

reforms that have helped real estate prices climb

helped underpin sentiments.

3-month zinc on LME climbed 1.7% to close at

$1,815 per ton, the strongest since mid-October.

The surge was helped by breaking through the

200-day moving average of $1,771, an important

level for speculators who trade based on chart-

based patterns.

LME copper inventories fell again on Wednesday

to 190,750 tons, the lowest in nearly 14-months.

Technical outlook:

Copper’s intra-day trend looks positive till prices

are above 325-324, while on the upside prices

may test 330-332 levels.

Zinc’s intra-trend remains sideways till prices are

trading above 121, while on the upside prices

resistance holds at 122.5-123.

Lead’s intra-day trend remains positive till prices

are trading above 121.3-120.7, while on the

upside prices may rally towards 124-125.5 levels.

Nickel’s trend looks positive till prices are trading

above 580-583, while on the upside prices may

rally towards 595-605 levels.

Base metals




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Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads

Global Indices

Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close

Markets Close Prev close %Chg

Precious metals

Asia

Gold (Rs/10 gm) 29,339 29,591 252 242

Sensex 24,243.0 23,779.4 1.9

Silver (Rs/kg) 36,051 35,621 453 467

Nifty 7,368.9 7,368.9 0.0

Nikkie 16,746.6 16,085.5 4.1

Base metals

Hang Seng 20,003.5 19,407.5 3.1

Alum. (Rs/kg) 107.7 108.4 0.70 0.80

Shanghai 2,849.7 2,733.2 4.3

Copper (Rs/kg) 328.3 332.5 4.20 4.35

Straits Times 2,727.0 2,682.4 1.7

Lead (Rs/kg) 122.8 123.2 0.40 0.45

Nickel (Rs/kg) 589.9 596.0 6.10 5.80

America

Zinc (Rs/kg) 122.5 123.2 0.70 0.65

Dow Jones 16,899.3 16,865.1 0.2

Nasdaq 4,703.4 4,689.6 0.3

Energy

Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 2,341 2,466 125 131

Europe

Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) 115.3 123.9 8.6 7.6

CAC 4,424.9 4,406.8 0.4

DAX 9,776.6 9,717.2 0.6

National-International price parity

FTSE 6,147.1 6,152.9 (0.1)

MCX COMEX Close* Prev close*

INR 67.55 67.5462

Arbitrage

Gold 29,339 1,241.80 (53.55) 71.40

Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg

Silver 36,051 15.00 (683.29) (526.35)

Lead - Zinc 0.35 (0.05) (800.0)

Copper 328.3 217.750 4.04 5.35

Gold - Silver 6712 6395 5.0

Crude oil 2,341 34.7 (0.15) 19.41

Brent - U.S. crude 2.27 2.41 (5.8)

*MCX premium/ (discount)

COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. April)

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Economic calendar

Date

Country /

Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous

29-Feb JPY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 5:20 3.7% 3.20% -1.90%

JPY Retail Trade (y-o-y) 5:20 -0.1% 0.10% -1.10%

JPY Housing Starts (y-o-y) 10:30 0.2% -0.30% -1.20%

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 15:00 3.7b 3.7b 3.2b

GBP Net Consumer Credit 15:00 1.6b 1.4b 1.1b

EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y-o-y) 15:30 -0.2% 0.00% 0.30%

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (y-o-y) 15:30 0.7% 0.90% 1.00%

USD Pending Home Sales (y-o-y) 20:30 -0.9% 4.10% 3.10%

1-Mar JPY Jobless Rate 5:00 3.2% 3.30% 3.30%

CNY Manufacturing PMI 6:30 49 49.40 49.40

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 6:30 52.7 53.50

CNY Caixin China PMI Mfg 7:15 48 48.40 48.40

JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg 7:30 50.1 50.20

AUD AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 9:00 2% 2.00% 2.00%

EUR German Unemployment Change 14:25 -10k -10k -19k

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 14:25 6.2% 6.20% 6.20%

GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 15:00 50.8 52.30 52.90

EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product 15:30 0.8% 0.60% -0.40%

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 15:30 10.3% 10.40% 10.40%

USD ISM Manufacturing 20:30 49.5 48.50 48.20

USD ISM Prices Paid 20:30 38.5 35.00 33.50

USD Construction Spending (m-o-m) 20:30 1.5% 0.50% 0.60%

2-Mar GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI 15:00 54.2 55.50 55.00

USD ADP Employment Change 18:45 214k 185k 193k

3-Mar USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 00:30

CNY Caixin China PMI Services 7:15 51.2 52.40

CNY Caixin China PMI Composite 7:15 49.4 50.10

JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Services 7:30 51.2 52.40

JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Composite 7:30 51 52.60

GBP Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI 15:00 55.70 56.10

GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI 15:00 55.10 55.60

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (y-o-y) 15:30 1.305 1.40%

USD Initial Jobless Claims 19:00 270k 272k

USD Continuing Claims 19:00 2235k 2253k

USD Non-Farm Productivity 19:00 -3.30% -3.00%

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite 20:30 54.00 53.50

USD Factory Orders 20:30 0.80% -2.90%

USD Durable Goods Orders 20:30 4.90%

USD Durables Ex Transportation 20:30 1.80%

4-Mar GBP Markit Germany Construction PMI 14:00 57.90

EUR Markit Germany Retail PMI 14:40 49.50

USD Unemployment Rate 19:00 4.90% 4.90%

USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 19:00 198k 151k

USD Change in Private Payrolls 19:00 185k 158k

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 19:00 0k 29k

USD Trade Balance 19:00 -$43.80b -$43.36b

USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 23:30 502




Commodity Research Team Pranav Mer Sr. Manager - Research

022-61325232/ 022-61325249/ 022-31923810

[email protected] Deepa Shakdwipee Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] Sivasubramaniam Palanisamy Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Sunil Darekar Advisor [email protected] Bharat Jha Advisor [email protected]

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metals & energy march 3, 2016 - aditya birla group · gold’s intra-trend remains down till...

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