METAC / IMF price METAC / IMF price statistics mission October statistics mission October 12-28, 200812-28, 2008

New estimates for the national CPI 2005 - 200826.10.2008

Kari ManninenEconAdvisor

Revised national CPI Revised national CPI estimatesestimatesBase prices of 2005Still old weights

◦Could apply new weights at 4-digit level

◦Not a massive effectThe average annual inflation

Headline CPIHeadline CPI

Comparison to the old Comparison to the old seriesseriesIncompleteNo recalculated series for 2000 –

2005

Annual inflation Annual inflation

Annual inflationAnnual inflation

* 8 month average

Annual inflationAnnual inflation

* 12 months average

New and old official New and old official inflationinflation

OptionsOptionsDo not reviseRevise national only from 2005

onwardsCompile new index based on new

methodology, weights from 05, 06, 07, or 08 onwards

New CPI 2008 = 100◦New weights◦Geomean◦Linking 2008 old prices to the index

Lessons from the analysisLessons from the analysisMore frequent price collection!Better item specifications!Seasonal productsBetter data validationCPI Publication

◦National index the priority◦Regional indices fairly unreliable◦Contributions

Users and revisionUsers and revisionConcerted revision with National

Accounts!Users need to be informed – How?

◦Central bank◦Ministry of Finance, Planning◦Private banking

Policy implication!◦Monetary policy◦Salaries◦Pensions◦Contract escalation