merrimack valley housing report april 2015
DESCRIPTION
The Merrimack Valley Housing Report is published by UMass Lowell and the Middlesex North Registry of DeedsTRANSCRIPT
housingreportAn e-publication of UMass Lowell and the Middlesex North Registry of Deeds
Merrimack Valley
Volume 8, Issue 4 April 2015 Merrimack Valley First Quarter Trends ......................................................................1 Lowell Real Estate: First Quarter 2015 .......................................................................................... 3
Real estate trends were mixed in the major Merrimack Valley cities during the first three months of 2015 when compared to the first quarter of 2014. On the positive side, sales activity (deeds filed) increased in Lawrence and Methuen over the first quarter of 2015 when compared to the same period in 2014. Within the region, Methuen saw the biggest jump as deeds recorded rose 19% from 197 to 235. Lawrence experienced an 11% increase with 206 deeds recorded in 2015 when compared to 2014’s first three months total of 186. However, Lowell’s deed filings declined 4% from 357 to 343 during this period while Haverhill’s deeds dropped 3%. A more encouraging trend was the number of mortgages recorded, as all four cities experienced increases in the first quarter of 2015 when compared the same period in 2014. Lawrence had the biggest jump at 35% followed by Methuen (33%), Lowell (22%) and Haverhill (14%).
By: David Turcotte Another positive indicator during the first three months of 2015 was the continued decline in the number of foreclosures recorded in all major cities. Lawrence, which had the highest number of foreclosure deed filings at the inception of the foreclosure crisis, witnessed the biggest drop (36%) from 14 to 9. The number of foreclosure deeds recorded fell in Lowell (28%) from 18 to 13 while Haverhill and Methuen saw decreases of 19% and 13%. Nevertheless, orders of notice, (the first formal step in the foreclosure process), were up in three of the four largest cities in the Valley during the first quarter of 2015. Lawrence led the way with orders of notice rising 213% from 8 to 25. Orders of notice filings doubled in Lowell from 17 to 34 while Methuen had a slight increase at 6%. On the positive side, the number of orders of notice recorded in Haverhill declined significantly (47%) from 17 to 9.
Merrimack Valley First Quarter Trends
Deeds, Mortgages, Foreclosures and Orders of Notice Recorded March 2014 and March 2015 compared
University ofMassachusetts Lowell
MIDDLESEX NORTHREGISTRY OF DEEDS
Haverhill Lawrence Lowell MethuenMar-14 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-15
Deeds 85 91 75 87 150 138 86 94Mortgages 110 136 99 124 143 210 114 150
Foreclosure Deeds
4 7 5 5 6 8 0 2
Orders of Notice
9 1 5 4 5 6 5 5
NORTHERN ESSEXREGISTRY OF DEEDS
(Continued on page 2)
Merrimack Valley Housing Report 2
Lowell Real Estate:First Quarter 2015 Continued
What trends should we expect to see over the next quarter? It will be interesting to see if orders of notice filings continue to increase over the next few months, which could be an indicator of possible spikes in the number of foreclosure deeds recorded later in the year. Some observers are expecting to see fewer deedsrecorded in April and May due to large snow storms and below normal temperature in February and March.
Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar TotalDeeds 57 54 86 197 88 59 85 232 108 99 150 357 56 55 75 186
Mortgage 93 60 114 267 101 88 110 299 136 133 143 412 64 50 99 213Foreclosure 3 5 0 8 7 5 4 16 3 9 6 18 8 1 5 14
Order of Notice 7 4 5 16 2 6 9 17 4 8 5 17 3 0 5 8
2014Haverhill Lowell LawrenceMethuen
2014 2015 % Change 2014 2015 % Change 2014 2015 % Change 2014 2015 % ChangeDeeds 197 235 19% 232 225 -‐3% 357 343 -‐4% 186 206 11%
Mortgages 267 356 33% 299 340 14% 412 502 22% 213 287 35%Foreclosure 8 7 -‐13% 16 13 -‐19% 18 13 -‐28% 14 9 -‐36%
Order of Notice 16 17 6% 17 9 -‐47% 17 34 100% 8 25 213%
Percent ChangeMethuen Haverhill Lowell Lawrence
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Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar Total Jan Feb Mar TotalDeeds 83 58 94 235 71 63 91 225 105 100 138 343 52 67 87 206
Mortgage 103 103 150 356 106 98 136 340 137 155 210 502 79 84 124 287Foreclosure 2 3 2 7 0 6 7 13 3 2 8 13 3 1 5 9
Order of Notice 8 4 5 17 4 4 1 9 9 19 6 34 12 9 4 25
LowellHaverhillMethuen Lawrence2015
Merrimack Valley Housing Report 3
Lowell Real Estate: First Quarter 2015
By: Richard P. Howe Jr.
Despite the terrible winter we just endured, there were some positive trends in Lowell real estate during the first quarter of 2015. The number of documents recorded for proper-ties in Lowell was up 6%, rising from 2548 in the first quarter of 2014 to 2706 for the same period in 2015. The number of mortgages recorded was also a good sign, rising from 412 to 502, an increase of 22%. There were also a few negative indicators. The number of deeds recorded was down 4%, declining from 357 to 343 and while the number of foreclosure deeds dropped (down 28%, from 18 to 13) the number of orders of notice, the document that signals an imminent foreclosure, doubled rising from 17 in 2014 to 34 in 2015. Taking a closer look at sales activity during the first three months of 2015, there were 59 days when the registry was or should have been open. On four of those days, we were closed due to snowstorms. On another four days there were no sales for Lowell recorded. Of the 343 deeds recorded, 144 were for no consideration which means they were transfers between related parties such as a parent conveying to a child as a gift or a couple placing their property into a trust. Of the deeds that were arms-length transactions, the median price of deeds for full consideration for the first quarter of 2014 was $177,500. The median price for 2015 deeds for the same time period was $209,900. While it is unlikely that homes in Lowell have ap-preciated 18% over the past year, this increase in median price of homes being sold is a posi-tive sign. As for who is selling these properties, 42 of those sold in the first quarter of 2015 (21%) were acquired by the seller prior to 1985; another 11 were new construction, mostly condominium units (6%); and 18 were properties that had just been through foreclosure (9%). The vast majority of the properties, 128 of them or 64%, had been acquired by the seller since 1985. Of these, 39 of them (39% of the group) sold for less than the seller had paid to acquire the property in the first place while 89 of them (64% of the group) sold for a gain. With the record-breaking snowfall we experienced this winter, it seems a wonder that any real estate transactions took place so assessing the state of the Lowell market during the first quarter of 2015 must be viewed through that filter. That said, the overall indicators sug-gest that a sluggish market will continue, mostly because of the substantial number of home-owners who are either underwater on their loans or are at least living in homes that are worth less than they paid to acquire them.
The Merrimack Valley Housing Report is published byUMass Lowell and the Middlesex North Registry of Deeds
Richard P. Howe Jr., [email protected]
David Turcotte, [email protected]
Paul Iannuccillo, [email protected]
Emily Chaves, Research Assistant/[email protected]
Kelechi Adejumo, Contributing [email protected]
Izamar Rivera, Research [email protected]
Institute of Housing Sustainabilityc/o Center for Community Research and EngagementUniversity of Massachusetts LowellMahoney Hall, 870 Broadway Street, Lowell, MA 01854Tel. (978) 934-4682www.uml.edu/mvhousing
This project is funded in part by the Office of the Chancellor and theOffice of Outreach. UMASS LOWELL
Merrimack Valley Housing Report 4
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