MENA Water Outlook 2050

Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options

Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra HellegersJippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

Study Design

• Objectives– Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050– Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage

• Steps– Climate and other change projections– Hydrological impact model– Water resources supply/demand analysis– Cost and benefits adaptation options

• Limitations– Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

WEAP Modeling Framework

• WEAP modeling setup– 22 countries– Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater– Irrigation, Domestic, Industry– 2000-2050– 3 climate change models– Results from hydrological model

Reservoir

Groundwater

Catchment

Irrigation Urban Industry

Outlet

RESULTS: DEMANDS

Results

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand curves MENA (AVG)

Results

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand curves MENA (DRY)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand curves MENA (WET)

Results

Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

Results

Demand and SupplyCurves MENA (DRY)

Demand and SupplyCurves MENA (WET)

Iran

Morocco

Yemen

Egypt

Water Demand-Shortage(MCM) Demand Demand Demand Unmet Unmet Unmet

2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050 2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050 Algeria 6,356 8,786 12,336 0 8 3,925 Bahrain 226 321 391 195 304 377 Djibouti 28 46 84 0 0 0 Egypt 55,837 70,408 87,681 2,858 22,267 32,085 Gaza Strip 162 299 527 140 283 505 Iran 79,703 92,310 110,081 11,325 29,721 51,753 Iraq 43,968 57,130 71,113 7,272 26,907 43,096 Israel 3,140 4,619 6,081 2,118 3,733 5,130 Jordan 1,113 1,528 2,276 853 1,338 2,061 Kuwait 508 867 1,216 0 310 788 Lebanon 1,202 1,525 1,869 141 471 876 Libya 4,125 4,974 5,982 0 1,399 3,625 Malta 88 122 148 34 80 107 Morocco 15,739 19,357 24,223 2,092 9,175 15,381 Oman 891 1,544 2,807 0 663 2,194 Qatar 489 602 641 234 418 481 Saudi Arabia 21,733 26,667 35,257 10,572 18,146 28,535 Syria 16,183 19,446 24,418 873 4,539 9,498 Tunisia 2,772 3,985 5,916 0 17 2,853 U.A. Emirates 3,370 3,495 3,389 3,036 3,203 3,173 West Bank 403 652 1,061 256 555 957 Yemen 5,819 8,162 19,065 1,262 3,540 14,289 MENA 263,853 326,842 416,562 43,265 127,078 221,691

MCM/year; average climate change

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Water Marginal Cost Curves

• Closing supply-demand gap:– Increasing the productivity– Expanding supply– Reducing demand

• Water marginal costs curves

• Assumptions:– Net present value (US$ 2010)

Strategies

• Increasing the productivity:– A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)– B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry– C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture

• Expanding supply:

– D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)– E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)– F: Desalination by means of using solar energy– G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis

• Reducing demand:

– H: Reduce irrigated areas – I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

Strategies (increase productivity)

• A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)– Typical examples:

• drip and sprinkler irrigation• no-till farming• improved drainage• utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development• optimizing fertilizer use• innovative crop protection technologies• extension services

– Costs• US$ 0.01 per m3

• = US$ 100 per ha per year

– Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:• Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP) US$ 100 per ha per year• 2030 Water Resources Group US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m3

Strategies (increase productivity)

• B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry

– Costs• US$ 0.30 per m3

– Note: costs can vary substantially.• What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

Strategies (increase productivity)

• C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture– Assumptions

• Reuse only for agriculture• No water treatment system• Only operational and investment costs• 50 mm per year

– Costs• Total: US$ 0.04 per m3

• 50% annualized capital costs of investment • 50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

Strategies (expanding supply)

• D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)• E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)

– Costs•0.03 $/m3 for small scale•0.05 $/ m3 for large scale

– Note: costs can vary substantially•sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya 0.04 $/m3

•Aslantis Dam, Turkey 0.035 $/m3

Strategies (expanding supply)

• F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)• G: Desalination using reverse osmosis

– Costs• CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050• Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3

– Note: costs can vary substantially• Especially energy

ReverseOsmoses

Multi EffectDistillation

Strategies (reducing demand)

• H: Reduce irrigated areas – Assumptions

• Reduce irrigated areas by 10%

– Costs• 0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15

$/m3.

– Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:• Crops• Irrigation method• Climate

RESULTS

Water Supply and Demand

CC Scenario

AVG DRY WET

KM3 PER YEAR 2000-2009 2040-2050 2040-2050 2040-2050 DEMAND 264 417 435 398 Irrigation 213 265 283 246 Domestic 28 88 88 88 Industry 23 64 64 64

UNMET DEMAND 43 222 306 104 Irrigation 36 144 204 61 Domestic 4 45 58 22 Industry 3 34 44 21

SUPPLY 221 189 130 283 Surface water 171 150 99 228 Groundwater 50 39 31 55

MENA region

MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves

All values in 2010 US$net present value

Egypt Saudi Arabia

Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)

Shortage Costs Costs Costs Costs CostsMCM million US$ US$/m3 US$/capita %GDP 2010 %GDP 2050

Algeria 3,925 35 0.01 1 0.02 0.00Bahrain 377 130 0.34 96 1.15 0.11Djibouti 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00Egypt 32,085 4,000 0.12 27 3.27 0.33Gaza Strip 505 200 0.40 108Iran 51,753 6,000 0.12 56 1.76 0.18Iraq 43,096 12,000 0.28 196 8.71 0.87Israel 5,130 1,800 0.35 171 1.21 0.12Jordan 2,061 750 0.36 71 6.59 0.66Kuwait 788 250 0.32 47 0.48 0.05Lebanon 876 200 0.23 39 2.49 0.25Libya 3,625 700 0.19 64 0.80 0.08Malta 107 35 0.33 77 0.99 0.47Morocco 15,381 4,000 0.26 72 5.47 0.54Oman 2,194 700 0.32 96 2.35 0.23Qatar 481 150 0.31 161 0.72 0.07Saudi Arabia 28,535 9,000 0.32 154 3.04 0.30Syria 9,498 1,250 0.13 35 3.59 0.36Tunisia 2,853 200 0.07 13 0.21 0.02U.A. Emirates 3,173 1,100 0.35 253 3.16 0.31West Bank 957 325 0.34 104 0.27 0.03Yemen 14,289 4,200 0.29 45 31.82 3.16MENA 221,691 47,025 0.21 67 2.58 0.26

Shortage Costs Costs Costs Costs CostsMCM million US$ US$/m3 US$/capita %GDP 2010 %GDP 2050

Algeria 3,925 35 0.01 1 0.02 0.00Bahrain 377 130 0.34 96 1.15 0.11Djibouti 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00Egypt 32,085 4,000 0.12 27 3.27 0.33Gaza Strip 505 200 0.40 108Iran 51,753 6,000 0.12 56 1.76 0.18Iraq 43,096 12,000 0.28 196 8.71 0.87Israel 5,130 1,800 0.35 171 1.21 0.12Jordan 2,061 750 0.36 71 6.59 0.66Kuwait 788 250 0.32 47 0.48 0.05Lebanon 876 200 0.23 39 2.49 0.25Libya 3,625 700 0.19 64 0.80 0.08Malta 107 35 0.33 77 0.99 0.47Morocco 15,381 4,000 0.26 72 5.47 0.54Oman 2,194 700 0.32 96 2.35 0.23Qatar 481 150 0.31 161 0.72 0.07Saudi Arabia 28,535 9,000 0.32 154 3.04 0.30Syria 9,498 1,250 0.13 35 3.59 0.36Tunisia 2,853 200 0.07 13 0.21 0.02U.A. Emirates 3,173 1,100 0.35 253 3.16 0.31West Bank 957 325 0.34 104 0.27 0.03Yemen 14,289 4,200 0.29 45 31.82 3.16MENA 221,691 47,025 0.21 67 2.58 0.26

Shortage Costs Costs Costs Costs CostsMCM million US$ US$/m3 US$/capita %GDP 2010 %GDP 2050

Algeria 3,925 35 0.01 1 0.02 0.00Bahrain 377 130 0.34 96 1.15 0.11Djibouti 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00Egypt 32,085 4,000 0.12 27 3.27 0.33Gaza Strip 505 200 0.40 108Iran 51,753 6,000 0.12 56 1.76 0.18Iraq 43,096 12,000 0.28 196 8.71 0.87Israel 5,130 1,800 0.35 171 1.21 0.12Jordan 2,061 750 0.36 71 6.59 0.66Kuwait 788 250 0.32 47 0.48 0.05Lebanon 876 200 0.23 39 2.49 0.25Libya 3,625 700 0.19 64 0.80 0.08Malta 107 35 0.33 77 0.99 0.47Morocco 15,381 4,000 0.26 72 5.47 0.54Oman 2,194 700 0.32 96 2.35 0.23Qatar 481 150 0.31 161 0.72 0.07Saudi Arabia 28,535 9,000 0.32 154 3.04 0.30Syria 9,498 1,250 0.13 35 3.59 0.36Tunisia 2,853 200 0.07 13 0.21 0.02U.A. Emirates 3,173 1,100 0.35 253 3.16 0.31West Bank 957 325 0.34 104 0.27 0.03Yemen 14,289 4,200 0.29 45 31.82 3.16MENA 221,691 47,025 0.21 67 2.58 0.26

Shortage Costs Costs Costs Costs CostsMCM million US$ US$/m3 US$/capita %GDP 2010 %GDP 2050

Algeria 3,925 35 0.01 1 0.02 0.00Bahrain 377 130 0.34 96 1.15 0.11Djibouti 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00Egypt 32,085 4,000 0.12 27 3.27 0.33Gaza Strip 505 200 0.40 108Iran 51,753 6,000 0.12 56 1.76 0.18Iraq 43,096 12,000 0.28 196 8.71 0.87Israel 5,130 1,800 0.35 171 1.21 0.12Jordan 2,061 750 0.36 71 6.59 0.66Kuwait 788 250 0.32 47 0.48 0.05Lebanon 876 200 0.23 39 2.49 0.25Libya 3,625 700 0.19 64 0.80 0.08Malta 107 35 0.33 77 0.99 0.47Morocco 15,381 4,000 0.26 72 5.47 0.54Oman 2,194 700 0.32 96 2.35 0.23Qatar 481 150 0.31 161 0.72 0.07Saudi Arabia 28,535 9,000 0.32 154 3.04 0.30Syria 9,498 1,250 0.13 35 3.59 0.36Tunisia 2,853 200 0.07 13 0.21 0.02U.A. Emirates 3,173 1,100 0.35 253 3.16 0.31West Bank 957 325 0.34 104 0.27 0.03Yemen 14,289 4,200 0.29 45 31.82 3.16MENA 221,691 47,025 0.21 67 2.58 0.26

Shortage Costs Costs Costs Costs CostsMCM million US$ US$/m3 US$/capita %GDP 2010 %GDP 2050

Algeria 3,925 35 0.01 1 0.02 0.00Bahrain 377 130 0.34 96 1.15 0.11Djibouti 0 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00Egypt 32,085 4,000 0.12 27 3.27 0.33Gaza Strip 505 200 0.40 108Iran 51,753 6,000 0.12 56 1.76 0.18Iraq 43,096 12,000 0.28 196 8.71 0.87Israel 5,130 1,800 0.35 171 1.21 0.12Jordan 2,061 750 0.36 71 6.59 0.66Kuwait 788 250 0.32 47 0.48 0.05Lebanon 876 200 0.23 39 2.49 0.25Libya 3,625 700 0.19 64 0.80 0.08Malta 107 35 0.33 77 0.99 0.47Morocco 15,381 4,000 0.26 72 5.47 0.54Oman 2,194 700 0.32 96 2.35 0.23Qatar 481 150 0.31 161 0.72 0.07Saudi Arabia 28,535 9,000 0.32 154 3.04 0.30Syria 9,498 1,250 0.13 35 3.59 0.36Tunisia 2,853 200 0.07 13 0.21 0.02U.A. Emirates 3,173 1,100 0.35 253 3.16 0.31West Bank 957 325 0.34 104 0.27 0.03Yemen 14,289 4,200 0.29 45 31.82 3.16MENA 221,691 47,025 0.21 67 2.58 0.26

Conclusions

• Study– Advanced hydrological-water resources approach– In country variability– Monthly approach– Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture– Scoping study

• Overall results– Renewable water resources 20% reduction– Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306)– Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)– Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98) – Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)

• Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place now!

Comparison Other Studies

• “Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World Bank, 2010):– Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)– Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)– MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050)

• “2030 Water Resources Group”– MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)

• Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):– MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently)

• AQAU-CSP (DLR)– Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)– Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)

2050:Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306)Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5

Way Forward

• Water shortage:– Unconventional decisions needed– Food, environment, tourism, industry?– Subsidies on water-food-energy

• Water-energy nexus

• Long and short term decisions

• Detailed case studies (country, topic)

THANK YOU

GDP projections

Morocco

Egypt