memorandum to: bryan sowell, pe ncdot division 12 project ... · this forecast was requested by...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Memorandum
To: Bryan Sowell, PE – NCDOT Division 12 Project Engineer
From: RS&H Project Team
Subject: U-2530A Traffic Forecast Report
Date: May 22, 2018
Please find attached the traffic forecast for State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP)
Project U-2530A. This project falls within the Western Piedmont Council of Government (WPCOG)
planning area. The North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) proposes the following
improvements:
» STIP Project U-2530A proposes to widen NC 127 to four lanes, divided, from Zion Church
Road to Huffman Farm Road. This project is located in Catawba County, NCDOT Division
12.
This forecast was requested by Bryan Sowell, NCDOT Division 12 Project Engineer, and includes
the following scenarios:
» 2018 Base Year No Build (BYNB)
» 2018 Base Year Build (BYB)
» 2040 Future Year No Build (FYNB)
» 2040 Future Year Build (FYB)
This forecast was approved by NCDOT Transportation Planning Division on May 21, 2018. This is
the first traffic forecast for U-2530A.
The following persons were consulted during the development of this forecast:
NCDOT Transportation Planning Division
Keith Dixon
NCDOT Division 12
Bryan Sowell, PE
Anil Panicker
NCDOT District 3 – Catawba and Lincoln Co
Timothy W. Anderson
NCDOT MPO Contact
Pam R. Cook
Catawba County
Jacky Eubanks, AICP
Western Piedmont Council of Government
John S. Wear
City of Hickory
Brian Frazier
John Marshall
2
Certain Assumptions were made during the development of this forecast.
Fiscal Constraint:
The Hickory MPO Model 2011, v1.1 dated November 2015, was used as a tool to aid in the forecast
development and included all fiscally constrained projects documented in the 2040 Long Range
Transportation Plan (LRTP) and the NCDOT Approved STIP – August 2017 projects funded for
construction.
Methodology:
The traffic forecasts and traffic factor estimates for the 2018 BYNB Conditions were developed
based on project specific traffic counts and historic Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) trends
projected to 2018.
The 2040 FYNB Conditions traffic forecasts were estimated by linearly extrapolating the 2018
BYNB Conditions traffic forecasts using the growth rates calculated based on the Hickory MPO
model output, historic traffic and population growth rates, and population and employment
forecasts regarding projected growth in the study area. Additional development and travel
pattern changes were taken into consideration for the 2040 FYNB traffic forecasts.
The 2018 BYB and 2040 FYB Conditions traffic forecasts were primarily developed using the
changes in travel patterns obtained by comparing the Hickory MPO model output of the
respective years’ No Build and Build Conditions.
If we can be of any further assistance on this project, please do not hesitate to contact Vivek
Hariharan at [email protected] or 703.220.2203.
CC (with Attachments):
Mike Reese, PE, Congestion Management
Brenda Moore, PE, CPM, Roadway Design
Clark Morrison, Pavement Management
Anil Panicker, Division Planning Engineer
John S. Wear, WPCOG
Brian Wert, PE, TPD Planning Supervisor
Keith Dixon, State Traffic Forecast Engineer
Traffic Forecasting GIS Support
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
NO BUILD CONDITIONSBASE YEAR
FIGURE 1
2018
SHEET 1 of 2
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 2)
127
127
PM60
(2, 1)9
37 145
49 17 24
1 4
36 3
24 3
15 2
13 1
15 9182 262
3 2
5
Shoppin
g C
enter
Dw
y
South P
oint
4
1 3
Mark
et
Dw
y
Mountain Vie
w
264 210 185 181
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
12
(2, 1)
70
PM
11
(2, 1)
60
PM
11
(2, 1)
65
PM
8(2, 1)
55
PM
9(2, 1)
70
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
11
(4, 1)
60
7072
35
4 68
24 1
5 55
25 14
39
235
US 3
21 W
B Off R
am
pU
S 3
21 W
B O
n R
am
p
US 3
21 E
B O
n R
am
pU
S 3
21 E
B Off R
am
p
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
11
(3, 2)
100
PM
12
(3, 2)
100
Center
St (S
R 2
959)
(SR 1
008)
Zio
n C
hurc
h R
d
(SR 1
282)
Fle
etw
ood Dr
(SR 1
194)
Moss F
arm R
d
(SR 2
505)
Woodridge Dr
(SR 1
176)
Beth
el
Churc
h R
d
PM60
(2, 1)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 1)
127
127DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
NO BUILD CONDITIONSBASE YEAR
FIGURE 1
2018
SHEET 2 of 2
20
17 3
35
32 3
12
9 3
30
25 5
6
4 2
8
6 2167 138 132 112 110 106
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM
10
(2, 1)
65
PM
12
(3, 1)
55
PM
8(4, 1)
55
PM
10
(2, 1)
55
PM
11
(3, 1)
60
PM
8(4, 1)
60
181
PM60
(2, 1)9
(SR 1
258)
Old F
arm Dr
(SR 1
128)
Mountain Gro
ve R
d
(SR 2
559)
Valley Field R
d
(SR 2
914)
Dwayne Starn
es Dr
(SR 1
299)
Villa
ge Cir
(SR 1
132)
Huff
man F
arm Dr
PM60
(3, 2)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
FIGURE 2
2018
SHEET 1 of 2
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 2)
127
127
PM60
(2, 1)9
37 145
49 17 26
1 4
36 3
24 3
15 2
13 1
16 8185 274
2 3
5
Shoppin
g C
enter
Dw
y
South P
oint
4
1 1
Mark
et
Dw
y
Mountain Vie
w
278 224 199 191
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
12
(2, 1)
70
PM
11
(2, 1)
60
PM
11
(2, 1)
65
PM
8(2, 1)
55
PM
9(2, 1)
70
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
11
(4, 1)
60
7072
36
3 69
24 2
4 56
23 16
39
244
US 3
21 W
B Off R
am
pU
S 3
21 W
B O
n R
am
p
US 3
21 E
B O
n R
am
pU
S 3
21 E
B Off R
am
p
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
11
(3, 2)
100
PM
12
(3, 2)
100
BUILD CONDITIONSBASE YEAR
(SR 1
176)
Beth
el
Churc
h R
d
(SR 1
194)
Moss F
arm R
d
(SR 2
505)
Woodridge Dr
(SR 1
008)
Zio
n C
hurc
h R
d
(SR 1
282)
Fle
etw
ood Dr
Center
St (S
R 2
959)
PM60
(2, 1)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 1)
127
127DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
FIGURE 2
2018
SHEET 2 of 2
20
17 3
37
35 2
12
10 2
30
25 5
6
4 2
8
5 3177 144 136 116 114 112
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM
10
(2, 1)
65
PM
12
(3, 1)
55
PM
8(4, 1)
55
PM
10
(2, 1)
55
PM
11
(3, 1)
60
PM
8(4, 1)
60
191
PM60
(2, 1)9
BUILD CONDITIONSBASE YEAR
(SR 1
132)
Huff
man F
arm Dr
(SR 1
299)
Villa
ge Cir
(SR 2
559)
Valley Field R
d
(SR 1
258)
Old F
arm Dr
(SR 1
128)
Mountain Gro
ve R
d
(SR 2
914)
Dwayne Starn
es Dr
PM60
(3, 2)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
FIGURE 3
2040
SHEET 1 of 2
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 2)
127
127
PM60
(2, 1)9
39 156
53 18 28
1 5
40 3
26 3
16 1
13 1
18 10203 290
3 2
5
Shoppin
g C
enter
Dw
y
South P
oint
4
1 3
Mark
et
Dw
y
Mountain Vie
w
293 233 206 200
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
12
(2, 1)
70
PM
11
(2, 1)
60
PM
11
(2, 1)
65
PM
8(2, 1)
55
PM
9(2, 1)
70
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
11
(4, 1)
60
7880
41
4 76
28 1
5 61
30 16
46
261
US 3
21 W
B Off R
am
pU
S 3
21 W
B O
n R
am
p
US 3
21 E
B O
n R
am
pU
S 3
21 E
B Off R
am
p
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
11
(3, 2)
100
PM
12
(3, 2)
100
NO BUILD CONDITIONSFUTURE YEAR
(SR 1
176)
Beth
el
Churc
h R
d
(SR 1
194)
Moss F
arm R
d
(SR 2
505)
Woodridge Dr
(SR 1
008)
Zio
n C
hurc
h R
d
(SR 1
282)
Fle
etw
ood Dr
Center
St (S
R 2
959)
PM60
(2, 1)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 1)
127
127DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
SHEET 2 of 2
21
18 3
37
35 2
13
8 5
32
27 5
7
5 2
9
7 2185 152 149 127 124 119
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM
10
(2, 1)
65
PM
12
(3, 1)
55
PM
8(4, 1)
55
PM
10
(2, 1)
55
PM
11
(3, 1)
60
PM
8(4, 1)
60
200
PM60
(2, 1)9
FIGURE 3
NO BUILD CONDITIONSFUTURE YEAR
2040
(SR 1
132)
Huff
man F
arm Dr
(SR 1
299)
Villa
ge Cir
(SR 2
559)
Valley Field R
d
(SR 1
258)
Old F
arm Dr
(SR 1
128)
Mountain Gro
ve R
d
(SR 2
914)
Dwayne Starn
es Dr
PM60
(3, 2)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
FIGURE 4
2040
SHEET 1 of 2
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 2)
127
127
PM60
(2, 1)9
39 156
53 18 30
1 5
40 4
26 4
16 1
13 1
19 10209 306
3 2
5
Shoppin
g C
enter
Dw
y
South P
oint
4
1 2
Mark
et
Dw
y
Mountain Vie
w
309 251 224 216
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
12
(2, 1)
70
PM
11
(2, 1)
60
PM
11
(2, 1)
65
PM
8(2, 1)
55
PM
9(2, 1)
70
PM
8(3, 1)
70
PM
11
(4, 1)
60
7880
41
4 75
29 3
5 64
26 19
46
273
US 3
21 W
B Off R
am
pU
S 3
21 W
B O
n R
am
p
US 3
21 E
B O
n R
am
pU
S 3
21 E
B Off R
am
p
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
8(3, 2)
100
PM
11
(3, 2)
100
PM
12
(3, 2)
100
BUILD CONDITIONSFUTURE YEAR
(SR 1
176)
Beth
el
Churc
h R
d
(SR 1
194)
Moss F
arm R
d
(SR 2
505)
Woodridge Dr
(SR 1
008)
Zio
n C
hurc
h R
d
(SR 1
282)
Fle
etw
ood Dr
Center
St (S
R 2
959)
PM60
(2, 1)9
DHV DPM
(d,t)
Duals, TT-ST's (%)(d,t)
Direction of D
PM Peak PeriodPM
Peak Hour Directional Split (%) D
Design Hourly Volume (%)DHV
LEGEND
No. of Vehicles Per Day in 100's000
COUNTY:
PREPARED BY:
DATE:
DIVISION:
WBS: TIP:
N
E
S
W
Not To Scale
RS&H
12
Catawba County, Div 12
U-2530A 34824.1.3
Catawba
PROJECT:
LOCATION:
NC 127 from US 321 to Huffman Farm Rd
Huffman Farm Rd
divided, from Zion Church Rd to
NC 127 Widening to four lane,
May 2018
MA
TC
HLIN
E A (See S
heet 1)
127
127DAILY TRAFFIC FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE
SHEET 2 of 2
21
19 2
39
38 1
13
9 4
32
27 5
7
5 2
9
7 2
Mountain Gro
ve R
d
199 162 157 135 132 127
PM60
(2, 1)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM60
(3, 2)9
PM
10
(2, 1)
65
PM
12
(3, 1)
55
PM
8(4, 1)
55
PM
10
(2, 1)
55
PM
11
(3, 1)
60
PM
8(4, 1)
60
216
PM60
(2, 1)9
2040
BUILD CONDITIONSFUTURE YEAR
FIGURE 4
(SR 1
132)
Huff
man F
arm Dr
(SR 1
299)
Villa
ge Cir
(SR 2
559)
Valley Field R
d
(SR 1
258)
Old F
arm Dr
(SR 1
128)
Mountain Gro
ve R
d
(SR 2
914)
Dwayne Starn
es Dr
PM60
(3, 2)9