Climate Forecasting Unit

Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert

CLIM-RUN GA, July 8-10th 2013

CLIMRUN WP7: Renewable Energy

Second Round WorkshopsIC3

EEWRC

DHMZ

ENEA, PIK

Climate Forecasting UnitProduct 1: Mediterranean

Seasonal Wind Forecast

Climate Forecasting UnitProduct 2: Europe

Long-term Wind Speed Scenarios

Climate Forecasting UnitProduct 3: Rabat

Long-term Wind Speed Scenarios

Climate Forecasting Unit

Problem: Climate variability risk in wind decisions

Operational decisions (Wind farm/grid operator, trader)

Planning decisions (Policy maker, energy planning, grid development)

Investment decisions

Energy generation – balancing resources, energy trading, extremes, insurance?Maintenance – offshore most vulnerable

Market strategies – incentives, energy mixSpatial planning – balancing resources, reinforce/redesign distribution network

Site selection – robust resource assessments, portfolio designRevenue – robust projections, volatility over time, insurance?

(debt financing, throughout project)

-30 years

PAST Observations P

RE

SE

NT

Weather Forecasts

Hours/days/weeks

ClimateForecasts

Months to seasons(1month-1year)

Seasonal Annual-Decadal

Inter/multi-annual (1-30years)

Multi-decadal(30+years)

HindcastsClimate Change

FUTUREPredictions

Climate Forecasting UnitSecond round workshops

Workshop Date Stakeholder Type Feedback (audience

number + direct feedback)

Focus

Morocco: Maghreb Wind Energy Congress, Rabat, Morocco

21-22 May 2013

Investors, Wind companies, International Organisations, N. Africa Government

30 + 10 All products,All applications covered in presentation

Spain: Weather Forecasting for the Energy Markets, Berlin, Germany

13-14th June 2013

Energy Traders, Insurance companies

20 + 5 All products,Seasonal wind forecasting presentation

Spain: International Conference for Energy and Meteorology, Toulouse, France

June 25-28th 2013

Grid operators, Traders, Insurance, Investors, Project developers

20 + 8 All products,Seasonal wind forecasting presentation

Croatia: May-June?

Cyprus: tbc.

Climate Forecasting Unit

Wind Forecast Skill Assessment1St validation of the climate forecast system:

Spring 10m wind resource ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

win

d sp

eed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology

Can the wind forecast mean tell us about the wind resource variability at a specific time?

Seasonal Wind ForecastsDemonstrating the value

Climate Forecasting Unit

Wind Forecast Skill Assessment2nd validation of the climate forecast system:

Spring 10m wind resource CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

win

d sp

eed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology

Can the wind forecast distribution tell us about the magnitude of the wind resource variability, and its uncertainty at a specific time?

Seasonal Wind ForecastsDemonstrating the value

Climate Forecasting Unit

Europe

Wind Forecast Skill Assessment

Areas of interest: E.Brasil

N.ChileIndonesia/W.India

W. Australia

S.America Africa Asia Australia

Mexico/S.Canada

N.America

N.Spain/S.E Europe

Spring 10m wind resource magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skill

Spring 10m wind resource variability forecast skill

Wind resource variability forecast skill only

Both wind resource magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skill

KenyaSomalia

Where is wind forecast skill highest?

Seasonal Wind Forecasts Demonstrating the value

Climate Forecasting Unit

Probabilistic forecast of (future) spring 2011,10m wind resource most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)

%

Seasonal Wind Forecasts Demonstrating the potential

Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)

Operational Wind Forecasts

Europe

E.BrasilN.Chile

Indonesia/W.India

W. Australia

S.America

Africa Asia

Australia

Mexico/S.Canada

N.America

N.Spain/S.E Europe

KenyaSomalia

Climate Forecasting Unit

1. 10m wind not representative of wind turbine hub height.

Caveats and further research:Climate forecasting for wind energy

2. Lack of relevant, observational wind data for robust validations of forecast skill: reanalysis data used instead.

3. Seasonal wind forecasts assessed with a single climate model with 15 ensemble members: a multi-model approach is needed with more ensemble members.

1. Multi-model approach needed for a more robust forecast skill assessment.

2. Seasonal wind forecasts to be made down to site-specific scales.

3. Run seasonal wind forecasts with wind energy models to get power outputs.

Caveats

Further research

4. Explore the potential of decadal wind forecasts for wind energy sector.

Climate Forecasting Unit

1. Climate related wind information can help to minimise risk of future wind variability on operational, planning and investment decisions: BUT every application is different.

Conclusions:Climate information for wind energy

2. The value of such information needs to be demonstrated in the decision making process i.e. forecast quality → forecast value.

3. Past climate assessment is advanced in the energy sector, but climate forecasting is not. Reason: Forecast skill is a concern for all, especially for predicting forecast magnitude.

4. Key regions where operational climatic wind information demonstrate the greatest value could be explored further to evaluate forecast value in DMP.

5. Users want to see the best possible forecasts to benchmark its potential and limitations.

6. An index of operational forecast skill (in practice) over space and time is requested by many users.

Climate Forecasting Unit

Join the initiative at: www.arecs.org ✔ Seasonal and decadal, wind and solar forecast information✔ Provide feedback, register your needs✔ Receive a quarterly seasonal wind forecast newsletter

Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services (ARECS)

Next Steps

Climate Forecasting Unit

Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services (ARECS)

Next Steps

Climate Forecasting Unit

Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services (ARECS)

Next Steps

Climate Forecasting Unit

Energy Roadmap to 2050

Croatia Workshop

Zagreb, HEP - OIE, d.o.o 17

Number of hours working on nominal power for wind power plants in Croatia (2011)

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Climate change 2011-2040, A2 scenario Wind at 10m, summer

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Hydro in Croatian power system

19

- Half of electricity production in Croatia from 2000 – 2007 came from hydro power plants

- 50% of installed Croatian power capacities are in hydro

- Heat wave in 2003: electricity production in hydro`s down 25%, similar appeared in 2007

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Precipitation change2030-2040

Results from 18 simulations by

13 regional climate models (RCMs)

which participated in the ENSEMBLES

project

Crosses indicate that 66% of the RCMs

agree in the sign of change.

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Bars denote number of RCMs!

Precipitation change 2030-2040

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

From estimation to modeling To propose the methodology how to model climate change impact on RES

CLIMRUN 22

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Current work

Croatia Workshop

Climate Forecasting Unit

Conclusions By the midcentury in Croatia expected climate change impact on renewables is:- neutral impact on solar energy, - positive impact on wind generation,- negative impact on generation from hydropower (especially in the summer)

Currently, stakeholders poorly use climate information (not only decadal projections and seasonal predictions, but also weather forecasts!)

Obstacle for stakeholders: poor understanding of probabilistic approach of forecasts (instated of span of possibilities, they would like to have deterministic approach)

During the workshop, there was a clear progress achieved in both way communication and understanding between two circles (meteorologists and energy experts)

Croatia Workshop