megatrends vs antitrends
DESCRIPTION
We tend to see megatrends as moving exponentially in the future, forgetting that counter-movements can become quite predominant as well at some point. This presentation gives a preview into what would happen if either the trends or their 'antitrend' would prevail. Obviously, the real future will be somewhere inbetween, this is just a thought experiment... enjoy!TRANSCRIPT
megatrends and antitrendshow the extreme future might look like
frederic de meyer founderinstitute for future [email protected] www.i4fi.comwww.fredericdemeyer.com
What this presentation is about
• No trend will grow exponentially indefinitely … for most trends we investigate at the Institute for Future Insights, we can imagine (or actually see) ‘antitrends’ emerge. How the future will turn out at the end will depend on the dynamics between trends and antitrends (and on black swans, of course).
• This presentation is a thought experiment to see what would happen if either trends or antitrends would become predominant. This is a ‘black and white’ story, the ultimate ‘truth’ will obviously lie somewhere in between….
• This is a neutral investigation and does not intend at formulating any judgment !
globalization localization
The world will become one single market without boundaries
Main drivers:• connectivity• cheap labor and products• trading blocks
An increasing portion of our consumption will originate from our direct environment
Main drivers:• protectionism• global warming, climate change• cost of transport (oil)
urbanization back to the country
Virtually all humankind will live in urban areas
Main drivers:• opportunities• access to education, health• communities
Increasing amount of people will choose to live away from cities
Main drivers:• health• connectivity (distant working)
new forms of migration
…will prove unfounded
New technologies will counter global warming effects
Main drivers:• genetic engineering• social entrepreneurship• increasing young population (as % of total population) increases growth potential
Global warming will instigate massive new migration
Main drivers:• famine, desertification extreme weather conditions• talent gap and aging population will make developed countries attract new migrants
scarcity of natural resources
people will learn to live with less
Humanity will keep on consuming scarce natural resources until they run dry
Main drivers:• rise of middle class in emerging markets• globalization
Humanity will learn to balance consumption and availability of natural resources
Main drivers:• scarcity of natural resources• sustainability becomes major business concern• green technologies
geographic mobilitywork and learn at
home
GenY will massively move to where the (economic) action is
Main drivers:• decline of developed economies• long-lasting crises• multicultural world
Work and learning will be totally location-independent
Main drivers:• technological advancements• virtual corporations• microtasking, crowdsourcing, open innovation
genY = new paradigmgenY ~
(babyboomers)^(x)
GenY will bring a completely new set of values to work and society
Main drivers:• self awareness (‘me’ generation)• ethically conscious, sensible to sustainability • bring own technology to workspace
GenY will revive some of the traditional values of (grand)parents
Main drivers:• aversion of complexity• social ‘not-working’• back to human touch
customization simplification
Every product made will eventually be tailor-made
Main drivers:• power of consumers• genY self-awareness• production sophistication
Consumers will return to ‘one size fits all’ products
Main drivers:• aversion of complexity• benefits do not match the cost
ever more connectedopting out becomes
fashionable
Virtually all people and things are connected to a central grid
Main drivers:• digital divide• imperative to make a living• social existence
People will retract from connected life in search of the ‘real’ experience
Main drivers:• simplicity• traditionalists (back to ancestors’ values)
robotization and automation
hands and crafts revival
Virtually all human (professional) activity will be automated or performed by robots
Main drivers:• efficiency gains• technological advancements• artificial intelligence
Traditional work will be cool and very much sought-after
Main drivers:• increased risk (due to increased dependency on tech)• personal touch / creativity
market state state control
Private companies will increasingly take over public responsibility
Main drivers:• public debt• globalization• social entrepreneurship
Government will increasingly take over (troubled) private activities
Main drivers:• crises• anti-globalism, anti-capitalism
website www.i4fi.comblog www.fredericdemeyer.commail [email protected] +32 478 68 13 08
for useful long-term planning tools: http://www.i4fi.com/useful_tools.html
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“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation
“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise. This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are crucial to the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes
“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise” Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble