megatrends and people
TRANSCRIPT
The future:
Megatrends and people
Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.
Futurist
Centre for Future Studieshttp://uk.fremforsk.dk/
Cities in the future
The interweaved city – a
mixture of functions
The company without office
space
The new nomads travelling
from oasis to oasis
The work day and leisure
day as a long fractal route
The networked person:
The new nomads
Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city
trains and motorway service station always on
the move
Juggling with a laptop computer, a smartphone
and a mega size iPad
In touch with people, he or she do no longer
regularly bump into in a corridor
Take decisions all the time guided by the
knowledge base they have access to
New era new Zeistgeist:
Futurisme
From Retro – knitting, baking, growing your own
herbs and vegetables since 2008
To Futurisme:
New thinking and perspective
New optimism
Belief in the future
New digital structures and new technology will
give growth and prosperity in society and in
companies in the future
Population in
cities or suburban areas in billions
1970 1990 2005 2015 2030
World 1.160 2.280 3.170 3.860 4.990
Asia
China
480
144
1.010
320
1.550
530
1.980
690
2.660
870
US 170 210 270 300 350
Europe 410 520 530 540 550
The new
middle classes
approx. 2,5 billions
Africa
US
India
China
Vietnam
Thailand
EU (East)
Turkey
Mexico
East-Afrika
Revitalizing cities
Gentrification – old city centers and old industrial
quarters being changed to attractive city appartments
for young urban professionals
Manhattan, Brooklyn, Berlin, London, Lyon,
Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo……..etc
Young families tend to stay in the city with their children
becoming a part of the revival process of modern bigger
cities
Infrastructural renewal of water supply, heating and
sewers
New tendency: Revitalizing the suburban centers
The digital revolution
version 3.0
• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution
that changes the way we work, produce and
communicate in a new digital society
• Digital structure and software has become a
basic part of peoples lives and public and
privates companies
• A essential infrastructure in daily life like water
and electricity
• Your chances of succeeding depends very
much on your digital capacity
New Technology
Three steps
A: Doing the old in at new way
Combustion engine instead of a steam engine
Computers calculating large mathematic formulas
B: Doing something new that was prior not possible
Word processers, PC, spreadsheet, photos, the Internet,
video, automation, production robots
C: Society change
Suburbs, New distribution of the manufacturing process,
Globalization
Robots – artificial intelligence, 3D printers, New ways of
manufacturing
World Trade grows faster
than World GNP
Sources: MIRAGE database / World Bank database, UNCTAD, IMF WEO database
New criticism
r > g
The rate of return on capital is generally
higher than the rate of economic growth
“Capital” is built on more than a decade of
research by Mr Piketty.
The evolution of inequality since the beginning
of the industrial revolution.
Private wealth dwarfed national income. Only
the chaos of the first and second world wars
and the Depression disrupted this pattern.
But the shocks of the early 20th century have
faded and wealth is now reasserting itself.
Recycling
and cradle to cradle
Coming to a city near you!
Green roofs and green walls
But the real interesting idea is the reuse of
buildings be reusing all the materials from a
demolished building
Concrete is not CO2 neutral – so reuse can
“green” the image of concrete
It makes the building process in inner cities
more demanding and complicated
WHO EATS WHO?
Listen to Darwin:
Survival of the Fittest
Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast
Managers plays a vital role in keeping the company fit
Jesper Bo Jensen
Fremforsk
- centre for future studies
Balticagade 15, st. th.
8000 Århus C
T 86 11 47 44
M 20 67 45 00
uk.fremforsk.dk