new mega trends: rise of the dragon- macro to micro implications of mega trends in china on future...

New Mega Trends : Rise of the DragonNew Mega Trends : Rise of the DragonNew Mega Trends : Rise of the DragonNew Mega Trends : Rise of the DragonMacro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends in China Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends in China Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends in China Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends in China

on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Liveson Future Business, Cultures and Personal Liveson Future Business, Cultures and Personal Liveson Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives

Today’s PresentersToday’s PresentersToday’s PresentersToday’s Presenters

Sarwant SinghSarwant SinghSarwant SinghSarwant SinghPartner

Frost & Sullivan

Archana AmarnathArchana AmarnathArchana AmarnathArchana AmarnathProgram ManagerFrost & Sullivan

2

Archana AmarnathArchana AmarnathArchana AmarnathArchana AmarnathProgram ManagerFrost & Sullivan

Marcia ChaoMarcia ChaoMarcia ChaoMarcia Chao----Mei ChiuMei ChiuMei ChiuMei ChiuResearch AnalystFrost & Sullivan

AgendaAgendaAgendaAgenda

Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the FuturePresentation of Top Mega Trends of the FuturePresentation of Top Mega Trends of the FuturePresentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future

Introduction and Definition of Mega TrendsIntroduction and Definition of Mega TrendsIntroduction and Definition of Mega TrendsIntroduction and Definition of Mega Trends

Key Strategic ConclusionsKey Strategic ConclusionsKey Strategic ConclusionsKey Strategic Conclusions

Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Organisation to Develop Growth StrategiesOrganisation to Develop Growth StrategiesOrganisation to Develop Growth StrategiesOrganisation to Develop Growth Strategies

3

Top Mega Trends Covered in the ResearchTop Mega Trends Covered in the ResearchTop Mega Trends Covered in the ResearchTop Mega Trends Covered in the Research

What is a What is a What is a What is a Mega Trend?Mega Trend?Mega Trend?Mega Trend?

Mega trends are transformative, global transformative, global transformative, global transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching impact on

Urbanization Urbanization Urbanization Urbanization –––– City as a City as a City as a City as a CustomerCustomerCustomerCustomer

Smart is the Smart is the Smart is the Smart is the New GreenNew GreenNew GreenNew Green

Bricks and Bricks and Bricks and Bricks and ClicksClicksClicksClicks

Innovating to Innovating to Innovating to Innovating to ZeroZeroZeroZero

Future Future Future Future Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment

Health, Health, Health, Health, Wellness and Wellness and Wellness and Wellness and Well BeingWell BeingWell BeingWell Being

Mega trends are transformative, global transformative, global transformative, global transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, business, societies, business, societies, business, societies,

economies, cultures and economies, cultures and economies, cultures and economies, cultures and personal livespersonal livespersonal livespersonal lives.

Social TrendsSocial TrendsSocial TrendsSocial Trends

Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity and and and and ConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceConvergence

New Business New Business New Business New Business Models: Value Models: Value Models: Value Models: Value for Manyfor Manyfor Manyfor Many

Beyond BRIC: Beyond BRIC: Beyond BRIC: Beyond BRIC: The Next The Next The Next The Next Game Game Game Game ChangersChangersChangersChangers

Wellness and Wellness and Wellness and Wellness and Well BeingWell BeingWell BeingWell Being

Future of Future of Future of Future of MobilityMobilityMobilityMobility

4

Mega Trend 1:Mega Trend 1:Mega Trend 1:Mega Trend 1:

Urbanisation Urbanisation Urbanisation Urbanisation ---- “City “City “City “City as a Customer”as a Customer”as a Customer”as a Customer”


Urbanisation Urbanisation Urbanisation Urbanisation ---- “City “City “City “City as a Customer”as a Customer”as a Customer”as a Customer”

China to have 13 Mega Cities That Will Contribute $6.24 Trillion to China to have 13 Mega Cities That Will Contribute $6.24 Trillion to China to have 13 Mega Cities That Will Contribute $6.24 Trillion to China to have 13 Mega Cities That Will Contribute $6.24 Trillion to the Total GDP in 2025the Total GDP in 2025the Total GDP in 2025the Total GDP in 2025

By 2025, 921 Million people (65.4% of China’s Population) will Live in Cities (equals to 2.6 times of By 2025, 921 Million people (65.4% of China’s Population) will Live in Cities (equals to 2.6 times of By 2025, 921 Million people (65.4% of China’s Population) will Live in Cities (equals to 2.6 times of By 2025, 921 Million people (65.4% of China’s Population) will Live in Cities (equals to 2.6 times of U.S. Total Population)U.S. Total Population)U.S. Total Population)U.S. Total Population)Mega cities in 2025

Emerging mega cities in 2025 (4-8 million population)

Beijing, 22.6

Tianjin, 11.9

Haerbin, 8.2

Dalian

Ulumuqi

TiayuanShijiazhuang

Qingdao

Shenyang

Changchun

Wuhan, 12.7

Source: Department of Economics and Social Affairs, United Nations; International

Institute of Applied System Analysis; Frost & Sullivan

Shanghai, 28.4

Hangzhou, 8.5

Guangzhou ,15.5

Shenzhen,15.6

Hong Kong, 8.2Foshan, 9.8

Dongguan

Shantou

Zhongshan

WuxiSuzhou

Ningbo

Kunming

Xiamen

Wenzhou

Changsha

Xi’an

Hefei

ZhengzhouJinan

Wuhan, 12.7

Nanjing, 8.5

Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of over 8 million and GDP

of $250 billion or more. The figures represent population in Million

No. of

Province

Urbanization

Rate

% in Country

Urban

Population

3 >80% 6.9 %

5 70 – 79 % 28.3%

7 60 - 69% 26.4%

14 50 - 59% 36.3%

2 < 50 % 2.1%

Chongqing ,13.6

Chengdu, 10.0

7

China to Have 6 Mega Corridors and 3 Transportation Corridors in China to Have 6 Mega Corridors and 3 Transportation Corridors in China to Have 6 Mega Corridors and 3 Transportation Corridors in China to Have 6 Mega Corridors and 3 Transportation Corridors in 2025202520252025

Beijing-Harbin & Dalian (48)

Jiaozhou-Shijiazhuang (20)

Xuzhou-Lanzhou (20)

Beijing-Shanghai (94)

8

Note: The figures in brackets represent population in Million

Mega Corridors are corridors that connect two major cities or Mega Regions (60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25 million or more). The corridors can be planned economic corridors (with planned investment in transport infrastructure, industrial zones, energy, or real-estate) or naturally evolving urban corridors

Transportation Corridors are those corridors that connect Mega Cities or Mega Regions by transport links eg. Highways, rail, etc

Mega Corridor:

Mega Transportation Corridor:

Shanghai-Chengdu (122)

Ningbo-Shenzhen (78)

Beijing-Guangzhou (109)

Shanghai-Kunming (97)

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong (39)

Source: National Development and Reform Commission of China; Population Division, United Nations; Frost & Sullivan.

Cities, and Not Countries,Cities, and Not Countries,Cities, and Not Countries,Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Will Drive Will Drive Will Drive Wealth Creation Wealth Creation Wealth Creation Wealth Creation In the FutureIn the FutureIn the FutureIn the Future

Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.

What are the Micro Implications?

High Economic PowerHub and Spoke Business ModelTransit oriented developmentNew Mobility SolutionsCity as a Customer

9

Mega Mega Mega Mega Trend 2Trend 2Trend 2Trend 2: : : :

Smart Smart Smart Smart is the New is the New is the New is the New GreenGreenGreenGreen

Mega Mega Mega Mega Trend 2Trend 2Trend 2Trend 2: : : :

Smart Smart Smart Smart is the New is the New is the New is the New GreenGreenGreenGreen

Smart Factory of the Future in ChinaSmart Factory of the Future in ChinaSmart Factory of the Future in ChinaSmart Factory of the Future in China

Virtual Planning and Virtual Planning and Virtual Planning and Virtual Planning and SimulationSimulationSimulationSimulation

Robotics Robotics Robotics Robotics ManufacturingManufacturingManufacturingManufacturing

Augmented RealityAugmented RealityAugmented RealityAugmented RealityEg. Canon’s MR systems in

Japan

12

Cloud ComputingCloud ComputingCloud ComputingCloud Computing3D Printing3D Printing3D Printing3D Printing LocationLocationLocationLocation----BasedBasedBasedBased----Services in WarehouseServices in WarehouseServices in WarehouseServices in Warehouse

Gen YGen YGen YGen YGeo Geo Geo Geo SocializationSocializationSocializationSocialization

HukouHukouHukouHukou System System System System Reform and Reform and Reform and Reform and OneOneOneOne----Child Child Child Child

Surge in Surge in Surge in Surge in Asian Work Asian Work Asian Work Asian Work

PoolPoolPoolPool

PersonalPersonalPersonalPersonal

Robots Robots Robots Robots

14

“She“She“She“She----conomyconomyconomyconomy””””

Ageing Ageing Ageing Ageing PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulation

Reverse Reverse Reverse Reverse Brain DrainBrain DrainBrain DrainBrain Drain

Middle Middle Middle Middle BulgeBulgeBulgeBulge

HukouHukouHukouHukou System System System System Reform and Reform and Reform and Reform and OneOneOneOne----Child Child Child Child

PolicyPolicyPolicyPolicy

Aging China: China to Have 315 Million People Aged Over 60 by 2025 Aging China: China to Have 315 Million People Aged Over 60 by 2025 Aging China: China to Have 315 Million People Aged Over 60 by 2025 Aging China: China to Have 315 Million People Aged Over 60 by 2025 The Aging Population will Boost Healthcare, Leisure and Insurance IndustriesThe Aging Population will Boost Healthcare, Leisure and Insurance IndustriesThe Aging Population will Boost Healthcare, Leisure and Insurance IndustriesThe Aging Population will Boost Healthcare, Leisure and Insurance Industries

Population Pyramid, (China), 2012 and 2025Population Pyramid, (China), 2012 and 2025Population Pyramid, (China), 2012 and 2025Population Pyramid, (China), 2012 and 2025

(million people)

Micro OpportunitiesMicro OpportunitiesMicro OpportunitiesMicro Opportunities

Pharmaceuticals & Health Supplement

Aged Care

E-Health

Senior Tourism

He

alt

hca

reH

ea

lth

care

He

alt

hca

reH

ea

lth

care

20252025202520252012201220122012

45454545----59595959

60+60+60+60+ 308.2308.2308.2308.2202.9

271.0 314.5

RetirementRetirementRetirementRetirement

15

Source: Ministry of Civil Affairs, PRC; National Population and Family Planning Commission, PRC; Population Division, United Nation;

Note: The Population Pyramid is based on the assumption of China continuing its current birth control policies.

Senior Tourism

Senior Social Service

Elderly Education

Life Insurance

Assisted Living (e.g. Robots)

Le

isu

reL

eis

ure

Le

isu

reL

eis

ure

0000----14141414

15151515----29292929

30303030----44444444

252.9

254.9

325.2

328.1

313.5

214.9

Pro

du

cts

Pro

du

cts

Pro

du

cts

Pro

du

cts

Middle Bulge: Around 949 Million Middle Class Individuals to Middle Bulge: Around 949 Million Middle Class Individuals to Middle Bulge: Around 949 Million Middle Class Individuals to Middle Bulge: Around 949 Million Middle Class Individuals to Account for 68% of Total China’s Population in 2020Account for 68% of Total China’s Population in 2020Account for 68% of Total China’s Population in 2020Account for 68% of Total China’s Population in 2020

2020202020202020

1396.2 1396.2 1396.2 1396.2 million million million million IndividualsIndividualsIndividualsIndividuals

1,348.9 1,348.9 1,348.9 1,348.9 million million million million IndividualsIndividualsIndividualsIndividuals

2010201020102010

UpperUpperUpperUpper----Middle Middle Middle Middle ClassClassClassClass

AffluentAffluentAffluentAffluent

RichRichRichRich

Household Disposal Household Disposal Household Disposal Household Disposal Income Income Income Income Per AnnumPer AnnumPer AnnumPer Annum

$100,000$100,000$100,000$100,000

0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%(3)(3)(3)(3)

0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%((((1.5)1.5)1.5)1.5)

0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%((((4.9)4.9)4.9)4.9)

$60,000$60,000$60,000$60,00010.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%

((((144.0)144.0)144.0)144.0)

0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%

((((8.4)8.4)8.4)8.4)

7%7%7%7%((((91.7)91.7)91.7)91.7)

16

Source: Statistic Bureau of China, 2010; Euromonitor; Population Division, United Nations; Frost & Sullivan

Note: Note: Figures in the brackets are millions of individuals. The average household size in China is approximately 3. Percentage numbers do not add up to 100% because of rounding. Disposal Income = actual income that can be used for final consumption, non-compulsory expenditure and savings

$10,000$10,000$10,000$10,000

PoorPoorPoorPoor

Lower Middle ClassLower Middle ClassLower Middle ClassLower Middle Class

Middle ClassMiddle ClassMiddle ClassMiddle Class

UpperUpperUpperUpper----Middle Middle Middle Middle ClassClassClassClass

Below Poverty Below Poverty Below Poverty Below Poverty LineLineLineLine

64%64%64%64%

((((861.2)861.2)861.2)861.2)

14%14%14%14%

((((189.4)189.4)189.4)189.4)

14.7%14.7%14.7%14.7%

((((205.0)205.0)205.0)205.0)

29.7%29.7%29.7%29.7%

(414.5)(414.5)(414.5)(414.5)

43.0%43.0%43.0%43.0%

((((600.0)600.0)600.0)600.0)

1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%

(21.4)(21.4)(21.4)(21.4)Poverty LinePoverty LinePoverty LinePoverty Line

$22,000$22,000$22,000$22,000

10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%

((((144.0)144.0)144.0)144.0)

7%7%7%7%((((100.8)100.8)100.8)100.8)

7%7%7%7%((((99.5)99.5)99.5)99.5)

7%7%7%7%((((91.7)91.7)91.7)91.7)

$1,000$1,000$1,000$1,000

$7,500$7,500$7,500$7,500

Six Degrees Apart: Six Degrees Apart: Six Degrees Apart: Six Degrees Apart: Social Networking Users to Reach 488 Social Networking Users to Reach 488 Social Networking Users to Reach 488 Social Networking Users to Reach 488 Million in China by 2015Million in China by 2015Million in China by 2015Million in China by 2015

Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese NetizensNetizensNetizensNetizens will be Involved in Social Networking Serviceswill be Involved in Social Networking Serviceswill be Involved in Social Networking Serviceswill be Involved in Social Networking Services

Social Network SitesSocial Network SitesSocial Network SitesSocial Network Sites

350.5million244.2

million

MicroMicroMicroMicro----blogsblogsblogsblogs

364.5million249.9

million

2011201120112011 2015201520152015Users of Top Social Networking Services, (China), Users of Top Social Networking Services, (China), Users of Top Social Networking Services, (China), Users of Top Social Networking Services, (China), 2011 and 20152011 and 20152011 and 20152011 and 2015

NonNonNonNon----Internet UsersInternet UsersInternet UsersInternet Users

Internet UsersInternet UsersInternet UsersInternet Users

513.4 513.4 513.4 513.4 millionmillionmillionmillion


1111Total: Total: Total: Total: 1,355.2 1,355.2 1,355.2 1,355.2 millionmillionmillionmillionTotal: Total: Total: Total: 1,355.2 1,355.2 1,355.2 1,355.2 millionmillionmillionmillion Total: Total: Total: Total: 1,377.8million1,377.8million1,377.8million1,377.8millionTotal: Total: Total: Total: 1,377.8million1,377.8million1,377.8million1,377.8million

NonNonNonNon----Internet UsersInternet UsersInternet UsersInternet Users

Internet UsersInternet UsersInternet UsersInternet Users701 701 701 701 millionmillionmillionmillion

676.8 million676.8 million676.8 million676.8 million

2222

17

20152015201520152011201120112011 20152015201520152011201120112011

Media SharingMedia SharingMedia SharingMedia Sharing

2015201520152015

455.7million

2011201120112011

325.31 million

SocialSocialSocialSocial----gaminggaminggaminggaming

2015201520152015

427.6million

2011201120112011

324.28 million

194.68million


Non Social Non Social Non Social Non Social Networking Networking Networking Networking UsersUsersUsersUsers

Social Social Social Social Networking Networking Networking Networking UsersUsersUsersUsers

213million

Non Social Non Social Non Social Non Social Networking Networking Networking Networking

UsersUsersUsersUsers

Social Social Social Social Networking Networking Networking Networking

UsersUsersUsersUsers

Source: World Bank 2011; China Internet Network Information Center, PRC; Frost & Sullivan

3333 4444

Note: the predictions of user number are based on current growth and market share

488 488 488 488 millionmillionmillionmillion


Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity & & & & ConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceConvergence


Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity Connectivity & & & & ConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceConvergence

10 Connected Devices for 10 Connected Devices for 10 Connected Devices for 10 Connected Devices for Every Every Every Every Household by 2020Household by 2020Household by 2020Household by 2020

5 connected devices for every 5 connected devices for every 5 connected devices for every 5 connected devices for every user user user user by 2020by 2020by 2020by 2020

80 Billion Connected Devices 80 Billion Connected Devices 80 Billion Connected Devices 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020By 2020By 2020By 2020

5 billion 5 billion 5 billion 5 billion internet users by internet users by internet users by internet users by 2020202020202020

500 devices with unique 500 devices with unique 500 devices with unique 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) digital IDs (Internet of things) digital IDs (Internet of things) digital IDs (Internet of things) per square per square per square per square kilometre by 2020kilometre by 2020kilometre by 2020kilometre by 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

19

China to Launch 211 Satellites before 2017China to Launch 211 Satellites before 2017China to Launch 211 Satellites before 2017China to Launch 211 Satellites before 2017China to See it’s Own Space Station by 2020China to See it’s Own Space Station by 2020China to See it’s Own Space Station by 2020China to See it’s Own Space Station by 2020

Chang’e Project

Kuafu ProjectSolar act. observation

2003-12

Shenzhou-9&102012

Tiangong-2 &32012-16

China’s 1st

Space Station2020

20

Accumulated No. By 2011 By 2017

Sate

llite

sCommunication Satellite 29

111 211

Navigation Satellite 14

Earth Observation Satellite 38

Science R&D Satellite 16

Probe Satellite 14

Space Missions 150* 250

Space Centers & Units 3 4*Note: The numbers indicates successful launches

Source: CNSA; China Great Wall Industry Corporation; Frost & Sullivan

Chang’e ProjectLunar exploration

2003-23100 Rockets 100

Satellites Project

2011-16

Augmented RealityAugmented RealityAugmented RealityAugmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.

21

RealityRealityRealityRealityAugmented Augmented Augmented Augmented

RealityRealityRealityRealityAugmented Augmented Augmented Augmented VirtualityVirtualityVirtualityVirtuality Virtual WorldVirtual WorldVirtual WorldVirtual World

Augmented Reality Impacting Different Augmented Reality Impacting Different Augmented Reality Impacting Different Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal ExperiencesPersonal ExperiencesPersonal ExperiencesPersonal Experiences

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

22

YihaodianYihaodianYihaodianYihaodian Plans Plans Plans Plans 1000 Augmented Reality Stores 1000 Augmented Reality Stores 1000 Augmented Reality Stores 1000 Augmented Reality Stores in Chinain Chinain Chinain China

“Unlimited Yihaodian” stores (1,200 square meters) use unused city spaces and stock around 1,000 items.

23

Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Bricks and ClicksBricks and ClicksBricks and ClicksBricks and Clicks

Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Mega Trend 5:Bricks and ClicksBricks and ClicksBricks and ClicksBricks and Clicks

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2018-2019: China to

surpass US, the later

2.8x

Market

China Retail Sales to Account over 1/3 of the World in 2025China Retail Sales to Account over 1/3 of the World in 2025China Retail Sales to Account over 1/3 of the World in 2025China Retail Sales to Account over 1/3 of the World in 2025China is to Surpass US to be the Largest Retail Market before 2020China is to Surpass US to be the Largest Retail Market before 2020China is to Surpass US to be the Largest Retail Market before 2020China is to Surpass US to be the Largest Retail Market before 2020

$2.8

$4.1

$5.2

2011

2015

2020

2025

7.29

Retail Sales Per Capita

($ thousand)

Na

tio

na

l Re

tail

Sa

les

($ t

rill

ion

)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

surpass US, the later

will have total retail

sales of $4.9-5 trillion

Market

Value

25

$1.8

25

2.542.81

Na

tio

na

l Re

tail

Sa

les

($ t

rill

ion

)

Retail Sales(Offline) Retail Sales(Online B2C) Note: Some numbers do not add up because of the rounding.

Source: World Bank; Prudential Real Estate Investors; Economic Intelligence

Unit; McKinsey & Company; National Bureau of Statistics, PRCNote: The market size includes only B2C sales and does not include

C2C

The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Integrated Cross Channel Model Integrated Cross Channel Model Integrated Cross Channel Model

Department

Stores

Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps

Bricks (preBricks (preBricks (preBricks (pre----2000)2000)2000)2000) +Advent of Clicks (post+Advent of Clicks (post+Advent of Clicks (post+Advent of Clicks (post----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Source: Frost &

Sullivan Analysis

Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online

Markets

The Future The Future The Future The Future ---- Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)

26


Economic TrendsEconomic TrendsEconomic TrendsEconomic Trends


Economic TrendsEconomic TrendsEconomic TrendsEconomic Trends

16.9816.70

25.11

10.98

20.76

38.88

China’s GDP To Reach $38 Trillion by 2025 Making It The China’s GDP To Reach $38 Trillion by 2025 Making It The China’s GDP To Reach $38 Trillion by 2025 Making It The China’s GDP To Reach $38 Trillion by 2025 Making It The Largest Economy in the WorldLargest Economy in the WorldLargest Economy in the WorldLargest Economy in the World

1111Largest economy Largest economy Largest economy Largest economy

in the worldin the worldin the worldin the world

0.47 0.871.37

2.43

6.15

8.84

12.39

16.98

10.46

16.7010.98

28

Note: The value shown as GDP & Population People’s Republic of China, including Hong Kong SAR & Macao SAR. GDP at Current Prices based on 2011 numbers.Appreciation of the Renmibi currency and inflation are factored into the GDP forecast.

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank 2012; Prudential Real Estate Investors; The Economist 2011; National Development & Reform Commission of China; Frost &

Sullivan

$ Trillion

Nominal GDP GrowthNominal GDP GrowthNominal GDP GrowthNominal GDP Growth 1990199019901990 1995199519951995 2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025

Optimistic (12-14%)

Frost & Sullivan (8-9%)

Conservative (5-7%)

(Optimistic Scenario)

29

Mega Trend Mega Trend Mega Trend Mega Trend 7: 7: 7: 7:

Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment


Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure Future Infrastructure DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment

837.9

553.3

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

553.35

110.67

142.2951.38

252.96

316.20

China Infrastructure Spending to Grow to China Infrastructure Spending to Grow to China Infrastructure Spending to Grow to China Infrastructure Spending to Grow to $2.7 Trillion $2.7 Trillion $2.7 Trillion $2.7 Trillion (2011(2011(2011(2011----2015)2015)2015)2015)

117.52111.61

49.94147.16

133.34

2011201120112011----2015201520152015

$2,739 billion$2,739 billion$2,739 billion$2,739 billion

2006200620062006----2010201020102010

$2,365 billion$2,365 billion$2,365 billion$2,365 billion

2006-2010 (11th Five Year Plan)

2011-2015 (12th Five Year Plan)

Infrastructure Investments (on fixed assets), (China), 2006Infrastructure Investments (on fixed assets), (China), 2006Infrastructure Investments (on fixed assets), (China), 2006Infrastructure Investments (on fixed assets), (China), 2006----2015201520152015

747.2

360.7

697.9

117.5 111.6 49.9147.2 133.3

474.3

110.7 142.351.4

253.0 316.2

0

200

400

600

Power supply

Railway Roads Urban Public Transport

Water Transport

Air Transport

Telecomm Water Conservation 837.93

474.30

553.35

31

747.16

360.71

697.88

Source: National Development and Reform Commission, PRC; National Bureau of Statistics, PRC; Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development, PRC; Asian Logistics and Maritime Conference, 2011; KPMG, 2011; Ministry of Transport, PRC; Ministry of Railways, PRC; Credit Suisse; Frost & Sullivan, 2012

RailwayRailwayRailwayRailway RoadsRoadsRoadsRoads Urban Public TransportUrban Public TransportUrban Public TransportUrban Public Transport Water TransportWater TransportWater TransportWater Transport

Water ConservationWater ConservationWater ConservationWater ConservationAviationAviationAviationAviation TelecommTelecommTelecommTelecomm

Power SupplyPower SupplyPower SupplyPower Supply

Note: all numbers in charts represent billion USD. RMB:USD=0.1581:1 as nominal value by 2012

High Speed Rail High Speed Rail High Speed Rail High Speed Rail to See the Largest Expansion in Chinato See the Largest Expansion in Chinato See the Largest Expansion in Chinato See the Largest Expansion in ChinaChina to Invest $553.5 Billion to Extend the High Speed Rail Network to China to Invest $553.5 Billion to Extend the High Speed Rail Network to China to Invest $553.5 Billion to Extend the High Speed Rail Network to China to Invest $553.5 Billion to Extend the High Speed Rail Network to

16,000 Km by 2020 (expected 25,000 Km in 2025)16,000 Km by 2020 (expected 25,000 Km in 2025)16,000 Km by 2020 (expected 25,000 Km in 2025)16,000 Km by 2020 (expected 25,000 Km in 2025)

ShenyangShenyangShenyangShenyang

ShijiazhuangShijiazhuangShijiazhuangShijiazhuang

Source: National Development and Reform Commission of China; International Institute of Urban Development, Beijing; Ministry of Railway of China; Ministry of Railway of China; Frost & Sullivan, 2012

JinanJinanJinanJinan

ZhengzhouZhengzhouZhengzhouZhengzhou

NanjingNanjingNanjingNanjing

ChangshaChangshaChangshaChangshaHangzhouHangzhouHangzhouHangzhou

XianXianXianXian

Emerging traffic hub in 2015-2020

NanchangNanchangNanchangNanchang

LanzhouLanzhouLanzhouLanzhou

KunmingKunmingKunmingKunming200200200200----250 km/h250 km/h250 km/h250 km/h

300300300300----350 km/h350 km/h350 km/h350 km/h

160160160160----200 km/h200 km/h200 km/h200 km/h

32


Top Industries of Top Industries of Top Industries of Top Industries of The FutureThe FutureThe FutureThe Future


Top Industries of Top Industries of Top Industries of Top Industries of The FutureThe FutureThe FutureThe Future

Top Industries in China in 2025Top Industries in China in 2025Top Industries in China in 2025Top Industries in China in 2025

FinanceFinanceFinanceFinanceTo Gain 40% of IPOs over

US & UK by 2020

ConstructionConstructionConstructionConstructionworlds’ largest construction

market since 2010

RetailRetailRetailRetailBecoming worlds’ largest

by 2019

34

AutomotiveAutomotiveAutomotiveAutomotiveWorld’s largest car market

since 2009

FinanceFinanceFinanceFinanceTo Gain 40% of IPOs over

US & UK by 2020

ConstructionConstructionConstructionConstructionworlds’ largest construction

market since 2010

AviationAviationAviationAviationTo become world’s largest

after 2025

Photo Credits: Dreamstime

RetailRetailRetailRetailBecoming worlds’ largest

by 2019

LogisticsLogisticsLogisticsLogisticsBecoming worlds’ largest

by 2016

Luxury GoodsLuxury GoodsLuxury GoodsLuxury GoodsBecoming world’s 2nd largest

by 2016

Note: All industries have been analyzed in detail in the report

So what will the So what will the So what will the So what will the futurefuturefuturefuture look like in 2025look like in 2025look like in 2025look like in 2025

1.1.1.1. Every 1 in 3 homes in China will have a personal robot. Every 1 in 3 homes in China will have a personal robot. Every 1 in 3 homes in China will have a personal robot. Every 1 in 3 homes in China will have a personal robot.

2.2.2.2. Digital Assistants Digital Assistants Digital Assistants Digital Assistants will guide our everyday liveswill guide our everyday liveswill guide our everyday liveswill guide our everyday lives

3.3.3.3. Fortune 500 list will have 200 companies from China (72 in 2012)Fortune 500 list will have 200 companies from China (72 in 2012)Fortune 500 list will have 200 companies from China (72 in 2012)Fortune 500 list will have 200 companies from China (72 in 2012)

4.4.4.4. Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese netizensnetizensnetizensnetizens will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking

services services services services

5.5.5.5. We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our well being well being well being well being andandandand wonder wonder wonder wonder

4.4.4.4. Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese Around 70% of Chinese netizensnetizensnetizensnetizens will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking will be involved in social networking

services services services services

5.5.5.5. We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our We will have multiple devices monitoring our well being well being well being well being andandandand wonder wonder wonder wonder

and designer drugs and designer drugs and designer drugs and designer drugs will be common placewill be common placewill be common placewill be common place

6.6.6.6. China will be the China will be the China will be the China will be the top super power top super power top super power top super power in terms of impact to trade and in terms of impact to trade and in terms of impact to trade and in terms of impact to trade and

investment.investment.investment.investment.

35

MacroMacroMacroMacro MicroMicroMicroMicro

From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy ImplementationStrategy ImplementationStrategy ImplementationStrategy Implementation

Mega TrendMega TrendMega TrendMega TrendSelected trends that impact your

business and markets

Analysis of Opportunities and Analysis of Opportunities and Analysis of Opportunities and Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet NeedsUnmet NeedsUnmet NeedsUnmet Needs

ToToToTo

Sub TrendSub TrendSub TrendSub TrendA sub-layer of trends that has a

wide ranging impact

Impact to Your IndustryImpact to Your IndustryImpact to Your IndustryImpact to Your IndustryVisualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-

building and macro economic forecasts

Impact on Future Product/ Impact on Future Product/ Impact on Future Product/ Impact on Future Product/ TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology

36

Learn More About Learn More About Learn More About Learn More About “New Mega Trends”“New Mega Trends”“New Mega Trends”“New Mega Trends”

Upcoming Book:Upcoming Book:Upcoming Book:Upcoming Book:

New Mega Trends New Mega Trends New Mega Trends New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives

By Sarwant Singh

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423

Join Our Mega Trend Group OnJoin Our Mega Trend Group OnJoin Our Mega Trend Group OnJoin Our Mega Trend Group On

Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan ResearchFrost & Sullivan ResearchFrost & Sullivan ResearchFrost & Sullivan Research

37

Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionFrost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionFrost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionFrost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionProvides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Provides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Provides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Provides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific

Topics by Industry VerticalsTopics by Industry VerticalsTopics by Industry VerticalsTopics by Industry Verticals

AAAA

Global Mega Trends Global Mega Trends Global Mega Trends Global Mega Trends AnalysisAnalysisAnalysisAnalysis

• Featuring global study updates annually and analysis of key topics like Urbanisation, Smart is the New Green, Health, Wellness and Well Being

BBBB

Regional Mega Trends Regional Mega Trends Regional Mega Trends Regional Mega Trends and Implicationsand Implicationsand Implicationsand Implications

• Analysis of global Mega Trends in key geographies such as

1. Africa2. India3. China 4. Latin America

• Identification of specific regional trends (e.g., beneficiation in Africa)

CCCCFocus on Specific Mega Focus on Specific Mega Focus on Specific Mega Focus on Specific Mega

Trends and Their Impact by Trends and Their Impact by Trends and Their Impact by Trends and Their Impact by IndustryIndustryIndustryIndustry

• Focus on specific Topics e.g. the Impact of Connectivity and Convergence on Healthcare Devices, Urban Logistics .

• There will be over 30 such topics completed annually

38

3. China 4. Latin America

• Identification of specific regional trends (e.g., beneficiation in Africa)

Devices, Urban Logistics . There will be over 30 such topics completed annually

360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on 360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on 360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on 360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on IndustriesIndustriesIndustriesIndustries

Contact Contact Contact Contact InformationInformationInformationInformation

Sarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation

Research Group and Automotive & Transportation

(+44) 2079157843

[email protected]

Sarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation

Research Group and Automotive & Transportation

(+44) 2079157843

[email protected]

Archana AmarnathProgram Manager, Visionary Innovation Research

Group

(+44) 2079157893

[email protected]

Archana AmarnathProgram Manager, Visionary Innovation Research

Group

(+44) 2079157893

[email protected]

Dr. Neil WangPartner & Managing Director, China

(+86) 2132098895

[email protected]

39

Marcia Chao-Mei ChiuResearch Analyst

(+44) 2073438385

[email protected]

new mega trends: rise of the dragon- macro to micro implications of mega trends in china on future...

Documents