meeting - granicuscms6ftp.visioninternet.com/novato/agendas/pdfstaff... · 2018-03-23 · 1...

1 cc18_059

MEETING DATE: March 27, 2018

TO: City Council

FROM: Regan M. Candelario, City Manager

SUBJECT: REPORT FROM TRANSPORATION AUTHORITY OF MARIN (TAM) ON MEASURE A AND POSSIBLY RENEWING THE TRANSPORATION SALES TAX IN 2018

REQUEST

Receive a presentation from the Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) and provide feedback on the proposal to renew Measure A - ½ -Cent Transportation Sales Tax.

DISCUSSION

The Transportation Sales Tax (Measure A) was approved by Marin voters on November 2, 2004 and started collecting revenues on a ½ cent sales tax on April 1, 2005. Measure A authorized the collection of sales tax revenues over a 20-year period, and currently raises over $25 million dollars each year dedicated to local transportation projects and programs. It is approaching its 12th year of collection with a sunset date of March 31, 2025. Tam’s 24-member Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC) is scheduling meetings with local cities to present information and solicit input on its draft Expenditure Plan as part of an ongoing public outreach process that has included public and stakeholder input as well as a public opinion survey that indicated strong support for the continuation of the ½-cent Transportation Sales Tax. Please see the attached letter to Novato from Executive Director Dianne Steinhauser dated March 20. The letter provides a full background and specific requests for input from the City of Novato. There are also other materials provided for the City Council and community to review including an expenditure plan proposal, draft EPAC proposal fact sheet, and the EPAC member listing.

RECOMMENDATION

Receive the presentation from TAM and provide input for the TAM Staff.

ATTACHMENTS 1. TAM letter to Novato City Manager2. Expenditure Plan Proposal3. Draft EPAC Proposal Factsheets4. EPAC Member List5. TAM 2018 Poll6. Sales Tax Renewal Process

922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945

(415) 899-8900FAX (415) 899-8213

www.novato.org

J-15

1

lmcdowall

RC

Transportation Authority of Mann

900 Fifth AvenueSuite 100 March 20, 2018San RafaelCalifornia 94901 Mr. Regan Candelario

City ManagerPhone: 415/226-0815 City of NovatoFax: 415/226-0816

922 Machin Avenuewww.tam.ca.gov Novato, CA 94945

Belvedere Dear Mr. Candelario:James Campbell

Please accept a request for a presentation to the Novato City Council from theCorteMadera . . . .

Diane Furst Transportation Authority of Mann (TAM) Executive Director for the purpose of discussinginformation regarding the Measure A Transportation Sales Tax, the proposed Draft

Fairfax Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan and recent public opinion poli results.John Reed Considering an upcoming early renewal of the ½-cent transportation sales tax, TAM is in

the process of educational outreach to Cities and Towns to provide information on the draftLSiner proposal. TAM is seeking input on the Draft Plan, such as responses to the following:

Mill Valley • Does this new Draft Expenditure Plan meet the needs of your jurisdiction? What areStephanie Moulton-Peters your key priorities?

Novato• What other information do you need to support the plan in the future? Details on trip

Eric Lucan reduction, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, travel time benefits and other metricscan all be made available for your assessment of whether to support.

RSe h K hi• What flexibility would you like to see in the program? Could you support a re-set of

ac uthe plan every 10 years, or more frequently? Staff at TAM can present examples on

San Anselmo how that would be done.Brian Colbert • What additional organizations or local interests should be consulted regarding the

plan?San Rafael

Gary Phillips Background

Sausalito . . .

Ray Withy Measure A, Mann’s ½-cent Transportation Sales Tax, is a cntical local funding source thatgenerates approximately $25 million each year to support our local transportation needs.

Tiburon The Measure was passed by over 71% of Mann voters in 2004 and funds are spent inAlice Fredericks accordance with the 20-year Measure A Transportation Sales Tax Expenditure Plan.

County of Mann .

Damon Connolly The expenditure plan is now nearly 15 years old and the TAM Board of CommissionersKatie Rice has been considering early renewal of the sales tax measure to respond to current needsKathrin Sears and adjusting how the funds can be spent moving forward. Renewing the transportationDennis Rodoni sales tax would create an ongoing reliable stream of revenue for much needed projects andJudy Arnold programs.

During the first quarter of last year, TAM visited local jurisdictions to provide educationalbriefings to and introduce the idea of renewing and possibly increasing our county-widetransportation sales tax. These briefings focused on providing information about theprojects and programs supported by the current sales tax and receiving feedback fromelected officials and residents on priorities and unmet needs. The idea of legislatively

Making the Most of Mann County Transportation Dollars

J-15 1.

2

ATTACHMENT 1

Letter to Regan CandelarioMarch 20, 2018

increasing the statewide sales tax cap to enable an increase in the transportation sales tax was initiallydiscussed, then abandoned.

A baseline poll was conducted in May 2017 to gauge public opinion on renewing the Y2-cent sales tax orpotentially increasing of the sales tax to 3%-cent. The poll demonstrated considerably more support forrenewing the sales tax rather than increasing the sales tax, with 72% of likely 2018 voters supporting renewalof the existing ½-cent transportation sales tax and a range from 60.8% to 66.9% supporting an increase to 3%

cent.

In January 2018, a second poll was taken, specifically addressing a renewal of the current sales tax and testingthe features of a Draft Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan, along with supportive informational statementsand critical statements. The results of this second poli will be reviewed.

Proposal Overview

Back in June 2017, the TAM Board approved the formation and membership of a Transportation Sales TaxExpenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC). The EPAC is comprised of 24 community membersrepresenting a broad range of neighborhood, business, civic and advocacy interests in Mann County. TheEPAC met between June and December 2017 to develop a plan to renew the existing ½-cent transportationsales tax and consider expanding the sales tax to 34-cent. The membership of that Committee is attached.

The EPAC reviewed the baseline poli results, received broad education about the current ½-centtransportation sales tax and learned from a variety of agencies about current transportation programs andunmet transportation needs. Based on this information, the EPAC developed a draft expenditure a plan thatculminated with a consensus recommendation to pursue a 30-year extension of the current 1/2-cent sales taxto be placed on the ballot in November of 2018. The new Expenditure Plan would take effect immediately,replacing the existing plan. A 2/3rds approval of those voting would be required.

A chart and factsheets detailing the committee recommendations are attached. Primary goals of the ½-centplan are to keep the core structure of the existing expenditure plan and expand much needed congestion reliefprograms.

Although there were diverse interests represented by the EPAC, the committee reached consensus anddemonstrated a strong commitment to building from the current successful transportation sales tax measure,keeping the core structure and maintaining the top-line funding percentages:

• 7.5% to Highway and Interchange Improvements• 26.5 % to Local Streets and Roads• 11% to Safe Routes to Schools, Education, Infrastructure and Crossing Guards• 55% to Local, Rural, Student and Special Needs Transit

With No New Taxes the Proposal Would:• Respond to current needs and adjust how the funds can be spent moving forward• Continue a reliable stream of local revenue into the future to enable long-term planning• Maintain and expand successful projects and programs, including the Safe Routes to Schools

programs, local road maintenance and local transit• Expand school-related transit and yellow bus programs• Prevent cuts in the current Crossing Guard program• Provide a local funding source for key operational improvement projects including the Mann

Sonoma Narrows and the Northbound US-bY to Eastbound 1-580 Direct Connector• Leverage other regional, state and federal funding for needed transportation improvements• Provide seed funding for projects related to sea-level rise, innovative technologies and for support of

mobility concepts for first/last mile transit solutions and peak hour demand management

3

Letter to Regan CandelarioMarch 20, 2018

In addition to recognizing the importance of continuing this local funding source, the committee alsorecognized the current tax-sensitive climate. To protect and maintain the existing sales tax and associatedprograms, the committee did not think it was prudent to try to increase the tax. They recognized the changesin our transportation environment and the need to adjust how funds are being spent. They also acknowledgedthe rapidly changing landscape of transportation and mobility choices and therefore recommend havingmilestone review opportunities every 10 years to adjust plan elements to address future conditions.

Follow-up Poll

A follow-up poll was conducted in January 2018. The follow-up poll explored renewing the existingTransportation Sales Tax, testing over 750 likely voters for a November 2018 ballot measure in Mann County.

The 2018 follow-up poll confirmed that transportation issues and traffic congestion continue to be topconcerns of Mann County residents. There is great interest in transportation issues and solutions. The 2018poll results show strong support for renewing the transportation sales tax with support from likely 2018 votersat 77.9%, and after a series of critical statements were presented, 73.2%.

Next Steps

At this time, TAM is seeking additional input from TAM’s member agencies- the cities, towns and county ofMann- on the proposed Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan. Based on input from agenciesand residents from this ongoing outreach, TAM staff will write and refine a detailed Final DraftTransportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan.

In April or early May, the TAM Board will consider voting on the Final Draft Transportation Sales TaxRenewal Expenditure Plan and will decide whether to direct staff to seek approval from all 12 localjurisdictions on the Final Draft Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan.

For the Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan to be placed on the ballot for consideration byvoters in November 2018, the 75-word ballot argument and Expenditure Plan must be submitted to theRegistrar of Voters no later than August 10, 2018. The TAM Board would need to act no later than July 2018,allowing time for the Mann County Board of Supervisors to make a final decision on whether to put themeasure on the November 2018 ballot.

TAM appreciates feedback from your council.

Sincerely,

Dianne SteinhauserExecutive DirectorTransportation Authority of Mann

Attachments:Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure PlanTransportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan — FactsheetsExpenditure Plan Advisory Committee membershipJanuary 2018 Poll of likely November 2018 voters- Topline ResultsTransportation Sales Tax Renewal Process — Likely Next Steps

4

Strategy Descriptions Current % Final Proposal Annual $ Amount One time $ Amount

Strategy 1 – Reduce congestion on Highway 101 and adjacent roadways by leveraging non-local funds to accelerate completion of key multimodal projects.

7.5% 7.5%

1. Provide local matching funds to accelerate the completion of the Marin Sonoma Narrows, to reduceimpacts and enhance the facility for all users. 1.5% $ 12,405,000

2. Provide local matching funds to accelerate the completion of the 101-580 interchange directconnector, including the development of local enhancements to reduce impacts and enhance the facility forall users.

2% $ 16,540,000

3. Enhance local interchanges and freeway access routes to reduce congestion, improve local traffic flow,improve access for all modes, and address flooding impacts throughout the County. 3% $ 24,810,000

4. Implement demand management strategies to increase vehicle occupancy and reduce peak hourcongestion throughout the County. 1% $ 270,000

Strategy 2 - Maintain, improve and manage Marin County’s local transportation infrastructure, including roads, bikeways, sidewalks and pathways to create a well maintained and resilient transportation system.

26.5% 26.5%

1. Maintain and manage local roads to provide safe and well-maintained streets for all users. Projects mayinclude paving and repairs, crosswalk and curb cut enhancements, bike lane and pathway constructionincluding closing gaps in the network to enhance connectivity, bus bulbs, safe pathways to transit and majorgenerators, intersection improvements, pavement and drainage improvements, sidewalk repair as well assystem enhancements to accommodate new technologies including autonomous vehicles and otherinnovations such as signal coordination, real time information and other tools to maximize the efficiency,effectiveness and resiliency of our transportation system.

(13.25% to Local Roads by Formula,

and 13.25% to

Major Roads)

22% $ 5,940,000

2. Provide safe pathways for safe walking and biking access to schools. 3% $ 810,000

3. Develop projects and programs to address sea level rise and resiliency 1% $ 270,000

4. Support capacity enhancements of local streets and roads through innovative technology 0.5% $ 135,000

Goal: Reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County

Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Proposal to Renew the 1/2-cent Transportation Sales Tax

Dollar amounts are based on 2018/19 annual revenue projections and are for illustrative purposes only.

Page 1 5

ATTACHMENT 2

J-15

2.

Strategy Descriptions Current % Final Proposal Annual $ Amount One time $ Amount

Strategy 3 – Reduce school related congestion and provide safer access to schools 11% 11%

1. Maintain and expand the Safe Routes to Schools Education and Encouragement program. 3.3% 3.5% $ 945,000 2. Expand the crossing guard program, providing funding for up to 90 crossing guards throughout MarinCounty 4.2% 6.5% $ 1,755,000

3. Capital funding for Safe Pathways projects (3% moved to Strategy 2, 1% new category below) 3.5% 0%

4. Capital funding for small safety related projects 0% 1% $ 270,000

Strategy 4 - Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand.

55% 55%

1. Maintain and improve existing levels of bus transit service in areas that can support productive fixedroute service throughout Marin Countyi. Maintain a network of high productivity of bus service in high volume corridorsii. Expand first-and-last-mile transit services for residents and workersiii. Provide innovative services in communities that may not support traditional fixed route serviceiv. Enhance public safety through Marin Transit’s role in providing emergency mobility in the face ofnatural disaster.

37% 33% $ 8,910,000

2. Maintain and expand the rural and recreational bus services including the West Marin Stagecoach andMuir Woods shuttle system. 3% 3% $ 810,000 3. Maintain and expand transit services and programs for those with special needs – seniors, personswith disabilities and low-income residents. 9% 9.5% $ 2,565,000 4. Provide transit services to schools in Marin County to reduce local congestion.i. Provide yellow bus services in partnership with local schools and parent organizations.ii. Provide transit routes to schools where efficient and effective.

0% 5% $ 1,350,000

5. Invest in bus transit facilities for a clean and efficient transit system.i. Provide matching funds for the purchase of the green transit fleet.ii. Support the development of a renewed/relocated Bettini Bus Hub

iii. Support the development of a local bus maintenance facilityiv. Improve passenger amenities at bus stops, including real-time transit information.

6% 4% $ 1,080,000

6. Expand access to ferries and regional transit.i. Expand and maintain connecting ferry shuttle services to address first and last mile connections.ii. Expand and maintain remote parking locations and other strategies to expand regional transit accessfor Marin’s residents and commuters.iii. Expand first and last mile access to regional transit services for access to jobs in Marin County.

0% 0.5% $ 135,000

Totals (Dollar amounts are based on 2018/19 annual revenue projections and are for illustrative purposes only.) 100% 100% $ 27,000,000 $ 827,000,000

Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Proposal to Renew the 1/2-cent Transportation Sales Tax - Page 2Goal: Reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County

Page 2 6

DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

OVERVIEW SUMMARY

Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide

high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County.

The Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC) recommends a 30-year extension of the ½-cent sales tax to be placed on the ballot in November of 2018. The proposal builds on the success of the current transportation sales tax and maintains the core elements. An extension does not propose any new taxes and generates a future funding stream for major highway investments that are not currently funded, including Marin-Sonoma Narrows and the NB US-101 to EB I-580 direct connection. Future local funds can be advanced immediately to attract regional, state and federal funding. The proposal increases funding for local road improvements, senior mobility, school-related transit and yellow bus programs. The extension proposal would provide more funding for Safe Routes to Schools education, safe pathways programs and crossing guards, avoiding the need to cut 26 crossing guards in the fall of 2018. The proposal is forward thinking and provides seed funding for projects related to sea-level rise, innovative technologies and supports future mobility concepts for first/last mile solutions and peak hour demand management.

Local, Rural, Student and Special Needs Transit

Highway and Interchanges Improvements

Local Streets and Roads

Safe Routes to Schools, Education, Infrastructure and Crossing Guards

55%

26.5%

11%7.5%

7

ATTACHMENT 3 J-15 3.

DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

STRATEGY ONE: HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS

Reduce congestion on Highway 101 and adjacent roadways by leveraging non-local funds to assure completion of key multimodal projects that provide congestion relief.

1.5% Proposal ½ cent Renewal

$12.40m One time amount based on $827m

7.5% Current 7.5% Proposal ½ cent Renewal






$270,000 Annual amount based on $27m

Contribute matching funds to complete the Marin-Sonoma Narrows

Contribute matching funds to build a direct connector from NB101 to EB580

Improve Six Local Interchanges: Tiburon/East Blithedale to Lucas Valley

Reduce Peak Hour Congestion with Demand Management Programs

1

The current expenditure was dedicated to the Highway 101

Carpool Lane Gap Closure Project that was successfully

completed in 2010.

The sales tax must be renewed to create a future funding stream for these new major projects. Funds can be advanced immediately.


high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County.8

13.25% Local

13.25% Major

Current 22% Local

Proposal ½ cent Renewal

$5.94m Annual amount based on $27m







DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

STRATEGY TWO: LOCAL STREET & ROAD IMPROVEMENTS

Maintain, improve and manage Marin County’s local transportation infrastructure, including roads, bikeways, sidewalks and pathways to create a well maintained and resilient transportation system.

26.5% Current 26.5% FinalProposal ½ cent Renewal

Maintain and manage local roads to provide safe and well-maintained streets for all users

Provide safe pathways for safe walking and biking access to schools

Develop projects and programs to address sea level rise and resiliency

Support capacity enhancements of local streets and roads through innovative technology

2



All existing Major Roads Projects will receive their currently programmed level of funding.

9

DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

STRATEGY THREE: SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL

Reduce school-related congestion and provide safer access to schools. 3.3% Current 3.5% Proposal

½ cent Renewal$945,000 Annual amount

based on $27m

11% Current 11% Proposal ½ cent Renewal

Maintain and expand the Safe Routes to Schools Education and Encouragement program

4.2% Current 6.5% Proposal ½ cent Renewal


Expand the crossing guard program, provide funding for up to 90 crossing guards throughout Marin County

1% Proposal ½ cent Renewal


Capital funding for small safety-related projects

3.5% Current 0% Moved

Proposal ½ cent Renewal

Provide capital funding for Safe Pathways projects

3



Safe Routes education, Safe Pathways projects and Crossing Guards will receive more funding. Specifically, TAM will be able to avoid cutting 26 crossing guards in the fall of 2018.

[ Moved to Strategy 2: Local Street & Road Improvements]

10



DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

STRATEGY FOUR: LOCAL AND SPECIAL NEEDS TRANSIT

Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand.




Maintain and improve existing levels of bus transit service in areas that can support productive fixed route service throughout Marin County

Maintain and expand the rural and recreational bus services including the West Marin Stagecoach and Muir Woods shuttle system

Maintain and expand transit services for those with special needs – seniors, persons with disabilities and low-income residents



4

9% Current 9.5% Proposal ½ cent Renewal


Transit will receive the same level of funds it receives now. Redirection within the 55% will allow fund to be dedicated to school bus service.

11

0% Current 0.5% Proposal ½ cent Renewal






DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL

STRATEGY FOUR: [CONT.] LOCAL AND SPECIAL NEEDS TRANSIT

Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand.

Provide transit services to schools to reduce local congestion including yellow bus service

Invest in bus transit facilities, including greening the fleet, improving maintenance facilities and providing passenger amenities

Expand access to ferries and regional transit

4



high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County.12

Ref # Organization Select Individual1 COC-Northern Planning V-Anne Chernock2 COC-Central Planning Joy Dahlgren3 COC-Ross Valley Planning Paul Roye4 COC-Southern Planning Robert Burton5 COC-West Marin Planning Area Scott Tye6 COC-Major Marin Employers Peter Pelham7 COC-Environmental Organizations - MCL Kate Powers8 COC-Bicycle and Pedestrian Group Vince O'Brien9 COC-Marin County Paratransit Coordinating Council Allan Bortel

10 COC-League of Women Voters Kevin Hagerty11 COC-Taxpayer Group Paul Premo12 North Bay Leadership Council Cynthia Murray13 Chamber of Commerce Novato Coy Smith14 Chamber of Commerce San Rafael Joanne Webster15 Marin County Office of Education Ken Lippi16 Student- College of Marin Jon Horinek17 Transit Rider Lisel Blash18 Marin Mobility Consortium - Seniors Lynn Von der Werth 19 Senior Living Resident/Pedestrian Sue Beittel20 Equity/Marin City Monique Brown21 Equity/Canal Neighborhood Roberto Hernandez22 Labor Union/Building Trade Council Javier Flores23 Bay Wave Rep - Sea Level Rise - Innovation/Resiliance Bill Carney24 Safe Routes to School Representative Debbie Alley

Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Meeting Membership List

13


TRANSPORATION AUTHORITY OF MARIN

2018 Transportation Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey

Topline Report n=794 Likely November 2018 Voters 19.5-minute

January 25, 2018

www.godberesearch.com

Northern California and Corporate Offices 1575 Old Bayshore Highway, Suite 102 Burlingame, CA 94010

Nevada 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV 89521

Pacific Northwest 601 108th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004

14


http://www.godberesearch.com/

Godbe Research

TAM - 2018 Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey

METHODOLOGY

Sample Universe:

- 124,947 Likely November 2018 Voters

Sample Size:

n=794 Registered Voters

Data Collection Methodology:

n=120 Landline

n=77 Cell Phone

n=269 Online from email invitation

n=328 Online from text invitation

Marin of Error:

- Registered Voters + 3.47%

Interview Dates: January 17 to January 23, 2018

QUALITY OF LIFE & SATISFACTION WITH TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS

Column N % Count∑ or

Mean

Very satisfied 55.6% 442

Somewhat satisfied 34.7% 275

Somewhat dissatisfied 6.3% 50

Very dissatisfied 3.1% 25

DK/NA 0.3% 2

Total Satisfied 90.3% 717

Total Dissatisfied 9.4% 75

Ratio Sat to Dissat 9.6

Very satisfied 11.9% 94

Somewhat satisfied 35.8% 284

Somewhat dissatisfied 29.1% 231

Very dissatisfied 16.5% 131

DK/NA 6.7% 53

Total Satisfied 47.7% 378

Total Dissatisfied 45.7% 363

Ratio Sat to Dissat 1.0

Total

1. Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the

overall quality of life in Marin County?

2. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the transportation

options, facilities and services in Marin County?

Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 115

Godbe Research


INITIAL BALLOT TEST


Mean

Definitely Yes 47.5% 377

Probably Yes 30.4% 241

Probably No 6.9% 55

Definitely No 12.3% 98

DK/NA 2.9% 23

Total Yes 77.9% 618

Total No 19.2% 152

Total

3. In order to:

• relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads;

• fix potholes and maintain local roads;

• improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101;

• expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service,

relieving local congestion; and,

• provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons

with disabilities;

shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved

sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25

million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens’ oversight, that

the State cannot take away?


Godbe Research


FEATURES OF THE MEASURE


Mean

Much more likely 54.9% 436 80.2%

Somewhat more likely 25.3% 201

No effect 12.1% 96

Somewhat less likely 3.2% 25

Much less likely 3.5% 28

DK/NA 1.0% 8



No effect 15.5% 123



DK/NA 0.4% 3



No effect 20.8% 165



DK/NA 1.4% 11



No effect 21.2% 169



DK/NA 0.7% 5



No effect 22.4% 178



DK/NA 0.6% 4



No effect 15.1% 120



DK/NA 0.3% 2



No effect 15.0% 119



DK/NA 2.2% 18

Q4A. Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads

Q4B. Fix potholes and maintain local roads

Q4C. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway

101

Q4D. Expand safe routes to schools, including school bus

service, relieving local congestion

Total

Q4E. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and

persons with disabilities

Q4F. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better

timing of signals

Q4G. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from

Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge


Godbe Research



Mean



No effect 25.0% 199



DK/NA 1.2% 10



No effect 25.6% 204



DK/NA 1.4% 11



No effect 22.0% 175



DK/NA 0.4% 4



No effect 23.9% 190



DK/NA 0.6% 5



No effect 21.8% 173



DK/NA 0.8% 6



No effect 30.6% 243



DK/NA 0.5% 4



No effect 17.2% 136



DK/NA 0.8% 6

Total

Q4J. Provide more local bus service to relieve traffic congestion

Q4K. Support door-to-door transit services for seniors and

people with disabilities such as Whistlestop Wheels

Q4L. Provide matching funds to complete highway carpool lanes

and multi-use pathway improvements through the Marin Sonoma

Narrows

Q4M. Maintain and expand school crossing guards and the Safe

Routes to Schools and Pathways programs

Q4N. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea

level rise

Q4H. Fill in critical gaps in pedestrian pathways

Q4I. Fill in critical gaps in bike paths


Godbe Research



Mean



No effect 27.2% 216



DK/NA 0.7% 5



No effect 17.3% 138



DK/NA 2.1% 16

FEATURES OF THE MEASURE -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE


Mean

Q4A. Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads 1.26

Q4B. Fix potholes and maintain local roads 1.22

Q4F. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better

timing of signals1.13

Q4G. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from

Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge1.03

Q4P. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic

congestion1.00

Q4C. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway

1010.97

Q4N. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea

level rise0.90

Q4E. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and

persons with disabilities0.89

Q4D. Expand safe routes to schools, including school bus

service, relieving local congestion0.81

Q4K. Support door-to-door transit services for seniors and

people with disabilities such as Whistlestop Wheels0.80

Q4J. Provide more local bus service to relieve traffic congestion 0.79

Q4L. Provide matching funds to complete highway carpool lanes

and multi-use pathway improvements through the Marin Sonoma

Narrows

0.73

Q4H. Fill in critical gaps in pedestrian pathways 0.58

Q4M. Maintain and expand school crossing guards and the Safe

Routes to Schools and Pathways programs0.54

Q4O. Increase incentives to use electric vehicles including

providing electric vehicle charging facilities0.39

Q4I. Fill in critical gaps in bike paths 0.33

Total

Total

Q4O. Increase incentives to use electric vehicles including

providing electric vehicle charging facilities

Q4P. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic

congestion


Godbe Research


INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS


Mean

Much more likely to vote yes 41.2% 327 71.9%

Somewhat more likely to vote yes 30.7% 244

No effect 26.4% 210

DK/NA 1.7% 14



No effect 23.1% 183

DK/NA 2.5% 20



No effect 23.4% 186

DK/NA 2.1% 17



No effect 21.3% 169

DK/NA 2.4% 19



No effect 31.6% 251

DK/NA 1.7% 14



No effect 29.6% 235

DK/NA 2.8% 22



No effect 30.5% 243

DK/NA 1.9% 15



No effect 27.5% 218

DK/NA 2.2% 18



No effect 25.7% 204

DK/NA 1.7% 13



No effect 23.4% 186

DK/NA 2.3% 18



No effect 28.3% 225

DK/NA 3.9% 31

Total

Q5A. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure

will help stop the deterioration and make repairs

Q5B. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of

dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without approval

of the measure, that money will go to other counties

Q5H. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on

roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency response

times

Q5I. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local

streets and roads

Q5J. The measure will help make connections to regional transit

like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit

Q5K. The proposed regional and State efforts do not cover all the

Marin County needs, but this measure will ensure that Marin gets

its fair share of State and regional funds

Q5C. Every penny from this measure will benefit local

transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by

the State

Q5D. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway

101

Q5E. The measure will make it safer to drive, bike on and walk

along local streets, and help relieve greenhouse gases and air

pollution

Q5F. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent

citizens' oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money

will be spent as promised

Q5G. The measure will preserve and expand bus service to help

relieve traffic congestion


Godbe Research



Mean



No effect 24.1% 191

DK/NA 2.9% 23



No effect 26.1% 207

DK/NA 3.3% 27



No effect 30.9% 246

DK/NA 4.0% 32



No effect 50.5% 401

DK/NA 4.5% 36

Total

Q5L. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation

needs, but does not increase taxes

Q5M. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or

government employee pension relief

Q5N. The measure will prevent substantial cuts in local transit

programs

Q5O. The measure will prevent substantial cuts to crossing

guard programs


Godbe Research


INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE


Mean

Q5D. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway

1011.33

Q5C. Every penny from this measure will benefit local

transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by

the State

1.32

Q5L. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation

needs, but does not increase taxes1.30

Q5B. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of

dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without approval

of the measure, that money will go to other counties

1.29

Q5M. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or

government employee pension relief1.26

Q5J. The measure will help make connections to regional transit

like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit1.25

Q5I. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local

streets and roads1.19

Q5A. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure

will help stop the deterioration and make repairs1.15

Q5H. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on

roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency response

times

1.14

Q5F. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent

citizens' oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money

will be spent as promised

1.11

Q5K. The proposed regional and State efforts do not cover all the

Marin County needs, but this measure will ensure that Marin gets

its fair share of State and regional funds

1.11

Q5E. The measure will make it safer to drive, bike on and walk

along local streets, and help relieve greenhouse gases and air

pollution

1.08

Q5G. The measure will preserve and expand bus service to help

relieve traffic congestion1.07

Q5N. The measure will prevent substantial cuts in local transit

programs1.04

Q5O. The measure will prevent substantial cuts to crossing

guard programs0.70

Total


Godbe Research


CRITICAL STATEMENTS


Mean

Much more likely to vote no 25.8% 205 41.5%

Somewhat more likely to vote no 15.7% 124

No effect 53.7% 426

DK/NA 4.8% 38



No effect 40.6% 323

DK/NA 3.4% 27



No effect 41.6% 330

DK/NA 6.4% 51



No effect 44.7% 355

DK/NA 4.9% 39



No effect 51.2% 407

DK/NA 4.6% 36



No effect 53.4% 424

DK/NA 3.5% 28



No effect 51.9% 412

DK/NA 6.8% 54



No effect 46.8% 371

DK/NA 5.4% 42



No effect 63.4% 504

DK/NA 7.4% 59

Total

Q6A. Marin County has asked taxpayers to approve sales tax

measures for transportation, the SMART rail system and county

parks. Enough is enough, we can't afford another tax increase

Q6B. The State is increasing gas taxes and vehicle registration

fees, and the Bay Area regional government wants to increase

bridge tolls. Instead of asking for more taxes, the State and

County need to cut waste and do a better job with taxpayer

money

Q6H. With high State and local taxes no longer being deductible

under new federal tax law, we can't afford another local tax

extension

Q6I. Other proposed ballot measures are more important

including sales tax increases for early childhood education and

parks and open space

Q6C. Since 2005 TAM has spent $250 million dollars, but traffic is

even worse than before. Now they want to renew their special

tax 6 years before it expires. We should not give them more

taxpayer money to waste

Q6D. If government agencies managed their budgets more

efficiently and reformed out of control pension and benefit

programs, we would not have to pay more in taxes

Q6E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation,

hurting low income and senior citizens the most

Q6F. This sales tax measure will result in Marin County having

one of the highest sales tax rates in the state, and sales taxes

rob consumers of purchasing power, ultimately costing jobs.

People will go elsewhere to buy goods and services

Q6G. The measure is growth inducing and will increase the

pressure exerted by the State for more subsidized low-income

high density housing to be placed in small Marin neighborhoods


Godbe Research


CRITICAL STATEMENTS -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE


Mean

Q6B. The State is increasing gas taxes and vehicle registration

fees, and the Bay Area regional government wants to increase

bridge tolls. Instead of asking for more taxes, the State and

County need to cut waste and do a better job with taxpayer

money

0.91

Q6C. Since 2005 TAM has spent $250 million dollars, but traffic is

even worse than before. Now they want to renew their special

tax 6 years before it expires. We should not give them more

taxpayer money to waste

0.87

Q6D. If government agencies managed their budgets more

efficiently and reformed out of control pension and benefit

programs, we would not have to pay more in taxes

0.83

Q6H. With high State and local taxes no longer being deductible

under new federal tax law, we can't afford another local tax

extension

0.78

Q6A. Marin County has asked taxpayers to approve sales tax

measures for transportation, the SMART rail system and county

parks. Enough is enough, we can't afford another tax increase

0.71

Q6G. The measure is growth inducing and will increase the

pressure exerted by the State for more subsidized low-income

high density housing to be placed in small Marin neighborhoods

0.70

Q6E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation,

hurting low income and senior citizens the most0.69

Q6F. This sales tax measure will result in Marin County having

one of the highest sales tax rates in the state, and sales taxes

rob consumers of purchasing power, ultimately costing jobs.

People will go elsewhere to buy goods and services

0.68

Q6I. Other proposed ballot measures are more important

including sales tax increases for early childhood education and

parks and open space

0.43

Total


Godbe Research


FINAL BALLOT TEST


Mean

Definitely Yes 39.7% 315

Probably Yes 33.5% 266

Probably No 7.3% 58

Definitely No 14.3% 114

DK/NA 5.2% 41

Total Yes 73.2% 581

Total No 21.6% 172

Total

7. In order to:

• relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads;

• fix potholes and maintain local roads;

• improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101;

• expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service,

relieving local congestion; and,

• provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons

with disabilities;

shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved

sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25

million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens’ oversight, that

the State cannot take away?


Godbe Research


DEMOGRAPHICS


Mean

Bike 2.5% 20

Carpool or vanpool 4.6% 36

Drive car or truck alone 59.2% 470

Drive motorcycle or scooter 0.7% 5

Public transit (bus, rail or shuttle) 7.6% 60

Walk 2.4% 19

Work from home/Don't work

outside the home14.9% 119

Other (SPECIFY) 6.7% 53

DK/NA 1.4% 11

Yes 26.9% 214

No 72.8% 578

DK/NA 0.3% 3

Male 44.7% 355

Female 53.9% 428

Other 1.4% 11

18-29 6.8% 54

30-39 7.8% 62

40-49 14.9% 118

50-64 32.9% 261

65+ 37.7% 299

Not coded 0.0% 0

Japanese 0.2% 2

Chinese 0.7% 6

Hispanic 3.6% 29

Jewish 5.0% 40

Armenian 0.1% 1

Vietnamese 0.5% 4

Italian 4.4% 35

Korean 0.0% 0

African American 0.0% 0

Not Coded 85.4% 678

Owner 68.1% 541

Renter 31.9% 253

Democrat 58.8% 467

Republican 17.8% 141

Other 3.4% 27

DTS 20.0% 159

Total

D. Age

E. Ethnic Surname

F. Homeownership Status

G. Party

A. What type of transportation do you typically use to go to work

or school?

B. Do any children under the age of 18 live in your household?

C. Respondent's Gender


Godbe Research



Mean

Dem 1 31.5% 250

Dem 2+ 18.4% 146

Rep 1 6.8% 54

Rep 2+ 5.9% 47

Other 1 11.1% 88

Other 2+ 5.2% 41

Dem & Rep 4.8% 38

Dem & Other 10.7% 85

Rep & Other 4.2% 33

Dem, Rep & Other 1.5% 12

2017 to 2018 0.0% 0

2013 to 2016 34.9% 277

2009 to 2012 12.9% 102

2005 to 2008 16.8% 133

2001 to 2004 8.6% 68

1997 to 2000 6.6% 52

1993 to 1996 4.5% 36

1981 to 1992 9.1% 72

1980 or before 6.8% 54

Not Coded 0.0% 0

1 6.6% 53

2 4.6% 36

3 4.7% 37

4 6.0% 47

5 4.9% 39

6 3.8% 30

7 4.3% 34

8 4.1% 32

9 5.7% 45

10 4.8% 38

11 6.2% 49

12 6.5% 51

13 6.5% 52

14 7.1% 56

15 9.5% 75

16 14.8% 118

J. Voting History see detailed crosstabs

Total

I. Registration Date

K. Times Voted in Last Elections

H. Household Party Type


Godbe Research



Mean

0 21.0% 166

1 11.6% 92

2 7.2% 57

3 5.9% 47

4 4.9% 39

5 3.2% 25

6 3.7% 30

7 2.8% 22

8 4.5% 36

9 2.5% 20

10 3.3% 27

11 3.0% 24

12 3.4% 27

13 3.4% 27

14 5.8% 46

15 7.0% 56

16 6.8% 54

Yes 73.8% 586

No 26.2% 208

Yes 74.3% 590

No 25.7% 204

Yes 100.0% 794

No 0.0% 0

District 1 20.9% 166





Belvedere 0.4% 3

Corte Madera 5.2% 41

Fairfax 3.9% 31

Larkspur 4.7% 37

Mill Valley 5.8% 46

Novato 18.4% 146

Ross 1.1% 9

San Anselmo 3.9% 31

San Rafael 21.6% 171

Sausalito 3.5% 27

Tiburon 4.2% 33

Unincorporated 27.5% 218

Land 15.0% 119

Cell 10.4% 82

Online 32.5% 258

Text 42.2% 335

Total

O. Likely November 2018 Voter

P. Supervisorial District

Q. City

R. Interview Type

L. Absentee Voter

M. Permanent Absentee Voter

N. Likely Absentee Voter


SCHEDULE OF LIKELY STEPS- February 2018

Topic Target Dates Complete 2017

1. Introduction and Initial Feedback from Local Jurisdictions Feb - Apr

2. Baseline Polling - TAM Board approval of polling effort Feb

3. TAM Ad Hoc Committee guides poll - poll conducted Mar - Apr

4. TAM Board considers initial input from Local Jurisdictions and Polling anddetermines whether to proceed to next step of forming an Expenditure PlanAdvisory Committee (Go/No Go)

Apr - May

5. TAM Board establishes membership of Advisory Committee Apr - May

6. Kickoff of Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Process June

7. Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee meets to develop options for renewingtransportation sales tax, for increasing transportation sales tax, or both

June - Dec

8. Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee engages in public outreach June - Dec

9. TAM Board reviews activity of Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee anddetermines whether to proceed to next step of briefing stakeholders and localcouncils on status and conducting a public opinion poll of draft ExpenditurePlan Elements (Go/ No Go)

Dec 11

2018

10. TAM Ad Hoc Committee guides poll and the poll is conducted

11. TAM briefs stakeholders and local jurisdiction councils on status ofExpenditure Plan development – seeks and receives input

Feb

Feb - Mar

12. TAM Board considers input from stakeholders, local jurisdictions and pollingresults, and votes on Final Draft Sales Tax Expenditure Plan (Go/No Go)

13. TAM Board directs staff to seek approval from all 12 local jurisdictions onFinal Draft Sales Tax Expenditure Plan

14. Final approval by TAM to request the Board of Supervisors to put thetransportation sales tax renewal on the November 2018 ballot. Board ofSupervisors approves.

15. Expenditure plan and ballot argument (75 words) deadline for submission toregistrar for November 2018 ballot.

April

May - July

July

August 10

29


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