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Ferrara, 8 May 2009 Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008 Emanuela Salerno, Mediobanca Research Department

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Ferrara, 8 May 2009

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-EastItaly, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Emanuela Salerno, Mediobanca Research Department

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

2

In 2006

1,625 medium-sized

companies (1,564

including groups)

Vicenza, Treviso,

Modena, Padova,

Bologna: Five

provinces account for

54% of value added

by MSEs in North-East

Italy

Medium-sized companies in North-East Italy in 2006

Source: Unioncamere Research Centre

3

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Growth in North-East ItalyNet changes, 1998-2006: 335 more companies

Ferrara:

1998 232006 25Chg. +2

4

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

What they do in North-East ItalyValue added in €m, 1996-2006 - universe

3,075 2,707

640 1,202 345 366 220

2,863

926

707 535 272

173 41

Mechanical engineering

Personal and household

goods

Chemicals Food and drink

Paper and printing

Metallurgy Others

Change, 1996-2006 In 1996

Ferrara:Mechanical engineering 51.9%

Chemicals 26.0%

Personal and household goods 8.9%

Food and drink 6.3%

Metallurgy 5.5%

Paper and printing 1.4%

MADE IN ITALY 57.4%

“Made in Italy” 68%

5

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Medium-sized companies in North-East Italy: geographicalconcentrationBase value added, 2006

IDs and LPSs (MB-UC classification) Provincial areas

6

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

MSEs in North-East Italy in districts and LPSs: winnersGrowth 1998-2006 – universe (IDs/LPSs more than 15 companies)

7

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Growth in VA from 1997 to 2006% chg. – manufacturing, closed group, current prices

Medium-sized enterprises in North-East Italy +49.0

Friuli-Venezia Giulia

Emilia-Romagna

Veneto

Trentino-Alto Adige

Ferrara

+56.0

+52.0

+47.0

+36.3

+14.5

Italian manufacturing industry +13.0

8

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Medium-sized companies: turnover and value addedIndex 1997=100, closed set – MB estimates for 2007

9

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Medium-sized companies: staff and operating marginsIndex 1997=100, closed set- MB estimates for 2007

10

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Medium-sized companies: exports , 1997-2008 Index 1997=100, closed sets - MB estimates for 2007 and 2008

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

11

Medium-sized in North-East Italy and large firms: from1997 to 2007Index 1997=100, closed sets - MB and MB-UC data - MB estimates for 2007

105.7109.6

123.6129.2

133.7137.2 144.9

149.7

164.8174.1

100.0

106.8 112.3

122.4 124.4130.4 131.5

136.9140.7

151.2

160.6

89.1

81.1

89.1 92.190.8

101.4

113.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

MSEs, NE Italy - Turnover MSEs, NE Italy - Value added

Large groups -Consolidated global turnover Large groups - Value added in Italy

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

12

Competitiveness: data per employee€’000 in 2006 – MSE universe - R&S data for manufacturing MNEs

LC / VA=72.4%

margin=

14.5

LC / VA =70.1%

margin =

19.1

LC / VA =69.8%

margin=

18.1

LC / VA =67.4%

margin=

25.1

13

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Net per capita value added at 1997 pricesClosed sets, 1997-2001 and 2001-2006 (2/3 of IMs)

Expansion

Transformation Expansion

14

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Net per capita value added at 1997 pricesClosed sets, 1997-2001 and 2001-2006 (2/3 of IMs)

Expansion

TransformationExpansion

15

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

Medium-sized companies in NE Italy: are they profitable?Difference between ROE and risk-free rate - universe

Avg. difference = 7.6 points (7.2 points MSEs, all

Italy)

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

16

Financial structure% of tangible invested capital – universe data, 2006

-34.5 -35.0 -31.5 -25.2 -19.3 -21.5

-22.3 -22.0 -19.3 -23.6 -39.9 -39.7

-43.2 -43.0 -49.2 -51.2 -40.8 -38.8

63.964.5 85.8

44.8 43.8 38.8

36.1 35.514.2

55.2 56.2 61.2

Fixed assets Current assets Net capital M/l term debt Short-term debt

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

17

Financial solidity in North-East Italy, 2006Data, MB-UC universe

NTC = Net tangible capital

B = BorrowingsNTC/ cap. inv.

NTC / net fixedassets

B (short-term) / net working

capital

Average ratio 43.0% 121.1% 54.3%

No. Of companies:

With ratio > 90% 201 861 300

From 75% to 90% 142 90 173

From 50% to 75% 293 160 323

From 25% to 50% 452 155 283

< 25% 476 298 485

Total companies 1,564 1,564 1,564

Share, 2 strongest categories 61% 49%

Share, 2 weakest categories 29% 30%

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

18

Independent

39.7%

Default

8.2%

Bought by

Italian groups

35.6%

Bought by

non-Italian groups

16.5%

Independent38.2%

Default

7.7%

Bought by Italian groups

37.5%

Bought by non-Italian

groups16.6%

Medium-sized companies that have become largeenterprises: where are they now?

NE Italy - 219 companies Italy - 507 companies

Annual average default rate in NE Italy:

1%

Annual average default rate in Italy:

1%

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

19

Solidity confirmed% of companies in 2006 - R&S-Unioncamere credit scoring model

Medium-sized industrial companies in North-East

Italy, 1997-2006 and 2007-2008

20

Medium-size companies, Ferrara - % data

Value added division: Ferrara NE Italy

Mechanical engineering 51.9 42.2

Chemicals 26.0 9.6

Personal and household goods 8.9 25.8

Other sectors 13.2 22.4

TOTAL 100.0 100.0

NOM/VA 25.5 23.5

Debt/invested capital 47.3 53.7

Exports (as % of sales) 41.4 36.3

Mediobanca Research Department

Piazzetta M. Bossi 1, Milan, Italy

Website: www.mbres.it