measuring gdp in a digitalised economy
TRANSCRIPT
Jennifer Ribarsky Head of Sectoral National Accounts Section Statistics Directorate
OECD Global Forum on Productivity
14 October 2016, London
MEASURING GDP
IN A DIGITALISED ECONOMY
Background
2
Increased prevalence of ‘new’ transformative (digital) technologies
But….
…. Declining productivity
Market capitalisation of AirBnB (£ Billions)
Trend labour productivity growth
Is it a mis-measurement problem?
Charlie Bean: “statistics have failed to keep pace with the impact of digital technology”
The internet and the productivity slump
The U.S. Underestimates Growth
Charles Hulten: Valuing the Net and the wide range of applications… is challenging…. and their omission or undervaluation surely affects GDP.”
Diane Coyle: The pace of change in OECD countries is making the existing statistical framework decreasingly appropriate for measuring the economy
Why we’re
measuring the
digital economy
in the wrong
way
Some optimists argue instead that the problem is one of measurement. Technological progress often raises productivity in ways that statistical agencies struggle to detect
• Based on an OECD working paper on Measuring GDP in a digitalised economy (N. Ahmad, P. Schreyer)
– Issues and challenges of digitalisation
• Aim: Take stock of current and best practices of OECD countries and key partners
– 29 country responses (as of 1/10/2016)
Survey of country practices
Digital intermediaries
Digital intermediaries
For C2C
Dwelling services, Business & Transport, Finance
Conclusions:
Conceptual framework sufficiently robust
Estimation methods may need to be adjusted
• A few countries capture digital rentals of dwelling services- mainly through tax records
• More countries appear to capture Business and transport services- mainly from tax records and labour force surveys
• Almost no country has estimates on financial intermediation services
Consumer durables and investment
Household durables used in production
Rise of the ‘occasionally’ self-employed:
And use of durables in production
Not a new phenomena and no impact on GDP
Although MFP will be affected
• But may be a need for more detailed guidance on delineation
• A few countries make this distinction based on car registration, surveys, private market research, assumptions
Knowledge based capital and
globalisation
‘Investment’ outside of the SNA asset boundary and cross-border flows
Many ‘intangible’ assets already in the SNA but many are not:
Human capital,
Knowledge in databases,
Organisational capital ,
Brands
And for those assets in the boundary, difficulties with cross-border transactions remain
Not a new phenomena
Considered in the 2008 SNA revision process but ruled out on practical grounds.
Guidance developed in various Task Forces but further work may be needed as the scale of the problem remains unknown
Prices and volumes
A significant challenge
Customisation
Outlet bias
Quality change
Not a new phenomena but challenges remain
Price indices for software investment
• Majority treat as change in price, price differences in distribution margins occurring from buying products provided on-line versus in a store.
• Only one country takes into account changes in quality (such as self-service checkouts at super markets) due to the increased participation of consumers in the production process.
• Some countries are currently using or exploring new data sources, such as those that can be captured via web-scraping, to help deal with rapid quality changes and the emergence of new products as a consequence of digitalization.
Prices
• For own account software, many countries use some variation of an input method or use a services producer price index (SPPI)
• For R&D, countries use an index of wage and salary earnings or in many cases taking into account all input costs (aka. Input method) • Input method does not capture quality or productivity
changes (unless an explicit adjustment is made)
Software and R&D prices
• That the conceptual framework is robust
• But measurement in some areas may require improvement and new approaches for
– The occasionally self-employed
– International transactions in IPPs
– And Prices
• Whilst also recognising that complementary statistics to bridge gaps between consumer surplus and GDP may be necessary (satellite accounts)
Conclusions:
Thank you