measuring consumer sentiments · 3.14 x axis 6.65 base margin 5.95 top margin 4.52 chart top 11.90...
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Measuring
Consumer
Sentiments
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Video Clip
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What Is Consumer Confidence/Sentiment?
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Consumer Sentiment
Oxford dictionary does not contain the term – `Consumer
Sentiment’
`Cambridge Dictionary’ directs you to Cambridge Business
Dictionary which defines consumer confidence as `the degree to
which people feel confident about how well the economy is doing ,
which influences how much money they are willing to spend’
5
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Consumer Sentiment
According to Wikipedia…there isn't a difference between consumer
confidence and consumer sentiment. Both terms are used to refer to the
degree of confidence consumers feel about the overall economy and their
personal financial state.
Consumer confidence or sentiment dictates the level of spending that
consumers will engage in.
A high level of consumer confidence means that consumers, generally feel
good about their financial condition, especially their ability to obtain and
keep jobs. If consumer confidence is relatively high, then consumers are
going to increase the amount of money that they spend. On the other hand,
if consumer confidence is relatively low, then consumers are going to spend
less
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How is consumer confidence/sentiment measured?
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Consumer Confidence Indexes Are Popular Across The World
US
US consumer confidence index since 1967
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
Canada
Conference board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence since 1980
Ireland
KBC Bank Ireland and Economic and social research institute - consumer sentiment index since 1996
Indonesia
Bank of Indonesia consumer confidence index since 1999
Consumer confidence index = Current economic condition index + Consumer expectation index
Countries such as US, Canada, Ireland, Indonesia and India have their own
consumer confidence index
India
Nielsen consumer confidence index
Reserve Bank of India consumer confidence index
Blufin India consumer confidence index
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Nielsen consumer confidence Index
Consumer Sentiment/Confidence In India
RBI consumer confidence Index
BluFin India consumer confidence index
Consumer confidence index (CCI) is Nielsen’s pulse of the world’s consumer sentiment, measuring consumer perception of job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions in 60 countries
Nielsen’s Global survey of confidence uses consumer sentiments to measure confidence around the world thereby uncovering typical consumer behavior during economic ups and downs
RBI initiated quarterly consumer confidence survey since June 2010
Done in 6 metropolitan cities with 5400 respondents
Survey captures views on economic conditions, household circumstances, price level, real estate prices and the growth potential of India economy
Developed by team of financial economists and statisticians led by Dr. Sam Thomas
Index is computed from the monthly survey of 4000 consumers in 18 cities across India
The index below 50 reflects pessimism and above 50 optimism
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RBI Consumer Confidence Index
Introduction
RBI initiated quarterly consumer confidence survey since June 2010
RBI calculates CCI for current as well as future situation
Six Metropolitan cities are covered:
Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Mumbai New Delhi
Each City is divided into 3 major areas and each major area is divided into 3 sub areas
From each sub area 100 respondents are selected randomly
For each round 5400 respondents are selected(900 respondent per city)
Survey schedule consists of qualitative questions pertaining to impression about: Economic condition Views on household
circumstances Perception on price
level Development in real
estate prices Views on growth
potential of Indian economy
Respondents generally have three reply options – up/same/down
The survey results are generally converted into net responses
Net responses = Positive perception(%) – Negative Perception(%)
Overall index = Average (100 + Net Response of selected factors)
Sampling Questionnaire Methodology 1 2 3 4
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RBI Consumer Confidence Index - Trend
119 121 120
119 120
116 115
105
102
104
110
91
100
115
123 123
117
112
116 115
116 115
107
106 106
102 102
88
91
99 100
105
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RBI Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation RBI Consumer Confidence Index Current Situation
Correlation between RBI
indexes
0.71
11
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Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index - Trend
120
117
92
93
129 131 131
126
121 122
123
119 119 121
120 118
112
115
121
128 126
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
12
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Is There A Relation Between Nielsen CCI And RBI CCI?
131 131
126
121 122 123
119 119 121 120
118
112
115
121
128 126
117
112
116 115
116 115
107
106 106
102 102
88 91
99 100
105
119 121 120 119 120
116 115
105 102
104
110
91
100
115
123 123
80
100
120
140
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nielsen CCI RBI Current CCI RBI Future CCI
Correlation between RBI
indexes
Correlation between Nielsen and RBI
Current CCI
Correlation between Nielsen and RBI
Future CCI
0.71 0.67 0.81
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Do These Indices Reflect Reality ?
The Negative News During 2010 First Half…
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Terrorist Strike At German Bakery Pune
16
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Stampede At The Pratapgarh Temple
17
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Somali Pirates Hijacked Indian Ships
18
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Dantewada Ambush
19
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Ajmal Kasab Sentenced To Death
20
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Gyaneshwari Express Derailment
21
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Heavy Rains Kill People In Maharashtra
22
The Positive News During 2010 First Half…
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Russia Signs Nuclear Reactor Deal With India
24
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Right To Education Act
25
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120
117
92
93
129 131 131
126
121 122
123
119 119 121
120 118
112
115
121
128 126
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The index improved sharply in the second half of 2010
26
The Positive News During 2010 Second Half…
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World’s Cheapest Laptop Launched
28
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Commonwealth Games 2010
29
The Negative News During 2010 Second Half…
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Nationwide Strike Due To Rise In Fuel Prices
31
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Ferry Capsizes In Muri Ganga
32
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Agni II Fails
33
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Onion Prices Rise
34
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119
121 120 119
120
116 115
105
102
104
110
91
100
115
123 123
117
112
116 115
116 115
107
106 106
102 102
88
91
99 100
105
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RBI Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation RBI Consumer Confidence Index Current Situation
The Indices Remained Stable Despite…
Correlation between RBI
indexes
0.71
35
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… the full year of Anna Movement
36
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RBI consumer confidence index - Trend
119
121 120 119
120
116 115
105
102
104
110
91
100
115
123 123
117
112
116 115
116 115
107
106 106
102 102
88
91
99 100
105
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RBI Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation RBI Consumer Confidence Index Current Situation
The Indices Declined During 2012…
Correlation between RBI
indexes
0.71
37
The Negative News During 2012…
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122 Telecom Licenses Cancelled
39
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Italian Marines Kill Indian Fishermen
40
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Aadarsh Housing Scam Chargesheet
41
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India Lost To Australia 4-0
42
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And The Unspeakable Horror Of Nirbhaya…
43
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RBI consumer confidence index - Trend
119
121 120 119
120
116 115
105
102
104
110
91
100
115
123 123
117
112
116 115
116 115
107
106 106
102 102
88
91
99 100
105
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RBI Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation RBI Consumer Confidence Index Current Situation
The Lowest Point Of The Indices Was Q3 2013
Correlation between RBI
indexes
0.71
44
The Negative News During 2013 Q3…
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Rupee – All Time Low
46
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Lalu Yadav Convicted
47
The positive news during 2013 Q3…
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Raghuram Rajan Takes Over
49
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Narendra Modi Declared PM Candidate
50
Do They Have A Relationship With Automotive Sales ?
Automotive Sales Trend Over Last Years
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Quarter Wise Passenger Vehicle Sales
467 484
582 560
617 628
715
602 593 602
821
661
618
680
727
607 594 627
676
615
657
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
53
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Quarter Wise 2W Sales
2334 2309
2592 2688
2938 3065 3099
3188
3403 3424 3421 3520
3259
3598 3422 3491 3526
3920 3868 3969
4330
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
54
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Quarter Wise MHCV Sales
46
51
74
57
70
61
87
64
74
70
91
53
62
49
58
43 40
33
46
41
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
55
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Current Consumer Confidence Index And Passenger Vehicle Sales?
628 715
602 593 602
821
661
618
680
727
607
594 627
676
615
657
117 112
116 115
116
115 107 106 106 102 102
88 91
99 100 105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Passenger Vehicle Sales RBI Current CCI
Correlation of Passenger Vehicle with RBI Current CCI
no lag 0.16
1 Qtr lag 0.22
2 Qtr lag 0.06
56
3.14 X AXIS
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Future Consumer Confidence Index And Passenger Vehicle Sales?
628
715
602 593 602
821
661
618
680
727
607
594 627
676
615
657
119 121
120 119
120
116
115
105
102 104
110
91
100
115
123 123
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Passenger Vehicle Sales RBI Future CCI
Correlation of Passenger Vehicle with RBI Future CCI
no lag 0.06
1 Qtr lag 0.03
2 Qtr lag 0.03
57
3.14 X AXIS
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Current Consumer Confidence Index And 2W Sales?
3065
3099
3188
3403 3424 3421
3520
3259
3598
3422
3491
3526
3920 3868 3969
4330 117
112
116 115
116
115 107 106 106 102 102
88 91
99 100 105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2W Sales RBI Current CCI
Correlation of 2W with RBI Current CCI
no lag -0.55
1 Qtr lag -0.70
2 Qtr lag -0.76
60
3.14 X AXIS
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Future Consumer Confidence Index And 2W Sales?
3065 3099 3188
3403 3424 3421 3520
3259
3598 3422
3491
3526 3920 3868
3969
4330 119 121
120 119
120
116
115
105
102 104
110
91
100
115
123 123
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2W Sales RBI Future CCI
Correlation of MHCV with RBI Future CCI
no lag 0.01
1 Qtr lag -0.25
2 Qtr lag -0.39
61
3.14 X AXIS
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Current Consumer Confidence Index And MHCV Sales?
61
87
64
74
70
91
53
62
49
58
43
40
33
46
41
45
117 112
116 115
116
115 107 106 106 102 102
88 91
99 100 105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MHCV Sales RBI Current CCI
Correlation of MHCV with RBI Current CCI
no lag 0.79
1 Qtr lag 0.83
2 Qtr lag 0.69
58
3.14 X AXIS
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Is There A Relation Between RBI Future Consumer Confidence Index And MHCV Sales?
61
87
64
74
70
91
53
62
49
58
43
40
33
46
41
45
119 121
120 119
120
116
115
105
102 104
110
91
100
115
123 123
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MHCV Sales RBI Future CCI
Correlation of MHCV with RBI Future CCI
no lag 0.43
1 Qtr lag 0.62
2 Qtr lag 0.61
59
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6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS
So, What Do We See…
What could be the reasons ?
However it seems to have a co-relation with Heavy Commercial Vehicle (Cargo) Sales.
The consumer confidence index does not seem to have a co-relation with Passenger Vehicle Sales, which have shown an erratic behaviour in the recent past
It also does not have a co-relation with two wheeler sales, which have been growing, whatever may be the index.
62
Does Auto Industry behave differently?
Are we making a simple situation complex?
Are we looking at data that is not relevant ?
Let Me Share A Little Story…
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE
© TNS
Champs-Elysees, Paris
65
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
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11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS 66
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE
© TNS
Should the Passenger Vehicle and Two Wheeler
category devise their own process to measure consumer sentiment ?
67
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS
Automobile Category Is Different…
The number of product segments are limited
Retail is fully organized The
purchase is not impulsive
The buyer and intender can be easily distinguished
There is a time lag between enquiry and purchase
68
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS
Measure the footfalls at the dealerships in a scientific
manner, consistently and co-relate it with sales. Over
a period of time predictive ability will get developed.
69
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS
How To Do This…
Divide India into:
Geographic Zones
Urban / Rural
Urban by Town classes
Select a sample of towns/ villages
that represent “India for you”
In case of multiple dealership
towns, pick a sample of dealerships
70
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
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© TNS
…and if you need professional help consult your friendly neighbourhood
MR partner…
71
3.14 X AXIS
6.65 BASE MARGIN
5.95 TOP MARGIN
4.52 CHART TOP
11.90 LEFT MARGIN
11.90 RIGHT MARGIN DO NOT ALTER SLIDE MASTERS – THIS IS A TNS APPROVED TEMPLATE
© TNS
Relationship Between GDP And Passenger Vehicle Sales
2971 3253
3564
3897 4159
4516
4919
5248 5482
5742
6029
9
11
14
15 16
20
25 26
27
25
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
(Est)
GDP Passenger Vehicle Sales
72
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5.95 TOP MARGIN
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© TNS
Relationship Between GDP And Two Wheeler Sales
2971
3253
3564
3897 4159
4516
4919
5248 5482
5742
6029
62
71
79 72 74
94
118
134 138
148
162
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
(Est)
GDP 2W Sales
73
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5.95 TOP MARGIN
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© TNS
Are The GDP And Automotive Sales Going Together?
0.96 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
0.96 0.94 0.92 0.88
0.82
0.66
-0.18
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2004-14 2005-14 2006-14 2007-14 2008-14 2009-14 2010-14
Corelation 2W sales Corelation Passenger Vehicle sales
74
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© TNS 83