mean field limits for stochastic differential games · mean eld limits for stochastic di erential...
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Mean field limits for stochastic differentialgames
Daniel Lacker
Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University
November 18, 2015
![Page 2: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Introduction
Section 1
Introduction
![Page 3: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Introduction
Mean field theories beyond physics
Mean field theory in a nutshell: Approximate statistical featuresof a n-particle system by a ∞-particle system.
Applications outside of physics:
I economics & finance (systemic risk, income distribution...)
I biology (flocking...)
I sociology (crowd dynamics, voter models...)
I electrical engineering (telecommunications...)
Why mean field game theory?
It replaces particles with rational agents. Laws of motion emerge inequilibrium and need not be prescribed exogenously.
![Page 4: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Introduction
Mean field theories beyond physics
Mean field theory in a nutshell: Approximate statistical featuresof a n-particle system by a ∞-particle system.
Applications outside of physics:
I economics & finance (systemic risk, income distribution...)
I biology (flocking...)
I sociology (crowd dynamics, voter models...)
I electrical engineering (telecommunications...)
Why mean field game theory?
It replaces particles with rational agents. Laws of motion emerge inequilibrium and need not be prescribed exogenously.
![Page 5: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Introduction
Mean field theories beyond physics
Main novelties of MFG theory: continuous time (PDEs, SDEs)and rigorous connection to finite-population models
Most-studied so far: MFG analogs of McKean-Vlasov interactingdiffusion models. Stochastic differential MFGsLasry/Lions and Huang/Malhame/Caines, 2006
Some recent literature: MFG analogs of
I Spin systems (Horst/Scheinkman)
I Stochastic coalescence (Duffie/Malamud/Manso)
![Page 6: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
Section 2
A prototypical MFG model
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = a(X t − X i
t )dt + σρdW it + σ
√1− ρ2dBt ,
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Rate of borrowing/lending between banks: a > 0
Goal: Find probabilities of systemic events of the form{min
0≤t≤TX t ≤ D
}, D = default level.
![Page 8: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = a(X t − X i
t )dt + σρdW it + σ
√1− ρ2dBt ,
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Rate of borrowing/lending between banks: a > 0
Goal: Find probabilities of systemic events of the form{min
0≤t≤TX t ≤ D
}, D = default level.
![Page 9: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = a(X t − X i
t )dt + σρdW it + σ
√1− ρ2dBt ,
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Limiting dynamics for X as n→∞:
X t =σρ
n
n∑i=1
W it + σ
√1− ρ2Bt → σ
√1− ρ2Bt .
![Page 10: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = a(X t − X i
t )dt + σdW it
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Limiting dynamics for X and X i as n→∞:
X t =σ
n
n∑i=1
W it → 0,
dX it ≈ −aX i
t dt + σdW it
![Page 11: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Carmona/Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field game model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = αi
tdt + σρdW it + σ
√1− ρ2dBt ,
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Bank i chooses to borrow/lend from a central bank at rate αit ,
to minimize some cost
E[∫ T
0f (X i
t ,X t , αit)dt + g(X i
T ,XT )
].
Goal: Find systemic event probabilities in Nash equilibrium.
![Page 12: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
A prototypical MFG model
A model of systemic risk: Carmona/Fouque/Sun ’13
Mean field game model:n banks with log-monetary reserves (X i
t )t∈[0,T ],
dX it = αi
tdt + σρdW it + σ
√1− ρ2dBt ,
X t =1
n
n∑k=1
X kt
Bank i chooses to borrow/lend from a central bank at rate αit ,
to minimize some cost
E[∫ T
0f (X i
t ,X t , αit)dt + g(X i
T ,XT )
].
Goal: Find systemic event probabilities in Nash equilibrium.
![Page 13: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Section 3
Stochastic differential mean field games
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Stochastic differential gamesAgents i = 1, . . . , n have state process dynamics
dX it = b(X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + σdW i
t + σ0dBt ,
µnt :=1
n
n∑k=1
δX kt,
with B,W 1, . . . ,W n independent, (X 10 , . . . ,X
n0 ) i.i.d.
Agent i chooses αi to minimize
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) := E[∫ T
0f (X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + g(X i
T , µnT )
].
Say (α1, . . . , αn) form an (open-loop) ε-Nash equilibrium if
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) ≤ ε+ infβJni (. . . , αi−1, β, αi+1, . . .),∀i = 1, . . . , n
![Page 15: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Stochastic differential gamesAgents i = 1, . . . , n have state process dynamics
dX it = b(X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + σdW i
t + σ0dBt ,
µnt :=1
n
n∑k=1
δX kt,
with B,W 1, . . . ,W n independent, (X 10 , . . . ,X
n0 ) i.i.d.
Agent i chooses αi to minimize
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) := E[∫ T
0f (X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + g(X i
T , µnT )
].
Say (α1, . . . , αn) form an (open-loop) ε-Nash equilibrium if
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) ≤ ε+ infβJni (. . . , αi−1, β, αi+1, . . .),∀i = 1, . . . , n
![Page 16: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Stochastic differential gamesAgents i = 1, . . . , n have state process dynamics
dX it = b(X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + σdW i
t + σ0dBt ,
µnt :=1
n
n∑k=1
δX kt,
with B,W 1, . . . ,W n independent, (X 10 , . . . ,X
n0 ) i.i.d.
Agent i chooses αi to minimize
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) := E[∫ T
0f (X i
t , µnt , α
it)dt + g(X i
T , µnT )
].
Say (α1, . . . , αn) form an (open-loop) ε-Nash equilibrium if
Jni (α1, . . . , αn) ≤ ε+ infβJni (. . . , αi−1, β, αi+1, . . .),∀i = 1, . . . , n
![Page 17: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Mean field limit n→∞?
The problem
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium (αn,1, . . . , αn,n), withεn → 0, can we characterize the possible limits of µnt ?Limiting behavior of a representative agent?
Previous resultsLasry/ Lions ’06, Bardi ’11, Feleqi ’13, Gomes ’13,Carmona/Fouque/Sun ’13, Fischer ’14,Cardaliaguet-Delarue-Lasry-Lions ’15
A related, better-understood problem
Find a mean field game solution directly, and use it to construct anεn-Nash equilibrium for the n-player game.See Huang/Malhame/Caines ’06 & many others.
![Page 18: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Mean field limit n→∞?
The problem
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium (αn,1, . . . , αn,n), withεn → 0, can we characterize the possible limits of µnt ?Limiting behavior of a representative agent?
Previous resultsLasry/ Lions ’06, Bardi ’11, Feleqi ’13, Gomes ’13,Carmona/Fouque/Sun ’13, Fischer ’14,Cardaliaguet-Delarue-Lasry-Lions ’15
A related, better-understood problem
Find a mean field game solution directly, and use it to construct anεn-Nash equilibrium for the n-player game.See Huang/Malhame/Caines ’06 & many others.
![Page 19: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Mean field limit n→∞?
The problem
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium (αn,1, . . . , αn,n), withεn → 0, can we characterize the possible limits of µnt ?Limiting behavior of a representative agent?
Previous resultsLasry/ Lions ’06, Bardi ’11, Feleqi ’13, Gomes ’13,Carmona/Fouque/Sun ’13, Fischer ’14,Cardaliaguet-Delarue-Lasry-Lions ’15
A related, better-understood problem
Find a mean field game solution directly, and use it to construct anεn-Nash equilibrium for the n-player game.See Huang/Malhame/Caines ’06 & many others.
![Page 20: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, without common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a deterministic measure-valuedprocess satisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t ).
![Page 21: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, without common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a deterministic measure-valuedprocess satisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t ).
![Page 22: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, with common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a stochastic measure-valued processsatisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | FB
t ), FBt := σ(Bs : s ≤ t).
We call this a strong MFG solution, since µt is FBt -adapted.
Without some kind of uniqueness (hard to come by!), we shouldexpect only a weak solution:
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
![Page 23: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, with common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a stochastic measure-valued processsatisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | FB
t ), FBt := σ(Bs : s ≤ t).
We call this a strong MFG solution, since µt is FBt -adapted.
Without some kind of uniqueness (hard to come by!), we shouldexpect only a weak solution:
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
![Page 24: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, with common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a stochastic measure-valued processsatisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | FB
t ), FBt := σ(Bs : s ≤ t).
We call this a strong MFG solution, since µt is FBt -adapted.
Without some kind of uniqueness (hard to come by!), we shouldexpect only a weak solution:
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
![Page 25: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Stochastic differential mean field games
Proposed mean field game limit, with common noise
We hope µn → µ, where µ is a stochastic measure-valued processsatisfying:
α∗ ∈ arg minα E[∫ T
0 f (Xαt , µt , αt)dt + g(Xα
T , µT )],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | FB
t ), FBt := σ(Bs : s ≤ t).
We call this a strong MFG solution, since µt is FBt -adapted.
Without some kind of uniqueness (hard to come by!), we shouldexpect only a weak solution:
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
![Page 26: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Section 4
New results
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Standing assumptions
Admissible controls for n-player game
Any Fnt -adapted process, where
Fnt ⊃ σ(X 1
0 , . . . ,Xn0 ,W
1s , . . . ,W
ns ,Bs : s ≤ t).
Technicalitiesb, f , g continuous, control space A ⊂ Rk closed, b Lipschitz in(x , µ), growth assumptions...
![Page 28: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Main results
Theorem (Mean field limit)
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium with εn → 0, the sequence(µn)∞n=1 is tight, and every limit is a weak MFG solution.Conversely, every weak MFG solution can be obtained as a limit inthis way.
Theorem (Existence, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
There exists a weak MFG solution.
Theorem (Uniqueness, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
A Yamada-Watanabe-type theorem holds for MFGs, and understrong additional assumptions we have pathwise uniqueness.
Theorem (Existence, with K. Webster)
“Translation invariant” MFGs admit strong solutions.
![Page 29: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Main results
Theorem (Mean field limit)
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium with εn → 0, the sequence(µn)∞n=1 is tight, and every limit is a weak MFG solution.Conversely, every weak MFG solution can be obtained as a limit inthis way.
Theorem (Existence, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
There exists a weak MFG solution.
Theorem (Uniqueness, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
A Yamada-Watanabe-type theorem holds for MFGs, and understrong additional assumptions we have pathwise uniqueness.
Theorem (Existence, with K. Webster)
“Translation invariant” MFGs admit strong solutions.
![Page 30: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Main results
Theorem (Mean field limit)
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium with εn → 0, the sequence(µn)∞n=1 is tight, and every limit is a weak MFG solution.Conversely, every weak MFG solution can be obtained as a limit inthis way.
Theorem (Existence, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
There exists a weak MFG solution.
Theorem (Uniqueness, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
A Yamada-Watanabe-type theorem holds for MFGs, and understrong additional assumptions we have pathwise uniqueness.
Theorem (Existence, with K. Webster)
“Translation invariant” MFGs admit strong solutions.
![Page 31: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
New results
Main results
Theorem (Mean field limit)
Given for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium with εn → 0, the sequence(µn)∞n=1 is tight, and every limit is a weak MFG solution.Conversely, every weak MFG solution can be obtained as a limit inthis way.
Theorem (Existence, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
There exists a weak MFG solution.
Theorem (Uniqueness, with R. Carmona & F. Delarue)
A Yamada-Watanabe-type theorem holds for MFGs, and understrong additional assumptions we have pathwise uniqueness.
Theorem (Existence, with K. Webster)
“Translation invariant” MFGs admit strong solutions.
![Page 32: Mean field limits for stochastic differential games · Mean eld limits for stochastic di erential games Introduction Mean eld theories beyond physics Main novelties of MFG theory:](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042708/5f398e1afd481c33250e559b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Section 5
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasovlimits
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Interacting particle system without common noise
Particles i = 1, . . . , n have dynamics
dX it = b(X i
t , µnt )dt + σdW i
t ,
µnt :=1
n
n∑k=1
δX kt,
with W 1, . . . ,W n independent, (X 10 , . . . ,X
n0 ) i.i.d.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Mean field limit n→∞
Theorem
1. µn are tight in C ([0,T ];P(R)).
2. Every weak limit µ is such that a.e. realizationν ∈ C ([0,T ];P(R)) satisfies the McKean-Vlasov (MV)equation: {
dXt = b(Xt , νt)dt + σdWt ,
νt = Law(Xt).
See: Oelschlager ’84, Gartner ’88.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Mean field limit n→∞
Theorem
1. µn are tight in C ([0,T ];P(R)).
2. Every weak limit µ is such that a.e. realizationν ∈ C ([0,T ];P(R)) satisfies the McKean-Vlasov (MV)equation: {
dXt = b(Xt , νt)dt + σdWt ,
νt = Law(Xt).
See: Oelschlager ’84, Gartner ’88.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
McKean-Vlasov equations (MFG without control)
Strong McKean-Vlasov solution: A deterministic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt).
Weak McKean-Vlasov solution: A stochastic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµt ), with X0, W , µ independent.
TheoremA stochastic µ is a weak solution if and only if it is concentratedon the set of strong solutions, that is a.e. realization is a strongsolution.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
McKean-Vlasov equations (MFG without control)
Strong McKean-Vlasov solution: A deterministic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt).
Weak McKean-Vlasov solution: A stochastic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµt ), with X0, W , µ independent.
TheoremA stochastic µ is a weak solution if and only if it is concentratedon the set of strong solutions, that is a.e. realization is a strongsolution.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
McKean-Vlasov equations (MFG without control)
Strong McKean-Vlasov solution: A deterministic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt).
Weak McKean-Vlasov solution: A stochastic µ s.t.:{dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµt ), with X0, W , µ independent.
TheoremA stochastic µ is a weak solution if and only if it is concentratedon the set of strong solutions, that is a.e. realization is a strongsolution.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
MFG solutions without common noise
Strong MFG solution: A deterministic µ s.t.:α∗ ∈ arg minα E
[∫ T0 f (Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + g(XαT , µT )
],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t ).
Weak MFG solution: A stochastic µ s.t.:α∗ ∈ arg minα E
[∫ T0 f (Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + g(XαT , µT )
],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµt ), with X0, W , µ independent.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
MFG solutions without common noise
Strong MFG solution: A deterministic µ s.t.:α∗ ∈ arg minα E
[∫ T0 f (Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + g(XαT , µT )
],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t ).
Weak MFG solution: A stochastic µ s.t.:α∗ ∈ arg minα E
[∫ T0 f (Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + g(XαT , µT )
],
dXαt = b(Xα
t , µt , αt)dt + σdWt ,
µt = Law(Xα∗t | Fµt ), with X0, W , µ independent.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Weak vs strong MFG solutions
Until now, the MFG literature only considered strong solutions:
A natural question:
Are weak MFG solutions concentrated on the set of strong MFGsolutions? In other words, is a.e. realization of a weak MFGsolution a strong MFG solution?
AnswerNO.
ConclusionStrong solutions are not enough to describe mean field limits.
The obstructionWhen µ is deterministic, the control α can anticipate µ.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Weak vs strong MFG solutions
Until now, the MFG literature only considered strong solutions:
A natural question:
Are weak MFG solutions concentrated on the set of strong MFGsolutions? In other words, is a.e. realization of a weak MFGsolution a strong MFG solution?
AnswerNO.
ConclusionStrong solutions are not enough to describe mean field limits.
The obstructionWhen µ is deterministic, the control α can anticipate µ.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Weak vs strong MFG solutions
Until now, the MFG literature only considered strong solutions:
A natural question:
Are weak MFG solutions concentrated on the set of strong MFGsolutions? In other words, is a.e. realization of a weak MFGsolution a strong MFG solution?
AnswerNO.
ConclusionStrong solutions are not enough to describe mean field limits.
The obstructionWhen µ is deterministic, the control α can anticipate µ.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
Weak vs strong MFG solutions
Until now, the MFG literature only considered strong solutions:
A natural question:
Are weak MFG solutions concentrated on the set of strong MFGsolutions? In other words, is a.e. realization of a weak MFGsolution a strong MFG solution?
AnswerNO.
ConclusionStrong solutions are not enough to describe mean field limits.
The obstructionWhen µ is deterministic, the control α can anticipate µ.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Similarities & differences with McKean-Vlasov limits
A resolution
A sufficient conditionFor each deterministic µ = (µt)t∈[0,T ], find an optimal controlα∗[µ] = (α∗[µ]t)t∈[0,T ]. Suppose
α∗[µ]t = α∗[µ·∧t ]t , for all t, µ.
Then every weak solution is concentrated on the set of strongsolutions.
Open problem
For a family of optimal control problems parametrized by paths(µt)t∈[0,T ], under what conditions is the dependence of theoptimal control on the parameter adapted?
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Section 6
MFG limit proof outline
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Interacting particle system with common noise
Particles i = 1, . . . , n have dynamics
dX it = b(X i
t , µnt )dt + σdW i
t + σ0dBt ,
µnt :=1
n
n∑k=1
δX kt,
with B,W 1, . . . ,W n independent, (X 10 , . . . ,X
n0 ) i.i.d.
See: Dawson/Vaillancourt ’95, Kurtz/Xiong ’99
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Mean field limit n→∞, an unorthodox approach
Theorem
1. (µn,B,W 1,X 1) are tight in C ([0,T ];P(R)× R3).
2. Every weak limit (µ,B,W ,X ) solves the conditionalMcKean-Vlasov (CMV) equation:{
dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
This approach keeps track of a representative particle and thusadapts well to the MFG setting.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Mean field limit n→∞, an unorthodox approach
Theorem
1. (µn,B,W 1,X 1) are tight in C ([0,T ];P(R)× R3).
2. Every weak limit (µ,B,W ,X ) solves the conditionalMcKean-Vlasov (CMV) equation:{
dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
This approach keeps track of a representative particle and thusadapts well to the MFG setting.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Mean field limit n→∞, an unorthodox approach
Theorem
1. (µn,B,W 1,X 1) are tight in C ([0,T ];P(R)× R3).
2. Every weak limit (µ,B,W ,X ) solves the conditionalMcKean-Vlasov (CMV) equation:{
dXt = b(Xt , µt)dt + σdWt + σ0dBt ,
µt = Law(Xt | Fµ,Bt ), with X0, (µ,B),W independent.
This approach keeps track of a representative particle and thusadapts well to the MFG setting.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Proving the MFG limit
TheoremGiven for each n an εn-Nash equilibrium (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) withεn → 0, the sequence (µn)∞n=1 is tight, and every limit is a weakMFG solution.
Proof outline
1. Deal with lack of exchangeability.
2. Control the controls.
3. Prove tightness.
4. Check dynamics and fixed point condition at limit.
5. Prove optimality of limits.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 1: Exchangeability
Naive ideaStudy the joint law of (µn,B,W 1, αn,1,X 1).
ProblemNo reason to expect (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) or (X 1, . . . ,X n) to beexchangeable.
SolutionRandomly select representative agent. Study the laws
Qn =1
n
n∑i=1
Law(µn,B,W i ,X i , αn,i
)= Law
(µn,B,W U ,XU , αn,U
),
where U ∼ Uniform{1, . . . , n} is independent of everything.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 1: Exchangeability
Naive ideaStudy the joint law of (µn,B,W 1, αn,1,X 1).
ProblemNo reason to expect (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) or (X 1, . . . ,X n) to beexchangeable.
SolutionRandomly select representative agent. Study the laws
Qn =1
n
n∑i=1
Law(µn,B,W i ,X i , αn,i
)= Law
(µn,B,W U ,XU , αn,U
),
where U ∼ Uniform{1, . . . , n} is independent of everything.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 1: Exchangeability
Naive ideaStudy the joint law of (µn,B,W 1, αn,1,X 1).
ProblemNo reason to expect (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) or (X 1, . . . ,X n) to beexchangeable.
SolutionRandomly select representative agent. Study the laws
Qn =1
n
n∑i=1
Law(µn,B,W i ,X i , αn,i
)= Law
(µn,B,W U ,XU , αn,U
),
where U ∼ Uniform{1, . . . , n} is independent of everything.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 2: Control the controls
ProblemFind a good space for the controls, αn,i . Compactness is difficultin L0([0,T ];A), with topology of convergence in measure.
SolutionUse relaxed controls,
V := weak closure{dtδα(t)(da) : α ∈ L0([0,T ];A)
}∼=(L0([0,T ];P(A)), τrelaxed
).
Drift with a relaxed control Λ is∫A b(Xt , µt , a)Λt(da).
An extreme caseSuppose g ≡ f ≡ 0. Then any strategies (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) are Nash,and any relaxed control can arise in the limit.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 2: Control the controls
ProblemFind a good space for the controls, αn,i . Compactness is difficultin L0([0,T ];A), with topology of convergence in measure.
SolutionUse relaxed controls,
V := weak closure{dtδα(t)(da) : α ∈ L0([0,T ];A)
}∼=(L0([0,T ];P(A)), τrelaxed
).
Drift with a relaxed control Λ is∫A b(Xt , µt , a)Λt(da).
An extreme caseSuppose g ≡ f ≡ 0. Then any strategies (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) are Nash,and any relaxed control can arise in the limit.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 2: Control the controls
ProblemFind a good space for the controls, αn,i . Compactness is difficultin L0([0,T ];A), with topology of convergence in measure.
SolutionUse relaxed controls,
V := weak closure{dtδα(t)(da) : α ∈ L0([0,T ];A)
}∼=(L0([0,T ];P(A)), τrelaxed
).
Drift with a relaxed control Λ is∫A b(Xt , µt , a)Λt(da).
An extreme caseSuppose g ≡ f ≡ 0. Then any strategies (αn,1, . . . , αn,n) are Nash,and any relaxed control can arise in the limit.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
ProblemWhat is the right class of admissible (relaxed) controls Λ for theMFG?
Natural but bad choice #1
Require Λ adapted to the filtration FX0,µ,B,Wt generated by
(X0, µ,B,W ), the given sources of randomness for the controlproblems. This class is too small, and does not necessarily containour limit.
Natural but bad choice #2
Require that B and W remain Wiener processes with respect tothe filtration generated by (X0, µ,B,W ,Λ). This class is too large,and our limit may not be optimal in this class.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
ProblemWhat is the right class of admissible (relaxed) controls Λ for theMFG?
Natural but bad choice #1
Require Λ adapted to the filtration FX0,µ,B,Wt generated by
(X0, µ,B,W ), the given sources of randomness for the controlproblems. This class is too small, and does not necessarily containour limit.
Natural but bad choice #2
Require that B and W remain Wiener processes with respect tothe filtration generated by (X0, µ,B,W ,Λ). This class is too large,and our limit may not be optimal in this class.
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
The right choice
Require Λ to be compatible, meaning that FΛt is conditionally
independent of FX0,µ,B,WT given FX0,µ,B,W
t , for each t.
LemmaUnder any weak limit, the relaxed control Λ is compatible.
LemmaA control Λ is compatible if and only if there exists a sequence ofFX0,µ,B,Wt -adapted controls αk = αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ), continuous
in µ, such that
(X0, µ,B,W , αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ))⇒ (X0, µ,B,W ,Λ).
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
The right choice
Require Λ to be compatible, meaning that FΛt is conditionally
independent of FX0,µ,B,WT given FX0,µ,B,W
t , for each t.
LemmaUnder any weak limit, the relaxed control Λ is compatible.
LemmaA control Λ is compatible if and only if there exists a sequence ofFX0,µ,B,Wt -adapted controls αk = αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ), continuous
in µ, such that
(X0, µ,B,W , αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ))⇒ (X0, µ,B,W ,Λ).
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
The right choice
Require Λ to be compatible, meaning that FΛt is conditionally
independent of FX0,µ,B,WT given FX0,µ,B,W
t , for each t.
LemmaUnder any weak limit, the relaxed control Λ is compatible.
LemmaA control Λ is compatible if and only if there exists a sequence ofFX0,µ,B,Wt -adapted controls αk = αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ), continuous
in µ, such that
(X0, µ,B,W , αk(t,X0, µ,B,W ))⇒ (X0, µ,B,W ,Λ).
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
MFG limit proof outline
Step 5: Optimality
Fix a weak limit (µ,B,W ,Λ,X ). Show Λ optimal amongcompatible controls:
1. Consider first a FX0,µ,B,Wt -adapted strict control
α(t,X0, µ,B,W ), with α continuous in µ.
2. Construct an admissible strategy for the n-player game viaβn,it = α(t,X i
0, µn,B,W i ).
3. By εn-Nash property in n-player game, αn,i is nearly superiorto βn,i for agent i .
4. Passing the inequality to the limit (using continuity of α inµ), Λ is superior to α(t,X0, µ,B,W ).
5. Conclude by approximating general compatible controls bysuch α(t,X0, µ,B,W ).
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Refinements
Section 7
Refinements
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Refinements
Strong controls
We are even more interested in MFG solutions with strongcontrols, meaning Λt = δαt for some FX0,µ,B,W
t -progressiveA-valued process α.
TheoremSuppose b is affine in (x , a), f is strictly convex in (x , a), and g isconvex in x . Then every weak MFG solution necessarily has strongcontrol.
⇒ Can state MFG limit theorem without reference to relaxedcontrols or compatibility
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Mean field limits for stochastic differential games
Refinements
Uniqueness
We are even more interested in strong MFG solutions, meaning thecontrol is strong and also µ is B-measurable, so
µt = Law(Xt ∈ · | FBt ).
TheoremSuppose b = b(x , a) is affine in (x , a) and independent of themean field, f is strictly convex in (x , a), g is convex in x ,f = f1(t, x , µ) + f2(t, x , a), and monotonicity holds: ∀µ, ν,∫
[f1(t, x , µ)− f1(t, x , ν) + g(x , µ)− g(x , ν)] (µ− ν)(dx) ≥ 0.
Then “pathwise uniqueness” holds, and the unique weak MFGsolution is strong. In particular, for every sequence of εn-Nashequilibria converges to the unique MFG solution.