mba presentation
DESCRIPTION
Presentation tot he Metropolitan Builders Association looking at housing demand in Wisconsin and offering an analysis of new housing products in the Milwaukee and Denver markets.TRANSCRIPT
Is there a deficiency or is there a demand?
Demographics, density, & housing in Wisconsin
(With a comparison of Milwaukee and other communities)
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Wisconsin vs. United States
▪ 2005 Population▫ Wisconsin 5,536,201 (1.9%)▫ United States 296,410,404
▪ Population Growth Rate▫ Wisconsin 3.2%▫ United States 5.3%
▪ White Population▫ Wisconsin 90.2%▫ United States 80.4%
▪ Hispanic Population▫ Wisconsin 4.3%▫ United States 14.1%
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Wisconsin vs. United States
▪ Home Ownership▫ Wisconsin 68.4%▫ United States 66.2%
▪ Housing in Multi-Unit Structures▫ Wisconsin 26.2%▫ United States 26.4%
▪ Median Value (2000)▫ Wisconsin $112,200▫ United States $119,600
▪ Median Household Income (2003)▫ Wisconsin $46,538▫ United States $43,318
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Wisconsin’s Projected Growth
▪ Population▫ 5.56 million (2005)▫ 6.42 million (2030)▫ 850,000 increase▫ 2/3 organic growth
▪ Households▫ 2.19 million (2005)▫ 2.67 million (2030)▫ 477,000 increase▫ 19,100 annually
Wisconsin's Population
55
63
89
6
64
15
92
3
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Number of Households
26676882190210
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Future Population Profile
▪ Older (and younger)▪ More racially diverse
▫ 87.3% to 82.2% White, Non-Hispanic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2025
Racial Composition
NativeAmerican
Asian
Hispanic
Black
Non-HispanicWhite
Householders by Age Group
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
15-24 25-34 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Wisconsin Building Permits
▪ 2005 Statistics▫ 35,513 total units▫ 73.6% single-family structures▫ 4.8% two-unit structures▫ 2.9% three- and four-unit structures▫ 18.7% five or more unit structures
Residential Building Permits
34
19
2
37
77
3
38
25
3
41
13
9
40
17
8
35
51
3
24
05
6
25
39
7
26
12
7
28
99
9
29
90
2
26
14
5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
All Permits Single Family Permits
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Wisconsin Metropolitan Areas
▪ 22,441 permits in metropolitan counties (63.2%)▪ 13,072 permits in non-metropolitan counties (36.8%)
Building Permits in Metropolitan Areas (2005)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
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Duluth
MN-W
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Green
Bay
Janes
ville
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Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
SE Wisconsin Building Permits
▪ Waukesha 14,220▪ Milwaukee 11,287▪ Kenosha 7,080 ▪ Washington 6,629
▪ Racine 6,088
▪ Walworth 5,972
▪ Ozaukee3,123
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Residential Building Permits by County - Southeastern Wisconsin
Waukesha
Washington
Walworth
Racine
Ozaukee
Milwaukee
Kenosha
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
2007 Forecast (Money Magazine)
▪ All of the state’s metropolitan areas will continue to see an increase in home values
▪ Growth is slowing
5-Year Average Change Median MarketMetropolitan Area Change Change Last Year Home Value ForecastWausau 32.5% 5.8% 7.0% $123,227 3.6%Green Bay 28.7% 5.2% 5.8% $151,000 3.4%Appleton 27.9% 5.0% 6.9% $129,000 3.1%Fond du Lac 24.7% 4.5% 4.0% $126,326 2.8%Sheboygan 28.4% 5.1% 8.6% $121,678 2.7%Janesville 28.5% 5.2% 7.5% $129,675 2.6%Eau Claire 31.5% 5.6% 6.7% $123,608 2.3%La Crosse 34.5% 6.1% 7.5% $115,469 2.1%Madison 41.0% 7.1% 8.4% $225,000 2.0%Racine 46.0% 7.9% 11.7% $125,665 1.8%Milwaukee 44.1% 7.6% 9.3% $212,000 1.3%
Change in Home Values by Market - Wisconsin
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
2007 Forecast (Money Magazine)
▪ The slowdown is everywhere▪ Milwaukee is slower than most▪ US average forecast is 3.5% growth
5-Year Average Change Median MarketMetropolitan Area Change Change Last Year Home Value ForecastSalt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 29.5% 5.3% 13.8% $182,000 7.6%Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 58.5% 9.7% 20.7% $265,000 7.5%San Fransisco, CA 46.7% 8.0% 12.8% $835,000 6.3%Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 91.3% 13.9% 22.8% $221,000 5.4%San Antonio, TX 31.6% 5.7% 10.2% $137,000 5.0%Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 25.5% 4.7% 3.1% $142,000 4.0%Austin-Round Rock, TX 18.5% 3.5% 7.0% $167,000 3.7%Indianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 19.6% 3.6% 4.9% $122,000 3.6%Chicago, IL 54.7% 9.1% 10.4% $274,000 3.4%GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 23.5% 4.3% 4.1% $135,000 3.3%Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 20.8% 3.9% 3.2% $172,000 2.8%Minneapolis, MN 51.5% 8.7% 5.4% $240,000 1.9%Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 44.1% 7.6% 9.3% $212,000 1.3%Denver-Aurora, CO 20.7% 3.8% 3.9% $262,000 1.1%Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 116.3% 16.7% 10.4% $319,000 -3.4%
Change in Home Values by Market - Selected Metropolitan Areas
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Housing Affordability
▪ The Midwest is the most affordable region in the US▪ The Milwaukee market is still affordable
Metropolitan Area Affordability National Rank Income Home PriceIndianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 90.1 5 $65,100 $113,000GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 83.6 19 $61,500 $127,000Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 76.0 36 $57,400 $114,000Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 71.8 41 $64,400 $150,000Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI 71.3 44 $66,800 $156,000Minneapolis, MN 63.0 60 $78,500 $230,000Denver-Aurora, CO 62.4 63 $71,300 $221,000San Antonio, TX 59.6 68 $53,100 $143,000Austin-Round Rock, TX 58.3 73 $69,600 $197,000Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 52.6 87 $60,300 $200,000Chicago, IL 51.3 90 $72,100 $241,000Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 50.1 95 $61,300 $223,000Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 42.5 109 $66,900 $250,000Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 19.4 150 $58,200 $298,000San Fransisco, CA 7.8 169 $91,200 $745,000
Housing Affordability for Selected Metropolitan Areas
Affordability = % of homes sold that families earning the median metropolitan income can afford to purchase180 Metropolitan Areas
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Population Density
▪ Density per square mile of land area▪ Based on county area measurement▪ More similar to older communities than to the
recognized leaders in growth management
Metropolitan Area Population Housing Density Metropolitan AreaChicago, IL 8,272,768 701 San Fransisco, CAMinneapolis, MN 2,968,806 619 Chicago, ILPittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,358,695 424 Milwaukee-Waukesha, WIPortland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 2,265,223 282 Salt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CTDenver-Aurora, CO 2,109,282 264 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NCSan Fransisco, CA 1,731,183 228 Denver-Aurora, COIndianapolis-Anderson-Columbus, IN 1,607,486 226 Pittsburgh-New Castle, PASan Antonio, TX 1,592,383 208 Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OHVirginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1,569,541 193 Indianapolic-Anderson-Columbus, INLas Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV 1,563,282 193 Minneapolis, MNColumbus-Marion-Chillicothe, OH 1,540,157 180 San Antonio, TXMilwaukee-Waukesha, WI 1,500,741 153 GrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MISalt Lake City-Ogden-Clearfield, CT 1,333,914 132 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WAAustin-Round Rock, TX 1,249,763 125 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Columbia, TNNashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Columbia, TN 1,231,311 117 Austin-Round Rock, TXGrandRapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI 1,088,514 17 Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV
Population and Housing Density per Square Mile for Selected Metropolitan Areas
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
What have we built alike?
▪ Denver’s urban core
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
What have we built alike?
▪ Milwaukee’s urban core
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
What have we built alike?
▪ Denver suburbs
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
What have we built alike?
▪ Milwaukee suburbs
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
What might we build?
▪ Traditional Neighborhood Development▫ Few examples in
Wisconsin▫ Madison – Milwaukee
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Traditional Neighborhoods
▪ Compact▪ Mixed-use▪ Walkable
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Conservation Development
▪ Preserve open space▪ Infrastructure costs▪ Sustainable practices▪ Density bonuses
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Cottage Housing
▪ Small units▪ Green space▪ Good design ▪ Young market
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
True Mixed Use
▪ Commercial – Residential – Industrial – Live/Work
Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
Questions
▪ How will the demand for housing change as our population changes?
▪ Are we offering the housing options desired by the market?
▪ Are alternative approaches to housing not common because they are not wanted;or if they were built, would they sell?
▪ Do we simply like our detached homes on large lots too much to change?
▪ Do we need to change?▪ Are we creating workforce housing?