mazama scienceclean and green energy forum, dana point, ca, dec 3-4, 2012 oil and gas trends...
TRANSCRIPT
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012
Oil and Gas Trends
Educated guesses about future prices.
Jonathan CallahanMazama Science
MAZAMA SCIENCE
Data – Information – Knowledge
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 2
Oil is a global market.
Oil is a globally traded commodity.
Humans use +/- 85 million barrels per day.
Some nations are net oil exporters, others net importers.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 3
Top oil exporting nations:
Not many free market democracies.
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
mbd
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 4
Top oil importing nations:
US per capita consumption is 10x that of China.
mbd
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 5
The US is the #1 oil importer.
We import more crude oil than we produce.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 6
China is the #2 oil importer.
As nations develop, consumption rises rapidly.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 7
India is the #5 oil importer.
When will Indian consumption slow down?
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 8
Factors affecting long term prices:
Demand in developing nations is rising rapidly.
Demand in OECD nations is falling slowly.
Global exporters are “not our people”.
Over 2-20 years: upward pressure on oil prices
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 9
Natural Gas is a local, seasonal market.
The US natural gas market is mostly landlocked.
Americans use +/- 65 billion cubic feet per day.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 10
The US is the #1 natural gas consumer.
We are approaching zero net imports.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 11
Natural gas storage provides a seasonal buffer.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 12
Gas in storage has a strong seasonal cycle.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 13
This past winter,storage didn't empty out.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 14
Forecast says “full” is more likely than “empty”.
Mazama Science Clean and Green Energy Forum, Dana Point, CA, Dec 3-4, 2012 15
Factors affecting short term prices:
In recent years, storage is trending toward “full”.
Forecast says “full” is more likely than “empty”.
Storage is largely determined by weather.
BUT!! Climate & weather are inherently unpredictable.
Over 2-20 months: downward pressure on nat. gas prices