IP& fE C IE II '¥ rcC 27 MAY 2016

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RESPONSE TO THE PARLIAMENT OF VICTORIA'S LAW REFORM, ROAD AND COMMUNITY SAFETY COMMITTEE

INQUIRY INTO LOWERING THE DRIVING AGE

May 2016

Prepared by Dr Alexia Lennon (CARRS-Q) and Dr Lyndel Bates (Griffith University)

The Centre for Accident Research Et Road Safety - Queensland ~ is a joint venture initiative of the Motor Accident Insurance •

Commission and Queensland University of Technology

Inquiry into Lowering the Probationary Driving Age to 17 years in Victoria

By the Parliament of Victoria Law Reform, Road and Community Safety Committee

Newly licenced drivers have the highest crash risk of any age group and this is a worldwide

phenomenon which has been evident for at least the past three decades. In Australia, young drivers

in their first 6 months of licencing have a crash rate approximately four times higher than that of

drivers who have been driving independently for 3 or more years (DITRDLG, 2010; TMR, 2014).

Drivers aged 16-24 years, accounted for 110 deaths which was around half of all driver deaths in

2014 (BITRE, 2014) while only being 14% of the population. This proportion has remained consistent

over the past 5 years. For Victoria, of 249 total road fatalities in 2014, 49 were aged 17-25 years

(BITRE, 2014). The risk of crashing falls rapidly during the 6 months following obtaining a provisional

or probationary licence, and then more slowly for the ensuing 18 months following this (Mayhew,

Simpson & Pak, 2003; McCartt, Shabanova & Leaf, 2003).

Factors known to contribute to this elevated risk are being young, inexperience in relation to vehicle

handling skills, intentional risk taking behaviour, and lifestyle factors that lead to increased exposure

to riskier driving contexts (Bates, Davey, Watson, King & Armstrong, 2014; Mayhew et aI., 2003;

McCartt, et aI., 2003; Williams, 2003). However, the factor regarded as contributing the most to

young driver elevated crash risk is inexperience in detecting hazards (Borowsky, Oron-Gilad &

Parmet, 2009; Leung & Starmer, 2005; Sagberg & Bjornskau, 2006; Smith, Horswill, Chambers &

Wetton,2009). This skill requires considerable practice and experience to develop.

In order to allow young people the opportunity to develop better hazard perception skills as well as

to reduce their exposure to riskier driving condit ions, graduated driver licensing (GDl) has been

implemented in some form in all jurisdictions in Australia, including Victoria. Under the Victorian

GDl system, novice drivers are currently protected by minimum practice requirements (120 hours of

supervised driving), restrictions on their use of a mobile phone while driving, limits on the carriage of

peer-aged passengers, limits on the engine type/size of the vehicle, and zero blood alcohol

concentration requirements (see VicRoads on https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/safety-and-road-

ru les/ drive r -safety/you ng-a nd-new-d rive rs/victo ria s-gra d uated-I icens i ng-syste m ).

GDl conveys several road safety benefits: young drivers enter the independent driving phase at an

older age and so their cognitive development, particularly executive brain function, which is

important in decisions relevant to driving behaviour (Morris & Dawson, 2008; Sagerg & Bjornskau,

2006), is at a more advanced stage; learner drivers have had the opportunity to gain more driving

experience in a wider variety of situations while under supervision and in less risky conditions, which

reduces crash risk (Gregerson, et aI., 2000; Senserrick & Haworth, 2005; McCartt et aI., 2009;

Williams, 2000); the passage of time allows for young people to develop emotional maturity and

thus be less susceptible to factors that affect intentional risk taking behaviours, such as peer

influence, overconfidence, poor risk perception, or tolerance of breaking the road rules (De Craen,

Twisk, Hagenzieker, Elffers & Brookhuis, 2011; Delhomme & Meyer, 1998). In addition, as the

learner period of licensing generally occurs for most young people while they are still at school, the

issue of transport to and from employment is less relevant since they are not in full time

employment.

lowering the age of probationary driving will likely have detrimental effects on road safety, not least

of which is that the age of greatest risk of death or serious injury will be lowered by a proportionate

number of years. In New Zealand, where the learner/supervised period ends at 16.5 years and

supervised driving practice log books are not required, serious crash numbers and rates (per 10,000

drivers) peak for the 15-19 years age group. Additionally, crash figures demonstrated a 30% drop in

fatal crashes involving 15-19 year old drivers (from 12.1% in 2011 to 8.3% of all fatalities in 2012)

following the increase of the licencing age from 15 years to 16 years in 2011 . A similar level of

decrease was not evident in the fatalities for 20-24 year old cohorts 2011-2013 (see

http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/U p I oa ds/Resea rch/Docu m e nts/yo u ng-d rive rs-2015. pdf ).

Earlier studies conducted in the US (McCartt et ai, 2010) found that raising the licencing age resulted

in reductions in the fatal crash rate. Other studies have shown that those US jurisdictions that

permit younger licencing ages also have higher crash rates compared to those that have older

licensing ages (Williams, 2003).

learner drivers are statistically have the lowest crash rates . If the learner driver minimum age is

unchanged, then lowering the probationary driving age will likely result in a shorter period of time

spent on the learner licence, and less time learning under these safer conditions. Research evidence

from the US suggests that the most effective aspect of GDl is the extension of the learner period and

delaying the commencement of unsupervised driving (Preusser & Tison, 2007). Similarly, and closer

to home, research on learner drivers in New Zealand (Gulliver et ai, 2013) has shown that greater

time on the learner licence stage is associated with a reduced risk of crash involvement once driving

unsupervised. The lowering of the minimum learner age in Victoria in 1990 was found to be

associated with increased hours of practice before Provisional licencing (which remained at 18 years)

(Catchpole & Stevenson, 2001). Reviews of the literature have concluded that longer periods of time

on learner permits result in safety benefits (Senserrick & Haworth, 2005).

Evidence suggests that those young people who are likely to become licenced more quickly or earlier

are arguably the highest risk group. That is, they are more likely to be male, and live in areas that

are poorly served by public transport, particularly in rural areas. There is considerable evidence that

young males are a higher risk driving group and also that rural residents are at higher risk of road

crashes than urban residents. Moreover, crashes in rural areas tend to be of higher severity than

those in urban areas. Being of lower socio-economic status also appears to have a negative impact

on crash involvement (H. -Yo Chen, Ivers et aI., 2010; H. -Yo Chen, Senserrick, Martiniuk, et aI., 2010).

Arguably, those who are most likely to benefit from the improved mobility that results from a

lowering of the probationary licencing age are those in rural areas poorly served by public transport,

but are also those upon whom the highest burden of the increased crash risk from such a measure

will fall.

Are there benefits to lowering the probationary driving age in terms of mobility, social inclusion and

employment for young people? While this is not CARRS-Q's area of expertise, our reading of the

literature leads us to offer some points for consideration. Research from a national UK-government

funded survey suggests that around 40% of the jobseekers surveyed perceived lack of transport as a

barrier to getting a job, and around 20% indicate that the cost of transport is a problem for getting

to job interviews. Around 25% of the young people in the sample said that they had not applied for

a particular job in the previous 12 month period because of transport problems (Social Exclusion

Unit,2003). Older research, also from the UK, found a distinct advantage for young people with a

drivers' licence, who were twice as likely to be able to become employed (if already unemployed)

and spent less time unemployed, particularly for young women (Stafford et ai, 1999 cited in Aretun

& Nordbakke, 2014). However, the labour market for young people is thought to have changed

more recently, and become less linear and predictable, especially for those from lower socio­

economic or less advantaged backgrounds (Aretun & Norbakker, 2014).

A series of Australian studies have examined statistical trends as well as the views of young people in

relation to obtaining or holding a drivers' licence. Results from these suggest that the situation in

this country may be complex. Car ownership and independent driving were found to be associated

with higher levels of psychological autonomy and well-being, while conversely lack of transport is

associated with poor psychological well-being, in part due to the relationship of car

ownership/access with opportunity to engage in outside the home activities including employment,

social activities and service access (Delbosc & Vella-Brodrick, 2015). In addition, young regional

residents who participated in discussion groups about driving and licencing tended to regard holding

a driver's licence as essential (Delbosc & Currie, 2013). However, in another study of 200 young

metropolitan drivers and non-drivers (17-25 years), non-drivers were significantly more likely to

perceive that cars area big responsibility, that licensing restrictions were too difficult, and that other

transport modes met their needs, as well as to show less dependence on cars as a mode of

transport. Non-drivers indicated that they preferred to spend the money associated with car

ownership on other expenses, believing that they could get to where they needed to without driving

(Delbosc & Currie, 2014). This study also reported that full -time employment was associated with

higher licencing rates while part-time work or studying were associated with lower licensing rates.

Other findings include that, while young people are likely to perceive having a licence as facilitating

the move towards independent adulthood, their emphasis is more on the cultural or social aspects

of independence/adulthood rather than the economic ones (Delbosc & Currie, 2013; Hinchcliffe et

al.,2014). These findings suggest that for young people in urban areas, where public transport and

alternative methods of mobility are likely to be available, that there may be little advantage to

earlier independent driving.

The relationship between employment and licencing in young people also appears complex.

Consistent with trends in licencing in other industrialised countries, it appears that the rates of

licencing for those under 25 years old in Australia has declined (Delbosc & Currie, 2014). At the

same time, there is a general trend downwards in the proportion of young adults who are employed

on a full-time basis and a simultaneous increase in those employed part-time; a general delay in

young people moving out of home or choosing to start a family; and an increase in the tendency of

people aged 20-24 years to be enrolled in tertiary study (Delbosc & Currie, 2013; 2014). These

together suggest that real disposable incomes have likely declined for young people, a factor

associated with lower levels of licencing (Licaj et ai, 2012). While it may be possible that for some

young people, possession of a license and a car would allow them to accept employment, it does not

lead to the availability of full-time employment. Given the duration of the trend towards lower

levels of full-time employment among 18-24 year olds it seems more likely that lower levels of full

time employment have negatively affected licencing rather than the reverse, though this may not be

applicable to individual young people.

We would see the arguments of social exclusion or employment disadvantage for people in the age

group most affected by changes to the age of probationary licencing as not outweighing the safety

effects that would result. Therefore, based on the current research evidence, we would strongly

support retaining the current probationary licencing age in Victoria.

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