may 2015 volume 8 issue 5 what really wins money › wp-content › uploads › 2015 › 05 ›...

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Welcome to May’s What Really Wins Money. I begin this month with a look at the best football strategies I shared with you this football season, which is now coming to an end. The article is also a reminder to you that www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk is chock-full of useful information and articles, and is your one-stop-shop to explore past editions of the newsletter.

Continuing the footballing theme, I take a look at Profit Patterns. Prepare yourself for the 2016/2017 football season by getting to know the winning patterns of the major European teams.

Returning to the world of horse racing, I share with you a very interesting method for profiting from laying favourites. I call it the ‘3-5-8’ system. The Patriarch returns this month with a focus on horse racing trad-ing. It is a very interesting subject to cover and I am convinced that a profit is to be had. It is a skill like any. The Patriarch lays a good foundation.

The Statman turns his focus to the flat season and its unique draw bias and has, yet again, uncovered what looks like a highly promising backing and laying strat-egy for great long-term profits. How have the ‘Home-Grown’ systems performed for another month? I am pleasantly surprised. I also discuss some high-risk stak-

ing plans, as some of you are interested in faster profits, while acknowledging the greater risks.

Finally, the Systems and Tipsters Update rounds up recently released betting tipsters and systems. Do visit www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for more reviews.

With the football season coming to an end, what have we learned? Well, I’ve taken a look through all of the newsletters from August 2014 to date and share with you (or rather remind you because these strategies make money only if you use them of course) the best new football strategies which have been uncovered this season gone.

Lessons Learnt From This Season...In August 2014, I shared with you streaks and sequences and how to profit from them. Our old friend www.soccerstats.com has a list of the strongest stats and sequences. Please do use www.whatreallywins money.co.uk to access August’s newsletter if you want to view the full article. With streaks and sequences, we profit from finding new streaks to ride, and look to oppose long sequences. There are also what I call ‘con-textual’ sequences. Here’s an example...

The Finnish League has just started. HJK Helsinki already have two 1-1 draws in their first three matches of the new season. As a team likely to be vying for the title come the season end, this is a wasteful sequence which needs to end sharpish! Look to lay the draw in the next match. Indeed, the next match saw a 1-0 HJK Helsinki win.

A simple ‘contextual’ sequence: they are easy to spot and to profit from. Incidentally, Pattern Profits is another sequencing idea I share with you in an article in this month’s newsletter, and expand upon at the website.

In September 2014’s newsletter I introduced you to the Both Teams to Score profit maker. I offered a simple strategy for profiting from three specific markets...

» Both Teams to Score and Under/Over 2.5 Goals

What Really Wins MoneyAn Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems

May 2015 Volume 8 Issue 5

How to Turn Patterns, Trends and Stats Into Profit

INSIDE THIS ISSUE:FooTBAll TRAdIng:Profit Patterns for the 2015-16 Season ............. 2

hoRSe RAcIng STRATegy:3-5-8 your Way to lay Profits ............................ 4

The PATRIARch PReSenTS: An Introduction to horse Racing Trading ......... 5

The STATMAn PReSenTS: The draw Bias and how to Profit From it ......... 7

ReVIeWS:home-grown Systems Updates ....................... 11

ReVIeWS:Systems and Tipsters Update ........................... 14

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» Match Result and Both Teams to Score » First-half Both Teams to Score

Do make sure you re-acquaint yourself with this article because these markets offer odds which are higher than the traditional Both Teams to Score market. The strat-egy itself is simple to implement.

October 2014’s What Really Wins Money introduced you to the concept of Bankers or Blowouts, a concept which was turned into reality at www.whatreallywins money.co.uk in November 2014 and has profited hand-somely to date.

I also introduced you to two very good websites you should familiarise yourself with if you want your football betting to improve. These sites are www.soccer statstracker.com and www.click4soccer.com.

The first website offers free soccer stats software and is a must-have for those of you who, like me, swear by football statistics as your avenue to profits; www.click4soccer.com is an Italian-based website, whose English version is coming along. It’s another free resource. (Can’t complain about that!) There is plenty there for you to look at, including tips, probabilities for outcomes, and analysis.

In November 2014, I introduced you to a staking plan I called the ‘1-1-1-1’ staking plan. This staking plan pro-vides you with a four-point profit after its betting cycle is complete. I argued that this staking plan was excel-lent for some football markets, as it operates ideally in markets of only two outcomes. Examples include Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score yes/no. Other markets are featured in the full November 2014 article.

The next footballing strategy I shared with you came in the March 2015 newsletter, where we looked at how to find the strongest banker football bets based on two simple criteria I called ‘CS’ and ‘FS’ (clean sheets and failed to score). We want, basically, for the strong favourite in a banker bet to have the propensity to keep clean sheets, and for the underdog side to have trouble scoring goals. If you find these two elements in a football match, then the favourite tends to win a high proportion of the time.

Other distinctions this season? What is the one key distinction I made this season which skyrocketed my football profits?

In-play stats. This has to be the standout breakthrough for me this season. Finding a reliable in-play stats feed

which covers shots on/off target, corners, possession and red cards has enabled me to profit more consis-tently in-play, and enabled my live chatters at www.drt.club to benefit greatly too. Only this weekend, in-play stats enabled me to speculatively back a team at 18/1 and win, and lay a market at 1.05 and win (that’s the same as a 25/1 payout).

April’s What Really Wins Money featured excellent resources for finding in-play stats for major football leagues. You can find the information in the Systems and Tipsters Update.

Bottom line – There are two main reasons for writ-ing this article this month. Firstly I want to make you aware of the wealth of information that is available at your fingertips at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I hope I have showcased that here with the huge variety of football strategies covered in August 2014 to April 2015’s What Really Wins Money newsletters. These newsletters are available for you to read and peruse at the website.

The website also has an excellent search facility. For example, type in ‘correct score perms’ and the search engine at the site will bring up an excellent article on how you can profit big from correct score permutations in football matches.

Secondly I want you to think about a niche or two which you want to follow in this new football season. There is a wealth of ideas at What Really Wins Money. Select the one or two which resonate for you and follow them into the new football season. Email me if you want to discuss strategy or staking plans and I’ll be happy to help.

Now the major European leagues’ football seasons are coming to an end, I’d like to share with you a simple strategy which will prepare you for next season and highlight for you occasions when a foot-ball team has a much stronger chance of winning its match than usual.

FooTbaLL TraDINg:

Profit Patterns for the 2015-16 Season

I call this strategy Profit Patterns, or the Winless Five.Let me ask you a question: how long do you think the

big European teams will tolerate without a win? Before It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2015

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For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

you answer, let me define what a ‘big European team’ is. I am talking about Barcelona, Real Madrid, Paris St Germain, Olympiakos, Celtic, Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Benfica, Porto, PSV Eind-hoven, Ajax, Zenit St Petersburg, and Wolverhampton Wanderers (only kidding).

My contention is that these teams are under enormous pressure to nip any winless sequence in the bud. The magic number tends to be five. That is, these major teams tend not to go on a sequence of more than five winless matches.

I focus on major teams in major European Leagues. You can focus on any teams which pique your interest.

Let’s take a look at a number of teams. At www.soccer-stats.com, choose your league and team of interest. In the screenshot below, I have chosen Manchester City. What is the longest winless sequence Manchester City suffered this 2014/2015 season?

If you look between 10 January 2015 and 7 Febru-ary 2015, you will see that Manchester City went four matches without a win. They won their very next match, which was away from home to Stoke City.

Space restrictions prohibit me from showing you the results table for other teams. Here, though, is a list of the longest winless sequences for a number of other major European teams:

Arsenal – Arsenal’s longest winless sequence was three matches last season and that occurred on two separate occasions. They won their very next matches, both away from home to Aston Villa and Sunderland.

Manchester United – Manchester United’s longest winless sequences this season were also three matches, and these occurred on four occasions. Most recently

they ended a run of defeats to Chelsea, Everton and West Brom, with a hard fought 1-2 win away to Crystal Palace.

Liverpool – Liverpool’s longest winless sequence this season was four matches, and that occurred only once. They won their next match against Stoke 1-0.

Bayern Munich – As we look at the major European teams, their tolerance level to a winless sequence is very low indeed. Bayern Munich’s longest winless sequence was two matches. Now please note here that Bayern Munich tend to throw in the towel once they have won the Bundesliga. Their current run of two defeats must be taken in that context.

In the Spanish La Liga, Barcelona and Real Madrid are equally as intolerant of winless sequences, their maximum being two. Atletico Madrid’s longest win-less sequence was three matches this season.

In the French Ligue 1, Paris St Germain and Lyon could only tolerate a winless sequence of three matches before returning quickly to winning ways.

In the Dutch Eredivisie, PSV Eindhoven were the exception to the rule, with only a one-match winless run. Ajax only went three matches maximum without a win, and for Feyenoord it was five matches.

In the Portuguese Primera Liga the longest winless sequence amongst the top four teams was three matches.

If you want to see a longer trend of matches, then go to www.soccerway.com. This website can also isolate winless sequences by home or away matches.

Patterns Into Profit...There are a number of ways to profit from knowing the ‘tolerance’ of certain teams to a winless sequence. Here are a few ideas you can implement in the new 2016/2017 football season (after the poor luvvies have come back from their holidays in the Bahamas).

1. Focus on the tighter tolerance levels. As you read above, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich only went two matches without a win at the most this season. Get ready to pounce if that occurs again. The odds are likely to be short and this could form the basis of a ‘banker bet’ type of strategy.

2. Look for multiple teams across the leagues to all be on a significant winless sequence at one time. Put their next matches into an accumulator. What I will do for you at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk this new football season is to write up a ‘Profit Pat-tern Watch’, which will highlight winless sequences for you. I will actually begin with the summer season leagues as a trial and see how we get on. So make sure you check out the website posting for

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more details.3. If the winless sequence has seen the top-scoring

attacker fail to score, consider backing a win and top scorer to score bet. You may even want to include a score cast. For example, Manchester City had a four-match winless sequence. That ended with a win and Sergio Aguero scoring the first goal. Aguero failed to score in that four-match winless sequence.

Bottom line – I would urge you to get to know the top three or four teams in each major European league and their tolerance to a winless sequence.You will have on your side the dominant teams in each league; dominant because they tend to win. Any win-less sequence is doubly detrimental to them and will help highlight for you strong betting opportunities. Watch out for my Profit Pattern Watch at www. whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I’ll highlight patterns I think we can profit from.

HorSE racINg STraTEgy:

3-5-8 your Way to Lay Profits

I like to take the probability-based approach to horse racing.

With this 3-5-8 system, I have assumed that the con-ventional thinking that only 33% of favourites win their races is accurate. Therefore, 66% of favourites don’t win their races in the long term.So, where are we most likely to make our money with favourites? By backing them (only 33% win), or by laying them (66% don’t win)?It is laying that appeals in this case, isn’t it? My next step was to look at laying the favourites in three sepa-rate races. The idea here was to try and end winning sequences (so harmful to the layer). How were these three races chosen? By race number, that’s how: ‘3-5-8’ refers to the third, fifth and eighth race of the day on any given race card at www.racingpost.com for UK and Irish racing (I have kept track of UK-only racing too, but for this introductory article, I’ll focus on the simpler UK/Irish racing). Why did I choose these specific races? I did so in response to a system creator putting forward a backing system which he said profited by selecting the favou-rites in the third, fifth and eighth races of the day!Here’s how to find selections. It is easy, as you will see. Go to www.racingpost.com. Click on Cards > Today’s Cards. You have two options: one is to group races by meeting; the other is to order all races by time.

Choose the latter. Here’s an example below:

Note I have chosen ‘order all races by time’. I now select the third, fifth and eighth races of the day. In this case, the third race is the 2.30pm Kempton, fifth race is 2.50pm Newcastle, and eighth race is 3.25pm New-castle.

We simply lay the favourite. We do not lay in races with joint favourites. Why? Logic again. Laying two horses in a single race doubles your chance of covering the winner!

I have been keeping track of these results for a while now and there is promise. This is why I wanted to share this lay strategy with you.

The Staking Plan...The backbone to any good selection strategy is to find a specific staking plan which fits that strategy. I disagree with those who trumpet their apparent truism that if a system cannot profit to level stakes, it will not profit long term with other staking plans.

The reason there are staking plans other than level stakes is precisely because no two betting systems are the same, and some are better suited to certain money management approaches than others – because of a dif-fering strike rate, or differing average odds. 3-5-8 is a case in point.

The basic Lay Ladder...I have mentioned this lay ladder in the past and am drawn to it simply because this lay ladder is made for a run of three bets. What do we have with the 3-5-8 system? We have three bets only. The staking plan is featured at www.thestakingmachine.com, which, as you can appreciate for someone in my position, is an invaluable tool.

It works like this: we have three lay bets; we look to win a target profit on each race. Let’s make it £10 in this case. For ease of illustration, we will be laying horses priced at evens (2.00 in decimal odds) and not factor in 5% Betfair commission.

Here’s the calculation for you:



In this instance 1=win and 2=loss in the ‘WinLose’ column.

» Horse 1 is at evens or 2.00 decimal odds. We want to win £10. The horse wins. We lose our £10 stake.

» Horse 2 is also at evens or 2.00 decimal odds. We want to win £10 + £10 lost stake from Horse 1. The horse wins. We lose our £20 stake.

» Horse 3 is also at evens or 2.00 decimal odds. We want to win £10 lost stake from Horse 1 + £20 lost stake from Horse 2, as well as our target profit of £10. The stake for Horse 3 is £40. The horse loses its race. We win back £40 and are in profit.

From 28 September 2014 to 31 December 2014, a £100 betting bank and a target of £10 has become £1,034.02.

This is an exciting return but I’ll put the brakes on quickly before you get overexcited. This is a high-risk staking plan. With high-risk staking plans, we get the potential of quick profits, but the falls can be equally as quick.

Accept this and you can apply some of these higher-risk elements to your betting portfolio.

There will be losing periods as this graph shows:

The quandary you have is whether to hope you can get on a winning run straight away, rather than be in a negative loss-chasing position.

Bottom line – This staking plan is worthy of your consideration. Additionally, this basic lay ladder I am sure can be applied to football, even greyhound racing (I have noticed how many favourites lose in greyhound racing, but do acknowledge that greyhound racing on Betfair can often show illiquid betting markets). In fact, apply it to any betting cycle of three bets, preferably on favourites.

As I add to the results I hope to be able to show, month-by-month, that this is a robust, good-profiting strategy. I’ll certainly update you next month. There is another staking plan which is equally as exciting as this basic lay ladder, but it came one bet away from obliterating the betting bank. If this secondary staking plan contin-ues to profit, I will reveal it to you next month.

THE PaTrIarcH PrESENTS:

an Introduction to Horse racing Trading...

Buy low and sell higher – that’s been the mantra for trade and commerce throughout the ages, and it’s

something that is now widely used in betting since the arrival of betting exchanges. I realise that I am trespass-ing somewhat on Clive’s ground here, but I have some simple and profitable advice for those who may not be so well versed in the world of trading. I’m going to restrict myself to betting on horse racing only. What I’m going to suggest won’t make you a fortune, but should make small, regular profits, and minimal losses.

The buying and selling, of course, refers to laying and backing. Putting it simply, we want to lay a horse at smaller odds than the odds we back it at. We don’t need a huge difference in odds to make a profit; even the small differences we see every day can give us our profit if we are prepared to accept small but frequent gains. You can either back first or lay first, depending on circumstances – which I’ll come to later, but here is a simple little example that happens every day...

You back a horse at decimal odds of 4, or 3-1 with a £10 stake. You wait and if the odds shorten by even a single point to decimal odds of 3, or 2-1, you lay it with a stake of £13. You can now sit back knowing that already you’ve made your small profit. If the horse wins you gain £30 but lose £26 on the lay bet: a small profit of £4. If the horse doesn’t win you lose your £10 bet but make £13 on the lay one: a profit of £3.

These small profits can be made every day and you can appreciate that if the lay price shortens further then the profits will be correspondingly greater. But, I hear you ask, what happens if the odds don’t shorten? You have to be alert for that happening and when you see or sense it, you step in quickly and lay at your original odds, or even slightly higher, which will result in no profit or a very small loss.

Now comes the question: when do we do all this, and do we back first or lay first? Here’s what I do... I like to look at the Betfair odds sometime in the forenoon. If I see a horse that I feel, for whatever reason, should be at shorter odds, then I’ll back it there and then. If I think the odds should be longer, then I’ll lay it. Here are some things to look out for: if a horse is being widely tipped and napped by all the newspaper tipsters, then you can be pretty sure that the betting public will follow suit and back it, so its price is going to reduce. That’s why we back it now; and if you can see early enough that Pricewise in the Racing Post is advising it, then you can be almost certain that its price will fall

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rapidly, so we get in and back it. (If you want to get Pricewise information early, consider a subscription to the Racing Post digital newspaper which is usually available to read early morning before it appears in the newsagents.)

On the other hand, if a quietly-fancied horse comes from a smaller, lesser-known but gambling stable, then the chances are that the stable money is already on and nothing much further is going to attract attention to it, so the price will drift. Therefore, you lay that one in the expectation of getting higher odds to back at later on. There are various sites that give you the day’s ‘steam-ers’ – horses whose odds are shortening: Paddy Power, Sporting Life, At The Races and Betfair itself, and if you are quick enough you can back them and then profit from them when the prices shorten still further and you lay them.

Earlier, I gave an example of backing at 4 with a £10 stake and laying with £13 at 3, giving a profit of either £4 or £3. Now, to make things simple, I’ll give a full chart of the backing odds from 3 to 13 and the laying odds required to give the guaranteed winnings that I’ll show.

With our imagined stakes of £10 and £13, the winnings, when the horse loses, will always be £3, the difference between the stakes; but when the horse wins, the win-nings will vary.

Remember too that if you can get lower odds to lay at than the ones I’ve given, then you will win more than what I’ve said if the horse wins. And the odds are all in decimal form. I’ll give the profit in points, not pounds.

BACKING ODDS LAYING ODDS PROFIT3 2 7 OR 3

4 3 4 OR 3

5 3.5 7.5 OR 3

6 4.5 4.5 OR 3

7 5 8 OR 3

8 6 5 OR 3

9 6.5 8.5 OR 3

10 7.5 5.5 OR 3

11 8 9 OR 3

12 9 6 OR 3

13 10 3 OR 3

Sometimes these win-win situations arise, even when you’re not looking for them. The other day there was a race with two horses at the head of the market and I fancied them both. About 15 minutes before the race I looked at their odds and they were 3.2 and 3.4. I was happy to back them both at these odds. I left the screen and came back just before the race started. They were now 2.1 and 2.2. At these odds I could have placed two lay bets in the one race and won on both. I didn’t do it.

Fortunately, one of my two did win, but just imagine if they’d both been beaten and the opportunity missed of collecting on both of them.

Finally, I must just mention the possibility of backing and laying during the race, but that’s very much another story that will have to wait.

Editor’s note: Thanks to the Statman for that basic introduction into the world of trading via www.betfair.com. With any article which gives a mention to sports trading and the betting exchanges, I always like to refer readers to the Betfair Learning Zone, which is a perfect stopping point for you to discover how to trade, the relationship between back and lay odds, and some of the terminology.

The site can be found here at http://learning.betfair.com/en/ or by using Google and typing ‘what is sports trading Betfair?’

The Patriarch made mention of ‘steamers’ and ‘drift-ers’ in his article. A ‘steamer’ is a horse whose odds are shortening, either throughout the day or just before the race is about to be run. With steamers, we trade by backing the horse first, and laying the horse later at lower odds. A ‘drifter’ is a horse whose odds are drift-ing. With drifters, we lay the horse first, and then back the horse at higher odds later.

The general consensus amongst horse racing traders is to focus on the first three horses in the betting. This is more for practical reasons than anything else. The first three horses are usually the most liquid horses in the betting market.

That said, if you back a horse first with a view to laying later on, the price is not necessarily a factor. But if you are laying a horse first to back later, price is very much a factor, as we have the liability issue.

Resources for steamers and drifters – Here are some websites which provide you with reports on steamers and drifters:

» http://www.oddschecker.com/stats/market-reports/horse-racing. This website provides a table for steamers and drifters which tells you the best original odds, best current odds, the number of bookmakers with whom the horse has shortened or lengthened in price, and the average market share swing.

» www.attheraces.com. At this website, under ‘Market Movers’, you can see the top 10 steamers and top 10 drifters, but do note those horses with a ‘*’, as they are horses whose odds have been affected by a non-runner in their race.

» The Betfair Price Graph. Another method of finding a horse whose odds may shorten (steam) or lengthen (drift) is to take a look at the Betfair Price


For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatreallyWinsMoney.co.uk

Graph, particularly at horses at the head of the market. As the Patriarch hints, look at around 11.00 a.m. to 12.00 p.m. and see if you can spot a trend.

By bringing up a horse race of interest, you’ll see a small graph next to the horse’s name. Here’s what you’ll find:

In order to limit your workload, check only the two or three horses at the head of the market. This graph is the price/volume graph and is probably a good graph with which to back this horse with a view to trading. Why? Well, this horse’s odds have hit the 8 mark on two occa-sions before bouncing off. If the odds hit 8 again, back the horse in the hope the odds will ‘bounce off’ the 8 again and shorten.

This is called using ‘support and resistance’ lines and is something which should be familiar with those who have dabbled in chart reading in financial markets.

This is a big subject and is perhaps something I will investigate further personally, particularly with the reading of Betfair graphs in order to provide trading candidates. Look out for this in future articles here at What Really Wins Money.

Further resources – As ever, the Betfair learning zone is an excellent starting point if you want to gather a foundation of knowledge on horse racing trading: https://betting.betfair.com/cold-trading-on-betfair.html focuses specifically on pre-race trading; https://sites.google.com/site/sportztrade/pre-race-trading is a really excellent free resource for you, giving you some ideas from a current horse racing trader; http://www.ukfoot balltrading.com/trading-horses-on-betfair-before-the-off provides you with a horse racing trading strategy akin to the Patriarch’s, where we seek to find horses likely to attract the attention of the punting public because they are heavily tipped.

I could go on and on (and usually do – the

Publisher). Before I go, I would highly recommend a visit to www.youtube.com. Look for videos such as this one by ‘The Badger’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVbEUtsi0oA. This video shows you a method of trading horses pre-race through support and resistance.

So, plenty for you to mull over. Trading horses pre-race does require software if you want to do it in an efficient manner. To trade without software on www.betfair.com is simply to make your life difficult. In order to take action, I would recommend that you look initially for favourites in the Racing Post forecast and other web-sites such as www.sportinglife.com and www.timeform.com, which have been very favourably mentioned. Take a note of the odds prices at about midday, and see what the odds are pre-race.

It will be a good exercise in getting started. As I said earlier, horse racing trading is something I want to pursue further on your behalf. I hope the Patriarch’s article and the additional resources make horse racing trading a skill you’d like to acquire. As with financial trading, there are many approaches. The key is to find that niche which fits in with your personality.

THE STaTMaN PrESENTS:

The Draw bias and How to Profit From it

As I write this, the Jumps season has finished (and then started again!), A.P. McCoy has retired, and

we have already run the first two classics with victories for Gleneagles and Legatissimo at Newmarket over the straight mile. To be brutally honest, I have never been a big follower of the draw on the Flat, but by request I have given in (surrendered maybe) and decided to have a closer statistical look at exactly what happens at each track, whether there is profit to be made, and if we can refine it a little bit further to make it a lot easier to handle?

Most people will be fully aware of the draw bias at some tracks. (You have to be drawn low at Chester as a great example.) My concept this month is to go against the grain, look for statistical patterns (be that back or lay or both) at every Flat racing track and record the most profitable aspects for us all to use over the months ahead – so let’s go to work!

Rules – Last 10 years not including 2015, i.e. 2005 to 2014 inclusive. All distances are included (I suspect there are better percentages to be made from the shorter trips [5 furlongs to 7 furlongs for instance] but we do not have enough room this month to dig that deep, so we will settle for the general concept). UK racing only. April to November only. Turf and All-Weather but NOT

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Chelmsford due to insufficient data. Flat only (no Jumps including bumpers). £1 stakes recorded to Industry Starting Price (SP) and to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) after standard 5% commission.

Listed in course order – Only the most profitable aspects will be recorded to keep a sensible set of figures: most profitable draw to back and most unprofitable draw to lay. In the tables below ‘R.O.I’ means ‘return on investment’; ‘P/L’ means ‘profit/loss’; and ‘I.P.’ means ‘industry prices’.

Ascot:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I.Betfair SP

P/L to I.P R.O.I to Industry SP

Back 11 492 35 7.11% +£218.23 +44.36% +£10.85 +2.21%

Lay 4 965 91 9.43% -£258.88 -26.83% -£367.26 -38.06%

So, if you backed every horse who raced from the 11 stall at Ascot and laid every horse from the 4 stall over the past 10 years, your total profit after standard 5% Betfair reductions would be £477.11 to £1 stakes – nice work if you can get it.

Ayr:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 11 390 30 7.69% +£207.90 +53.31% +£22.50 +5.77%

Lay 5 1,093 110 10.06% -£253.26 -23.17% -£376.07 -34.41%

Back stall 11 and lay stall 5 for a total profit of £461.16.

Bath:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 8 909 91 10.01% +£217.38 +23.91% -£209.58 -23.06%

Lay 1 1,364 145 10.63% -£357.82 -26.23% -£510.15 -37.40%


Beverley:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 7 1,135 124 10.93% +£160.43 +14.14% -£71.79 -6.33%

Lay 3 1,349 145 10.75% -£358.94 -26.61% -£499.37 -37.02%


Brighton:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 14 137 8 5.84% +£195.83 +142.9% +£31.50 +22.99%

Lay 2 1,380 174 12.61% -£329.25 -23.86% -£459.90 -33.33%


Carlisle:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 2 657 81 12.33% +£246.37 +37.50% -£20.05 -3.05%

Lay 4 654 58 8.87% -£118.03 -18.05% -£210.94 -32.25%


Catterick:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 10 674 48 7.12% +£156.68 +23.25% -£156.64 -23.24%

Lay 9 829 57 6.88% -£208.23 -25.12% -£352.25 -42.49%


Chepstow:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 1 831 105 12.64% +£715.64 +86.12% +£54.25 +6.53%

Lay 9 533 38 7.13% -£252.37 -47.35% -£284.80 -53.43%


Chester:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 1 890 171 19.21% +£146.22 +16.43% +£45.12 +5.07%

Lay 5 855 76 8.89 -£305.59 -35.74% -£391.98 -45.85%


Doncaster:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 15 271 23 8.49% +£549.38 +202.72% +£131.50 +48.52

Lay 6 1176 112 9.52% -£319.78 -27.19% -£439.98 -37.41%

Back stall 15 and lay stall 6 for a total profit of £869.16

Epsom:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 9 314 34 10.83% +£99.49 +31.69% +£34.33 +10.93%

Lay 4 651 66 10.14% -£144.60 -22.21% -£214.19 -32.90%


Ffos Las:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 7 168 22 13.10% +£845.27 +503.13% +£104.85 +62.41%

Lay 3 292 42 14.38% -£45.24 -15.49% -£81.12 -27.78%




Goodwood:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 1 1,426 180 12.62% +£159.57 +11.19% -£93.82 -6.58%

Lay 10 753 45 5.98% -£281.21 -37.35% -£360.55 -47.88%


Hamilton:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 1 1,171 173 14.77% +£166.19 +14.19% -£154.01 -13.15%

Lay 7 859 94 10.94% -£251.22 -29.25% -£318.01 -37.02%


Haydock:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 7 1,201 128 10.66% +£269.79 22.46% -£52.90 -4.40%

Lay 2 1,430 136 9.51% -£400.56 -28.01% -£562.98 -39.37%


Kempton:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 16 14 2 14.29% +£49.56 +354.00% +£41.00 +292.86%

Lay 1 3,391 349 10.29% -£554.65 -16.36% -£1,075.81 -31.73%


Leicester:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 1 1,320 173 13.11% +£214.25 +16.23% -£143.56 -10.88%

Lay 6 1,170 112 9.57% -£313.38 -27.21% -£448.81 -38.36%


Lingfield:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 12 1,061 82 7.73% +£206.37 +19.45% -£153.61 -14.48%

Lay 2 3,328 326 9.80% -£918.51 -27.60% -£1,303.25 -39.16%


Musselburgh:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 9 618 63 10.19% +£269.74 +43.65% +£26.63 +4.31%

Lay 6 1,031 98 9.51% -£167.98 -16.29% -£289.48 -28.08%


Newbury:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 8 1,093 108 9.88% +£582.41 +53.29% +£21.29 +1.95%

Lay 9 974 59 6.06% -£341.62 -35.07% -£514.94 -52.87%


Newcastle:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 4 1,148 132 11.50% +£264.37 +23.03% -£71.77 -6.25%

Lay 6 1,082 106 9.80% -£269.95 -24.95% -£366.57 -33.88%


Newmarket – note both Newmarket courses are com-bined by the software:

Draw Run-ners

Win-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 3 2,749 328 11.93% +£253.40 +9.22% -£248.12 -9.03%

Lay 8 2,109 172 8.16% -£280.84 -13.32% -£666.62 -31.61%


Nottingham:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 8 1,090 108 9.91% +£488.60 +44.83% +£55.01 +5.05%

Lay 5 1,337 138 10.32% -£245.04 -18.33% -£422.47 -31.60%


Pontefract:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 3 1,072 143 13.34% +£1033.07 +96.37% +£165.21 +15.41%

Lay 9 675 40 5.93% -£193.63 -28.69% -£306.31 -45.38%

Back stall 3 and lay stall 9 for a total profit of £1,226.70.

Redcar:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 7 1,103 94 8.52% +£839.37 76.10% -£273.14 -24.76%

Lay 5 1,206 117 9.70% -£273.13 -22.65% -£416.86 -34.57%


Ripon:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 6 906 99 10.93% +£187.07 +20.65% -£107.40 -11.85%

Lay 10 486 36 7.41% -£143.89 -29.61% -£202.27 -41.62%


10

Salisbury:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Betfair SP


Back 1 1,029 117 11.37% +£1,057.87 +102.81% -£38.81 -3.77%

Lay 5 986 108 10.95% -£247.90 -25.14% -£354.50 -35.95%


Sandown:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 13 193 14 7.25% +£166.82 +87.47% +£2.10 +1.09%

Lay 6 1,026 106 10.33% -£275.46 -26.85% -£368.93 -35.96%


Southwell:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 5 1,462 176 12.04% +£429.29 +29.38% -£111.41 -7.62%

Lay 11 659 48 7.28% -£268.73 -40.78% -£315.69 -47.90%


Thirsk:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 8 835 70 8.38% +£104.42 +12.51% -£124.99 -14.97%

Lay 1 992 78 7.86% -£397.71 -40.09% -£490.75 -49.47%


Warwick:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 4 765 100 13.07% +£502.80 +65.73% +£391.70 +11.99%

Lay 7 655 53 8.09% -£238.95 -36.48% -£299.96 -45.80%


Windsor:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 7 1,449 158 10.90% +£273.41 +18.87% -£102.21 -7.05%

Lay 5 1,619 160 9.88% -£335.76 -20.74% -£552.96 -34.15%


Wolverhampton:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 4 3,907 452 11.57% +£458.53 +11.74% -£504.66 -12.92%

Lay 1 3,916 417 10.65% -£848.04 -21.66% -£1,315.27 -33.59%


Yarmouth:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 2 1,594 217 13.61% +£885.29 +55.54% +£175.81 +11.03%

Lay 4 1,579 195 12.35% -£261.07 -16.53% -£428.85 -27.16%


York:Draw Run-

nersWin-ners

Strike rate

P/L to Betfair SP

R.O.I. Bet-fair SP


Back 14 389 23 5.91% +£188.89 +48.56% -£27.50 -7.07%

Lay 11 610 34 5.57% -£273.90 -44.90% -£321.48 -52.70%

Back stall 14 and Lay stall 11 for a total profit of £462.79.

Total back profits to £1 stakes are £12,809.90 – or to £10 stakes, a massive £128,099 in just 10 years!

Total lay profits to Betfair SP to £1 stakes are £10,735.12 – or to £10 stakes, £107,351.20 over the 10-year period.

Adding the back and lay profits together, there’s a total profit of £23,545.02 to £1 stakes – or £235,450.20 to £10 stakes.

Method:1. Look for any meeting on the Flat on any given day.2. Check the meeting name against the list above. 3. Back or lay (or both) the appropriate stall numbers

as listed, but always at Betfair Starting Price (Bet-fair SP). For an in-depth look at Betfair SP, please visit https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_the-Basics.html.

4. In some races the draw number you wish to back or lay will not have a runner, invariably due to the field size – if that is the case, ignore the race.

5. Collect your money!Please note – statistics provide a long-term view looking backward over the last 10 years – they are hopefully of interest for your future betting, but no one can guaran-tee the past results will be repeated. Even if they are, punters also need to be looking long term. You will note from the strike rates of around the 10% mark that we are looking at one winner in 10, i.e. long losing runs can be expected BUT very good profits would have been made in the past – FACT (as experienced punter David Brent would say). Back over to Clive...

Additional resources – (Thanks, Statman!) If you would like to look further into the draw bias during this turf Flat season, then please take a look at a website whose specialty is the draw bias. That website’s name is, erm, www.drawbias.com. Additionally, https://www.



flatstats.co.uk/draw-stats.php provides an analysis page of draw stats at various race courses over a variety of variables, which include:

» Distance » Ground » Age of horse » Race type

rEvIEWS:

Home-grown Systems Updates...Banker Bets – The football season proper is coming to an end and it becomes a very difficult period in which to choose football banker bets, as I do in my Bankers or Blowouts section at www. whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. A banker bet, to remind you, is the best bet of the day: the bet you’d bank on above all others. These bets are naturally at odds of around 1.5 or lower.With the major European leagues coming to an end, from a football perspective, it is a bit of a horror show at the moment. Romanian, Latvian, and Finnish foot-ball take over from the ever-reliable Bundesliga, Seria A and the Premiership. Yikes.I started my banker bets for What Really Wins Money readers at the website on 18 November and, to date, a 27-point level-stakes profit has accrued. The strike rate is currently 87.3%, which has dipped from the idealised 88% strike rate I seek.I shared with you an excellent alternative to level stakes last month, and will remind you of it here, as it will enhance all of your level stakes betting systems. It is simplicity itself...Instead of betting, say, 10% of the initial betting bank (for instance £100 would see a constant stake of £10 throughout), why don’t we re-calculate our new 10% stake with the new betting bank as it stands after every 20 bets? Instead of just £10 stakes throughout, our stakes will increase every 20 bets in alignment with the growing betting bank. Here’s an example of this staking plan in action...

» The first 20 bets saw our stake at £10 of a £100 betting bank.

» The bank after 20 bets became £124.30. Our new stake is £12.43.

» The bank after 40 bets became £150. Our new stake is £15.

» The bank after 60 bets became £178. Our new stake is what? Yes, £17.80.

And so it goes on. Hey presto! A 27-point profit now

becomes 86 points! Risk is, relatively speaking, the same.I prefer this kind of staking plan to the one recom-mended by www.soccerstreaks.co.uk (Gawd love ’em), who recommended a 33%-of-betting-bank staking plan – so get three bets in a row wrong and it’s ‘sayonara’.With the football taking a dip in quality, I will be resur-recting my One-a-Day betting exclusively for you at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. With One-a-Day betting I look for that one killer bet in the football, tennis, or horse racing Place-Only markets (and any-where else one might be lurking). Do look out for my One-a-Day postings at the website. Two-Horse Race Placers – Two consecutive years of very good profits using this strategy. Selections are available for you at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. What you’ll see is something like this: ‘7 120 Chelms-ford Betting Forecast: 5/6 Zamoura, 100/30 Pin Up, 6/1 Duchess Of Marmite’. The ‘7’ at the beginning tells us the number of runners. In this case the Place-Only market pays out for two places only. The Betting Fore-cast comes from www.racingpost.com and the informa-tion is freely available.Back the live market favourite in the Place-Only market at www.betfair.com, as long as the Place-Only odds fall between 1.1 and 1.5.A 10-point profit so far this year is welcome. As occurred in the profitable years of 2013 and 2014, January to April was very laboured. It is when the Flat season gets up and running that the Two-Horse Race Placers has traditionally got up and running. I did share some riskier staking plans with you last newsletter (the profits above are to simple 10% of the initial betting bank – i.e. if the bank was £100, then your stake throughout would have always remained £10).What of the ‘Pro’ staking plan (see http://www.thestak-ingmachine.com/pro.php)? It made a cracking £5,374 from a £100 starting bank in 2013, and 2014 saw a profit of £2,177. 2015 sees the bank rise to £1,151.26, but note that the betting bank did dip below the original £100 fleetingly.How about our newfound staking plan, as presented with the football Banker Bets? If we look to increase our stake to 10% of the new betting bank every 20 bets, then 2013 saw the profit increase to 479 points with final stakes at £469. In 2014, the betting bank increased to 81 points profit. The bank is currently 10 points in profit using this staking. I like Two-Horse Race Placers and from the feedback I receive by email and at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, so do a lot of you.

Laying the top weight in handicaps at All-Weather meetings – Lay the singular top weight in handicap

12

races at All-Weather-only meetings (I do include Chelmsford). One caveat: lay any selection as long as their odds are below 10 decimal in www.betfair.com’s lay column.

A 104-point profit for 2014 is excellent, considering this is such a simple strategy. The profit was made using level stakes laying, i.e. looking to win £10 per bet. In 2015 we are running at a loss of £138.50 to an initial starting bank of £100. I am happy to stick this one out given the exceptional return from last year.

As an aside, a reader thinking outside the box informed me that these handicap top weights on the All-Weather could be useful for backing rather than laying! So, I did some investigating. Let’s see if there was a profit to be made backing handicap top weights last year...

Backing these selections in 2014 to level stakes pro-duced a hideous loss. There were some high-priced winners, so let’s see if a profit was made by filtering selections by odds. Below is a list of 2014 profits from backing selections at or over certain odds. These results are to level stakes only:

» Over 5.00 decimal odds. 10 points loss. Longest losing sequence of 36.

» Over 6.00 decimal odds. 2.7 point loss. Longest losing sequence of 40.

» Over 7.00 decimal odds. 15 point loss. Longest losing sequence of 48.

» Over 8.00 decimal odds. 25.5 points profit. Longest losing sequence of 43.

» Over 9.00 decimal odds. 32 points profit. Longest losing sequence of 47.



» Profit on over 12 and over 13.00 decimal odds. 50 points profit. Longest losing sequence of 34

» There are still profits to be made but they drop markedly for odds of 14 and over.

This is interesting. Over 10.00 decimal odds produced an excellent profit in 2014. But hold on, folks: are you willing to take a 40-bet losing sequence? It reminds me of the arguments for and against ‘value’-based tipsters.Your betting bank would have to be very robust indeed to pursue this apparently profitable avenue.We are only five months into 2015, but the signs are promising from a backing perspective. Over 5.00 deci-mal odds sees a 70-point profit; over 6.00 decimal odds sees a 65-point profit; over 7.00 decimal odds sees a 61-point profit; over 8.00 decimal odds sees a 45-point profit; over 9.00 decimal odds sees a 48-point profit; and over 10.00 decimal odds sees a 32-point profit.

You get the idea. As a backing system, handicap top weights at high odds only seems to engender a profit. The negative is the long losing runs, in all cases. If the end of 2015 shows a profit as a backing strategy, then we will have two years of results and enough for me to get a wee bit excited. I still cannot ignore the significant profits in 2014 as a lay strategy either.Irish Bumpers – Laying the favourite in NH Flat races in Ireland only was a profitable strategy in 2014. This strategy made 41 points profit, but the profit graph is not as encouraging as the two preceding strategies:

In this case, the beginning of 2014 right through the summer produced some excellent results for the layers. The system then plodded from thereon in.

2015 sees a 10-point level stakes profit to date, not helped by an unusually high odds winner recently at 5.9 decimal odds. For the simplicity of the system though, I am very happy with the near half-year profit figure in 2015.

A higher-risk alternative? How about the 1–4 lay stak-ing plan again, which made a 113-point profit, nearly tripling the level stakes profit. This staking plan has produced a current 24.6-point profit for 2015, compared to a level stake profit of 10 points. This strategy is simple to implement and currently working. I’ll con-tinue to monitor.

The worst-performing favourites on the All-Weather – We focus on All-Weather race meetings. Below you’ll see two All-Weather meetings: Lingfield (AW) and Wolverhampton (AW). Guess what the ‘AW’ stands for? Your next job is to click on the ‘FAVOURITES’ link, and take note of the race types with the smallest percentage of favourites winning. In the case of Ling-field below, which race type has the smallest percentage of winning favourites?

If you answered ‘2yo HANDICAP with 29%’, then you’d be right. Your next step is to note the race times



for any qualifying races. A ‘2 yo (year old) HANDI-CAP’ is also known as a ‘nursery handicap’. On this particular day, there are no nursery handicaps and therefore no qualifying bets.

When you do find a bet, you become a backer rather than a layer. Yes, I know: you’d have thought that laying favourites in the worse-performing races for favourites on the All-Weather would profit well. It doesn’t, as you’ll see below!

Simply backing the favourite in these qualifying races this year would have produced a 63-point profit which is excellent. Whether it has the consistency to profit again in 2015 we’re yet to find out.

How would you like to see a profit graph like the one below?

It looks excellent, doesn’t it? And what if I told you that I could turn £100 into £1,093 with maximum stake of £27.50 and minimum stake of £10, would that interest you? It certainly piqued my interest.

This is what I look for from a betting system: a steady upwards profit and that the maximum stake is very rea-sonable. This staking plan is called ‘Rolling Doubles’ and a discussion on the plan can be found at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/rolling_doubles.php.

Rolling Doubles is a high-risk strategy in and of itself. So far in 2015, using Rolling Doubles turned a £100 into £532.95, betting to 20% of the bank. The hope is that there will be enough winning favourites over the year, in these races, to ensure another profit.

Higher-risk staking plans? A 129-point profit last year and 37-point profit so far in 2015 augurs well for this loss-retrieval plan, which is called ‘The Bookies Bank’ (a full explanation of which can be found at http://www.thestakingmachine.com/bookiesbank.php). A recent 7/1 winner on 11 May 2015, I must say, did help matters considerably. The strike rate remains at exactly 33% and the longest losing sequence has been 12 bets to date. I remain happy with performance and will con-tinue to update for you monthly.

Maidens, claimers and selling stakes races at All-Weather venues – This betting strategy is easy. At All-Weather ‘(AW)’ venues, take a note of all maiden, claiming stakes and selling stakes races. I do include Chelmsford now, despite it being a brand-new All-Weather venue (and thus missing historical data). Put

them in time order, and lay the favourites.

A 72-point profit has accrued just laying each favourite to level stakes. Nice, simple, profitable. In 2015, the level stakes profit is 11 points to date.

If you want to limit your risk to a tenner, for example, you’ll have still made 63 points profit in 2014 using fixed liability laying. A 31-point profit so far in 2015. When you lay favourites to a fixed liability, your profits increase when a shorter-priced favourite loses.

Higher-risk staking plans – This staking plan, as mentioned last month, increased a profit to 207 points. It’s called the ‘1-4 Lay’ staking plan – see http://www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.php. I featured a ‘lay ladder’ last month. Here’s the basic idea: we lay all selections priced at odds of 3.5 or higher.

» Bet 1 – Lay Horse A at odds of 3.5 for £10. The horse wins. You lost £25 because as a layer you want the horse to lose.

» Bet 2 – Lay Horse B at odds of 3.5 to win £10 and £25 lost from Bet 1. Horse wins. You lose £87.50.

» Bet 3 – Lay Horse C at odds of 3.5 to win £10 and £25 lost from Bet 1 and £87.50 lost from Bet 2. The horse loses. You win.

Let’s look at the profit graph, which exemplifies the quick rewards but also the risk when we hit three losers:

A £100 betting bank quickly turned into £1,116. Then the moment of truth arrived: we hit a sticky patch of four consecutive losing lays. After the three-bet betting cycle ended, the betting bank was reduced to £453.

£623 is the profit figure for 2014: a reasonable return. The money lost when we hit four losers was OPM (other people’s money).

Higher-risk staking plans again boost the betting bank considerably. In 2015, this riskier staking plan has made a profit of £525.30: a drop from the £934.50 I mentioned last month, to a starting £100 betting bank. Higher risk means quicker profits but also quicker falls. Accept this and you can make a good profit for a while with a good run of luck.

Laying penalised runners on the All-Weather – I like this very simple laying idea. A penalised horse is a horse which won its last race and has been given, usu-ally, a 6lb or 12lb penalty to carry in its next race.

14

Take a look at the screenshot below. Colourbearer is the qualifier here. Note the ‘6x’ after the horse’s name? This signifies a 6lb penalty.

The lay strategy made a reasonable 20-point profit in 2014, which, considering the ease at which selections are made, is a step in the right direction. 2015’s figure is currently a 1-point loss. Nothing to get too worried about.

As far as a high-risk staking alternative is concerned, the staking plan referred to here quite a bit (http://www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.php) has again delivered in 2014. A £100 betting bank turned into £1,306. There was an occasion when the bank dipped below its origi-nal starting point.

The 1-4 staking plan has made a profit of 10 points to date in 2015, but was dealt a huge blow by a recent 9/1 winner. I have not set an odds limit for this strategy.

New ‘Home-grown’ betting Ideas...I introduced to you in a separate article the ‘3-5-8’ laying strategy which looks extremely promising. It is a strategy we can back-test (rather than back-fit) in order to test robustness.

I am also recording how favourites perform in 16+ runner races in the UK and Ireland. The reasoning should be obvious. The favourite needs to beat 15+ run-ners just to win, so laying would be first instinct here.

I also single out the race(s) of the day with the biggest field. Again, how does the favourite perform in these big fields?

I am also looking at the race with the biggest-priced Betting Forecast favourite of the day. Do these Racing Post Betting Forecast favourites lose more often in these apparently more competitive races? It seems they do, if my early conclusions are accurate.

From a footballing perspective, I have begun recording how selections I made at www.drt.club in the following categories performed this season. These categories are:

» Laying the Draw » Both Teams to Score » Lay the 0-0 Half-time Score. » Under 2.5 Goals » Over 2.5 Goals » Lay the 0-0 (normally second half)

I have a lot of work to do to collate these results, but

one or more of these might stand out as a singular bet-and-go strategy for the football. Of course, you will be the first to know, either here at the newsletter or at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.

There is also the never-ending quest for a greyhound racing profit-maker.

Now let’s see how the current crop of third-party sys-tems and tipsters are doing...

rEvIEWS:

Systems and Tipsters Update

Welcome to May’s Systems and Tipsters Update, a round-up of the rogues and the heroes in this

betting world of ours.Andy Bell Racing – As I said last month, the eye-catcher is a 452.77-point profit in the calendar year 2014 – January to December – and I think it is impor-tant to make that distinction as you will read later. This is another confidence-based tipster who tips between 2–10 points.At £58 per month, you’d have to insist upon 2014’s performance being replicated or bettered this 2015. A -14.26-point loss for 2015 (to the end of April 2015) is compounded by the subscription fees above. April saw a slowly creeping 8.36-point profit. Shoots of recovery? The problem recently has been too many 4 and 5-point bets not winning. This invariably takes its toll on the betting bank final figure. Remember the trick then folks: calendar year January–December results may be good, but check recent per-formance to see if the betting bank is stagnant. Today’s betting bank, for instance, remains only slightly higher than the bank in October 2014. Ever the optimist, the Flat season may herald a recovery.The Gambling Don – Another from www.betfan.com, also employing confidence staking of typically 4/5 points to win and 3 points each way. Like Andy Bell Racing, 2014 (the calendar year) was excellent with a 362-point profit. The fee is the same as Andy Bell’s and, as you’ll read, performance recently has been stagnant.A 113.54-point profit for January 2015 to April 2015 is excellent. Do remember though that today’s bet-ting bank is only slightly higher than the betting bank in May 2014, so in real terms there has been marginal growth, and very marginal at that.The members of 2015 will be delighted, but those join-ing in May 2014 may have already given up on ever seeing a profit sufficient to cover the hefty monthly



fees. As 2015 is looking rosier, I will continue to update for you.Each Way Earners – This service is now under the www.tipsterstreet.com banner (formerly Tipsters Ware-house). Lifetime membership is offered for this service and I want to warn you against long-term commitments with any horse racing tipsters of betting-related prod-ucts. Given the nature of the industry (it’s more like the Wild West, to be honest), tipsters will come and go. A bad run could see them disappearing faster than a Lib Dem MP’s election deposit. You have been warned. A 180-point lifetime profit since 11 January 2013 is good. But the betting bank reached 180 points profit on 19 July 2014, so you can surmise that it is not progress-ing in real terms. This is another reason these lifetime membership commitments are bad!A near 30-point loss for 2015 is also disappointing, and that accounts for two consecutive winners at odds of 7.00 and 8.00 decimal odds! Not good enough, I’m afraid, at the moment.Each Way Statman – http://winninginformationnet-work.com/eachwaystatman Would you pay £37 per month for a service in free fall? A 34-point loss for 2015 and a betting bank in rapid decline since October 2014, this is a highly inconsistent service. In 2015, January saw a 48.20-point loss, February saw a 53.55-point profit, March saw a 35.65-point loss and April a 12.85-point loss. The tipster providers, of course, are the eternal opti-mists. They herald a lifetime profit of 73.85 points, but this amount seems to be declining month on month. With July to October superb in 2014, I will sit and suffer until the 10th month. Leave well alone at the moment: as inconsistent as an exit poll. At least he’s keeping one of his promises on the marketing blurb: ‘I won’t promise you instant riches.’ Subscribers will be only able to afford instant noodles if this decline carries on.The Racing Professionals – http://www.theracing professionals.co.uk These are Flat season specialists and I’m keen to see if their results from 2012 onwards can be replicated. Do remember, these tipsters will have long losing runs. Heck, when you’re selecting horses at odds of 607.45 Betfair SP, then you know this is not an odds-on high-strike-rate service. I often talk about tolerating long losing runs in order to make profits: that’s the case here. It’s a faith-based ser-vice; faith that the tipsters will come out in October with a profit, as they have done in years past (although past performance, as ever, is no promise of future profits).Bets are win only, which surprises given the Betfair SP odds. This seems to work historically though. A 25-point profit this year to date is largely helped by

solitary winners such as Outback Ruler on 1 May at odds of 29.43, Among Angels at 23.08 and Arctic Feel-ing at Betfair SP odds of 30. These big-odds winners are needed. We’ve recently had a run of 55 losing bets. This is never advertised by tipsters, of course, but you must have this information to make a proper decision on the service.The All-Weather service equally relies on big-priced winners and stands at 43 points profit from 2015. A cost of £44.99 per month for the main service and £29.99 per month for the All-Weather service, on the face of it, looks reasonable. The problem is that, unless you have a healthy betting bank, you’ll have to bet small stakes in order to compensate for possible future 55-bet losing runs! A good service it seems albeit with practi-cal issues.Tom Nelson Racing – This win and each-way horse racing tipster, from www.bettinggods.com, uses between 1 and 6 points, based on his confidence in selections. Another fairly young service, so don’t go joining long term please, and at £29.95 per month the cost is reasonable. But as to performance?This is a service with promise. The negative is that it has only been going since June 2014, but the betting bank seems to be rising gradually over time. 2015 sees a 184-point profit already, helped no end by three consecutive winners at odds of 2.25, 5.5 and 21 decimal odds.This is the first time, then, that the bank has broken the 500-point profit barrier since inception. Rather like share trading, we should latch on to services making all-time highs!Well worth consideration currently and one I am keen to continue monitoring.Unity Racing Club – The headline at the website has me chuckling a little... A few weeks ago, they were pro-claiming ‘An INCREDIBLE +849 Points Profit In Just 5 Months’. Last month I recounted the headline as ‘An INCREDIBLE +717.08 Points Profit In Just 5 Months’. This month? The new headline reads ‘An INCRED-IBLE +699.12 Points Profit in Just 5 Months’! I have opened a betting book on what the points tally will read next month. Will this headline continue until there are no points left? The glass is never half empty at www.betfan.com.How many of you would have stopped in your tracks if you had visited the marketing page for the first time and read the most recent headline? It is enticing. But put into context, there is a gradual and alarming drop in profit, and it’s occurring at an alarming rate. A mar-keting page which stops recounting performance, as at November 2014, should sound alarm bells. If you can check results, folks, then put your deerstalker on and investigate. Do not take the headline as proof of

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consistency. The betting bank is the same as it was near November 2014.For £57 per month, this service is quickly swerved. I suppose Betfan would be shooting themselves in the foot if they shouted out ‘An INCREDIBLE ZERO Points Profit in the last 5 months to date’.Draw Day Demolition – www.drawdaydemolition.com. As I said last month, my personal confidence in this strategy ended when their back-the-draw method blew the betting bank in quick sharp time.All four other systems are operating currently at a loss. I am afraid this service is not worth joining in its current format. At £19.99 per month, no thanks. If this service profits, I will be holding a ‘congratulations for not blowing my other betting banks’ party.Value Football Betting – http://valuefootballbetting.com. A very interesting service full of potential, costing £37 per month, currently. A quick warning though: I would hold fire on joining all football services until the start of the new season for the major European leagues, including the Premiership. This applies equally to my own service at www.drt.club. You will get far more value from these services during August-May. The off-season leagues are of a different (and worse) calibre to the likes of La Liga, Seria A, the Bundesliga, and Premiership et al.This service uses software to analyse teams’ data and provide its own tissue price in a number of football markets, such as Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals, etc.These tissue prices are compared with Betfair’s odds and then apparent ‘value’ bets are highlighted if there is a significant discrepancy in the odds.There are three ‘Daily Best Bets’ recorded at the web-site. Their performance is good to date, albeit we have a small window of bets.

» First Half bets +19.40 points profit since 3 March to 12 May

» Match Odds Bets +16.36 points profit since 3 March to 12 May

» 90-Minute Goal bets +52.48 points since 3 March to 12 May

Losses are really manageable and that appeals.Another service, ‘Kevin’s Selections’, suffers from ‘valueitis’. Valueitis strikes all value-based services. You know the symptoms: long losing runs, hopeful eventual profit. Kevin’s Selections have poor perfor-mance for 2015: a 14-point loss for the year so far. More is needed to turn me onto value bets, at least from Kevin’s perspective.I do the service a great injustice, because I have not gone into the forums and football trading classes,

ebooks and lots lots more. I will be looking at this website in great detail once the season proper (August) begins. It is this period which will show this service in better light. I will also join www.goalprofits.com. Although it runs all year, I am keener on viewing the service from August onwards than during the off-season.Back Lucrative – www.backlucrative.com. This is an interesting horse racing tipping service. It is win only, which is a surprise given the high odds of some of the selections. I do like to see past results and we have them from August 2013.A 16.64% strike rate with the profit advertised tells you that this service looks to rely on the big-priced winner. There will be long losing runs inherent in a service with a near 17% strike rate. The longest run for this service since August 2013 was 36 bets. 2015 results have been positive with a 25.8-point profit in January, a 44.46-point profit in February and 17.1 points profit in March. I await an update on April and May results, and I will inform you when I get them.Banker Bets – http://www.banker-bets.com. This service picks bets at odds of between 1.1 and 1.47. You know I like my banker bets. I think it is a reasonable method of betting and is in stark contrast to value-based services.A 3.68-point profit in April keeps the profits going, and 2.39 points profit for March, with February being a breakeven month and 6.38 points profit for January. This all sees a profitable 2015. The above are level-stakes profits. These guys also put forward compounding 10% of a rolling betting bank. A great staking plan when the going is good, but losses are greater.There is no real pattern to the losing bets. I do note a couple of tennis win doubles. Now, from my perspec-tive, a win double is not a banker by any stretch of the imagination. You need two players to win rather than one.At £27 per month, the cost is reasonable. But you must stake enough, i.e. it seems as if £100 stakes would ensure a profit and cover subscriptions. I like ‘model-ling’, i.e. finding someone who is doing something relatively successful and mimicking them. So with the results fully available at the website, why don’t you note the successes and losses and try to replicate where these guys get their selections from?Banker Bets is making a profit, so kudos to them. I do think that you can do this yourself, particularly if you have read my series of banker bet articles on football and tennis.Banker bets are popular for obvious reasons. There tends to be a steady, comforting stream of winners and concomitant profit.

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