may 2011 final
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Indicators:
Challenges for the 7 Rivers
Region
I hardly have any idea about what I might say
today, so of course my employer and the
sponsors are not liable for what comes out of
my mouth.
Standard Disclaimer:
A Tip Jar
Do we have a health care
crisis?
We have a financing of health
care crisis.
0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Total Health
Spending
Medicare and
Medicaid
Ryan’s Cap
Percent of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Total Health
Spending
Medicare and
Medicaid
Ryan’s Cap
Percent of GDP
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
1960 1980 2010 2030
Th
ou
san
ds
Lifetime Medicare benefits Lifetime Medicare taxes
One-earner couple earning the average wage ($43,100 in 2010)
If you turn 65 in...
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.
2006
Wages
Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes
51.8%
Private Group Health Insurance
0.6%
3.8%
45.6%
4.1%
6.7%
56.3% of GDP
56.4% of GDP
Employee Contributions Increasing
Higher Deductibles
Lower Wage Growth
Employer Based Insurance
The rise of corporate
wellness programs.
Can we rein in the growth
of health care costs?
Expenditures = Price X Quantity
Costs?
Not Likely.
Can we rein in the growth
of health care expenditures?
Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
X
Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
X
~Robin Hanson
“Cut half of all medical spending”
We have a “do something” bias.
And we don’t use information provided.
Can’t Trust the Consumers
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Rising Incomes
Physician Salaries
Prescription Drugs
Government Intervention
Medical Malpractice/Litigation
Which is the most likely cause of rising health care costs...
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
To
tal e
xp
en
dit. o
n h
ea
lth
/ca
pita
, $
P
PP
GDP Per Capita $PPP
France
US
Korea
Copy other countries?
“If something can't go on forever, it
won't.“
~Herb Stein
We will be doing Health Care
reform for the rest of our lives.
~ Former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin
Sorry to be such
a downer.
Thanks.