Download - May 2011 final
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Economic Indicators:
Challenges for the 7 Rivers
Region
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I hardly have any idea about what I might say
today, so of course my employer and the
sponsors are not liable for what comes out of
my mouth.
Standard Disclaimer:
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A Tip Jar
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Do we have a health care
crisis?
We have a financing of health
care crisis.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Total Health
Spending
Medicare and
Medicaid
Ryan’s Cap
Percent of GDP
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Total Health
Spending
Medicare and
Medicaid
Ryan’s Cap
Percent of GDP
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$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
1960 1980 2010 2030
Th
ou
san
ds
Lifetime Medicare benefits Lifetime Medicare taxes
One-earner couple earning the average wage ($43,100 in 2010)
If you turn 65 in...
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.
2006
Wages
Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes
51.8%
Private Group Health Insurance
0.6%
3.8%
45.6%
4.1%
6.7%
56.3% of GDP
56.4% of GDP
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Employee Contributions Increasing
Higher Deductibles
Lower Wage Growth
Employer Based Insurance
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The rise of corporate
wellness programs.
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Can we rein in the growth
of health care costs?
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Expenditures = Price X Quantity
Costs?
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Not Likely.
Can we rein in the growth
of health care expenditures?
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Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
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Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
X
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Cancer
Heart Disease
Stroke
Car Accident
Diabetes
The Race to Death
X
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~Robin Hanson
“Cut half of all medical spending”
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We have a “do something” bias.
And we don’t use information provided.
Can’t Trust the Consumers
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- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Rising Incomes
Physician Salaries
Prescription Drugs
Government Intervention
Medical Malpractice/Litigation
Which is the most likely cause of rising health care costs...
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$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
To
tal e
xp
en
dit. o
n h
ea
lth
/ca
pita
, $
P
PP
GDP Per Capita $PPP
France
US
Korea
Copy other countries?
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“If something can't go on forever, it
won't.“
~Herb Stein
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We will be doing Health Care
reform for the rest of our lives.
~ Former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin
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Sorry to be such
a downer.
Thanks.