May 17th, 2010

Building

Resilient &SustainableCities in

TURKEY

Mustafa Alver, Operations Officer, World BankMalatya, Turkey– November 14, 2015

What do we mean by sustainable development?• Defined by the United Nations Brundtland Commission as “development

that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

• Weighing trade-offs between today’s and tomorrow’s consumption• Involving: Factors such as Land, Water, Air, Productivity, Efficiency,

Growth and Conservation – while also accounting for infrastructure costs• Population and economic growth are also key elements of sustainability:

How do we provide for present and future generations?• Cities are a lens through which we can view and act on sustainability

challenges

Framing the Questions onSustainable Development

Context• Rapid urbanization and shift to secondary cities• Increasing traffic congestion and air pollution• Weak urban planning framework and application• High energy dependency and reliance on imports

Relevance

Cities as a focus of Sustainable Development

• Modality for implementing elements of 10th National Development Plan, KENTGES, and other national strategies and plans

• Adding 14 new Metro Municipalities and expansion to provincial boundaries

Turkey’s Rapid Urbanization

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Argentina

Brazil

Republic of Korea

Mexico

Bulgaria

Turkey

Hungary

South Africa

Greece

Portugal

Georgia

China

Egypt

India

• Turkey’s rapid urbanization has transformed the country demographically. Urban population has grown from 25% (1950s) to 75% (today).

• Urbanization causes growth through productivity gains but also puts new pressures on cities

Spatial Distribution of Firms Established from 2007 to 2010

Can secondary cities leverage economic spillovers?

Economic shift with demographic shift

The “Upside” of Urbanization -- for Growth

• Structural: Massive shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services yields productivity gains

• GDP per capita doubles in Turkey from 1980 to the present

The “Upside” of Urbanization -- Sustainability Achieving urban density is a key policy measure to promote environmental sustainability On average, Turkish cities perform well; cities are dense and energy consumption is

modest, but growing with limited public transit options

Potential Downside: Housing AffordabilityShare of Rent and Utilities in Total Household Expenditure at high and low income household level

Meters of High Transit Capacity per capita

Source: TRACE Studies and Database, 2012Budap

est

Wars

aw Paris

New Yo

rk

Buchare

st

Belgrad

e

Saraj

evo

Rio de Jan

eiro

Samsu

n

Eskise

hir

AmmanBak

u

Gazian

tep

Yerev

an

Istan

bul

Ankara

0

50

100

150

200

250

197

178

152

92.5483.54

62.6 59.55

35.32 33.4726.27

16.1 15.3 13.74 10.8 10.13 5.52

Urban transport options have not kept pace with urban growth

Potential Downside: Congestion

Economic growth and car ownership rates are linked

Potential Downside: Emissions

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009100

110

120

130

140

150

160

EU-27

UK

Poland

Romania

RussiaTurkey

Motorization Rate Growth (Base year = 100)

Potential Downside: Unsustainable Path

Potential Downside: Loss of Green Space

Provisioning for green space: increasing urban land values are placing new pressures on city officials to develop land

Many Turkish cities have low Green Space/person ratios. Strengthened land use planning can improve this

Consumption of land is critical problem – planning is key

Many Turkish cities are down here.

Potential Downside: Consumption of FuelHigh Petroleum Intensity in Turkey

US Japan UK Germany France Turkey0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Annual consumption (tons) per GDP (USD)

Potential Downside: Pushing out development

Rapid population growth in secondary cities

Demand for high quality and larger housingAs density drives up housing prices in the

city center, residents move further to suburban areas for larger space, a trade-off with longer commuting

Causing SprawlAs cities grow they need to plan to avoid costly problems

What to do? Managing Urbanization is Key

Turkey municipal water performance compares well.

Market pricing results in reasonable consumption per capita, unlike in other countries

Institutional Role: Metropolitan Municipalities & Water Utilities

What to do? Innovation & the Private SectorUnlike many countries Turkey can benefit from its private sectorAnnual consumption (tons) per GDP (USD)

Source: TRACE Studies and Database, 2012

Emphasis on three dimensions of sustainability at the city level

Sustainable Cities Framework

Social Sustainability

Financial and Economic

Sustainability

Environmental Sustainability

Affordability, accessibility, safety for

all citizens

Mitigating air pollution, noise, greenhouse gas

Value-for-money of investments,

managing assets, stability of funding

Environmental Sustainability

Almost ¾ of energy use and GHG will come from cities

81% of urban energy demand increases will come from non-OECD cities

Turkey is an energy import dependent country with growing demand

Developing countries will triple their built-up area

Buildings alone account for 35-40% of global energy use

Transport accounts for 25-30% of energy demand

Potential Areas for Support

• Improving credit-worthiness (Shadow Credit Ratings)• Improving multi-year capital investment planning (CDP & Toolkit)• Strengthening intergenerational equity in finance (MF Handbook)• Providing long-term financing (Iller Bank, IBRD and other IFI

funds)• Conducing life-cycle costing for investments (ECO2 Cities

Handbook)• Strengthening cost recovery (Municipal Finance Credit

Enhancement TA)• Generating cost savings from energy efficiency gains (TRACE)• Achieving higher economic return on investments (WB advisory

services)

Financial Sustainability

Potential Areas for Support

• Citizen participation in GPS mapping of service needs• Support centers and facilities for ‘homeless’ children• Citizen report cards and service feedback mechanisms• Access to services of disadvantaged groups: physically disabled,

women, affordable transport for low income households

** Social Sustainability Diagnostics will identify key challenges at the city level and prospective solutions

Social Sustainability

Principles

• Design a Policy Instrument that enables implementation and monitoring of 10th National Development Plan, Energy Efficiency Law and Strategy, KENTGES, and other national plans and strategies

• Establish a Platform that enables effective investment programming

Sustainable Cities Project Concept

Modalities

• SCP will drive urban planning and investments • Multiyear CIPs will provide investment framework to

leverage IFI financing – as an alternative to “one-off” investments -- opportunities to work with the French Development Agency and EIB as cofinanciers

Building on Turkey’s Successes, Improving for the Future

Sustainable City Planning and Management Systems• Preparing Comprehensive Integrated Metropolitan Municipality

Plans (CIMMP)

• Develop strategic vision

• Spatial/land-use planning designations

• Environmental planning factors

• Assessment of housing stock, affordability and demand

• Urban transport planning

• Planning and provisioning for green space

• Infrastructure inventory with projected long-term needs

• Energy Efficiency Measures

• Preparation of multi-year capital investment plan (CIP)

• Development of GIS System to monitor and maintain infrastructure network

SCP: Component One

Municipal Investments within a SC Action Plan• Urban Transport: BRT/Municipal buses, TRAMs, Trolley buses,

road/corridor development, pedestrian walkways, bikepaths, municipal parking garages, intersection and choke-point improvements, synchronized traffic light systems, traffic management systems

• Energy Efficiency Investments: Public lighting, municipal building retrofitting, water supply systems, urban transport

• Water Supply and Wastewater: Water purification, water supply and sanitation network rehabilitation and extension, wastewater treatment plant (extension, upgrade or new facility)

• Solid Waste: Closing of uncontrolled dump sites, new sanitary landfills, waste-to-energy options, recycling

SCP: Component Two

Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency FocusWhat is TRACE?

A practical tool for conducting rapid assessment of energy use in cities to identify and prioritize sectors, and suggest specific energy efficiency interventions with 3 principal components:

1. A city energy benchmarking tool2. A process for prioritizing sectors that offer the greatest EE

potential3. A ‘playbook’ of tried and tested EE recommendations

Moving ForwardTHANK YOU

Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency FocusWhat is TRACE? The TRACE Tool

Moving ForwardTHANK YOU

Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency FocusWhat is TRACE? The TRACE Tool

• 59 Recommendations in total• Mix of strategic programs

and specific sector activities• 191 case studies with hyper-

links to other resources and tools

• Each recommendation ‘rated’ on three attributes: Energy Savings Potential, First Cost, Speed of implementation

Moving ForwardTHANK YOU

Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency FocusGaziantep TRACE Results

Energy Density of Potable Water Production in Gaziantep (kWh/m3)

Water system in Gaziantep was designed for 300,000 people and now serves 1,300,000 people

Potential yearly energy savings from Gaziantep Water System: $14 millionLife-cycle costing should be part of original designs and upgrading investments

About 7% of Gaziantep Metro Municipality’s Annual Budget could be saved.

Moving ForwardTHANK YOU

Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency FocusGaziantep TRACE Results

Municipal Buildings Electricity Consumption (kWh/m2) in Gaziantep

Retrofitting municipal buildings to improve energy efficiency would have direct benefits, while indirectly the municipality’s initiative can have a demonstration effect.

Potential Areas for Support

• Improve fiscal performance: Own-source revenues

• Reduce overdue arrears to creditors and state agencies

• Enhance credit-worthiness and access to market-based finance

Financial Sustainability

  Metro Municipality of Turkey 1

Municipal SectorAverage

Metro Municipality of Turkey 2

Metro Municipality of Turkey 3

  2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

Fiscal Performance                

Operating balance/operating revenue (%) 30.51 37.23 43.41 46.37 48.15 41.82 56.32 60.06

Overall results/Total revenue (%) -3.12 -14.16 3.91 -4.09 5.02 1.32 9.84 0.56

Debt                

Direct Debt servicing/Current revenue (%) 40.43 36.30 27.67 20.49 24.16 18.27 18.42 6.91

Direct risk/Current balance (x years) 2.80 5.34 2.27 3.55 3.2 4.5 0.7 0.8

Direct debt/current balance (x years) 2.11 2.38 2.00 2.56 3.2 4.5 0.7 0.8

                 

Potential Areas for Support

• Citizen participation in GPS mapping of service needs

• Support centers and facilities for ‘homeless’ children

• Citizen report cards and service feedback mechanisms

• Access to services of disadvantaged groups: physically disabled, women, affordable transport for low income households

** Social Sustainability Diagnostics will identify key challenges at the city level and prospective solutions

Social Sustainability

Social Sustainability Performance

Moving Forward

THANK YOU!

TEŞEKKÜRLER!